NBA Playoffs Threat Rankings: Conference finals danger zone
As we did with the first and second rounds, it's time to update our threat rankings. Here we rank the most dangerous, not the necessarily the best, remaining NBA playoff teams. It's not about most likely to win the title or the best roster. It factors who they have in front of them, how they match up and what the ceiling is for execution and overall play.
1. Golden State Warriors: Golden State had a higher point differential vs. Memphis than it did vs. the Pelicans, despite losing two games to the Grizzlies. The Warriors are growing and adapting. They got hit in the mouth by Memphis, put on the deck. Some teams go down and they stay down. The Warriors came back up with a 2x4 and knocked the Grizzlies into the stratosphere.
There's no team with this combination of talent, defensive strength and discipline, speed and -- of course -- shooting ability. They have no discernible weakness, and when you look at the rest of the field, the question seems to not be whether the Warriors will win the title but how many games it will take them to do it.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers: I picked the Hawks to upset the Cavaliers -- yes, it's an upset despite Atlanta being the higher seed -- yet I still consider Cleveland more dangerous. Because if the Cavs do manage to defeat Atlanta, it will be because LeBron James burns himself out in a supernova of pure talent and drags this critically damaged, jet-fuel-leaking, one-armed super-robot of a team to the finish line. His presence changes the structure of the game like introducing a new weapon into a video game -- the ultimate power-up.
The Cavs seemingly also would have the only real counter to Golden State with their combination of interior size (Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov) and speed with Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert. Throw in J.R. Smith's Roman candle abilities and you have a team with a low floor and an exceptionally high ceiling.
They have to get healthy, though, and even then it might not be enough to beat Golden State in the NBA Finals.
3. Houston Rockets: The wild card. The Rockets should be dead meat vs. the Warriors, but they should have been dead meat vs. the Clippers after going down 3-1. They should have been dead meat for the division when Dwight Howard went down. They should have been dead meat for the No. 2 seed when they lost Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas. The Rockets have proven themselves to be the most resilient team in these playoffs.
Their threat comes not necessarily from talent; you know what James Harden brings (free throws) and what Dwight Howard brings (missed free throws). You can't really control what Josh Smith brings (apparently that's step-back 3-pointers now) or Corey Brewer (aka Leaky McCherrypicks). Instead, their danger comes from unpredictability. The Rockets are playing with house money and can throw any lineup out at any point. They have versatility and a surprising well of resilience. Can that translate to, you know, actually beating a team better than they are?
4. Atlanta Hawks: I very much like their personnel and style of play and have trumpeted their success all season. But in the playoffs the Hawks have morphed into a combination of the very things they avoided all year. Their execution has been poor, they're banged up, they can't make 3-pointers and Jeff Teague is a mess. These are the Bizarro Hawks.
I picked them over Cleveland because injuries and depth take a toll over a seven-game series but I also wouldn't be surprised if Atlanta were swept in this round or the next. It simply hasn't been able to find that top gear that it had in the regular season. This isn't about lack of star power, but not having a go-to player is hurting the Hawks since their expert execution isn't executing expertly.
Those are the teams, but this is a player's league. Who are the most dangerous players left? The usual suspects are where you expect, but there are surprises. Again, this isn't about the best overall players, it's about who can make a run and impact playoff games above the others.
1. Warriors PG Stephen Curry: You have to give this nod to the MVP. While LeBron James remains the best overall player on the planet, his ability to hit that top gear game after game has been absent. You can consider him 1B to Curry's 1A, based on defense, rebounding, playmaking, leadership and pure bull-in-a-china-shop-ness, but Curry retains this top spot for his consistency.
Curry was stymied by an effective strategy in two games vs. the Grizzlies: Hedge him to the ends of the earth with the big in the pick-and-roll, and keep one defender attached to his hip at all times. Golden State's response in Games 4, 5 and 6 wasn't so much a switch to other skills for Curry as it was simply an increased focus. More misses for Memphis meant more running opportunities for Curry, and more 3s in the air. When you have a shooter like Curry -- and by that I mean only Curry because nobody shoots like him -- you don't need to put him in different positions when struggling, just get him more opporunities. That applies more pressure, which eventually breaks the dam, and ... splash. No one spark a shift in momentum like Curry. Just ask the Grizzlies about that 60-foot downer Curry put on 'em in Game 6.
When Stephen Curry is rolling, there's nothing like it in the NBA. (Getty)
When Stephen Curry is rolling, there's nothing like it in the NBA. (Getty)
2. Cavs SF LeBron James: Look, he's still LeBron James. That Game 5 performance still shows that. But he's not that player every game. That consistency has been missing and has shown up on the edges. He's shooting his worst percentage in postseason play since 2008 (42 percent) and only 15 percent from 3-point range. Now, we could see a regression to the mean so steep it could wipe out the dinosaurs with its velocity, but until he's able to show that he's in a place physically to put on that kind of performance every single night, he's behind Curry.
That said, you had better run for your lives if he's staring you down in an elimination game. James, understanding what his team needs given its injury situation, has turned back to old tricks. Postups, punishing smaller defenders and finding the kickout to the shooters he has come to trust on Cleveland. Pick-and-roll cross-court swings. The mid-range jumper if he has it going, but he's not relying on it as much. And defensively, he has been a monster.
3. Warriors SF Draymond Green: That's right. Draymond Green. Not Kyrie Irving (well, that's because of injury) or James Harden. It's Green. Look, threat level should be based on the amount of damage a guy can do to his team's opponents and not many can swing a game like Green. If he's able to shut down Josh Smith's inside-out game while punishing the Rockets for doubling Curry, it makes the Warriors near unstoppable. Green isn't the player Harden or Irving is. But within the context of a playoff game, what he provides is more valuable. He's an un-switchable player. What I mean is, there's no pick-and-roll set you can put him in that will net you the matchup you want, because he can control any matchup. Put him on Dwight Howard? By Game 3, he'll figure out how to disrupt the post entry or pick-and-roll pass. Put him on Josh Smith, recovering off the pick-and-roll help? He'll disrupt the pass in time to contest the 3. Put him on Harden? He'll make Harden work for it.
Offensively, Green has a little bull-in-a-china-shop to him as well. He's the spiritual and emotional core of the Warriors. Curry is their leader, but Green is the field leader and the one who can turn Oracle Arena from a stadium into a post-apocalyptic lunatic convention.
4. Rockets SG James Harden: I feel positively sick putting Harden this low, but not as bad as I feel about this: If Irving were healthy, he would be here. Harden needs free throws. That's his reality. The Rockets are 3-3 in playoff games when Harden shoots fewer than 10 free throws. They are 5-1 in games in which he shoots more than 10. That's not a weakness. Harden plays at an elite level when it comes to drawing contact and forcing whistles, but it still depends on that whistle. It's not within his control. He struggled in the Clippers series, with J.J. Redick doing superb work on him. On the other hand, he stepped up on the biggest stage in Game 7 with 31-7-8.
Harden's defense is what has me most concerned. I spent a significant chunk of the year monitoring, and eventually writing about what a good defender he had become. He had turned a corner and those YouTube disaster highlight reels of him seemed to be gone. They roared back to life in the Clippers series. Whether it was his illness or exhaustion that took him out of it, Harden went back to watching cutters slip in front of him, slide behind him, and not engaging in transition. He has to get that back in the conference finals. It's too important for what Houston needs.
His passing, though, is overlooked. For reference? Harden has 10.3 assists per 100 possessions in the playoffs. Stephen Curry has 9.2.
5. Cavs PG Kyrie Irving: We just don't know what Irving we're going to get and that's a worry. Cleveland's best hope for the title lies with overwhelming opponents with star power, but injuries have compromised them. They still need Irving to deliver. He has put in some gusty performances through two rounds, but he's just not the same guy and the Cavs need him at that level.
If he can get healthy ... watch out. There are two scorers who when healthy are impossible to defend effectively: Curry and Irving. Harden you can deter with long, athletic defenders who understand his timing and rhythm. With James if you can survive in the post you can urge him into jump shots -- and he's not shooting as he did in 2013. But Irving? Irving is out of this world. Only Curry is a better shot-maker and Irving's defense has been simply spectacular in the playoffs. It's the one realm of his game that I'm most impressed with. Even injured, he's plugged in on each possession. There's real maturity there, and James deserves a lot of credit for helping to instill it.
6. Warriors SG Klay Thompson: Thompson's numbers are great. Twenty-five on 48 percent shooting and 48 percent (!!!) from 3-point range. So why doesn't it feel as impressive? It's mostly a matter of context. If you're attacking Curry, Klay's going to be open. His struggles off the dribble with turnovers created some concerns, and overall Thompson feels like a player whose points you can live with if you're trying to deter the rest of the Warriors. He made some great plays in Games 5 and 6 of the Memphis series, and he's still No. 6 here.
That said, if Klay owns his matchup with defense (and his lockdown of Mike Conley was part of what turned that series so quickly), and Harden's defensive woes pop up (or if the Rockets assign Corey Brewer and not Trevor Ariza to him), Thompson can take over the conference finals and the NBA Finals don't present a challenge where he can't shine, either.
7. Rockets C Dwight Howard: When was the last time Howard absolutely dominated a matchup? Just went berserk and won the game for his team? In 2011, the Hawks let him run wild while shutting down his Magic compatriots. Last year his numbers were good but it still felt like the Blazers got the better end of the matchup. You have to go back to the Finals run in 2009 with the Magic and that Game 7 vs. Boston when Howard absolutely dominated to get that feeling vs. a good team.
Can Howard dominate Andrew Bogut? Or is Bogut simply going to frustrate him, aggravate him and generally put Howard on tilt? Can Howard be the defensive presence that shapes a series when the Warriors' attack is outside-in, not inside-out? The post game is a non-starter. It hasn't been efficient enough for years to make the number of possessions he needs to get it going worth it. The Warriors' pick-and-roll coverage is handsy and physical, it annoys you into mistakes and swallows up space to operate. Can Howard's athletic advantage shine there?
Howard's No. 7 out of respect for what he can do defensively. But going into the conference finals, you simply can't believe in that lofty hope of dominance that has been gone for so many years making a return.
8-9. Hawks C Al Horford, PF Paul Millsap: These two go together, and I hate to be "that guy" when it comes to the Hawks' star power, but if you're asking me who's going to have a more explosive series, who can turn a series on its head and dominate the headlines? I can't go to Horford and Millsap. Can't do it.
But they are in this top 10 for a reason. Horford very quietly won the Wizards series. You can talk about the Wall injury or Pierce's buzzer-beater not being in time, but Horford outright took over this series after Game 3 and in large part put the team on his back. He was the best player in that series and it wasn't particularly close. Horford's numbers are pedestrian: 16-10-4 on 49 percent shooting. Good, not great, as is the general consensus of Horford's position in the NBA structure. But he showed in Games 4 and 5 of the Wizards series that he can have impacts that go far beyond the box score. It's deflections, smart passes, big rebounds, key plays. He's an extremely cerebral player, and that puts him in position to swing games and in turn, series.
Let me put it this way: Dwight Howard is a better player than Al Horford, but who would you rather have on your team night after night, given limitations, frustrations and overall playmaking ability?
Millsap has struggled. This is an opportunity to redeem himself and cement what is already going to be a massive payday for him this summer. He's going to spend time on LeBron James in this series and throughout the years, Millsap has done a tremendous job against James, because Millsap in many ways is the B-level power forward flip of James. Nimble enough to play from the perimeter, strong enough to play inside. He's a beast of a man, but he's also facing legit size in the conference finals, and that could be problematic, and then Draymond Green or Josh Smith if they were to advance, and those aren't ideal, either.
Millsap has so much more than what he has shown in the playoffs, be it because of illness, the Hawks' malaise, or matchups. You would hope the best would come at the most opportune time for one of the game's most underrated players and along with Horford, tandems.
10. Cavs SG J.R. Smith: Ugh. I cannot believe I am writing this. As a long-time, and I mean long-time, critic of Smith's game going back to his play-breaking, George-Karl-infuriating days in Denver (and New Orleans before that), it pains me to put him here over guys like Tristan Thompson, Andrew Bogut, Josh Smith, Corey Brewer, Trevor Ariza, Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver (who would definitely be here if his hands could remember how to throw the basketball into the thing with the net), Harrison Barnes or really pretty much any member of the top seven rotations of the four remaining teams.
And yet here he is.
None of the others can shift a game like Smith. When he gets hot, the entire arena starts buzzing. "Here goes J.R." You can almost hear the NBA Jam guy saying "He's heating up!" Smith's play with Cleveland has been about as good as you're going to get. Outside of the unacceptable suspension play he snagged for himself vs. Boston, he has been a model citizen, and hasn't caused the drama he did in New York. He has played within himself, and that's not just a subjective perception. Of Smith's 9.6 shots per game in the playoffs, 6.1 are spot-up attempts, via NBA.com. For J.R. Smith to only take three shots off the dribble? That's remarkable growth.
What's more, his defense has been on point, and he has made big plays with his passing and hustle. Maybe a player really can change at age 29 in the right situation, if he has LeBron there to sit on his shoulder and ward off the basketball demons. Smith has to be considered a series-swinging factor player.
