NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 3
Saturday’s best 13 games
Alabama (-16) @ Wisconsin
Alabama (2-0)
Alabama won its first two games, 63-0/42-16.
New coach DeBoer was 37-9 SU at Fresno State/Washington.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Milroe has started 14 games.
Last three years, Alabama is 5-9 ATS as a road favorite.
Last 5+ years, Alabama is 15-9 ATS in non-league games.
LW, Alabama gave up 206 RY, was minus-3 in turnovers, still won 42-16.
Last 4+ years, Alabama is 27-20-1 ATS coming off a win.
Wisconsin (2-0)
Wisconsin beat Western Michigan 28-14, beat a I-AA team 27-13.
Last two years, Wisconsin was 7-6/7-6, their worst years since 2008.
Badgers have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Badgers have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Van Dyke started 25 games at Miami.
Since 2014, Badgers are 2-0 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2017, Badgers are 2-4 ATS as an underdog anywhere.
In his career, Fickell is 15-8 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2014, Badgers are 24-16 ATS in non-conference games.
These teams haven’t met since a bowl game in 2015.
Alabama (-12.5) won that game, 35-17.
LSU (-7) @ South Carolina
LSU (1-1)
LSU (-4) lost 27-20 to USC, then beat a I-AA team, 44-21
In two years under Kelly, LSU is 21-8 SU/15-12-1 ATS
Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Tigers have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Nussmeier was MVP of LSU’s 35-31 bowl win LY.
Under Kelly, Tigers are 2-4 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Kelly is 31-28-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Kelly, LSU is 8-8-1 ATS in SEC games.
Since 2017, LSU is 36-22-2 ATS in SEC games.
South Carolina (2-0)
Gamecocks beat Old Dominion 23-19, Kentucky 31-6 so far.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Gamecocks have 118 returning starts on the offensive line.
Freshman QB Sellers threw four passes in three games LY.
Since 2018, Gamecocks are 7-12 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Beamer is 4-4 ATS as a home dog.
Last 4+ years, Carolina is 16-19 ATS in SEC games.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 10-10 ATS coming off a win.
Teams haven’t met since 2020.
LSU won last seven series games (5-2 ATS)
This is Bayou Bengals’ first visit to Columbia since 2008.
Last three meetings went over the total.
Memphis @ Florida State (-6.5)
Memphis (2-0)
Tigers beat Troy 38-17 LW; they beat a I-AA team 40-0.
Memphis has 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Tigers have 124 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Hanigan has 37 career starts.
Since 2016, Tigers are 3-9-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Silverfield, Tigers are 2-5 ATS as a road dog.
Under Silverfield, Memphis is 9-7-2 ATS in non-league games.
Under Silverfield, Memphis is 10-17-1 ATS coming off a win.
Florida State (0-2)
Florida State lost first two games, ACC games, to Georgia Tech/BC.
FSU was 23-4 SU last two years (19-27 from 2018-21)
FSU has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Seminoles have 190 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Uiagalelei has 41 career starts, 28 of them at Clemson.
Seminoles gave up 453 rushing yards in first two games.
Under Norvell, FSU is 8-12 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Norvell is 22-23 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Norvell, FSU is 7-7-1 ATS in non-conference games.
Since 2020, Seminoles are 5-11 ATS coming off a loss.
These teams haven’t met since 1990.
ACC teams are 11-2 ATS in last 13 games against AAC foes.
Boston College @ Missouri (-16)
Boston College (2-0)
BC won 28-13 at Florida State, beat a I-AA stiff 56-0.
New coach O’Brien was 54-52 as NFL HC, was 15-9 in two years at Penn State.
Eagles have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Eagles have 115 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Castellanos started 12 games LY.
Last 4+ years, Boston College is 9-10 ATS as an underdog.
In his college career, O’Brien is 6-3 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2017, Eagles are 10-18 ATS in non-conference games.
Boston College is 3-7 ATS last 10 games as a double digit road dog.
Missouri (2-0)
Mizzou beat Buffalo/I-AA stiff by a combined 89-0.
Tigers ran for 255 yards vs MAC’s Buffalo last week.
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tigers have 107 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Cook has started 26 games.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 4-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 5-9-1 ATS in non-league games.
Mizzou is 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 non-SEC home games.
Tigers start SEC play next week, when they host Vanderbilt.
BC (+1.5) beat Mizzou 41-34 (OT) at home in 2021, running for 275 yards
Since start of LY, ACC teams are 9-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Oregon (-16.5) @ Oregon State
Oregon (2-0)
Last 3+ years, Oregon is 34-9 SU, 23-17-2 ATS.
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Ducks have 144 returning starts on the offensive line.
Ducks poached senior QB Gabriel (49 starts at UCF/Oklahoma).
Under Lanning, Oregon is 16-6 ATS as a favorite.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
LW, Boise State ran for 221 yards in Ducks’ 37-34 win.
Since 2015, Ducks are 18-26 ATS in non-league games.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 15-6 ATS coming off a win.
Oregon State (2-0)
OSU outgained San Diego State 420-179 in LW’s 21-0 win.
Last two years, Beavers were 18-8 SU, but they’ve been gutted.
Oregon State has 4 starters back on offense, 1 on defense.
Beavers have 93 returning starts on OL, from various places.
Junior QB McCoy started 23 games at I-AA Idaho.
Last four years, Oregon State is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Beavers are 13-6 ATS in last 19 non-league games.
Beavers are 20-7 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
Oregon State has new coach, new QB, no league to play in; the former coach is a Beaver alum, and he bolted. I’m guessing they have a chip on their shoulders.
Home team won last five meetings,
Ducks lost last two visits to Corvallis, 38-34/41-38.
Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.
Tulane @ Oklahoma (-13)
Tulane (1-1)
Green Wave lost 34-27 at home to K-State LW.
K-State ran ball for 215 yards; Tulane outgained them, 491-396.
Last 2+ years, Tulane is 24-6 SU/15-11 ATS.
Green Wave has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Green Wave has 143 returning starts on offensive line.
Redshirt frosh QB Mensah threw for 342 yards LW.
Last 4+ years, Tulane is 10-6-1 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2016, Green Wave is 23-14 ATS in non-league games.
New coach Sumrall is 7-1 ATS as an underdog.
Tulane is 17-7 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
Oklahoma (2-0)
Oklahoma won first two games, 51-3/16-12.
Since 2015, Sooners are 96-24 SU (18-10 under Venables)
Oklahoma has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Gabriel bolted to Oregon; soph QB is 36-57/310 passing.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 9-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, Sooners are 35-22 ATS as a home favorite.
LW, Oklahoma was outgained 318-249 in 16-12 win over Houston.
Sooners are 11-5 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
Oklahoma opens SEC play next week, when they host Tennessee.
Three years ago, Oklahoma (-32) edged Tulane 40-35.
Notre Dame (-9.5) @ Purdue
Notre Dame (1-1)
Notre Dame won 23-13 at Texas &M, then lost 16-14 to NIU.
Northern Illinois outgained the Irish, 388-286
Irish have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Notre Dame has 34 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Leonard started 21 games at Duke.
Since 2017, Notre Dame is 15-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Freeman, Notre Dame is 3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Freeman, Notre Dame is 6-3 ATS in all road games.
Since 2016, Notre Dame is 13-8 ATS coming off a loss
Purdue (1-0)
Purdue’s only game was 49-0 win over a I-AA team.
Purdue was 4-8 last year, its 4th losing season in six years.
Boilermakers have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Purdue has 165 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Card has 16 career starts.
Last two years, Purdue is 1-10 ATS at home.
Last ten years, Purdue is 10-21 ATS as a home underdog.
Last two years, Boilers are 2-5 ATS in non-conference games.
Purdue is 7-14 ATS, in last 21 games coming off a win.
Notre Dame is 8-0 SU/4-4 ATS in last eight meetings.
Notre Dame is 4-5 ATS in last nine visits to West Lafayette.
Under is 7-2-1 in last ten series games.
Washington State vs Washington (-4.5) (@ Seattle, on Seahawks’ field)
Washington State (2-0)
Wazzu ran for 301 yards LW, hammered Texas Tech, 37-16.
Coogs have 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Wazzu has 63 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Mateer is 20-36/467 passing in two games.
Wazzu is 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road dog.
In his career, Dickert is 9-5-1 ATS as an underdog.
Coogs are 12-6-1 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
Coogs are 17-16 SU/19-12-1 ATS under coach Dickert.
Washington (2-0)
Washington went 25-3 last two years, now is in a rebuild.
New coach Fisch was at Arizona; new DC is Steve Belichick.
Huskies have 2 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Huskies have 36 returning starts on offensive line, none of them here.
Senior QB Rogers started 40 games at Mississippi State.
Washington is 12-20-1 ATS last 33 games as a favorite.
Last two years, Huskies are 7-1-1 ATS in non-conference games.
In his career, Fisch is 5-6 ATS as a favorite.
Washington opens Big 18 play next week, against Northwestern.
Washington is 12-2 SU/10-4 ATS in last 14 series games.
Under is 6-4 in last ten meetings.
West Virginia (-2) @ Pittsburgh
West Virginia (1-1)
WVU lost 34-12 at home to Penn State, beat I-AA team 49-14 LW.
Mountaineers have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Mountaineers have 113 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Greene has 14 career starts.
Since 2020, WVU is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Brown is 10-10 ATS as a road favorite.
Last two years, WVU was 6-1 ATS in non-conference games.
Mountaineers are 11-16 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
Pittsburgh (2-0)
Pitt was 3-9 last year, their worst season since 2017.
Panthers have 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Panthers have 58 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Holstein was 20-35/302 passing LW, with three TD’s.
Pitt gained 570/498 TY in 55-24/28-27 wins so far.
Panthers beat Cincinnati 28-27 LW, after trailing 27-6.
Pitt is 8-5 ATS last 13 games as a home underdog.
Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 25-23 ATS as an underdog.
Last 10 years, Panthers are 16-26-2 ATS in non-ACC games.
West Virginia won four of last five series games.
WVU is 5-3 ATS in last eight visits to Pittsburgh.
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Big X teams are 12-5-1 ATS in last 18 games vs ACC opponents.
Ole Miss (-22.5) @ Wake Forest
Ole Miss (2-0)
Ole Miss beat MTSU 52-3 LW, after beating a stiff 76-0.
Rebels have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Rebels have 222 returning starts on offensive line (VERY experienced).
Junior QB Dart has started 25 games.
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 7-3-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Last four years, Ole Miss is 11-5 ATS in non-conference games.
Last three years, Rebels are 16-11-2 ATS coming off a win.
Rebels threw ball for 926 yards in their first two games.
Wake Forest (1-1)
Wake threw for 403 yards LW, but lost 31-30 to Virginia.
Deacons led 30-17 after three quarters last week.
Deacons have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Wake Forest has 69 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Bachmeier had 37 starts at Boise State/Louisiana Tech.
Last five years, Wake is 4-2 ATS as home underdog.
Deacons are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Deacons are 12-9 ATS in last 21 non-conference games.
Virginia threw for 357 yards in last week’s game.
These teams haven’t met since 2008.
Since start of LY, ACC teams are 9-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
Indiana (-3) @ UCLA
Indiana (2-0)
Hoosiers beat FIU 31-7, beat a I-AA stiff 77-3 last week.
Curt Cignetti was 52-10 in five years at James Madison.
Hoosiers have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
Hoosiers have 119 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Rourke started 33 games at Ohio U.
Last three years, Indiana is 10-17 ATS in conference games.
Since 2018, Hoosiers are 2-6 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Cignetti is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Indiana is 5-11 ATS in its last sixteen road games.
UCLA (1-0)
Last three years, UCLA was 25-13, but Chip Kelly bolted to be OC at Ohio State.
New coach Foster is 44, has no head coaching experience.
Eric Biemiemy is the new OC (14 years as an NFL assistant)
UCLA has 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Bruins have 101 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Garbers started 6 games last year.
Bruins (-13.5) won opener 16-13 at Hawai’i, two weeks ago.
Last three years, UCLA is 4-1 ATS as a home dog.
Last two years, UCLA is 6-10 ATS coming off a win.
Last four years, Bruins are 10-6 ATS as an underdog.
For whatever reasons, these teams are in the same league now.
These teams have never met.
Colorado @ Colorado State
Colorado (1-1)
Colorado lost 28-10 LW, after edging a I-AA team 31-26.
From 2021-23, Colorado was 9-27 SU/15-21 ATS
Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 100 returning starts on offensive line, and a new OL coach.
QB Sanders started 11 games LY, after playing multiple years at I-AA Jackson State.
Last ten years, Colorado is 2-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Buffs are 3-7 ATS in last 10 non-conference games.
Last year, Colorado was 5-2 ATS coming off a loss.
In two games, Buffs ran ball 45 times for only 75 yards.
Colorado State (1-1)
CSU beat a I-AA team 38-17, after losing 52-0 at Texas.
Rams have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
CSU has 94 starts returning on the offensive line.
Rams’ soph QB has 11 starts; he threw 22 TD’s, 16 INT’s last year.
Rams have had six consecutive losing seasons.
CSU is 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
In his career, Norvell is 26-18 ATS as an underdog.
CSU was outgained 545-192 in the loss at Texas.
Colorado is 6-0 SU/4-1-1 ATS in last six meetings.
This is Buffs’ first visit to Fort Collins since 1996.
Under is 10-3 in last 13 series games (over 2-0 last two)
Maryland (-2.5) @ Virginia
Maryland (1-1)
Terps gave up 363 PY in last week’s 27-24 loss to Michigan State
Maryland is already +5 in turnovers this year.
Maryland has 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Terps have 21 returning starts on OL.
Soph QB Morris started six games at NC State.
Since 2020, Maryland is 4-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2020, Maryland is 6-10 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Locksley, Terps are 12-5 ATS in non-league games.
Terps were outgained 493-339 by Michigan State LW.
Virginia (2-0)
Virginia outscored Wake 14-0 in 4th quarter of LW’s 31-30 win.
Deacons threw for 403 yards, Virginia threw for 357.
Cavaliers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Cavaliers have 81 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB started six games last year.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 12-5 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2014, Virginia is 17-9 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Elliott, Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in non-league games.
Virginia is 12-5 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Maryland won four of last five meetings.
Terps won 27-20/42-23 in last two visits to Charlottesville.
Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
Big 18 teams are 14-10 ATS in last 24 games vs ACC opponents.
