Cnotes Major League Baseball Best Bets-News,Trends For July !

[CNOTES]

Monday's Tip Sheet

July 6, 2014

Orioles at Nationals – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
BAL: Tillman (7-4, 4.21 ERA)
WSH: Strasburg (7-6, 3.53 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Orioles took two of three games against the Red Sox at Fenway Park, including a 12-inning victory on Sunday as +120 underdogs. The Nationals also won two of three contests, capturing the final two contests against the Cubs at home. In each win, Washington cashed as a favorite of least -175, while improving to 5-1 on its current homestand.

What to watch for: Baltimore won three of four matchups against Washington last season, while three of those games finished ‘over’ the total. The Nationals are 7-3-1 to the ‘over’ in the past 11 games, while posting a 5-1 record in the last six home interleague contests. The O’s have rolled on the road with Tillman starting, compiling an 8-2 team record in 10 starts away from Camden Yards.

Pirates at Cardinals – 8:15 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
PIT: Morton (5-9, 3.30 ERA)
STL: Wainwright (11-4, 1.89 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Cardinals stubbed their toe in the final two games against the Marlins, falling at home on Sunday as a short favorite, 8-4. The Pirates pulled ahead of the Redbirds for second place in the NL Central after sweeping the Phillies at home, as Pittsburgh has won 12 of its past 15 contests. In eight of the last 10 games, Pittsburgh’s pitching had held the opposition to two runs or fewer.

What to watch for: Pittsburgh has put together an 11-2 record in its past 13 series openers, while the Bucs have won seven of Morton’s 10 starts under the lights this season. Wainwright has beaten the Pirates four straight times at Busch Stadium, while the Cardinals have hit the ‘under’ in each of his past four starts overall.

Blue Jays at Angels – 10:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
TOR: Happ (7-4, 4.38 ERA)
LAA: Weaver (9-6, 3.56 ERA)

Previous series recap: Toronto’s offense dried up in a four-game sweep at Oakland, plating only four runs in the four defeats. The Angels stayed on fire by winning their 10th consecutive home game on Sunday, topping the Astros, 6-1 to pull off a four-game sweep. How impressive have the Halos been at Angel Stadium recently? Los Angeles owns a 19-2 record at home since late May, while scoring at least five runs in eight consecutive home contests.

What to watch for: The Angels grabbed three of four games at Toronto in early May, while Los Angeles has won eight of the past 10 meetings. The Jays will be without Edwin Encarnacion, who was placed on the 15-day DL with a quad injury. Toronto is just 1-9 in its last 10 road games, with the lone victory coming at Cincinnati after the Jays fell behind, 8-0. The struggles of the Jays’ offense have translated into plenty of ‘unders’ of late, with the ‘under’ going 9-2 in the last 11 contests.

Giants at Athletics – 10:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
SF: Vogelsong (5-5, 3.86 ERA)
OAK: Chavez (6-5, 3.23 ERA)

Previous series recap: Oakland is cruising along with the best record in baseball (55-33) after sweeping Toronto this past weekend. The A’s improved to 9-1 in the last 10 home games, while the ‘under’ has hit eight times in this stretch. The Giants picked up their first series win in their last four tries, taking two of three games at San Diego. In spite of their recent struggles (6-15 last 21 games), San Francisco has won four of its last five away contests.

What to watch for: Since an 8-1 team record in his first nine starts, the A’s are just 4-4 in Chavez’s last eight trips to the mound. In Vogelsong’s seven road outings this season, the Giants have won six times, but San Francisco is 1-4 in his last five starts overall. Last season, the A’s won three of four meetings from the Giants, including a pair of blowout victories at home.

Twins at Mariners – 10:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
MIN: Correia (4-10, 4.95 ERA)
SEA: Iwakuma (6-4, 3.33 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Mariners return home following a 4-2 road trip, but were tripped up by the White Sox on Sunday, 1-0. The Twins continue to struggle after dropping three of four at home to the Yankees, including a 9-7 defeat on Sunday in which Minnesota fell behind early, 9-0.

What to watch for: Minnesota has lost 10 of its past 11 games away from Target Field, while posting a 2-6 record in its past eight road series openers. The Twins did beat the Mariners two of three times at home back in May, with each victory coming by one run. Since losing five straight home games in mid-June, the M’s are rolling at Safeco Field with a 7-2 record in the last nine home contests. However, the Mariners are 1-5 in the past six home starts made by Iwakuma.

 

[CNOTES]

Diamond Trends - Monday

July 7, 2014


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Red Sox are 10-0 since June 29, 2007 as a home favorite after an extra inning loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- When Mike Minor starts the Braves are 10-0 since September 10, 2010 after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $1110.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Rockies are 11-1 (+$975) since 2013 as a favorite when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher that season.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Indians are 10-0 since August 12, 2011 as a favorite when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $1000.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- When Kevin Correia starts the Twins are 1-12 since June 25, 2013 in the first game of a series for a net profit of $1030 when playing against.

 

[CNOTES]

Who's Hot - AL Edition

July 7, 2014

The All-Star Game is just around the corner, and there are some teams which are clearly All-Star teams for MLB betting fans in our eyes.

Check out the clubs who have been increasing your bankrolls all year long in the American League.

Oakland Athletics (55-33, +$1,353) – The A's probably had one of the best teams in baseball before they made the blockbuster move of the trading season, but now that they have RHP Jason Hammel and RHP Jeff Samardzija, they certainly have an elite team which can win the AL West and make a serious play at the World Series. Samardzija was a winner in his first start with his new team to get the club up to 28-15 at home and 22-games above .500 for the season, and he is going to really look for a big time turnaround with his won/loss record after pitching so well and getting so little help with the Chicago Cubs.

Remember too, that this is the only team in baseball averaging five runs per game to boot. For a team which plays in a ballpark that is considered one of the most pitching-friendly in the game, posting 92 home runs, seventh best in the league, is no mistake. These A's are for real.

Baltimore Orioles (48-40, +$1,033) – We still have a hard time imagining that the Orioles have the best team in the AL East right now. They just took four straight from the Texas Rangers and two out of three at Fenway Park from the Boston Red Sox, and that has propelled them to one of the best money marks in the game.

However, it's interesting to note that all of Baltimore's damage has come away from Camden Yards this year. The O's have the best road mark for bettors in the American League with a 25-19 record. It's playing on the road that has consistently gotten the Orioles in trouble in the rough and tumble AL East over the course of the last few seasons, but with more than half of this season gone, that doesn't seem to be an issue any longer.

The question? Does Baltimore really have the goods to go after one of the big time pitchers who could be on the trading block in the next few weeks? That could make all the difference in the world to a team with a real lack of quality at the front of the rotation.

Los Angeles Angels (51-36, +$949) – The A's had to be looking in their rearview mirrors when they pulled the trigger on the Samardzija deal, as they know that the Halos are just 3.5-games back as we near the All-Star Break.

Whereas Baltimore has been doing it on the road, the Halos have been doing it at home. They are 30-14 at the Big A this year, and what's amazing is the fact that three of those games have been lost because of blown saves. The Angels are quietly remaking their shoddy bullpen, and the move to bring in RHP Jason Grilli might end up being one of the most unheralded, yet important trades of the season. We know that LA can hit the ball. We just don't know if it can close out games when it is ahead. If not for this pen, the Angels would have the best team in baseball.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend.........

13) White Sox' Chris Sale is 8-1, 2.16 in 13 starts this season; how on God's green earth is he not an All-Star? Injuries will get him on the team, but he deserved to be named Sunday. Taking setup guys over starting pitchers is stupid.

12) Dodgers actually have a small bubble machine in their dugout, like kids use, for when a guy hits a home run. Its so childish its kind of cool.

11) I'm not a big fan of radar guns in baseball; all these guys don't throw 98-100. Those are the radar guns troopers use when giving out speeding tickets, calibrated a little bit too high.

10) Houston Astros are struggling again, at 36-54, but if you look at their record at the end of 5th innings, it is 44-37-9- their lack of pitching depth is killing them.

9) 27-year old Cuban pitcher Odrisamer Despaigne is off to a good start with the Padres, going 2-0, 0.92 in his first three MLB starts, after he went 1-3, 7.61 in five AAA starts. When they brought him up, I'm thinking "Why this guy?" but after I saw him pitch, the high altitude in El Paso could've been a problem.

8) Colorado Rockies have already used 13 starting pitchers this season, most of any team in major leagues.

7) Baltimore's starting pitchers are 7-0 in their last 14 road games.

6) Speaking of the Orioles, 7th inning of their game with Boston Sunday took over an hour to play, with O's scoring four run, Red Sox five.

5) One of my favorite players, Brandon McCarthy got traded to the Bronx; small ballpark and the DH won't help his stats any-- he was 3-10, 5.01 in 18 starts for Arizona this year. Brian Cashman got his butt kicked in the trade game this week, and had to settle for McCarthy while Samardzija/Hammel went to Oakland.

4) Competitive eating needs Kobiyashi back in the fold, to re-new his rivalry with Joey Chestnut, who has won the Nathan's hot dog eating contest eight years in a row. Kobiyashi could once match Chestnut weiner-for-weiner.

I had three hot dogs for lunch Sunday and felt like Haystacks Calhoun for the next two hours-- how do you eat 61 hot dogs in ten minutes?

3) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored 28 ppg in his first two summer league games for Detroit, as Stan Van Gundy looks for shooters. He may have found one. This is when summer league hoops kick in, this week in Orlando, then Friday in Las Vegas. I'll be at the Vegas Summer League on July 18, then will be watching various AAU and junioer college showcases the rest of the month. .

2) Clippers replace Darren Collison with Jordan Farmar, as some role players sign on with new teams; everyone else is waiting for the drama queens to sign on with whatever teams they sign with, then things will move a lot more quickly. There is so much social media now that all this speculation has become annoying.

1) I've said this before, but every high school basketball player should watch these summer league games, to see how freakin' difficult it is to make it to the NBA. A lot of great players don't make it, or only make it briefly. You have to have one outstanding, pro-level skill, combined with great work habits and the ability to make your teammates better-- it ain't easy.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Dunkel

San Francisco at Oakland
The A's open up their interleague series against a Giants team that is 2-9 in its last 11 games at Oakland. Oakland is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-160). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

MONDAY, JULY 7

Game 901-902: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 14.694; NY Mets (Matsuzaka) 15.595
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7;
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+110); Under

Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 13.601; Cincinnati (Leake) 17.854
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-175); Over

Game 905-906: Philadelphia at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.378; Milwaukee (Estrada) 14.318
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Under

Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.184; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.556
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Over

Game 909-910: San Diego at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 16.355; Colorado (Matzek) 14.632
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-110); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under

Game 911-912: Miami at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 11.109; Arizona (Anderson) 15.189
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 4; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Over

Game 913-914: NY Yankees at Cleveland (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Greene) 16.864; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.464
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 915-916: Kansas City at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 15.864; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 17.235
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Over

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Carroll) 14.108; Boston (Buchholz) 17.150
Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 11
Vegas Line: Boston (-175); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-175); Over

Game 919-920: Houston at Texas (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Cosart) 15.464; Texas (Mikolas) 14.314
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-105); Under

Game 921-922: Toronto at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Happ) 16.449; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.502
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+145); Under

Game 923-924: Minnesota at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 13.682; Seattle (Iwakuma) 16.513
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-195); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-195); Over

Game 925-926: Baltimore at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 15.366; Washington (Strasburg) 14.342
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+155); Under

Game 927-928: San Francisco at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 12.717; Oakland (Chavez) 16.080
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-160); Over

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, July 7

Braves-Mets
Minor is 0-1, 7.52 in his last five starts.
Matsuzaka is 0-3, 6.06 in his last three starts.

Braves won nine of their last ten games.
Mets lost eight of their last eleven games.

Four of last five Minor starts went over total.

Cubs-Reds
Jackson is 1-3, 6.33 in his last five starts.
Leake is 3-1, 3.04 in his last four starts.

Cubs are 0-2 since Samardzija trade, scoring one run; overall, they're 7-3 in last ten road games, but lost last two. .
Cincinnati won four of its last five home games.
Six of last seven Cincinnati games stayed under total.

Phillies-Brewers
Hamels is 0-2, 4.19 in his last three starts.
Estrada is 1-1, 2.92 in his last couple starts.

Philly lost ten of its last twelve games.
Milwaukee lost five of its last six games.

Seven of last eight Estrada starts went over total.

Pirates-Cardinals
Morton is 4-2, 3.55 in his last six starts.
Wainwright is 3-1, 0.93 in his last five starts.

Pirates won 12 of their last 15 games.
St Louis is 5-7 in its last twelve games.
Under is 6-2-1 in Cardinals' last nine home games.

Padres-Rockies
Kennedy is 1-3, 5.46 in his last five starts.
Colorado lost last four Matzek starts (0-2, 4.76).

Padres won five of last seven games, but lost last two.
Colorado lost 17 of its last 20 games.

Under is 12-5-1 in Kennedy starts this season.

Marlins-Diamondbacks
Koehler is 1-1, 1.89 in his last three starts.
Anderson is 0-4, 5.49 in his last four starts.

Miami is 12-7 in its last nineteen road games.
Diamondbacks lost five of their last seven games.

Eight of last ten Arizona games stayed under total.

Bronx-Indians
Greene is making first MLB start; he is 5-2, 4.61 in 13 AAA starts this year. He allowed three unearned runs in 1/3 of an inning in his MLB debut.
Masterson is 0-1, 7.88 in his last four starts.

Bronx Bombers won four of their last five road games.
Indians won four of their last five games.
Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Cleveland games.

Royals-Rays
Former Ray Shields is 0-1, 6.63 in his last three starts.
Former Royal Odorizzi is 2-2, 2.05 in his last five starts.

Royals won 12 of their last 15 road games, but lost last two.
Tampa Bay won 10 of its last 12 games.
Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Tampa Bay games.

White Sox--Red Sox
Carroll is 0-5, 9.60 in his last six starts.
Buchholz is 1-0, 3.29 in two starts since coming off DL.

White Sox won three of their last four games.
Red Sox lost 11 of their last 16 games.

14 of last 18 games at Fenway Park stayed under.

Astros-Rangers
Cosart is 4-1, 3.48 in his last five starts.
Mikolas allowed three runs in 5.1 IP in his first MLB start.

Houston lost 15 of its last 19 games.
Rangers lost seven of their last eight games.
Five of last six Cosart road starts stayed under.

Blue Jays-Angels
Happ is 1-0, 2.45 in his last couple starts.
Angels won last three Weaver starts (2-0, 3.05).

Blue Jays lost nine of their last ten road games.
Angels won 12 of their last 15 games.

Ten of last eleven Toronto games stayed under.

Twins-Mariners
Correia is 2-3, 2.70 in his last five starts.
Iwakuma is 1-1, 6.60 in his last three starts.

Minnesota lost five of its last six games.
Mariners won seven of their last nine games.

Last five Correia starts stayed under the total.

Orioles-Nationals
Tillman is 2-0, 2.18 in his last three starts.
Strasburg is 1-2, 5.40 in his last four starts.

Orioles won six of their last seven games.
Washington won seven of its last eight games.

Eight of last eleven Washington games went over.

Giants-A's
Vogelsong is 0-2, 2.07 in his last two starts; Giants scored one run for him.
Chavez is 2-1, 2.00 in his last four home starts.

Giants won four of their last five road games.
Oakland won nine of its last ten home games.

Over is 9-4-1 in Giants' last fourteen games.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Minor 3-12; Matsuzaka 2-7
-- Jackson 7-17; Leake 3-17
-- Hamels 2-14; Estrada 6-17 (3 of last 4)
-- Morton 3-17; Wainwright 3-17
-- Kennedy 5-18; Matzek 1-5
-- Koehler 2-17; Anderson 2-10

-- Greene 0-0; Masterson 4-18
-- Shields 5-18 (3 of last 4); Odorizzi 1-17
-- Carroll 3-7; Buchholz 4-12 (0 of last 5)
-- Cosart 8-17 (3 of last 4); Mikolas 0-1
-- Happ 2-12; Weaver 4-18
-- Correia 4-17; Iwakuma 3-12 (3 of last 5)

-- Tillman 8-18 (8 of last 13); Strasburg 5-18 (1 of last 10)
-- Vogelsong 3-17; Chavez 5-17

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Monday, July 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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7:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. CLEVELAND
NY Yankees are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games
NY Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home

7:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. WASHINGTON
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Baltimore's last 13 games on the road
Washington is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore

7:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. BOSTON
Chi White Sox are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games on the road
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Boston's last 18 games at home

7:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. NY METS
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
NY Mets are 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
NY Mets are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta

7:10 PM
CHI CUBS vs. CINCINNATI
Chi Cubs are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 18-7 SU in their last 25 games when playing Chi Cubs
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

7:10 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 11 games when playing Tampa Bay
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games when playing Kansas City

8:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. TEXAS
Houston is 4-20 SU in its last 24 games when playing Texas
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games
Texas is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home

8:10 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. MILWAUKEE
Philadelphia is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games

8:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. ST. LOUIS
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 17 of St. Louis's last 25 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
St. Louis is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

8:40 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. COLORADO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing on the road against Colorado
San Diego is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games

9:40 PM
MIAMI vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Miami is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Miami

10:05 PM
TORONTO vs. LA ANGELS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
LA Angels are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
LA Angels are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto

10:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. OAKLAND
San Francisco is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Oakland is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Francisco

10:10 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SEATTLE
Minnesota is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Seattle is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Monday, July 7


Trend you need to know for White Sox/BoSox

The Chicago White Sox have been struggling against teams with losing records on the road recently, posting a 0-7 record in their last seven games through Sunday. The Southsiders face off against the Boston Red Sox (owners of a sub .500 record) Monday at Fenway Park.

Red Sox are -175 faves with a total of 10.


Leake, Reds owning Cubs as of late

In Cincinnati Reds pitcher Mike Leake's previous six outings against the Chicago Cubs, the Reds are a spotless 6-0. Leake will take the mound when the Reds host the lowly Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park Monday.

Cincy is currently -172 fave with a total of eight.


Braves sizzling hot as faves

Bettors backing the Atlanta Braves as faves have been cashing in a big way lately. In Atlanta's last 12 when listed as a fave, the Braves are a lights out 11-1 through Sunday.

The Braves are -126 road faves against the New York Mets Monday. The O/U is presently at 7.5.


Mets place Niese on DL

The New York Mets placed left-handed starter Jonathon Niese on the 15-day disabled list Sunday with a left shoulder strain, though he does not appear to be injured.

The club recalled right-handed reliever Buddy Carlyle from Triple-A Las Vegas to take Niese's spot on the 25-man roster.

Niese's spot in the rotation will go to right-hander Dillon Gee, who is ready to come off the DL. He will pitch Wednesday against the Atlanta Braves.

Niese, 27, was taken out of his last start Friday after just 12 pitches when he got tagged on the left side by a line drive hit by Texas Rangers outfielder Alex Rios. Niese said after that game that he felt fine.

The Mets want to give Niese a couple weeks of rest after noticing a decrease in velocity on his fastball.

"There's no discomfort, no pain," manager Terry Collins said before Sunday's game. "We're just seeing a decrease in stuff. You don't need radar guns to tell you there's something going on here."

Niese's ERA is 2.96, which is the best among the team's starters.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Monday, July 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB roundup: Yankees trade for RHP McCarthy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The New York Yankees acquired right-handed pitcher Brandon McCarthy and cash considerations from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Vidal Nuno on Sunday.

The Yankees also designated veteran outfielder Alfonso Soriano for assignment.

The Diamondbacks will pay half of the $4.1 million owed to McCarthy for the rest of the season and the Yankees will pay the $1 million in his assignment bonus, according to ESPN.

McCarthy is 3-10 with a 5.01 ERA in 18 starts this year. Nuno, 26, is 3-7 with a 4.78 ERA in 22 games (17 starts) in the last two seasons with the Yankees.

Soriano, 38, has a batting line of .221/.244/.367 with six home runs and 23 RBIs in 238 plate appearances this season. He has been in a platoon in the outfield with Ichiro Suzuki getting most of the starts in right.

---The New York Mets placed left-handed starter Jonathon Niese on the 15-day disabled list Sunday with a left shoulder strain, though he does not appear to be injured.

The club recalled right-handed reliever Buddy Carlyle from Triple-A Las Vegas to take Niese's spot on the 25-man roster.

Niese's spot in the rotation will go to right-hander Dillon Gee, who is ready to come off the DL. He will pitch Wednesday against the Atlanta Braves.

---The Cleveland Indians placed outfielder Michael Bourn on the 15-day disabled list Sunday with a left hamstring strain.

The club selected the contract of outfielder Tyler Holt from Triple-A Columbus to take Bourn's spot on the 25-man roster. Bourn was injured while running the bases in the eighth inning of Saturday's 7-3 win over the Kansas City Royals.

This marks Bourn's fourth career stint on the DL. He previously missed the first 13 games of this season with the same injury. Bourn is batting .267 with 37 runs, nine doubles, seven triples, three home runs and 21 RBIs in 66 games.

Holt, 25, has split this season between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus.

---The Kansas City Royals signed left-handed reliever Scott Downs on Sunday.

Downs joined the Royals bullpen immediately. To make room for Downs on the 25-man roster, the club optioned right-hander Casey Coleman to Triple-A Omaha. Coleman allowed a run during Saturday's loss to the Cleveland Indians.

Downs, 38, was recently released by the Chicago White Sox after he had a 6.08 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over 23 2/3 innings. Last season, Downs had a 2.49 ERA in 43 1/3 innings combined between the Los Angeles Angels and Atlanta Braves.

---The Toronto Blue Jays claimed outfielder Nolan Reimold off waivers Sunday from the Baltimore Orioles.

Reimold is a career .252 hitter with 42 doubles, five triples, 41 homers and 126 RBIs in 286 games for the Orioles. He is expected to join the blue Jays on Monday or tuesday for games against the Angels.

"He'll get a lot of playing time," Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Monday, July 7


Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto - Out indefinitely

Encarnacion has a grade 2 strained right quad and is expected to be placed on the disabled list.


Pitcher Shane Greene to make debut for Yankees

Shane Greene will be recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre to make the start in place of recently traded Vidal Nuno against the Cleveland Indians Monday.

The 25-year-old Greene made one disastrous relief appearance for New York earlier this season, when he retired just one batter and walked three while allowing three unearned runs against Boston. He was 5-2 with a 4.61 ERA for Scranton/Wilkes Barre but has pitched 13 scoreless innings over his last two starts.

Most shops have this off the board, but a few have the Indians as -110 home faves.


Yankees release Soriano to make room for pitching help

Yankees manager Joe Girardi said telling players they've been released is the hardest part of his job.

"I hate it," he said.

Girardi had to do just that on Sunday when the Yankees made the decision to designate Alfonso Soriano for assignment prior to New York's 9-7 win over the Minnesota Twins, ending his second stint with the club.

Soriano, 38, was hitting .221 with six home runs over 67 games this season. The move made room for pitcher Bruce Billings to be added to the roster.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Monday, July 7


Rain could play a role at this park Monday

Scattered thunderstorms could threaten Monday's game between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds from Great American Ball Park in Cincy.According to DailyBaseballData.com, there is a 60 percent possibility of scattered thunderstorms leading up to and during the game.The Reds are currently -170 favorites with a total of 8.


Away faves cash in for bettors Sunday

There were only four away favorites on the board in Sunday's MLB schedule, but they cashed in for backers in three of those four games.

The New York Yankees (-132), Tampa Bay Rays (-115) and Los Angeles Dodgers (-119) all won while the Seattle Mariners (-131) were the lone fave to falter.

Monday has a pair of road faves on the board with the Atlanta Braves (-129) at the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins (-106) at the Arizona Diamondbacks.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, July 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (49 - 39) at NY METS (39 - 49) - 7:10 PM
MIKE MINOR (L) vs. DAISUKE MATSUZAKA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 39-21 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 16-33 (-14.9 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 52-70 (-22.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 287-307 (-92.1 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
NY METS are 52-70 (-22.7 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 21-37 (-12.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
NY METS are 23-40 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 16-34 (-22.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 35-59 (-24.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 25-59 (-24.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 6-3 (+2.5 Units) against NY METS this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.8 Units)

MIKE MINOR vs. NY METS since 1997
MINOR is 4-2 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 5.14 and a WHIP of 1.411.
His team's record is 7-3 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-7. (-5.1 units)

DAISUKE MATSUZAKA vs. ATLANTA since 1997
MATSUZAKA is 1-3 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.000.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-0. (+3.0 units)

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CHICAGO CUBS (38 - 48) at CINCINNATI (45 - 42) - 7:10 PM
EDWIN JACKSON (R) vs. MIKE LEAKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 165-246 (-45.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 40-76 (-23.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 165-246 (-45.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 74-116 (-31.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSON is 28-52 (-22.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
JACKSON is 2-17 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
JACKSON is 27-52 (-24.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
JACKSON is 12-30 (-17.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 32-25 (+17.6 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 34-35 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 350-316 (-78.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 5-3 (+0.7 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.1 Units)

EDWIN JACKSON vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
JACKSON is 4-2 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.81 and a WHIP of 1.268.
His team's record is 4-4 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-3. (+2.0 units)

MIKE LEAKE vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
LEAKE is 7-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.04 and a WHIP of 1.204.
His team's record is 11-3 (+7.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-8. (-3.6 units)

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PHILADELPHIA (37 - 51) at MILWAUKEE (52 - 37) - 8:10 PM
COLE HAMELS (L) vs. MARCO ESTRADA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 110-140 (-31.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 110-138 (-29.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 79-108 (-32.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 96-120 (-31.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
HAMELS is 18-29 (-18.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAMELS is 18-29 (-18.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAMELS is 12-20 (-13.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 52-37 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 52-35 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 88-75 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 22-14 (+8.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 181-169 (+33.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
PHILADELPHIA is 340-357 (+49.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PHILADELPHIA is 374-351 (+38.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
HAMELS is 8-1 (+8.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 3-0 (+3.2 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.2 Units)

COLE HAMELS vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
HAMELS is 7-3 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.070.
His team's record is 7-5 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-5. (+0.6 units)

MARCO ESTRADA vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
ESTRADA is 1-0 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 6.60 and a WHIP of 1.933.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-0. (+3.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (47 - 41) at ST LOUIS (47 - 42) - 8:15 PM
CHARLIE MORTON (R) vs. ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 103-229 (-66.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
ST LOUIS is 119-75 (+23.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 75-39 (+27.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 218-137 (+59.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
WAINWRIGHT is 69-30 (+27.5 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
PITTSBURGH is 144-112 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 142-111 (+25.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 33-21 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 120-93 (+25.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 5-4 (+1.4 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.5 Units)

CHARLIE MORTON vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
MORTON is 2-11 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 5.90 and a WHIP of 1.815.
His team's record is 3-13 (-9.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-9. (-5.1 units)

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 12-5 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.88 and a WHIP of 1.264.
His team's record is 14-8 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 14-4. (+10.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (39 - 49) at COLORADO (37 - 52) - 8:40 PM
IAN KENNEDY (R) vs. TYLER MATZEK (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 39-49 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 39-49 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN DIEGO is 12-21 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
KENNEDY is 5-14 (-10.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 37-52 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 195-260 (-72.0 Units) against the money line in July games since 1997.
COLORADO is 37-52 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
COLORADO is 71-98 (-26.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 45-59 (-24.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 4-3 (+1.0 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

IAN KENNEDY vs. COLORADO since 1997
KENNEDY is 3-4 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.97 and a WHIP of 1.216.
His team's record is 10-6 (+3.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-10. (-6.0 units)

TYLER MATZEK vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (43 - 45) at ARIZONA (37 - 53) - 9:40 PM
TOM KOEHLER (R) vs. CHASE ANDERSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 31-27 (+6.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 37-53 (-15.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 15-28 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ARIZONA is 1-8 (-8.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday this season.
ARIZONA is 37-53 (-15.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 12-20 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 13-22 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
ARIZONA is 4-13 (-10.9 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
ARIZONA is 28-31 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

TOM KOEHLER vs. ARIZONA since 1997
KOEHLER is 0-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.833.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

CHASE ANDERSON vs. MIAMI since 1997
No recent starts.

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NY YANKEES (44 - 43) at CLEVELAND (43 - 44) - 7:05 PM
SHANE GREENE (R) vs. JUSTIN MASTERSON (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

SHANE GREENE vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
No recent starts.

JUSTIN MASTERSON vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
MASTERSON is 4-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.222.
His team's record is 4-4 (+0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (45 - 42) at TAMPA BAY (41 - 50) - 7:10 PM
JAMES SHIELDS (R) vs. JAKE ODORIZZI (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 26-6 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 189-187 (+22.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
KANSAS CITY is 66-59 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 35-24 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
SHIELDS is 19-8 (+11.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 21-8 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 10-3 (+8.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 10-2 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TAMPA BAY is 41-50 (-21.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 8-13 (-11.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
TAMPA BAY is 19-25 (-17.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 6-11 (-10.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less this season.
TAMPA BAY is 19-25 (-17.0 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome this season.
TAMPA BAY is 24-33 (-17.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 19-28 (-20.1 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf this season.
TAMPA BAY is 31-34 (-12.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 9-15 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ODORIZZI is 7-14 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-1 (+1.1 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
SHIELDS is 1-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 0.857.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.1 units)

JAKE ODORIZZI vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
ODORIZZI is 0-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 12.60 and a WHIP of 2.200.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHI WHITE SOX (42 - 47) at BOSTON (39 - 49) - 7:10 PM
SCOTT CARROLL (R) vs. CLAY BUCHHOLZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 105-146 (-27.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 100-140 (-27.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 41-60 (-21.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 70-47 (+15.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
BUCHHOLZ is 29-15 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHI WHITE SOX are 29-28 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 510-534 (+37.4 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHI WHITE SOX are 356-352 (+35.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a win since 1997.
BOSTON is 39-50 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 21-25 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
BOSTON is 37-46 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BOSTON is 29-34 (-10.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BOSTON is 25-34 (-15.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 12-21 (-14.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 2-1 (+0.6 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

SCOTT CARROLL vs. BOSTON since 1997
No recent starts.

CLAY BUCHHOLZ vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
BUCHHOLZ is 2-2 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 4.10 and a WHIP of 1.296.
His team's record is 5-2 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (36 - 54) at TEXAS (38 - 50) - 8:05 PM
JARRED COSART (R) vs. MILES MIKOLAS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 142-271 (-63.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 9-47 (-30.6 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 138-261 (-61.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 51-112 (-32.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 69-40 (+20.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 38-50 (-12.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 18-23 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
TEXAS is 9-16 (-9.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
TEXAS is 12-20 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 37-48 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 24-38 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 86-87 (-16.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-3 (+0.7 Units) against TEXAS this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

JARRED COSART vs. TEXAS since 1997
COSART is 0-1 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.154.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

MILES MIKOLAS vs. HOUSTON since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (47 - 43) at LA ANGELS (51 - 36) - 10:05 PM
J.A. HAPP (L) vs. JERED WEAVER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA ANGELS are 30-10 (+18.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
LA ANGELS are 21-5 (+15.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
WEAVER is 87-36 (+29.5 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
WEAVER is 19-2 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in home games in July games since 1997. (Team's Record)
WEAVER is 87-36 (+29.5 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
WEAVER is 80-41 (+26.1 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
HAPP is 7-1 (+8.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA ANGELS are 145-128 (-61.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 9-20 (-16.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 121-118 (-18.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 51-71 (-21.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA ANGELS is 3-1 (+2.2 Units) against TORONTO this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

J.A. HAPP vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
HAPP is 0-2 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 9.46 and a WHIP of 2.402.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)

JERED WEAVER vs. TORONTO since 1997
WEAVER is 9-2 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 3.48 and a WHIP of 1.078.
His team's record is 9-2 (+6.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-4. (+2.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (39 - 48) at SEATTLE (48 - 40) - 10:10 PM
KEVIN CORREIA (R) vs. HISASHI IWAKUMA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CORREIA is 6-21 (-12.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SEATTLE is 48-40 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 10-1 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday this season.
IWAKUMA is 36-25 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
IWAKUMA is 35-24 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
IWAKUMA is 19-11 (+12.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
MINNESOTA is 57-62 (+27.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
CORREIA is 103-103 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
CORREIA is 100-101 (+19.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
CORREIA is 59-50 (+25.1 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
SEATTLE is 57-67 (-21.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 57-67 (-21.3 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 38-50 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 34-45 (-17.8 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 53-63 (-21.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 321-298 (-74.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-1 (+1.0 Units) against SEATTLE this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

KEVIN CORREIA vs. SEATTLE since 1997
CORREIA is 0-2 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 6.04 and a WHIP of 1.253.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-3. (-2.3 units)

HISASHI IWAKUMA vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
IWAKUMA is 4-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 4-0 (+4.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (48 - 40) at WASHINGTON (48 - 39) - 7:05 PM
CHRIS TILLMAN (R) vs. STEPHEN STRASBURG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 93-62 (+31.2 Units) against the money line in home games in an inter-league game since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 49-40 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 20-14 (+17.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 26-19 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BALTIMORE is 120-102 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 33-22 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 37-27 (+12.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 15-10 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
BALTIMORE is 117-99 (+36.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
TILLMAN is 13-6 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 9-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 30-17 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 25-11 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 18-8 (+12.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 94-86 (-13.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 45-57 (-18.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

CHRIS TILLMAN vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
TILLMAN is 0-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 6.51 and a WHIP of 1.758.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

STEPHEN STRASBURG vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
STRASBURG is 1-0 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (49 - 39) at OAKLAND (55 - 33) - 10:05 PM
RYAN VOGELSONG (R) vs. JESSE CHAVEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-20 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 72-84 (-21.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 55-33 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 132-77 (+35.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 38-17 (+21.0 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 103-52 (+40.9 Units) against the money line in home games in an inter-league game since 1997.
OAKLAND is 53-29 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 92-59 (+19.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 164-114 (+45.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 35-18 (+12.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
OAKLAND is 71-49 (+20.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 25-14 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CHAVEZ is 12-2 (+9.6 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-16 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 178-119 (+53.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-16 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-8 (+7.8 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 13-5 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VOGELSONG is 42-29 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VOGELSONG is 42-28 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VOGELSONG is 29-18 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VOGELSONG is 24-15 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

RYAN VOGELSONG vs. OAKLAND since 1997
VOGELSONG is 1-0 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 3.18 and a WHIP of 1.176.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.0 units)

JESSE CHAVEZ vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
No recent starts.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Tuesday, July 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB betting cheat sheet: Red Sox face big total Monday
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tim Tames Padres

Something about the San Diego Padres brings out the best in Tim Lincecum, who limited them to one run over 6 1/3 innings as San Francisco (+126) prevailed 5-3 Sunday afternoon. Lincecum is 5-0 in his last five starts versus the Padres - a stretch that includes a pair of no-hitters.

Big Total in Beantown

The Boston Red Sox (-180, 10) stare down their largest total of the season Monday as they host the Chicago White Sox. Boston has been one of the most reliable under bets on the season, going 34-51-3 O/U - including a 16-29-0 mark at Fenway Park.

Tanaka Turnaround?

New York Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka looks to bounce back Tuesday as he faces off against the Cleveland Indians. Tanaka allowed four runs over seven innings in a victory over Minnesota last time out, snapping his streak of consecutive quality starts to begin his major-league career at 16.

Pitching Notes

* Kansas City right-hander James Shields looks to halt a three-game losing skid against the moneyline as he takes on the host Tampa Bay Rays (-122, 7) in a Monday night tilt. Shields has been a strong Over play of late, going 8-1 O/U in his previous nine starts - including 5-0 in his last five road outings.

* The Los Angeles Dodgers sent road warrior Hyun-jin Ryu to the hill Tuesday in an interleague encounter in Detroit. Ryu has been one of the most dependable road pitchers in baseball to date, going 6-1 with a 1.62 ERA and a 1-6 O/U record in seven starts away from Dodger Stadium.

Hitting Notes

* Houston Astros rookie outfielder George Springer has had an up-and-down start to his major-league career, racking up 17 homers in 268 at-bats but also striking out a whopping 105 times. Houston is 11-5 SU and 9-7 O/U when Springer goes deep entering Monday's game in Texas (-130, 9.5).

* Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen is on a tear, recording four multi-hit games in his last five outings to bump his average to .324 - good for fourth in the NL. The Pirates, who are 19-11 SU when McCutchen has more than one hit, visit St. Louis on Tuesday night.

Totals Streak

Toronto Blue Jays (1-7 O/U): The Blue Jays offense continues to sag - scoring just four runs in a four-game sweep at the hands of the Oakland Athletics - and could struggle further with the loss of slugger Edwin Encarnacion to a quad injury. Toronto is now 42-45-3 O/U for the year.

Prop of the Day

The Angels may represent the strongest blowout play of the day at +475 to win by five or more runs. The Toronto offense hasn't done much of anything so far on its West Coast swing, and now faces the daunting task of matching up against a Los Angeles team that has won 19 of its last 21 home games.

Injury Notes

* Tampa Bay hurler Jeremy Hellickson will finally make his 2014 debut Tuesday after completing his recovery from elbow surgery. Hellickson went 12-10 with a 5.17 ERA in 32 appearances last season, with the Rays going 18-14 SU and 16-14-2 O/U in those outings.

* Toronto first baseman Edwin Encarnacion is expected to miss 2-4 weeks with a strained quadriceps suffered over the weekend in Oakland. The Blue Jays are 14-6 SU and 14-6 O/U in games in which Encarnacion hits a home run.

Weather Watch

* Fenway Park faithful should expect wind blowing out to center field at 13 mph for Monday's game between the Red Sox and White Sox. Boston went 4-2 SU and 1-5 O/U in six games under similar conditions in 2013, while teams combined to average 8.5 runs - slightly below the stadium average.

* Citi Field will see wind blowing out to right field at 11 mph for Tuesday's showdown between the host New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves. Teams averaged just 6.46 runs while battting .220 in 15 games with the wind blowing out to right last season - well below stadium averages.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Monday, July 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Giants at Athletics
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics (-142, 8)

The annual Bay Bridge Series could have two installments this year. The San Francisco Giants and host Oakland Athletics begin their usual four-game clash Monday, with both teams harboring realistic hopes of a trip to the World Series. The Athletics own the best record in baseball after finishing a four-game sweep of Toronto on Sunday and are 28-15 at home.

Oakland looks to continue its dominant pitching after allowing a total of four runs in four games against the Blue Jays, including a 1-0 win in 12 innings on Friday. San Francisco hopes its recent slide - the Giants lost 18 of 23 to slip out of first place in the National League West - has subsided after winning its final two games in San Diego over the weekend. The Giants will try to score some runs for Ryan Vogelsong as they've been shut out in two games he has started and scored three or fewer runs in 10 of his 17 outings.

TV: 10:05 p.m. ET, NBC Bay Area (San Francisco), CSN California (Oakland)

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the A's as -154 home faves with a total of 8.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (-185), A's (-203)

INJURY REPORT: Giants - 3B Pablo Sandoval (Elbow/Questionable), SS Ehire Adrianza (Hamstring/DL) Athletics - 1B Brandon Moss (Ankle/Questionable)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants RH Ryan Vogelsong (5-5, 3.86 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Jesse Chavez (6-5, 3.23)

Vogelsong has been the picture of tough luck lately, losing his last two times out despite posting quality starts and impressive outings. The 36-year-old held St. Louis to two runs over seven innings on Wednesday but was on the wrong end of a 2-0 decision. Vogelsong is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three starts against the Athletics, most recently facing them in 2012.

Chavez's time in the starting rotation could be coming to a close thanks to the acquisition of Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, as well as the 30-year-old's declining performance of late. He has allowed nine runs in 10 innings over his last two starts, including a loss at Detroit on Wednesday. Chavez is 0-0 with a 7.36 ERA in four relief appearances against the Giants, whom he last faced in 2010.

TRENDS:

*Giants are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings in Oakland.
*Athletics are 21-6 in their last 27 home games.
*Over is 10-3 in Chavezs last 13 starts overall.
*Under is 16-6-1 in the last 23 meetings in Oakland.

CONSENSUS: 53 percent of Covers users are taking the Giants +142.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Tuesday, July 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB weekend series: Five key takeaways
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It is time to once again take a trip around the weekend MLB Bases from Point Blank range, isolating key issues that can be of major advantage to your bankroll in the days ahead.

Twins – On the “relative” value of Joe Mauer

There is going to be a common theme running through several takes this time around - the way that so much misleading information is part of the daily sports mediaverse, and how you should not only learn to avoid the traps, but to actually profit from the novellas that get written. There is a continuous flow of numbers that can make for good stories, but do not capture Baseball’s truths.

It was natural for the Yankees/Twins to be part of the ESPN package on the 4th of July, and when their lead announcer was running down the Minnesota batting order there came the expected – “Boy do they look a lot different without Joe Mauer in the lineup”. And it is natural – Mauer has been a star for a long time, and the predominant face of the current Twins franchise. But from a power ratings perspective, his absence may not be all that significant. It is time to grasp another aspect of Baseball that will help you to reach deeper inside the game.

Mauer has had a great career as a catcher, being chosen for the All Star game six times, and four times in a five-year period between 2006 through 2010 he finished in the Top 10 of all players in WAR, including a #2 in 2009. But now his power is declining, which is a genuine Part I of this that all can see. What many will not acknowledge is the Part II of what “catcher” means in a key context.

First, the loss in voltage from his bat. Mauer’s .271/.342/.353 over 339 PA’s is easily a career low across the board (his overall .320/.401/.461 will still have him in Hall of Fame running), and some of those lows are very low. His SLG is 30.6 percent below that career standard, and it may be affecting his plate approach - his BB% is off 20 percent from his established rate, while his K% is up an almost shocking 38.6. For a player to fall of that far in those latter two categories, this deep into a season is rare.

Now for a deeper look at what that impact means. A team can still be OK with Mauer’s numbers if he is penciled in behind the plate. But to prolong his career the Twins have moved him to 1B, and a team will struggle to win at the MLB level with limited power from that position. The SLG% so far this season is .432 for 1B, compared to .385 for catchers. Teams are getting an average of 16 HR and 59.9 rbi from the 1B position, compared to 9.3 and 41.4 from catchers. Only three teams, the Royals, Pirates and Astros, sport a lower SLG% from 1B than what Mauer has produced.

Filling in at 1B will mostly be Chris Parmelee, who does not bring any magic, but does sport nearly double the HR rate of Mauer over the past two seasons. Parmelee has contact issues (a career 23.3 percent K rate), and as such will not hit for much average. But he at least brings respectable power counts to the position, and in the context of a MLB offense, that really does matter. When assigning a rating to Mauer, you need to lower him not only because his bat is in decline, but also because the relative importance of that bat when playing 1B changes considerably. As such, his absence through the All Star break may not be of all that much impact on the overall Minnesota offense.

Nationals – The reality of Tanner Roark’s H/A splits

And now more from the Friday sports mediaverse, with an added lesson that should be at the uppermost of your handicapping consciousness - if you really want to win, you must go beyond the first layer of statistics. Not only does that take you to where the real edges reside; you can become a beneficiary of the simplicity by which so much misleading information gets passed forward, and ultimately ends up shaping betting markets.

On Friday the sound was turned up before the Cubs/Nationals first pitch, since it was the only game going on at the time. And of course here came the predictable “Tanner Roark has pitched much better at home this season” offerings from the announcer. Given that Roark had a 1.59 at Nationals Park, vs. 4.44 on the road, it was an easy statement to make. Except that it was not true. The fact that the Cubs went on to knock Roark around is immaterial; what does matter is how that “first layer” of statistics can take you down the wrong path.

OK, Roark sported a much better ERA at home than away entering Friday, and still does. But had he actually “pitched” better? His WHIP was almost identical, 1.16 home vs. 1.15 away. Then take a look at his K-to-BB rate – only 34:16 from the D.C. mound, vs. 40:8 as a visitor. A case can be made that he might have actually thrown better pitches on the road, but did not get the natural flow of results, which Baseball can do over small samples.

Even after Friday’s subpar outing, Roark’s career tallies show a 1.63 ERA at home vs. 3.47 on the road, which will continue to be a narrative from announcers and writers. Yet his career home WHIP is 1.10, vs. 1.07 on the road, and at home it is 2.3 K-per-BB, compared to 5.1 on the road. There simply is not anything to indicate that a genuine bias exists for him, and you should adjust your own ratings accordingly.

Rangers – A Yu Darvish “train” of thought

Staying with the theme, how about even more fodder that we are all likely to hear from the mediaverse later this week, and view in the stat tables until the end of time – the struggles of Darvish against the Mets on Friday night. He gave up a two-run HR to Lucas Duda in the 1st inning; labored to 94 pitches over five frames, 35 missing the strike zone; and posted a single-game 7.20 ERA. Over the past two seasons, that single-game count had been reached once in 40 starts against teams other than Oakland (his issues vs. the A’s have previously been a topic for deeper analysis on these pages).

Think of how many different ways that game can be of an impact. First is the matter of a short-term “slump”. Then all of the data-base categories the stats get cemented into. But what if the result was of absolutely no value whatsoever in terms of rating him as a pitcher? Much as we all want as many numbers as possible to work with, some games simply provide rubbish that should be discarded.

Here is the gist. Originally Darvish was to have pitched vs. Baltimore on Thursday, on his normal amount of rest. But there were thunderstorms in the area causing a rain delay at the start, and threatening to potentially cause another later. Ron Washington gambled and scratched Darvish, with reasonable savvy – you hate to waste your best arm if he was only going to work a couple of innings, and then have to sit through a long delay that he might not be able to return from. The mistake by Washington was in making him the starter the very next night in New York.

For a starting pitcher to work after traveling the night before is an extreme rarity. Starters for the first game of a road series are universally sent ahead of the team to the next city, and when there is no travel involved they often will leave a game early the previous day, to get plenty of rest. What Darvish was doing was outside of that norm, and ensuing circumstances made it even worse. Because of the weather air traffic schedules were jumbled, so the Rangers hustled him, along with his interpreter, on to a train to New York, instead of having him sit through the game in Baltimore and later travel with the team. But a power outage in the Philadelphia area led to a 90-minute delay during his trip, and Darvish only made it to the team hotel 20 minutes before the rest of the Rangers arrived (having chartered buses post-game in Baltimore).

The pitcher that took the mound against the Mets was a far cry from the ace that he has been. But the circumstances surrounding the game were so out of the ordinary that the box score might be worthless. Hence why keeping your own numbers is important, and if you do that there is nothing wrong at all with simply deleting that game. It will put you a step ahead of those that try to read some kind of meaning into it (if anything, you might want to focus on the “pride” aspect of Darvish working to a 1.99 the past two seasons in 10 starts immediately after allowing four runs or more).

White Sox – There is much to like, from Jose Quintana

Now for a take in which the focus is not on media attention, but rather the lack of it. Perhaps it was fitting that Quintana got a start the day after the 4th of July, after the fireworks have been put away. There has been little market sizzle when he pitches, despite the fact that there is so much to like. And after once again failing to get a Win because of a lack of support, it is time to take a closer look while the betting markets lag behind.

Why the lack of excitement? Quintana’s 5-7/3.20 this season naturally does not jump off the charts, nor does his 20-20/3.51 career line. But there are some intriguing aspects to his early arc. He was decent in 2012 at 6-6/3.76, and you can give him more than a passing grade for that because he was promoted without ever throwing a pitch at the AAA level, and in fact only 48 2/3 IP at AA. Then came the 9-7/3.51 of LY, when his ERA, FIP, xFIP, K-per-9 and BB-per-9 rates all got better, a nice across-the-board progression. Which takes us to what is at the heart of the matter in terms of evaluating him – in 2014, once again the ERA, FIP, xFIP and K-per-9 rates have improved, while BB-per-9 is just a slight tick (2.56 vs. 2.52) behind LY.

Much of this gets little notice because the White Sox have not supported him well – in 14 of his L16 starts he has been backed with four runs or less, the defense is ordinary, and the bullpen less than that. For some perspective, of the 122 pitchers that have worked at least 70 IP, his 2.88 FIP checks in at #14, and a 3.31 xFIP would rate #29. That is not likely where you have him pegged. There is not a flaw to be found through the peripherals, with enough pop to throw the ball by batters, plus a ground-ball rate good enough to withstand HR tendencies of his home ball-park. Perhaps most important for a young pitcher is that the consistency has been there – in 15 of 18 starts he has allowed three ER or less, but Chicago has only managed to go 7-11 in those games.

The White Sox are not going to be contenders, so Quintana will likely remain off to the side of the market radar screens. That should mean plenty of value opportunities over the second half of the schedule, and pay particular attention to the Run Line – 13 of his 51 starts the L2 seasons have resulted in a one-run Chicago loss. That way you are relying more on him to keep the team in the game, than the rest of the roster to find a way to win it.

Padres – About those Odrisamer Despaigne “fireworks”

While Quintana above is doing a lot of things right that are not quite translating to the bottom line he deserves, there is already a quick buzz surrounding Despaigne, which can happen when someone enters the scene with a 2-0/0.92 over his first three starts. But much like with bees, if you get too close to that buzz you may get stung.

Despaigne’s back-story lends color to the recent performances that puts him even more in the spotlight. He defected from the Cuban national team on a trip to Europe in 2013, becoming a legal resident of Spain. He then made his way across the Atlantic, and was signed by San Diego in early May. After a cup of coffee at AA, he worked to an inauspicious 1-3/6.85 at AAA El Paso, but with the Padres needing rotation help when Andrew Cashner went on the DL, he got the call-up.

Since then it has seemingly been magic – he has allowed only two runs over 19 2.3 IP, and if not for Huston Street’s first blown save of the season on Saturday night, he would be 3-0. And in truth it has been a rather magical ride, but not necessarily the one that someone would draw up for a movie. It has only been some of Baseball’s sleight of hand.

First a few presets – Despaigne does have an awkward delivery and a variety of pitches, and as such would fittingly be tough to read on the first look, before becoming more vulnerable as scouting video got out. Second, all of his innings have been in two of the best pitcher’s parks in the sport, Petco and AT&T (Giants). Third, those innings have come vs. struggling Giant and Diamondback offenses. And fourth, the dice have rolled awfully well for him.

Despaigne only has five K over those 19 2/3, compared to eight BB (he is the only pitcher in a span of six weeks to have walked Aaron Hill!) That is an awful ratio, and note the “second look” aspect that was evident vs. San Francisco – in the first meeting vs. the Giants he did not walk any of the 23 batters he faced, and 59 of 86 pitches (68.6 percent) found the strike zone. In the rematch, it was four BB of 23 batters, and only 56.3 percent in the zone. As for his Swing Strike%, it is a minuscule 4.1, even though he had two full games of “first look” already. How bad is that? Of the 124 pitchers that have worked at least 70 IP, only Kevin Correia’s 4.7 is even close. What Despaigne has survived off of has been the roulette of batted balls finding gloves, a .169 BABIP that can happen in a short cycle, but will not last.

Can Despaigne be a legit MLB starter? He is already 27, so he has had a lot of innings to develop his repertoire. But is he going to be a phenom, which an only cursory look at those first three games might indicate? That is highly unlikely. If the marketplace gets carried away, it could create some serious value pretty quickly.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB

Monday, July 7


Brandon Moss, Oakland - Ques Mon

Moss has sprained left ankle and has missed the last two games. An MRI showed that there is no structural damage and he is questionable to return on Monday against the Giants.


Indians, Masterson rolling at home

Cleveland Indians pitcher Justin Masterson has been feeling right at home at Progressive Field lately. In the righty's last six starts in Cleveland, the Tribe is 5-1. Masterson will be on the mound when the Tribe hosts the New York Yankees Monday.

The Indians are currently -145 faves with a total of nine.


Lines on the move in Pirates-Cardinals matchup

The moneyline number and total in Monday's matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals has been on the move since post.

Online sportsbook 5Dimes.eu opened the Cards as -190 home faves with a total of 6.5 Sunday, but that has moved all the way to -158 with the total currently up to 7.5.

Charlie Morton is scheduled to get the ball for the Bucs while Adam Wainwright is slated to pitch for the Cardinals.


Reds keep dominating Cubs with Leake on mound

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Mike Leake has been feasting on the light-hitting Chicago Cubs lineup recently, evidenced by the Reds posting a 5-0 record in his last five starts versus the North Siders. Leake will go for six-in-a-row when he gets the ball against the Cubbies at Great American Ball Park Monday.

Cincy is currently -164 favorites on the moneyline with an O/U of eight.


Sixth-worst money pitcher in action Monday

Tampa Bay Rays backers have been losing big with Jake Odorizzi starting this season. Through Monday, the righty ranks as the sixth-worst money pitcher in baseball with an ugly $-717. Odorizzi gets the start when the Rays host the Kansas City Royals Monday.

Tampa Bay is currently -122 faves with a total of seven.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, July 7

Atlanta at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Minor: ATLANTA 39-21 in road games against division opponents
Matsuzaka: NY METS 23-46 as a home underdog

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Jackson: 2-17 TSR in road games against division opponents
Leake: CINCINNATI 39-17 as a home favorite of -125 to -175

Philadelphia at Milwaukee, 8:10 ET
Hamels: 18-29 TSR in all games
Estrada: MILWAUKEE 22-14 after a loss
Ben Burns Underdog of the Year is available for Monday

Pittsburgh at St Louis, 8:15 ET
Morton: 16-37 TSR as an underdog of +100 to +150
Wainwright: 69-30 TSR after a loss

San Diego at Colorado, 8:40 ET
Kennedy: 5-14 against division opponents
Matzek: COLORADO 11-3 OVER after allowing 8 runs or more

Miami at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Koehler: MIAMI 10-1 UNDER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10
Arizona: ARIZONA 10-17 as a favorite

NY Yankees at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Greene: NY YANKEES 64-42 UNDER after one or more consecutive overs
Masterson: 13-1 TSR after 2 or more consecutive wins

Kansas City at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Shields: 21-8 TSR in road games
Odorizzi: 7-14 TSR in all games
Check out Big Al's MLB Division Game of the Month

Chicago White Sox at Boston, 7:10 ET
Carroll: CHI WHITE SOX 10-34 after a game with a combined score of 4 runs or less
Buchholz: BOSTON 70-47 after a loss

Houston at Texas, 8:05 ET
Cosart: HOUSTON 51-112 after a loss
Mikolas: TEXAS 69-40 against division opponents

Toronto at LA Angles, 10:05 ET
Happ: TORONTO 15-7 OVER after 4 or more consecutive road games
Weaver: 80-41 TSR after a win

Minnesota at Seattle, 10:10 ET
Correia: 6-21 TSR in night games
Iwakuma: 19-11 TSR after a loss

Baltimore at Washington, 7:05ET
Tillman: 7-0 TSR as a road underdog of +125 to +175
Strasburg: 10-15 TSR as a favorite of -125 to -175

San Francisco at Oakland, 10:05 ET
Vogelsong: 13-6 (+9.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150
Chavez: OAKLAND 22-8 UNDER in July games

 

[CNOTES]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

07/06/14 11-*17-*0 39.29% -*3230 Detail
07/05/14 14-*18-*0 43.75% -*2870 Detail
07/04/14 13-*12-*1 52.00% +*190 Detail
07/03/14 8-*10-*0 44.44% -*1400 Detail
07/02/14 19-*10-*1 65.52% +*4020 Detail
07/01/14 17-*12-*1 58.62% +*2460 Detail

Totals 82-*79-*3 50.93% -*830




Rated Plays As Of 07/06

*****.......................... 7 - 9 ...........................-3.16

DOUBLE PLAY...................5 - 9 ...........................- 6.40

TRIPLE PLAY....................8 - 11 ...........................-7.49


Monday, July 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Baltimore - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +164 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Washington - Over 7.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 7:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox +174 500
Boston - Over 10 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Atlanta - 7:10 PM ET Atlanta -125 500
NY Mets - Over 7.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati -164 500 *****
Cincinnati - Under 8 500

NY Yankees - 7:10 PM ET Cleveland -145 500
Cleveland - Under 9 500

Kansas City - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -120 500
Tampa Bay - Over 7 500

Houston - 8:05 PM ET Houston +120 500 *****
Texas - Under 9.5 500

Philadelphia - 8:10 PM ET Milwaukee -122 500
Milwaukee - Over 8 500

Pittsburgh - 8:15 PM ET St. Louis -162 500
St. Louis - Under 7.5 500

San Diego - 8:40 PM ET San Diego +106 500
Colorado - Under 10.5 500

Miami - 9:40 PM ET Miami +100 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Arizona - Under 9 500

Toronto - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -162 500
LA Angels - Under 8.5 500

San Francisco - 10:05 PM ET Oakland -153 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Oakland - Over 7.5 500

Minnesota - 10:10 PM ET Minnesota +192 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Seattle - Over 7 500

 

[CNOTES]

Rated Plays As Of 07/07

*****.......................... 9 - 9 ...........................-0.96

DOUBLE PLAY...................6 - 10 ...........................- 5.12

TRIPLE PLAY....................9 - 13 ...........................-10.49


All games including rated games:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

07/07/14 13-*15-*0 46.43% -*1190 Detail
07/06/14 12-*18-*0 40.00% -*3230 Detail
07/05/14 14-*18-*0 43.75% -*2870 Detail
07/04/14 13-*12-*1 52.00% +*190 Detail
07/03/14 8-*10-*0 44.44% -*1400 Detail
07/02/14 19-*10-*1 65.52% +*4020 Detail
07/01/14 17-*12-*1 58.62% +*2460 Detail

Totals 96-*95-*3 50.26% -*2020

 

[CNOTES]

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

July 8, 2014


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Nationals are 10-0 since August 09, 2013 as a home favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $1000.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- Vance Worley has produced a team record of 8-0 (+$800) following a starter where he allowed four or fewer hits.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Mets are 1-12 ($+1,088) since August 22, 2007 as a home dog when they are off a walk off win.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 10-0 since June 05, 2011 as a home favorite after a win that was tied after six innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- When Johnny Cueto starts the Reds are 19-3 since June 22, 2011 as a home favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $1410.