Cnotes March National Basketball Association News-Trends-Picks !

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, March 3

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. WASHINGTON
Memphis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 7 games when playing Washington
Washington is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

7:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. BROOKLYN
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Chicago is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Brooklyn's last 20 games when playing at home against Chicago
Brooklyn is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Chicago

7:30 PM
NEW YORK vs. DETROIT
New York is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
New York is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Detroit is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against New York

7:30 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. MIAMI
Charlotte is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Charlotte is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Miami's last 18 games at home
Miami is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games

8:00 PM
UTAH vs. MILWAUKEE
Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah
Milwaukee is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Utah

9:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DENVER
Minnesota is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

10:00 PM
LA LAKERS vs. PORTLAND
LA Lakers are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games when playing on the road against Portland
LA Lakers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 8 games when playing LA Lakers
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

10:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. SACRAMENTO
New Orleans is 3-15-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing New Orleans

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, March 3

Road team trending in Minnesota/Denver meetings

When the Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Denver Nuggets they will be looking to continue a solid trend for bettors. In the Timberwolves and Nuggets last 26 meetings the road team is 20-5-1 against the spreads.

Nuggets bettors should also be weary as Denver is currently mired in a 2-10 ATS stretch that began on Feb. 5.


Arron Afflalo, Orlando - Ques Wed

Affalo suffered an ankle injury February 21st against the Knicks and has not played since. He is questionable to return Wednesday against the Rockets.


Parker returns, leads Spurs past Mavs

SAN ANTONIO - Guard Tony Parker lobbied to return to the San Antonio Spurs' lineup on Friday against Charlotte. His coach, Gregg Popovich, elected to hold Parker out one more game.

Popovich's decision worked out well for the Spurs. They beat Charlotte without Parker. Then Parker, back after missing six games, scored 22 points and handed out seven assists in 32 minutes as the Spurs defeated the Dallas Mavericks 112-106 Sunday night.

San Antonio (43-16) won for the sixth time in seven games. Dallas (36-25) has lost eight straight games to the Spurs.


Magic hand Sixers their 14th consecutive loss

ORLANDO, Fla. -- When opportunity knocked Sunday night, third-year forward Tobias Harris was more than happy to answer the door.

With veteran starting guards Arron Afflalo and Jameer Nelson sidelined due to injuries, Harris attacked from multiple angles, scoring a career-high 31 points to lead the Orlando Magic to a 92-81 victory over the hapless Philadelphia 76ers.

Philadelphia lost its 14th consecutive game.


Bulls on-fire ATS in the Eastern Conference

The Chicago Bulls have been stellar against the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine against Eastern Conference opponents, with the lone ATS loss coming to the Miami Heat.

The Bulls will look to continue their ATS dominance against the East when they travel to Brooklyn as Monday.


Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets - Prob Mon

Brooklyn Nets PG Deron Williams is nursing a nagging wrist injury but is expected to play Monday against the Bulls.


Bobcats request waivers on G Gordon

The Charlotte Bobcats requested waivers on guard Ben Gordon on Sunday.

Gordon is averaging 5.2 points, 1.4 rebounds and 1.1 assists in 14.7 minutes over 19 games this season for Charlotte.

"With the recent acquisition of additional backcourt depth to our roster, we believe this is in the best interests of both parties," general manager Rod Higgins said in a statement. "We want to thank Ben for his contributions over the past two seasons and wish him the best as he moves on in his career."

The Bobcats acquired Gordon from the Detroit Pistons along with a future first-round draft pick in June 2012 for forward Corey Maggette. Gordon averaged 10.0 points, 1.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 19.6 minutes over 94 games in two seasons with the Bobcats.

Charlotte's roster is at 14 players.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, March 3

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MEMPHIS (33 - 25) at WASHINGTON (31 - 28) - 3/3/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 78-60 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 39-26 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 85-66 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 45-28 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 104-75 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 46-71 ATS (-32.1 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 315-380 ATS (-103.0 Units) in home games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (33 - 26) at BROOKLYN (28 - 29) - 3/3/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 42-60 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in home games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 10-6 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 11-5 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (21 - 39) at DETROIT (23 - 36) - 3/3/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 24-36 ATS (-15.6 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
NEW YORK is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
NEW YORK is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
DETROIT is 37-51 ATS (-19.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 8-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 8-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (27 - 32) at MIAMI (42 - 14) - 3/3/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 84-118 ATS (-45.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 25-48 ATS (-27.8 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 42-58 ATS (-21.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 39-58 ATS (-24.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-3 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 10-0 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (21 - 38) at MILWAUKEE (11 - 47) - 3/3/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 24-34 ATS (-13.4 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 32-60 ATS (-34.0 Units) against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 27-42 ATS (-19.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 17-27 ATS (-12.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
MILWAUKEE is 65-93 ATS (-37.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 4-0 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 3-1 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (29 - 29) at DENVER (25 - 33) - 3/3/2014, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 6-5 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 7-4 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (20 - 39) at PORTLAND (41 - 18) - 3/3/2014, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 96-122 ATS (-38.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 26-40 ATS (-18.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PORTLAND is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
LA LAKERS are 118-78 ATS (+32.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 89-60 ATS (+23.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 5-3 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 5-3 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (23 - 36) at SACRAMENTO (20 - 39) - 3/3/2014, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-30 ATS (-15.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) against Pacific division opponents this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 150-202 ATS (-72.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after scoring 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-4 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 5-4 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Short Sheet

Monday, March 3

Memphis at Washington, 7:05 ET
Memphis: 45-28 ATS in road games
Washington: 46-71 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less

Chicago at Brooklyn, 7:35 ET
Chicago: 43-23 ATS in a road game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points
Brooklyn: 7-21 ATS in home games against Central division opponents

New York at Detroit, 7:35 ET
New York: 14-4 OVER after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread
Detroit: 6-14 ATS revenging a road loss

Charlotte at Miami, 7:35 ET
Charlotte: 18-8 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games
Miami: 23-43 ATS in home games off a home win against a division rival

Utah at Milwaukee, 8:05 ET
Utah: 33-19 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
Milwaukee: 32-60 ATS against Northwest division opponents

Minnesota at Denver, 9:05 ET
Minnesota: n/a
Denver: n/a

LA Lakers at Portland, 10:05 ET
LA Lakers: 25-42 ATS off a home win
Portland: 19-7 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread

New Orleans at Sacramento, 10:05 ET
New Orleans: 12-3 ATS after scoring 85 points or less
Sacramento: 8-19 ATS in home games after playing a game

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, March 3

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Which NBA refs should basketball bettors keep an eye on?
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One of the big stories coming out of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference was the advanced statistics used to track NBA referees.

The ability to record which refs call what fouls and which point in the game is valuable information for NBA players, coaches, GMs and, of course, NBA bettors. Even Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban chimed in on the benefits of advanced referee statistics at the conference in Boston this weekend.

"Anything that can influence the outcome of a game is important," Cuban said. "I wanted to be aware of each official's skill set to the best of our ability, so if somebody happens to call three seconds more often than another, someone else calls more falls than another, it can and sometimes does influence our game planning."

If you’ve been handicapping basketball for a while, you know that taking at look at which refs are more trigger happy – or should we say whistle happy - than others can give you a real edge when looking to bet NBA totals. A ref who makes a lot of calls tends to lean towards the Over, with more free throws and time stopped for those fouls.

Handicapping NBA officials is not as proven a practice as factoring home plate umpires into your MLB wagers. But with the expanding analytical tools used to track professional sports, it may reveal some prominent trends and patterns that could benefit whoever – teams, coaches, bettors – has access to them.

Our NBA referee statistics don’t go as in depth as those discussed at the Sloan conference, but they do let you know which officials have been siding with the home team more often than not, and also which ones have helped influence and Over and the Under the most.

Here’s a quick look our NBA referee statistics as of Sunday’s action:

Best NBA home refs

- Sean Corbin (28-17-0 ATS)
- Mike Callahan (27-18-1 ATS)
- James Williams (21-13-2 ATS)

Best NBA road refs

- Tony Brown (12-31-1 ATS)
- Matt Boland (15-31-0 ATS)
- Scott Foster (15-30-2 ATS)

Best NBA Over refs

- Eric Lewis (37-11 O/U)
- Tom Washington (30-16 O/U)
- Michael Smith (29-17 O/U)

Best NBA Under refs

- Ron Garretson (14-27 O/U)
- Tre Maddox (11-22 O/U)
- Rodney Mott (18-27 O/U)

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

New York at Detroit
The Knicks head to Detroit tonight following yesterday 109-90 loss to Chicago and carrying an 0-7 ATS record in their last 7 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Detroit is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Pistons favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-5). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, MARCH 3

Game 701-702: Memphis at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 123.588; Washington 119.120
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 4 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-2); Over

Game 703-704: Chicago at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 125.415; Brooklyn 121.992
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 3 1/2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Under

Game 705-706: New York at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 110.525; Detroit 118.761
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 8; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 5; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-5); Under

Game 707-708: Charlotte at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 121.605; Miami 127.126
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 5 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 12; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+12); Under

Game 709-710: Utah at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 111.535; Milwaukee 114.934
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3 1/2; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-1 1/2); Under

Game 711-712: Minnesota at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 122.420; Denver 111.193
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 11; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 5 1/2; 212 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5 1/2); Over

Game 713-714: LA Lakers at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 111.711; Portland 120.727
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 9; 226
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 12 1/2; 220
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+12 1/2); Over

Game 715-716: New Orleans at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 110.463; Sacramento 121.217
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 11; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 4; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-4); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, March 3

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Bank Shots: NBA's weekly betting news and notes
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For the week of Feb. 24-March 2.

Hottest ATS - Los Angeles Clippers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

Lob City is alive and well, as the Clippers rode the momentum of a big win in Oklahoma City to an unbeaten week. Los Angeles opened with a 123-110 victory in New Orleans, then returned home and clamped down on defense in back-to-back triumphs over the Houston Rockets and Pelicans. The strong bounceback following an 0-3 ATS stretch will be put to the test Wednesday as the Clippers visit a Phoenix Suns team that remains one of the top surprises in the league.


Coldest ATS - New Orleans Pelicans (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)

Injuries to Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday have finally caught up to the Pelicans, who suffered four straight double-digit losses as their overall skid reached seven. In addition to a pair of losses to the Clippers, New Orleans fell 108-89 in Dallas and 116-104 in Phoenix to drop to 0-3 over their five-game road trip. With Holiday out for the season and Anderson still without a timetable, things could get even uglier in the Big Easy as the team's depth continues to be tested.


Best Over play - Milwaukee Bucks (1-2 SU, 3-0 O/U)

With nothing left to play for but a prime spot in the NBA draft lottery, the Bucks have become a strong Over play. Last week opened with one of the biggest shootouts so far this season - a 130-110 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers - and ended with a narrow loss to the Indiana Pacers and a nine-point defeat against Brooklyn. Milwaukee's offense has improved over the past month, while the defense remains mediocre - so expect plenty more Overs down the stretch.


Best Under play - Portland Trail Blazers (3-0 SU, 0-3 O/U)

So much for owning one of the NBA's worst defenses. The Trail Blazers overcame an injury to power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, then continued to roll in his return late last week as they stretched both their winning and Under streaks to five games with a pair of victories over the Denver Nuggets and a win over the Brooklyn Nets. Portland has held opponents below 100 points in five straight games, showing off a new-found commitment commitment to defense.


Surveying the schedule

The Minnesota Timberwolves are running out of time in their quest to snag one of the final Western Conference playoff spots. The Timberwolves open the week in 10th place in the conference, a full 5 1/2 games back of the eighth-place Dallas Mavericks with just 24 games remaining. Minnesota, which received a major boost with the returns of center Nikola Pekovic and guard Kevin Martin, play in Denver on Monday before kicking off a four-game homestand against New York.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, March 3

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This week's best NBA spot bet opportunities
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Letdown spot

Golden State began a six-game East Coast road trip in Detroit last Monday night. Its grueling trip will end on in Boston Wednesday night. But the Warriors will play a big game the night before in Indiana against the Pacers. That is a huge game for Golden State, as it's coming off a loss in Toronto, and will be playing with revenge after losing at home to the Pacers in late January.

The Warriors will return home after playing in Boston, and if Golden State wins in Indiana, the game against the Celtics will come in a major letdown spot. The Celtics have three full days off to prepare for the Warriors, who will be playing its ninth game over a 15-day stretch.


Lookahead spot

Houston will play four games this week, beginning at home versus Miami Tuesday and finishing at home versus Portland Sunday. Three of the Rockets' four opponents are Class-A teams: Heat, Pacers, and Blazers. The Rockets’ lone road game this week comes in Orlando Wednesday.

The Rockets will play that game on a back-to-back set after hosting the Heat. Houston will have no interest in traveling and playing in Orlando, especially since they’ll return home right after to face Indiana and Portland. The Rockets will surely be looking ahead to those games while going through the motions in Orlando.


Schedule spot

The Los Angeles Lakers have the toughest schedule in the NBA this week. They will play five games with their only days off being Wednesday and Saturday. The Lakers began the week in Portland Monday before hosting back-to-back home games against the Pelicans and Clippers. Thursday night they’ll be in Denver before concluding the week with a home game against Oklahoma City Sunday.

The Lakers’ trouble spot will be against the Nuggets Thursday night. They will go into that game on a back-to-back set, and it will also be their fourth game in five nights. Los Angeles’ fatigue will be magnified in the thin air and altitude of Denver. The Nuggets have the previous night off, so the Lakers are simply in a terrible scheduling spot for their game in Denver.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, March 3

Rockets' center Dwight Howard, questionable Tues

Howard missed practice Monday with back soreness and is questionable to play Tuesday against the Heat.


Knicks' current skid hasn't been kind to backers

The New York Knicks' season continues to get worse. They are now on six game losing streak which also hasn't been kind to Knicks' backers.

During the current losing skid the Knicks are 1-5 against the spread. They are now 24-36 ATS for the season, the second worst record in the Association.

The Knicks are 5-point road dogs when they visit the Detroit Pistons Monday night.

 

[CNOTES]

MARCH RECORD

............................. 2 - 1 - 1 *****

............................. 4 - 1 - DOUBLE PLAYS

............................. 2 - 1 TRIPLE PLAYS


Monday, March 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Memphis - 7:00 PM ET Washington +1.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Washington - Over 190 500

Chicago - 7:30 PM ET Brooklyn -3 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Brooklyn - Under 186.5 500

New York - 7:30 PM ET New York +4 500
Detroit - Under 209.5 500

Charlotte - 7:30 PM ET Charlotte +11.5 500 *****
Miami - Under 196.5 500

Utah - 8:00 PM ET Milwaukee -1 500
Milwaukee - Under 196 500

Minnesota - 9:00 PM ET Minnesota -5.5 500 *****
Denver - Over 216 500

L.A. Lakers - 10:00 PM ET L.A. Lakers +12 500
Portland - Over 222 500

New Orleans - 10:00 PM ET Sacramento -4.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Sacramento - Under 204.5 500

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Golden State at Indiana
The Warriors look to bounce back from their 104-98 loss to Toronto on Sunday and come into tonight's contest with Indiana carrying a 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games following a SU defeat. Golden State is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, MARCH 4

Game 501-502: Golden State at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 122.947; Indiana 123.267
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5 1/2; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+5 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: San Antonio at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.896; Cleveland 115.837
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 208
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Philadelphia at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 102.656; Oklahoma City 118.740
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 16; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 20 1/2; 219
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+20 1/2); Under

Game 507-508: Miami at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 129.328; Houston 128.074
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 509-510: LA Clippers at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 125.999; Phoenix 120.661
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5 1/2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3; 218 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3); Under

Game 511-512: New Orleans at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 114.814; LA Lakers 114.151
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 1; 204
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1 1/2; 210
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+1 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GOLDEN STATE (36 - 24) at INDIANA (46 - 13) - 3/4/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 87-71 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 64-45 ATS (+14.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 49-32 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents since 1996.
INDIANA is 140-96 ATS (+34.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
INDIANA is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 4-1 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 4-1 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN ANTONIO (43 - 16) at CLEVELAND (24 - 37) - 3/4/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 131-106 ATS (+14.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 656-565 ATS (+34.5 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 55-38 ATS (+13.2 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 150-116 ATS (+22.4 Units) in March games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 129-88 ATS (+32.2 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 38-23 ATS (+12.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 61-35 ATS (+22.5 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 334-275 ATS (+31.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
CLEVELAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (15 - 45) at OKLAHOMA CITY (45 - 15) - 3/4/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-50 ATS (-31.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-32 ATS (-15.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 84-67 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 73-58 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (43 - 14) at HOUSTON (40 - 19) - 3/4/2014, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (41 - 20) at PHOENIX (35 - 24) - 3/4/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 151-210 ATS (-80.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 101-139 ATS (-51.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
PHOENIX is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHOENIX is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
PHOENIX is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
PHOENIX is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
PHOENIX is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 35-26 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in road games after allowing 85 points or less since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 5-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 5-4 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (23 - 37) at LA LAKERS (21 - 39) - 3/4/2014, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 24-33 ATS (-12.3 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-31 ATS (-16.1 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) against Pacific division opponents this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 150-203 ATS (-73.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 97-122 ATS (-37.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 129-168 ATS (-55.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 49-73 ATS (-31.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 45-70 ATS (-32.0 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 8-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 4

Hot teams
-- Spurs won six of last seven games, are 17-13 vs spread on road.
-- Indiana won its last five games, but is 1-5-1 vs spread in its last seven. Warriors won five of their last seven games.
-- Miami won its last eight games (6-0-2 vs spread). Rockets won 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Thunder won last two games, but is 1-4-1 vs spread in last six.
-- Clippers won/covered their last four games. Phoenix is 5-3 in last eight games, is 19-12-1 vs spread at home.
-- Lakers won last two games by total of five points.

Cold Teams
-- Cleveland lost four of its last six games.
-- 76ers lost their last 14 games (3-11 vs spread).
-- Pelicans lost their last eight games (1-6-1 vs spread).

Series records
-- Spurs won last eight games with Cleveland, winning last three visits here, by 1-10-35 points.
-- Pacers won five of last six games with Golden State.
-- Rockets won their last seven games with Miami (3-4 vs spread).
-- Thunder won their last nine games with Philly (8-1 vs spread).
-- Clippers are 4-3 in last seven games with Phoenix, after going 1-13 in previous fourteen series games.
-- Lakers won ten of last eleven games with New Orleans.

Totals
-- Seven of last nine San Antonio games went over the total; seven of last nine Cavalier games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Golden State games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Houston games went over total.
-- Eight of last ten Oklahoma City games went over.
-- Five of last seven Clipper games went over total.
-- Six of last eight New Orleans games stayed under.




NBA

Tuesday, March 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cleveland's last 15 games at home
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio

7:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. INDIANA
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Golden State's last 24 games when playing Indiana
Golden State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Indiana is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Indiana's last 24 games when playing Golden State

8:00 PM
MIAMI vs. HOUSTON
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing at home against Miami
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

9:00 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. PHOENIX
LA Clippers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the LA Clippers last 11 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

10:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
LA Lakers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when playing at home against New Orleans


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NBA

Tuesday, March 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Heat at Rockets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami Heat at Houston Rockets (+1, 210)

The Houston Rockets are hoping LeBron James left all of his points at home. James will attempt to follow up his career-high 61-point effort on the second night of a back-to-back when the Miami Heat visit the Rockets on Tuesday. The superstar forward went 22-of-33 from the floor against the Charlotte Bobcats and threw in seven rebounds and five assists while posting the highest scoring total in franchise history.

Houston is capable of putting up some gaudy scoring numbers of its own and might have to turn Tuesday’s contest into a race with the Heat if Dwight Howard, who sat out practice on Monday due to back soreness, can’t go. The Rockets have taken 11 of their last 13, including a 129-103 win at Sacramento last week in which James Harden went off for 43 points in 31 minutes. Harden could have to deal with Dwyane Wade, who watched James’ historic night from the sidelines while resting but is expected to dress on Tuesday.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBATV, Sun Sports (Miami), CSN Houston

LINE HISTORY: Houston opened as a 1-point home underdog at some books. Others waited to post odds due to Dwight Howard's unknown status. The total opened at 210 points.

POWER RANKINGS: Miami (-14.5) - Houston (-11.5) + Home Court (-3.0) = Pick

INJURY WATCH: Rockets - Greg Smith (Ques. Knee), Chandler Parsons (Ques. Illness), Dwight Howard (Ques. Neck)

ABOUT THE HEAT (42-14 SU, 26-28-2 ATS, 32-24 O/U): James’ record night was the latest in a string of remarkable performances from the reigning MVP, who is shooting 67.2 percent from the field in three games while wearing a protective mask over his broken nose. “I think what helped was we couldn’t get no stops in the fourth quarter,” James told reporters of his record night. “That allowed me to stay in the game. … I wanted to try to close it out and I was happy I was able to make a few plays to help us win the game.” “King James” has shot 50 percent or better in each of his last eight games and is averaging 35.3 points in that span.

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (40-19 SU, 30-27-2 ATS, 28-29-2 O/U): Houston is in a battle with the Los Angeles Clippers and the Portland Trail Blazers for the Nos. 3-5 spots in the Western Conference and will face championship contenders Miami, Indiana, Portland and Oklahoma City over the next five games. The Rockets built up a 21-point lead after the first quarter against Detroit on Saturday but had to hold on for a 118-110 win. “I didn’t really like the way we came out in the second half,” Howard told reporters. “I thought we really should have kept the foot on the gas but we didn’t. We allowed them to get back in the game. That’s not what we need to do if we want to be a championship team.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Houston.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference.
* Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Tuesday, March 4

Bettors beware of Warriors in Indiana

The Golden State Warriors have a long standing history of not covering in Indiana. In the past 12 games the Warriors have traveled to the Hoosier State, they are 1-11 ATS with the one cover coming all the way back on Feb. 5, 2007.

The Warriors will be +5.5-points when they visit the Indiana Pacers Tuesday.


Pelicans are have been bad SU, no better ATS

The New Orleans Pelicans have been on a terrible 1-10 skid and bettors have found no solace backing them against the spread. The Pelicans are an abysmal 1-8-2 ATS during their last 11 games with their one cover coming 10 days ago.

The Pelicans will be 2-point road dogs when they travel to LA to take on the Lakers Tuesday.


Thunder open with biggest line of the season

The Oklahoma City Thunder opened as 20-point home favorites for their game against the Philadelphia 76ers Tuesday. The line has since moved to -20.5 for the Thunder, showing that bettors are still backing Oklahoma City despite the massive spread.

Before the Thunder and 76ers' huge spread, the largest point differential of the season was 15.5.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, March 4

Golden State at Indiana, 7:05 ET
Golden State: 10-2 ATS revenging a SU loss vs opponent as a favorite
Indiana: 6-21 ATS after a win by 6 points or less

San Antonio at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
San Antonio: 70-47 ATS after playing a home game
Cleveland: 7-16 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent

Philadelphia at Oklahoma City, 8:05 ET
Philadelphia: 14-26 ATS after playing 4 consecutive games as an underdog
Oklahoma City: 14-5 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread

Miami at Houston, 8:05 ET
Miami: n/a
Houston: n/a

LA Clippers at Phoenix, 9:05 ET
LA Clippers: 3-13 ATS after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite
Phoenix: 21-11 ATS as an underdog

New Orleans at LA Lakers, 10:35 ET
New Orleans: 2-12 ATS against Pacific division opponents
LA Lakers: 15-7 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games

 

[CNOTES]

Hoop Trends - Tuesday

March 4, 2014


ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Thunder are 10-0 ATS (6.75 ppg) since Nov 11, 2012 at home after a win in which their DPA was positive at home.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The 76ers are 0-12 OU (-8.96 ppg) since Nov 04, 2012 on the road after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field but did not lose by 40+.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Warriors are 0-11-1 OU (-11.83 ppg) since Dec 07, 2013 after Stephen Curry was the Warriors’ high scorer on the road.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Suns are 0-12 OU (-9.04 ppg) since Jan 19, 2011 with a total of at least 191 after a win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Thunder are 0-7 ATS (-7.79 ppg) since Nov 18, 2009 after Russell Westbrook shot better than 66% from the field in a win.

-- The 76ers are 0-6-1 OU (-3.64 ppg) since Mar 10, 2013 on the road after Thaddeus Young was the 76ers’ high scorer in a loss.

 

[CNOTES]

Inside the Paint - Tuesday

March 4, 2014


Be sure to follow us on Twitter for daily NBA Betting Notes!

We’ve got a little more than six weeks of regular season action remaining in the NBA and if the recent league trends continue, the guys behind the betting counter might close up shop early.

From last Monday to Sunday, favorites went 43-6 straight up (87.7%). When you look at the overall numbers this season, you can see that this is a big deal considering favorites have won just under 70 percent of their games straight up.

For our purposes, against the spread (ATS) records are far more important and the favorites didn’t let up in that department either last week. The ‘chalk’ went 31-17-1 (64.5%) over the 7-day span and there were a couple back-door covers that actually hurt this number.

The bleeding continued for the bookmakers on Monday as the favorites went 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. The lone team to capture the upset was the L.A. Lakers, who knocked off Portland 107-106 as 12-point underdogs (ML +700). Including last night’s results, favorites are now 50-7 SU and 37-19-1 ATS (66%) over the last eight days.

Will the underdogs finally bark tonight? I personally believe all things will eventually balance out but I’d still tread lightly for now.

Let’s take a closer look at Tuesday’s six-game card.

Golden State (36-24 SU, 29-29 ATS) at Indiana (46-13 SU, 33-25 ATS)

The one opening number that makes no sense to me for Tuesday’s card is the Pacers -5 ½ against the Warriors. On Jan. 20, Indiana stopped Golden State 102-94 as a two-point road underdog, which was its fifth win in the last six meetings between the pair. Last season, these teams met in Indiana and the Pacers dropped the Warriors 108-97 as 8 ½-point favorites. It’s pretty obvious that Indiana is much-improved this season and it’s also clear that Golden State has taken a step back. Yet, the Pacers are laying three points less a year later. See what I mean?

Golden State has gone 2-2 on its current six-game road trip and the two wins came against the Pistons and Knicks. The losses versus the Bulls and Raptors. On Wednesday, the Warriors wrap up the trip at Boston and based on these tendencies, I’d lean to the visitor.

Others might argue the line is fair considering Indiana’s current form. Since the All-Star break, the Pacers are 6-1 SU but only 1-5-1 ATS. Plus their last three wins have come by a combined 13 points.

If you bet numbers and not names, then I’m sure you’re leaning Golden State tonight.

San Antonio (43-16 SU, 28-31 ATS) at Cleveland (24-37 SU, 28-33 ATS)

The Spurs opened as 6 ½-point road favorites and the number has settled at 7 ½-points on Monday. San Antonio has been a solid investment (19-5 SU, 14-10 ATS) as a road favorite but VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers believes the home ‘dog has value.

He explained, “The Spurs are coming off three consecutive wins at home, as San Antonio hits the road for just one game tonight at Cleveland before returning home on Thursday to host Miami in a major revenge spot. The Cavs have split eight games since the All-Star break, while owning a 9-3 ATS record since December as a home underdog. Cleveland was blown out at San Antonio the last time these teams met in Texas, as the Cavs should be up for this game against a Spurs' club that could be looking ahead. I'll take the points with the Cavs.”

Miami (43-14 SU, 27-28 ATS) at Houston (40-19 SU, 30-27 ATS)

LeBron James dropped a career-high 61 points last night in the Heat’s 124-107 win over the Bobcats, which was the team’s eighth straight win. Bettors riding Miami have been golden lately, watching the club go 6-0-2 ATS during their winning streak.

On Tuesday, the Heat begin a tough three-game road swing in Houston before heading to San Antonio and Chicago. The line opened pick ‘em but as of Tuesday morning, Miami has been listed as a short road favorite (-1) despite playing on no rest.

In back-to-back spots this season, Miami has gone 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS, with the losses coming at Brooklyn and Philadelphia. Total players should note that the ‘over’ is 7-3 in these situations for the Heat.

Houston has started the second-half of the season with a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS mark. The Rockets have only been catching points once this season at home and they defeated the Spurs 97-90 on Jan. 28 as two-point ‘dogs.

Dwight Howard (back) and Chandler Parsons (flu) are both banged up but listed as ‘probable’ for this matchup.

Philadelphia (15-45 SU, 22-38 ATS) at Oklahoma City (45-15 SU, 33-27 ATS)

The Thunder opened as 20-point home favorites over the 76ers and you could argue that the line should be higher. I reached out to VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence and asked him to dig up some numbers for me on this high point-spread. According to Marc and his database, he provided the below.

“There have been a total of 18 games with spreads of -20 or more in the NBA since 1990. The favorites are 9-9 ATS in these games. The highest was Cleveland -24.5 vs. Dallas on 12/23/1990 (won by 31). The most recent was Boston -22.5 over Miami on 3/30/2008 (won by 26).”

Whenever I see large numbers like this, I tend to stay away or play the favorite only because I never bet on an underdog in any sport unless I could see them winning outright. If you feel the 76ers can pull off the biggest upset of the season in the NBA, then take a shot on the generous money-line odds (40/1 – Bet $100 to win $4,000) at 5Dimes. Oklahoma City has won nine straight (8-1 ATS) against Philadelphia, which includes a 103-91 road win this season on Jan. 25.

L.A. Clippers (41-20 SU, 35-26 ATS) at Phoenix (35-24 SU, 37-20 ATS)

This is a nice matchup and the line tells you that it should be a competitive game. The Clippers opened as 3 ½-point road favorites and they’ll be looking to win and cover their fifth straight game. The Suns opened the second-half of the season with a 3-3 record but they showed some explosiveness over the weekend with back-to-back home wins and covers over the Pelicans (116-104) and Hawks (129-120). These teams met on Dec. 30 from the Staples Center and the Suns hammered the Clippers by 25 points (107-88) as 7 ½-point road underdogs. Los Angeles guard Jamal Crawford (calf) is expected to miss tonight’s game.

New Orleans (23-37 SU, 24-33 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (21-39 SU, 32-27 ATS)

Similar to the Thunder-76ers matchup, I don’t believe you can make an argument for either side. Both teams played Monday and dealing with fatigue hasn’t been good for the pair. The Lakers are 4-8 SU and 7-5 ATS on zero days rest while the Pelicans are 3-12 SU and 5-9-3 ATS.

The line opened as a pick ‘em and early money moved the Lakers to 2 ½-point home favorites. Los Angeles did pull off a big upset at Portland last night and has now won two straight. However, make a note that the Lakers haven’t won three in a row since late November.

New Orleans has dropped eight straight games (1-6-1 ATS), four of the last five by double digits.

 

[CNOTES]

MARCH RECORD

............................. 2 - 3 - 1 *****

............................. 5 - 2 - DOUBLE PLAYS

............................. 3 - 1 TRIPLE PLAYS


Tuesday, March 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Antonio - 7:00 PM ET San Antonio -7.5 500 *****
Cleveland - Under 202.5 500

Golden State - 7:00 PM ET Indiana -5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Indiana - Under 196.5 500

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Miami +1 500
Houston - Under 211 500

Philadelphia - 8:00 PM ET Philadelphia +21 500
Oklahoma City - Over 217.5 500

L.A. Clippers - 9:00 PM ET Phoenix +4 500
Phoenix - Over 219 500

New Orleans - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Lakers -2.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
L.A. Lakers - Under 211 500

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Memphis at Brooklyn
The Nets host a Memphis team that is coming off a 110-104 win over Washington and is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games after allowing more than 100 points in the previous game. Memphis is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-1). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 5

Game 701-702: Indiana at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 122.232; Charlotte 115.618
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 6 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 189
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-4 1/2); Over

Game 703-704: Houston at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 125.174; Orlando 116.683
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 8 1/2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6 1/2; 208
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6 1/2); Over

Game 705-706: Utah at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 112.586; Washington 124.149
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 11 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 8; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-8); Under

Game 707-708: Memphis at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 121.300; Brooklyn 117.208
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 4; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 1; 189
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-1); Under

Game 709-710: Chicago at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 120.349; Detroit 121.626
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2); Over

Game 711-712: Golden State at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 121.003; Boston 114.375
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 6 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-5); Under

Game 713-714: Sacramento at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.894; Milwaukee 116.881
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3 1/2; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+3 1/2); Under

Game 715-716: New York at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 114.143; Minnesota 120.374
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 8 1/2; 210 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+8 1/2); Over

Game 717-718: Dallas at Denver (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.034; Denver 111.193
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 10; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 218
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4); Under

Game 719-720: Atlanta at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 114.793; Portland 120.695
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 6 224
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 8; 217
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+8); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Wednesday, March 5


Mavericks-Nuggets favors the road team

In the last 13 meetings between the Dallas Mavericks and the Denver Nuggets the road team is 11-2 against the spread.

The Mavs also have an amazing 21-11 ATS record this season on the road, while the Nuggets are a sub-par 11-19 ATS when at home.

The Mavs will travel to Denver as 4.5-point road faves Wednesday.


Rockets have had problems covering against Magic

It’s been a long time since the Houston Rockets have covered a spread against the Orlando Magic. The last time the Rockets covered against the Magic was April 7, 2009 and since then Houston is 0-8 ATS versus Orlando.

Earlier this season when the Rockets hosted the Magic, Houston failed to cover Orlando +13.5.

The Rockets will visit Orlando Wednesday and this game is currently off the board.


Hawks losing and not paying out to bettors

The Atlanta Hawks have been on a skid since the start of February, going 2-11 straight-up. Bettors have not found much solace in the Hawks as they are 2-10-1 against the spread during that time, including 0-6-1 on the road.

The Hawks will travel to Portland Wednesday. This game is currently off the board.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 5

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INDIANA (46 - 14) at CHARLOTTE (27 - 33) - 3/5/2014, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 6-3 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 8-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (41 - 19) at ORLANDO (19 - 43) - 3/5/2014, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 4-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (21 - 39) at WASHINGTON (31 - 29) - 3/5/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 78-61 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 51-36 ATS (+11.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
WASHINGTON is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
WASHINGTON is 315-381 ATS (-104.1 Units) in home games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (34 - 25) at BROOKLYN (29 - 29) - 3/5/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 86-66 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 44-20 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 105-75 ATS (+22.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 3-1 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 3-1 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (33 - 27) at DETROIT (24 - 36) - 3/5/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 31-46 ATS (-19.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-5 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 8-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (37 - 24) at BOSTON (20 - 40) - 3/5/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 2-2 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (21 - 39) at MILWAUKEE (12 - 47) - 3/5/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 25-34 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 23-32 ATS (-12.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
MILWAUKEE is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 37-58 ATS (-26.8 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 204-262 ATS (-84.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off an upset win as an underdog this season.
MILWAUKEE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 66-93 ATS (-36.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 2-1 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 2-1 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (21 - 40) at MINNESOTA (30 - 29) - 3/5/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 24-37 ATS (-16.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
NEW YORK is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
MINNESOTA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (36 - 25) at DENVER (25 - 34) - 3/5/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 81-61 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games this season.
DALLAS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 138-103 ATS (+24.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
DALLAS is 160-121 ATS (+26.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
DALLAS is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
DALLAS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-3 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-4 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (26 - 32) at PORTLAND (41 - 19) - 3/5/2014, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 2-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 5

Hot teams
-- Pacers won five of last six games, covered one of last seven.
-- Rockets won 12 of their last 14 games.
-- Wizards won six of their last seven games.
-- Warriors won six of their last eight games.
-- Grizzlies won seven of their last nine games. Brooklyn won four of its last five games.
-- Chicago won four of its last five games.
-- Minnesota won six of its last seven games.
-- Trailblazers won five of their last six games.

Cold Teams
-- Bobcats lost last three games by 10-17-17 points.
-- Magic lost six of last nine games, are 10-20-2 vs spread on road.
-- Utah lost last three games by 20-3-26 points.
-- Celtics lost six of their last seven games.
-- Pistons lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Bucks lost 22 of their last 27 games. Sacramento lost three of its last four games.
-- Knicks lost their last seven games (1-6 vs spread).
-- Denver lost its last six games, covered last two. Mavericks lost last two games, by 9-6 points.
-- Hawks lost 11 of their last 12 games (1-10-1 vs spread).

Series records
-- Pacers won five in row, 14 of last 15 games with Charlotte.
-- Rockets won last three games with Orlando by 8-8-10 points.
-- Jazz won last four games with Washington, by 14-7-4-3 points.
-- Warriors lost last four visits to Boston, by 8-14-4-8 points.
-- Nets won four of last six games with Memphis.
-- Pistons won two of last three vs Chicago, after losing previous seven.
-- Kings lost three of last four visits to Milwaukee.
-- Knicks won their last four games with Minnesota.
-- Nuggets won four of last five games with Dallas.
-- Hawks won eight of last ten games with Portland.

Totals
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Indiana games.
-- Six of last eight Houston games went over total.
-- Three of last four Utah games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last eight Golden State games stayed under.
-- Last seven Memphis games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Detroit games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Milwaukee games went over.
-- Seven of last ten New York games went over total; under is 5-2-1 in last eight Minnesota games.
-- Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total.
-- Last seven Atlanta games went over the total.