CNOTES 2023-2024 NBA TRENDS, NEWS, BEST BETS AND OPINIONS THRU THE PLAYOFFS !

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Saturday’s 6-pack:
— McNeese State 87, Michigan 76- Southland Conference Cowboys are now 11-2.
— San Diego State 84, Gonzaga 74- Impressive road win for the Aztecs.
— Magic 117, Knicks 108- Much-improved Orlando is 19-12 this year.
— Kings 117, Hawks 110- Sacramento outscored Atlanta 31-19 in 4th quarter.
— Bucks 119, Cavaliers 111- Cleveland shot 6-43 on the arc.
— 76ers 131, Rockets 127- Philly outscored Houston 41-30 in 4th quarter.

Quote of the Day
“They definitely told me I was going to be benched and all that. That whole bye week I didn’t know what was going to be the case. I was going to be ready to play, I wanted to go to Buffalo and beat Buffalo [Nov. 13]. … I wasn’t going to remove the injury guarantee, this game is such a physical game, I’ve played 12 years and all that.”
Broncos’ QB Russell Wilson, who might be an ex-Bronco fairly soon

Saturday’s quiz
Which college football team won the first three Fiesta Bowls (1971-73)?

Friday’s quiz
Jan Stenerud was the first kicking specialist inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Thursday’s quiz
Weeb Ewbank coached the Jets when they won their only Super Bowl, 16-7 against the Colts in Super Bowl III.

******************************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy couple of days

Browns 37, Jets 20
Browns’ first two drives were both 7 plays, 75 yards and a TD.
Cleveland led 34-17 at halftime.
Flacco threw for 309 yards and three more TD’s.
Cleveland won/covered its last four games, winning by 4-3-14-17 points.
Browns averaged 10 yards per pass attempt.
Each team scored on a pick-6 in first half.
Under Saleh, Jets are 5-11 ATS in games coming off a win.
This season, Jets are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog.

— Cleveland’s win clinches that they’ll finish ahead of the Steelers this season, the first time they’ve done that since 1989. Browns also clinched a playoff spot Thursday, the third time they’ve made the playoffs since re-booting in 1999.
The fact that Cleveland’s season has been saved by QB Joe Flacco coming out of nowhere is one of the NFL’s best stories this season. Flacco has thrown for 1,616 yards and 13 TD’s and will lead the Browns into the playoffs. Pretty unlikely.

— When the Saints play at Tampa Bay Sunday, it’ll be their first game outdoors since Week 5 at New England. New Orleans is 2-1 outdoors this season.

— Texans rookie QB CJ Stroud is going to start Sunday against Tennessee; Stroud missed the last two games with concussion problems.
Vikings are switching QB’s again; rookie Jaren Hall will get his second start when Minnesota hosts Green Bay Sunday night. Hall started a game in Atlanta in Week 9, but got KO’d in the first quarter with a concussion.
Jaguars will start backup CJ Beathard at QB this week; Trevor Lawrence has several injuries, so Jacksonville is sitting him out. Beathard is 2-10 as an NFL starter; his last start was in 2020.

— ESPN’s play-by-play guy on the Pop Tarts Bowl Thursday admitted on air that he had never had a Pop Tart in his life, so he had his first one on camera- got to keep the sponsors happy.
I’m oblivious about certain things, having forgotten that Pop Tarts can be toasted; I’ve had more than my share of Pop Tarts, but never had one toasted.

— OF Kevin Kiermaier re-upped with the Toronto Blue Jays, getting $10.5M for one year; he hit .265 last year, with a .741 OPS, his best OPS since 2017. His biggest strength is his defense.

— P Lucas Giolito signed on with the Red Sox, for two years, $38.5M; last year, he was 8-15, 4.88 in 33 starts for three different teams, but he was 2-9, 6.96 in 12 starts after the White Sox traded him.
In 2021-22, Giolito was 22-18, 4.18 in 62 starts for Chicago.

— Word of the Day: Analytics- Information resulting from the systematic analysis of data or statistics.

— Boston College 23, SMU 14
Hometown Eagles outscored SMU 13-0 in second half.
Boston College blocked a punt and a field goal.
Eagles ran the ball 41 times for 262 yards.

— Rutgers 31, Miami 24
Rutgers took lead for good with a blocked punt TD in 3rd quarter.
I’m sure the boosters at Miami will be thrilled with their 7-6 season.
Hurricanes have now lost five now games in a row.

— Kansas State 28, NC State 19
Freshman QB Johnson threw for 178 yards, two TD’s.
RB Giddens ran ball 28 times for 152 yards and a TD.
Favorites covered Pop Tarts Bowl seven of last eight years.

— Arizona 38, Oklahoma 24
Oklahoma turned ball over six times on 15 drives.
Arizona’s first four drives: 28 plays, 182 yards, 13 points.
Arizona’s freshman QB Fifita threw for 354 yards, two TD’s.

— Clemson 38, Kentucky 35
Clemson drove 63 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:17 left.
Kentucky led 21-10 after the third quarter.
Clemson won its last five games, after a 4-4 start.

— Notre Dame 40, Oregon State 8
Neither starting QB played in this game.
Notre Dame outgained the Beavers, 476-197
Notre Dame was 9-14 on third down, Oregon State 1-9

— Memphis 36, Iowa State 26
Memphis had TD plays of 51-70-11 yards in first quarter, led 19-0.
Memphis QB Henigan threw for 364 yards, four TD’s.
Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in last eight Liberty Bowls.

— Missouri 14, Ohio State 3
Buckeyes led 3-0 at halftime.
Mizzou outgained the Buckeyes, 331-203.
Missouri’s two TD drives were 95, 91 yards.

— Celtics 128, Pistons 122, OT
Detroit led by 19 at the half; game was tied after three quarters.
Pistons have now lost 28 games in a row.
Detroit starters were a combined +9, their subs minus-39.
 

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UTAH is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after 2+ road games in the current season.

TORONTO is 10-1 Over (8.9 Units) as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NEW YORK is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

Nick Nurse is 22-9 ATS (12.1 Units) in the first half of the season (Coach of PHILADELPHIA)

LA LAKERS are 9-1 Over (7.9 Units) after a non-conference game in the current season.

Steve Kerr is 131-99 ATS (22.1 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders (Coach of GOLDEN STATE)




NBA

Saturday, December 30


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Trend Report
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Miami @ Utah
Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Utah
Utah
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Miami
Utah is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Toronto @ Detroit
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games

New York @ Indiana
New York
New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games
Indiana is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against New York

Philadelphia @ Chicago
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home

LA Lakers @ Minnesota
LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 5 games
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against LA Lakers

Dallas @ Golden State
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Golden State
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Golden State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home


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NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, December 30


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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 30

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
MIA at UTA05:00 PMUTA +2.5
O 230.0
+500 +500
TOR at DET06:00 PMDET +3.5
O 230.0
+500 +500
NY at IND07:00 PMNY +4.5
U 247.5
+500 +500
LAL at MIN08:00 PMMIN -5.0
O 225.5
+500 +500
PHI at CHI08:00 PMPHI +2.5
U 224.0
+500 +500
DAL at GS08:30 PMGS -4.5
O 242.0
+500 +500
 

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Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks
DateW-L-T%UnitsRecord
12/30/20235-7-041.67%-1350Detail
12/29/202313-7-065.00%+2650Detail
12/28/20236-10-037.50%-2500Detail
12/27/20235-7-041.67%-1350Detail
12/26/202310-8-055.56%+600Detail
12/25/20235-5-050.00%-250Detail
12/23/202315-11-057.69%+1450Detail
12/22/20235-6-145.83%-800Detail
12/21/20235-11-031.25%-3550Detail
12/20/202311-7-061.11%+1650Detail
12/19/20234-4-050.00%-200Detail
12/18/202312-10-054.55%+500Detail
12/17/20234-6-040.00%-1300Detail
12/16/202311-9-055.00%+550Detail
12/15/20238-7-153.13%+150Detail
12/14/20236-7-146.43%-850Detail
12/13/202310-8-055.56%+600Detail
12/12/20235-5-050.00%-250Detail
12/11/202310-16-038.46%-3800Detail
12/09/20230-2-00.00%-1100Detail
12/08/202312-12-050.00%-600Detail
12/07/20231-3-025.00%-1150Detail
12/06/202312-10-054.55%+500Detail
12/05/20233-1-075.00%+950Detail
12/04/20233-1-075.00%+950Detail
12/02/202310-12-245.83%-1600Detail
12/01/20239-3-075.00%+2850Detail
 

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DECEMBER'S NBA BEST BETS !

12/302023..........................4 - 7...........................36.36%....................- 18.50
12/29/2023........................9 - 4...........................69.23%....................+ 23.00
12/28/2023........................5 - 7...........................41.55........................- 13.50
12/27/2023........................5 - 5...........................50.00%.....................- 2.50
12/26/2023.........................8 - 4..........................66.66%.....................+ 18.00
12/25/2023.........................4 - 5.........................44.44%......................- 7.50
12/23/2023.......................12 - 8........................60.00%.......................+ 16.00
12/21/2023........................3 - 10........................23.07%......................- 40.00
12/20/2023........................9 - 5............................64.28%.....................+ 17.50
12/19/2023........................4 - 4............................50.00%.....................- 2.00
12/18/2023........................7 - 10..........................41.17%.....................- 20.00
12/17/2023........................4 - 6............................40.00%......................- 13.00
12/16/2023........................7 - 6............................53.84%.......................+ 2.00
12/15/2023........................6 - 6............................50.00%.......................- 3.00
12/14/2023........................3 - 7............................30.00%........................- 23.50
12/13/2023........................6 - 8............................42.85%........................- 14.00
12/12/2023........................5 - 3............................62.50%........................+ 8.50
12/11/2023.....................10 - 11...........................47.61%........................- 10.50
12/09/2023..........................0 - 2...........................00.00%........................- 11.00
12/08/2023..........................8 - 9...........................42.85%.......................- 14.00
12/07/2023..........................1 - 3..........................25.00%.........................- 11.50
12/06/2023........................10 - 5.........................66.00%.........................+ 22.50
12/05/2023..........................3 - 1.........................75.00%.........................+ 9.50
12/04/2023..........................3 - 1.........................75.00%.........................+ 9.50
12/02/2023..........................4 - 5.........................44.44%.........................- 7.50
12/01/2023..........................3 - 3.........................50.00%.........................- 1.50

TOTALS............................133 - 140.........................48.71%..........................- 87.00
 

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Sunday’s 6-pack:
— Pacers 140, Knicks 126- Haliburton had 22 points, 23 assists.
— Timberwolves 108, Lakers 106- Minnesota is 14-1 at home this season.
— Jazz 117, Heat 109- Olynyk had 19 points, 10 assists off the bench.
— Mavericks 132, Warriors 122- Doncic had 39 points, 10 assists.
— Red Sox traded P Chris Sale to Atlanta for 2B Vaughn Grissom.
— Reds signed P Frankie Montas for one year, $16M.

Quote of the Day
“People need to see what happened tonight, and they need to fix this. It needs to be fixed. It’s very unfortunate that they (Florida State) have a good football team and a good football program, and they’re in the position they’re in.”
Georgia coach Kirby Smart

Sunday’s quiz
Who played QB for the Cleveland Browns in their last playoff game?

Saturday’s quiz
Arizona State won the first three Fiesta Bowls (1971-73).

Friday’s quiz
Jan Stenerud was the first kicking specialist inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

*******************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up the last Saturday of the year

Cowboys 20, Lions 19
Detroit scored TD with 0:23 left, went for two points but failed.
Lions in first half: 35 plays, 168 yards, 3 points.
Lions in second half: 34 plays, 232 yards, 16 points.
Under Campbell, Lions are 34-15-1 ATS overall.
Prescott threw a 92-yard TD pass on the Cowboys’ second series.
Dallas was 7-14 on third down, Detroit 4-13.
CeeDee Lamb caught 13 passes for 227 yards and a TD.
Cowboys only ran the ball 21 times for 60 yards.

— Cowboys inducted Jimmy Johnson into their Ring of Honor at halftime and ESPN showed the whole thing. Not really sure why, they never show other ceremonies.

— Ole Miss 38, Penn State 25
Ole Miss QB Dart threw for 379 yards, three TD’s.
Both teams had 500+ yards of total offense.
Rebels outscored Penn State 11-0 in third quarter.

— Maryland 31, Auburn 13
Terrapins led 21-0 after the first quarter.
Maryland’s first three drives: 19 plays, 226 yards, 21 points.
Maryland won its third straight bowl game.

— Wyoming 16, Toledo 15
Wyoming kicked a 24-yard FG at the gun for the win.
Toledo led 15-6 after the third quarter.
Last game for Cowboys’ coach Bohl, retiring after 42 years as a coach.
Wyoming has won four of its last five bowl games.

— Georgia 63, Florida State 3
College football has a problem; they need concrete rules for who makes the playoff.
At least 12 Florida State players opted out of this game; who would watch it?

— Five of the ten college football leagues have finished their bowl games:
AAC- 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
ACC- 5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS
MAC- 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS
Mountain West- 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS
Sun Belt- 5-7 SU, 4-7-1 ATS

— Word of the Day: Reckless- without thinking or caring about the consequences of an action.
Going for a 2-point conversion from the 8-yard line when a kicked PAT would tie the game is an example of reckless coaching.

— Marquette 72, Creighton 67
Bluejays led by 11 early in game.
Marquette won despite going 9-31 on the arc.

— Michigan State 87, Indiana State 75- This is the first time these teams met since 1979, when Magic Johnson/Larry Bird shared the spotlight. Sycamores led this game by 5 with 10:38 left to play, but got outscored 26-11 over the final 10:00.

— Oregon 64, UCLA 59
UCLA is 6-7; their 7-man rotation doesn’t have a senior in it.
Oregon is 10-3, 2-0 in Pac-12; they shot 10-25 on the arc.

— Cal-Northridge 84, Long Beach State 68
Matadors are 11-3, with this win and a win at UCLA.
Last winning season for Northridge was a 17-14 season in 2009.
Long Beach was minus-10 on boards; they shot 2-22 on the arc.

— South Alabama 61, Old Dominion 59
Old Dominion led 49-27 with 14:08 left in game.

— Florida Gulf Coast 72, Florida Atlantic 68
This loss won’t help FAU’s at-large chances in March.

— Pistons 129, Raptors 127
Pistons snap their 28-game losing streak.
Cade Cunningham scored 30 points, had 12 assists.

— Thought of the Day: Just before midnight tonight, stand up and raise your left leg; that way, you’ll be sure to start off 2024 on the right foot.
Happy New Year, everyone.
 

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ATLANTA is 35-66 ATS (-37.6 Units) in the first half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

UTAH is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-2 Over (12.8 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=13 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

NEW ORLEANS are 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) in home games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

BOSTON is 69-44 ATS (20.6 Units) after playing a home game in the last 3 seasons.

PHOENIX is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in December games in the last 3 seasons.

MEMPHIS are 32-13 Over (17.7 Units) after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 20 or more since 1996.
 

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NBA

Sunday, December 31


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Atlanta @ Washington
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 18 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Boston @ San Antonio
Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games at home
San Antonio is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Boston

Brooklyn @ Oklahoma City
Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games
Brooklyn is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oklahoma City's last 9 games at home
Oklahoma City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

LA Lakers @ New Orleans
LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 10 of LA Lakers's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
New Orleans is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games at home

Sacramento @ Memphis
Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games when playing on the road against Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing Memphis
Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing at home against Sacramento
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Sacramento

Orlando @ Phoenix
Orlando
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Phoenix's last 22 games at home


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C/notes.....thank you for all you do buddy....
you and your family have a great New year......
may it be safe and profitable........indy
 

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SUNDAY, DECEMBER 31

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
ATL at WAS03:00 PMATL -6.5
U 253.5
+500 +500
BK at OKC07:00 PMBK +7.5
O 235.0
+500 +500
BOS at SA07:00 PMSA +14.5
O 241.0
+500 +500
LAL at NO07:00 PMNO -7.0
O 230.5
+500 +500
SAC at MEM08:00 PMMEM -1.0
O 236.5
+500 +500
ORL at PHO08:00 PMORL +6.0
O 232.0
+500 +500
 

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Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks
DateW-L-T%UnitsRecord
12/31/20233-9-025.00%-3450Detail
12/30/20235-7-041.67%-1350Detail
12/29/202313-7-065.00%+2650Detail
12/28/20236-10-037.50%-2500Detail
12/27/20235-7-041.67%-1350Detail
12/26/202310-8-055.56%+600Detail
12/25/20235-5-050.00%-250Detail
12/23/202315-11-057.69%+1450Detail
12/22/20235-6-145.83%-800Detail
12/21/20235-11-031.25%-3550Detail
12/20/202311-7-061.11%+1650Detail
12/19/20234-4-050.00%-200Detail
12/18/202312-10-054.55%+500Detail
12/17/20234-6-040.00%-1300Detail
12/16/202311-9-055.00%+550Detail
12/15/20238-7-153.13%+150Detail
12/14/20236-7-146.43%-850Detail
12/13/202310-8-055.56%+600Detail
12/12/20235-5-050.00%-250Detail
12/11/202310-16-038.46%-3800Detail
12/09/20230-2-00.00%-1100Detail
12/08/202312-12-050.00%-600Detail
12/07/20231-3-025.00%-1150Detail
12/06/202312-10-054.55%+500Detail
12/05/20233-1-075.00%+950Detail
12/04/20233-1-075.00%+950Detail
12/02/202310-12-245.83%-1600Detail
12/01/20239-3-075.00%+2850Detail
 

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DECEMBER'S NBA BEST BETS !

12/31/2023........................4 - 6...........................40.00%.....................- 13.00
12/30/2023..........................4 - 7...........................36.36%....................- 18.50
12/29/2023........................9 - 4...........................69.23%....................+ 23.00
12/28/2023........................5 - 7...........................41.55........................- 13.50
12/27/2023........................5 - 5...........................50.00%.....................- 2.50
12/26/2023.........................8 - 4..........................66.66%.....................+ 18.00
12/25/2023.........................4 - 5.........................44.44%......................- 7.50
12/23/2023.......................12 - 8........................60.00%.......................+ 16.00
12/21/2023........................3 - 10........................23.07%......................- 40.00
12/20/2023........................9 - 5............................64.28%.....................+ 17.50
12/19/2023........................4 - 4............................50.00%.....................- 2.00
12/18/2023........................7 - 10..........................41.17%.....................- 20.00
12/17/2023........................4 - 6............................40.00%......................- 13.00
12/16/2023........................7 - 6............................53.84%.......................+ 2.00
12/15/2023........................6 - 6............................50.00%.......................- 3.00
12/14/2023........................3 - 7............................30.00%........................- 23.50
12/13/2023........................6 - 8............................42.85%........................- 14.00
12/12/2023........................5 - 3............................62.50%........................+ 8.50
12/11/2023.....................10 - 11...........................47.61%........................- 10.50
12/09/2023..........................0 - 2...........................00.00%........................- 11.00
12/08/2023..........................8 - 9...........................42.85%.......................- 14.00
12/07/2023..........................1 - 3..........................25.00%.........................- 11.50
12/06/2023........................10 - 5.........................66.00%.........................+ 22.50
12/05/2023..........................3 - 1.........................75.00%.........................+ 9.50
12/04/2023..........................3 - 1.........................75.00%.........................+ 9.50
12/02/2023..........................4 - 5.........................44.44%.........................- 7.50
12/01/2023..........................3 - 3.........................50.00%.........................- 1.50

TOTALS.........................137 - 146.........................48.40%..........................- 100.00
 

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Monday’s 6-pack:
— Stanford 100, Arizona 82- Cardinal made 16-25 shots on the arc.
— Utah 95, Washington 90- Huskies led 46-35 at halftime.
— Arizona State 71, Cal 69- Sun Devils were down 14 with 8:36 left.
— Oakland 88, Youngstown State 81- Grizzlies shot 13-25 on the arc.
— Milwaukee 91, Wright State 83- Panthers shot 16-30 on the arc.
— Fort Wayne 91, Detroit 56- Woeful Titans are 0-15, with #354 eFG%.

Quote of the Day
“We are never going to take for granted being able to get wins. There were things that we did to try to not win this game today, but our guys found a way. Sometimes you need these types of games. It seemed we were a little off, but they kept staying together.”
Sean McVay, coach of the playoff-bound Rams

Monday’s quiz
Which NFL team did Lane Kiffin used to coach?

Sunday’s quiz
Baker Mayfield played QB for the Cleveland Browns in their last playoff game, in 2020.

Saturday’s quiz
Arizona State won the first three Fiesta Bowls (1971-73).

****************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Saints 23, Buccaneers 13
Saints/Bucs are tied for first in NFC South, with 8-8 records.
New Orleans led 17-0 at halftime.
Saints were 8-18 on third down, Tampa Bay 2-8.
since 2018, New Orleans is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog.
Buccaneers in first half: 18 plays, 45 yards, no points.
Buccaneers in second half: 18 plays, 45 yards, no points.
Tampa Bay turned ball over four times on their 11 drives.
Bucs are 2-7 when they allow more than 18 points.

Cardinals 35, Eagles 31
Eagles’ loss clinches #1 seed in NFC for the 49ers.
Eagles took 14-3 lead on a 99-yard pick-6 by Brown.
Philadelphia led 21-6 at halftime.
Eagles are 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five games.
Cardinals drove 70 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:32 left.
Arizona ran ball for 221 yards, threw it for 228 yards.
Cardinals outgained Philadelphia, 444-275.
Arizona in sec0nd half: 4 drives, 34 plays, 270 yards, 29 points.

Rams 26, Giants 25
Rams are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS last seven games, scoring 31.3 ppg in last six.
Williams ran ball for 87 yards and three TD’s.
Rams converted only 2-8 third down plays.
Rams are 8-3 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
Giants had an 80-yard TD pass, 94-yard punt return for a TD.
Giants failed on 2-point play to take lead with 3:27 left.
Crosby missed 54-yard FG with 0:30 left.
Giants lost last three games, giving up 24-33-26 points.

Ravens 56, Dolphins 19
Ravens won five in row, nine of last ten games.
Baltimore scored 8 touchdowns on 11 drives.
Ravens ran 55 plays, only seven of them on third down.
Last nine games, Baltimore scored 32 TD’s on 92 drives.
Dolphins-Bills play next week for AFC East title.
Miami is 1-4 SU vs teams that have a winning record.
Baltimore averaged 14.4 yards/pass attempt.
Ravens scored a TD on five of first six drives.

Bills 27, Patriots 21
Patriots ran opening kick back 98 yards for a TD.
In first half, Patriots turned ball over four times on six drives.
Five of NE’s last six losses were by six or fewer points.
New England is minus-10 in turnovers this year (+38 from 2019-22).
Bills took 20-7 lead on 40-yard pick-6 by Douglas.
Buffalo visits Miami next week, playing for AFC East crown.
Bills are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in last six games.
Buffalo scored 28.0 ppg in six games since firing their OC.

Bears 37, Falcons 17
Chicago won/covered five of last seven games.
Bears’ first four drives: 30 plays, 214 yards, 21 points.
Last two games, Bears ran ball for 250-192 yards.
Chicago outgained the Falcons, 432-307.
Falcons threw four INT’s, missed two field goals.
Atlanta is 7-15-2 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Falcons are 3-10-1 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Atlanta completed only 13 of their 33 passes (4.9 yards/attempt).

Colts 23, Raiders 20
WR Adams caught 13 passes for 126 yards and two TD’s.
Adams went over 1,000 receiving yards for fourth year in a row.
Raiders are 5-2-1 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less.
With the loss, Las Vegas is eliminated from the playoff race.
Colts are 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS in last eight games.
Colts are 0-7 giving up 29+ points, 9-0 allowing 28 or fewer points.
Colts averaged 9.0 yards/pass attempt.
RB Taylor ran ball 21 times for 96 yards and a TD.

49ers 27, Commanders 10
SF is 7-1 since its bye week (5-3 ATS), scoring 31.6 ppg.
With Eagles’ loss, 49ers clinched #1 seed in NFC.
49ers scored 27+ points in wins, 17-17-17-19 in losses.
SF is 6-2-1 ATS as a road favorite this season.
49ers outscored Washington 14-0 in second half.
Washington lost seven in row, 12 of last 14 games (3-7 ATS last ten)
Last eight games, Commanders are minus-9 in turnovers (5-14).
Washington is 11-17 ATS last 28 games coming off a loss.

Jaguars 26, Panthers 0
Of 16 AFC QB’s who started in Week 1, only five of them started this week.
Jaguars are in a 3-way tie atop AFC South, with one week left.
Carolina’s loss clinches #1 pick in 2024 Draft for the Bears.
Carolina was 2-7 ATS as a road underdog this year.
On its first series, Carolina was stopped on downs at Jaguars’ 31.
Panthers went 3/out on their next six drives.
Jaguars kicked FGs on 3 of first 4 drives, led 9-0 at halftime.
Carolina was outgained 317-124; they were 1-13 on third down.

Texans 26, Titans 3
Two teams combined to convert only 4 of 23 third down plays.
Houston outgained the Titans, 312-187.
Titans lost seven of their last nine games.
Tennessee is 1-10 this year when they score 17 or fewer points.
Texans took 17-0 lead on sack/fumble/TD in second quarter.
Last six games, Texans are +6 in turnovers (9-3).
Houston is 5-2 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Houston visits Indianapolis next week; they’re in 3-way tie atop AFC South.

Steelers 30, Seahawks 24
Steelers ran ball for 202 yards, averaged 10.6 yards/pass attempt.
Last two weeks, with Rudolph at QB, Pittsburgh scored 34-30 points.
Steelers are 15-10 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog
QB Rudolph is now 7-4-1 as an NFL starter.
Steelers were 6-13 on third down, Seattle 3-9.
Loss eliminates Seattle from the playoff race.
Seahawks are 6-0 if they run for 100+ yards, 2-8 if they don’t.
Seahawks are 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite.

Broncos 16, Chargers 9
Chargers lost seven of their last eight games.
Chargers were 2-11 on 3rd down, Denver 7-17
Bolts are 1-6 ATS in last seven games as an underdog.
Under is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Charger games.
Denver swept the Chargers this year, 24-7/16-9.
Chargers are 0-4-1 ATS in last five visits to Denver.
Eight of last eleven Bronco games stayed under the total.
QB Stidham was 20-32/224 passing in his first Denver start.

Chiefs 25, Bengals 17
Chiefs outscored Cincinnati 12-0 in second half.
KC only scored one TD; Butker kicked six field goals.
Under is 8-3-1 in Kansas City’s last dozen games.
Chiefs held 11 of last 13 foes under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
Bengals’ first three drives: 34 plays, 158 yards, 17 points.
Bengals rest of game: 38 plays, 124 yards, no points.
Cincinnati was 8-16 on third down, Chiefs 3-12.
Bengals are 6-1 giving up 20 or less points, 2-7 allowing more than 2o.

Packers
33, Vikings 10
Green Bay outgained the Vikings, 470-211.
Green Bay was 9-14 on third down, Minnesota 3-10
Last six games, Packers are +6 in turnovers (9-3)
Packers are 14-7 ATS last 21 games as a road underdog
Green Bay makes the playoffs if they beat Chicago next week.
Vikings lost five of their last six games (the win was 3-0).
Vikings are 4-8 ATS in last dozen NFC North home games.
Minnesota lost seven of last ten games against the Packers.
 

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NEW YORK is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

J.B. Bickerstaff is 20-45 ATS (-29.5 Units) in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread (All games)

HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games in the current season.

INDIANA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season in the current season.

PORTLAND is 9-0 Under (9 Units) in road games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

DENVER is 120-76 Over (36.4 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1996.

DALLAS are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games as a favorite in the current season.

LA CLIPPERS are 15-4 Over (10.6 Units) off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
 

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