Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack
-- Coaching Team USA gives Mike Krzyzewski a ridiculous edge in recruiting; he got a commitment from Chase Jeter Monday, a top-flight recruit from Las Vegas. Duke's problem is the kids they get now rarely stay in school very long.
-- Weird baseball schedule this week; seven of 15 mid-week series are interleague series, so lot of teams that aren't too familiar wth each other.
-- Mike Carp comes off the scrap heap, bats 5th in his first game for Texas. Oy.
-- SEC Network will be aired on DirecTV when it starts next week, good news for me; now all we need is the Pac-12 Network to sign up- that doesn't look good.
-- ESPN announced its lineup for the college basketball marathon in November; I'll be out in Las Vegas for it this year, which should be excellent.
-- Some of the better games: SMU-Gonzaga, Utah-San Diego State and a game in South Dakota between Wichita State/Memphis. Yes that says South Dakota.
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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: NFL knowledge for a Tuesday........
13) Houston Texans lost nine games LY by 7 or less points; they never won another game after a 2-0 start. With a new coach/new QB this year, Houston is currently favored in four of its first six games and is expected to bounce back big-time in 2014.
12) New England was 0-4 as a road favorite LY, after being 33-18-2 from 2004-12; they’ve been plus in turnovers eight years in a row and are +79 in turnovers over last four regular seasons, thanks to having an all-time great QB. Over last decade, Patriots are 16-7-1 vs spread as an underdog.
11) Bengals signed Andy Dalton to six-year, $115M contract last weekend; over last four years, Cincy is 22-10 vs spread in game following a wiu, 11-14-4 following a loss. Bengals are 30-18 SU the last three years, an excellent stretch, but pressure is on to win a playoff game or two this year.
10) Yards per point tracks how opportunistic teams are; the lower the better. Denver ranked #1/#2 in NFL in this important stat the last two years, after ranking #21/#23 in the two years before Peyton Manning came to town. Chiefs improved from #27 to #2 in defensive YPP in Andy Reid’s first season in Kansas City LY.
9) Speaking of the Chiefs, they were +18 in turnovers LY after being -24 the year before, a humongous improvement that resulted them improving in wins from 2 to 11- they also improved in sacks from 27 to 47. Normally there is regression after such a huge improvement; will be interesting to track the Chiefs this year.
8) Andy Reid’s old team, the Eagles were -14/-24 in turnovers in Reid’s last two years there but improved to +12 LY and also led the NFL in rushing yards, which is why they won a lot more game in Chip Kelly’s first season.
Sometimes change is good. One thing that still needs to change; over last four years, Iggles are 9-23 at home against the spread.
7) Patriots (21) have most returning starters back from LY, followed by Eagles and Chargers, both with 20.
6) NFC East and NFC South have both had three different champs the last three years; Packers-Patriots-Broncos have all won their divisions each of last three years.
5) In Rex Ryan’s first two years as Jets’ coach, they were 20-12, going +1/+9 in turnovers; they were -3 in their 8-8 season in 2011, then regressed to an awful -14/-14 the last two years, when they went 14-18. LY could be explained away by having a rookie QB playing most of the time, but if Ryan wants a 7th year wearing Jets’ green, he needs to get that turnover ratio back in the black.
4) Giants allowed only 20 sacks in 2012, despite having an immobile Manning at QB; that number doubled LY, their turnover ratio went from +14 to -15 in a hideous season that cost OC Kevin Gilbride his job (you really think the guy retired??? Really?) New OC McAdoo will get Big Blue playing faster and throwing safer passes, to increase Eli’s completion percentage while reducing his sacks/turnovers.
3) Over last decade, Miami Dolphins are 14-35 vs spread when favored, though they are a decent 7-7 as home favorites the last three years. Fish have been minus in turnovers five years in a row, allowed 58 sacks LY in a bizarre season where almost the entire OL turned over during the year. Their chemistry has to be better this year, you just wonder if Tannehill is the right QB for the job; after watching Hard Knocks last summer, I wondered why they liked the guy so much. Friend of mine knows and likes Joe Philbin so we wish him well; this is a pivotal year for him
2) Buffalo Bills haven’t been to the playoffs since 1999; they haven’t been favored in an AFC East road game since 2008. Bills are 5-15-1 vs spread as a road dog the last three years, are 10-18 in last 28 games as a non-divisional road dog.
Is EJ Manuel the QB to make them a contender? You have to love their receivers, but receivers don’t help much without a solid passer getting them the ball.
1) Dallas Cowboys finished 8-8 last three years in a row; LY was first time in eight years they finished outside the top 10 in passing yardage (#14). Turnover ratio does not seem to matter as much with Dallas- they go 8-8 no matter what their ratio is, but they allowed 415 yards per game LY, worst in NFL- they’ve been #27/#22 against the run the last two years. Unless they shore those numbers up, its going to be another mediocre-at-best autumn for America’s Team.
