Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 5
October 6, 2017


The ‘over’ went 9-7 last week and once again, we congratulate bettors on the ‘over’ in last Monday’s result between the Chiefs and Redskins and apologize to those who took the ‘under.’ VI expert Joe Nelson recaps all the ‘Close Calls’ each week and he gave that outcome extra attention.


If you wager on sports, you need to accept the ‘bad beats’ and understand they’re part of the business and will never go away. While that MNF result was definitely a punch in the stomach to bettors on the ‘under’ or the Skins, I still put the Duke (+9) loss in the 2012 Belk Bowl up there with the worst of them. It is kind of funny how we always remember the losers!


Through the first quarter of the season, my tally has the ‘over/under’ sitting at 31-31-1 based on our closing numbers.


Quick Observations


-- We’ve seen six totals close in the thirties this season and the ‘over’ has gone 4-2 (67%) in those contests. For Week 5, we have three matchups on Sunday listed just below 40 as of Friday evening. (See Below)


-- New England saw it’s perfect ‘over’ start come to an end on Thursday as it defeated Tampa Bay 19-14 and the ‘under’ was never in doubt.


-- The ‘over’ has gone 9-7-1 in non-conference games this season, excluding the aforementioned result between the Pats-Bucs game. Two more on tap this weekend (49ers at Colts, Chargers at Giants).


-- Jacksonville will be playing its third straight game away from home on Sunday at Pittsburgh. The club was in London two weeks ago before playing at the N.Y. Jets in Week 4, which also went to overtime. The Steelers remain the best ‘under’ team in the NFL, watching all four of their games cash to the low side.

-- Miami is also perfect to the ‘under’ (3-0) this season and it will have its home opener against Tennessee on Sunday. The Dolphins are ranked last or near the bottom in nearly every offensive category but their defense is legit and they could match up well against a hobbled Tennessee team.


-- As of Friday evening the 49ers-Colts is the most heavily wagered ‘over’ according to our Betting Trends and the Packers-Cowboys ‘over’ is next in line. Going back to last season, Green Bay has seen the high side cash in 14 of its last 17 games and what’s impressive is that includes a 6-0 ‘over’ record in totals closing in the fifties during this span. This week’s number is hovering between 52 and 53.


-- The 'byes' begin this week with Atlanta, Denver, New Orleans and Washington catching a short break.


Line Moves


Listed below are the largest line moves as of Friday evening based off the Week 5 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.


Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: 44 ½ to 42
San Francisco at Indianapolis: 43 to 44 ½
Kansas City at Houston: 47 to 45


The Steelers ‘under’ has been a popular wager with both the pro and novice bettors and it’s once again a major liability for the offshore outfit BookMaker.eu.


Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu also told VegasInsider.com that the Colts-49ers ‘over’ and the Chiefs-Texans ‘under’ have received very strong support in Week 5.


Thirty Something


Betting blindly on the ‘over’ in these low totals have turned a profit this season but they aren’t easy to watch and often require a full 60 minutes of attention.


Buffalo at Cincinnati: This should be a great matchup as Buffalo (13.5 PPG, 306 YPG) and Cincinnati (16.8 PPG, 273 YPG) both have very solid defensive units. The Bills caught a lot of attention last week in their win at Atlanta (23-17) despite the Falcons winning the stat battle but three turnovers eventually did them in. Cincinnati certainly isn’t in the same class as Atlanta but quarterback Andy Dalton has tossed six picks and no interceptions in his last two games and he seems to have more confidence and composure under his new offensive coordinator. The Bills nipped the Bengals 16-12 last season in November in a game where both teams were depleted offensively.


N.Y. Jets at Cleveland: These teams played to a wild 31-28 shootout last season in Cleveland as the Jets won and the QB that day for the Browns was Josh McCown, who is now the starter for New York. Nobody is expecting a repeat effort this Sunday, especially in Cleveland. Since that result, the Browns have been held to 12.4 points per game in their last seven at home and not surprisingly the ‘under’ has cashed in every contest. I believe Cleveland will win this game on Sunday but I’m certainly not expecting any fireworks.


Baltimore at Oakland: The Ravens have looked awful offensively the last two weeks but that might not matter this week as they’ll be facing a Raiders team without QB Derek Carr (back). Taking over for him is EJ Manuel and I would expect Oakland to pound the ground knowing Baltimore (127 YPG) has been diced up against the run. Both clubs bring 3-1 ‘under’ records into this matchup.


Keep an eye on the Tennessee-Miami (43) and Minnesota-Chicago (40) totals, especially if quarterbacks Sam Bradford (knee) and Marcus Mariota (hamstring) don’t suit up for the Vikings or Titans respectively.

Divisional Action


The ‘under’ has gone 14-7 (67%) in divisional games this season and that includes a 5-2 record last weekend. This week, we only have two games on tap and total bettors could be scratching their head on Sunday’s late afternoon matchup between the Seahawks and Rams.


Seattle at Los Angeles: The last time these teams have seen a total (46.5) this high was in 2005 when Marshall Faulk and Shaun Alexander were the running backs for the Rams and Seahawks respectively. Why the bump up? Los Angeles has watched the ‘over’ go 4-0 this season and it’s ranked first in points per game (35.5) and second in yards per play (6.4) plus the defense hasn’t had much success keeping teams off the scoreboard (26.2 PPG). While I don’t want to discredit the Rams, their best efforts came against weaker defensive units (49ers, Colts) and they were humbled against a very solid Washington unit. It’s not a stretch to say that Seattle's defense will be the toughest test for the Rams and outside of one bad quarter against the Titans, the Seahawks have still maintained their stature as top defensive club. The ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the pair and that includes an ugly 9-3 home win by Los Angeles last season.


Minnesota at Chicago: (See Below)


Under the Lights


The ‘over’ went 3-0 in the primetime games last week and the high side has gone 8-6 this season and that includes this past Thursday’s ‘under’ result between the Patriots and Buccaneers.


Kansas City at Houston: The ‘under’ has cashed in two straight and three of the last four meetings between the pair yet this week’s total is expecting some points for this matchup. It’s a tough total to handicap for a couple reasons. The Chiefs have looked very dynamic offensively this season but the points have declined each week from their attack and Houston’s defense is ranked fifth in total defense (291.5 YPG). RB Kareem Hunt is the real deal but QB Alex Smith has watched his QB rating decline in each game and in last week’s win over the Skins, he had a season-high carries. When you’re handicapping Houston, the Deshaun Watson factor is now in play and he’s looked great the last two weeks albeit against subpar defensive units. On paper, KC is ranked 26th in total defense but it has been solid in the red zone this season. The sharps knocked this total down but the SNF chase game could have the public bettors leaning high.

Minnesota at Chicago: The ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 games in this series and that includes a run of three straight to the low side from Soldier Field. The Bears will start rookie QB Mitch Trubisky and they have had extra time to prepare after playing at Green Bay last Thursday. Minnesota’s defense is still one of the best in the league and they’ve held three of four opponents under 20 points this season. Even if Bradford comes to play for the Vikings, how will he fare from a three-week layoff?


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Fearless Predictions


It was an ugly week as I added another $220 to the overall deficit ($460) this season. Hopefully the second quarter treats me better than the first. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Green Bay-Dallas 52 ½


Best Under: Baltimore-Oakland 39 ½


Best Team Total: Over 21 ½ San Francisco


Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 33 ½ Jacksonville-Pittsburgh
Under 48 ½ N.Y. Jets-Cleveland
Over 36 San Francisco-Indianapolis

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 5 Essentials
October 7, 2017


No time to waste, let's get right into thought process mode in handicapping Week 5's offerings:


Sunday, Oct. 8


Chargers at Giants: New York defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo had players run their film session for accountability's sake. Its defense is having trouble stopping the run and have squandered games on last-second drives in consecutive weeks. The N.Y. Post reported that Ben McAdoo cut down the music that typically blares during practices to go over key points and preach "accountability," so it's clear what the central theme was in camp this past week.


At 0-4, there's no room for error either of these teams, which makes this one of the better matchups on Sunday despite the records. Both Eli Manning and Philip Rivers have seen brighter days, but both can still be prolific passers.


Giants second-year MLB B.J. Goodson has been injured but returned and is being tasked with a leadership role. Jason Pierre-Paul (knee/shoulder) and Olivier Vernon (ankle) are each hobbled, but their secondary gets back CB Janoris Jenkins. Vernon and center Weston Richburg (concussion), the team's top offensive lineman, sat in practices this week. Richburg didn't clear protocol and has been ruled out, so the team may have issues up front, an area that's already a weakness. Guard John Jerry, Vernon and Pierre-Paul are questionable.


Tackle Joe Barksdale (foot) guard Matt Slauson (tricep) were limited in practice as the o-line issues that have helped trip up the Chargers the past few years continue. Russell Okung (groin) and LB Jatavis Brown (ankle) will play, while rookie WR Mike Williams (neck) is still at least a game away. The Chargers went out on Friday, a day early, to get acclimated to the time difference. They have lost nine straight overall, winning last on Nov. 27, 2016 on the road at Houston.


Bills at Bengals: Despite no true No. 1 receiver and a number of key offensive linemen being sidelined, Buffalo has pulled off back-to-back wins over Denver and Atlanta. The 17 points surrendered by the defense against the explosive Falcons last week were a season-high. First-year head coach Sean McDermott is pushing all the right buttons and has gotten enough from QB Tyrod Taylor, who has averaged over 8 yards per completion in Bills wins, to keep the chains moving consistently.


LeSean McCoy has run for just 106 combined yards after going for 110 in the season opener, so if he picks up his production now that he's healthier, the success can continue. They've been moving the ball decently despite the absence of talented left tackle Cordy Glenn, expected to return after practicing in full on Friday. The defensive line has been without DE Shaq Lawson or a healthy Marcell Dareus, but both should be in the mix. Safety Micah Hyde, leading the NFL with three interceptions, is listed as probable after dealing with a knee issue.


Cincinnati is looking for consecutive wins and its third straight solid effort since handing Bill Lazor play-calling duties. Andy Dalton is 46-for-57 for 498 yards and six TDs since the switch, so this will be a great test against an excellent defense. Unfortunately, he won't have tight end Tyler Eifert (back) and speedy rookie John Ross (knee) in the mix, but this is no longer the same bumbling offense they were earlier this season. Defensive improvement was also on display last week with LB Vontaze Burfict back, but this will be a step up from stopping the Browns.


Jets at Browns: Cleveland has seen DeShone Kizer put a lot of his raw talent on display, but he leads the NFL with eight interceptions and has consistently been burned by the fire he's been thrown in, posting the worst QB ranking and completion percentage of any starter. The loss of Corey Coleman definitely didn't help, while veteran offseason acquisition Kenny Britt hasn't been a factor and is doubtful due to a knee injury. The baptism continues with the surprising Jets in town looking to climb over .500 five games in, but this has been placed in the pick'em category by oddsmakers as one the Browns could win.


Aiding Cleveland's cause is the return of top pick Myles Garrett, who is set to finally make his NFL regular-season debut after seeing a promising preseason cut short by a high ankle sprain. LB Jamie Collins remains out with a concussion, so the defense the Browns hoped to field when they started the season still won't be complete.


New York defeated Jacksonville in OT last week after shutting out Miami 20-0, but carries a 2-7 (2-6-1 ATS) record over their last nine road games. One of the wins came last Oct. 30 in Cleveland in the only away game they've been favored in over the past two seasons. Ironically, the Jets beat Josh McCown, who threw for 341 yards but was picked off twice. He's now their quarterback, looking to play turnover-free ball and lean on a ground game that sprung Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire for big plays against the Jags. Matt Forte (toe) is still sidelined.


Star DE Muhammad Wilkerson is questionable, while starting LB Josh Martin (ankle) won't play, joined by defensive backups Kony Ealy (shoulder) and Darryl Roberts (hamstring) as inactive. Backup corner Juston Burris (foot) could also miss the game for New York.


Jaguars at Steelers: That loss in New York was certainly a momentum killer for Jacksonville, which saw a penalty wipe out a late touchdown that would've put the Jets in a hole with roughly a minute to go. Instead, Blake Bortles couldn't throw over the defensive line, the Jags settled for a field goal and lost in OT. Instead of coming in 3-1 and in sole possession of the AFC South lead, they're in a three-way tie for first and arrive as Week 5's largest underdog.


Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown celebrated Festivus early, airing out their grievances this week following Brown's tantrum in last week's win over Baltimore. While there's no question his antics were uncalled for, there's no denying that Roethlisberger hasn't been sharp this season, leaving a lot out there by not executing. Despite that, Pittsburgh smoked the Ravens to take charge of the AFC North and is the current Super Bowl favorite according to Westgate Vegas. The Steelers are nearly 100 percent healthy outside of tackle Marcus Gilbert, who has been sidelined of late but might get back in the mix despite being listed as doubtful.


Jacksonville is nowhere near as healthy, but will have its elite secondary intact despite Jalen Ramsey being limied in practice due to an ankle issue. The Jags lead the NFL in pass defense, which will makes them a scary foe given Roethlisberger's shaky start. Center Brandon Lidner (illness) and WR Marqise Lee (ribs) are listed as questionable, while Bortles (wrist) and Leonard Fournette (ankle) appeared on the injury report but will play barring something unforeseen.


Titans at Dolphins: Jay Cutler took 11 preseason snaps at Hard Rock Stadium upon joining Miami in the preseason, throwing a jump ball that DeVante Parker took to the house. That was Aug. 17. An incredible seven-plus weeks later, he'll debut at home as the Dolphins starting quarterback, hoping to snap a run that has seen the team's offense score one meaningful touchdown all season. They've been held scoreless in eight of 12 quarters thus far and have been hampered by a lack of chemistry in addition to RB Jay Ajayi being bothered by a knee issue. Playing away from home, going from L.A. to East Rutherford to London, certainly hasn't helped manners, but they're not going to be greeted by a very patient fan base here.


Tennessee's defense has surrendered 31.5 points per game, next-to-last in the league behind Indianapolis. Veteran coordinator Dick LeBeau saw his unit give up 50 of Houston's 57 points last week and has been witness to his secondary getting carved up by Derek Carr, Russell Wilson and rookie Deshaun Watson. They've missed safety Jonathan Cyprien, who is expected to miss another game.


Another poor effort on that side of the ball would be hard to overcome since Marcus Mariota is questionable to play due to a hamstring injury suffered on his second rushing touchdown last week. He'll be a game-time decision and would be replacced by veteran backup Matt Cassel if he can't play. The Dolphins would catch a major break if they avoid facing the Titans' starter given their own issues in the secondary.


49ers at Colts: Even though two winless teams play and the Jets host the Browns, this is Week 5's worst matchup. Andrew Luck is practicing again but won't participate here, leaving Indianapolis in Jacoby Brissett's hands. The ex-Patriot draft pick has made some mistakes, but was terrific in the Colts' only win and made some nice plays against Seattle's stifling secondary, sparking hope that he'll be able to keep the team afloat until Luck is ready. Due to the Jags choking at the Jets, the rest of the AFC South is at .500. Getting center Ryan Kelly back in the lineup for the first time this season should definitely upgrade the line and improve the timing up front.


San Francisco has covered three straight, losing by a field goal or less each time to remain winless. This is the Niners' second of three consecutive road games and represents their best chance to win, on paper, until they visit Chicago on Dec. 3. The Brian Hoyer-led offense has found the end zone in only one of their four games, settling for entirely too many field goals after struggling inside the red zone.


San Francisco's defense will again be without safety Eric Reid and impressive-looking rookie LB Reuben Foster, though it hopes both can return next week. The 49ers have lost 18 of their last 20 road games, winning last on Christmas eve of '16 at the Rams. The Colts have won three straight meetings in this series by a 73-24 margin, last losing at home in 2001.


Cardinals at Eagles: Arizona would've lost to most teams on Sunday, surviving only when Carson Palmer connected with Larry Fitzgerald to erase an OT deficit. Coming on the heels of a disappointing Monday night performance against Dallas, that 49ers game was a must-win that it couldn't get a handle on until the final play. The Cardinals have struggled in every game this season and haven't broken 20 points since losing RB David Johnson in Week 1. Despite being outscored by 17 points, they're right there at 2-2 but will only be home once between now and a showdown with the Seahawks on Nov. 5. They'll be playing outdoors for the first time this season.


Conversely, the Eagles are beginning a stretch where they'll play four of their next five at Lincoln Financial Field, following up next Thursday's visit to Carolina with three straight home games. Philadelphia pulled off a 26-24 win in L.A. against the Chargers in what felt like a home date given the apathy for the team since relocating from San Diego. Eagles fans bought up most tickets and made their presence felt in helping rattle Philip Rivers. LeGarrette Blount closed the game out with his tough running, allowing Philly to open 3-1 for the first time since 2014. That year marked the only time it has opened 4-1 or better since 2006, so getting this one would give Doug Pederson a start that Chip Kelly managed once and mentor Andy Reid only enjoyed twice in his lengthy tenure at the helm.


Philadelphia has to overcome the absence of standout DT Fletcher Cox (calf) and top corner Ronald Darby (ankle) will miss another game, so its defense will be vulnerable. Corner Jaylen Watkins and safety Corey Graham should return, but aren't expected to be at 100 percent. Arizona won't have left tackle DJ Humphries, pass rusher Markus Golden or DT Robert Nkemdiche, who has been absent all year. Left guard Alex Boone hopes to return to protect Palmer, who should have his full arsenal of receivers with J.J. Nelson back.


Panthers at Lions: Cam Newton's lame, chauvinistic attempt at humor stole a lot of the shine off Sunday's road upset of the Patriots, especially now that they were able to bounce back and beat the Bucs. Despite the controversy, it's not one that is going to affect the team dynamic, especially if Newton can focus and build on his performance in Foxboro. After throwing three picks at home against the Saints, Newton accounted for four touchdowns, three through the air, for the first time since Sept. 25 of 2016.


He'll alleviate a lot of concerns if he can have similar success against a Detroit defense that allowed just seven points at Minnesota last week and has put its team in position to open 4-0 given how close they came to beating Atlanta in Week 3. This will be their first home game since a Golden Tate touchdown was correctly overturned, resulting in a 10-second run-off that left them no chance to try and score from less than a foot away. It says a lot about Jim Caldwell's team that they were about to rebound from such a devastating loss to beat a division rival on the road, especially since this next four-game block that begins here features trips to New Orleans and Green Bay sandwiched around a home date with the Steelers.


Seahawks at Rams: The highest-scoring team in football through four games is quarterbacked by Jared Goff. That sounds bizarre, but even with help from some defensive scores, L.A.'s offense has been among pro football's most dynamic, a wild 180 from where it stood last season. After pulling off an upset in Dallas, the Rams and they're 35.5 points per game are back home for an NFC West date against perennial division favorite Seattle. Since it's fair to say they've faced some depleted, weary defenses in the Colts, 49ers and Cowboys and dropped a game against the top unit they've faced when Washington came to town, there's room for healthy skepticism.


"Over the last 10 seasons, the Rams have finished 21st or worse in scoring. They’ve finished last in the league twice, including last year when they scored 14.0 points per game. The last time the Rams led the league in scoring was 2001 when Kurt Warner was the quarterback," Bookmaker.eu's Scott Cooley said. "Of course, this prompted the thought of which team will ultimately win the scoring title in 2017, and oddsmakers aren’t giving the Rams much of chance to hold their position.


Bookmaker lists the Falcons (+200), Patriots (+275), Chiefs (+400), Eagles (+550), Cowboys (+900) and Packers (+1200) with better odds than L.A. (+1500) to top the NFL in points when the season ends.


Give credit where it is due to Sean McVay for making the game easier for Goff and playmakers Todd Gurley, Sammy Watkins, Tavon Austin and Cooper Kupp. Now let's find out whether they can execute against an elite group of defenders, albeit not at full strength.


Seahawks DE Cliff Avril (neck) and one of his backups, Quinton Jefferson (hand) are sidelined, while starting CB Jeremy Lane is doubtful due to a groin injury. Tackle Rees Odhiambo and Luke Joeckel, who make up the left side of the o-line, are both expected to play. The Rams may have an issue up front. Although center John Sullivan will gut it out again through a sore hip, guard Jamon Brown (groin) will likely be a game-time decision. L.A. starting safety Lamarcus Joyner is considered doubtful. The Rams have played Seattle tough in spite of the team's struggles, winning three of the last four. The last five meetings in this series have been split evenly.


Ravens at Raiders: Oakland got terrific news regarding a potential Derek Carr return from a back injury that could come as early as next week if he doesn't rush back here. That doesn't help them much against Baltimore if he can't go, although it does potentially allow them to be aggressive in not holding back any tricks they might want to save for down the road if they needed to dig in with E.J. Manuel for the long haul. At home, coming off consecutive losses, this is a game they need to win to get back on track since AFC West foes L.A. and Kansas City come through the next two weeks.


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With Carr sidelined indefinitely, BookMaker adjusted its futures odds for the Oakland Raiders. Going into last week, the Raiders had +1400 odds to win the Super Bowl but they have since been moved to +2500.


"Carr’s value to a game line is 5-6 points, depending on the opponent," said BookMaker.eu's Scott Cooley. "EJ Manuel is a significant dropoff in the eyes of the oddsmakers as they assigned his value to a game line as 0-1 point. The Raiders have seen a load of support despite the inept Manuel at quarterback. It’s probably more of a play against Baltimore than on Oakland. That spread opened pick'em and is now Oakland -3."


Baltimore finds itself in dire need of a win too, having been outscored 70-16 over its past two losses. Neither blowout came in a true road game, so the Ravens will have to find a way to get acclimated to a hostile environment for the first time all season given that their 20-0 win at Cincinnati in Week 1 was so thorough that the Bengals heard more boos than they did. Joe Flacco has been dreadful, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns in three of his five games. His best game has come at home against the Browns. It's no wonder that this spread would be close to double-digits if Carr were healthy. Manuel will have Michael Crabtree (chest) available after he was cleared to play and hopes to get a slumping Amari Cooper out of his funk.


Packers at Cowboys: Dallas left tackle Tyron Smith dealt with back tightness all week, putting his availability in question. Owner Jerry Jones went on he raido and said it would "really be a surprise if he doesn't play," which is a positive development given the alternative. If Smith can't go, Byron Bell would start at left tackle, which would really weaken that side of the line since guard Chaz Green has struggled and has been dealing with a hip issue. The news isn't as positive regarding top LB Sean Lee, who is likely to miss this game due to a hamstring strain that would benefit by an additional week off given that the Cowboys have a bye up next.


Currently, Green Bay is favored to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl as far as the Westgate is concerned (13/5), while the Cowboys come in at 8/1, fourth behind the Pack, Falcons (4/1) and Seahawks (5/1). Although they're banged up on both sides of the ball, there are signs this could be the healthiest they've been this season. Tackles Brian Bulaga and David Bakhtiari practiced in pads on Thursday and are on track to start together for the first time this season. Versatile back Ty Montgomery is doubtful due to his broken ribe, which means rookies Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams will likely get carries. WR Davante Adams needs to pass concussion protocol to participate, but LBs Nick Perry and Ahmad Brooks and CBs Davon House and Quinten Rollins are all likely to play. The Packers won a 34-31 classic in January's divisional playoffs in Arlington on a Mason Crosby field goal as time expired. They've won seven of the last 10 showdowns.


Chiefs at Texans: Kansas City puts its perfect record on the line as it attempts to move to 5-0, which would give it another obstacle to clear since teams that have won their first five games have managed to miss the playoffs in each of the past two seasons. The Chiefs are the only candidate able to potentially continue that dubious tradition, and considering they face the Steelers, Raiders, Broncos and Cowboys next, they need to make sure to secure all the wins they can get. Andy Reid's team has won 14 of their last 16 regular-season games, losing a pair of 19-17 decisions at home against Tampa Bay and Tennessee in last year. Kansas City carries an eight-game road winning streak (8-0 ATS), last losing over a year ago on Oct. 2 in a 43-14 rout at Pittsburgh.


After pulling out a home win on Monday night against Washington, covering in fluky fashion after scoring via fumble return on the game's final play, Kansas City faces a short week situation that puts it at a disadvantage going on the road despite its recent run of success outside Arrowhead. Although QB Alex Smith is an MVP candidate at the quarter point and RB Kareem Hunt is enjoying one of the most prolific starts to a career in NFL history, there's still a long way to go in a season where they've already lost safety Eric Berry. Tamba Hali won't be back off the PUP list until later this month and another top pass rusher, Dee Ford, will miss his second straight with a hip injury. The offensive line will likely be missing both starting center Mitch Morse and guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif.


Houston continues to get healthier, though standout corner Kevin Johnson (knee) will miss his third straight game and LB Brian Cushing remains suspended. So long as Greg Mancz plays through a knee issue, the Texans will be whole on offense besides tackle Duane Brown's continued holdout. The Texans come off a dominant 57-14 home win over Tennessee and nearly took out New England the week prior. They're a pick'em at home after a Jekyll and Hyde showing at Reliant Stadium thus far, having been dominated by Jacksonville in their home opener and imposing their will on the Titans last week. Houston beat the Chiefs in Week 2 last season 19-12 in a game that featured eight field goals.


Monday, Oct. 9


Vikings at Bears: Week 5's final matchup is all about the quarterbacks. Rookie No. 2 pick Mitch Trubisky will debut for Chicago. Veteran Sam Bradford may return for Minnesota. Based on how he felt in practices late in the week, calling his knee's improvement "night and day" from where it was when it started acting up to force him out of the last three games. Backup Case Keenum has gone 1-2 while filling in, contributing to the mixed results with uneven play.


The Bears have lost four of five in the series, but won at home 20-10 on Halloween night last season behind Jordan Howard's 153 rushing yards and have held serve at Soldier Field in eight of the last nine years in this series. Considering the Bears have been no juggernaut in that span, that's impressive. Be it under Brad Childress, Leslie Frazier or current coach Mike Zimmer, the Vikes have invented ways to lose in Chicago, dropping OT games, shootouts and low-scoring affairs alike. Minnesota snapped an seven-game losing streak with a 23-20 win on Nov. 1, 2015, scoring the final 10 points inside the last two minutes and winning on a Blair Walsh walk-off field goal.


The Vikings are 1-6 SU/ATS over their last seven road games and will be playing their first game without exceptional rookie RB Dalvin Cook, who tore his ACL in Sunday's home loss to Detroit. Backups Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon are expected to get most of the carries, while WR Michael Floyd comes off suspension to aid the cause. Chicago will be without suspended linebacker Danny Trevathan, who is taking a seat after being disciplined for his vicious hit on Green Bay's Adams on Sept. 28.

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 5
October 7, 2017


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Steelers are 11-0 ATS (9.55 ppg) since Nov 13, 2005 as a home favorite of more than a TD after their last game went under the total by at least seven points.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Cowboys are 0-14 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since Nov 22, 2009 as a home favorite coming off a loss where they failed to cover.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Chargers are 7-0 ATS (5.1 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 on the road coming off a home loss where Philip Rivers through at least 35 passes.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Colts are 0-15 OU (-10.7 ppg) since Jan 01, 2006 as a favorite coming off a loss as a dog where they allowed more points than expected.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Titans are 11-0-1 OU (12.0 ppg) since Sep 23, 2012 coming off a road game where they scored at least seven points less than expected.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Jaguars are 10-0 ATS (+7.60 ppg) in franchise history a road 7+ dog on grass when they are off a loss and facing an opponent that is averaging more than 34 passes per game.

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Chiefs at Texans
October 7, 2017


The Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) have won and covered all four of their games this season while the Houston Texans (2-2) have covered all three of their games started by rookie quarterback DeShaun Watson. The two profitable squads hook up in Houston for Sunday Night Football where the Chiefs are a slight 1-point favorite with the total sitting at 45.5.


The Chiefs are the NFL's only undefeated team and they come with a diverse offense and good enough defense that have many believing they'll be the AFC team dethroning the Patriots as Super Bowl representatives. They got a massive jump start to the season with a 42-27 win at New England in Week 1 and they've been riding the momentum every week.


It was in that Patriots game where quarterback Alex Smith uncharacteristically threw the ball downfield with success and where wide receiver Tyreek Hill showed once again what unique weapon he is. But most of all it was a coming out party for the third-round draft pick out of Toledo, running-back Kareem Hunt. What a story this kid has been. After fumbling on his first career possession -- he rarely fumbled in college -- Hunt ran for 148 yards, caught five passes for 98 yards and scored a total of three TDs. Through four games he has 659 total yards and six TDs, and still only one fumble.


Hunt is the early favorite for rookie of the year, but right behind him and charging hard is Watson and if he continues to win games and put up good numbers, he kind of gets extra credit in rookie voting because of leadership. He came within seconds of beating the Patriots on the road in Week 3, losing 36-33 while throwing for 301 yards, and he threw four TD passes last week in a 57-14 home win over the Titans. But no one is really surprised after seeing him absolutely destroy Nick Saban's vaunted Alabama defense in the past two National Championship games for Clemson.


Lost in the awe of Watson's maturity is the fact that Houston brings in the No. 5 defense in the league allowing just 291.5 yards per game. Yes, and J.J. Watt is healthy and dominant as ever. Let's not forget that it was the Texans defense that led the Texans to the playoffs the past two season with virtually no one at quarterback.


The Chiefs once again find themselves as opportunistic as ever. Last season they led the NFL in turnover margin at +17. This season they're fourth so far at +5. Smith hasn't tossed any interceptions and their only fumble is Hunt's on his first carry. It's hard to lose games when not turning the ball over and it appears to be KC's weekly edge.


LINE MOVEMENT


CG Technology books opened the Texans -1 for this game back in May when they released spreads on every game for the first 16 weeks of the season. On Sunday night they opened Kansas City -1.5 and it was bet down to -1 on Monday morning. The total opened at 47 and was bet down to 45.5.


"Sharp action came in on the Texans at +1.5, and I kind of like them myself with KC coming off a short week playing Monday night," said Jason Simbal, CG's VP of risk management. "I see this being a evenly bet game by the public so I'm anticipating the riskiest part of this game after the first 11 games have been posted is going to be the Over."


There are multiple sports books in town that have the game pick 'em with a high total of 46 at Wynn Resort.


ROBERTS' RATING


I have the Chiefs 2.5-point better than the Texans with Houston given +2.5 for home field which makes this a pick 'em game. Houston already had a high rating because of its defense and they've been upgraded a full point between the past two weeks because of its quality quarterback play. The Chiefs have also been upgraded a full point since the season began,


LAST MEETING


These two met in Week 2 last season at Houston with the Texans getting a 19-12 win as one-point favorites. QB Brock Osweiler led the way and looked sharp and in command despite throwing two interceptions. Houston was off to a 2-0 start, but then the wheels would fall off an Osweiler's deficiencies would be exposed. The previous meeting was in the playoffs after the 2015 season the Chiefs won 30-0 at Houston.


TRENDS

-- KC is 13-3 against the spread (ATS) in its last 16 road games.
-- KC stayed 'under' the total in nine of its past 12 games in October.


-- HOU is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games in Week 5.
-- HOU has gone 'over' in 11 of its last 13 games in October.


NEXT WEEK


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posts their lookahead lines for the following week each Tuesday and for Week 6 they opened the Texas as 8.5-point home favorites against the Browns. Kansas City has a home date with the Steelers where the Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites.


ODDS TO WIN DIVISION


AFC SOUTH: Texans 7/5, Titans 5/4, Jaguars 15/4, Colts 20/1


AFC WEST: Chiefs 4/7, Broncos 12/5, Raiders 5/1, Chargers 40/1


ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL


The Texans could have been had at 60/1 at the Westgate and have been adjusted down to 25/1 odds. The Chiefs opened at 20/1 and are now down to 9/1. Only the Steelers (9/2), Patriots (5/1), Packers (6/1) and Falcons (8/1) have lower odds.

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 5
October 7, 2017


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4


Week 5


1) Detroit -2.5 (1053)
2) Cincinnati -3 (847)
3) Houston PK (778)
4) L.A. Rams -1 (725)
5) Buffalo +3 (650)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 5 MATCHUPS & ODDS


Away Team Selections Home Team Selections


New England (-5.5) 259 Tampa Bay (+5.5) 259
L.A. Chargers (+3.5) 560 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) 317
Buffalo (+3) 650 Cincinnati (-3) 847
N.Y. Jets (PK) 509 Cleveland (PK) 371
Jacksonville (+8) 440 Pittsburgh (-8) 351
Tennessee (-3) 166 Miami (+3) 509
San Francisco (+1.5) 397 Indianapolis (-1.5) 351
Arizona (+6.5) 424 Philadelphia (-6.5) 560
Carolina (+2.5) 312 Detroit (-2.5) 1053
Seattle (+1) 571 L.A. Rams (-1) 725
Baltimore (+2.5) 296 Oakland (-2.5) 446
Green Bay (+2) 584 Dallas (-2) 604
Kansas City (PK) 615 Houston (PK) 778
Minnesota (-3) 336 Chicago (+3) 399




WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%
4 4-1 9-11 45%

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Cowboys' Irving expected to play Sunday
October 7, 2017


The Dallas Cowboys activated defensive end David Irving from the reserve/exempt list and he is expected to play in Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers.


Irving returned to practice Wednesday after a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. The Cowboys had a one-game exemption since he was coming back from suspension.


Irving, 24, replaces defensive end Charles Tapper, who was placed on injured reserve Thursday after suffering a broken bone in his foot in Wednesday's practice.


Irving was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week after last year's meeting against the Packers, recording a sack and forcing three fumbles in the Cowboys' win at Lambeau Field.


The 6-foot-7, 290-pound Irving played in 15 games for the Cowboys last season, recording 17 tackles and four sacks.


--Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford participated in practice again but was listed as questionable due to his left knee injury for Monday night's road game against the Chicago Bears.


Vikings coach Mike Zimmer was asked by reporters about his confidence in Bradford's ability to play.


"We'll see," Zimmer said, adding in jest, "I have a crystal ball now because one of the psychics in the Twin Cities gave me one, but I didn't bring it down here with me."


Bradford missed the last three games with a knee injury but returned to practice on Thursday.


--The Pittsburgh Steelers added wide receiver Martavis Bryant to the injury report due to an illness for Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.


The team on Saturday listed Bryant as questionable for the home game.


Bryant missed the entire 2016 season due to a suspension by the NFL for multiple drug violations under the substance-abuse policy.


--The Indianapolis Colts brought back former basketball player Mo Alie-Cox, signing the tight end to the team's practice squad.


The 6-foot-7, 250-pound Alie-Cox rejoins Indianapolis after spending time with the team during the 2017 offseason program and training camp. He was waived-injured on Aug. 5 and, after clearing waivers, was placed on the Colts' injured reserve list.

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 5
October 7, 2017


Week 4 Record: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Overall Record: 10-14 SU, 10-14 ATS

Bills at Bengals (-3, 39) – 1:00 PM EST


Buffalo
Record: 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


At the quarter mark of the season, the Bills are surprisingly the leaders of the AFC East after upsetting the Falcons, 23-17 as eight-point underdogs. The key to Buffalo’s early success has been its defense, which has allowed 17 points or less in all four games, in spite of getting outgained in each of the past three contests. This season, the Bills are 4-0 ATS through four games after going 1-5 ATS to close out the 2016 campaign. Buffalo went into Cincinnati last November as 2 ½-point underdogs and picked up a 16-12 victory in spite of scoring one touchdown.


Cincinnati
Record: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1


The Bengals’ offense struggled at home the first two weeks by scoring nine points, but they bounced back on the road by posting 24 points in an overtime loss at Green Bay. Cincinnati finally broke through the win column in a 31-7 blowout of Cleveland last week, as Andy Dalton threw four touchdowns to give the Bengals their second straight cover. The Bengals are playing off a win for the first time this season, as Marvin Lewis’ team struggled in this situation in 2016 by compiling a 1-4 SU/ATS off a victory.


Best Bet: Bengals -3


Jaguars at Steelers (-8 ½, 43 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Jacksonville
Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1


The Jaguars are playing away from North Florida for the third straight week as Jacksonville split the first two games of this road journey. Jacksonville blasted Baltimore in London, 44-7 as three-point underdogs in Week 3, but when flipped to a road favorite against the Jets in Week 4, lost in overtime, 23-20. Now the Jags are back in the underdog situation as Jacksonville has alternated wins and losses through the first four weeks.


Pittsburgh
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1


The Steelers rebounded nicely from an overtime loss at Chicago in Week 3 to cruise past Baltimore last Sunday as a 3 ½-road favorite, 26-9. In both victories this season, the Steelers have held their opponents to exactly nine points, while running back Le’Veon Bell torched the Ravens’ stout defense for 144 yards and two touchdowns. Pittsburgh has cashed the UNDER in all four games this season, while owning a 12-2 SU and 8-5-1 ATS in the past 13 games at Heinz Field.


Best Bet: Jaguars +8 ½


Cardinals at Eagles (-6 ½, 45) – 1:00 PM EST


Arizona
Record: 2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1


The Cardinals haven’t exactly set the world on fire as both of their wins have come in overtime against the Colts and 49ers. Arizona rallied from 10 points down to beat Indianapolis in Week 2, while the Cards didn’t register a touchdown in regulation last week against San Francisco. Carson Palmer hooked up with Larry Fitzgerald for the game-winning score in overtime after the 49ers kicked a field goal, but Arizona failed to cash as 6 ½-point favorites in an 18-15 win. The Cards have yet to cover a game this season, while being listed as a road underdog for the first time in 2017 after a 1-3 ATS mark in this role last season.


Philadelphia
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1


The Eagles have played three of their first four games away from Lincoln Financial Field, but Philadelphia has picked up a pair of road wins after posting a 1-7 record on the highway last season. Last week, the Eagles held off the Chargers in Los Angeles, 26-24 to pick up their second straight win by three points or less. Philadelphia’s offense has performed well in victories by putting up 30, 27, and 26 points in its three wins, while averaging 30.6 ppg in its first three victories in 2016. The Eagles have struggled with the Cardinals over the years by losing five of the past six meetings since 2009, including a 40-17 defeat in 2015.


Best Bet: Cardinals +6 ½


Panthers at Lions (-2, 43 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Carolina
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1


The Panthers pulled off the biggest upset of Week 4 by edging the Patriots, 33-30 to win outright as nine-point underdogs. Although Carolina blew a two-touchdown lead, the Panthers kicked a 48-yard field goal off the foot of Graham Gano to improve 2-0 against AFC opponents. Cam Newton overcame his offensive struggles through the first three weeks to toss three touchdown passes for Carolina, while also scoring a touchdown on the ground. Carolina is making its first trip to Detroit since a 49-35 defeat in 2011 when Newton was intercepted four times by the Lions.


Detroit
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 28/1


The Lions are right in the mix of the NFC North race after picking up a victory over Minnesota last week, 14-7 as 2 ½-point underdogs. Detroit beat Minnesota for the third time since the start of 2016, while improving to 2-0 away from Ford Field. The last time the Lions played on their home turf, they had a victory taken away in the final seconds of a 30-26 setback to the Falcons as a late touchdown was reversed following a review. Surprisingly, the Lions are listed as a favorite for the first time this season, as Detroit posted a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS record in 2016 when laying points.


Best Bet: Lions -2


Seahawks at Rams (-1, 46 ½) – 4:05 PM EST


Seattle
Record: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1


How the fortunes have changed in the NFC West as Seattle is looking up at Los Angeles after the first quarter of the season. The Seahawks erased a 15-10 halftime deficit to the Colts last week by outscoring Indianapolis, 36-3 in the second half to easily cash as 12 ½-point favorites, 46-18 to even their mark at 2-2. Seattle is still searching for its first road victory of the season after losing at Green Bay and Tennessee in September, while dropping a 9-3 decision at the L.A. Coliseum to the Rams last season. Since the start of 2016, the Seahawks own a dreadful 3-8 ATS record away from CenturyLink Field.


Los Angeles
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


The Rams have been a juggernaut so far this season by topping the 35-point mark in all three of their victories, including erasing a pair of double-digit deficits in last week’s 35-30 triumph at Dallas. Los Angeles didn’t score five touchdowns, but instead were assisted by seven field goals from Greg Zuerlein, while the go-ahead touchdown came on a 53-yard connection from Jared Goff to Todd Gurley. The Rams have easily eclipsed the OVER in all four games, but are 1-2 ATS in the role of a favorite.


Best Bet: Seahawks +1


Packers at Cowboys (-2, 52 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Green Bay
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1


The Packers head to Dallas for the first time since knocking off the Cowboys, 34-31 as 5 ½-point underdogs in last season’s divisional playoffs. Green Bay improved to 6-1 in its previous seven meetings with Dallas dating back to 2009 as Mason Crosby drilled the game-winning field goal from 55 yards out in the final seconds. Fast forward to this season, the Packers rebounded from a Week 2 defeat at Atlanta to win each of the last two games over the Bengals and Bears at home. The Packers closed out last season by winning four of their final five games away from Lambeau Field, while going 3-3 ATS in their past six opportunities as a road underdog.


Dallas
Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1


The Cowboys have been up and down through the opening month as they allowed 42 points in a blowout loss at Denver and 35 points in a meltdown defeat to Los Angeles last week. However, Dallas yielded a combined 20 points in its two wins over the Giants and Cardinals as the Cowboys didn’t lose their second game last season until Week 14. The Cowboys have struggled with the Packers over the years, but have won eight of their last 11 at AT&T Stadium with Dak Prescott under center.


Best Bet: Cowboys -2

 

[TIGERTOY]

Wow, a lot of reading.
Good stuffs

 

[lostinamerica]

Packed with INFORMATION and ANGLES, as always, to weigh and assess, for this week and future weeks.

Much thanks.

GL

 

[CNOTES]

Thanks guys.........we all can use information before blowing our $$$$...........This is real news not FAKE..........lol.......................@)

 

[CNOTES]

FANTASY PLAYS: Stud picks for daily leagues in Week 5
October 8, 2017


Winning in daily fantasy isn't always about finding contrarian picks to outsmart everyone else. Yes, you want to differentiate your lineup to increase your odds at winning in tournaments, but you can't ignore the studs that are still worth their high price tags. Here are the studs to consider for Week 5:


DAK PRESCOTT, QB, Dallas ($6,800 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel)


Prescott has come close to 20-plus points in every game so far and has thrown for seven touchdowns in the last three games. Two of those games include road starts against the Broncos and Cardinals. Prescott adds rushing upside, too, hitting the 20-yard mark three times and running for a score in the one week when he only had 16 rushing yards. The Packers are playing better against the pass this year, but they've faced mediocre play the past two weeks and still push the pace offensively. The Cowboys, especially Prescott, will need to be aggressive to keep pace given the weakness of their own secondary. At $6,800 and $7,700, Prescott is actually a relative bargain and one of three quarterbacks with a great chance to hit 3X value.


LE'VEON BELL, RB, Pittsburgh ($9,500, $9,500)


Find a way to afford Bell this week, especially if it's a cash lineup. Bell is in line for his best game of the season. While the Jaguars are dominant against the pass, they are the third worst team against the run and just let Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire combine for 256 rushing yards, 65 receiving yards and two touchdowns last week. Alex Collins ran for 82 yards on nine carries against them and Derrick Henry had 92 and a touchdown on 14 carries. The Jaguars just can't stop the run, and they have no shot at even limiting Bell this week.


JORDY NELSON, WR, Green Bay ($8,100/$8,600)


Going back to that Packers-Cowboys game, the Cowboys secondary is among the worst in the league. Randall Cobb is another great play this week, but when you can go with Aaron Rodgers' No. 1 man, you have to do it. Nelson is 6 for 6 on his red zone targets with four touchdowns. If the Packers are in scoring position, there is a great chance that Nelson will have an opportunity for a touchdown. On top of that, Rodgers has increased his touchdown total each week, and while he likely won't push it to five this week, he's a lock for more than one. If Davante Adams is out, Nelson becomes an even better play, as Adams has eight red zone targets of his own.


DELANIE WALKER, TE, Tennessee ($4,700/$6,000)

In Matt Cassel's one full start last year, he targeted Walker eight times. While Walker only finished with 35 yards, he did catch five passes and was second only to Rishard Matthews in targets, receptions and yards. The tight end is a quarterback's best friend when that quarterback is young, lacking in talent or both. The Dolphins defense is struggling this year, and while Coby Fleener and Austin Seferian-Jenkins didn't do much the past two weeks, the Dolphins gave up plenty to the Chargers. Hunter Henry went 7 for 7 with 80 yards and Antonio Gates caught a touchdown. Walker can get close to double-digit targets this week, returning 2X-plus value.


EAGLES DEFENSE ($3,100/$4,600)

While the Eagles secondary is one of the worst, the defensive line can get after the quarterback. That's where the upside of using this defense comes into play. Yes, the Eagles defense/special teams carries risk if they do nothing to stop Carson Palmer and company, but if they can get pressure on Palmer, he's shown to become turnover prone. Just look to the Cardinals' first game of the season. The Lions got to Palmer early and often and he ended up throwing three interceptions. Not surprisingly, the Lions scored a defensive touchdown as a result, and the Eagles already have 10 sacks, four recovered fumbles, three interceptions and a defensive touchdown of their own.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 8


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


NYJ at CLE 01:00 PM


NYJ -1.5 *****


JAC at PIT 01:00 PM


JAC +7.0

O 42.0 *****


ARI at PHI 01:00 PM


ARI +6.0


BUF at CIN 01:00 PM


O 39.0


TEN at MIA 01:00 PM


TEN +1.0 *****


O 41.5 *****


CAR at DET 01:00 PM


CAR +1.5


SF at IND 01:00 PM


U 44.0 *****


LAC at NYG 01:00 PM


O 45.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

SEA at LAR 04:05 PM


LAR -2.0 *****


U 47.0 *****


BAL at OAK 04:05 PM

OAK -3.0 *****


U 40.5


GB at DAL 04:25 PM


GB +2.5 *****

O 52.5

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay......*****


KC at HOU 08:30 PM


KC -2.0 *****


U 45.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

HOUSTON -- Coming off two games where Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans offense looked poised to make the team standouts in the AFC South, the Texans’ defense struggled and Houston lost its two most consistent pass rushers, including J.J. Watt, in the team’s 42-34 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.


The Texans lost Watt (tibial plateau fracture to his left leg) and outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus (chest) on the opening drive of the game. Both players were almost immediately ruled out for the rest of the game, and Watt was taken to the hospital in an ambulance. Watt injured his leg after he fell to the ground while blocking on a play. He was helped to the sideline by the Texans’ training staff and looked at in the sideline tent before he was taken off on a cart.


It’s still unknown how long Watt will be out. The Texans played without Watt for most of the 2016 season, after he re-aggravated his back injury in Week 3 and needed season-ending surgery. The unit, led by Mercilus and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, finished last season ranked No. 1.


Without Watt and Mercilus, the Texans’ defense had a difficult time slowing Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, who finished 29-of-37 for 324 yards and three touchdowns. He did not throw an interception and had a passer rating of 130.2. Tight end Travis Kelce -- Smith's top target on Sunday -- had eight catches for 98 yards.


But even though Watson and the offense kept the Texans in the game -- including a fourth quarter 48-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Will Fuller to get the Texans within 26-20 -- Houston’s defense couldn’t make stops when they needed to. Watson finished 16-of-31 for 261 yards and five touchdowns and no interceptions.


Watson is the first player in Texans history with four or more passing touchdowns in back-to-back games and according to the Elias Sports Bureau is just the second rookie in NFL history to do that, joining Robert Griffin III in 2012. He has multiple passing touchdowns for the third straight game, which is tied for the third-longest active streak in the NFL.


After Watson threw an eight-yard touchdown to wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins with 1:49 left in the first half, Smith led the Chiefs on a seven-play, 75-yard drive to extend the lead back to 16 points. The drive after Watson found Fuller for the long touchdown pass and get within six points, Smith again led the Chiefs down the field for a touchdown.


Kansas City was 9-of-16 on third down. The Chiefs finished with 450 total yards of offense and 29 first downs.


The Texans’ offense may be able to help out more this season in Watt’s absence, but the defense needs to find the same success it found in 2016 replacing Watt’s production and presence on the field if Houston wants to continue to contend in the AFC South.

 

[CNOTES]

Biggest NFL injuries of Week 5


Here are the most significant NFL injuries in Week 5:


Sunday




J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans: Watt suffered a left leg injury while trying to make a play on Alex Smith during the first quarter of Sunday night's game against the Chiefs, and remained on the ground while he was examined by Texans medical personnel. Eventually, Watt rose and made his way slowly to the sideline while attempting to keep weight off that leg. He then was carted off to the locker room for further evaluation. The team quickly announced that Watt was out for the remainder of the game, and he left the stadium in an ambulance. Later during the game, the Texans announced that Watt had sustained a tibial plateau fracture in his left leg, and he'll be out indefinitely.



Whitney Mercilus, LB, Houston Texans: Mercilus left the game during the Texans' first defensive series, and he was quickly ruled out for the rest of the game due to a chest injury.




Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: Kelce took a hard hit at the tail end of the second quarter and did not appear to start the second half. The Chiefs subsequently announced that Kelce was being evaluated for a concussion, and he did not return.




Steven Terrell, S, Kansas City Chiefs: Terrell was accidentally kicked in the head on the opening kickoff, and he was down for some time before walking off the field with some assistance. Shortly thereafter, he was ruled out of the game due to a concussion.


Bilal Powell, RB, New York Jets: Powell left the game during the second half and his return was deemed questionable because of a calf injury. After the game, Jets coach Todd Bowles said that Powell will have tests on his injured calf. This is troublesome, especially with fellow RB Matt Forte still dealing with turf toe.




Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants: Late in the fourth quarter, Beckham injured his left ankle after his lower left leg was pinned beneath a defender after attempting to catch a pass. After being attended to by Giants medical staff, Beckham was carted off the field. The receiver hurt his left ankle in the preseason, which caused him to miss the club's Week 1 game. He was quickly ruled out of the rest of the game. After the game, a source told ESPN's Jordan Ranaan that Beckham will need surgery, and ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that it was a fractured ankle.


Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions: Stafford walked gingerly out of the locker room late Sunday afternoon, clearly favoring his right leg -- walking with it almost peg-legged straight after Detroit's 27-24 loss to Carolina on Sunday, per ESPN's Michael Rothstein. Stafford received treatment after the game, but he declined to say when he injured his right leg and wouldn't say exactly what he injured, either.


Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Dallas Cowboys: Already pretty banged up on the defensive side of the ball, the Cowboys lost Awuzie during the game against Green Bay due to a hamstring injury.



Kevin King, CB, Green Bay Packers: The Packers' top draft pick this year (No. 33 overall), King was sidelined with a concussion during Sunday's game against Dallas and declared out for the remainder of the game. As with any such injury, he'll have to clear the league-mandated concussion protocol to return.




Terrance West, RB, Baltimore Ravens: West started the game well, rushing for 17 yards on two carries, but fell to the ground before reaching the sideline, clutching his left leg. He was helped off the field by trainers and carted to the locker room. West was designated as doubtful to return with a calf injury.




Matt Skura, OG, Baltimore Ravens: Skura, who has been filling in for injured starting guard Marshal Yanda, was declared questionable to return with a knee injury.



Haloti Ngata, DT, Detroit Lions: Ngata was ruled out of the rest of Sunday's game against Carolina with an elbow injury. The DT had been dealing with injuries the past two weeks, including getting his shoulder worked on during last week's win over Minnesota. He came off the field midway through the second quarter and soon made his way to the locker room for more testing. With Ngata out, the Lions leaned more on Akeem Spence and Jeremiah Ledbetter opposite A'Shawn Robinson.




DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins: Parker went to the locker room in the first quarter of the game with Dolphins training staff, and the team subsequently announced that he was questionable to return with an ankle injury before downgrading him to out in the second half. After the game, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the Dolphins believe Parker has a sprained ankle.




Lane Johnson, OT, Philadelphia Eagles: A head injury sidelined Johnson during the third quarter of Sunday's game, and he was quickly declared out by the team. Second-year player Halapoulivaati Vaitai replaced Johnson in the starting lineup. This puts Johnson's status for Thursday night's game at the Carolina Panthers in question. If it proves to be a concussion, there would be little time for him to pass the league-mandated protocol.




Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Giants: While attempting to come down with an Eli Manning throw during the second quarter, Marshall landed awkwardly and appeared to injure his ankle. He was carted off to the locker room for further evaluation. He was declared questionable to return before being ruled out. After the game, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Marshall sprained his ankle.




Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants: Shepard limped off the field during the second quarter, attempting to put minimal pressure on his left foot. Giants trainers attended to him on the sideline, but he did not return to the locker room. Like Marshall, he was declared questionable to return with an ankle injury; also like Marshall, he was later ruled out.



Dwayne Harris, WR, New York Giants: Harris left on a cart in the third quarter and was quickly ruled out for the rest of the game. While Harris is primarily a special-teams contributor, his injury left the Giants with two healthy wide receivers on the active roster. During the fourth quarter, the Giants announced that Harris suffered a fracture in his foot. Sunday night, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Harris will miss the rest of the season with the injury.




Adam Jones, CB, Cincinnati Bengals: A lower-back injury plagued Jones throughout the first half of Sunday's game, and eventually he departed for the locker room with Bengals training staff. He was originally deemed questionable to return before being downgraded to out.




Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Cincinnati Bengals: Kirkpatrick left the field in the first quarter and was attended to by the Bengals' training staff. The club originally indicated that he was questionable to return with a shoulder injury, but he was later downgraded to out.



Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo Bills: Clay was helped to the medical tent on the sideline with help from two trainers under each arm late in the first quarter and was subsequently carted off to the locker room. Clay caught a 24-yard pass from Tyrod Taylor and then took a hit to his left leg from Bengals safety Shawn Williams, causing Clay to fall over on the sideline in pain. He was originally declared questionable to return with a knee injury before being downgraded to out.




Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: Boyd was quickly declared out of Sunday's game against the Bills in the first quarter after limping off the field with a knee injury. Boyd was tackled near the sideline while trying to catch a short pass from Andy Dalton.




Leonard Johnson, CB, Buffalo Bills: Slot cornerback Johnson left the game against Cincinnati in the second quarter and was originally deemed questionable to return due to a hamstring injury before being downgraded to out.



Taylor Lewan, OT, Tennessee Titans: Already missing starting quarterback Marcus Mariota in Week 5, the Titans lost starting left tackle Lewan during the first quarter. The team indicated at the time that Lewan has a knee injury and was questionable to return, and Dennis Kelly took his place in the lineup. Shortly thereafter, Lewan returned to the field before leaving again in the second quarter. After the game, the team indicated that Lewan will undergo an MRI when they return to Nashville.




Aaron Brewer, LS, Arizona Cardinals: The rough start to Sunday's game against the Eagles was made worse as long-snapper Brewer departed for the locker room holding his left forearm with Arizona training staff. The Cardinals announced that he was doubtful to return, and he did not. After the game, the team announced that Brewer has a broken hand.




Vontaze Burfict, LB, Cincinnati Bengals: Burfict suffered a left thumb injury in the first quarter of the game against the Bills and was deemed probable to return. He made his return later in the first half.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Today, Week 5
October 8, 2017


Monday, Sept. 9


Minnesota at Chicago, 8:30 p.m. EDT. Mitchell Trubisky, the No. 2 overall draft pick this year, is set to make his NFL regular-season debut when he replaces the benched Mike Glennon for the Bears (1-3). The Vikings (2-2) will be without rookie running back Dalvin Cook, who was lost for the season last week when he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in last week's 14-7 loss to Detroit. Meanwhile, quarterback Sam Bradford is nearing a return after missing three straight games with a sore knee.


---


STARS


Passing


- Cam Newton, Panthers, went 26 of 33 for a season-high 335 yards and three touchdowns to lead Carolina to a 27-24 win at Detroit.


- Deshaun Watson, Texans, tossed five touchdown passes in a losing cause as Houston fell to Kansas City 42-34.


- Carson Wentz, Eagles, had a career-best four touchdown passes and finished 21 of 30 for 304 yards in Philadelphia's 34-7 victory over Arizona.


- Alex Smith, Chiefs, threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns to help Kansas City remain undefeated with a 42-34 win over Houston.


- Aaron Rodgers, Packers, threw a 12-yard touchdown pass to Davante Adams with 11 seconds remaining, finishing with three TD tosses while lifting Green Bay over Dallas 35-31.


- Philip Rivers, Chargers, had three touchdown throws in leading Los Angeles past the New York Giants 27-22.


- Brian Hoyer, 49ers, threw for 353 yards and two scores in a losing cause as San Francisco fell to Indianapolis 26-23 in overtime.


---


Rushing


- Leonard Fournette, Jaguars, ran for a career-high 181 yards and two touchdowns on 28 carries in Jacksonville's 30-9 rout of Pittsburgh.


- Aaron Jones, Packers, had 19 carries for 125 yards and a touchdown in his first start to help Green Bay top Dallas 35-31.


- Kareem Hunt, Chiefs, rushed for 107 yards on 29 carries and also caught two TD passes in Kansas City's 42-34 win at Houston.


- Melvin Gordon, Chargers, ran for 105 yards on 20 attempts in Los Angeles' 27-22 win over the New York Giants.


- Marlon Mack, Colts, had 91 yards and a TD on just nine carries in Indianapolis' 26-23 overtime win over San Francisco.


- Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, rushed for 116 yards on 29 attempts in Dallas' 35-31 loss to Green Bay.


---


Receiving

- A.J. Green, Bengals, caught seven passes for 189 yards, the third-highest total of his career, including a 77-yard TD and bounced back from contributing to three turnovers to help set up the winning score as Cincinnati topped Buffalo 20-16.


- DeAndre Hopkins, Texans, had three touchdown catches in Houston's 42-34 loss to Kansas City.


- T.Y. Hilton, Colts, had seven receptions for 177 yards in Indianapolis' 26-23 overtime win over San Francisco.


- Antonio Brown, Steelers, caught 10 passes for 157 yards in Pittsburgh's 30-9 loss to Jacksonville.


- Ed Dickson, Panthers, had five receptions for a career-high 175 yards - a total that surpassed his production from each of the previous three seasons with Carolina - in a 27-24 win at Detroit.


- Davante Adams, Packers, caught two touchdown passes in Green Bay's 35-31 victory at Dallas, including the 12-yard winner with 11 seconds left.


---

Special Teams


- Adam Vinatieri, Colts, booted four field goals - including a 51-yarder to win it in overtime - and made two extra points in Indianapolis' 26-23 victory over San Francisco.


- Chandler Catanzaro, Jets, kicked a franchise-record 57-yard field goal to end the first half of New York's 17-14 win at Cleveland.


- Patrick Robinson, Eagles, deflected Phil Dawson's 51-yard field goal attempt at the end of the first half of Philadelphia's 34-7 win over Arizona.


- Harrison Butker, Chiefs, kicked five goals - 35, 42, 41, 35 and 49 yards - in Kansas City's 42-34 win at Houston.


- Tyreek Hill, Chiefs, returned a punt 82 yards for a touchdown to help Kansas City to a 42-34 win at Houston.


- Kenjon Barner, Eagles, had a 76-yard punt return to set up Philadelphia's second TD in a 34-7 win over Arizona.


---


Defense

- Myles Garrett, Browns, had two sacks in his NFL debut - including one on the first play of his career - in Cleveland's 17-14 loss to the New York Jets.


- Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, Chargers, each had two sacks and both also forced a fumble in Los Angeles' 27-22 win over the New York Giants.


- Tashaun Gipson, Barry Church and Telvin Smith, Jaguars. Gipson had two interceptions in Jacksonville's 30-9 win at Pittsburgh, while Church and Smith returned picks for touchdowns.


- Jimmy Smith, Ravens, returned a fumble 47 yards for a TD in Baltimore's 30-17 victory at Oakland.


- Reshad Jones, Dolphins, had six tackles, a half-sack and two fumble recoveries, including one he returned 38 yards for a score in Miami's 16-10 win over Tennessee.


- Earl Thomas, Seahawks, forced two of the Rams' five turnovers in Seattle's 16-10 victory over the Los Angeles Rams.


---


STREAKS & STATS


Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald caught a pass for the 200th consecutive game, third-longest streak in NFL history. ... Cleveland defensive end Myles Garrett had two sacks against the New York Jets, becoming the first player selected No. 1 overall to have multiple sacks in his NFL debut since it became an official statistic in 1982. ... With its 26-23 overtime loss at Indianapolis, San Francisco became the first team since the 1994 Houston Oilers to lose four straight games by three or fewer points. ... The Jets' 17-14 victory at Cleveland marked the first time in his 15-year career that Josh McCown has won three straight starts. ... Houston's Deshaun Watson is the first rookie with four or more touchdown passes in back-to-back games since Washington's Robert Griffin III in 2012.


---


MILESTONES


At 22 years and 263 days old, Jacksonville's Leonard Fournette is the youngest player in NFL history with a touchdown run of at least 90 yards and is the fifth rookie to score at least one TD in each of his team's first five games of a season. ... Indianapolis' Adam Vinatieri kicked the winning 51-yard field goal in overtime in the Colts' 26-23 victory over San Francisco. He has 24 game-winning field goals in the regular season in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime and 10 game-winners in overtime - both the most in NFL history. Vinatieri became the third player to score 2,400 points and has 2,411, behind only Morten Andersen (2,544) and Gary Anderson (2,434). Vinatieri also has one more field goal made than Anderson (538) to move into second on the all-time list. ... The Colts' Frank Gore ran for 48 yards to surpass Eric Dickerson (13,259) and give him 13,304 for his career - seventh-most in NFL history.


---


STILL SEARCHING

San Francisco, Cleveland and the New York Giants are the only winless teams remaining, with all three sitting at 0-5. The 49ers fell 26-23 to Indianapolis in overtime, the Browns were edged by the Jets 17-4 and the Giants lost 27-22 to the Los Angeles Chargers.


---


CAM'S SHOUTOUT


Carolina's Cam Newton came under fire for making sexist comments to a female reporter during the week. He apologized after losing an endorsement deal and getting criticized by the NFL. The 2015 NFL MVP said after a 27-24 win at Detroit that he put Rosie the Riveter, flexing her right arm, on his hat after doing homework to learn her iconic impact on World War II. ''I just wanted to have a little notion, a shoutout, to all the strong women,'' Newton said.


---


PICKY PICKY

Jacksonville had five interceptions in its 30-9 victory at Pittsburgh, including returns for TDs by Telvin Smith (28 yards) and Barry Church (51). It marked the first time the Jaguars had two INTs returned for scores. Ben Roethlisberger's career-high five interceptions were the most by a Steelers quarterback since Mark Malone threw five against Cleveland in 1987.


---


BENCHED BROWN


After a shaky first half, rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer at halftime of Cleveland's 17-14 loss to the New York Jets. Kizer, who threw a costly pick as Cleveland's offense sputtered, was replaced by Kevin Hogan, who completed 16 of 19 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns.


---

PEYTON'S PLACE


One day after Peyton Manning's statue was unveiled outside Lucas Oil Stadium, the only five-time league MVP in league history finally got to thank Colts fans inside the stadium he helped build. And he did it by taking a snap from long-time center Jeff Saturday and throwing a pass that Reggie Wayne caught in the end zone. ''I thank God every day that I'm an Indianapolis Colt,'' Manning told the crowd at halftime of the Colts' 26-20 overtime win over San Francisco.


---

NO JOSHIN'


Josh McCown got some revenge on his former team by throwing two touchdown passes and leading the surprising New York Jets to a 17-14 win over the winless Cleveland Browns. McCown won only one game as a starter in two seasons with Cleveland, and that came in Baltimore. He went 0-7 at home for the Browns, who released him on Feb. 7 in a cost-cutting move.


---


COMEBACK KID


Davante Adams had been in the concussion protocol but was active for Green Bay just 10 days after leaving the field on a stretcher on a helmet-to-helmet hit that resulted in a suspension for Chicago linebacker Danny Trevathan. He had seven catches for 66 yards and two touchdowns - including the winning 12-yard score with 11 seconds left in the Packers' 35-31 victory at Dallas.


---

BIZARRE TD


Miami's Reshad Jones kept playing after everyone else stopped to give the Dolphins their first touchdown in a 16-10 win over Tennessee. Titans quarterback Matt Cassel fumbled with his arm cocked when hit by Kiko Alonso, and the ball squirted forward 14 yards. Jones scooped up the ball and ran uncontested to the end zone. Referee Bill Vinovich eventually announced that the loose ball was a fumble and Miami had scored. Following a replay review, the call was upheld, giving the Dolphins a 10-0 lead.


---


SIDELINED


Houston star J.J. Watt broke his left leg Sunday night against the Kansas City Chiefs. The team announced that he sustained a tibial plateau fracture. The defensive end was injured while being blocked midway through the first quarter of the Texans' 42-34 loss.

... New York Giants wide receivers Sterling Shepard and Brandon Marshall left on the same second-quarter series with sprained left ankles in a 27-22 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Dwayne Harris broke a foot on a kickoff return in the third quarter. Odell Beckham Jr. was the final one to go down, breaking his left ankle in the fourth quarter.


... Oakland also lost four players to injuries, with Marquel Lee (ankle), fullback Jamize Olawale (concussion), linebacker Corey James (knee) and cornerback Antonio Hamilton (knee) leaving their 30-17 defeat against Baltimore. ... Ravens running back Terrance West departed on the opening drive with a left calf injury following a 13-yard run and did not return. ... Green Bay's Jordy Nelson, who scored his sixth touchdown early in the fourth quarter, wasn't on the field during the Packers' final drive. Coach Mike McCarthy said he was being evaluated for an undisclosed injury.


---


SPEAKING


''It was a (butt) whooping, plain and simple.'' - Steelers wide receiver Martavis Bryant after Pittsburgh was routed at home by Jacksonville, 30-9 on Sunday.


---


''I did a great job watching the Bruce Lee movies, and it kind of carried over to the football field.'' - Seattle's Earl Thomas on his martial arts-style chop to the arm of Rams running back Todd Gurley, knocking the ball out for a touchback in the Seahawks' 16-10 win.


---


''It took me three years and two teams, but dang gummit, I got me a win at FirstEnergy Stadium.'' - Jets quarterback Josh McCown, who was released by the Browns in February after two seasons and led New York to a 17-14 win at Cleveland on Sunday.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL roundup: Vinatieri gives Colts OT win vs. 49ers
October 8, 2017


INDIANAPOLIS -- Adam Vinatieri kicked four field goals, including a 51-yarder with 1:38 remaining in overtime to give the Indianapolis Colts a 26-23 victory against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday in Lucas Oil Stadium.


Vinatieri also kicked field goals of 52, 23 and 38 yards, helping the Colts (2-3) build a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead. Those kicks capped drives of 41, 72 and 30 yards. The 49ers got 28, 43 and 40-yard field goals from Robbie Gould.


The kick left San Francisco (0-5) as one of three remaining winless teams in the NFL.


Packers 35, Cowboys 31

ARLINGTON, Texas -- Aaron Rodgers tossed a 12-yard touchdown pass to Davante Adams with 11 seconds remaining to lift the Green Bay over Dallas. Rodgers threw for 221 yards and three scores.


The Packers eliminated Dallas from the playoffs on the same field in January when Rodgers converted a key third-and-20 play in the closing seconds and kicker Mason Crosby nailed a 51-yard field goal as time expired. Green Bay (4-1) returned to do it twice in a year, dropping the Cowboys to 2-3 on the season.


Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott completed 25 of 36 passes for 251 yards and three touchdowns, and Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 116 yards, but it wasn't enough in the loss.


Ravens 30, Raiders 17


OAKLAND, Calif. -- Joe Flacco passed for 222 yards, Mike Wallace caught three passes for 133 yards, and Baltimore ended a two-game losing streak with a victory over Oakland.


Cornerback Jimmy Smith scored on a 47-yard fumble return in the first quarter for the Ravens (3-2).


The Raiders (2-3) lost their third straight game and played without quarterback Derek Carr, who broke a small bone in his back in the previous game. His backup, EJ Manuel, completed 13 of 26 passes for 159 yards and one touchdown. Michael Crabtree caught six passes for 82 yards and a touchdown.


Seahawks 16, Rams 10


LOS ANGELES -- Seattle slowed Los Angeles' league-leading offense.


Seattle (3-2), in winning for the third time in four games, pulled even with the Rams (3-2) in the NFC West. L.A. had five turnovers and was 0-for-4 in the red zone as the Seahawks reeled off 16 unanswered points. Brian Walsh's 35-yard field goal capped the scoring with a minute left.


Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson was 24 of 37 for 198 yards with a touchdown and an interception while his Rams counterpart Jared Goff completed 22 of 47 passes for 288 yards with two interceptions.

Bengals 20, Bills 16


CINCINNATI -- Andy Dalton passed for 328 yards, and A.J. Green had 189 receiving yards and a touchdown, lifting Cincinnati to a victory over Buffalo.


Tyrod Taylor was 22 of 36 for 166 yards with a touchdown and an interception for Buffalo (3-2), which missed a chance to go 4-1 for the first time since 2011.


Cincinnati (2-3) was the first team this season to score more than 17 points against the Bills. The Bengals sacked Taylor six times.


Panthers 27, Lions 24


DETROIT -- Cam Newton completed 26 of 33 passes for 355 yards and three touchdowns to help Carolina earn a win over Detroit.


Matthew Stafford went 23 of 35 for 229 yards and two touchdowns in defeat for the Lions (3-2), who lost for the second time at home this season.


Stafford was sacked six times by the Carolina defense, and the Lions were stagnant on offense until a fourth-quarter rally that was too little, too late.


Chargers 27, Giants 22


EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- Philip Rivers threw three touchdown passes, two of which came in the second half and one of which brought his team back from behind, to lead Los Angeles over New York.


The Giants (0-5) jumped out to a 9-0 first-quarter lead, which included their first points scored on offense in the first quarter this season. The Chargers (1-4) got 105 yards from Melvin Gordon on 20 carries.


The Giants lost four receivers to injuries, the most serious of which was to Odell Beckham, Jr., who appeared to get his left ankle twisted underneath him after making a catch late in the fourth quarter. Beckham had to be carted off the field with a broken ankle. Sterling Shepard and Brandon Marshall both sustained ankle injuries in the second quarter, and Dwayne Harris broke his foot in the third quarter.


Jets 17, Browns 14


CLEVELAND -- Josh McCown threw two touchdown passes in the second half, and New York beat Cleveland.


Kevin Hogan, who replaced DeShone Kizer at quarterback after halftime, gave the Browns (0-5) their first lead of the season on a 21-yard touchdown pass to rookie David Njoku with 9:23 left in the third quarter. Hogan finished 16 of 19 for 192 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Kizer was 8 of 17 for 87 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.


The Jets (3-2) regained the lead, 10-7, before the quarter ended when they cashed in an interception by cornerback Morris Claiborne, who returned the ball 28 yards to the Browns 13. Two plays later, McCown tossed a 2-yard touchdown pass to Austin Seferian-Jenkins. McCown was 23 of 30 for 194 yards, two touchdowns and one pick.


Dolphins 16, Titans 10


MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. -- Jarvis Landry scored the go-ahead touchdown with 10:33 left in the fourth quarter to lead Miami over Tennessee.


Dolphins safety Reshad Jones recovered two fumbles, scored one touchdown and added a sack that nearly went for a safety. The Miami defense had six sacks.


Landry caught his touchdown pass, a 6-yarder, in the end zone on a pass from Jay Cutler as the Dolphins (2-2) won despite a lackluster offensive performance. Cutler finished 12 of 26 for 92 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Matt Cassel was 21 of 32 for 141 yards and a score for the Titans (2-3).

Eagles 34, Cardinals 7


PHILADELPHIA -- Carson Wentz threw a career-high four touchdown passes as Philadelphia rolled to its third straight win with a defeat of Arizona.


Wentz was 21 of 30 for 304 yards, four touchdowns and one interception for the Eagles (4-1).


Carson Palmer was 28 of 44 for 291 yards and one touchdown for the Cardinals (2-3). All-Pro wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald had six catches for 51 yards, though some of the yardage came late in the game. Fitzgerald became the third player in NFL history to catch a pass in 200 consecutive games. Jerry Rice (274) and Tony Gonzalez (211) are the others.


Jaguars 30, Steelers 9

PITTSBURGH -- Ben Roethlisberger turned in his worst home performance in more than 11 years as Jacksonville intercepted five passes in a win over Pittsburgh.


The Jaguars returned two of Roethlisberger's interceptions for touchdowns on back-to-back Steelers possessions in the third quarter.


Jacksonville's Blake Bortles passed for only 95 yards but running back Leonard Fournette finished with 181 yards on 28 carries after breaking free for a 90-yard touchdown run with 1:47 left.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Record For Sept......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )


Totals...................41 - 30 - 1...........57.74%...........+ 40.00


Best Bets:


Best Bets Total.............7 - 6......+2.00............7 - 7.........- 3.50................- 1.50




Dog Of The Month........1 - 0


Total Of the Day...........1 - 0




*******************************


NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )


10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00


Totals............19 - 23 - 1....45.23%....-31.50




Best Bets:...................ATS...................Units........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total


10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50


10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00


10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50


10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00


Totals.........................8 - 7 - 1............+ 1.50...........5 - 7............-13.50................-12.00


Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 2.................................-10.00

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Vikings at Bears
October 8, 2017


LAST WEEK


The Vikings (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) have alternated wins and losses throughout their first four games of the season. Minnesota experienced its first home loss following victories over New Orleans and Tampa Bay as the Vikings were tripped up by the Lions last Sunday, 14-7 as 2 ½-point favorites.


Quarterback Sam Bradford remained sidelined with a left knee injury as Case Keenum couldn’t capitalize off a career-day in a 369-yard, three-touchdown effort against Tampa Bay in Week 3. The Lions’ defense limited Keenum to 219 yards, while Minnesota held the ball for only 23:33 as the Vikings lost for the third straight time to the Lions.


Minnesota suffered a huge blow to its backfield as second-round pick Dalvin Cook tore his ACL and is out for the remainder of the season. The former Florida State standout scored Minnesota’s lone touchdown against Detroit, while racking up 444 yards and two scores in his first four games. The Vikings are receiving consistency from their top wideout as Stefon Diggs broke the 90-yard mark for the third time this season by hauling in five receptions for 98 yards.


The Bears (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) put up their second dud performance away from Soldier Field this season as Green Bay blew out Chicago in Week 4 by a 35-14 count. A brief weather delay couldn’t slow down the Packers’ offense as Aaron Rodgers torched the Chicago defense for four touchdown passes.


Mike Glennon had his final opportunity to retain the starting quarterback job in Chicago, but the former Buccaneer was intercepted twice and lost two fumbles. Chicago dropped to 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS in its past 10 road games since the start of the 2016 season, while scoring 17 points or less in nine of those contests.


OUT OF HIBERNATION


With Glennon’s struggles, head coach John Fox decided to pull the plug on the free agent signing and start top draft pick Mitchell Trubisky. The former North Carolina Tar Heel will get the Monday night spotlight for his first career start after completing 68% of his passes and throwing for three touchdowns in the preseason. Chicago can use a jolt on offense as the Bears are averaging 306 yards per game, while putting up 188.8 yards per game passing, which ranks 27th in the league heading into Week 5.

PURPLE PAIN


After starting last season with victories at Tennessee and Carolina, the Vikings have been a disaster on the road. Minnesota has dropped six of its past seven away contests, while covering only once, coming in a 25-16 triumph at Jacksonville last December. The Vikings lost all three road games inside the NFC North last season, which is in stark contrast to 2015, when Minnesota defeated all three division rivals on the highway.


SERIES HISTORY


The home teams won each matchup last season, as Chicago knocked off Minnesota in a Monday night affair, 20-10 as 5 ½-point underdogs. The Vikings had lost the previous week at Philadelphia for their first defeat of the season following a 5-0 start, as Minnesota didn’t score its first touchdown until the fourth quarter after falling behind, 20-3. Soldier Field has been the house of horrors for the Vikings, losing eight of the last visits to the Windy City, including a 1-3 ATS mark as a road favorite in this span. The home team has owned this series the last five seasons, going 9-1, including Minnesota’s 38-10 rout of Chicago in the 2017 season finale.


MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS


The favorites have fared well on Mondays this season by compiling a 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS record. Minnesota looks to keep that trend going although the Vikings have struggled in the Monday night spotlight by posting a dreadful 1-7 SU/ATS record since 2009. Six of those defeats came on the road, while twice losing at Soldier Field. Meanwhile, the Bears have dominated on Mondays, going 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS in their last 14 opportunities dating back to 2009, including eight outright victories in the underdog role.


HANDICAPPER’S CORNER


VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson points out that the Bears are a different team when playing at home, “The Bears are 1-3 and Glennon has five interceptions this season as he has completed over 66 percent of his passes and Chicago nearly had an upset over Atlanta in Week 1 that would have the team sitting at 2-2. The lone win came against a formidable Pittsburgh team and the Bears have been impressive in both home games against quality teams.”


On the Vikings’ side, quarterback play hasn’t been the issue in spite of the 2-2 start, “There is some optimism that Bradford could return for the Vikings this week after sitting out the past three games following a great opening week performance. His knee pain persists, but the hope is that it will be manageable. Keenum has played well, yet to throw an interception and currently the #2 ranked player in Total QBR, just ahead of Tom Brady and Matt Ryan while 11th in the league in QB Rating.”


Handicapper Vince Akins provides a strong trend that fades Chicago. “The Bears are 0-15 ATS since December 2011 at home after a game in which they had a rushing touchdown and did not win by 24-plus points.” Last season, Chicago posted an 0-3 SU/ATS record in this situation, which included a home Monday night loss to Philadelphia.


BOOKMAKER’S TAKE


Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu says the money is currently riding on the road team, “Sharp money has slowly moved this number north as we are currently dealing the key number of -3. At this point, we're expecting Bradford to be under center for the Vikings, and that will likely prompt the play button for the public on that side. Right now, we have 70 percent of the tickets and 72 percent of the money on Minnesota.”