Friday's Diamond Notes
August 19, 2016
Hottest team: Cubs (15-2 last 17)
Chicago is hoping that this nine-game Western journey it has embarked upon won’t slow down its tremendous August, which has seen it sweep four different opponents. Only three of their 16 games this month have come outside Wrigley Field, but the Cubs did outscore the A’s by a combined margin of 14-3 in Oakland from Aug. 5-7 and own the third-highest road winning percentage in baseball behind Washington and St. Louis. The road trip, which features series against the Padres and Dodgers, opens in Denver against the Rockies, who won two of three the only time these teams got together back in mid-April. Colorado was the first team to steal a series from the Cubs at home, a feat that has only occurred on two other occasions this season. Rookie Tyler Anderson (4-4, 3.42 ERA) was still in the minors back then and will be getting his first look at Chicago’s mighty lineup, though he has seen a few of its key guys in the minors. Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks (11-7, 2.19) has the second-lowest ERA in baseball behind the injured Clayton Kershaw (1.79), who may not end up with enough innings to ultimately qualify for the award if he’s not back soon. Since June 19, Hendricks is 7-1 and has given up nine earned runs over 66.1 innings, striking out 63 and walking 16. Colorado handed him his first loss of the season. The Cubs have scored at least three runs in 20 of their last 21 games, averaging 5.4 within that span. They’ve won two of three at Coors Field in each of the past two seasons.
Coldest team: Astros (0-5 last five, 7-16 last 23)
The Astros are in danger of falling back down to .500 for the first time since June 21, when they kicked off summer by improving to 36-36, which was quite the accomplishment since they opened 17-28 through the season’s first 45 games. Their current ill-timed slump has them even with surging Kansas City and behind the fading Yankees in a ninth-place tie in the American League, 6.5 games back of a wild card spot. While there will be 40 games left after tonight’s showdown in Baltimore, Houston is running out of time to get back to the playoffs. That would be a huge disappointment since hopes were high after they unexpectedly reached last year’s postseason, taking down New York in the Wild Card before falling to the Royals in the ALDS. After closing out a four-game set at Camden Yards, Houston opens next week in Pittsburgh before returning home for winnable series against Tampa Bay and Oakland to close out August. The Astros have given up 38 runs over their last four losses as their pitching has completely broken down. The OVER has prevailed in eight of their last 11 games. Collin McHugh (7-10, 4.70) will look to snap a run of losses in four straight starts, while the Orioles hope to see Wade Miley (7-10, 5.23) notch a win for the first time since being acquired from Seattle. He’s 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA in a Baltimore uniform and will be facing the Astros for the third time in 2016.
Hottest pitcher: Rick Porcello (16-3, 3.30 ERA)
The Red Sox lost a 4-3 decision in the first of a four-game set in Detroit when Junichi Tazawa and Brad Ziegler were unsuccessful in protecting an eighth-inning lead, snapping a six-game winning streak. Despite the loss, Boston remains firmly entrenched in an AL wild card spot, even with Baltimore, three games up on Seattle and 3.5 up on the Tigers. Porcello is 10-1 since May 22 and has produced four consecutive quality starts, putting him squarely in the AL Cy Young mix. He’ll be seeing his former team who he pitched for from 2009-14 for the first time this season and only the second time in his career. As a result, there are few current Tigers who have much of a history against him – Miguel Cabrera has never faced him – although Ian Kinsler is 7-for-13. The newly acquired Erick Aybar (5-for-27) has opposed Porcello most, and no current player on the Detroit roster has a home run against him. He’ll be part of Friday’s top pitching matchup, squaring off against rookie Michael Fulmer (10-3, 2.25), who is third in all of baseball in ERA and comes off a career-best performance last Sunday, tossing a complete-game four-hit shutout at Texas. Books slightly favor Detroit (-110) at home and have set the total at 8.5.
Coldest pitcher: Johnny Cueto (13-3, 2.97 ERA)
A little over a month ago, Cueto was 13-1 and in the running for the NL’s Cy Young award, even starting the All-Star Game in San Diego. Former teammates Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez each homered off him in the second inning, resulting in a loss that didn’t count against his record, but began a run that hasn’t ended yet since victory has eluded him since July 6. Cueto was in position to have the winless streak snapped last Sunday, but watched Baltimore rally from a 7-1 deficit over the last three innings to win 8-7. The Giants are 2-4 in his last six starts. Including the All-Star debacle, Cueto has given up multiple home runs in five of his last nine outings after not having that happen over a span of 25 starts, which includes his work helping the Royals win last year’s World Series. Cueto will be facing the Mets for the first time since Game 2 of the Fall Classic, where he delivered a complete game two-hitter in a 9-1 win. New York has lost three of its last four and scratched lefty Steven Matz from Friday’s start due to shoulder discomfort. Rookie Seth Lugo (0-1, 2.65), who has worked 17 innings exclusively out of the bullpen since being called up for the first time on July 1, gets the call for the Mets, who are 1-8 when he’s taken the mound.
Biggest UNDER run: Rangers (5-0 last five, 14-3-1 last 18)
The bar has been set at 8.5 or higher in all but one of the 17 games encompassed in Texas’ under run, but those chasing the OVER based on all the firepower the Rangers have assembled after acquiring Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy at the trade deadline are likely broke by now. Although there was a prolonged slump in there against the Tigers where they failed to score a run in consecutive games, improved pitching has also contributed to this under run. The Rangers are 14-5 over their last 19 and have improved on the AL’s best record as result, but keeping their focus on this brief five-game road trip that starts tonight could be an issue. After a three-game set in Tampa Bay, Texas will play two in Cincinnati before returning to Arlington for an immense 10-game homestand against the Indians, Mariners and Astros. Cole Hamels (12-4, 2.88) aims to get his team off to a good start and has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last six outings. Although he’s yet to win a decision in August despite an ERA of 3.15, Hamels has been a rock for the Rangers, coming in 19-5 since being acquired just prior to the 2015 trade deadline. The UNDER has prevailed in five of Hamels’ six starts since the All-Star break, but he’s pitching at Tropicana Field for the first time since winning Game 1 of the 2008 World Series for Philadelphia en route to MVP honors. He’s only seen the Rays once this decade, shutting them out over seven innings in June 2012. Matt Andriese (6-4, 3.36) has limited experience against Texas hitters and has seen the OVER prevail in three of his last four starts. He hasn’t won a decision since June 15, making 13 straight appearances without a win. Books have set this total at 7.5.
Biggest OVER run: Phillies (10-0-2 last 12, 12-1-2 last 15)
The number has been right on over the last two Phillies games against the Dodgers, as Thursday’s 5-4 win produced nine runs for the second consecutive night to push for totals bettors. Oddsmakers have definitely adjusted since the figure would’ve likely been 8.5 if not for the fact that Philadelphia has still seen only one UNDER come in this entire month. Only one of the Phils' last 10 games at Citizens Bank Park has gone UNDER the posted total, a run that dates back to July 21. St. Louis comes into town on an OVER run of its own, as the posted total has been surpassed in nine of its last 11 games, including each of the last five. Since July 27, the OVER has gone 15-4-1 over the Cardinals' last 20 games. The Cards have averaged 7.5 runs on their current four-game winning streak that has them in control of the NL's second wild card. Adan Wainwright (9-7, 4.72) lasted a season-low two innings last Friday night at Wrigley Field, surrendering a season-high seven runs. The OVER has hit in each of his last five starts. Phillies lefty Adam Morgan (1-7, 6.62) was sent down to Triple-A for over a month and lasted just three innings in his return on Sunday. THE OVER has prevailed in each of the last nine games Morgan has appeared in. His lone win came on May 10 in Atlanta. Oddsmakers have set this total back up at 9.
Matchup to watch: Blue Jays at Indians
While every other division leader plays a sub-.500 team this weekend, Toronto and Cleveland square off at Progressive Field in what could wind up being a crucial weekend. The Indians hold a one-game lead over the Jays due to two fewer losses, but the winner of this series opener will reach the 70-win plateau first and whoever claims the three-game set would temporarily put themselves in position to potentially host the other in an NLDS if the Rangers wind up securing the AL’s top record. Cleveland has a much healthier division lead in the AL Central than Toronto enjoys over Baltimore and Boston, but this series should still feature a postseason feel since no other team scheduled to visit Cleveland between now and the end of the regular-season is currently a playoff team. These teams played a contentious four-game set up in Canada to open July that featured a 19-inning 2-1 Indians win that the Blue Jays recovered from by outscoring the Tribe 26-7 over the final two games, including a 17-1 rout in their last encounter. Lefty Francisco Liriano (6-12, 5.46) takes the ball first for Toronto and is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA since coming over from Pittsburgh. Favored Cleveland (-127) will ride Trevor Bauer (9-5, 3.97), who started that aforementioned 19-inning marathon on July 1, allowing two hits over five shutout innings. He’s won his last two decisions.
Betcha didn’t know: Atlanta's Julio Teheran (3-9, 2.81) hasn't allowed a run in four of his last seven starts and returns from the disabled list tonight after having his back tighten up in his last outing on July 30. The Colombian right-hander was just 1-2 in May despite a 1.38 ERA, went 2-2 in June even though his ERA that month was 1.91. He ended up a 4.08 in July and lost both of his decisions, but had a 15-inning scoreless streak snapped in his last start. The Braves have scored four or more runs in just six of his 21 starts. His three wins have all come away from Turner Field, where he's 0-5 despite a 3.08 ERA over 12 starts. Washington, who Teheran is 0-1 against this season over two April starts, will counter with Tanner Roark (13-6, 2.81), who has allowed just five earned runs over his last 27.1 innings and won 10 of his last 12 decisions.
Biggest public favorite: Yankees (-140) at Angels
Biggest public underdog: Reds (+142) vs. Dodgers
Biggest line move: Pirates (-155 to -170) vs. Marlins
