Saturday's Top 25 Trends
February 5, 2016
SATURDAY, FEB. 5, 2016
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
Kansas
Overall: 18-4 SU, 12-8 ATS
Big 12: 7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS
Totals: 8-12 O/U
TCU
Overall: 10-12 SU, 7-9 ATS
Big 12: 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS
Totals: 5-11 O/U
(7) Kansas at TCU (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Kansas hasn’t had much luck away from Lawrence recently by losing three straight road games. The Jayhawks are coming off a pair of home victories over Kentucky and Kansas State following five straight games in which they didn’t cover. In one of those ATS losses, KU held off TCU, 70-63 as 22 ½-point home favorites on January 16. The Horned Frogs have dropped six of their last seven games, but won their previous home contest in a comeback victory over Tennessee last Saturday, 75-63.
Kansas 75
TCU 62
Virginia
Overall: 18-4 SU, 8=12 ATS
ACC: 7-3 SU, 3-7 ATS
Totals: 10-10 O/U
Pittsburgh
Overall: 17-4 SU, 9-9 ATS
ACC: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS
Totals: 10-8 O/U
(9) Virginia at Pittsburgh (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Virginia has rebounded from a 1-3 start in ACC play by winning five straight games to improve to 6-3 in the conference. The Cavaliers haven’t fared well in the ATS department by going 1-7 ATS in its last eight in the favorite role, including a non-cover in Wednesday’s 61-47 victory at Boston College as 23 ½-point favorites. Pittsburgh has alternated wins and losses in each of its past seven games, coming off a 90-71 blowout of Virginia Tech this past Sunday. The Panthers have won four of five home ACC contests, while being listed as a favorite of 7 ½ points or more in all five home conference games.
Virginia 63
Pittsburgh 57
Boston College
Overall: 7-15 SU, 5-11-1 ATS
ACC: 0-9 SU, 2-6-1 ATS
Totals: 5-12 SU
Louisville
Overall: 18-4 SU, 9-9 ATS
ACC: 7-2 SU, 3-6 ATS
Totals: 8-9-1 O/U
Boston College at (19) Louisville (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Boston College is looking to avoid an 0-10 start in ACC play, but it won’t be easy as they’ll be listed as a double-digit underdog for the eighth straight game. The Eagles managed a cover in a 14-point home setback to Virginia on Wednesday, but BC hasn’t broken the 64-point mark in nine ACC losses. Louisville bounced back from an ugly home loss to Virginia last Saturday by handing North Carolina its first ACC loss on Monday, 71-65 to cash as 1 ½-point favorites. The Cardinals have struggled to a 3-6 ATS mark in ACC play, but owns a 5-3 ATS record as a double-digit home favorite this season.
Boston College 67
Louisville 81
Marquette
Overall: 15-8 SU, 8-14 ATS
Big East: 4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS
Totals: 13-9 O/U
Xavier
Overall: 20-2 SU, 14-8 ATS
Big East: 8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS
Totals: 13-9 O/U
Marquette at (6) Xavier (FS1, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Xavier continues to play well following a shocking home loss to Georgetown last month, as the Musketeers have won four straight games. XU squeezed past St. John’s on Wednesday as 21 ½-point home favorites, 90-83, the third non-cover in the last five games. Xavier took care of Marquette on January 16 in Milwaukee, 74-66 to barely cash as 6 ½-point favorites. Marquette’s three-game winning streak came to a halt in Wednesday’s 17-point setback at Seton Hall as seven-point ‘dogs. The Eagles have struggled against the number of late by compiling a 1-5 ATS mark the past six contests.
Marquette 70
Xavier 81
Michigan State
Overall: 19-4 SU, 13-9 ATS
Big Ten: 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS
Totals: 9-13 O/U
Michigan
Overall: 17-6 SU, 11-10 ATS
Big Ten: 7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS
Totals: 14-7 O/U
(10) Michigan State at Michigan (CBS, 2:00 p.m. ET)
The Wolverines and Spartans are separated by one game in the Big 10, as Michigan looks for its eighth conference victory. Michigan is coming off its second home loss of the season after getting blown out by Indiana on Tuesday, 80-67. The Wolverines have slumped to a 1-5 ATS record the last six games, while three of their four home conference wins have come against Rutgers, Penn State, and Minnesota. Michigan State looks to extend its winning streak to four games after coming off consecutive 30+ point routs. The Spartans swept the season series from the Wolverines last season, including a 13-point victory in Ann Arbor.
Michigan State 75
Michigan 72
Iowa State
Overall: 16-6 SU, 10-8 ATS
Big 12: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS
Totals: 7-11 O/U
Oklahoma State
Overall: 11-11 SU, 12-7 ATS
Big 12: 3-7 SU, 6-2-1 ATS
Totals: 9-11 O/U
(13) Iowa State at Oklahoma State (ESPN2, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Iowa State has gone through many ups and downs in Big 12 play, starting 1-3 prior to a four-game winning streak. The Cyclones attempt to snap a two-game losing streak after falling to Texas A&M and West Virginia, while riding a 5-0-1 run to the ‘under’ the past six games. Oklahoma State is coming off a rough overtime loss at Texas Tech, 63-61, but the Cowboys cashed as seven-point underdogs. OSU has quietly put together a solid 5-1-1 ATS record the last seven games, while trying to avenge a sweep by Iowa State last season, losing the two games by a combined seven points.
Iowa State 69
Oklahoma State 71
Villanova
Overall: 19-3 SU, 10-10 ATS
Big East: 9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS
Totals: 8-12-1 O/U
Providence
Overall: 18-5 SU, 13-9 ATS
Big East: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS
Totals: 13-9 O/U
(3) Villanova at (11) Providence (FS1, 2:30 p.m. ET)
The last time these teams met on January 24 in Philadelphia, Providence knocked off Villanova in overtime, 86-72 to cash outright as 12 ½-point underdogs. The Friars have lost two of three since upsetting the Wildcats, including a 77-70 setback at DePaul as eight-point road favorites on Tuesday. Villanova remains atop the Big East at 9-1, while covering for the first time in six games in Wednesday’s 83-58 blowout of Creighton as 11-point favorites. The Wildcats have won 11 straight conference road games dating back to last season, including a 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS mark this season.
Villanova 73
Providence 68
Florida
Overall: 15-7 SU, 12-7-1 ATS
SEC: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
Totals: 11-9 O/U
Kentucky
Overall: 16-6 SU, 9-13 ATS
SEC: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS
Totals: 12-10 O/U
Florida at (20) Kentucky (CBS, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Both these rivals own 6-3 records in SEC play as the Gators seek their sixth win in seven games. Florida held off Arkansas on Wednesday, but the Gators are 1-3 on the road inside the conference (3-1 ATS). Kentucky returns to Rupp Arena following tough losses at Kansas and Tennessee, while blowing a 21-point lead to the Volunteers in Tuesday’s 84-77 setback. The Wildcats haven’t lost to an SEC foe at home, posting a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record in Lexington with three wins by 19 points or more. Kentucky won all three meetings from Florida last season, including a 17-point triumph at Rupp Arena.
Florida 70
Kentucky 75
Purdue
Overall: 19-4 SU, 12-7 ATS
Big Ten: 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS
Totals: 9-10 O/U
Maryland
Overall: 20-3 SU, 11-12 ATS
Big Ten: 9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS
Totals: 9-13 O/U
(18) Purdue at (4) Maryland (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Two surefire tournament teams out of the Big 10 hook up in College Park as the Boilermakers have been off for a week since beating Nebraska at home, 89-74 as 12 ½-point favorites. Maryland is also coming off a victory over Nebraska, winning in Lincoln as 5 ½-point chalk on Wednesday, 70-65 to pick up its third consecutive win. The Terrapins haven’t lost a home game in 12 tries, while going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at the Xfinity Center against Big 10 foes. The Boilermakers have put together a 6-2 ATS record as a conference road underdog since last season, but Purdue fell at Iowa as 2 ½-point ‘dogs last month.
Purdue 72
Maryland 79
South Carolina
Overall: 19-3 SU, 14-5 ATS
SEC: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS
Totals: 9-10 O/U
Texas A&M
Overall: 18-4 SU, 8-7-2 ATS
SEC: 7-2 SU, 3-5-1 ATS
Totals: 6-11 O/U
(25) South Carolina at (8) Texas A&M (ESPNU, 4:00 p.m. ET)
South Carolina has struggled on the road inside conference play, losing three of the past four away from Columbia. The Gamecocks were held to 31% shooting from the floor in Tuesday’s 69-56 defeat at Georgia, as South Carolina is listed as an underdog for the first time in 10 conference games on Saturday. Texas A&M has lost two of three since a 10-game winning streak, including a 77-60 setback at Vanderbilt on Thursday. The Aggies are playing with one day of rest for the first time in SEC play, while riding a seven-game ‘under’ streak.
South Carolina 69
Texas A&M 70
Arizona
Overall: 18-5 SU, 13-10 ATS
Pac-12: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS
Totals: 15-8 O/U
Washington
Overall: 15-7 SU, 12-8 ATS
Pac-12: 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS
Totals: 14-6 O/U
(23) Arizona at Washington (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Not many people would have expected Washington (7-3) to own a better conference record than Arizona (6-4) ten games into Pac-12 play. The Wildcats go for a Washington sweep after knocking off Washington State on Wednesday, 79-64 to pick up their second straight double-digit victory. Arizona routed Washington in their last meeting in Tucson on January 14 by a 99-67 count, the fifth straight victory in the series. The Huskies have alternated wins and losses in the last five games, coming off Wednesday’s overtime triumph over Arizona State, 95-83. Washington continues to play a fast pace, cashing the ‘over’ in nine of 10 conference games.
Arizona 81
Washington 85
Dayton
Overall: 18-3 SU, 11-9 ATS
Atlantic 10: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS
Totals: 6-13 O/U
George Mason
Overall: 8-14 SU, 9-10 ATS
Atlantic 10: 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS
Totals: 10-9 O/U
(24) Dayton at George Mason
Dayton sits one game behind VCU for the top spot in the Atlantic 10 at 8-1, as the Flyers have won six straight games since getting tripped up at La Salle. The defense has been incredible of late for Dayton, allowing 50 points or less in each of the last three victories, while posting a 3-1 SU/ATS record as a road favorite in A-10 play. George Mason is coming off only its second conference win in nine tries, upsetting Richmond as 13-point underdogs, 78-74. The Patriots have lost all four A-10 home games, while covering only once as eight-point ‘dogs in a six-point defeat to George Washington last Sunday.
Dayton 71
George Mason 60
Oklahoma
Overall: 19-2 SU, 10-9 ATS
Big 12: 8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS
Totals: 12-7 O/U
Kansas State
Overall: 13-9 SU, 12-6 ATS
Big 12: 3-7 SU, 6-4 ATS
Totals: 10-9 O/U
(1) Oklahoma at Kansas State (ESPNU, 6:00 p.m. ET)
Oklahoma looks for its fifth straight victory after dominating TCU, 95-72 as 20-point favorites on Tuesday. The Sooners attempt to pick up the season sweep of Kansas State after knocking off the Wildcats in Norman, 86-76 as 13-point favorites in January. The Wildcats have won the last three home meetings with the Sooners, including a 59-56 triumph as 3 ½-point ‘dogs last season. K-State has won three of its last four home contests, but has lost each of its two Big 12 games as a home ‘dog against Iowa State and West Virginia.
Oklahoma 81
Kansas State 73
North Carolina
Overall: 19-3 SU, 9-12 ATS
ACC: 8-1 SU, 3-6 ATS
Totals: 14-8 O/U
Notre Dame
Overall: 15-7 SU, 8-11 ATS
ACC: 6-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS
Totals: 12-8 O/U
(2) North Carolina at Notre Dame (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
North Carolina is fresh off its first conference loss at Louisville on Monday, as the Tar Heels are seeking their 20th win of the season. UNC has failed to cover in four of the past five games, which includes an 0-2 ATS mark away from Chapel Hill in this span. Notre Dame has dropped two of three since a four-game winning streak, including road losses at Miami and Syracuse. The Fighting Irish has won four straight home games, but they came against the bottom half of the league (Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Wake Forest). Notre Dame won both meetings last season, including a 90-82 triumph in the ACC Championship.
North Carolina 75
Notre Dame 68
Indiana
Overall: 19-4 SU, 12-11 ATS
Big Ten: 9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS
Totals: 11-12 ATS
Penn State
Overall: 11-12 SU, 10-11 ATS
Big Ten: 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS
Totals: 11-11 ATS
(22) Indiana at Penn State (Big Ten, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Indiana has jumped out to a 9-1 record in the Big 10 with the lone loss coming in overtime at Wisconsin. The Hoosiers cruised past Michigan on Tuesday, 80-67 as two-point road underdogs, improving to 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS in five away conference games. Penn State has dropped four in a row since knocking off Northwestern last month, as the Nittany Lions have covered only once during this losing streak. The Nittany Lions have lost seven of the past eight matchups to the Hoosiers, including three straight home defeats to Indiana since 2012.
Indiana 75
Penn State 62
Baylor
Overall: 17-5 SU, 5-10 ATS
Big 12: 7-3 SU, 4-5-1 ATS
Totals: 9-7 O/U
West Virginia
Overall: 18-4 SU, 12-7 ATS
Big 12: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS
Totals: 8-10 ATS
(15) Baylor at (14) West Virginia (ESPN2, 8:00 p.m. ET)
West Virginia begins Saturday’s action tied atop the Big 12 with Oklahoma at 7-2 inside the conference. The Mountaineers bounced back from a blowout loss at Florida to beat Iowa State as five-point road underdogs on Tuesday, 81-76. WVU has won three of four home games against Big 12 foes, while putting up a 6-2 ATS record the last eight games overall. Baylor has failed to cash in its past five contests (0-4-1 ATS), while losing at home to Texas on Monday, 67-59. Since getting blown out at Kansas to tip off conference play, the Bears have won three straight road games.
Baylor 72
West Virginia 67
Wichita State
Overall: 17-5 SU, 13-7 ATS
MVC: 11-0 SU, 10-1 ATS
Totals: 11-9 O/U
Illinois State
Overall: 13-11 SU, 10-12 ATS
MVC: 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS
Totals: 11-11 O/U
(21) Wichita State at Illinois State (ESPN2, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Wichita State puts its 11-0 conference record on the line as the Shockers have covered eight consecutive games. WSU has won eight straight by double-digits, while all five of their road Missouri Valley wins have come by at least 13 points. Illinois State has suddenly won four of five since losing three straight in mid-January. The Redbirds don’t have many strong MVC wins, beating Drake and Loyola-Chicago twice each, while edging 3-21 Bradley by three points. Illinois State knocked out Wichita State in the MVC Tournament last season, 65-62 to snap a seven-game skid to the Shockers dating back to 2013.
Wichita State 73
Illinois State 65