AFC South Outlook
August 1, 2016
West It is a bit hard to believe that the Colts from the AFC South opened the 2015 season as the AFC favorites. This season, the expectations are grounded for the division as a whole with relatively difficult schedules outside of the division and 9-7 being enough to take the title in 2015. Here is a look at some of the staff changes and key position battles for the AFC South for 2016.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 (-130 OVER, EVEN UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 2/1
Odds to win the AFC: 18/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 33/1
STAFF CHANGES: Despite winning the AFC South last season, the Texans made a few coaching moves, firing Bob Ligashesky as special teams coordinator, a holdover from Gary Kubiak’s staff. Wide receivers coach Stan Hixton followed Bill O’Brien from Penn State, but was released after last season. Mike Vrabel was allegedly offered the defensive coordinator position in San Francisco, but he opted to stay put as linebackers coach while Sean Ryan and Anthony Weaver are new position coach hires. Larry Izzo is the new special teams coordinator, having spent the last five seasons with the Giants.
KEY POSITON BATTLE: Running Back
Arian Foster is no longer with the Texans as the incredibly productive but often-injured running back has moved on and signed with Miami. Ironically, Houston is replacing Foster with Lamar Miller, who was the main running back for the Dolphins last season. Alfred Blue had several strong fill-in performances last season, but he may wind up being a career back-up. Seeking more of a change-of-pace back, the Texans will hope to see improvement from Jonathan Grimes who had 282 yards last season but isn’t a lock to make the roster. A more dynamic option might be rookie Tyler Ervin, who was a fourth round pick out of San Jose State, while Akeem Hunt will also see some preseason snaps after bouncing between three teams as an undrafted rookie out of Purdue last season.
OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: There should be a true competition in the kicking game for the Texans as while Nick Novak was adequate last season, rookie Ka’imi Fairbairn was a prolific college kicker for UCLA and figures to have greater range. If J.J. Watt misses time, defensive end will be a position with questions as Jared Crick signed with Denver and there is an open starting spot opposite Watt. Christian Covington may be moved from the interior while Jeoffrey Pagan remains on the roster. Devon Still and Brandon Dunn are also new additions that will compete for a rotation spot.
SEASON OUTLOOK: Winning the AFC South was a great accomplishment for the Texans last season in Bill O’Brien’s second season, but a 30-0 home loss in the playoffs was a sour finish to the season. The success of Houston will hinge on new quarterback Brock Osweiler, the latest attempt to solidify the position that the franchise has struggled to find stability at in its entire existence. Houston was just 9-7 last season and in the AFC South, that might again be enough for a division title with a grouping that figures to be a bit more balanced with improvement from Tennessee and Jacksonville very possible. The draws of the NFC North and AFC West will make for a tough overall schedule for Houston and as has been the case in recent years the matchups with the Colts may decide the division.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (EVEN OVER, -130 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 7/5
Odds to win the AFC: 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 28/1
STAFF CHANGES: There was some speculation that Chuck Pagano could be fired after the Colts opened the season as the AFC favorites last year and finished just 8-8. Big changes were made on defense as Greg Manusky was fired as defensive coordinator along with several position coaches. Recall that in the middle of the season offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was fired, as under Pagano the 2016 season will start with almost a completely new set of assistants. Former Ravens assistant Ted Monachino is the new defensive coordinator and will run Pagano’s scheme. Higher profile assistants are joining the team on offense with former Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin coaching the offensive line and Brian Schottenheimer coaching the quarterbacks while former Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski the new offensive coordinator.
KEY POSITON BATTLE: Right Guard
Hugh Thornton started at right guard last season and injuries have plagued him heading into his fourth season with the team. Thornton will have an opportunity to retain the starting spot and likely get a hefty contract after the season or he could fall out of favor. Denzelle Good played at tackle last season, but was impressive in his rookie season and the team sees him as a potential replacement at guard, though an injury has kept him out of action in the early summer. Jonotthan Harrison has been the team’s center in recent years, but Ryan Kelly is taking that spot leaving Harrison as a potential replacement at guard. Joe Haeg was a fifth round pick as a tackle but has mostly been working as a guard since joining the Colts.
OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Jerrell Freeman signed with the Bears to leave an opening at inside linebacker. Nate Irving was next in line on the roster last season, starting two games while starting significantly for the Broncos in 2014. Sio Moore was acquired just before the start of last season, but he did not earn consistent playing time and figures to be in a clear competition for the spot. Antonio Morrison was picked up in the fourth round of the draft, but an injury has kept him from realistically joining the competition at this point. The defensive line and receiver depth will also have some sorting out to do for the Colts, who will have five preseason games as they are in the early August Hall of Fame game to open the season.
SEASON OUTLOOK: While the Colts were just 8-8 last season, the expectations will be in line with the previous three 11-5 seasons under Andrew Luck and Pagano. Owner Jim Irsay is known for the potential for bold decisions and if the season does not start out strong, changes could be made. Indianapolis has a favorable early slate with many of the toughest games in the second half as that scenario doesn’t seem likely, but Luck has to prove he is healthy and ready to take a leap after the step backwards last season while being injured. The South remains one of the weaker divisions in the league as it won’t likely take a great season to win the division, but after an AFC Championship appearance two seasons ago the bar is set high for a team that had a lot of problems last season and turned over most of the staff.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (-125 OVER, -105 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 3/1
Odds to win the AFC: 22/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1
STAFF CHANGES: Gus Bradley is just 12-36 in three seasons leading the Jaguars, but ownership has been patient although this figures to be a critical season for the team to show improvement even with Bradley getting an extension through 2017. Jacksonville did make a major change on defense with Todd Wash replacing Bob Babich as the defensive coordinator. Wash has been with the team all three seasons under Bradley as the defensive line coach as it won’t likely be a major transition. There were some other minor moves for in assistant roles for position coaches, but much of the staff from last season is in place.
KEY POSITON BATTLE: Left Tackle
The key position on the offensive line will be under the microscope for the Jaguars in August. Luke Joeckel was the #2 pick in the 2013 draft, but he missed most of that season with an ankle injury. His 2014 season was forgettable and while he made 14 starts at left tackle last season, his starting spot may be in jeopardy. Kelvin Beachum is the best candidate to unseat as a free agent signing from the Steelers, working his way from being a seventh round pick out of SMU into 39 starts the past three years. Veteran Mackenzy Bernadeau was also picked up by the Jaguars with eight years of experience and versatility at the line positions.
OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: T.J. Yeldon had a solid rookie season and figures to be coveted fantasy running back this summer, but veteran Chris Ivory might still wind up as the starter based on his experience and red zone success. Both will play significantly but Yeldon may not get the touches many will expect in his second season. The Jacksonville offense also features a pair of college wide receiver stars in play for the slot position with Marqise Lee and Rashad Greene in a head-to-head battle. Lee has been hurt for portions of his first two seasons and while Greene made a few dynamic plays in his rookie season he ultimately had just 19 receptions plus a punt return touchdown. The defensive line rotation and the strong safety positions also have some question marks at this point for the Jaguars.
SEASON OUTLOOK: On paper, Jacksonville is starting to look like a team that can seriously compete in the AFC South despite a long stretch of losing for the franchise. Blake Bortles will be in his third season as the starting quarterback and there is a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball. Expectations are definitely elevated and while Jacksonville likely doesn’t need a playoff run for 2016 to be considered a success, getting close to .500 is reasonable goal and the opportunity should be there for this squad.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Over/Under Win Total: 5.5 (-155 OVER, +125 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 10/1
Odds to win the AFC: 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1
STAFF CHANGES: Ken Whisenhunt was fired mid-season and his replacement Mike Mularkey had the interim tag removed as he will lead the Titans in 2016, his third stint as a head coach as he coached the Bills for two seasons in 2004 and 2005 as well as the Jaguars in 2012. His career record is just 18-39 and he promoted long-time Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau to that position moving forward as well as retaining his distinction as assistant head coach. Terry Robiskie was twice an interim head coach before settling in as a wide receivers coach the last decade, mainly with the Falcons. Robiskie will be the offensive coordinator for the Titans this season while there is a change at special teams as well with Bobby April taking over having held that role for the Rams, Bills, Eagles, Raiders, and Jets the last 15 years.
KEY POSITON BATTLE: Running Back
DeMarco Murray is presumably the starter after the Titans struck a deal to acquire the 2014 season’s leading rusher. Alabama star Derrick Henry was also the team’s second round pick and the Heisman Trophy winner will certainly be watched closely. Bishop Sankey was the team’s second round pick in 2014 and while he has underwhelmed with just 762 yards in two seasons, he still has some potential and is likely more comfortable in the passing game. David Cobb was also a prolific college rusher for Minnesota and while he was injured much of his rookie season, he did have some positive production late in the season when given an opportunity. Taking pressure of Marcus Mariota will be critical for Tennessee as the team will need to get strong running back play to have success.
OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: The Titans have several veterans with experience at wide receiver, but the pecking order isn’t particularly clear. Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, and Justin Hunter figure to be the top three receivers but Dorial Green-Beckham had a productive rookie season and Rishard Matthews had 43 catches for the Dolphins last season. It is a deep group but perhaps lacking a standout leader. Brian Orakpo leads the linebacker corps but rookie Kevin Dodd joins Davis Bass and Derrick Morgan on the depth chart in what will be a key spot for the defense.
SEASON OUTLOOK: The Titans are projected to finish at the bottom of the AFC after finishing just 3-13 last season, but the offense had a handful of big games last season and improvement on the defense seems likely. The AFC South would be one the most likely divisions to produce an unexpected winner and the Titans lost six games by a touchdown or less last season despite all the changes and injuries. Tennessee is probably a year or two away from a serious push for the division, but the Titans are also a candidate to surprise especially with a pretty favorable first half schedule.
August 1, 2016
West It is a bit hard to believe that the Colts from the AFC South opened the 2015 season as the AFC favorites. This season, the expectations are grounded for the division as a whole with relatively difficult schedules outside of the division and 9-7 being enough to take the title in 2015. Here is a look at some of the staff changes and key position battles for the AFC South for 2016.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 (-130 OVER, EVEN UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 2/1
Odds to win the AFC: 18/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 33/1
STAFF CHANGES: Despite winning the AFC South last season, the Texans made a few coaching moves, firing Bob Ligashesky as special teams coordinator, a holdover from Gary Kubiak’s staff. Wide receivers coach Stan Hixton followed Bill O’Brien from Penn State, but was released after last season. Mike Vrabel was allegedly offered the defensive coordinator position in San Francisco, but he opted to stay put as linebackers coach while Sean Ryan and Anthony Weaver are new position coach hires. Larry Izzo is the new special teams coordinator, having spent the last five seasons with the Giants.
KEY POSITON BATTLE: Running Back
Arian Foster is no longer with the Texans as the incredibly productive but often-injured running back has moved on and signed with Miami. Ironically, Houston is replacing Foster with Lamar Miller, who was the main running back for the Dolphins last season. Alfred Blue had several strong fill-in performances last season, but he may wind up being a career back-up. Seeking more of a change-of-pace back, the Texans will hope to see improvement from Jonathan Grimes who had 282 yards last season but isn’t a lock to make the roster. A more dynamic option might be rookie Tyler Ervin, who was a fourth round pick out of San Jose State, while Akeem Hunt will also see some preseason snaps after bouncing between three teams as an undrafted rookie out of Purdue last season.
OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: There should be a true competition in the kicking game for the Texans as while Nick Novak was adequate last season, rookie Ka’imi Fairbairn was a prolific college kicker for UCLA and figures to have greater range. If J.J. Watt misses time, defensive end will be a position with questions as Jared Crick signed with Denver and there is an open starting spot opposite Watt. Christian Covington may be moved from the interior while Jeoffrey Pagan remains on the roster. Devon Still and Brandon Dunn are also new additions that will compete for a rotation spot.
SEASON OUTLOOK: Winning the AFC South was a great accomplishment for the Texans last season in Bill O’Brien’s second season, but a 30-0 home loss in the playoffs was a sour finish to the season. The success of Houston will hinge on new quarterback Brock Osweiler, the latest attempt to solidify the position that the franchise has struggled to find stability at in its entire existence. Houston was just 9-7 last season and in the AFC South, that might again be enough for a division title with a grouping that figures to be a bit more balanced with improvement from Tennessee and Jacksonville very possible. The draws of the NFC North and AFC West will make for a tough overall schedule for Houston and as has been the case in recent years the matchups with the Colts may decide the division.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (EVEN OVER, -130 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 7/5
Odds to win the AFC: 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 28/1
STAFF CHANGES: There was some speculation that Chuck Pagano could be fired after the Colts opened the season as the AFC favorites last year and finished just 8-8. Big changes were made on defense as Greg Manusky was fired as defensive coordinator along with several position coaches. Recall that in the middle of the season offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was fired, as under Pagano the 2016 season will start with almost a completely new set of assistants. Former Ravens assistant Ted Monachino is the new defensive coordinator and will run Pagano’s scheme. Higher profile assistants are joining the team on offense with former Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin coaching the offensive line and Brian Schottenheimer coaching the quarterbacks while former Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski the new offensive coordinator.
KEY POSITON BATTLE: Right Guard
Hugh Thornton started at right guard last season and injuries have plagued him heading into his fourth season with the team. Thornton will have an opportunity to retain the starting spot and likely get a hefty contract after the season or he could fall out of favor. Denzelle Good played at tackle last season, but was impressive in his rookie season and the team sees him as a potential replacement at guard, though an injury has kept him out of action in the early summer. Jonotthan Harrison has been the team’s center in recent years, but Ryan Kelly is taking that spot leaving Harrison as a potential replacement at guard. Joe Haeg was a fifth round pick as a tackle but has mostly been working as a guard since joining the Colts.
OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Jerrell Freeman signed with the Bears to leave an opening at inside linebacker. Nate Irving was next in line on the roster last season, starting two games while starting significantly for the Broncos in 2014. Sio Moore was acquired just before the start of last season, but he did not earn consistent playing time and figures to be in a clear competition for the spot. Antonio Morrison was picked up in the fourth round of the draft, but an injury has kept him from realistically joining the competition at this point. The defensive line and receiver depth will also have some sorting out to do for the Colts, who will have five preseason games as they are in the early August Hall of Fame game to open the season.
SEASON OUTLOOK: While the Colts were just 8-8 last season, the expectations will be in line with the previous three 11-5 seasons under Andrew Luck and Pagano. Owner Jim Irsay is known for the potential for bold decisions and if the season does not start out strong, changes could be made. Indianapolis has a favorable early slate with many of the toughest games in the second half as that scenario doesn’t seem likely, but Luck has to prove he is healthy and ready to take a leap after the step backwards last season while being injured. The South remains one of the weaker divisions in the league as it won’t likely take a great season to win the division, but after an AFC Championship appearance two seasons ago the bar is set high for a team that had a lot of problems last season and turned over most of the staff.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (-125 OVER, -105 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 3/1
Odds to win the AFC: 22/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1
STAFF CHANGES: Gus Bradley is just 12-36 in three seasons leading the Jaguars, but ownership has been patient although this figures to be a critical season for the team to show improvement even with Bradley getting an extension through 2017. Jacksonville did make a major change on defense with Todd Wash replacing Bob Babich as the defensive coordinator. Wash has been with the team all three seasons under Bradley as the defensive line coach as it won’t likely be a major transition. There were some other minor moves for in assistant roles for position coaches, but much of the staff from last season is in place.
KEY POSITON BATTLE: Left Tackle
The key position on the offensive line will be under the microscope for the Jaguars in August. Luke Joeckel was the #2 pick in the 2013 draft, but he missed most of that season with an ankle injury. His 2014 season was forgettable and while he made 14 starts at left tackle last season, his starting spot may be in jeopardy. Kelvin Beachum is the best candidate to unseat as a free agent signing from the Steelers, working his way from being a seventh round pick out of SMU into 39 starts the past three years. Veteran Mackenzy Bernadeau was also picked up by the Jaguars with eight years of experience and versatility at the line positions.
OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: T.J. Yeldon had a solid rookie season and figures to be coveted fantasy running back this summer, but veteran Chris Ivory might still wind up as the starter based on his experience and red zone success. Both will play significantly but Yeldon may not get the touches many will expect in his second season. The Jacksonville offense also features a pair of college wide receiver stars in play for the slot position with Marqise Lee and Rashad Greene in a head-to-head battle. Lee has been hurt for portions of his first two seasons and while Greene made a few dynamic plays in his rookie season he ultimately had just 19 receptions plus a punt return touchdown. The defensive line rotation and the strong safety positions also have some question marks at this point for the Jaguars.
SEASON OUTLOOK: On paper, Jacksonville is starting to look like a team that can seriously compete in the AFC South despite a long stretch of losing for the franchise. Blake Bortles will be in his third season as the starting quarterback and there is a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball. Expectations are definitely elevated and while Jacksonville likely doesn’t need a playoff run for 2016 to be considered a success, getting close to .500 is reasonable goal and the opportunity should be there for this squad.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Over/Under Win Total: 5.5 (-155 OVER, +125 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 10/1
Odds to win the AFC: 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1
STAFF CHANGES: Ken Whisenhunt was fired mid-season and his replacement Mike Mularkey had the interim tag removed as he will lead the Titans in 2016, his third stint as a head coach as he coached the Bills for two seasons in 2004 and 2005 as well as the Jaguars in 2012. His career record is just 18-39 and he promoted long-time Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau to that position moving forward as well as retaining his distinction as assistant head coach. Terry Robiskie was twice an interim head coach before settling in as a wide receivers coach the last decade, mainly with the Falcons. Robiskie will be the offensive coordinator for the Titans this season while there is a change at special teams as well with Bobby April taking over having held that role for the Rams, Bills, Eagles, Raiders, and Jets the last 15 years.
KEY POSITON BATTLE: Running Back
DeMarco Murray is presumably the starter after the Titans struck a deal to acquire the 2014 season’s leading rusher. Alabama star Derrick Henry was also the team’s second round pick and the Heisman Trophy winner will certainly be watched closely. Bishop Sankey was the team’s second round pick in 2014 and while he has underwhelmed with just 762 yards in two seasons, he still has some potential and is likely more comfortable in the passing game. David Cobb was also a prolific college rusher for Minnesota and while he was injured much of his rookie season, he did have some positive production late in the season when given an opportunity. Taking pressure of Marcus Mariota will be critical for Tennessee as the team will need to get strong running back play to have success.
OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: The Titans have several veterans with experience at wide receiver, but the pecking order isn’t particularly clear. Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, and Justin Hunter figure to be the top three receivers but Dorial Green-Beckham had a productive rookie season and Rishard Matthews had 43 catches for the Dolphins last season. It is a deep group but perhaps lacking a standout leader. Brian Orakpo leads the linebacker corps but rookie Kevin Dodd joins Davis Bass and Derrick Morgan on the depth chart in what will be a key spot for the defense.
SEASON OUTLOOK: The Titans are projected to finish at the bottom of the AFC after finishing just 3-13 last season, but the offense had a handful of big games last season and improvement on the defense seems likely. The AFC South would be one the most likely divisions to produce an unexpected winner and the Titans lost six games by a touchdown or less last season despite all the changes and injuries. Tennessee is probably a year or two away from a serious push for the division, but the Titans are also a candidate to surprise especially with a pretty favorable first half schedule.
