Cnotes All You Need To Know About Big Dance Notes-Stats-Trends Etc. !

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

-- Former NBA sharpshooter Mark Price has been an NBA assistant since 2007, is the new basketball coach at Charlotte, which has jumped between conferences due to starting up a new football program. Price will be interesting to follow.

-- East Tennessee State signed on Steve Forbes as its new coach; he was a bigtime JC coach who was an assistant at Wichita State the last two years.

-- On Opening Day, Pedro Alvarez will become the Pirates' 54th first baseman in their 129-year history.

-- Hawks/Warriors have already clinched top seeds for the NBA playoffs.

-- Brian Wardle jumps from Green Bay to Bradley, which becomes a much better job if Gregg Marshall leaves Wichita State.

-- Ill-Chicago signed on Steve McClain, who was 157-115 at Wyoming; not sure why they fired him, but he's been at Indiana under Tom Crean the last few years.



**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.......

13) Kentucky 68, Notre Dame 66-- Tremendous game; young Wildcats had poise down stretch, when they looked to be in deep trouble. Jerian Grant never came out of any of the Irish's four tournament games- he was only 4-14 in this game.

12) Wisconsin 85, Arizona 78-- Badgers were 10-12 on arc in second half, as Sean Miller lost in regional final for fourth time in last eight years. 2-seeds are now 11-4 in last fifteen regional final meetings with a 1-seed.

11) Last 12+ years, underdogs are now 33-17 vs spread in regional finals.

10) Apparently Texas wanted Rick Barnes to fire all his assistant coaches, and he wouldn't, so now Barnes is gone after 17 years in Austin. Some of these colleges haven't a clue; they're going to have a hard time finding someone who will be as successful as Barnes was.

9) The Barnes move screws Alabama, since they're an even worse basketball job than the Texas job-- there are a lot of great high school/JC players in Texas.

8) Just for the record, Barnes' wife went to Tennessee; he'll be signed up by the Vols before very long. He'll also be their fourth coach in the last six seasons.

7) It'll be an interesting week to be the agent for Gregg Marshall and Shaka Smart, but if those guys stay where they are, thats when the real fun will start.

6) Kentucky fans better enjoy this because someday soon, John Calipari is going to go back and try the NBA again, then the Wildcats are up a creek , because he created a monster whose fanbase will never be satisfied with anything other than a national title. If you don't think replacing Calipari is difficult, ask Josh Pastner in Memphis.

5) Arizona gave Yosmany Tomas a lot of cash, but now it turns out he isn't a good third baseman and may be more of a DH-type, which would be OK if Arizona was in the American League, but they aren't. He may have to start the year in AAA.

4) Shouldn't everyone who coaches in professional baseball learn Spanish?

3) Watching replay of a Royals-Diamondbacks exhibition game and they're doing a dugout interview with Mark Grace, who is an assistant hitting coach after he had been the analyst on Arizona's TV broadcasts. Grace was a classic on TV and is missed, but it sounds like he is happy and healthy and thats the main thing.

2) It snowed here in beautfiul upstate New York Saturday, nine days before Opening Day of baseball season, two days after I came back from Las Vegas. No bueno.

1) Why in God's name is Russell Wilson playing baseball? His agent must have a coronary every time the phone rings. He could lose hundreds of millions if he has some kind of an arm injury.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, March 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MICHIGAN ST (26 - 11) vs. LOUISVILLE (27 - 8) - 3/29/2015, 2:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 42-30 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 42-30 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GONZAGA (35 - 2) vs. DUKE (32 - 4) - 3/29/2015, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 22-14 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
DUKE is 22-14 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
DUKE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
DUKE is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DUKE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
DUKE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
GONZAGA is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
GONZAGA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GONZAGA is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.
DUKE is 53-77 ATS (-31.7 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, March 30

Izzo is 20-4 in turnaround games in NCAA tournament; his staff is great at getting kids ready to play on short rest. Michigan State won seven of last eight games overall; Spartans are 1-2 vs ACC teams this year, with upset of Virginia last weekend, losing to Notre Dame in OT by a point, Duke by 10. Louisville threw its PG off team in mid-February but has now progressed to this point; Cardinals are trying for third Final Four in last four years. Big 14 teams are 7-8 vs spread this postseason, 3-4 as a favorite. ACC teams are 10-10 vs spread, 5-1 as underdogs. Izzo is 12-9 in tournament games when lower-seed.

Gonzaga is trying for its first Final Four; Bulldogs have experience edge here (#39, Duke is #330 in experience) but Blue Devil program has better history on its side. Duke won 15 of last 16 games; they're 15-0 outside ACC, allowing 54 ppg in first three tourney wins. Gonzaga's only losses this season were by 3 points each, at Arizona in OT, at home to BYU. ACC teams are 10-10 vs spread this postseason, 5-9 as favorite. WCC teams are 2-5 vs spread, all as favorites. Look at regional finals between 1-2 seeds: since 2003, 2-seeds are 11-4 SU against 1-seeds in regional finals- since '09, 1-seeds are 5-9 vs spread in regional finals.




NCAAB

Sunday, March 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2:20 PM
MICHIGAN STATE vs. LOUISVILLE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Louisville's last 15 games
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

5:05 PM
GONZAGA vs. DUKE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Duke's last 5 games
Duke is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Sunday, March 30


Renewed defensive focus has Duke going under

As the regular season ended nobody was going to call Duke the best defensive team around, but they have stepped up their game starting the ACC Conference Tournament. This renewed defensive game has caused the Blue Devils to go under the total in their past five contests.

Duke has been holding opponents to an average of 57.8 points in their past five, compared to allowing 64.8 points per game in the regular season. The defensive focus has also slowed Duke's offense as they have averaged nearly seven points less per game in those past four as well.



Sunday's NCAAB betting cheat sheet: Elite Eight

Michigan State Spartans vs. Louisville Cardinals (+2.5, 128.5)

While other matchups in the Elite Eight feature some of the nation's best players, such as Duke's Jahlil Okafor, Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky and Kentucky's litany of future NBA draft picks, the East Regional final features a different kind of star-studded affair. Michigan State's Tom Izzo and Louisville's Rick Pitino are two of the best coaches in the country and after working their March magic yet again, their teams will square off in Syracuse, N.Y. on Sunday for a berth in the Final Four. The fourth-seeded Cardinals and seventh-seeded Spartans are the two lowest-seeded teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament.

After his team knocked off the region's No. 2 and 3 seeds in the last two rounds, Izzo is one win away from his seventh trip to the Final Four - all since 1999. "He is the best at what he does," Spartans guard Lourawls Nairn Jr. told reporters. "We're real confident in whatever he tells us to do. As long as we focus on what he tells us to do, we'll be fine." Regarding Pitino, who has been to seven Final Fours - one with Providence, three with Kentucky and three with Louisville, Cardinals forward Montrezl Harrell told reporters: "Everybody has bought into the mentality that Coach wanted and everybody wants the same goal."

TV: 2:20 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: Most online books opened Louisville +2, but quickly moved the line to +2.5. The total opened at 128.5 and has yet to shift.

INJURY REPORT: N/A

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (26-11 SU, 21-16 ATS, 19-15-2 O/U): Travis Trice has increased his scoring in all three games of the tournament, going from 15 points in the opener to 23 in an upset of second-seeded Virginia and 24 against Oklahoma, as the senior guard is shooting 10-of-22 from 3-point range in the Big Dance. The Spartans have reached the Elite Eight despite Denzel Valentine shooting 7-of-23 over the last two games and a disappointing team-wide 58.8 free-throw percentage in the tournament. "One more victory would be one of the more sweeter moments of my career," acknowledged Izzo, who is 12-9 in the NCAA Tournament when his team has the lower seed.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (27-8 SU, 13-19-2 ATS, 13-17-1 O/U): The Cardinals dismissed Chris Jones - the team's third-leading scorer - from the team in late February but still are one win from their third Final Four trip in the last four seasons. The catalysts for Pitino's latest magical run have been Terry Rozier, who had 17 points and a career-high 14 rebounds in the Sweet 16, and Harrell, whose 24 points against the Sooners were his most since Feb. 11. "I can't say enough about him because he's the toughest guy I've ever coached and he never lets me down," Pitino said of Harrell, who is 12-of-14 from the foul line in the tournament after shooting 58.3 percent over the first 32 games.

TRENDS:

*Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
*Cardinals are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 neutral site games.
*Over is 7-3 in Spartans last 10 overall.
*Under is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: 60.06 percent of users are backing Michigan State -2.5 with 56.7 percent on the under.



Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Duke Blue Devils (-2.5, 145)

Gonzaga is one win away from its first trip to the Final Four, but the last remaining obstacle is a significant one. The Bulldogs have lost only twice all season - by a total of six points - but now they must get past Duke when the teams meet Sunday in Houston in the South Regional final. Second-seeded Gonzaga is in its first Elite Eight since 1999, while top-seeded Duke is one win from its 16th appearance in the Final Four and its first since 2010.

The Blue Devils won the national championship that year with a veteran lineup, but the current group of Duke stars is a trio of freshmen complemented by a sturdy senior in the backcourt. Justise Winslow starred in Duke's Sweet 16 victory against Utah, while fellow freshman Jahlil Okafor matched a season low with six points and hopes to bounce back against Gonzaga with NBA scouts watching him closely. The Bulldogs rode their two big men, Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis, to a regional semifinal win against UCLA but likely need more production from their star players on Sunday.

TV: 5:05 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: Duke opened at either -2 or -2.5 initially, but was -2.5 at most books rather quickly. The total opened at 146.5 before dropping to 144.5, then rebounding to 145.

INJURY REPORT: N/A

ABOUT GONZAGA (35-2 SU, 18-14-2 ATS, 19-13 O/U): Karnowski and Sabonis are the third- and fifth-leading scorers for the Bulldogs, but they combined for 30 points and 17 rebounds while their teammates struggled to 13-of-47 shooting against UCLA. Among the players who need to step up Sunday are Kyle Wiltjer, who averages a team-high 16.8 points but totaled eight on 4-of-12 shooting Friday, and Kevin Pangos (11.8 points), who went 1-of-7 from 3-point range en route to 10 points against the Bruins. "The one accomplishment that we haven't done is reach the Final Four and we finally have an opportunity to do that," said Bulldogs coach Mark Few, whose team went 10-of-16 from 3-point range in the round of 32 before going 3-of-19 in the Sweet 16.

ABOUT DUKE (32-4 SU, 21-14-1 ATS, 18-16 O/U): A native of Houston, Winslow shot 8-of-14 from the field and 3-of-4 from the arc en route to 21 points and 10 rebounds against Utah to finish with his third double-double in the last four games. "Justise played like a man all night. He did everything we needed," said senior guard Quinn Cook, who had 11 points to join Winslow and freshman Tyus Jones (15) in double figures. The Utes employed constant double-teams on Okafor, who attempted only six shots and only took one free throw while committing four turnovers in perhaps the worst game of his Blue Devils career.

TRENDS:

*Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
*Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
*Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 non-conference games.
*Under is 5-0 in Blue Devils last 5 overall.

CONSENSUS: 52.14 percent of users are on Duke -2.5 with 60.5 percent on the over.

The Blue Devils meet Gonzaga in Elite Eight action with a current total of 144.5.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Sunday, March 30


Michigan State vs Louisville

Game 719-720
March 29, 2015 @ 2:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Michigan State
69.845
Louisville
65.154
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan State
by 4 1/2
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan State
by 2 1/2
128
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan State
(-2 1/2); Over

Gonzaga vs Duke

Game 721-722
March 29, 2015 @ 5:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Gonzaga
75.710
Duke
74.091
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Gonzaga
by 1 1/2
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Duke
by 2 1/2
144 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Gonzaga
(+2 1/2); Over

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Top Action


March 29, 2015




MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (26-11) vs. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (27-8)


Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY
NCAA Tournament – Elite Eight
Tip-off: Sunday, 2:20 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Michigan State -2.5, Total 128.5


Louisville and Michigan State will duke it out for a spot in the Final Four when the teams meet at the Carrier Dome Sunday.


Michigan State faced Oklahoma in the Sweet 16 and came away with a 62-58 victory as a 1-point favorite. The Spartans have now won-and-covered in all three of their NCAA tournament games and they are playing excellent defense, allowing just 58.3 PPG in those contests.


Louisville, meanwhile, defeated North Carolina State 75-65 as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. The Cardinals have covered in two straight games and have gotten it going offensively in those victories, averaging 70.5 PPG in those wins. They’ll need to keep scoring the ball efficiently, as they have the defense to keep them in pretty much any game.


These teams last played each other on Mar. 22, 2012. The Cardinals won that game 57-44 as 5.5-point underdogs, but that is their only win both SU and ATS versus the Spartans in their three meetings since 1997.


Michigan State is 13-6 ATS when playing only their second game in a week this season. Louisville, however, is an impressive 18-7 ATS in March games over the past three seasons.


The Cardinals come into this game completely healthy but the Spartans will not have Javon Bess (Foot), who is out for the season.


Michigan State has been one of the best two-way teams in the nation this year, averaging 71.9 PPG (67th in NCAA) on 47.1% shooting (32nd in NCAA). The Spartans are allowing just 63.0 PPG (82nd in NCAA) on the defensive end, and they allowed just 58 against Oklahoma in the Sweet 16.


G Travis Trice (15.3 PPG, 5.1 APG, 3.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG) has been playing out of his mind in this tournament. Over the past two games, Trice is averaging 23.5 PPG and he is 14-for-29 from the field and 8-for-17 from three in those contests. Trice is an excellent shooter from the outside (37% 3PT) and will need to keep up his hot streak against a tough Louisville defense.


G Denzel Valentine (14.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 4.4 APG) had just four points in the 3rd round against Virginia, but he responded with 18 points and seven rebounds in 38 minutes against Oklahoma in the Sweet 16. Valentine can really shoot from deep (42% 3PT) and also does everything else well. He’ll find his teammates when his shot isn’t falling and he always hits the glass hard. He must play well against Louisville in order for the Spartans to advance.


F Branden Dawson (11.9 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.6 BPG) is the guy that will need to man the inside for Michigan State. He’ll be going against a very good Louisville frontcourt, but he can’t afford to not show up. He had just six points against Oklahoma last game, but he did grab 11 boards and block a shot.


Louisville hasn’t been great offensively this season (69.2 PPG, 130th in NCAA; 42.9% FG, 211th in NCAA), but the team has gotten it going recently. The Cardinals are averaging 70.5 PPG over the past two games and that makes them extremely tough to beat with their stingy defense (59.4 PPG allowed, 17th in NCAA).


G Terry Rozier (17.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.9 SPG) is a menace on both sides of the ball for Rick Pitino. Rozier was an animal against NC State, finishing with 17 points, 14 rebounds and four assists in 40 minutes of action. He is relentless when attacking the rim and must continue to do so against the Spartans.


F Montrezl Harrell (15.7 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.2 BPG) was also unstoppable against NC State on Friday. Harrell had 24 points, seven rebounds, four assists and a block in 40 minutes. He is a very good rim protector and is also capable of dunking anything from within five feet of the basket. He’ll need to perform at a high level against Dawson on Sunday.


G Wayne Blackshear (11.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is a good defender and a solid outsider shooter (32% 3PT) for this Louisville team. He’s averaging 13.0 PPG in the tournament so far and he’ll need to play some solid defense against Valentine in this game.


G Quentin Snider (4.1 PPG, 1.3 APG) will be an x-factor in this game. He has played great since stepping in as a starter for the Cardinals and is averaging 13.3 PPG in three tournament games so far.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Elite Eight Tips


March 28, 2015




All four favorites won their regional semifinal matchup on Friday, more importantly they covered against the spread too. This Sweet 16 clean sweep sets up a pair of highly anticipated showdowns this Sunday afternoon in the Elite 8 Round. On the line is a trip to the Final Four from the right side of the bracket in this year’s men’s NCAA Tournament.


East Regional - No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 4 Louisville (CBS, 2:20 p.m. ET)
Venue: Carrier Dome
Location: Syracuse, NY
Betting Odds: Michigan State -2 ½, Total 129


The Spartans came into this tournament as the most feared No. 7 seed in the field and they have held true to form with a three-game run to the Elite 8 both straight-up and against the spread. The biggest win came in the third round when they knocked-out No. 2 Virginia 60-54 as 4 ½-point underdogs. Michigan State advanced to the East Region final with Friday’s 62-58 victory against No. 3 Oklahoma as a sight one-point favorite. The total stayed UNDER in both of these games.

If Michigan State does go on to the Final Four you can almost guarantee that senior guard Travis Trice had another big game. Through his first three contests in this tournament he has scored 62 points while going 20-for-44 from the field including a 10-for-22 effort from three-point range. Michigan State is averaging 71.9 points per game and shooting 47.1 percent from the field. On the other end of the court it is allowing an average of 63 PPG.


Louisville’s run through the East Region includes a 66-53 upset of No. 5 Northern Iowa as a 2 ½-point underdog and Friday’s 75-65 victory over No. 8 NC State as a 2 ½-point favorite. The Cardinals are now 7-2 SU in their last nine contests and 3-2 ATS in their last five games. This followed a bit of a rough patch for bettors with Louisville going just 1-5 ATS in its previous six regular season games. It is 4-2 ATS in six games as an underdog this season.


The Cardinals’ success in this tournament has been fueled by the elevated play of sophomore guard Terry Rozier and junior forward Montrezl Harrell. In the three games, Rozier has posted 54 points, 22 rebounds and 16 assists to Harrell’s 46 points, 17 rebounds and six assists. Louisville is averaging 69.2 PPG this season and defensively it is holding teams to 59.4 PPG.


Betting Trends:


-- The Spartans have covered ATS in five of their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games in the NCAA Tournament.


-- The Cardinals have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against a Big Ten team and they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last 12 games in this tournament.


-- These two last faced one another in the 2012 NCAA Tournament and Louisville came away with a 57-44 victory as a 5 ½-point underdog. The total stayed UNDER the closing 125-point line.


South Regional - No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Duke (CBS, 5:05 p.m.)
Venue: NRG Stadium
Location: Houston, TX
Betting Odds: Duke -2 ½, Total 145


Gonzaga was penciled-in all the way to the Final Four on quite a few brackets before this tournament got underway and so far it remains on track with solid wins over No. 7 Iowa and No. 11 UCLA both SU and ATS. The Bulldogs have now gone a perfect 6-0 SU in their last six outings including a 4-1 mark ATS in their last five games. The total stayed UNDER the closing 144 ½-point line in this past Friday’s 74-62 win against the Bruins after going OVER in their previous five games.


Gonzaga got past UCLA shooting just 40. 3 percent from the field after leading the nation this season with a 52.4 field goal percentage. Junior forward Kyle Wiltjer has been a force during this three-game run with 55 points and 25 rebounds, but it was junior center Przemek Karnowski who came up big against the Bruins with a game-high 18 points and nine rebounds. The Bulldogs are 10th in the nation in scoring with 79.1 PPG.


The top-seeded Blue Devils come into this region final with three-straight covers in this tournament. They covered a 22 ½-point spread in a 29-point victory over No. 16 Robert Morris and against No. 8 San Diego State they won by 19 points as nine-point favorites. This past Friday, Duke beat No. 5 Utah 63-57 as a 4 ½-point favorite to improve to 7-1 ATS in its last eight contests. The total has now stayed UNDER in seven of its last eight games.


The Blue Devils match-up well against Gonzaga on the scoreboard with an average of 80.6 PPG and they are ranked third in the nation shooting the ball with a field goal percentage of 50.2. Freshman center Jahlil Okafor posted a game-high 26 points in the 68-49 victory over San Diego State and freshman forward Justise Winslow came up big in Friday’s win with 21 points and 10 rebounds.


Betting Trends:


-- The Bulldogs have gone 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against an ACC team, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral-site games. The total has gone OVER in 20 of their last 27 games in the NCAA Tournament.


-- The Blue Devils have now covered ATS in five of their last seven NCAA Tournament games and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last nine games in the NCAA Tournament.


-- The last time these two teams played each other was in the 2009 regular season with Duke hammering the Bulldogs 76-41 as an 8 ½-point home favorite. The total in that game stayed UNDER the closing 153-point line.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Some more baseball over/under prop bets, courtesy of South Point casino.......

-- Total home runs for Miguel Cabrera, 31

-- Total wins for Jered Weaver, 13.5

-- Total hits for Pablo Sandoval, 156

-- Total hits for Robinson Cano, 173.5

-- Total wins for Johnny Cueto, 12.5

-- Total home runs for Albert Pujols, 26.5



**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend......

13) Michigan State 76, Louisville 70 OT-- Izzo is now 21-4 in turnaround games, as Spartans bench had 26-5 scoring edge in game they trailed by 8 at half. This is 4th time in last five years a team seeded 7th or lower made the Final Four.

12) Duke 66, Gonzaga 52-- Zags' Wiltjer had an easy layup to tie game with 4:51 left, but missed badly and Gonzaga was outscored 13-1 from that point on. Three 1-seeds make the Final Four, most since all four made it in '08. Last five years, only one 1-seed each year had made the Final Four.

11) DePaul hired Dave Leitao as its coach, 10 years after he bolted DePaul to be head coach at Virginia. Leitao got the Blue Demons to NCAAs in 2004, when they played in what was a pretty good Conference USA. Twitter mainly bashed the hiring, but the guy knows the school, has had success there, and he'll probably stay there.

10) St John's has offered Chris Mullin its coaching job; no answer yet. Mullin has no coaching experience, but is an alumnus and a famous name who has been an NBA GM-- Interweb reports say he is expected to accept the job.

9) Former Manhattan coach Barry Rohrssen is a good pal of Mullin's and would be an ace recruiter for the Red Storm, but he's still a little busy, being an assistant coach for Kentucky. Mullin will need to hire two solid recruiters.

8) Cal-Irvine's Russell Turner turned George Mason down; he has some experience in the NBA, so likely could land a bigger job than George Mason down the road. Plus, he has 7-foot-6 Ndiaye coming back; the Anteaters will be good again next season.

7) Utah State waited a long time before announcing they hired from within, naming assistant coach Tim Duryea to replace longtime coach Stew Morrill.

6) One more Izzo note: he is now 13-9 in NCAA tourney games when they wear green jerseys, which means they're the lower-seeded team. 13-9 as a lower seed.

5) Would people really buy a Buick just because it has WiFi? Seriously?

4) Little unusual that college hockey takes this week off, waiting until April 9-11 to have the Frozen Four. Extra week gets them lot more attention, since basketball will obviously be front-and-center all this week.

3) Jimmy Walker wins the PGA Tour event in San Antonio, making him first repeat winner this season, and first 54-hole leader in 11 weeks to win that tournament.

2) In last 12 NCAA tournaments, eight regional final games went to overtime; thats 8 out of 48 games, a pretty high number.

1) At no point this season did I think Michigan State was a Final Four team; they lost at home to Texas Southern Dec 20, they're 3-5 in overtime games this year, lost at home to Minnesota and Illinois, but they're mentally tough and they're still playing.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAA Tournament Opening Betting Line Report: Inside the Final Four odds

After two weekends of wall-to-wall basketball, full of heart-pounding wins and losses – for teams, bettors and sportsbooks alike – the NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four. And it should be just as much of a screamer as the rest of the Big Dance.

You’ve got top overall seed Kentucky (38-0 SU, 19-17-2 ATS) aiming to complete a perfect season, something that hasn’t been done since Indiana accomplished the feat in 1976. The Wildcats got arguably their sternest test all season when they held off No. 3 seed Notre Dame 68-66 as an 11-point favorite in the Midwest Region final Saturday. That gave Kentucky a date with fellow top seed Wisconsin (35-3 SU, 20-17-1 ATS), which bested No. 2 seed Arizona 85-78 as a 1.5-point underdog in the West final.

On Sunday, No. 1 seed Duke (33-4 SU, 22-14-1 ATS) stifled No. 2 seed Gonzaga 66-52 laying 1.5 points in the South final, and No. 7 seed Michigan State (27-11 SU, 22-16 ATS) – a 2-point chalk – topped No. 4 seed Louisville 76-70 in overtime in the East final.

So how do things shape up for the Final Four? John Avello, executive director of race and sports for The Wynn, and John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, provide Covers with their insights.

No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Kentucky (-6.5)

It’s a rematch from last year’s Final Four, which Kentucky won 74-73 to push as a 1-point fave.

“This is one of the lower numbers Kentucky’s had through the whole year,” Avello told Covers, and in fact, the ‘Cats have been double-digit chalk in all their postseason games – in the SEC and NCAA tourneys. “Wisconsin is a quality team, with good shooters outside and great players inside. Now, they need to beat the big dog to have a chance to win the title.

“In my ratings, I had Kentucky at 5.5 or 6, but that just felt a little light to me.”

Lester said his crew batted around a range of numbers before going with Avello’s initial feeling, making Kentucky a 5.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.

“Many believed these were the best two teams in the country coming into the tournament, and you could easily make that argument now,” Lester told Covers. “Kentucky has been a public darling all year of course, but the Badgers have had a lot of square and sharp support throughout the Big Dance.

“Our guys were between 4 to 7 points for this matchup. We shaded toward the favorite because we will need to attract some money on Wisconsin.”

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Duke (-5.5)

Duke is no surprise in the matchup. Michigan State is, to a degree.

“You’ve got a team nobody expected to get there this year,” Avello said. “Michigan State has a history of getting through the tournament, but this year didn’t seem like their year. Hats off to Coach Tom Izzo again for the way he gets his team ready to win it all – not to win the Big Ten, but to win it all.”

So what about the number?

“At the beginning of the tournament, Duke would have been favored by 8 to 9 points over Michigan State,” Avello said. “My adjustment has been made. Michigan State is better now than at the beginning of the tournament, but is Duke worse? I don’t think so.”

As with the Wisconsin-Kentucky line, Lester came in a little tighter, with Michigan State opening at +4.5. But he entertained 5.5 and fully expects the number to jump.

“The Spartans just feel like that team of destiny, like UConn last year. But they are overmatched from a personnel perspective here,” Lester said. “Michigan State claws to come back and win games, while the Blue Devils grind to preserve wins.

“I felt like we could’ve made this a point higher, and I’m expecting the number to jump throughout the week.”

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Monday, March 30

Louisiana-Monroe vs Loyola-Chicago

Game 745-746
March 30, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Louisiana-Monroe
51.610
Loyola-Chicago
60.832
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Loyola-Chicago
by 9
126
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Loyola-Chicago
by 5 1/2
131 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Loyola-Chicago
(-5 1/2); Under




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, March 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA-MONROE (24 - 12) at LOYOLA-IL (22 - 13) - 3/30/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOYOLA-IL is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
LA-MONROE is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
LA-MONROE is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
LA-MONROE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
LA-MONROE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
LA-MONROE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in road games this season.
LA-MONROE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in road lined games this season.
LA-MONROE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, March 30

CBI games (best-of-3 series, 0-0)
Loyola is 13-2 in non-conference games, winning first three games in this event by 3-8-15 points; Ramblers won six of last seven games, losing to Northern Iowa in Arch Madness- they've been helped by Doyle's return; he scored 15 ppg last three games. UL-Monroe won last three games by 4-2-6 points, after going 3-4 in previous seven games; Warhawks are 5-5 non-conference D-I games- they had four non-D1 wins. Sun Belt teams are 6-1 vs spread this postseason, 4-1 as underdogs; MVC teams are 5-5 against the spread as a favorite this postseason.




NCAAB

Monday, March 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 PM
LOUISIANA-MONROE vs. LOYOLA OF CHICAGO
Louisiana-Monroe is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Loyola of Chicago's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Loyola of Chicago's last 6 games

 

[CNOTES]

NIT Semifinals Tips


March 30, 2015


This year’s NCAA Tournament starts back up this Saturday with the Final Four, but college hoops bettors will have plenty of action to keep them busy this Tuesday night with a pair of matchups in both the semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament and the College Insider Tournament.


NIT Semifinal - No. 2 Miami (FL) vs. No. 1 Temple (ESPN, 7 p.m.)
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Location: New York City, NY
Betting Odds: Temple -1 ½, Total 141


The Miami Hurricanes made their way to the NIT semifinals as the No. 2 seed in Region 2. After failing to cover against the spread in an opening round 75-71 victory against No. 7 North Carolina Central as 8 ½-point favorites, the Hurricanes went on to knockoff No. 6 Alabama 73-66 as 4 ½-point favorites and No. 1 Richmond 63-61 as 2 ½-point underdogs. Miami is now 7-2 straight-up in its last nine games while going 4-5 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in three of its last five games.


The Hurricanes were dealt a blow when their second-leading scorer Angel Rodriguez was lost to a wrist injury, but both Manu Lecomte and JaQuan Newton are listed as probable for Tuesday night. Junior guard Sheldon McClellan has led the way all season with 14.4 points per game and he had the hot hand in last Tuesday’s victory against Richmond with 16 points while going 6-for 13 from the field.


Temple’s run through Region 1 on the NIT as the top seed included victories against No. 8 Bucknell and No. 5 George Washington, but its best effort came in last Wednesday’s 77-59 win against No. 3 Louisiana Tech as a four-point favorite. The Owls are now 7-1 SU in their last eight games with a 5-3 record ATS. The total stayed UNDER the closing 146 ½-point line in last Wednesday’s win after it had gone OVER in four of their previous six games.


Three of five Temple starters scored in double figures against Louisiana Tech led by junior guard Quenton DeCosey’s game-high 21 points. He also pulled down 11 of the Owls 39 rebounds to help pace the win. Temple is shooting just 38.4 percent from the field this season, but in that game it made good on 49. 1 percent of its 55 shots.


Betting Trends:


-- The Hurricanes are 7-4 ATS this season in 11 previous games as underdogs, but they are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games following a SU win.


-- The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games outside the their conference and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight games against a team from the ACC.


-- These two last met in the 2005/2006 regular season with Temple coming away with a 73-56 victory as a 3 ½-point home favorite.


NIT Semifinal - No. 2 Stanford vs. No. 1 Old Dominion (ESPN, 9 p.m.)
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Location: New York City, NY
Betting Odds: Stanford -2 ½, Total 138


Stanford came into this year’s NIT as the No. 2 seed in Region 3. It started things off with a 77-64 victory over No. 7 UC Davis while covering as an 8 ½-point favorite. The Cardinal also covered as five-point favorites in a 74-65 win against No. 3 Rhode Island, but they came up short as 4 ½-point favorites in last Tuesday’s 78-75 victory against No. 5 Vanderbilt. Before this tournament, Stanford was just 1-4 SU in its previous five contests while failing to cover in all five games.


The duo of senior guards Chasson Randle and Anthony Brown have done much of the damage for Stanford in this tournament. Randle leads the team in scoring with 19.3 PPG, but he has averaged 23 points in his last three games. Brown is second on the team with 15 PPG and he led the way against Vanderbilt with 26 points. On the injury front, both Grant Verhoeven and Michael Humphrey remain questionable for Tuesday night after missing their last several games.


The Monarchs came into the NIT as the top seed in Region 4 after going 13-5 SU in Conference USA this season. They failed to cover in victories against No. 8 Charleston Southern and No. 4 Illinois State, but a buzzer-beater against No. 3 Murray State propelled them into this round after pulling-out a thrilling 72-69 victory as 1 ½-point favorites. ODU is now 9-1 SU in its last 10 games while going 7-3 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of its last 13 games.


Junior guard Trey Freeman hit the game winner against Murray State as part of his game-high 25 points on the night. He has been the Monarchs leading scorer this season with 17.5 PPG. ODU is averaging 65.4 PPG and at the other end of the court it is holding its opponents to 56.8 points a game.


Betting Trends:


-- The Cardinal are 6-1 ATS in their last seven nonconference games, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five games played at a neutral site. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games following a SU win.


-- The Monarchs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 out of conference games and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in their last five neutral-site games.


-- The only time these two teams played one another was all the way back in 2000 with Stanford rolling to an 84-60 victory as a 19-point home favorite.


College Insider Tournament


The first of two matchups in Tuesday’s College Insider Tournament pits the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks against the Evansville Purple Aces as 6 ½-point road underdogs with the total set at 150. The Skyhawks are 21-12 SU this season with a 16-10 record ATS. They have won their last three games both SU and ATS.


The Purple Aces come into this matchup with a SU record of 22-12 while going 17-13-1 ATS. They are 6-4 (SU and ATS) in their last 10 games and 2-1 ATS in this tournament. These two have not faced one another since 2009, but Evansville has a 6-1 SU edge in seven previous meetings and it is 2-1 ATS in the last three games.


The second game on Tuesday’s slate sends the New Jersey Tech Highlanders on the road to face the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks as 4 ½-point underdogs. The total for the game has been set at 144 ½. New Jersey Tech brings a SU six-game winning streak into this contest and it has covered in its first three games of this tournament. The total has gone OVER in those three games.


Northern Arizona (22-14 SU) is 8-2 SU in its last 10 contests and it has covered ATS in four of its last five games as part of an overall record of 17-11-4 ATS. The total has gone OVER in its last two games. This will be the first meeting between these two in recent memory.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- VCU coach Shaka Smart might be the Texas coach by the time you read this; he was talking to Longhorn brass Monday night.

-- Duke is first ACC team in the Final Four since 2010.

-- Atlanta Falcons lose a 5th-round draft pick for piping in fake crowd noise for their games; weird part is the fake noise was from a soccer game.

-- WR Miles Austin signed a 1-year deal with the Eagles.

-- Houston Rockets lose PG Patrick Beverley (wrist) for the season.

-- Kyle Korver scored 11 points in 1:05 last night; shooters are marketable; that is something that will never change.



**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but..........

13) If you're Texas or Alabama and you need a basketball coach, don't you at least have to give Mike Brey a call and see if he'd like to make $3M a year?

12) Fordham hired a good coach from Eastern Kentucky, but got abused anyway because the guy......is from Eastern Kentucky. Jeff Neubauer was a top assistant for John Beilein, so he's a damn good coach, but the question will be whether he can recruit at the A-14 level. Players win games.

Some people on Twitter were actually questioning whether Fordham was a better job than Eastern Kentucky; EKU made the NCAAs last season.

11) Chris Mullin said yes to St John's, so the big question becomes who will he hire as assistant coach/recruiters? Mullin has never coached, so he'll need an experienced tactician and a couple sharp recruiters.

10) Georgia State's RJ Hunter will skip his senior year, enter the NBA Draft, leaving his dad/coach behind after a memorable season.

9) Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin was medically cleared to resume coaching duties, after sitting out most of this season with a non-life-threatening heart ailment, so thats good news for Cronin and the Bearcats.

8) Not sure why the Indianapolis Colts are letting coach Chuck Pagano enter the 2015 season as a lame duck coach, but it looks like they are.

7) Arena Football games are being shown on CBS Sports Network; great shots during replay reviews, with referee miked and you can see what he's looking at as he reviews the call.

6) NFL suspended Cleveland GM Ray Farmer for four games for texting the Browns' bench during games. This is a classic case of having too damn many rules, much like the deflated balls thing. Let teams do what they want and you'll have less drama. Who cares if the GM drives the coach nuts during games?

5) MLB Network is tremendous in March; 3-4 games on TV every day, either live or taped. Lets you get a feel for all the teams.

4) I'm not a big fan of teams batting the pitcher 8th; don't understand why it is done, other than Tony Larussa used to do it so people assume it is smart. How would you like to explain to a 9th-place hitter why he bats behind the pitcher?

3) Knicks fired their D-League coach with four games left in season, which seems unfair, seeing as the Knicks' D-League team plays in Madison Square Garden, disguised as the Knicks.

2) Eldrick Woods is now ranked #104 in the world and sinking; it is the first time since 1996 he is outside the top 100.

1) You learn about baseball teams when you watch other team's broadcast; the home side rarely gives the down side of their club- they're usually pretty eager to talk honestly about the other team.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 31

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (24 - 12) vs. TEMPLE (26 - 10) - 3/31/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 126-85 ATS (+32.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
MIAMI is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 75-51 ATS (+18.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
TEMPLE is 36-59 ATS (-28.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STANFORD (22 - 13) vs. OLD DOMINION (27 - 7) - 3/31/2015, 9:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OLD DOMINION is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
OLD DOMINION is 120-161 ATS (-57.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENN-MARTIN (21 - 12) at EVANSVILLE (22 - 12) - 3/31/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENN-MARTIN is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
TENN-MARTIN is 68-97 ATS (-38.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
EVANSVILLE is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1997.
EVANSVILLE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
EVANSVILLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
EVANSVILLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
TENN-MARTIN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games this season.
TENN-MARTIN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road lined games this season.
TENN-MARTIN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW JERSEY TECH (21 - 11) at N ARIZONA (22 - 14) - 3/31/2015, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ARIZONA is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
N ARIZONA is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
N ARIZONA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW JERSEY TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
NEW JERSEY TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW JERSEY TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
NEW JERSEY TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 31

NIT games
Miami won six of its last seven games, losing to Notre Dame by 7 in ACC tournament; they won first three NIT games by total of 13 points, winning last game at Richmond; Hurricanes won 13 of 16 non-ACC games. Temple won seven of last eight games, losing to SMU in AAC tourney; Owls scored 80 ppg in winning three NIT games by 6-13-17 points; they lost by 20 to Duke in only ACC tilt. ACC teams are 11-11 vs spread this postseason, 5-2 as underdogs. AAC teams are 3-5 vs spread, 1-5 as a favorite.

Long trip east for Stanford, which lost six of last seven games away from home, but won first three NIT games at home by 13-9-3 points. Cardinal was in NYC in November, splitting pair of games in Brooklyn. Stanford is an experienced team that shoots ball but they lost four of last five prior to NIT. Old Dominion could have crowd edge, being in Virginia and this is probably bigger deal for them; Monarchs are 14-1 out of C-USA; they beat LSU and VCU, but haven't been away from home since Feb 28- they won NIT games by 9-1-3, all at home. Pac-12 teams are 9-7 vs spread in postseason, 5-5 as favorites; C-USA teams are 5-6, 3-3 as underdogs.

CBI games (best-of-3 series, 0-0)

CIT tournament
Tenn-Martin won its first three tourney games, all on road, by 25-1-11 points; Skyhawks lost by 10 at Illinois State its only games vs MVC opponent. UTM doesn't sub much; they're experienced team in Schroyer's first year as coach. Evansville scored 84.7 ppg in its first three CIT games, winning last two on road; Aces won two of three vs OVC teams, winning by 15 at Eastern Illinois 8 days ago after splitting pair with Belmont/Murray in December. MVC teams are 6-5 vs spread this postseason; OVC underdogs are 5-2.

Northern Arizona won 14 of last 17 games, winning three games in this tourney by total of 11 points, with two road wins; NAU won its last eight home games- last home loss was Jan 15. NJIT doesn't play in a league; this is its first road game since Jan 25 and its long road trip at that- they won last four D-1 games, scoring 82.7 ppg in three games in this tournament. NJIT won at Michigan, so they're not chumps, but their schedule is unusual. People were NYC were little annoyed that Engles wasn't interviewed for Fordham job.




NCAAB

Tuesday, March 31

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
TENNESSEE-MARTIN vs. EVANSVILLE
Tennessee-Martin is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee-Martin is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Evansville
Evansville is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee-Martin
Evansville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee-Martin

7:00 PM
MIAMI vs. TEMPLE
No trends available
Temple is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

9:00 PM
NJIT vs. NORTHERN ARIZONA
No trends available
Northern Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Arizona's last 6 games at home

9:25 PM
STANFORD vs. OLD DOMINION
No trends available
Old Dominion is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Old Dominion's last 6 games

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Tuesday, March 31


Miami (Fla.) vs Temple

Game 769-770
March 31, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami (Fla.)
63.848
Temple
60.456
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami (Fla.)
by 3 1/2
135
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Temple
by 1 1/2
139 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami (Fla.)
(+1 1/2); Under

Stanford vs Old Dominion

Game 771-772
March 31, 2015 @ 9:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Stanford
62.786
Old Dominion
61.703
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Stanford
by 1
131
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Stanford
by 2 1/2
135
Dunkel Pick:
Old Dominion
(+2 1/2); Under

UT Martin vs Evansville

Game 773-774
March 31, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UT Martin
51.768
Evansville
61.154
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Evansville
by 9 1/2
155
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Evansville
by 6 1/2
149 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Evansville
(-6 1/2); Over

New Jersey Tech vs Northern Arizona

Game 775-776
March 31, 2015 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Jersey Tech
53.147
Northern Arizona
59.576
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Northern Arizona
by 6 1/2
148
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Arizona
by 4 1/2
144
Dunkel Pick:
Northern Arizona
(-4 1/2); Over

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday's Top Action


March 31, 2015




MIAMI HURRICANES (24-12) vs. TEMPLE OWLS (26-10)


Madison Square Garden – New York, NY
NIT – Semifinals
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Temple -1.5, Total 140


Miami and Temple will battle at Madison Square Garden Tuesday for a spot in the NIT Championship.


Miami faced Richmond last round and won 63-61 as a 3-point road underdog. The Hurricanes have won three straight games SU and have covered in their past two as well. This team has played excellent defensively over the past two games, allowing just 63.5 PPG. It will need to lock in defensively on Tuesday.


Temple, meanwhile, defeated Louisiana Tech 77-59 as a 4-point home favorite last round. The Owls have also won three straight games SU and have covered in their past two. This team has been on a tear offensively, averaging 80.0 PPG over the course of the tournament. It will need to find a way to score against a Miami defense that has been stellar.


These teams have met just twice since 1997 and have split wins both SU and ATS. Miami is 126-85 ATS when playing as a road underdog since 1997. Temple, however, is 10-3 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season.


Temple comes into this game healthy, but G Angel Rodriguez (Wrist) is questionable for the Hurricanes.


Miami has been a very good defensive team all season, allowing just 63.4 PPG (87th in NCAA). It hasn’t been as good offensively though, as the Hurricanes are scoring just 68.4 PPG (149th in NCAA) on 43.4% shooting (187th in NCAA).


G Angel Rodriguez (11.9 PPG, 3.9 APG, 1.8 SPG) is questionable for this game. He is the leader of this Miami team and can score in a number of ways or find his teammates for open looks. If he is unable to play then it’d be extremely tough for them to advance.


G Sheldon McClellan (14.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.0 APG) is going to really need to be on his game if Rodriguez is either off the court or not playing to his best ability. McClellan had 16 points and six boards in 34 minutes against Richmond last game, but just two points in 27 minutes against Alabama in the second round of the tournament. The better McClellan will need to show up in this game or the Hurricanes will not be advancing to the finals.


C Tonye Jekiri (8.7 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 1.4 BPG) has done his part for Miami in the tournament. He’s averaging 8.5 PPG and 11.0 RPG over the past two games and will need to continue to rebound the ball effectively moving forward. Jekiri is also a good shot-blocker but he has blocked only three shots in his past four games. He’ll need to do better in that department on Tuesday.


Like Miami, the Owls struggle on offense but know how to lock their opponents down on defense. Temple is averaging just 64.8 PPG (238th in NCAA) on 38.4% shooting (341st in NCAA) but allowing just 61.2 PPG (45th in NCAA).


G Will Cummings (14.9 PPG, 4.2 APG, 4.1 RPG, 1.9 SPG) is this team’s most reliable scorer. Cummings relentlessly attacks the rim and is averaging 22.0 PPG in the NIT so far. He has gotten hot from the outside in this tournament as well; going 7-for-12 from three over the past three games. If he is knocking down his outside shots then it’ll be tough for Miami to beat Temple on Tuesday.


G Quenton DeCosey (12.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.2 APG) was unbelievable in the win over Louisiana Tech last game, finishing with 21 points and 11 rebounds in 33 minutes of action. He’ll see a lot of time matched up with McClellan in this game and must hold his own in that matchup.


G Jesse Morgan (12.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is another talented scorer in this backcourt and is averaging 18.5 PPG and 4.5 RPG in 23.5 MPG over the past two contests. He is a solid outside shooter (36% 3PT) and will need to get hot in order to help his team score on the tough Miami defense Tuesday.


F Jaylen Bond (7.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.4 SPG) will be crucial in this game for Temple. He is one of the few players on this team that likes to get physical inside and he must rebound the ball well Tuesday. He had just three rebounds against Louisiana Tech after grabbing 15 against George Washington in the second round.

 

[CNOTES]

NIT Semifinals Tips


March 30, 2015


This year’s NCAA Tournament starts back up this Saturday with the Final Four, but college hoops bettors will have plenty of action to keep them busy this Tuesday night with a pair of matchups in both the semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament and the College Insider Tournament.


NIT Semifinal - No. 2 Miami (FL) vs. No. 1 Temple (ESPN, 7 p.m.)
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Location: New York City, NY
Betting Odds: Temple -1 ½, Total 141


The Miami Hurricanes made their way to the NIT semifinals as the No. 2 seed in Region 2. After failing to cover against the spread in an opening round 75-71 victory against No. 7 North Carolina Central as 8 ½-point favorites, the Hurricanes went on to knockoff No. 6 Alabama 73-66 as 4 ½-point favorites and No. 1 Richmond 63-61 as 2 ½-point underdogs. Miami is now 7-2 straight-up in its last nine games while going 4-5 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in three of its last five games.


The Hurricanes were dealt a blow when their second-leading scorer Angel Rodriguez was lost to a wrist injury, but both Manu Lecomte and JaQuan Newton are listed as probable for Tuesday night. Junior guard Sheldon McClellan has led the way all season with 14.4 points per game and he had the hot hand in last Tuesday’s victory against Richmond with 16 points while going 6-for 13 from the field.


Temple’s run through Region 1 on the NIT as the top seed included victories against No. 8 Bucknell and No. 5 George Washington, but its best effort came in last Wednesday’s 77-59 win against No. 3 Louisiana Tech as a four-point favorite. The Owls are now 7-1 SU in their last eight games with a 5-3 record ATS. The total stayed UNDER the closing 146 ½-point line in last Wednesday’s win after it had gone OVER in four of their previous six games.


Three of five Temple starters scored in double figures against Louisiana Tech led by junior guard Quenton DeCosey’s game-high 21 points. He also pulled down 11 of the Owls 39 rebounds to help pace the win. Temple is shooting just 38.4 percent from the field this season, but in that game it made good on 49. 1 percent of its 55 shots.


Betting Trends:


-- The Hurricanes are 7-4 ATS this season in 11 previous games as underdogs, but they are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games following a SU win.


-- The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games outside the their conference and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight games against a team from the ACC.


-- These two last met in the 2005/2006 regular season with Temple coming away with a 73-56 victory as a 3 ½-point home favorite.


NIT Semifinal - No. 2 Stanford vs. No. 1 Old Dominion (ESPN, 9 p.m.)
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Location: New York City, NY
Betting Odds: Stanford -2 ½, Total 138


Stanford came into this year’s NIT as the No. 2 seed in Region 3. It started things off with a 77-64 victory over No. 7 UC Davis while covering as an 8 ½-point favorite. The Cardinal also covered as five-point favorites in a 74-65 win against No. 3 Rhode Island, but they came up short as 4 ½-point favorites in last Tuesday’s 78-75 victory against No. 5 Vanderbilt. Before this tournament, Stanford was just 1-4 SU in its previous five contests while failing to cover in all five games.


The duo of senior guards Chasson Randle and Anthony Brown have done much of the damage for Stanford in this tournament. Randle leads the team in scoring with 19.3 PPG, but he has averaged 23 points in his last three games. Brown is second on the team with 15 PPG and he led the way against Vanderbilt with 26 points. On the injury front, both Grant Verhoeven and Michael Humphrey remain questionable for Tuesday night after missing their last several games.


The Monarchs came into the NIT as the top seed in Region 4 after going 13-5 SU in Conference USA this season. They failed to cover in victories against No. 8 Charleston Southern and No. 4 Illinois State, but a buzzer-beater against No. 3 Murray State propelled them into this round after pulling-out a thrilling 72-69 victory as 1 ½-point favorites. ODU is now 9-1 SU in its last 10 games while going 7-3 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of its last 13 games.


Junior guard Trey Freeman hit the game winner against Murray State as part of his game-high 25 points on the night. He has been the Monarchs leading scorer this season with 17.5 PPG. ODU is averaging 65.4 PPG and at the other end of the court it is holding its opponents to 56.8 points a game.


Betting Trends:


-- The Cardinal are 6-1 ATS in their last seven nonconference games, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five games played at a neutral site. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games following a SU win.


-- The Monarchs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 out of conference games and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in their last five neutral-site games.


-- The only time these two teams played one another was all the way back in 2000 with Stanford rolling to an 84-60 victory as a 19-point home favorite.


College Insider Tournament


The first of two matchups in Tuesday’s College Insider Tournament pits the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks against the Evansville Purple Aces as 6 ½-point road underdogs with the total set at 150. The Skyhawks are 21-12 SU this season with a 16-10 record ATS. They have won their last three games both SU and ATS.


The Purple Aces come into this matchup with a SU record of 22-12 while going 17-13-1 ATS. They are 6-4 (SU and ATS) in their last 10 games and 2-1 ATS in this tournament. These two have not faced one another since 2009, but Evansville has a 6-1 SU edge in seven previous meetings and it is 2-1 ATS in the last three games.


The second game on Tuesday’s slate sends the New Jersey Tech Highlanders on the road to face the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks as 4 ½-point underdogs. The total for the game has been set at 144 ½. New Jersey Tech brings a SU six-game winning streak into this contest and it has covered in its first three games of this tournament. The total has gone OVER in those three games.


Northern Arizona (22-14 SU) is 8-2 SU in its last 10 contests and it has covered ATS in four of its last five games as part of an overall record of 17-11-4 ATS. The total has gone OVER in its last two games. This will be the first meeting between these two in recent memory.