Saturday's Tip Sheet
December 11, 2015
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**Florida at Michigan State**
-- Michigan State (10-0 straight up, 7-2 against the spread) is ranked No. 1 in the country thanks to five quality wins. Tom Izzo’s team has home wins over Louisville and Eastern Michigan, in addition to neutral-court victories over Boise State, Kansas and Providence. Trailing KU 61-50 with 9:42 left in Chicago, Denzel Valentine rallied Sparty to a 79-73 win as a 4.5-point underdog. Valentine scored 29 points, grabbed 12 rebounds and dished out 12 assists compared to only one turnover.
-- Valentine has established himself as a candidate for National Player of the Year honors here in the early going. The senior slasher is averaging team-highs in scoring (18.8 points per game), rebounding (8.9 RPG), assists (7.7 APG) and steals (0.9 SPG). He has produced a pair of triple-doubles vs. Boston College and vs. Kansas, becoming just the third player in MSU history to record multiple triple-doubles along with Magic Johnson and Draymond Green. Valentine has a 77/24 assists-to-turnovers ratio and is draining 85.7 percent of his free throws.
-- MSU has taken the cash in back-to-back wins over cupcake opponents. The Spartans smashed Maryland-Eastern Shore 78-35 as 34.5-point home favorites on Wednesday. Bryn Forbes was one of three Sparty players in double figures with a team-high 14 points. Valentine produced 11 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, two steals and one blocked shot. Eron Harris, the transfer from West Va., made all four of his attempts from 3-point range in a 12-point effort. However, Harris had four turnovers without an assist.
-- Michigan State ranks sixth in the nation in scoring defense (57.3 PPG) and is fifth in field-goal percentage defense (fifth, 35.3%). This could make it a long night for the Gators on the offensive end of the floor.
-- Forbes is the only other MSU player outside of Valentine that’ scoring in double figures. He is averaging 12.8 PPG thanks to 49.1 percent shooting from downtown. Harris has the ability to be an elite scorer. After all, he scored at a 17.2 PPG clip for the Mountaineers in 2013-2014 before sitting out last season. But Harris is only logging 16.0 minutes per game to date, which is obviously in part due to an effort by Izzo for him to become more committed on the defensive end of the court. Harris is averaging 7.4 PPG to date.
-- Florida (6-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) is the SEC’s highest-ranked team in the RPI (ninth), but we should note that the RPI’s rankings are a little strange at this early point of the season. The Gators have a pair of wins over RPI Top-100 foes in Richmond (#31) and State Joe’s (#72). They smashed the Spiders by a 76-56 count as 8.5-point home favorites on Dec. 1 in what was their best performance of the season. John Egbunu, the starting sophomore center who sat out last year after transferring from South Fla., led the way with 17 points and 14 rebounds in only 26 minutes of playing time. Devin Robinson added 12 points and 13 boards, while freshman KeVaughn Allen was also in double figures with 10 points. Dorian Finney-Smith, UF’s senior leader and starting small forward, tallied nine points, 13 rebounds, six assists, three blocks and committed only one turnover.
-- Florida’s losses have come to Purdue on a neutral court (85-70) and at Miami. Mike White’s squad dropped a 66-55 decision in Coral Gables this past Tuesday, failing to cover the spread as a six-point road underdog. The 121 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 141.5-point total. The Gators were completely inept from 3-point range, making only 1-of-12 attempts (8.3%). Egbunu scored a team-best 14 points, while Finney-Smith contributed 12 points and six rebounds. Robinson added 11 points and six boards. UF had an abysmal 7/10 assists-to-turnovers ratio.
-- Finney-Smith is averaging team-highs in scoring (14.0 points per game) and rebounding (8.6 RPG), and he’s tied for second in assists (23) and steals (eight). Egbunu is averaging 12.9 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. He has a team-best 10 blocked shots. For a big man with a huge frame, he has an excellent touch from the charity stripe, draining free throws at a 76.7 percent clip.
-- I believe the offensive woes for this team start with starting junior point guard Kasey Hill, who along with Chris Walker were five-star recruits ranked among the nation’s Top-10 players by every recruiting service in the 2013 class. Walker’s collegiate career has to be considered one of the biggest busts among five-star recruits in recent memory. Hill’s career to date has been an immense disappointment as well. He’s usually outstanding at penetrating off the dribble, but he too often can’t finish at the rim or make the right decisions. In eight games this year, his 25/14 assists-to-turnovers ratio isn’t impressive. Hill’s field-goal percentage last year (37.9%) was terrible and is only worse so far this season (34.8%). He was an abysmal 52.6 percent from the free-throw line last season. In 2015-2016, Hill’s making only 57.1 percent from the line.
-- UF is 0-2 both SU and ATS as a ‘dog this season.
-- Florida remains without senior forward Alex Murphy, who is dealing with a foot injury sustained in early November. Murphy is expected to miss another week or two. The Duke transfer averaged 5.1 PPG last year, his first as a Gator.
-- The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight UF games. The Gators have seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 overall and 2-0 in their true road assignments. They rank No. 15 in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 59.6 points per game.
-- UF’s penchant for ‘unders’ to date also centers around its offensive struggles. Like last year, the Gators just don’t have an abundance of shooters, certainly not like the ones that characterized Billy Donovan’s program for nearly two decades. They are No. 312 in American from long distance, shooting an atrocious 28.9 percent from beyond the arc. Also, UF is making just 42.2 percent of its attempts from the field (No. 240 in the country).
-- The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for the Spartans, 3-2 in their home games.
-- This is a rematch of the 2000 national-title game won by Michigan State, 89-76, as a four-point favorite. Since then, these schools have met four times. The Spartans clobbered UF 99-83 at Breslin Center on Dec. 6 of 2000 as 8.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Florida won a 74-70 decision over MSU in 2001, but Izzo’s team easily covered the number as a 14-point underdog. In the Round of 32 at the 2003 NCAA Tournament, UF was the No. 2 seed and playing two hours from home in Tampa. The Spartans were in rebuilding year, barely making the Big Dance as a No. 10 seed. Nevertheless, Michigan State dominated David Lee, Matt Bonner and Co. in a 68-46 triumph as a five-point ‘dog. These schools met again in 2009 in Atlantic City with UF capturing a 77-74 win as a 3.5-point underdog. Chandler Parsons scored a team-high 14 points for the Gators.
-- Tip-off is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**UCLA at Gonzaga**
-- Gonzaga (6-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) is mired in a 0-4-1 ATS slump after failing to cover again in Tuesday’s 61-58 win over Montana as a 17.5-point home favorite. Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis scored 16 points apeice and had nine and 10 rebounds, respectively. Josh Perkins added 13 points, six boards, three assists and two steals.
-- Mark Few’s team has a pair of losses by only six combined points. Gonzaga lost 62-61 to Texas A&M in the Bahamas and also dropped a 68-63 decision to Arizona at home. The Bulldogs blew a 10-point lead at halftime against the Wildcats.
-- Gonzaga is led by Wiltjer, who is a National Player of the Year candidate. The Kentucky transfer, who is playing his second season for Few, helped the Bulldogs to their second Elite Eight in school history last year. Wiltjer, who had 33 points and nine rebounds in the losing effort vs. Arizona, is averaging 20.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Sabonis is scoring at a 14.4 PPG clip and averages a team-high 10.4 rebounds per conteState
-- Since dropping back-to-back games vs. Kansas (93-72) and vs. Wake Forest (80-77) at the Maui Classic, UCLA (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) has won three in a row while going 2-1 ATS. Steve Alford’s team won an 87-77 decision over previously-undefeated and top-ranked Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog. The victory over UK avenged an embarrassing loss to the Wildcats last year and was the school’s first win over a No. 1-ranked opponent since 2003. All five starters scored in double figures led by sophomore center Thomas Welsh, the 7-footer who finished with 21 points, 11 rebounds and a pair of blocked shots. Bryce Alford added 15 points, five rebounds and four assists.
-- UCLA lost its season opener at home to Monmouth (84-81), but the stain of that defeat has subsided since the Hawks have also upset USC and Notre Dame on neutral courts and only lost by three to Dayton on a neutral floor.
-- UCLA is off an 83-76 non-covering home win over Long Beach State as an 11-point ‘chalk.’ Alford was outstanding with 24 points and six assists without a turnover. Tony Parker added 16 points and 10 rebounds, while Welsh also had a double-double with 15 points and 10 boards. Isaac Hamilton contributed 21 points, four boards, four assists and four steals.
-- Alford paces the Bruins in scoring (16.2 PPG) and assists (5.4 APG). Welsh is averaging 13.3 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. He has a team-best 12 blocked shots and is making 62.8 percent of his shots from the field. Parker is averaging a double-double (14.0 PPG, 10.9 RPG).
-- Gonzaga is ranked No. 22 in the nation in scoring defense (61.2 PPG). The Bulldogs are third in the country at defending the 3-point line, forcing foes to make only 23.8 percent of their attempts from long distance.
-- These schools have met in the NCAA Tournament twice in the last decade. UCLA beat Gonzaga 73-71 to end Adam Morrison’s collegiate career in the 2006 Sweet 16. Then last season in the Sweet 16, Gonzaga won a 74-62 decision as an 8.5-point favorite. Since 1999, these teams have collided four times with the Bulldogs going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS.
-- The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for the Bruins, 4-2 in their home outings.
-- The ‘under’ has cashed in three consecutive contests for Gonzaga to improve to 6-1 overall. The ‘under’ is 3-0 for the Bulldogs in their home games.
-- ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Michigan senior point guard Spike Albrecht announced Friday that he was leaving the team to concentrate on his recovery from bilateral hip surgery. Stats and numbers don’t do justice to the type of collegiate career the two-time team captain enjoyed for the maize and blue. As a true freshman, he played the game of his life in the national-title game against Louisville. Albrecht exploded for 17 first-half points, drilling four in a row from 3-point range (and then some on a few of the long-range jumpers). His previous season-high had been seven points. Albrecht was also an integral part of an Elite Eight run in 2014 as a sophomore. Best wishes to him in his recovery.
-- Cincinnati (8-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) and Xavier (9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) will renew their bitter rivalry once against at 5:30 p.m. Eastern on Saturday. The Bearcats have lost three in a row ATS and took their first outright defeat at home vs. Butler (78-76) on Dec. 2. The Musketeers have quality wins over Dayton, USC, Alabama, Michigan and Missouri. They won by 16 in Ann Arbor and trashed the Flyers by a 90-61 score.
-- South Carolina (8-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) is the only unbeaten SEC team remaining. The Gamecocks host Drexel on Tuesday before facing arch-rival Clemson on the road at Littlejohn Coliseum next Friday.
-- Kentucky is mired in a 0-6 ATS slump after failing to cover in Wednesday’s 88-67 win over Eastern Ky. As a 24.5-point home favorite. Alex Poythress recorded his third double-double of the season by going for 21 points and 13 rebounds The ‘Cats return to the court Saturday to take on Arizona State at Rupp Arena.
-- Michigan State is second in the nation in rebounding margin (17.6), while Xavier ranks fifth (14.0).
-- Nation’s best ATS teams to date: Texas-Arlington (8-1), UCF (6-0), IUPU-Ft. Wayne (7-1), Kansas State (5-0) and So. Miss (5-0).
-- UT-Arlington has outright wins at Ohio State and at Memphis as a double-digit underdog. The Mavericks also won as 1.5-point ‘dogs at UTEP. They lost 80-73 at Texas in overtime but still managed to cover the spread as 9.5-point puppies.
-- Alabama suffered a huge loss when starting freshman guard Dazon Ingram broke his foot earlier this week. Ingram, who was averaging 7.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.1 steals per game, will miss the rest of the season.
