NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, March 19
Thursday's NCAA games
Notre Dame maxed-out last week winning ACC tourney, its first tourney win; they were solid sleeper choice for Final Four until they got put into Kentucky's region. Fighting Irish are diverse on offense, pass it real well, shoot 39.2% (#17) from arc and have best eFG% in country, but they've also lost in first round of NCAAs three of last four years; last time they made Sweet 16 was 2003. Northeastern drilled 12-20 from arc in winning CAA title game ten days ago; Huskies are 1-2 vs top 100 teams; best win is over #50 Richmond. CAA teams lost in first round last two years by 21-15 points.
UAB won C-USA tournament because it was played in Birmingham and refs wouldn't let them lose semi-final game vs #1 seed La Tech (FTs that game were 32-7). Blazers are 7th-youngest team in America- at one point this year, they were 4-9-- they lost last four games away from home- last road win was Jan 31. UAB turns ball over 20.4 of time, but their coach is Kansas alum and Jayhawks are Iowa State's nemesis. Cyclones won their second straight Big X tournament, but they've been falling behind and then making huge second half runs.
Georgia State's Harrow (hamstring) is a ?? for this game; their coach tore his achilles tendon after they won conference tourney Sunday-- that had to hurt team's prep for this. Panthers lost by 23 at Iowa State Nov 17, its only game vs Big X team this year- they force turnovers 22.8% of time, #16 in country. Sun Belt teams are 1-6 vs spread in last seven tourney games; last Sun Belt win in non-play-in game was Western Kentucky in '09. Baylor is my sleeper pick to make Final Four; #3 seeds are 10-6 vs spread in first round games last four years.
Texas Southern is coached by Mike Davis, who led Indiana to Final Four in 2002; his Tigers played one home game before Jan 17- they were 6-10 playing money grab games all over America, but they beat Michigan State in OT, and won at Kansas State- they have collection of transfers from all over, some of whom have had multiple chances. Arizona expects to get to Final Four; are 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with all five wins by 18+ points- they're 2-4 vs spread in last six first round games. Since '07, SWAC teams are 2-4 against the spread in non-play-in games.
Texas turns ball over 20% of time, is 4th-worst team forcing turnovers in country; Longhorns split last four first round games, with all four games decided by six or less points. Texas went 3-5 in last eight games, finished T6 in Big X (best league in country)- -they were 11-2 out of conference. Butler lost by 13 to Oklahoma of Big X on neutral court in November. Big East teams were 2-4 SU in tourney LY, first year after teams shuffled conferences. Favorites are 9-2-1 in 6-11 games last three years- over last six years, 1st round faves of less than 5 points are 26-53-1 vs number.
UCLA is most controversial choice in this field; SMU was controversial omission from LY's tourney. Bruins won last four first round games, but those were different players- UCLA was a #1 or 2 seed in three of those years, a 6-seed LY. Bruins lost six of last eight games away from home; they're #314 experienced team in country. SMU is 24-3 in last 27 games, with two losses to Cincinnati, a great defensive team- UCLA isn't great on defense. Mustangs are #81 team in experience and have Larry Brown on bench, who won this tourney last time he was in it, though that was 27 years ago.
Ole Miss went nuts in second half Tuesday, scoring 62 points in beating BYU 94-90; Cougars went 15-29 on arc and lost. Rebels have very short turnaround, playing afternoon game- they're 2-4 in last six games, but Ole Miss came as close to anyone to beating Kentucky this year, losing 89-86 in OT at Rupp. Rebels beat Creighton of Big East in November. Kennedy used to coach at Cincinnati, so he is familar with a Xavier team that lost in double OT at Auburn in December (also beat Alabama by 13). Xavier split its last six games; four of their last five wins were by 2 or less or in overtime- they started season 10-3, they're 11-10 in last 21 games.
VCU won A-14 tourney Sunday afternoon, now has Thursday afternoon game 2,900 miles away, tough scheduling spot. Rams won A-14 tourney despite losing PG Weber for season Jan 31- they're better offensive team with Lewis at PG, not as good a pressing team. Rams went 32-72 (44%) from arc in last three games in Brooklyn last week. Ohio State went 4-4 in last eight games; an ESPN sideline reporter (former athlete) said he had severe doubts about Buckeyes' team chemistry after listening to huddles during a game. OSU holds team to 31.8% from arc. Over last six years, underdogs are 16-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 games.
Lafayette coach O'Hanlon went to Villanova; his team was 9-9 in Patriot League before winning conference tourney - they're #2 (41.4%) team in country shooting 3-pointers. Leopards lost at West Virginia by 27, lost at Kansas by 27, lost by 22 at Yale in only three games vs top 100 teams. Villanova is 2-5 vs spread in last seven first round games; they won by 7 over Bucknell in only game vs Patriot team this year. Wildcats probably spent time prepping for second round game (NC State/LSU); they've won last 15 games in row after winning first Big East tourney title in 20 years. Villanova is #27 team in country defending the arc.
Cincinnati lost to Creighton/Harvard in first round last two years; they've won five of last six games overall,. losing to UConn in Hartford last week in AAC tourney. Bearcats have an interim coach (Cronin took ill during season, is an advisor) are #258 experience team but have #19 defensive eFG% in country. Purdue is #311 in experience, is in tournament for first time in three years; Boilers are 2-3 in last five games, turning the ball over 20% of time for season- they were only 8-5 in pre-conference games. Over last eight years, underdogs are 22-10 vs spread in 8-9 games.
Random odd stat: 4-13 game in West has seen the underdog go 12-2-1 vs spread last 15 years, with five SU upsets. Harvard is in tourney for 4th year in row; they won first round game last two years but this team isn't quite as good as those- they lost 76-27 to Virginia, lost at Arizona State by 10 in only two non-conference top 100 games. North Carolina is 4-2 vs spread in last six first round games, winning all six- they've won six of last eight games overall. Ivy teams usually have extra week to prepare for this, but Harvard had to win playoff game Saturday, so they're on same short prep time as Tar Heels. Amaker is a Duke alum, by the way.
Over last 12 years, Southland Conference teams have been single digit dog twice in first round; they won both games ('06/'14), their only two first round wins over that time. SF Austin upset VCU LY for one of the wins; Lumberjacks are 29-4 this year, 61-7 last two years- they're also 1-3 vs top 100 non-league teams, losing by 2-18-16 points in November. Over last five years, underdogs are 17-7 vs spread in 5-12 games. Utah is 3-4 in its last seven games; they're #227 in experience. SFA forces turnovers on 24.3% of possessions (#5 in country).
LSU is in tourney for first time since '09; Tigers lost by 3 to Clemson in only game vs SEC team this year. LSU is #13 in experience but has #21 defensive eFG%. NC State star Barber was banged-up last weekend, is expected to go here as former Alabama coach Gottfried faces an SEC foe in LSU that is 4-2 in last six games but got upset by Auburn in first SEC tourney game a week ago. Wolfpack won four of its last five first round games; they're 6-2 in last eight games overall, 10-4 outside ACC. Again, over last eight years, underdogs are 22-10 vs spread in 8-9 games.
Hampton had nice win over Manhattan Tuesday, turning ball over only 14 times vs Jaspers' press, getting to foul line 34 times- they're playing with house money vs powerful Kentucky team that has its eyes farther down road, as they chase history. Hampton lost at Iowa by 34, Syracuse by 18, Illinois by 18; they turn ball over 20.6% of time which will be a problem. Over last three tournaments, #1 seeds are 4-8 vs spread in first round. Hampton is #79 experienced team in country; Knetucky is 7th youngest team, so at least Pirates have one edge in this game.
12-seed Wofford is highest seed SoCon team has had since Davidson got to Elite 8 as 10-seed with Steph Curry in '08; Terriers won at NC State in December, but lost by 15 at Stanford, 33 at West Virginia, 29 at Duke. Wofford is 0-3 in NCAAs (2-1 vs spread) losing by 4-8-17 points- they lost 57-40 to Michigan in first round LY. Arkansas is in tourney for first time since '08; they force turnovers 22.6% of time, #20 in country. Hogs played Sunday; Wofford hasn't played in 10 days, which is edge for them in this case. Over last five years, dogs are 17-7 vs spread in 5-12 games.
Eastern Washington's coach told Jim Rome on air his team was going to beat Georgetown in this game. His Eagles won conference tourney game on Montana's home court, they won 88-86 at Indiana, lost at SMU by 9, so they're capable,, but Big Sky teams lost last nine tourney games (2-7 vs spread), so there's a gap there somewhere. Georgetown's tournament history is awful, losing three of first four first round games, losing twice as a 13-point favorite. Hoyas' last four games were all decided by six or less points. 4-seeds are 8-4 vs spread in first round last three years.
First of all, nobody in these next three tournaments wants to be here; they all want to be in the NCAAs. Once teams win a game or two, it'll get better, but it is impossible to know who is motivated in the first round. Crowds will be smaller, teams don't travel first class in these events.
NIT games
CBI games
CIT tournament
Northwestern State always plays fast, plays lot of guys and they're good on offense, with #42 eFG%, #22 in fewest turnovers. Demons are 11-3 in last 14 games, but their 5-6 non-conference record is a joke, since four of five wins were non-D1 wins. Tennessee-Martin went 10-6 in OVC but lost three of last four games; Skyhawks have UNLV transfer Smith who came with coach Schroyer; they're #32 team shooting 3's (38.2%).
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, March 19
Thursday's NCAA games
Notre Dame maxed-out last week winning ACC tourney, its first tourney win; they were solid sleeper choice for Final Four until they got put into Kentucky's region. Fighting Irish are diverse on offense, pass it real well, shoot 39.2% (#17) from arc and have best eFG% in country, but they've also lost in first round of NCAAs three of last four years; last time they made Sweet 16 was 2003. Northeastern drilled 12-20 from arc in winning CAA title game ten days ago; Huskies are 1-2 vs top 100 teams; best win is over #50 Richmond. CAA teams lost in first round last two years by 21-15 points.
UAB won C-USA tournament because it was played in Birmingham and refs wouldn't let them lose semi-final game vs #1 seed La Tech (FTs that game were 32-7). Blazers are 7th-youngest team in America- at one point this year, they were 4-9-- they lost last four games away from home- last road win was Jan 31. UAB turns ball over 20.4 of time, but their coach is Kansas alum and Jayhawks are Iowa State's nemesis. Cyclones won their second straight Big X tournament, but they've been falling behind and then making huge second half runs.
Georgia State's Harrow (hamstring) is a ?? for this game; their coach tore his achilles tendon after they won conference tourney Sunday-- that had to hurt team's prep for this. Panthers lost by 23 at Iowa State Nov 17, its only game vs Big X team this year- they force turnovers 22.8% of time, #16 in country. Sun Belt teams are 1-6 vs spread in last seven tourney games; last Sun Belt win in non-play-in game was Western Kentucky in '09. Baylor is my sleeper pick to make Final Four; #3 seeds are 10-6 vs spread in first round games last four years.
Texas Southern is coached by Mike Davis, who led Indiana to Final Four in 2002; his Tigers played one home game before Jan 17- they were 6-10 playing money grab games all over America, but they beat Michigan State in OT, and won at Kansas State- they have collection of transfers from all over, some of whom have had multiple chances. Arizona expects to get to Final Four; are 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with all five wins by 18+ points- they're 2-4 vs spread in last six first round games. Since '07, SWAC teams are 2-4 against the spread in non-play-in games.
Texas turns ball over 20% of time, is 4th-worst team forcing turnovers in country; Longhorns split last four first round games, with all four games decided by six or less points. Texas went 3-5 in last eight games, finished T6 in Big X (best league in country)- -they were 11-2 out of conference. Butler lost by 13 to Oklahoma of Big X on neutral court in November. Big East teams were 2-4 SU in tourney LY, first year after teams shuffled conferences. Favorites are 9-2-1 in 6-11 games last three years- over last six years, 1st round faves of less than 5 points are 26-53-1 vs number.
UCLA is most controversial choice in this field; SMU was controversial omission from LY's tourney. Bruins won last four first round games, but those were different players- UCLA was a #1 or 2 seed in three of those years, a 6-seed LY. Bruins lost six of last eight games away from home; they're #314 experienced team in country. SMU is 24-3 in last 27 games, with two losses to Cincinnati, a great defensive team- UCLA isn't great on defense. Mustangs are #81 team in experience and have Larry Brown on bench, who won this tourney last time he was in it, though that was 27 years ago.
Ole Miss went nuts in second half Tuesday, scoring 62 points in beating BYU 94-90; Cougars went 15-29 on arc and lost. Rebels have very short turnaround, playing afternoon game- they're 2-4 in last six games, but Ole Miss came as close to anyone to beating Kentucky this year, losing 89-86 in OT at Rupp. Rebels beat Creighton of Big East in November. Kennedy used to coach at Cincinnati, so he is familar with a Xavier team that lost in double OT at Auburn in December (also beat Alabama by 13). Xavier split its last six games; four of their last five wins were by 2 or less or in overtime- they started season 10-3, they're 11-10 in last 21 games.
VCU won A-14 tourney Sunday afternoon, now has Thursday afternoon game 2,900 miles away, tough scheduling spot. Rams won A-14 tourney despite losing PG Weber for season Jan 31- they're better offensive team with Lewis at PG, not as good a pressing team. Rams went 32-72 (44%) from arc in last three games in Brooklyn last week. Ohio State went 4-4 in last eight games; an ESPN sideline reporter (former athlete) said he had severe doubts about Buckeyes' team chemistry after listening to huddles during a game. OSU holds team to 31.8% from arc. Over last six years, underdogs are 16-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 games.
Lafayette coach O'Hanlon went to Villanova; his team was 9-9 in Patriot League before winning conference tourney - they're #2 (41.4%) team in country shooting 3-pointers. Leopards lost at West Virginia by 27, lost at Kansas by 27, lost by 22 at Yale in only three games vs top 100 teams. Villanova is 2-5 vs spread in last seven first round games; they won by 7 over Bucknell in only game vs Patriot team this year. Wildcats probably spent time prepping for second round game (NC State/LSU); they've won last 15 games in row after winning first Big East tourney title in 20 years. Villanova is #27 team in country defending the arc.
Cincinnati lost to Creighton/Harvard in first round last two years; they've won five of last six games overall,. losing to UConn in Hartford last week in AAC tourney. Bearcats have an interim coach (Cronin took ill during season, is an advisor) are #258 experience team but have #19 defensive eFG% in country. Purdue is #311 in experience, is in tournament for first time in three years; Boilers are 2-3 in last five games, turning the ball over 20% of time for season- they were only 8-5 in pre-conference games. Over last eight years, underdogs are 22-10 vs spread in 8-9 games.
Random odd stat: 4-13 game in West has seen the underdog go 12-2-1 vs spread last 15 years, with five SU upsets. Harvard is in tourney for 4th year in row; they won first round game last two years but this team isn't quite as good as those- they lost 76-27 to Virginia, lost at Arizona State by 10 in only two non-conference top 100 games. North Carolina is 4-2 vs spread in last six first round games, winning all six- they've won six of last eight games overall. Ivy teams usually have extra week to prepare for this, but Harvard had to win playoff game Saturday, so they're on same short prep time as Tar Heels. Amaker is a Duke alum, by the way.
Over last 12 years, Southland Conference teams have been single digit dog twice in first round; they won both games ('06/'14), their only two first round wins over that time. SF Austin upset VCU LY for one of the wins; Lumberjacks are 29-4 this year, 61-7 last two years- they're also 1-3 vs top 100 non-league teams, losing by 2-18-16 points in November. Over last five years, underdogs are 17-7 vs spread in 5-12 games. Utah is 3-4 in its last seven games; they're #227 in experience. SFA forces turnovers on 24.3% of possessions (#5 in country).
LSU is in tourney for first time since '09; Tigers lost by 3 to Clemson in only game vs SEC team this year. LSU is #13 in experience but has #21 defensive eFG%. NC State star Barber was banged-up last weekend, is expected to go here as former Alabama coach Gottfried faces an SEC foe in LSU that is 4-2 in last six games but got upset by Auburn in first SEC tourney game a week ago. Wolfpack won four of its last five first round games; they're 6-2 in last eight games overall, 10-4 outside ACC. Again, over last eight years, underdogs are 22-10 vs spread in 8-9 games.
Hampton had nice win over Manhattan Tuesday, turning ball over only 14 times vs Jaspers' press, getting to foul line 34 times- they're playing with house money vs powerful Kentucky team that has its eyes farther down road, as they chase history. Hampton lost at Iowa by 34, Syracuse by 18, Illinois by 18; they turn ball over 20.6% of time which will be a problem. Over last three tournaments, #1 seeds are 4-8 vs spread in first round. Hampton is #79 experienced team in country; Knetucky is 7th youngest team, so at least Pirates have one edge in this game.
12-seed Wofford is highest seed SoCon team has had since Davidson got to Elite 8 as 10-seed with Steph Curry in '08; Terriers won at NC State in December, but lost by 15 at Stanford, 33 at West Virginia, 29 at Duke. Wofford is 0-3 in NCAAs (2-1 vs spread) losing by 4-8-17 points- they lost 57-40 to Michigan in first round LY. Arkansas is in tourney for first time since '08; they force turnovers 22.6% of time, #20 in country. Hogs played Sunday; Wofford hasn't played in 10 days, which is edge for them in this case. Over last five years, dogs are 17-7 vs spread in 5-12 games.
Eastern Washington's coach told Jim Rome on air his team was going to beat Georgetown in this game. His Eagles won conference tourney game on Montana's home court, they won 88-86 at Indiana, lost at SMU by 9, so they're capable,, but Big Sky teams lost last nine tourney games (2-7 vs spread), so there's a gap there somewhere. Georgetown's tournament history is awful, losing three of first four first round games, losing twice as a 13-point favorite. Hoyas' last four games were all decided by six or less points. 4-seeds are 8-4 vs spread in first round last three years.
First of all, nobody in these next three tournaments wants to be here; they all want to be in the NCAAs. Once teams win a game or two, it'll get better, but it is impossible to know who is motivated in the first round. Crowds will be smaller, teams don't travel first class in these events.
NIT games
CBI games
CIT tournament
Northwestern State always plays fast, plays lot of guys and they're good on offense, with #42 eFG%, #22 in fewest turnovers. Demons are 11-3 in last 14 games, but their 5-6 non-conference record is a joke, since four of five wins were non-D1 wins. Tennessee-Martin went 10-6 in OVC but lost three of last four games; Skyhawks have UNLV transfer Smith who came with coach Schroyer; they're #32 team shooting 3's (38.2%).
