Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

NFL opening line report: Cowboys open as home faves in Week 5
Patrick Everson


“Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”


Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)


Through the first four weeks of the season, Dallas still can’t seem to find the form it had during a 13-3 SU regular season in 2016. On Sunday, the Cowboys (2-2 SU and ATS) were in a dogfight throughout with the Los Angeles Rams and ultimately fell short 35-30 as a 5-point home favorite.


Green Bay got through the first month at 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS), with the only loss coming at defending NFC champion Atlanta. Last week in the Thursday nighter, the Packers bounced the Bears 35-14 as a 7.5-point chalk.


“This rivalry has renewed in great fashion the last few years, and this game will easily be our biggest handle of the season from a public perspective,” Cooley said of this 4:25 p.m. ET clash on Sunday. “Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”


New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)


Much like Dallas, New England was dealt a stunning home loss in Week 4 and has now lost two of its three home games this season. The Patriots (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tumbled to Carolina 33-30 as a 9-point fave, and now hit the road on a short week, playing in the Thursday night game.


Tampa Bay (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got a Nick Folk 34-yard field goal as time expired to edge the New York Giants 25-23, but the Bucs fell a tick short of covering as 2.5-point chalk Sunday.


“We’re expecting this number to inflate with the Patriots coming off a loss. But it’s doubtful it will grow to -5, and unlikely it will drop below -4,” Cooley said. “Our team was pretty consistent on this number and it feels right. Squares will think this is a steal spread, backing the Pats.”


As Cooley predicted, the number did bump up a tick later Sunday night, to Patriots -4.5.


Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)


Philadelphia is looking solid through four weeks, having already posted a pair of road victories. On Sunday at San Diego, the Eagles (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) held on for a 26-24 win as a 2-point underdog.


Arizona (2-2 SU) hasn’t covered in any of its four games this season. The Cardinals needed overtime Sunday in an offensive slog against San Francisco, winning 18-15 laying 6 points at home.


“My best guess is that this will climb a bit on the favorite side,” Cooley said. “Arizona is just not a good team, while we’ve been quite impressed with the Eagles, particularly in their road victories against decent competition. Some of our oddsmakers wanted this at -7.”


By late Sunday night, it was already trending that way, with Bookmaker.eu moving the Eagles to -6.5.


Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (no line)


Los Angeles is arguably one of the biggest surprises so far this season, getting out of the box 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) while piling up a ton of points. The Rams went into Dallas on Sunday as a 5-point pup, but came away with a 35-30 victory, getting six field goals from Greg Zuerlein.


Seattle finally showed signs of life on offense in the second half of the Week 4 Sunday night game. The Seahawks (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) scored 36 points over the final two frames against Indianapolis, rolling to a 46-18 victory laying 12.5 points at home. With Seattle in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu is waiting until Monday to post the line on Seahawks-Rams.


“Depending on how the Sunday night game goes, we’ll likely open Seattle as short chalk on the road,” Cooley said. “The Rams have surprised most, and the Seahawks haven’t exactly impressed in the early goings (prior to Sunday). That said, the public won’t think twice about backing the ‘Hawks at a favorable number.

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 4
October 2, 2017


Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 4 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 6-9


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 5-10


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-7


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Panthers (+9.5, ML +400) at Patriots, 33-30
Bills (+8, ML +330) at Falcons, 23-17
Rams (+5.5, ML +210) at Cowboys, 35-30
Jets (+4, ML +175) vs. Jaguars, 23-20

The largest favorite to cover
Seahawks (-12.5) vs. Colts, 46-18
Packers (-7) vs. Bears, 35-14
Saints (-4) vs. Dolphins, 20-0
Bengals (-3.5) at Browns, 31-7
Broncos (-3.5) vs. Raiders, 16-10
Steelers (-3.5) at Ravens, 26-9


Paying The Bills


-- The Buffalo Bills picked up a road win against the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons, 23-17. The Bills were aided by the early exits of WRs Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, but it was their defense with another strong effort either way. Buffalo has allowed just 13.5 PPG over their first four games, and they're an impressive 4-0 ATS so far. In addition, total bettors have hit the 'under' in three of their four outings. They'll look to keep it rolling on the road in Week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals.


Ram It

-- The Los Angeles Rams posted an impressive 35-30 victory on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. The Rams have struggled defensively, yielding an average of 32.0 PPG over the past three outings, but they have still won each of their past two road outings. The 'over' is also 4-0 this season, but that streak will be put to the test when the Seattle Seahawks pay a visit to L.A. in Week 5. The Rams are also 3-1 ATS overall this season, including covers in each of their two road contests.
Total Recall


-- Sunday Night Football looked like it was going to be a defensive battle in the first quarter, but then the floodgates opened. Indianapolis-Seattle (41.5). The Colts surprised with a 15-10 lead at halftime, and then the Seahawks rolled to 22 points in the third quarter to push the total over after 45 minutes. It seems like old time, as the prime time games this week have each smashed the 'over'.

-- The lowest total on the board -- Jacksonville-N.Y. Jets (38.5) ended up needing overtime, tied 20-20 after regulation. More importantly, the game hit the 'over'. The two games with the second-lowest line (41.5), Indy-Seattle and Cincinnati-Cleveland split the over/under. Five teams ended up with 10 points or less this week, including a shutout in the New Orleans-Miami (52) battle in London.


-- The N.Y. Giants-Tampa Bay (45.5) game looked to be in good shape for 'under' bettors initially. A torrential downpour was the scene at the beginning of the late-afternoon kick at Raymond James Stadium, but it didn't stop the Bucs from getting out to a 13-0 lead after 15 minutes. The scoring actually settled down in the second half, and was aided by the poor kicking of Nick Folk. The veteran kicker missed two field goals and an extra point earlier in the game, so naturally the outcome of the game came down to his foot. He banged home a 34-yard field goal to give the Bucs a 25-23 win, but it also changed the result of the total for most bettors from under to over.

-- The 'Over' is 7-6 through the first 13 primetime games of the 2017 season, with Monday's game between the Washington Redskins-Kansas City Chiefs still pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Falcons WRs Julio Jones (hip) and Mohamed Sanu (hamstring) each checked out of the Week 4 game against the Bills early and they were unable to return.


-- Raiders QB Derek Carr (back) took a knee to the back in the second half of the game against the Raiders and the initial diagnosis after the outing was that the star quarterback was dealing with back spasms.

-- Titans QB Marcus Mariota (hamstring) was forced out of Sunday's lopsided loss against the Texans due to a hamstring injury. He'll underdog an MRI on Monday.


-- Vikings RB Dalvin Cook (knee) is believed to have suffered a torn anterior cruciate injury against the Lions after a non-contact injury.


Looking Ahead

-- The surprising Rams will host the Seahawks, looking to stay hot against the number. Seattle opened as a 2 1/2-point favorite, which will make the Rams an attractive play if you believe in trends. The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their past five road games against the Rams, while going 3-7 ATS in the past 10 overall in this series. The underdog is also 10-4 ATS in the past 14 meetings, with the home team cashing in seven of the past eight in this series. While the 'over' is 4-0 for LAR so far this season, the 'under' is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings in this series.


-- The Packers and Cowboys renew their rivalry in Dallas in the late-afternoon nationally televised game. The Packers have owned the series lately, at least against the number, going 5-2 ATS in the past meetings. However, Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to the Metroplex, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The underdog is also 4-1 ATS in the past five in the series, while the 'over' has cashed in each of the past four battles.


-- The Vikings and Bears will do battle on Monday Night Football at Soldier Field. The Vikings haven't done very well on MNF in recent seasons, going 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games on Monday, while also struggling outdoors. They're just 1-5 ATS in their past six on a grass surface. The Bears have covered six of their past seven at home, while going 5-2 ATS in their past seven showings on MNF. The Vikings have cashed in just three of their past 14 trips to Chicago, while the home team is 21-8 ATS in the past 29 in the series. The under is also 4-1 in the past five meetings, while going 8-3 in the past 11 overall in the series.

 

[CNOTES]

Books win another Sunday
October 2, 2017


One week after the betting public got buried by selecting so many NFL favorites, they got treated to a little bit of the same in Week 4 action with seven underdogs winning outright. However, the story is a little this time around.


"When people see seven underdogs winning outright they automatically think the books had a great day, but it wasn't anything like last week," said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "It was a good day, but we still lost large amount to the Steelers, Bengals, Saints, Lions and Broncos. We also lost to the Jets, a game the sharps loved but the public stayed away from. There were a lot of hidden losses in between."


However, there were still more wins than losses and most the books came out ahead despite the Seahawks (-12.5) rolling to a 48-16 win in the Sunday night game over the Colts.


"It was an okay day," said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood. "Sharps are having a good day and the public is getting beat up a little bit. We had some house players do well on their games, one of them rolled over their Denver winnings to Seattle."


Rood said the initial bet on Denver was more than $100,000.


"Our best game was Atlanta losing just because it beat out all the large money-line parlays and teasers," said Rood. "We didn't have a lot of takers on the Bills. We had +330 on the Bills money-line and only had $1,000 total bet on it between 19 tickets. The Patriots losing was good for us, but it was tied to Atlanta on lots of plays."


The Falcons (-9) lost their two starting WRs during the game which aided in the Bills' 23-17 road win. Tom Brady erased 14-point deficit to tie the Panthers 30-30, but the Patriots woeful defense couldn't stop the Panthers from driving and kicking a game winning field goal. The Bills are now in first-place at 3-1 in the AFC East, a division the Patriots have won the past eight years.


"Denver was one of the worst losses of the day," said Kornegay of the Broncos 16-10 win over the Raiders. "There should be some concern about the Raiders offense, and that was even before Derek Carr got hurt. They don't have a running game and then you have Amari Cooper dropping easy catches everywhere and then they had no Michael Crabtree. It was a limited offensive attack. But in the end, they were right there and couldn't have taken the lead if Jared Cook makes that late catch in the end zone. This is a problem for Denver, the falling apart late, in three of their games when they seemed to have things in control."


One of the negative effects of the public losing last week is that some people just didn't have the liquid funds to ante up.


"Handle was off this week compared to last week, as well as the win,' said Rood. "We're about one-third of what we did last Sunday (win) heading into the late game."

 

[CNOTES]

Monday's Best Bet
September 29, 2017


Monday Night Football Preview (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs


The Washington Redskins get to play under the bright lights of a primetime game for the second week in a row, and just like every other game for Washington this year, they enter as underdogs.


On SNF last week, the Redskins obliterated the Oakland Raiders from start to finish, and now they get to deal with another AFC West foe in the Kansas City Chiefs.


Kansas City is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL entering Week 4, as as touchdown home favorites for MNF, oddsmakers like their chances of pushing that record to 4-0 SU.


Bookmaker.eu Odds: Kansas City (-7); Total set at 49.5


Kansas City hasn't quite looked as good as they did in their opening week win over New England, but they are doing enough to get the job done. Aside from a brief stretch in the 2nd half against Philadelphia in Week 2, KC has reverted back to the dink-and-dunk, ball control team we've come to expect from them the past few years, getting outgained in total yards the last two weeks but still coming out ahead.


Last week against the Chargers, Kansas City really didn't have to open things up offensively as they played with the lead the entire way, but as we've seen from them in years past, that style of play isn't always conducive to the best results, especially against the spread.


Given the manner Washington dominated the Raiders a week ago, the Redskins are likely to garner some support at this +7 number. A fourth straight game as an underdog – with a 2-1 SU record – suggests that the Redskins are either playing above their head right now, or the overall market isn't nearly as high as they should be on this team.


Obviously, scheduling has a bit to do with the spreads they've been saddled with, but I'd lean towards the side of this team continually being undervalued by the masses. I'll let you all make that decision for yourselves though for this game as it's not the side I'm looking to bet – although gun to my head I would take the points.


This total of 49.5 is the number I'm looking to attack as much of the early week action believes this total is well too high. Given the Chiefs unwillingness to stretch the field like they did in Week 1, and the way Washington's defense suffocated Derek Carr and the Raiders offense last week, I can see why that perspective would be popular as a first reaction.


However, I'm not so sure Kansas City won't be forced to open things up in the passing game like they were in the 2nd half of their game against Philly a few weeks back. It's rare that the Chiefs first two home games of 2017 would be against non-conference rivals, but we've already seen Philadelphia and Washington play this year and they are built in a similar fashion. Both have prototypical pocket-passing QB's under center who aren't afraid to take shots to blow the top off a defense.


We have yet to really see that from Washington this year because they've been getting consistent production on the ground, but teams can pass on the Chiefs now that Eric Berry is out, as they've been outgained through the air by 60+ yards the last two weeks. Washington QB Kirk Cousins has enough receivers at his disposal to put on an air show in this game, and if he's got any level of success in doing that, Kansas City will have no choice but to get more aggressive and open things up offensively like they did against the Patriots.


So even with all the grumblings that this total is too high and the 'under' is the way to go, we've got to remember that the Chiefs are actually 2-1 O/U this year against the closing number. They've yet to ever really play from behind since Week 1, but this game against a Redskins team glowing with confidence right now is one where the Chiefs could face a multi-score deficit once again.


Opening things up isn't exactly a bad option for the Chiefs either with the likes of Tyreek Hill and his speed on their roster, and wouldn't you love to see an impromptu head-to-head battle between Hill and Washington's Terrelle Pryor as to who could catch the most deep passes here?


But when it comes down to it, this total is the highest on the board this week (outside of the New Orleans/Miami game in London) for a reason.


We've got two of the fastest receivers in the league here, two QB's who love to take shots downfield when the coaches let them go, and an AFC/NFC game that typically are ones where you want to look to the high side of the number.


Washington is 6-0 O/U in their last six on the road, 7-1 O/U after a win of 14+ points, 6-0 O/U after allowing a sub-90 yard rushing performance, 7-3 O/U in their last 10 against a team with a winning record, and 14-2 O/U after passing for 250+ yards.


It will be Cousins early on who feels like he'll have to take some shots downfield as the underdog – very similar to Alex Smith's mindset and gameplan vs. New England Week 1 – and when he ends up connecting on a few and putting up points, Andy Reid and the rest of KC's offensive coaching staff will have no choice but to turn their guys loose.


Odds per - Bookmaker.eu


Best Bet: Over 49.5 points

 

[CNOTES]

Opening Line Report - Week 5
October 2, 2017


The Patriots appear to have some issues. Giving up 456.8 yards per game, their defense is ranked dead last in the NFL by a wide margin. Also, Tom Brady has been sacked 13 times this season. The huge Super Bowl favorites coming into the season are just 2-2 and looking ordinary.


“Carolina’s offense before (Sunday’s 33-30 win at New England) has been very underwhelming, plus they were banged up, and they were basically able to move the ball at will, Cam Newton looked like the MVP and Jonathan Stewart looked like he was 25-years-old again,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology. “They couldn’t move the ball at home at all against the Bills and Saints, now they go on the road and move the ball like that?”


Nevertheless, for the Week 5 Thursday night game at the Buccaneers, the Pats were bet from an opening line of -4 to -5.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. The total opened 54 at CG Technology.


“The Patriots still take money every weekend. In the future book, someone made a decent five-figure bet on the Patriots at 4/1 to win the Super Bowl this week, so people are happy to bet them,” said SuperBook manager Ed Salmons. “But I don’t think the Patriots are even close to being the best team (in the league). I don’t think there’s a clear best team right now, that’s pretty obvious.”


Asked if he has long-term concerns about New England, Simbal responded, “Yes, for the first time I can remember.”


Here’s a look at the rest of the NFL Week 5 card:


Sunday, October 8


Los Angeles Chargers and New York Giants (-4, 44.5)


The Westgate opened the Giants -4.5 while William Hill opened -3.5, and the two sports books met halfway at -4 for this matchup of winless teams. As of Monday morning in Las Vegas, the Chargers were available at +4.5 at a few shops for gamblers interested in the underdog.


Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 38.5)


The Bills were adjusted from +3.5 to +3 in the first 20 minutes of wagering Sunday night at the Westgate, with other sports books falling in line at the shorter number. Based on the way their defense has been playing, the move toward the Bills makes sense. At 13.5 points allowed per game, Buffalo is No. 1 in the NFL, and they’ve put together back-to-back wins against top-level competition – home vs. Denver and at Atlanta.


While neither bookmaker we spoke to sees Buffalo as a factor in the playoffs, they’re both impressed by the Bills and envision an eight- or nine-win season in Sean McDermott’s first year as head coach.


“I’m starting to believe in them, they’re defense is definitely legit,” Salmons said. “They’re defense has played amazing. They were fortunate with Julio Jones leaving the game in the first half (of Sunday’s 23-17 win), but they really controlled Atlanta.”


Added Simbal, “They’re opening some nice holes for (LeSean) McCoy. McCoy is still one of the best four or five backs in the league, maybe even top three. Also, Tyrod Taylor makes enough plays with his legs to keep drives alive, but their defense is so good, they don’t need to score that much. If they get to 23, 24 points, like they did (Sunday), then they have a shot. They held the Falcons to 17 points in (Atlanta) – that’s pretty tough to do.”


New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 39)


Cleveland opened as low as -1.5, and anything south of -3 indicates the Jets are rated higher than the Browns in the eyes of the betting market. That wasn’t the case coming into the season, as the Jets’ futures odds were historically high (as an example, they were 200/1 to win their division; the next biggest divisional longshot was Cleveland at 25/1 in the AFC North).


The Jets, though, have won two straight games, and the Browns remain winless after the 31-7 drubbing they took at home against Cincinnati.


“If (Jets-Browns) was played a week ago, (the line) would have been more,” Salmons said. “It’s just that the Jets won (Sunday) and Cleveland lost so badly, so they tried to play the line lower. I wouldn’t be surprised if that line went up just because Cleveland needs to win a game, for crying out loud. Their effort today was just a joke.”


Meanwhile, since the Jets seemed to have made moves this offseason to position themselves for a higher pick in the 2018 draft, Salmons said, “It kind of says where the league is right now, where there’s a team that’s trying to lose but they’re winning.”


Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9, 44.5)


The Steelers were bet from -8.5 to -9 at the Westgate and opened -9.5 at Coasts, as the Jags continue a brutal travel schedule – their game in London against the Ravens has been followed by road trips to New York and Pittsburgh.


Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins


The Titans are looking at the possibility of having to start Matt Cassel at quarterback as Marcus Mariota’s hamstring heals.


San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5,43)


Andrew Luck remains out for the 1-3 Colts. The 49ers remain winless.


Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45)


The point-spread indicates the betting market believes Philly is the significantly better club in this matchup, but there’s also an NFL handicapping axiom at work here: West Coast teams have difficulty playing at 1:000 p.m. on the East Coast.


“There are certain spots in this league that are just terrible spots,” Salmons said. “Arizona played the late game (Sunday), and they have to travel and play the ten o’clock game on the East Coast. They essentially played a five-quarter game (they beat the 49ers 18-15 in overtime). Even though Philadelphia played on the West Coast as well today, it’s just such a hard thing for the West Coast team to have to travel and then play at 10:00 a.m. PT. That spread is always inflated because of that.”


Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-3/-120, 44)


This NFC matchup features two 3-1 teams, one of which could easily be 4-0 – the Lions were incredibly unfortunate to lose at home to Atlanta in Week 3.


To Salmons, the Lions have been the best team in the NFC this season, but he’s dubious on their long-term prospects.


“It’s Detroit. It seems like they always start our decently,” Salmons said.


Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 46)


The Westgate opened this game pick ‘em Sunday night, but reposted it Rams -2.5 on Monday morning. If the spread holds, it will mark the first time the Rams have been favored over the Seahawks since the 2011 season.


Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (-5.5)


Derek Carr sustained a back injury Sunday in Denver, and his status is uncertain for next week. But with the way the Ravens have been playing, the Raiders may be just fine without him.


“Baltimore is horrible,” Simbal said. “Pittsburgh was not good (even though they beat the Ravens 26-9 in Baltimore on Sunday). The Ravens have no offense, none, and that’s two weeks in a row now.”


Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 52.5)


The Packers are dealing with a multitude of injuries but have a few extra days to get healthy for next week’s showdown in Dallas. The Cowboys, meanwhile, haven’t impressed the bookmakers in Las Vegas.


“I thought before the season they’d have a hard time getting over their win total (9.5). I thought they were a little overvalued, and after watching them, they’re definitely a lot overvalued,” Salmons said. “Right now, you could argue Philadelphia is better than Dallas.”


The Cowboys let a 24-13 lead over the Rams slip away Sunday and ended up losing the game, 35-30.


“I don’t like Dallas right now, I don’t like their defense,” Salmons continued. “Last year was fine when they were playing with the lead and (Dak) Prescott could pass at his own doing. When they’re behind and having to throw all the time, they’re a different team. They couldn’t get the Rams off the field in the second half.”


The injury to linebacker Sean Lee looms large, according to Simbal.


“The D can’t get a stop when they need to, and if Sean Lee’s going to miss a considerable amount of time, they’re gonna be in trouble,” he said.


On the other side of Sunday’s marquee matchup, the Packers are the class of the NFC when they’re healthy, Simbal and his bookmaking colleagues believe.


Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) at Houston Texans


The Texans were big underdogs at home against Tennessee in Week 4 (+2.5) than they opened against Kansas City in Week 5. Of course, Houston’s 57-point outburst behind a marvelous day by Deshaun Watson got people’s attention.


“I’m not saying Deshaun Watson is MVP, but he’s got to be the best quarterback they’ve had in five or six years,” Simbal said. “That’s a perennial playoff team on the strength of their D and you know the skill players are there, so if Deshaun Watson is legit, they could end up being a contender.”


Added Salmons, “Houston’s always been a team where you’d say, ‘If they could score, they’d be a championship team,.’ But you watch (Brock) Osweiler back there and then (Tom) Savage, it was just helpless on offense. Each game Watson looks better and better and better. … You have to be impressed with what you saw out of Houston (Sunday). They look like a team you have to take seriously now.”


Monday, October 9


Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Chicago Bears


While Sam Bradford tries to makes his way back for the Vikings, quarterback Mitch Trubisky will get his first start for the Bears.

 

[CNOTES]

Trends To Watch - October
October 1, 2017


Courtesy of the 2017 PLAYBOOK magazine and the well-oiled machine (aka our sports database), here are the best and worst situational roles for NFL teams during the month of October.


HOME TEAMS


Good: If there is one place you don't want to play in October, it is Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 36-16 ATS and Jacksonville (10/8) and Cincinnati (10/22) are the next two potential victims.

Keep an eye on (Good): As bad as Cleveland has been recently, they have been a solid wager at home with a 19-12 ATS record. The Browns will have three chances to improve that mark facing Cincinnati (10/1), the New York Jets (10/8) and Tennessee (10/22).

Keep an eye on (Bad): In the southern part of Ohio, the Bengals are the opposite of their rivals from north at 19-29 ATS at home and they will have Buffalo (10/8) and Indianapolis (10/29) in the Queen City.


Jacksonville has just one home contest this month and that is against the L.A. Rams on Oct. 15th, which might be a good thing with their desultory 14-24 spread record.


As good as Seattle has played for years, they are only 17-27 ATS at home this month and have matchups on the first and last Sunday's against the Colts and Houston.


AWAY TEAMS


Keep an eye on (Good): The New York Giants have gotten off to a horrible start in 2017 and will be playing catch up the rest of the season. Giants backers can take solace in that they are 30-18 ATS on the road and they will have a pair of tough tests at Tampa Bay (10/1) and at Denver (10/15).


New England plays good football almost anywhere and is 31-19 ATS in the road white's. They will be at Tampa on the first Thursday of the month and 10 days later in New Jersey to take on Gang Green.


Carolina has performed well on the road at 26-17 ATS and will get their chance to show they are truly road warriors with FOUR away contests. (@ New England, @ Detroit, @Chicago and @Tampa Bay in order). Their only home game is wedged in the middle on the 12th.


Atlanta is 30-18 ATS as visitors and this month will be a new experience, with games at New England (10/22) and at the New York Jets a week later.


Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona only has one true road game this month, which is good for them given its 15-28 spread record, and that will in Philly on the Oct. 8th.


As you read this, you realize the Bengals are a bad bet anywhere in October and are miserable 20-37 ATS away from home. The situation is made worse by playing Cleveland and Pittsburgh, both as you can see above are terrific at home this month.


The Seahawks are another squad that is as dreary as the weather in Seattle in October and besides ATS home woes, they are 21-36 ATS as visitors. Two trips for the Hawks, one to the Rams (10/8) and the other at the Giants (10/22)


FAVORITES


Good: Did not see this coming! Cleveland is 11-5 ATS in this role and in all likelihood will be handing out points to the Jets at home on the 8th.


Bad: With Cincy a lousy wager home and away, it would stand to reason they would not be good bet as favorites and that is true with a nauseating 12-25 ATS mark. They will have three shots at bettering that record versus the Browns (10/1), Bills (10/8) and Colts (10/29).


With the Jaguars 10-20 ATS as chalk, we will find out how much they are improved this season. They will be giving points at the Jets on the 1st and two weeks later when they host the Rams. Because we don't know Andrew Luck's status, the Oct. 22nd line is up in the air.


Seattle is abysmal 15-30 ATS giving points in Rocktober and is expected to be favored in all four contests.


Keep an eye on (Bad): The Buccaneers have been shaky 16-27 ATS favorites and will assume that role versus the G-Men (10/1), possibly at Buffalo (10/22) and conceivably against Carolina the following week.

UNDERDOGS


Good: The Steelers are sensational 23-10 ATS as underdogs and will be at Kansas City on the third Sunday of the month, with contest in Detroit iffy two weeks later.


Keep an eye on (Good): Big Blue (the Giants) is nicely profitable 23-14 ATS when receiving points and will at Tampa Bay (10/1), at Denver (10/15) and maybe at home depending on how they are playing seven days later against Seattle.


Denver shows up in this space at 21-14 ATS as a pooch and will be listed as such one day before Halloween at K.C. on a Monday. There is slight possibility they could also be dogs at the Carson Chargers. We will have to wait and see.


The Panthers as mentioned have covered many spreads on the road and that correlates to 29-16 ATS record as underdogs. They will be dogs at Gillette Stadium to start the month, a week later in the Motor City and maybe at Tampa on the 29th.


Chicago is a somewhat surprising 30-19 ATS receiving points and are thought to in that same position four times this month.


Bad: It's bad enough that San Francisco is 13-27 ATS as dogs, but with four away encounters and home game with Dallas, a death knell looms.


DIVISION


Keep an eye on (Good): The Bears are 24-13 ATS in the NFC Central and have Minnesota in town on the 9th for a Gruden Grinder.


Another bad club with division success is the Jets from the cement jungle at 27-14 ATS. They will have the Pats at home on the 15th and go for the sweep at Miami the following week.


The Chiefs have thrived in the division 21-14 ATS and are at Oakland on Thursday the 19th and 11 days afterwards, facing the Broncos.


Bad: As much as we are tired talking about how awful Cincinnati is in October, the facts don't lie with a 13-29 record in the AFC North. As stated, they have two battles with Cleveland and Pittsburgh on the road.


Keep an eye on (Bad): Indianapolis is mediocre 16-24 ATS versus the AFC South and will face two foes. The Colts have a Monday nighter at Tennessee (10/16) and six days later have Jacksonville at home.


Finally, one last mention of the Seahawks, who are 17-27 ATS in the NFC West, which stands to reason given their other sickly spread numbers. They will take on the Rams in Tinsel Town on the 8th.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Record For Sept......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )


Totals...................41 - 30 - 1...........57.74%...........+ 40.00


Best Bets:


Best Bets Total.............7 - 6......+2.00............7 - 7.........- 3.50................- 1.50




Dog Of The Month........1 - 0


Total Of the Day...........1 - 0




*******************************


NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )


10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00




Best Bets:...................ATS.......Units........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total


Best Bets Total.............4 - 4......-2.00............2 - 2.........- 1.00................- 3.00


Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 1.................................-5.00




MONDAY, OCTOBER 2


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


WAS at KC 08:30 PM

KC -7.0 *****


U 48.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

I had a call that will take me away for a few days on a family emergency.....I will try to do my best to keep you all up to date as much as i can..........Good Luck All !

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 5
October 3, 2017

THURSDAY, OCT. 5

NEW ENGLAND at TAMPA BAY (NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pats “over” first 4 TY, and Belichick has tended to go on “totals” streaks before. Belichick now 9-1 vs. line last 10 away from Gillette Stadium.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on recent “totals” trends.

SUNDAY, OCT. 8

L.A. CHARGERS at N.Y. GIANTS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eli just 5-7 last 12 as home chalk. Bolts 23-11-1 as road dog since 2012.
Tech Edge: Chargers, based on team trends.

BUFFALO at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cincy “under” 10-2 last 12 since mid 2016. Marvin Lewis on 7-14-1 spread skid, 4-13-1 without Cleveland. Buffalo 12-6-1 as road dog since 2014.
Tech Edge: Bills, based on team trends.

N.Y. JETS at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brownies 4-14-1 last 19 vs. line at home. Also “under” 11-2 last 13 as host. Jets have covered only 2 of 9 on road since LY but one of those was at Cleveland.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Jets, based on “totals” and team trends.

JACKSONVILLE at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Tomlin “under” first four this season though Jags “over” 24-12 since 2015. Jags 8-3 last 11 as dog away from Everbank Field.
Tech Edge: Jags, based on recent trends.

TENNESSEE at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins “under” first 3 in 2017 after “over” 12-4 LY. Titans “over” 8-3 last 11 away.
Tech Edge: Slight to "under," based on current "totals" trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at INDIANAPOLIS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Niners have covered 3 in a row and 5 of 6 since late 2016. Colts “under” 7-3 last ten at Lucas Oil.
Tech Edge: 49ers and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

ARIZONA at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eagles 7-2 SU, 6-3 vs. line at Linc since LY. Though as chalk, Philly only 1-4 since LY. Cards now 3-8 vs. line last 11 away. Also “over” 11-1 last 12 away.
Tech Edge: Slight to Eagles, based on “totals” and team trends.

CAROLINA at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cam 6-1 last 7 as road dog, 17-6 since 2012 in role. Lions 11-4-1 as home chalk since 2014.
Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers, based on team trends.

SEATTLE at L.A. RAMS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Rams won SU 4 of last 6 vs. Hawks, and covered last five as series host. Rams also “over” last six since late 2016. Into Indy, Hawks on 5-game spread skid since late LY, the longest spread slump of the Carroll era. Also if chalk note 1-6 mark last seven in role.
Tech Edge: Rams and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Oakland 5-4 at home vs. line since LY, also “over” 8-1 last nine as host. Ravens 2-4 last six as road dog.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over” and Raiders, based on “totals” and recent series trends.

GREEN BAY at DALLAS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dallas 3-8 vs. line last 11 since late LY. Pack “over” 8-1 last nine on road.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to pack, based on “totals” and team trends.

KANSAS CITY at HOUSTON (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Chiefs have covered last 6 and 9 of last 10 in reg.-season games. Andy Reid 7-0 as road chalk since 2015. Texans 10-4-1 vs. line last 15 at home reg. season.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on recent trends.

MONDAY, OCT. 9

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
IFox 5-1-1 vs. spread last 7 at Soldier Field, 6-1-1 last 8 as home dog. Home team 4-0 vs. line in Bears games this season. Vikes 3-6 vs. spread last nine away.
Tech Edge: Bears, based on team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

OVER Teams to Watch
October 4, 2017


OVER Teams


Blast The OVER With These 3 Teams All Season


The spread always gets the attention, but sometimes the TOTAL is the safer bet. What do you care, right? You’re here to make money and the oddsmakers are laying down the same juice on this line for the most part.


Chasing touchdowns and cheering for scoring is fun. It’s why we watch the games. A defensive battle is great for some nerds or ex-defensive linemen who like to see a war of attrition, but for most of us we just want to see guys visiting the painted area of the fields as often as possible. Basically, we watch football to see fireworks and dancing.


So why aren’t you betting the OVER more often? These are three virtually automatic plays for you to ride as you fill out your betting ticket at BetOnline.ag on the weekend and for the foreseeable future.


For you parlay stuffers out there, there’s no better way to build a secondary angle in. Have at it. Chasing TOTALS is the best.


LOS ANGELES RAMS (4-0 O/U)
Off Rank: 1st (35.5 points)
Def Rank: 28th (26.3 points against)
Next Game: vs. Seattle (LAR -1.0 / 47.5)


Nobody would’ve guessed this at all. Aaron Donald on one of the worst scoring defences, and Jarod Goff leading the NFL’s best offence? Well it’s happening, folks. I mean, the 2017 calendar year has been outright bonkers from the beginning. Why not have something stupid like the Rams as the top ranked offence trickle in to our lives?


Todd Gurley is an absolute menace who has already racked up 7 touchdowns while leading the team in both rushing and receiving. He’s a monster. I can’t come up with enough adjectives to describe him. Finally, the stink of Jeff Fisher has dissipated off this young man’s career and he is running roughshod on the NFL.


None of what I just wrote should came as a surprise, but the fact that Gurley imposes his will on defenders so easily opens up things for a passing game that uses Robert Woods as its second receiver with insane results. Remember that when you’re betting on football, trends don’t have to make sense, they just have to be consistent.


For their part, the defence is like a revolving door. The Rams can’t stop anyone on the ground, and they’ve given up the third most rushing yards against with a whopping 151.2 per game. They’ve allowed the Niners to score 39 points and the Cowboys to drop 30. At this point, there’s no excuse for the defence. They simply give up a lot of points.


So while this might not be sustainable given that Goff is…you know…an idiot, it’s easily one of those plays that you just have to endeavor in. The Rams have been a capable team offensively all year long, and their defence hasn’t been able to slow anyone whatsoever. Slam the OVER until there’s a reason not to.


Yes, even against Seattle.


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-0 O/U)
Off Rank: 2nd (32.3 points)
Def Rank: 31st (32.0 points against)
Next Game: at Tampa (NE -5.5 / 55.5)


It doesn’t get better than this. The game’s best player combined with the league’s second-worst defence. For those that are curious, Indianapolis is bottom barrel when it comes to scoring defence with 34.0 points against, but they also allow 60.5 fewer yards against compared to the Patriots. It’s not just bad in New England, it’s absolutely wretched.


The good news is that Tom Brady is never going to let the ship sink. He’s led two marvelous comebacks against Houston and Carolina. One came through while the most recent attempt fell short, but the teachable element is that Brady’s never going to quit. It doesn’t matter if he’s down 3-28 in the Super Bowl. The guy believes he can win every single game, and has the talent to make it happen.


The Patriots are the ideal composition for a fun, OVER bet if I’ve ever seen one. And if you think a defence like Tampa, which can’t create turnovers or put pressure on the quarterback, is going to slow down the greatest ever then you shouldn’t be betting on sports. The 55.5 point total the Pats-Bucs are receiving on Thursday night at BetOnline.ag is the highest of the entire week for good reason. Chase those points, cheer for touchdowns and enjoy the damn show.


GREEN BAY PACKERS (3-1 O/U)
Off Rank: 8th (25.5 points)
Def Rank: 15th (20.3 points against)
Next Game: vs. Jacksonville (Pit -8.5 / 43.5)


“Bend, don’t break.” It’s the mantra of the Packers defence, and nobody’s told them that it doesn’t work. The only reason it ever reaped benefits was when they had a set of vultures in the secondary. Green Bay is just 11th in takeaways this season, and most of those came against poor Mike Glennon.


The only game they’ve hit the UNDER on was against Seattle with a massive 49.5 TOTAL hanging over their head. Nobody thought Seattle would suck this badly this year, and that matchup was back in Week 1.


Look at their point total against Dallas in the game of the week. It’s a massive 52.5 points. Even considering how poorly the Cowboys have played, the fact that the Packers have allowed 51.0 total points to be scored against Cincinnati says enough for me. This team can smash TOTALS offensively because of Aaron Rodgers, but their defence absolutely gives up too many scoring chances regardless of what anyone says.


Just watch the games, especially when they play against Dallas this weekend. You will see what I’m saying when Zeke Elliott and Dak Prescott romp up and down the field as Green Bay appears helpless to stop them.

 

[CNOTES]

UNDER Teams to Watch
October 4, 2017




The 3 Best Under Bets in the NFL


Let’s get one thing straight: betting the UNDER isn’t fun. It’s a dare play. You want a boring game. You end up excited about punts and fair catches. It’s a weird place to be. But you’re a gambler right? What do you care if a game is pulse pounding? If you’re driven by the need to win money, then this is the perfect handicapping tip sheet for you.


The ideal UNDER team is typically built around a mediocre offence, paired with a strong scoring defence. There are also nominal plays when a defence is so chaotic and disruptive that it interrupts the game flow to the point that opponents lose their way. Below are teams that fit that bill.


To be clear, betting the UNDER at BetOnline.ag is not for the feint of heart. If you’re daring enough to walk on the side of the brave, then follow these three surprising UNDER plays.


And for reference, I have no idea why I have to capitalize OVER, UNDER and TOTAL. Maybe It’s because people don’t pay enough attention to these lines so we need to YELL ABOUT IT.


PITTSBURGH STEELERS (0-4 O/U)
Off Rank: 18th (22.5 points)
Def Rank: 2nd (14.8 points against)
Next Game: vs. Jacksonville (Pit -8.5 / 43.5)


The Steelers are hilariously ranked 2nd in overall scoring defence because they got to play DeShone Kizer, Case Keenum, Mike Glennon and Joe Flacco in that order. But the glaring perception on them is that they can score in absolute boat loads, and from what we’ve seen from their offense so far, that isn’t happening.


Pittsburgh used to be an automatic OVER play because this offense was brilliant, and the opportunistic defence was great at scoring. That’s not the case anymore. So the Steelers remain an opponent-dependent UNDER take, but the TOTAL on their games ends up inflated because of flawed public perception. Take full advantage, especially in Week 5 when they play a sputtering Jaguars offence.


OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-3 O/U)
Off Rank: 16th (22.8 points)
Def Rank: 13th (19.8 points against)
Next Game: vs. Baltimore (Oak -2.5 / 40.0)


Yup, they were scoring that many points when Derek Carr was at the helm. It’s only going to get significantly worse now that E.J. Manuel is their quarterback. The good news? We saw it on Sunday when they manhandled Denver defensively. Khalil Mack and company are purely disruptive.


The only game they pushed the OVER is when they victimized an overwhelmed Jets secondary with long bombs. That part of their game plan is now dead. You can pinch their TOTALS tightly until Carr comes back in six weeks. There’s too much pride in their defense to let their division chances slip away.


BUFFALO BILLS (1-3 O/U)
Off Rank: 23rd (18.2 points)
Def Rank: 1st (13.5 points against)
Next Game: at Cincinnati (Cin -3.0 / 38.5)


If there was ever a perfect UNDER team, this is it. The Bills have clearly been the most ferocious defence in the NFL this year. You could see it in the way Devonta Freeman kept getting murdered in the backfield on Sunday. These guys are just out for blood. And their offence is slow, putrid and built on big plays that rarely happen. It’s the perfect storm.


The oddsmakers are so nervous around the Bills that they gave them a low hanging 40.0 point TOTAL against Denver. They only crested that mark by two points, winning 26-16. As far as savvy plays go, the Bills in the UNDER feels like a virtual lock considering how grinding their playing style is on both sides of the ball.


Just understand that you’re going to be holding your breath the entire time when you bet a Bills UNDER this year. It’s part of the price you pay to lay this kind of action.

 

[CNOTES]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 5
October 4, 2017




NFL Week 5 Underdogs to Watch


Week 4 was another good week for NFL underdogs across the board, but if you had the stones to bypass the points on some of the bigger 'dogs and bet them on the ML, you came away like a bandit.


Last week's underdogs piece suggested that only the Washington Redskins were primed for an outright upset (and they were in it until the end), but of the five other teams on the list, three of them won outright, San Francisco nearly knocked off Arizona in OT, and only the Colts lived up to their big number by getting smoked in Seattle.


ML plays on Carolina (+350), Buffalo (+320), and the L.A. Rams (+230) all provided huge paydays for bettors backing those sides, and they taught me to not be so dismissive of some quality teams that make this list.


Week 5 is a whole different beast all together though as people in survivor pools are likely going to be scratching their heads on who to pick this week. All but two of the games on the Sunday/Monday slate have point spreads of 3.5 or less, making this week's underdog list of teams at +4 or better rather short. Let's get right to the breakdown.


Odds per - BetDSI.eu


Underdogs that Qualify


Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5); ML (+330)
Arizona Cardinals (+6); ML (+235)


I'll start with Jacksonville, as they are in Pittsburgh to play a Steelers team off a dominant performance against the hated Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh is also back at home after two straight on the road, and do have a potential look-ahead spot here with a trip to face Kansas City on deck. That's not an ideal situation to be laying all those points with the Steelers, but do you really want to go all the way and fade them on the ML as well?


Jacksonville has looked good in two of the four weeks so far (beating Houston 29-7 and beating Baltimore 44-7), but it's been their play in their two losses that is quite concerning. The Jags got blown out by Tennessee in Week 2, and they basically played from behind all week last Sunday against a bad New York Jets team.


The Jags were outgained by 160 yards total against the Jets (-81 on the ground, -79 through the air), and they enter Week 5 with the worst rushing defense in the league - giving up 165.5 yards/game. That's music to the ears of Pittsburgh's O-Line and RB Le'Veon Bell, and if those guys have success then it will likely be another long day for this Jags defense.


Pittsburgh should be able to simply run the ball down Jacksonville's throat, dominate the time of possession game, put up plenty of points, and let their defense bring it home. Simply put, the Jags are not one I'd be looking to bet on the ML here, even with Pittsburgh potentially looking ahead to their date with the Chiefs.


Arizona is on the road as well, but they are in Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. Philadelphia is 3-1 SU and while many media pundits are quite high on this Eagles team now, I believe they have gotten to that 3-1 SU record with a lot of smoke and mirrors.


The Eagles were lucky to leave Washington with a 30-17 victory in Week 1 as a few controversial calls went their way, they fell to the Chiefs late in Week 2, and have since beaten two winless teams (NYG and LAC) by a combined five points. Sure, they've put up at least 20 points each game in 2017, but this is a team that's nowhere near as good as many would want you to believe, or that their 3-1 SU record suggests.


Arizona hasn't really looked good in any game this year at 2-2 SU and that “eye test” is a big reason why they are getting nearly a TD here. The Cardinals have yet to cover a point spread this year, and two OT wins against the likes of Indianapolis and San Francisco have many people suggesting this Arizona team is going to be a bottom-feeder this year.


However, the talent is definitely on the Cardinals roster to be exponentially better than what they've shown, and an inability to execute in the redzone in terms of getting TD's has made them look a lot worse then they really are. This is definitely a game where I can see Arizona put it all together as the signs are there that they are close, and it's not like Philly's defense is anything special.


The Eagles allowed 24 points to the Chargers and Giants the last two weeks and they were torched through the air in both games. Arizona's strength on offense is in the passing game with RB David Johnson on IR, and Carson Palmer and his numerous weapons in the passing game should have a big effort.


So not only do I believe Arizona gets their first ATS win of 2017 this week, I strongly believe they get the outright victory as well. With the Cardinals (+235) paying out at the price they are, they are the big dog most likely to pull off the outright upset in Week 5.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Best Bet
October 4, 2017




Thursday NFL Best Bet


New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers


It's rare for the NFL to schedule a non-conference game for Thursday Night Football, but that's precisely what we've got this week as the Patriots head south to take on the Buccaneers. Both teams have two wins on the year, but both have losing ATS records as well, with New England's 1-3 ATS mark being the most concerning.


Bettors routinely got paid off a year ago backing New England ATS no matter the number as the Patriots went 13-3 ATS in 2016, and given the enormous popularity that surrounds New England, you'd better believe many will have no problem going back to the well in riding New England as they expect a turnaround to be on the horizon.


Yet, the Patriots defense is on a historically awful pace these days as they seemingly can't stop anyone. It was a problem that started to rear it's ugly head during the preseason, and a month into the regular season things really haven't changed. When you can't keep the opponent out of the end zone it's going to be hard to cover point spreads, but even with that being the case for New England, we've already seen plenty of support for them for TNF.


BetOnline.ag Odds: New England (-5.5), Tampa Bay (+5.5); Total set at 55


At the moment, VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers show more than 80% of the spread tickets being placed on New England already. Given the Patriots profile that's not surprising, but it also helps that many remember that visiting teams are 3-1 SU on TNF already this year.


New England backers will point to the fact that Tampa's defense isn't much better than their own statistically in 2017, and if this game does turn out to be a shootout this total suggests – and nearly everyone expects – siding with the more known commodity in the New England Patriots offense is going to be the default method of many bettors here.


Yet, while going against the grain and taking the Buccaneers ATS here is tempting (and will be even more so should this number climb to +6 or higher by kick-off), I'm not so sure I want a piece of the side in this game. This number is set right about where it should be in my opinion, and I wouldn't be surprised by either team winning SU and/or ATS. Instead it's this total of 55 that I believe is the better betting option and not really in the way you may expect.


Everyone will see this number of 55 and won't believe it's high enough given the two defenses involved here. New England has the worst pass defense in the league and is facing a third-ranked passing offense that the Bucs have. Conversely, New England's passing attack is #1 in the NFL (328 yards/game) and is facing the second-worst passing defense in the league. On the surface that looks like the easiest 'over' bet out there this year and there is no question the majority of total bettors will go that route.


But when I see two bottom-feeding defensive teams squaring off against one another, basically in any sport, I'm looking to go the other way and take the 'under.' The same line of thought works for two great defenses squaring off (ie. Take the 'over'), and it's for a variety of reasons.


One, oddsmakers have already incorporated these bad defensive numbers the Bucs and Pats have into their thinking behind the line and hung what they believe to be a fair number. They understand that the majority of bettors are going to take the 'over' no matter what in a game like this, and they try to suck out all the value they can from that projected play by posting a strong number. With the Patriots 4-0 O/U already this year and scoring an average of 32.2 points/game, the 'over' on this game is going to overwhelmingly end up being the majority side.


Secondly, going against the grain when the grain is so firmly going in one direction tends to be the smarter option, and that's undoubtedly what we've got here. There aren't many bettors who break down the stats for both sides and want to even consider sweating out a 'under' play in this game. The 'over' looks too good to be true in the eyes of many, and usually when that's the case, the oddsmakers are hoping they have you hook, line, and sinker.


Finally, let's look at some specific situations regarding this game that do in fact support an 'under' play here.


First off, Tampa's field is a grass field and it's going to be much slower than the fast turf tracks New England has played on for four weeks. New England is 1-8 O/U in their last nine games on grass and a bit of rain is expected in the forecast as well; potentially making things a little sloppy out there for the offenses. Add in a short week of prep time for both sides – a situation typically favorable to defensive football – and all of a sudden that 55 number shrinks up a bit.


Finally, don't for one second think the defensive players on both sides of the field are sick of hearing about how they are going to get torched every which way from Sunday in this game. Both units know they've not come close to playing up to par, and will look to establish their wills from the outset here.


How successful they are in doing that remains to be seen, but even some success and forcing FG's instead of TD's on drives makes reaching 55 points that much harder. And don't think for one second that either coaching staff won't be afraid to make personnel changes – if they haven't already this week – in an attempt to improve the disastrous play they've seen from their defenses already this year.


So while everyone is expecting a shootout with the ball aired out all over the yard on Thursday night, I think we a little bit of the opposite with the running game being more involved on both sides (RB Doug Martin returns for Tampa), and these two teams finish the game somewhere with a combined score in the 40's.


BetOnline.ag Best Bet: Under 55 points

 

[CNOTES]

NFL opening line report: Cowboys open as home faves in Week 5
Patrick Everson


“Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”


Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)


Through the first four weeks of the season, Dallas still can’t seem to find the form it had during a 13-3 SU regular season in 2016. On Sunday, the Cowboys (2-2 SU and ATS) were in a dogfight throughout with the Los Angeles Rams and ultimately fell short 35-30 as a 5-point home favorite.


Green Bay got through the first month at 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS), with the only loss coming at defending NFC champion Atlanta. Last week in the Thursday nighter, the Packers bounced the Bears 35-14 as a 7.5-point chalk.


“This rivalry has renewed in great fashion the last few years, and this game will easily be our biggest handle of the season from a public perspective,” Cooley said of this 4:25 p.m. ET clash on Sunday. “Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”


New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)


Much like Dallas, New England was dealt a stunning home loss in Week 4 and has now lost two of its three home games this season. The Patriots (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tumbled to Carolina 33-30 as a 9-point fave, and now hit the road on a short week, playing in the Thursday night game.


Tampa Bay (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got a Nick Folk 34-yard field goal as time expired to edge the New York Giants 25-23, but the Bucs fell a tick short of covering as 2.5-point chalk Sunday.


“We’re expecting this number to inflate with the Patriots coming off a loss. But it’s doubtful it will grow to -5, and unlikely it will drop below -4,” Cooley said. “Our team was pretty consistent on this number and it feels right. Squares will think this is a steal spread, backing the Pats.”


As Cooley predicted, the number did bump up a tick later Sunday night, to Patriots -4.5.


Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)


Philadelphia is looking solid through four weeks, having already posted a pair of road victories. On Sunday at San Diego, the Eagles (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) held on for a 26-24 win as a 2-point underdog.


Arizona (2-2 SU) hasn’t covered in any of its four games this season. The Cardinals needed overtime Sunday in an offensive slog against San Francisco, winning 18-15 laying 6 points at home.


“My best guess is that this will climb a bit on the favorite side,” Cooley said. “Arizona is just not a good team, while we’ve been quite impressed with the Eagles, particularly in their road victories against decent competition. Some of our oddsmakers wanted this at -7.”


By late Sunday night, it was already trending that way, with Bookmaker.eu moving the Eagles to -6.5.


Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (no line)


Los Angeles is arguably one of the biggest surprises so far this season, getting out of the box 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) while piling up a ton of points. The Rams went into Dallas on Sunday as a 5-point pup, but came away with a 35-30 victory, getting six field goals from Greg Zuerlein.


Seattle finally showed signs of life on offense in the second half of the Week 4 Sunday night game. The Seahawks (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) scored 36 points over the final two frames against Indianapolis, rolling to a 46-18 victory laying 12.5 points at home. With Seattle in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu is waiting until Monday to post the line on Seahawks-Rams.


“Depending on how the Sunday night game goes, we’ll likely open Seattle as short chalk on the road,” Cooley said. “The Rams have surprised most, and the Seahawks haven’t exactly impressed in the early goings (prior to Sunday). That said, the public won’t think twice about backing the ‘Hawks at a favorable number.

 

[CNOTES]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 5 NFL lines are going to move


Green Bay is relishing a few extra days off after demolishing the Bears last Thursday, with about a dozen players nursing various injuries.


Game to bet on now


Buffalo at Cincinnati (-3)


The first-place Buffalo Bills. OMG. No, today is not Opposite Day - the Bills are actually in first place in the AFC for the first time since, well, maybe George Bush – the FIRST George Bush.


New England’s continued defensive struggles have created, at least, a temporary opening for the Bills and their long-suffering fans, and right now they’re taking full advantage. Through four games Buffalo has given up the fewest points in the league (less than 14 a game), and back-to-back wins over quality teams (Denver, at Atlanta) has raised hopes sky-high in western New York.


With the Patriots on a short week and the Bills on the move, things could get very interesting in the division for the first time in a long time.


Game to wait on


Green Bay at Dallas (-2.5)


This line opened at Dallas -1 at some books but the consensus was -2.5, which led to Green Bay backers jumping in with both feet. It has the look and a feel of a game whose line could melt a bit.


There might be an air of desperation in Dallas (even moreso than usual) as the Cowboys are 2-2 and still trying to figure things out. Certainly no one in the league had penciled in a home loss to the Rams when the schedule came out, but here we are. The Boys need to get rolling and fast, but the next four-game block includes this one, road games to each coast (San Francisco, Washington) with a home game against a solid KC team mixed in.


Green Bay is relishing a few extra days off after demolishing the Bears last Thursday, with about a dozen players nursing various injuries. Might be worth waiting for the injury report before betting this one.


Total to watch


Carolina at Detroit (43.5)


Is Cam Newton finally out of the box, or was Sunday’s 33-point burst just an example of another quarterback taking advantage of New England’s league-worst defense?


Newton’s Panthers had scored just 22 points total in their previous two games (New Orleans, Buffalo) but got out of the sick bed fast against the porous Patriots' D. Newton got the job done against New England despite two sacks, an interception and a fumble, which means the offense still has some cleanup work to do.


The Lions defense has been about average this season, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Carolina to put points on the board as it continues an October stretch of four road games in five weeks.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 5


Thursday, October 5


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NEW ENGLAND (2 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 1) - 10/5/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 178-140 ATS (+24.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 116-82 ATS (+25.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Sunday, October 8


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LA CHARGERS (0 - 4) at NY GIANTS (0 - 4) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (3 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 3) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (2 - 2) at CLEVELAND (0 - 4) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 102-72 ATS (+22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 89-62 ATS (+20.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (2 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 4) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 3) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (2 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (3 - 1) at DETROIT (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 58-83 ATS (-33.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 131-170 ATS (-56.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (2 - 2) at LA RAMS (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 33-60 ATS (-33.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 40-65 ATS (-31.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
LA RAMS is 177-226 ATS (-71.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 177-226 ATS (-71.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-115 ATS (-46.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 127-178 ATS (-68.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-178 ATS (-58.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (2 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (3 - 1) at DALLAS (2 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (4 - 0) at HOUSTON (2 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Monday, October 9


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (2 - 2) at CHICAGO (1 - 3) - 10/9/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Week 5


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thursday, October 5


9:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
Tampa Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home




Sunday, October 8
2:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Miami
Tennessee is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Miami is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. INDIANAPOLIS
San Francisco is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games at home

2:00 PM
NY JETS vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games
NY Jets are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games
Cleveland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets

2:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CINCINNATI
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

2:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. NY GIANTS
Los Angeles is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Los Angeles

2:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. DETROIT
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Carolina
Detroit is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

2:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. PITTSBURGH
Jacksonville is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Jacksonville
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

2:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Arizona is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona

5:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. LOS ANGELES
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Los Angeles is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games when playing Seattle

5:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. OAKLAND
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Baltimore

5:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DALLAS
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home

9:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. HOUSTON
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home




Monday, October 9


9:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
Minnesota is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 5


Thursday's game
Patriots (2-2) @ Buccaneers (2-1)— New England defense has already allowed 33+ points in three games this year; they’re 0-2 when scoring less than 36 points. Patriot defense has given up 3.04 pts/drive on 28 opponent drives that started 75+ yards from goal line; next worst in NFL are Saints, at 2.80. Bucs don’t have a takeaway in last two games; they’re only 4-17 on 3rd down in last two games. Tampa ran ball for 117-111 yards in its two wins, only 26 yards on 9 carries in their 26-9 loss in Minnesota. Patriots are 6-2 vs Tampa Bay, winning last three meetings by combined score of 86-10. This is Patriots’ first visit to Tampa Bay since 1997. NFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside the division; AFC East teams are 6-4, 1-3 when favored.




Sunday's games
Chargers (0-4) @ Giants (0-4)— Two desperate teams meet here; Chargers already have three losses by 3 or less points- they lost 24-21 at Denver in only road game. Since 2012, LA is 22-11-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Giants lost 27-24/25-23 the last two weeks; they’re running ball for only 59.3 yards/game, so all the pressure is on their passing game. Giants lost 24-10 to Detroit in their only home game; they’re 5-7 vs spread in last 12 games as a home favorite. Chargers won last three series games, by 22-1-23 points; their last loss to the Giants was in 1998. NFC East teams are 5-4 vs spread out of their division, 1-3 when favored. AFC West teams are 5-4 vs spread out of division, 3-0 as an underdog.


Bills (3-1) @ Bengals (1-3)— Buffalo allowed 13.5 ppg in its 3-1 start, giving up 4 TD’s on 4 drives; they were underdog in last 3 games. Bills are +6 in turnovers- they haven’t turned ball over in their last three games- three of the four games stayed under. Buffalo is 12-6-1 in last 19 games as a road underdog. Bengals won their first game LW; they led 21-7/21-0 at halftime last two weeks- they lost in OT at Green Bay in Week 3. Cincy scored 6 TD’s on 20 drives in last two games, after scoring no TD’s in first two games- -they won three of last four series games; road team won four of last five series games. Bills are 5-1 in last six visits here. AFC East teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division, 5-1 as an underdog. AFC North teams are 2-2 vs spread.


Jets (2-2) @ Browns (0-4)— Winless Browns are at home for 4th time in five weeks; they have worst red zone defense in NFL, allowing 6.38 pts/red zone drive, slightly worse than Green Bay. Browns are running ball for 89 yards/game- they’re only 15-53 on 3rd down, not unusual with a rookie QB playing. Jets won last two weeks; they ran ball for 256 yards LW. Under Bowles, Jets are 5-9-3 vs spread on road. Last 4+ years, Browns are 4-8 vs spread as a home favorite; they are 4-10 vs spread in last 14 games when favored. Jets won their last four games with Cleveland; they won 31-28 here LY, are 2-1 in last three visits here. AFC East teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division, 5-1 as an underdog. AFC North teams are 2-2 vs spread.


Jaguars (2-2) @ Steelers (3-1)— Jaguars ran ball for 155+ yards in 3 of 4 games; they’re 7 for last 27 on 3rd down, completed only 15-35 passes LW. Jags averaged 7.5/7.4 ypa in their two wins, 5.9/3.8 in their losses. Jaguars are 6-3 in last nine games as a road underdog. Steelers (-8.5) beat Minnesota in their only home game; they’ve held all four opponents under 5.0 ypa this year, last three under 4.0. Since 2012, Pitt is 20-12 vs spread as a home favorite; they’ve allowed 23 points, scored 7 on 28 opponents’ drives that started 75+ yards from goal line. Pitt won last three series games, by 5-4-8 points, since Jaguars beat them in ’07 playoffs. Jaguars are 5-2 in last seven visits to Steel City. AFC South non-divisional home dogs are 3-2 vs spread.


Titans (2-2) @ Dolphins (1-2)— Miami is finally home after games in LA-NJ-London, thanks to Hurricane Irma; in their last two games, Dolphins have one TD, no FGA’s on 20 drives- they went 2-20 on 3rd down in their two losses, but scored only one TD in the win, too. Fish are 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a home underdog. Tennessee lost 57-14 LW in a game they were favored to win; Titans scored 37-33 points in its two wins- they went 3/out on 15 of last 25 drives, allowed 26+ points in 3 of 4 games. Tennessee is 1-3-1 in last five games as a road favorite. Teams split last ten meetings; Titans won 37-3/30-17 in last two visits to Miami. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 5-1 vs spread; AFC South teams are 4-4.


49ers (0-4) @ Colts (1-3)— 49ers didn’t score a TD in 3 of their 4 games; they scored 39 in the other game, but lost all four, last three by 3-2-3 points- Niners are 8-12 in last 20 games as a road underdog, but are 2-0 this year. Indy was tied 18-18 in Seattle Sunday, then got outscored 21-0 over a 5:56 span; they’ve split two home games this year, with both games decided by a FG. Colts are favored for first time this year; over last 2+ years, they’re 5-7 as a home favorite- under is 12-6 in their last 18 home games. Colts won last three series games, by 25-4-20 points; teams split four meetings played here. AFC South non-divisional home teams are 3-1 vs spread. NFC West teams are 3-7 vs spread outside their division, 1-4 when getting points.


Cardinals (2-2) @ Eagles (3-1)— Arizona is 2-2, with shaky wins by FG each over Colts/49ers, when they allowed a total of one TD- they gave up 8 offensive TD’s in losses to Lions/Dallas; Cardinals have run ball for only 57 ypg. Redbirds are 1-4 in last five games as a road underdog. Philly is 3-1, winning their last two games by total of 5 points; they beat Giants 27-24 (-6) in their only home game, kicking 61-yard FG on last play. Eagles are 4-6 in last 10 games as a home favorite; they ran ball for 193-214 yards in last two games, have converted 30-59 on 3rd down this season.NFC East teams are 1-3 as a non-divisional favorite; NFC West dogs are 1-4. Arizona won five of last six games with Philly, winning 40-17 in last visit here two years ago.


Panthers (3-1) @ Lions (3-1)— Detroit is already +9 (11-2) in turnovers this year; they’ve won field position in all 4 games, three by 5+ yards. Lions are 12-4-3 as a home favorite under Caldwell, 1-0 this season. Carolina didn’t allow a TD in winning their first two games; they gave up 7 TD’s on 19 drives in last two games, but upset Patriots 33-30 LW to get to 3-1. Panthers are 8-1 vs spread in last nine games as a road underdog. Under is 3-1 in their four games. LW was first time they gained more than 288 yards in a game this year. Carolina is 5-2 against the Lions, splitting part of visits here, last of which was in 2011. NFC North non-divisional home teams are 6-2 vs spread; NFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside their division.


Seahawks (2-2) @ Rams (3-1)— Seattle lost its first two road games by 8-6 points; they’re 11-7-5 in last 23 games as a road underdog. Seahawks scored 8 TD’s on 23 drives in last two games, after scoring one TD the first two weeks. 3-1 Rams are favored over Seattle for just 4th time in last 27 meetings. LA won three of last four series games, which lost last three series road games, by 2-3-6 points. Rams lead NFL in scoring thru four weeks, scoring 12 TD’s with 14 FGs in four games, plus two TD’s by the defense- they scored 35+ points in their three wins, were held to 20 in only loss (27-20) vs Redskins. LA defense gave up 385+ yards in each of last three games; opponents were 16-32 on 3rd down in last two games.


Ravens (2-2) @ Raiders (2-2)— Oakland QB Carr (back fracture) is out 2-6 weeks; EJ Manuel is Raiders’ new QB- he is 6-11 as an NFL starter, losing last five starts- his last win was in 2014. Oakland lost last two games, scoring two TD’s on 24 drives, with 15 3/outs. Ravens were +7 in turnovers in their two wins, then lost last two games by combined 70-16, scoring two TDs with six turnovers (-5) on 24 drives. Raiders won their last two games vs Baltimore, 37-33/28-27, after losing 7 of previous 8 series games. Teams split four meetings played here. Lot of travel for Ravens, who were in London two weeks ago, then didn’t have bye week after, and are now on west coast- 3 of their 4 games for both teams have stayed under the total.


Packers (3-1) @ Cowboys (2-2)— Green Bay won six of last seven series games, beating Dallas in playoffs two of last three years; they won 37-36/34-31 in last two visits here- their last loss in Dallas was in ‘07. Packers have already used 3 LT’s and 3 RT’s, is amazing they’re 3-1. Pack is 28-57 on 3rd down despite running for only 74.5 ypg, a credit to Rodgers’ greatness. Cowboys allowed 42-35 points in two losses, 3-17 points in two wins; they’re 8-18 vs spread in last 26 games as non-divisional home favorites. Last week was first time Green Bay led at halftime this year; Packers are 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as road underdogs, 8-15 vs spread in last 23 games on artificial turf. Green Bay’s last three games all went over the total. Packers’ RB Montgomery has multiple broken ribs, will likely sit this one out.


Chiefs (4-0) @ Texans (2-2)— Short week for Chiefs, who won/covered their first four games, scoring 14 TD’s on 42 drives- they haven’t turned ball over in their last 3 games. KC is 12-2 vs spread as a road favorite under Reid- they ran ball for 168+ yards in 3 of their 4 games, are tied with Raiders for best (5.67 ppp) red zone offense in NFL. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Texan games this year; Houston scored 90 points in last two games behind rookie QB Watson, who is 2-1 as a starter. Texans scored a defensive TD in each of last two games, and also averaged 8.3/7.6 ypa; they’re 3-4 as a home underdog under O’Brien. KC is 5-4 in series games, 4-3 in Houston. AFC West teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division; AFC South teams are 4-4 vs spread outside their division.


Monday's game
Vikings (2-2) @ Bears (1-3)— Rookie QB Trubisky makes his NFL debut here; he started for one year at North Carolina- UNC went 8-5 LY. Vikings won four of last five games against the Bears,, but lost 8 of their last 9 visits to Chicago, with lone win 2 years ago. Minnesota scored 9-7 points in their losses this year, 29-34 in their wins; they lost 26-9 at Pittsburgh in only road game this season— backup QB Keenum is 10-17 as an NFL starter. Chicago is 1-3, but both their home games were decided by 6 points- they were outscored 47-7 in first half of their last two losses, which is why the QB change was made. Bears are 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight games as road underdogs. Under is 3-1 in both teams’ games this year.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 5
Monty Andrews


Le'Veon Bell broke out in a big way last week, racking up 186 total yards and two touchdowns. He faces a Jags team that allows more than 165 rushing yards per game on a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5, 43.5)


Jaguars' dreadful run D vs. LeVeon Bell's awesomeness


After playing three of their first four games on the road, the Pittsburgh Steelers enjoy a nice stretch of home cooking - beginning with Sunday afternoon's showdown with the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars. Ben Roethlisberger and the rest of the Steelers' offense is still finding its footing early in the season, but comes into this one with a 3-1 record - and a significant advantage when it comes to their run game, if last week's strategy is any indication.


A lot of attention has been paid to the Jaguars' offense, which was a major question mark following Blake Bortles' terrible preseason and a season-ending injury to top receiver Allen Robinson. Yet, while the team has put up an impressive 109 points through four games, it's the run defense that has been a significant issue. Jacksonville is surrendering more than 165 rushing yards per game on a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry with five touchdowns against; the Jags gave up just 3.8 YPC last season.


The Steelers finally gave their bellcow back, Le'Veon Bell, a workload commensurate with his ability in last week's 26-9 rout of the Baltimore Ravens - and Bell broke out in a big way, racking up 186 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. He's averaging just 3.7 YPC on the season, but missed all of training camp due to a contract dispute and is just now hitting his stride. If the Jags' run defense continues to allow big runs, Bell and the Steelers could be in for a very big day.


Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 44)


Panthers' aversion to penalties vs. Lions' lousy discipline


It's a battle of division leaders at Ford Field this Sunday as the Lions host the Panthers in a showdown of 3-1 teams. The Panthers are coming off a stunning 33-30 win over the defending-champion Patriots at Foxboro, while the Lions ground out a 14-7 road win over Minnesota last weekend. Discipline could be a major factor in this one, with Carolina among the league's best at avoiding flags - and Detroit at the other end of the spectrum as we enter Week 5.


Carolina has been the class of the league when it comes to discipline, picking up just 13 flags through four games - the fewest in the NFL. Only Tampa Bay has garnered fewer than Carolina's 118 penalty yards against, and the Buccaneers have only played three games. The Panthers' plus-10 net penalty count ranks second in the league, and they rank fourth in net penalty yards (65). Even more impressively: Carolina has just two combined flags in its previous two games.


The Lions should consider themselves fortunate to be 3-1 at this stage of the season considering how undisciplined they've been so far. Detroit has been penalized 31 times for a whopping 308 yards against, the third-highest total in the league. That includes 139 penalty yards on offense, behind only the Steelers. It's no surprise, then, that the Lions rank second from the bottom in net penalty yards with -125 - and a similar performance this weekend could spell trouble for the hosts.


Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+1, 47)


Chiefs' poor pass protection vs. Texans' tough pass rush


The Chiefs are the only remaining unbeaten team through four weeks - and they'll be in tough to keep their spotless record as they draw the Texans in Houston this weekend. The Texans are coming off a 57-14 annihilation of Tennessee, evening their record and moving them into a tie with the Jaguars and Titans atop the AFC South. Yet, for as much attention as the Houston offense garnered last week, it's the Texans' elite pass rush that could help the home side hand Kansas City its first loss.


Alex Smith has been his efficient best through four games - completing 76 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions - but has also had to deal with a leaky offensive line that has allowed 16 sacks so far this season, third-most in the NFL. Smith has been sacked on 11.7 percent of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL. The Kansas City run game has helped take some of the focus away, but make no mistake - Smith has spent a lot of time on the ground.


Houston will be happy to oblige this weekend; the Texans have produced a sack on 8.3 percent of opponent dropbacks so far this season, good for seventh in the league. That pass pressure has also helped contribute to Houston's four interceptions, tied for sixth-most league-wide. Combine that with the Texans' league-leading seven forced fumbles, and it could be a long afternoon for Smith and the rest of the Kansas City offense.


Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3, OFF)


Vikings' drive-extending success vs. Bears' third-down D woes


There's plenty of hype surrounding this week's Monday night tilt between the Vikings and the host Bears, with Chicago finally starting No. 2 pick Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. Yet, while it's difficult to know what fans and bettors alike can expect from the rookie signal caller, it should be a little easier to spot a significant edge the Vikings have coming into this one - and if they can exploit it, that could give them the edge to escape with a pivotal NFC North road victory.


Minnesota could have Sam Bradford back under center this week - and while that's great news for the offense, substitute Case Keenum has performed admirably in Bradford's absence. Together, they have the Vikings ranked fifth in the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 46.2 percent - behind only Carolina, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Denver. It's a considerable improvement from the 38.0-percent third-down success rate Minnesota boasted last season.


The Bears are one of only two teams in the NFC to have allowed more than 100 points so far - and they can "credit" their woeful showing on third downs for part of that. Chicago is allowing opponents to score or extend drives on better than 47 percent of their third-down situations - the third-worst mark in football, and a major drop from last season's 40.5-percent conversion rate. Those extra plays could mean the difference in what is expected to be a closely-contested affair.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 5 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner


The Buffalo Bills are a perfect 4-0 ATS and getting three points from oddsmakers visting the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday.


New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 55.5)


Taking everything into account, a general statement about both teams comes to New England not really being a good team right now and Tampa Bay not being that bad of a team.


Offshores sent this out at Patriots -4.5 and by Tuesday afternoon the line had already hit -6 Even on the strip in Las Vegas. Personally, I liked the offshore opener and thought that to be very fair. I’m not sure what the early money sees in a New England team that can’t stop anyone from a defensive perspective. Losers of two of three games at home, though the Pats have scored mightily themselves, their defense has allowed 42, 20, 33 and 33 points in succession.


With that kind of swiss cheese defense, it seems that bettors can take full advantage of this weak link in the New England chain and capitalize further with this early growing number. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs scored a nice victory in this spot straight up.


With the fast, early movement on the road favorites, Tampa Bay backers may want to wait to see if their local bookmakers continue to beef up the Patriots number in keeping up with the Joneses. Nothing like going against a team that’s in “due factor” mode in the eyes of line changing money. Somehow, I don’t think this is the Patriots’ year. Early recognition of this will put more cash in your pocket than taking it out. Wait to see where this peaks then take the home dog for best value.


Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 39)


This game opened Bengals -3 and remained at that level for a good three days now. I had this closer to a pick’em and I can’t for the life of me figure out what is going on with this game.


Cincinnati had shown next to nothing in its first three games sporting an 0-3 record with minimal offense to speak of. I put little credence in the Bengals’ win over hapless Cleveland and can’t believe it had any motivational force to the oddsmakers who made this line.


What’s not to like about the Bills right now? Their offense has been rejuvenated the past two games. Their defense continues to dominate everyone they have faced so far. They conceivably could have beaten the Panthers in their only loss and stand at 4-0.


If I’m totally wrong in this game, I still think the +3 is a definite value play. Buffalo has played toe-to-toe with the likes of Carolina, Denver and Atlanta the past three weeks. Cincinnati does not appear to be on the same level with those teams at this point. Both have gone 1-3 Over/Under in their four games and this one doesn’t have the look of a high-scoring affair with that 39-point total. In this close one, the value is taking the points and bonus on the key three.


Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 47)


This game opened with the Rams spotting a deuce but was immediately taken by Seahawks backers. I kind of liked the offshore number myself and then some. I made this Rams -2.5, so I’m at an even larger gap in my opinion. I’m not sure if Seattle money just loved the fact that the Seahawks looked so great against the woeful Colts and thought that would continue against a better team.


The Rams have been an offensive dynamo so far, racking up scores of 46, 20, 41 and 35 in their first four games. They appear to be able to hang with whoever comes their way. Seattle is 2-2 and it hasn’t really played the toughest schedule.


With a 47 as a total in this game, there’s an expectation that scoring will be high. I’m not sure Seattle can keep up with the Rams at this point in the season if this gets to be a score fest. At -1.5 all you’re asking either team to do is win the game. That being the case, such a low number on the better team seems to be a good value play.


Returning home after a big win in Dallas, the Rams may even have a home-field advantage if enough people come to watch. If you think the Seahawks have suddenly turned things around, take the points ASAP before this line goes down any further.