NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 6
Thursday’s game
Texas State (-13.5) @ Troy
Texas State (2-2)
Bobcats lost last two games, by total of four points.
Texas State led 22-0 in 1st quarter LW, lost 40-39 to Sam Houston.
Texas State has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Bobcats have 68 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB McCloud started 13 games at James Madison LY; he is at his 4th in six years- he played in 20 games at South Florida, 3 at Arizona.
Last three year, Texas State is 1-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Last two years, Bobcats were 6-10 ATS in Sun Belt games.
Texas State’s one I-A win was 49-10 over UTSA.
Bobcats are 12-9 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
Texas State has thrown ball for 301 yards/game in its I-A tilts.
Troy (1-4)
Trojans are 0-4 vs I-A teams, with home losses by 2-4 points.
Troy has 2 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
Trojans have 42 starts back on offensive line.
Frosh QB Kilcrease played LW, threw only 10 passes in 13-9 loss.
Trojans ran ball for 241 yards, but didn’t score a TD.
Troy was 23-5 SU last two years; they’ve got new coach this year.
Since 2015, Troy is 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Last two years, Trojans were 13-3 ATS in Sun Belt games.
Troy was held under 275 TY in its last three I-A games.
Trojans are 4-7 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
Troy State won last nine series games (3-3 ATS last six).
Bobcats are 0-5 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Troy.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Sam Houston State (-10.5) @ UTEP
Sam Houston State (4-1)
Bearkats won last three games, scoring 31-31-40 points.
Bearkats ran ball for 278.3 yards/game in those wins.
Sam Houston has 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
Bearkats have 70 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Watson played JC ball in Iowa last year.
Last four years, Sam Houston is 5-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Bearkats are 13-15 ATS in last 28 conference games.
Bearkats were down 22-0 LW, rallied to beat Texas State, 40-39.
Sam Houston is 4-1 ATS in last five games coming off a win.
Under is 3-2 in their games this season.
Texas-El Paso (0-4)
Miners lost their I-A games by 33-18-10 points, scoring 11.3 ppg.
UTEP has been outrushed 634-195 in its I-A games.
UTEP has 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Miners have 26 starts back on offensive line, mostly at I-AA level.
Soph QB Locklear came with the new coach from I-AA Austin Peay.
UTEP is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games as a home underdog.
UTEP is 18-11 ATS in last six 29 conference games.
Miners are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
UTEP lost 27-24 to I-AA Southern Utah.
Under is 3-0 in their games this season.
UTEP (+3.5) upset Sam Houston 37-34 LY, running for 222 yards.
Miners outgained Sam Houston, 428-354.
Friday’s games
Jacksonville State (-15.5) @ Kennesaw State
Jacksonville State (1-3)
Gamecocks gave up 55-49-37 points in their three losses.
Jax State ran for 273 yards LW, pounded Southern Miss, 44-7.
Jax State has 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
Gamecocks have 67 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB Huff played last two years at I-AA Furman.
Under Rodriguez, Gamecocks are 2-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Rodriguez, Gamecocks are 10-3 ATS in conference games.
Jax State was +5 in turnovers LW (minus-2 in first three games).
Under Rodriguez, Gamecocks are 9-7 ATS coming off a win.
Over is 3-1 in their games this season.
Kennesaw State (0-4)
Kennesaw lost its first three I-A games by 12-24-21 points.
Owls also lost 27-13 to UT-Martin, a I-AA team.
Kennesaw has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Owls have 33 starts back on offensive line, added six transfers.
Soph QB Bryson is 51-97/540 passing, with one TD, 3 INTs.
This is their first season as a I-A team.
Kennesaw is 1-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Owls were outgained by 213 yards/game in their I-A tilts.
Kennesaw is 2-8 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.
Under is 3-0 in their I-A games this season.
Home team won both meetings, in 2021-22.
Jax State lost 31-6 here three years ago.
Houston @ TCU (-16.5)
Houston (1-4, 0-2)
Houston was blanked 34-0/20-0 in its first two Big X games.
Last 2 games, Cougars were minus-6 in turnovers, passed for 92-72 yards.
Houston has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Cougars have 118 returning starts on OL, only 30 of them at Houston.
Senior QB Smith has 20 career starts.
Houston is 10-7-1 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog.
Houston is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 17 conference games.
In his career, Fritz is 23-22-1 ATS as an underdog
Cougars are 5-8-2 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Under is 5-0 in their games this season.
TCU (3-2, 1-1)
TCU gave up 35-66 points in their two losses.
TCU gave up 289-238 rushing yards in those games.
TCU has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Hoover started six games last year.
Under Dykes, TCU is 7-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Dykes, TCU is 10-8-1 ATS coming off a win.
In his career, Dykes is 28-22 ATS as home favorite.
Horned Frogs gained 457-460-480-507 TY in their I-A games.
Over is 4-0 in their I-A games this season.
TCU won/covered last six series games.
Only one of those six games has been since 2007.
Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Michigan State @ Oregon (-24)
Michigan State (3-2, 1-1)
Spartans lost last two games, scoring 19-7 points.
New coach Smith comes from Oregon State, his alma mater.
MSU has 5 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Spartans have 31 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Chiles was a sub at Oregon State LY, playing every third series.
MSU is 8-5-2 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog.
Last 2+ years, Spartans are 7-11-2 ATS in league games.
Under is 3-1 in their I-A games.
Michigan State is 5-7-2 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Spartans are already minus-7 in turnovers.
Oregon (4-0, 1-0)
Oregon scored 37-49-34 points in its I-A wins.
Last two games, Ducks gained 546-431 TY.
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Ducks have 144 returning starts on the offensive line.
Ducks poached senior QB Gabriel (49 starts at UCF/Oklahoma).
Under Lanning, Oregon is 17-7 ATS as a favorite.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 9-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Ducks are 14-4 ATS in last 18 conference games.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 16-6 ATS coming off a win.
Over is 2-1 in their I-A games.
Teams haven’t met since a bowl game six years ago.
While coaching the Beavers, Smith was 2-4 SU/3-3 ATS vs Oregon.
Syracuse @ UNLV (-7)
Syracuse (3-1)
Syracuse scored 38-31-24 points in its I-A games (2-1)
Orange threw for 354-381-339 yards in those games.
Syracuse has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Orangemen have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB McCord started 12 games at Ohio State last year.
First road game for Syracuse, which also plays in a dome at home.
Last two years, Syracuse was 1-6 ATS as a road underdog.
In its I-A games, Syracuse gave up 22-28-26 points.
Syracuse is 10-4-1 ATS in last 15 non-conference games.
Orange is 12-7-1 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
ACC non-conference road underdogs are 4-2 ATS.
UNLV (4-0)
Rebels are 4-0 for first time in 40+ years.
UNLV gave up 7-20-14 points in its I-A games.
UNLV has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 79 starts returning on offensive line.
Senior QB Williams started 40 games at I-AA Campbell.
Under Odom, UNLV is 13-3 against the spread.
In his career, Odom is 18-11 ATS as a home favorite.
UNLV players have chip on shoulder after their QB quit over NIL stuff.
Since 2018, UNLV is 18-5 ATS in non-league games.
Mountain West non-conference home favorites are 4-1 ATS.
These teams haven’t met in this century.
