Inside the Paint - Tuesday
December 7, 2015
All eyes will be on Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Tuesday as Golden State (22-0 straight up, 15-7 against the spread) looks to extends its NBA-record start to a season when it meets Indiana (12-7 SU, 12-7 ATS).
Oddsmakers opened the defending champions as 5 ½-point road favorites and VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia believes the Pacers have a legit chance as home underdog to snap the Warriors' 22-game winning streak.
He said, “The Warriors are more than halfway through a seven-game road trip that was expected to deliver their first loss. So far, they’ve enjoyed blowout wins over Charlotte and Brooklyn, covering the number, while surviving close calls at Utah and Toronto. Golden State lost last season’s trip to Indiana 104-98 back in February, but didn’t have Stephen Curry available as he missed his first game of the season due to ankle soreness. The Pacers were without Paul George, who has been brilliant in his return from a horrific compound fracture of both bones in his right leg. George comes off a career-high 48 points in a 122-119 OT loss to Utah, going 8-for-11 from 3-point range. Over the last 14 games, he’s averaged 29.4 points per game and has scored over 30 eight times.”
Saturday’s loss to the Jazz was the second straight for Indiana, who had gone 12 -2 both SU and ATS in its previous 14 games after starting the season 0-3.
Nobody has figured out a blueprint to stop Golden State thus far but Mejia believes Indiana will try to run with the unbeaten club at home and total (214) could go to the high side.
“I expect a fast-paced game as the Warriors have seen the ‘over’ come in six straight times, while Indiana has been involved in games that have gone ‘over’ the posted total in six of eight. George Hill is one of the better defenders at the point, so look for him to be on Curry throughout most of this one. George will likely see a lot of Draymond Green, who has averaged 15.5 points, 10.2 rebounds and 7.5 assists on the road trip so far,” said Mejia.
“To pull off the upset, Indiana is going to need a big night from wings Monta Ellis, CJ Miles or Rodney Stuckey. Ellis has been struggling, averaging just 6.0 points per game in three December contests, shooting 7-for-20 from the field. Miles shot 11-for-24 from 3-point range within that same span.”
What’s even more impressive about Golden State is that 12 of its 22 victories have come on the road and they’ve covered 75 percent (9-3) of those games.
Indiana has gone 6-2 both SU and ATS at home this season, which includes a current win streak of six straight from the Fieldhouse but it hasn’t played in front of its fans since Nov. 27. The first game back from a long road trip is never easy for any team, especially traveling back from the West Coast.
NBATV will provide national coverage of this game at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Along with this matchup, bettors have five other games to follow in the Association on Tuesday.
For those keeping track, favorites went 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS on Sunday and managed to churn out a 5-4 record on Monday but the underdogs produced a 6-3 mark versus the number.
Portland at Cleveland: Betting against the Cavaliers this season (13-7 SU, 7- 13 ATS) has been a winning proposition. Cleveland has only lost once at home (9-1) but it’s only managed to cover 40 percent (4-6 ATS) of those games. They limp into this game with three straight losses, but LeBron James and company should be ready to go after getting two days off and they face a Portland team on zero days rest as the Trail Blazers lost at the Bucks 90-88 on Monday. Including that loss, the Blazers are 4-8 SU and 6-7 ATS on the road. Plus, Portland is 1-4 both SU and ATS in back-to-back spots this season. The home team has won and covered three straight in this series and the Cavs (-9) are heavy favorites for Tuesday’s tilt. The ‘under’ has gone 3-0 during this span.
Houston at Brooklyn: After dropping seven of eight, the Rockets have quietly won five of six and they covered four of those wins. Houston opened as a four-point road favorite and it’s a pedestrian 4-4 both SU and ATS as a visitor this season. The Nets upset the Rockets 106-98 as 11-point road underdogs earlier this season on Nov. 11. That result was very surprising, considering Houston had captured eight of the previous nine encounters. Brooklyn was on an eye-opening 10-1 ATS run (5-6 SU) but it enters this game with two straight losses, both by double digits. The Rockets could sit Dwight Howard since they play at Washington on Wednesday and he’s normally been sitting at least one of the two games in back-to-back situations this season. The team is 2-4 without him in the lineup.
Oklahoma City at Memphis: Memphis went 3-1 both SU and ATS against Oklahoma City last season and it won the first meeting this season, capturing a 122-114 victory as a 2 ½-point home favorite on Nov. 16. The combined 236 points easily went ‘over’ (197 ½) and that result snapped a four-game ‘under’ streak between the pair. For this game, OKC is listed as a short road favorite (-2.5) and that sets off alarms for me to fade the Grizzlies. Memphis 6-14 SU and 7-12-1 ATS in its last 20 at home when catching points, and that includes a 0-2 mark this season. I wouldn’t bet the whole bankroll on OKC, especially the way it’s played recently (6-5 SU, 2-9 ATS). Not to mention that Billy Donovan's team is 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road this season.
Orlando at Denver: After losing eight in a row, Mike Malone and the Nuggets closed their five game road trip with a pair of wins albeit they came by a combined four points. Denver now faces a very sound team in Orlando, who just had a five-game winning streak snapped last Saturday at the L.A. Clippers, 103-101. When you see the Magic giving points on the road, you realize the oddsmakers are respecting Scott Skiles and company these days but you could still be hesitant to back them. For what it’s worth, Orlando is 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS as a ‘chalk’ this season. Also, the Magic have dropped five straight and eight of their last 10 meetings (3-7 ATS) to the Nuggets. Danilo Gallinari (knee) is listed as ‘questionable’ for Denver in this game.
Utah at Sacramento: The Kings are listed as two-point home favorites over the Jazz and if Utah had center Rudy Gobert (knee) available, I believe this line would be flipped the other way. Sacramento has only been favored four times this season and it’s gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in that role. The Kings are 5-7 both SU and ATS at home while the Jazz have produced a 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS record as visitors. The Jazz took three of four against the Kings last season but were 1-1 in their two road games. The total went 2-2 during this span. The total is hovering around 206 and that’s the highest number the Jazz have seen all season. Utah is 2-0 to the ‘over’ in its last two and has allowed 100-plus in three of the four games that Gobert has missed this season.
December 7, 2015
All eyes will be on Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Tuesday as Golden State (22-0 straight up, 15-7 against the spread) looks to extends its NBA-record start to a season when it meets Indiana (12-7 SU, 12-7 ATS).
Oddsmakers opened the defending champions as 5 ½-point road favorites and VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia believes the Pacers have a legit chance as home underdog to snap the Warriors' 22-game winning streak.
He said, “The Warriors are more than halfway through a seven-game road trip that was expected to deliver their first loss. So far, they’ve enjoyed blowout wins over Charlotte and Brooklyn, covering the number, while surviving close calls at Utah and Toronto. Golden State lost last season’s trip to Indiana 104-98 back in February, but didn’t have Stephen Curry available as he missed his first game of the season due to ankle soreness. The Pacers were without Paul George, who has been brilliant in his return from a horrific compound fracture of both bones in his right leg. George comes off a career-high 48 points in a 122-119 OT loss to Utah, going 8-for-11 from 3-point range. Over the last 14 games, he’s averaged 29.4 points per game and has scored over 30 eight times.”
Saturday’s loss to the Jazz was the second straight for Indiana, who had gone 12 -2 both SU and ATS in its previous 14 games after starting the season 0-3.
Nobody has figured out a blueprint to stop Golden State thus far but Mejia believes Indiana will try to run with the unbeaten club at home and total (214) could go to the high side.
“I expect a fast-paced game as the Warriors have seen the ‘over’ come in six straight times, while Indiana has been involved in games that have gone ‘over’ the posted total in six of eight. George Hill is one of the better defenders at the point, so look for him to be on Curry throughout most of this one. George will likely see a lot of Draymond Green, who has averaged 15.5 points, 10.2 rebounds and 7.5 assists on the road trip so far,” said Mejia.
“To pull off the upset, Indiana is going to need a big night from wings Monta Ellis, CJ Miles or Rodney Stuckey. Ellis has been struggling, averaging just 6.0 points per game in three December contests, shooting 7-for-20 from the field. Miles shot 11-for-24 from 3-point range within that same span.”
What’s even more impressive about Golden State is that 12 of its 22 victories have come on the road and they’ve covered 75 percent (9-3) of those games.
Indiana has gone 6-2 both SU and ATS at home this season, which includes a current win streak of six straight from the Fieldhouse but it hasn’t played in front of its fans since Nov. 27. The first game back from a long road trip is never easy for any team, especially traveling back from the West Coast.
NBATV will provide national coverage of this game at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Along with this matchup, bettors have five other games to follow in the Association on Tuesday.
For those keeping track, favorites went 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS on Sunday and managed to churn out a 5-4 record on Monday but the underdogs produced a 6-3 mark versus the number.
Portland at Cleveland: Betting against the Cavaliers this season (13-7 SU, 7- 13 ATS) has been a winning proposition. Cleveland has only lost once at home (9-1) but it’s only managed to cover 40 percent (4-6 ATS) of those games. They limp into this game with three straight losses, but LeBron James and company should be ready to go after getting two days off and they face a Portland team on zero days rest as the Trail Blazers lost at the Bucks 90-88 on Monday. Including that loss, the Blazers are 4-8 SU and 6-7 ATS on the road. Plus, Portland is 1-4 both SU and ATS in back-to-back spots this season. The home team has won and covered three straight in this series and the Cavs (-9) are heavy favorites for Tuesday’s tilt. The ‘under’ has gone 3-0 during this span.
Houston at Brooklyn: After dropping seven of eight, the Rockets have quietly won five of six and they covered four of those wins. Houston opened as a four-point road favorite and it’s a pedestrian 4-4 both SU and ATS as a visitor this season. The Nets upset the Rockets 106-98 as 11-point road underdogs earlier this season on Nov. 11. That result was very surprising, considering Houston had captured eight of the previous nine encounters. Brooklyn was on an eye-opening 10-1 ATS run (5-6 SU) but it enters this game with two straight losses, both by double digits. The Rockets could sit Dwight Howard since they play at Washington on Wednesday and he’s normally been sitting at least one of the two games in back-to-back situations this season. The team is 2-4 without him in the lineup.
Oklahoma City at Memphis: Memphis went 3-1 both SU and ATS against Oklahoma City last season and it won the first meeting this season, capturing a 122-114 victory as a 2 ½-point home favorite on Nov. 16. The combined 236 points easily went ‘over’ (197 ½) and that result snapped a four-game ‘under’ streak between the pair. For this game, OKC is listed as a short road favorite (-2.5) and that sets off alarms for me to fade the Grizzlies. Memphis 6-14 SU and 7-12-1 ATS in its last 20 at home when catching points, and that includes a 0-2 mark this season. I wouldn’t bet the whole bankroll on OKC, especially the way it’s played recently (6-5 SU, 2-9 ATS). Not to mention that Billy Donovan's team is 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road this season.
Orlando at Denver: After losing eight in a row, Mike Malone and the Nuggets closed their five game road trip with a pair of wins albeit they came by a combined four points. Denver now faces a very sound team in Orlando, who just had a five-game winning streak snapped last Saturday at the L.A. Clippers, 103-101. When you see the Magic giving points on the road, you realize the oddsmakers are respecting Scott Skiles and company these days but you could still be hesitant to back them. For what it’s worth, Orlando is 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS as a ‘chalk’ this season. Also, the Magic have dropped five straight and eight of their last 10 meetings (3-7 ATS) to the Nuggets. Danilo Gallinari (knee) is listed as ‘questionable’ for Denver in this game.
Utah at Sacramento: The Kings are listed as two-point home favorites over the Jazz and if Utah had center Rudy Gobert (knee) available, I believe this line would be flipped the other way. Sacramento has only been favored four times this season and it’s gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in that role. The Kings are 5-7 both SU and ATS at home while the Jazz have produced a 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS record as visitors. The Jazz took three of four against the Kings last season but were 1-1 in their two road games. The total went 2-2 during this span. The total is hovering around 206 and that’s the highest number the Jazz have seen all season. Utah is 2-0 to the ‘over’ in its last two and has allowed 100-plus in three of the four games that Gobert has missed this season.