Cnotes National Football League Week # 17 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 17
January 1, 2016


Information is always the key to making a number in any sport, but probably none is more important than the NFL just because of the high limits and volume handled. The NFL lines are the most sound of any sport, but when Week 17 rolls around it puts bookmakers in an uncomfortable situation because they’re waiting for information on how long starters will play for popular teams that already have a date in the playoffs set. And then comes the dilemma of determining how much that information received is worth to the number.


In most cases, it’s the bettors that do the deciding on what the proper number is when getting the information which is why it’s not unusual to see rapid line movements similar to the pre-season.


A perfect example of how cautious the sports books are being this week is at Station Casinos where nine of the 16 games are circled -- $2,000 limit instead of the normal $20,000. If you know you’re going to get beat to the punch or aren't confident a sound number is being posted, there’s no need to give full limits.

Below is a look at the Early Week 17 opening numbers posted last Wednesday at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and where the line has been moved to based on playoff situation, injuries, rating adjustment following Week 16 results, market adjustments on Sunday night and then of course actual cash wagered.

NY Jets at Buffalo: The Bills opened -1.5 and then was re-opened with the Jets -1.5 on Sunday night because of the importance of the game for New York and Bills running back LeSean McCoy being listed as 'doubtful.' Bettors laid New York up to -3 because of ’having to win’ to make the playoffs, but Buffalo money has showed up pushing it back down to -2.5. From a power ratings perspective, N.Y. is only about 1.5-points better than Buffalo, and when factoring in McCoy, it’s about a 2-point differential. Buffalo's home field is worth 2.5, so it would seem the Westgate’s early number is closer to what the proper line should be. Is the Jets playoff situation really worth 4-points? The betting public and their early parlay leans apparently think it is, so the Jets -2.5 is the proper number because most laid it. But larger money grabbed the value with +3 at home. The Jets have won their past five games (4-0-1 ATS) while the Bills have won and covered the past four meetings versus New York.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Panthers opened -10 and were re-opened at -9.5 Sunday night before being bet up to -10.5 on Monday. Tampa Bay has failed to cover its past three games while Carolina is 1-3 ATS in its last four. Carolina needs to win this game to ensure home field advantage throughout, or have Arizona lose at home to Seattle.

New England at Miami: The Patriots opened -3.5 and were re-opened -8 Sunday night and it’s currently -10. Last week it looked like this could be a game where New England rested players, but following the loss at the New York Jets and Denver's MNF win, home field throughout the playoffs isn’t clinched yet. Miami has gone 0-8 ATS in its last eight against AFC East teams, including a 37-10 average loss to New England in its past two meetings.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: The Bengals opened -10 and it’s now -9. Baltimore comes off a huge win over Pittsburgh last week behind newly signed QB Ryan Mallett. Cincinnati can become the No. 2 seed even with a loss if Denver loses and Kansas City wins because then the Chiefs would be AFC West champs and Cincy beat them head-to-head this season. The Bengals are an amazing 12-2-1 ATS this season.

New Orleans at Atlanta: No early line posted due to QB Drew Brees status, but he‘s expected to play and Atlanta was opened -4 on Monday and the line shot up to -5.5 on Thursday. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings.

Jacksonville at Houston: No early line posted due to Houston's QB situation, but Brian Hoyer is expected to start. Houston opened -6 and it’s currently -6.5. The Texans need to win this game to clinch NFC South to avoid all kinds of odd tie-breaking procedures issues should Indianapolis win against Tennessee.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The Steelers opened -9.5 and it’s currently -10.5. Pittsburgh needs to win and hope Buffalo beats the N.Y. Jets to make playoffs. Austin Davis will start at QB for Cleveland.

Oakland at Kansas City: Kansas City opened -7 and it’s now -7 (-120). KC can win the AFC West with a win and a loss by Denver. Oakland is looking for its first .500 season since 2011 while the Chiefs ride a nine game winning streak (7-2 ATS).

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Colts opened -3, but with QB Matt Hasselbeck likely out, no line has been posted. Indy has a slim chance of making playoffs with a Houston loss, but those chances appear to be even slimmer since QB duties will be in the hands of Ryan Lindley or Josh Freeman who were both signed early in the week with each getting first string reps in practice.

Washington at Dallas: Opened Pick ‘em and it’s now DAL -4 due to WASH expecting to rest starters after clinching the NFC East following its season-high three game win streak. Kellen Moore will start at QB for Dallas and QBs not named Romo for Dallas have gone 1-10 this season. The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in last eight games at Dallas including last season behind QB Colt McCoy who is expected to get most of the snaps on Sunday.

Detroit at Chicago: The Bears opened -1.5 and its currently -1. Detroit has won the past five meetings.

Philadelphia at NY Giants: The Giants opened -2.5 (-120) and its currently -3.5 (EVEN) with none of the movement having to do with Chip Kelly being fired.

Minnesota at Green Bay: The Packers opened -5.5 and was re-opened Sunday night at -3 following GB getting blasted 38-8 at Arizona and Minnesota blowing out its past two opponents by a 43-17 average score. On Friday morning Green Bay was moved to -3.5 (EVEN). Whoever wins this game will be NFC North champions and get the No. 3 seed. Minnesota has gone 12-3 ATS this season.

San Diego at Denver: The Broncos opened -9.5 and it’s currently -9. If Denver wins they get the No. 2 seed and have an outside shot at being No. 1 if Miami can somehow pull off a miracle against New England. Although San Diego is only 1-6 on the road this season, they have covered its last three games overall and last five on the road.

St. Louis at San Francisco: The Rams opened -2.5 and was re-opened -3.5 on Sunday and hasn’t moved all week. St. Louis has won and covered its last three games while San Francisco lost and failed to cover its last three.

Seattle at Arizona: The Seahawks opened -2.5 and was re-adjusted to Arizona -3.5 on Sunday night following Week 16 results which included Carolina losing to Atlanta, making the No. 1 seed still a possibility for the Cardinals. On Monday the number was bet up to -4.5. On Tuesday, it was quickly moved past the dead numbers of -5 and -5.5 up to -6 and finally -6.5 where it still sits. It’s possible with nothing to gain that Seattle could rest some starters while Arizona coach Bruce Arians has said he’ll rest no one.

Happy New Year everyone!

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 17
January 2, 2016




NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Patriots are 13-0 ATS (15.27 ppg) since Nov 03, 2002 on the road after a loss where they allowed at least 22 first downs.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Bears are 0-12-2 ATS (-9.36 ppg) since Dec 18, 2011 at home after a game with a rushing touchdown.


TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:


-- The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS (11.17 ppg) since Sep 27, 2015 after a game in which Doug Baldwin had at least 5 receptions.


NFL CHOICE TRENDS:


-- The Dolphins are 0-13 ATS (-16.50 ppg) since Jan 03, 2010 off a game as a favorite where they threw for at least 250 yards.


-- The Eagles are 11-0 OU (10.27 ppg) since Sep 29, 2013 after a loss where they allowed more points than expected.


TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:


-- Teams are 0-7 OU since October 2011 coming off a home game where Darren Sproles had at least 40 receiving yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Bears are 10-0 OU (9.55 ppg) since Nov 20, 2011 after a win in which they were outgained by their opponent.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Panthers are 0-10 OU (-7.65 ppg) since October 2006 as a home favorite off a game as a favorite where they allowed more points than expected.


SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:


-- Teams that have thrown at least 3 TD passes in back-to-back games are 149-116-5 OU. Active on Washington and New Orleans.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Lions are 0-11 ATS on grass when the line is within 3 of pick and they are off a multiple-point win.


NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Rams are 0-8 OU when one game under 500 after Week 8.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 17
January 2, 2016


The ‘under’ produced a 9-7 record last weekend and that record could’ve been better if it wasn’t for some meaningless scores. For those who had the ‘over’ in the Chicago-Tampa Bay and Houston-Tennessee games, we’re glad to see you received some belated holiday gifts this past Sunday. And for those on the other side of those results, we apologize and hope you keep grinding. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 119-117-4.


Week 17 Approach


Handicapping the final week of the regular season is often a toss-up for both sides and totals.


WEEK 17 TOTAL RESULTS (2010-2014)
Year Over/Under
2014 6-10
2013 6-10
2012 8-8
2011 9-7
2010 7-9


Based on the above, you can see that the ‘under’ has gone 44-36 (55%) that past five seasons and that includes a 20-12 (63%) mark the last two years. Based on playoff implications, you have five meaningless matchups on tap for Week 17 and it’s fair to say it’s six.


New Orleans at Atlanta
Washington at Dallas
Detroit at Chicago
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
St. Louis at San Francisco
Tennessee at Indianapolis (Colts have an outside shot to make the playoffs)


My thinking with these games is that most coaches will just roll the ball out and let the teams go after it offensively.


Last Sunday, we had three meaningless games and the ‘over’ went 3-0 albeit the Bears-Bucs winner was fortunate:
Detroit 32 San Francisco 17 (Over 49)
New Orleans 38 Jacksonville 27 (Over 53)
Chicago 25 Tampa Bay 21 (Over 44)


Based on the numbers for Week 17, I’d probably toss out any leans on the Redskins-Cowboys and Rams-49ers, but the three other games all have two things in common. They have capable quarterbacks and defensive units that are suspect, which is why two of the totals are listed in the fifties.


Divisional Angles


Here is my quick handicap on nine of the 10 other meaningful matchups for Week 17.


N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Bills dropped the Jets 22-17 in the first meeting and the ‘under’ (41 ½) connected due to miscues by the New York offense. This total opened 44 and has dropped to 41. The Jets defense has played better and faces a short-handed attack for the Bills.


New England at Miami: The ‘under’ is 5-2 the last seven in this series and both clubs enter this game banged up. The Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 in their last five but Miami (19.3 PPG) can’t score lately and I don’t expect that to change Sunday.


Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Panthers blasted the Buccaneers 37-23 in Week 4 and the ‘over’ (40 ½) hit easily. This week’s total (47) seems inflated and hard to imagine Carolina pressing the issue once they get the lead against an inconsistent Tampa Bay offense (22.1 PPG).


Baltimore at Cincinnati: The ‘over’ is 3-1 the last four in this series but those results should be overlooked with backup quarterbacks on display this week. Bengals are 2-0 to the ‘under’ with A.J. McCarron under center while the Ravens haven’t are averaging 13.3 PPG their last four.


Jacksonville at Houston: Possible shootout here based on the defensive numbers for the Jaguars (27.9 PPG) and Houston does get Brian Hoyer back at QB. These teams haven’t seen a total this high since 2011 and that also tells me to lean to the high side.


Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Prior to last week’s lackluster effort and Baltimore, the Steelers offense was rolling. They should get back on track this weekend versus the Cleveland secondary but can the Browns do enough with Austin Davis? The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six encounters between the pair.


Oakland at Kansas City: This series was once a great ‘under’ bet but the ‘over’ has cashed in four straight meetings. The Chiefs quietly own the second best scoring defense (18 PPG) in the league and the Raiders have been surprisingly better defensively on the road (22.9 PPG) than at home (27 PPG).


San Diego at Denver: Low total (41) for this series and hard to lean high based on the ‘under’ results (5-1-1) for Denver at home this season and their style under backup QB Brock Osweiler. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head battles and that includes Denver’s 17-3 win at San Diego in Week 13.


Seattle at Arizona: The Cardinals ripped the Seahawks 39-32 in mid-November and that total closed at 43 ½. This week’s number is 47 and many believe Seattle could lay up in this game knowing that it’s in the playoffs already and will be on the road next weekend regardless of this outcome. Arizona’s defense has only surrendered 12.2 PPG in its last five, which has helped the ‘under’ go 4-1.


Under the Lights


We’ve reached the final primetime game of the regular season as the Vikings and Packers square off for the NFC North division. The ‘under’ has gone 29-21 (58%) in night games this season and both Minnesota (2-1) and Green Bay (3-2) have helped that cause.


This game opened at 48 ½ and has dropped down to 45 ½ as of Saturday morning. In the first meeting between the pair, Green Bay ran past Minnesota 30-13 on the road and the ‘under’ (45) connected.


The Packers were known to be a great ‘over’ bet in recent seasons but the club has watched the ‘under’ go 10-5 this season and that includes a 6-1 mark at Lambeau Field. Minnesota has also leaned to the ‘under’ (10-4-1) this season but as I noted in last week’s piece, the Vikings have put up some crooked numbers on offense under Zimmer towards the end of the season and the ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run entering this game.


The last two games between the pair at Lambeau Field have both went ‘over’ the number and Green Bay has put up 23-plus points in nine straight home meetings against the Vikings.


For those looking for seasonal angles on the last game of the regular season, listed below are the matchups dating back to 2008.


2014 – Pittsburgh 27 vs. Cincinnati 17 (Under 49)
2013 – Philadelphia 24 at Dallas 22 (Under 54 ½)
2012 – Washington 28 vs. Dallas 18 (Under 48)
2011 – N.Y. Giants 31 vs. Dallas 14 (Under 48)
2010 – Seattle 16 vs. St. Louis 6 (Under 42 ½)
2009 – N.Y. Jets 37 vs. Cincinnati 0 (Over 33 ½)
2008 – San Diego 52 vs. Denver 21 (Over 50)


The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight SNF Finales and six of the last seven games that have been flexed to the Sunday Night spot have been decided by double digits.


Only one road team has manage to win this game and the Eagles barely defeated the Tony Romo-less Cowboys.


Fearless Predictions


The holiday weekend cost us $220 and the Bears-Buccaneers loss was tough to stomach plus the Falcons didn’t help the cause -- again. It wasn’t a disaster of a season but certainly not profitable ($1,020) after 16 weeks. Let’s finish strong and head to the playoffs. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year!


Best Over: Jacksonville-Houston 45 ½


Best Under: Baltimore-Cincinnati 41 ½


Best Team Total: Over 29 Steelers


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 44 New Orleans-Atlanta
Under 56 New England-Miami
Under 46 ½ St. Louis-San Francisco

 

[CNOTES]

Week 17 Tip Sheet
January 2, 2016


Jets (-3, 41 ½) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST


One year ago, Rex Ryan led the Jets to a 4-12 record and last place in the AFC East. Ryan was let go and one season later, New York is one victory away from clinching its first playoff berth since 2010. The former Jets’ coach crossed over inside the division to patrol the Bills’ sideline in 2015, as Buffalo looks to play the role of spoiler. The Bills (7-8 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) go for back-to-back wins for just the second time this season after holding off the Cowboys last Sunday, 16-6 as 6 ½-point favorites. Buffalo knocked off New York in its first meeting at Met Life Stadium, 22-17, as the Bills built a 22-3 lead prior to a pair of Jets’ second half touchdowns.


Following a 5-5 start to the season, New York (10-5 SU, 8-5-2 ATS) has run off five straight victories, capped off by a 26-20 overtime triumph over New England last Sunday. The Jets have stepped up defensively during this winning streak, allowing 20 points or less in each of these victories, while cashing the ‘under’ in each of their past two road games. New York has lost the previous two visits to Ralph Wilson Stadium, as the Jets were blown out by the Bills in Detroit last November with the game moved out of Buffalo due to poor weather.


Jaguars at Texans (-6 ½, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


The AFC South race has been a fight to the finish, but Houston (8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS) controls its own destiny heading into Week 17. The Texans attempt to sweep the Jaguars after winning at Jacksonville in mid-October, 31-20 as 2 ½-point underdogs. Quarterback Brian Hoyer made his first start of the season for Houston in that win, throwing for 293 yards and three touchdowns. Hoyer returns to the starting lineup after missing the last two games with a concussion, as Houston picked up a pair of road divisional victories at Indianapolis and Tennessee.


For the fifth consecutive season, Jacksonville (5-10 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) has lost at least 10 games, coming off a 38-27 at New Orleans. The game wasn’t as close as the final score indicated as the Jaguars fell behind, 24-6 at halftime to suffer their sixth road loss in seven tries. Jacksonville has drilled the ‘over’ in four of the previous five contests, while hitting the ‘over’ in five of seven games away from Everbank Field. Gus Bradley’s team has lost six consecutive road games against AFC South foes with the last away divisional victory coming at Houston in 2013.


Steelers (-11, 47) at Browns – 1:00 PM EST


Pittsburgh (9-6 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) had the inside track at a Wild Card berth heading into Week 16 at lowly Baltimore. However, the banged-up Ravens stunned the Steelers as 11-point home underdogs, 20-17, limiting Pittsburgh to its lowest point total since a Week 8 home loss to Cincinnati (16-10). Pittsburgh’s four-game ‘over’ streak came to an end in Week 16, as Mike Tomlin’s team looks to bust out of a 1-3 SU/ATS road slump dating back to October. The Steelers routed the Browns in their first meeting at Heinz Field by a 30-9 count in November, as Ben Roethlisberger threw three touchdown passes off the bench.


The Browns (3-12 SU, 6-9 ATS) are tied with the Titans for the worst record in football, as a Cleveland loss coupled with a Tennessee victory will give the Browns the top pick in May’s NFL Draft. Former first round pick Johnny Manziel won’t play in the season finale as he is sidelined with a concussion, opening the door for Austin Davis to start at quarterback. Mike Pettine’s squad has won just twice at home this season, beating Tennessee and San Francisco, while allowing 70 points in two divisional home losses to Baltimore and Cincinnati.


Raiders at Chiefs (-7, 43 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


The best turnaround story in the NFL this season comes out of Kansas City (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) as the Chiefs go for their 10th straight win following a 1-5 start. Andy Reid’s club has allowed 14 points or less seven times in this span, but the Chiefs have failed in their last two home wins over the Browns and Chargers as a double-digit favorite. Kansas City has dominated in the role of a single-digit favorite, cashing in seven of eight opportunities, including in a 34-20 triumph at Oakland last month as three-point chalk.


The Raiders (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) have made plenty of strides in Jack Del Rio’s first season as head coach by winning four games away from the Black Hole. Oakland has alternated wins and losses in each of the past six contests, coming off a 23-20 overtime victory over San Diego on Christmas Eve, but failed to cash as four-point favorites. The Raiders own a solid 4-1 ATS record in its past five road contests, while looking to finish off a three-game road sweep inside the division after winning at San Diego and Denver this season.


Seahawks at Cardinals (-6, 47) – 4:25 PM EST


The top two teams in the NFC West are heading to the playoffs, as this matchup only has seeding ramifications. Arizona (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) has an outside chance of grabbing home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, needing a victory along with a Carolina loss to Tampa Bay. The Cardinals topped the 31-point mark for the ninth time this season in last Sunday’s 38-8 rout of the Packers as six-point favorites. Bruce Arians’ squad covered at home for the first time since Week 3 against San Francisco, while the Cardinals have gone ‘under’ the total in three of the past four games at University of Phoenix Stadium.


The two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) could end up finishing with the sixth seed if they lose at Arizona. Seattle won both meetings last season with Arizona, but the Cardinals knocked off the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field in mid-November, 39-32 as three-point underdogs. Pete Carroll’s team had its five-game winning streak snapped in last Sunday’s 23-17 home loss to the Rams as 11 ½-point favorites. The Seahawks have won four consecutive away games, while limiting each opponent to 12 points or less.

 

[CNOTES]

Vikings, Packers meet in GB
January 1, 2015




MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10-5) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-5)


Sportsbook.ag Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 45.5


The Vikings and Packers will be battling for the NFC North when the two teams meet in Green Bay on Sunday.


The Vikings have looked unstoppable over the past two weeks, winning 38-17 at home against the Bears and following it up with a 49-17 victory over the Giants in Minnesota a week later. The team has won three of its past five games SU and has covered in three straight contests and four of its past five. It does, however, face a Packers team that won the last meeting between these teams 30-13.


Green Bay is not the same team it was in that Nov. 22 game, though. The Packers looked miserable in a 38-8 loss against the Cardinals in Week 16, turning the ball over four times and throwing for just 155 yards. Still, Green Bay has gone 8-1-1 in its past 10 meetings with Minnesota and will be feeling confident against a team it has dominated over the years.


There are trends that favor both teams in this one, as the Vikings are 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home this season. The Packers, meanwhile, are 16-7 ATS in games played on a grass field over the past two seasons. The Vikings are on fire recently and it has been their play on both sides of the ball that is allowing the team to win games so convincingly. Minnesota has allowed just 34 points over the past two weeks and will need to find a way to limit a Packers team that is struggling offensively coming into this one. If the Vikings can keep Aaron Rodgers in line then they should have a very good shot to win this one.


Offensively, Teddy Bridgewater has been avoiding mistakes over the past few weeks, throwing for six touchdowns with no picks in the past three games. He’ll need to keep playing smart football against a Packers defense that held the Vikings to just 13 last meeting. Adrian Peterson struggled in that game, rushing for just 45 yards on 13 carries. He did find score a touchdown, but he also lost a fumble. He’ll need to be a lot more effective on the ground on Sunday.


Green Bay was completely embarrassed in Arizona last week and Aaron Rodgers played one of the worst games of his career. He was just 15-for-28 with 151 yards and threw for just one touchdown with one interception. He also lost two fumbles in the game and just cannot afford to turn the ball over so much for his team. A lot of it wasn’t Rodgers’ fault, though. His offensive line did not provide much protection and it will need to be a lot better on Sunday.


Defensively, the team will need to be a lot better as well. The Packers allowed 121 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 26 carries in Week 16. They’ll be going up against the best running back in football in this division-deciding contest, so they will need to figure out a way to stop the rushing attack. If Adrian Peterson runs all over Green Bay then the team will have a tough time of defeating a Vikings group that has not been beating itself lately.

 

[CNOTES]

Essential Week 17 betting notes for NFL Sunday


Pittsburgh needs to beat the Browns and have the Buffalo Bills knock off the New York Jets in order to earn a wild card spot.


New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 42)


* Led by quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is 276 passing yards shy of his first 4,000-yard season, New York knocked off New England 26-20 in overtime a week ago to move to the brink of the playoffs.


* The Bills have the edge in recent head-to-head meetings with the Jets, going 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in the last four.




New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+10, 47)


* New England needs to win or see AFC West champion Denver fall to San Diego in order to clinch the top seed in the conference.


* The AFC East cellar-dwelling Dolphins aren't finishing the season with any semblance of strength, having dropped three in a row and seven of nine SU and six-straight and eight of nine ATS.




New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5, 53)


* The Saints don't necessarily close the season on a high note at the betting window, going just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 17.


* The home team has had a decided edge in this series, going 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between the two rivals. The Falcons are currently tabbed as 5.5-point chalk for the regular season finale.




Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-10, 41.5)


* Baltimore QB Ryan Mallet threw for a career-high 274 yards in his team debut as the Ravens took the Pittsburgh Steelers’ destiny out of their own hands with a 20-17 victory last week.


* Bengals QB AJ McCarron is completing 67 percent of his throws and has recorded four touchdowns and two interceptions in the last three games, but Cincinnati has scored a total of nine points in the second half of the last two contests.




Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+11, 47)


* Pittsburgh needs to beat the Browns and have the Buffalo Bills knock off the New York Jets in order to earn a wild card spot, and the Steelers are concentrating on their part of that equation. “There's a scenario that hasn't transpired in order to get in the dance,” Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin told reporters. “But the other part of that scenario is us winning," Tomlin said. "I'm not looking for comfort. I'm just trying to meet the challenges of this week. You set yourself up for failure if you view it any other way."


* The Browns have note fared well against teams from within ths division this season, going just 1-4 SU and ATS against the AFC North.




Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5, 45.5)


* Jags QB Blake Bortles can set a club record Sunday as he needs 179 passing yards to eclipse Mark Brunell's single-season mark of 4,367, which he totaled in 1996. He has thrown at least two TD passes in nine of his last 11 games and is one of three quarterbacks in league history (Dan Marino and Matthew Stafford) to record 35 scoring tosses in a season while under the age of 24.


* The Texans have won eight of their last 10 meetings with the Jaguars but are just 5-4-1 ATS in those 10.




Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (Off, Off)


* Zach Mettenberger, who was 24-for-51 for 234 yards in last week's blowout loss to Houston, will most likely get the start again at quarterback for Tennessee, which has just one win since Nov. 8. Mettenberger, however, will be without his top target, Kendall Wright, who re-injured his MCL in last week's loss.


* Indianapolis has to win and needs victories by Jacksonville, Buffalo, Miami, Baltimore, Atlanta, Oakland, Denver and Pittsburgh to earn a playoff berth.




Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (PK, 45.5)


* A horrific start brought Jim Caldwell's job security into question, but the Lions have won two in a row and five of seven to put themselves in position to escape the NFC North cellar should they record a sixth straight victory versus their division rivals.


* Home hasn't provided much comfort for Bears backers. In their previous 29 home games, the Bears have gone just 7-21-1 ATS.




Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 39.5)


* Despite having nothing on the line, Redskins coach Jay Gruden on Thursday said quarterback Kirk Cousins will get the start against the Cowboys. "All our guys are starting," Gruden said. "How I substitute throughout the course of the game will be dependent on how we're doing health-wise and the situation of the game."


* One of the few bright spots for the Cowboys has been the play of running back Darren McFadden, who has rushed for 100 yards in five of his last 10 starts and is three yards from reaching 1,000. Dallas ranks fifth in the league against the pass, yielding an average of 223 yards.




Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3.5, 51)


* Sam Bradford is finishing the season on a high note, following up his 361-yard, two-touchdown performance versus Arizona with 380 yards and a score against the Redskins.


* Team co-owners John Mara and Steve Tisch have not publicly commented on the job security of Tom Coughlin, while the 69-year-old coach himself dismissed that line of questioning Thursday in an effort to focus on the regular-season finale. "I won't let myself go in those other directions because we have a job to do, and that's what we're going to do," Coughlin told reporters. "All these other issues will clear up in time, but not before then."




St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+3, 37)


* Hardly considered flashy, Case Keenum's efficient passing ways have enabled Jeff Fisher to move on from offseason acquisition Nick Foles and hand the keys to the 27-year-old. "We're having fun," said Keenum, who has completed just 14 passes in each contest of the team's winning streak - including last week's 23-17 victory over Seattle. "We're playing football. We've got nothing to lose. ... I think that's the mindset our guys have got."


* Missouri native Blaine Gabbert isn't placing any extra emphasis on facing the team he watched with his family as season ticket holders. "No, not at all," the 26-year-old Gabbert told reporters. "It's another division game. It’s a big game for both sides regardless of the situation that we put ourselves in up to this point."



Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-10.5, 46)


* It’s been far from a lost season for Tampa Bay, thanks to an encouraging rookie season by top pick Jameis Winston (3,717 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 13 interceptions) and a bounce-back campaign from Doug Martin (1,354 rushing yards, six TDs). The Buccaneers have had a tough time turning drives into points, though, and have committed five turnovers in their last two games and 24 this season – including a season-high five in a 37-23 loss to Carolina in Week 4.


* The Carolina Panthers no longer are playing to preserve a perfect season, but they still have plenty on the line. The Panthers can clinch the NFC’s top seed and home-field advantage through the conference championship game with a win Sunday.




Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 47)


* The Seahawks, who had a five-game winning streak snapped by the St. Louis Rams last week, have locked up a playoff berth and will be on the road for the first round of the postseason.


* The Cardinals have ripped off nine consecutive victories to set a franchise record for wins and already have wrapped up the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.




San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10, 41.5)


* Following its bye in Week 10, San Diego was limited to a field goal in three of its next four games and can match the franchise's worst record since a 4-12 mark in 2003. Philip Rivers has managed to put up some big numbers amid the carnage and can eclipse the franchise single-season record of 4,802 yards (Dan Fouts, 1981) by throwing for 239 yards Sunday, but he was limited to 202 in the earlier meeting with the Broncos.


* Denver needs a win and a loss by New England at Miami to snag the top overall seed in the conference, but it also can lose the AFC West title with a loss and a victory by Kansas City.




Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 43.5)


* The Raiders attempt to finish with a winning record on the road, where they have won two straight to improve to 4-3. The Raiders have gone 5-2 ATS away from home.


* Kansas City is the first team in 45 years to qualify for the postseason after beginning with a 1-5 record have won four of its last five meetings with the Raiders, including a 34-20 victory at Oakland in Week 13.




Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3, 45.5)


* While both teams have already secured berths in the postseason, the ramifications will be huge: The winner will host a wild card team in the first round of the playoffs while the loser will hit the road as either the fifth or sixth seed.


* Aaron Rodgers has won 10 of his last 11 versus the Vikings, throwing for 28 touchdowns and three interceptions.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Sunday, January 3




The Jets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Buffalo Bills.




The home team is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings between the Patriots and Dolphins.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Sunday, January 3




Double-digit NFL faves 10-12 ATS on season but games involving a spread of 10 or more points are 5-17 Over/Under mark – 77 percent Under.




Packers 4-7-1 ATS off loss of 10 or more points since Rodgers took over as QB in 2008. Green Bay lost 38-8 to ARZ in Wk 16. Now -3 vs MIN.




Josh Freeman expected to start at QB today for Colts. He hasn't thrown an NFL pass in over 2 years. Colts -4 vs TEN

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 3


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS




NYJ at BUF 01:00 PM


BUF +3.0 BEST BET


O 41.0




BAL at CIN 01:00 PM


CIN -10.0


U 40.5




PIT at CLE 01:00 PM


PIT -11.5 BEST BET


U 47.0 BEST BET




NO at ATL 01:00 PM


ATL -5.5 POD


U 53.5




DET at CHI 01:00 PM


CHI +2.5


O 44.5




JAC at HOU 01:00 PM


HOU -5.5


O 45.0




PHI at NYG 01:00 PM


NYG -3.5 BEST BET


O 51.0




TEN at IND 01:00 PM


IND -4.0


U 39.0




WAS at DAL 01:00 PM


DAL -3.0


U 41.0 BEST BET




NE at MIA 01:00 PM


MIA +10.0 BEST BET

O 46.5 BEST BET




LATE GAMES UP LATER....GOOD LUCK !!

 

[CNOTES]

LAKE GAMES:




OAK at KC 04:25 PM


OAK +7.0


U 43.5 BEST BET




SEA at ARI 04:25 PM


ARI -6.0 BEST BET


O 47.0




SD at DEN 04:25 PM

DEN -10.0 BEST BET


U 42.0




TB at CAR 04:25 PM


CAR -10.5 BEST BET


O 44.5 BEST BET