Cnotes 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

[CNOTES]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 28


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NCAAF Game of the Day: Penn State at Ohio State
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Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5, 56.5)


A crucial moment in Penn State's rise toward the top of the college football landscape was its dramatic upset of Ohio State last season, and the host Buckeyes hope for some payback when the Big Ten powerhouses tangle Saturday in Columbus. A fourth-quarter rally capped by a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown lifted the Nittany Lions to a stunning victory in last year's meeting, which sparked a closing push that led to Penn State's Big Ten title.


The second-ranked Lions enter this matchup coming off an impressive 42-13 win over then-No. 15 Michigan and once again can carve out a path to the conference championship if they can take care of No. 6 Ohio State.


"I don't think there's any doubt when you find a way as an organization to beat the No. 2 team in the country, I don't care where you're at in your program's development, that win has a big impact from a lot of different perspectives," Penn State coach James Franklin told reporters of last year's triumph and the impact it had moving forward.


The Buckeyes have been steamrolling opponents since their early loss to Oklahoma, winning five in a row by an average of 42 points, and they are coming off a bye week that should have them primed and ready for the challenge. Ohio State has produced at least 500 yards of offense in each of those five straight wins, the longest stretch in program history, and it enters the week tied for the FBS lead in scoring (47.3).

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at some locations at OSU -7 and been bet down a half a point to 6.5 at most sportsbooks. There are a few shops dealing Penn State +6. The total opened offshore at 56, got bet down to 54.5 but is now back up to 56.

INJURY REPORT:


Penn State - OL Andrew Nelson (Questionable, undisclosed)


Ohio State - CB Shaun Wade (Questionable, undisclosed)

ABOUT PENN STATE (7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS, 2-5 O/U): The usual suspects did their thing against the Wolverines as quarterback Trace McSorley threw for 282 yards and a touchdown while scoring three times on the ground, and running back Saquon Barkley had two rushing TDs to go along with a juggling reception for a third score. Ohio State's top-rated offense will be tested by the nation's No. 1 scoring defense (9.6), led by senior linebacker Jason Cabinda, who had 12 tackles, a half-sack and a forced fumble last week. Senior wideout DaeSean Hamilton has 17 catches for 272 yards and three TDs over the last three games and needs nine yards to move into third place on the school's all-time list.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS, 5-2 O/U): Senior J.T. Barrett ranks second to McSorley in the Big Ten in passing yards with 1,838 and he has 18 TD passes with no interceptions during the five-game run. "With a quarterback who has played as long as he has, he's had several of them [to prove himself]," coach Urban Meyer said of Barrett, who has had very few but notable bad games in big situations. "I wouldn’t say this is the one, but this is obviously a very important one." J.K. Dobbins leads the way on the ground with 775 yards and five TDs for the Big Ten's top team in yards per carry (six).

TRENDS:


*Penn State is 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 conference games.
*Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Buckeyes' last four games overall.
*The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four matchups between these two sides.

CONSENSUS: The road dogs from Nittany Lions are picking up 71 percent of the action on the spread and Over is getting 54 percent of the totals selections.

 

[CNOTES]

[h=3][/h]

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 28 GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS BUFF at AKR 11:30 AM BUFF -1.5 RUTG at MICH 12:00 PM RUTG +23.0 ***** WIS at ILL 12:00 PM WIS -27.0 ***** OKST at WVU 12:00 PM OKST -7.5 ARK at MISS 12:00 PM MISS -2.5 MIA at UNC 12:00 PM MIA -21.0 TEX at BAY 12:00 PM BAY +10.0 ***** LOU at WAKE 12:20 PM WAKE +2.5 ***** UVA at PITT 12:30 PM UVA +1.5 CAL at COLO 02:00 PM O 52.0 ***** FIU at MRSH 02:30 PM MRSH -16.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Afternoon Best Bets:


SJSU at BYU 03:00 PM
O 53.5


AFA at CSU 03:00 PM
O 68.0 *****


KSU at KU 03:00 PM
KSU -24.0


IND at MD 03:30 PM
IND -6.5 *****


MSU at NW 03:30 PM
NW +1.5 *****


UCLA at WASH 03:30 PM
WASH -17.5


LT at RICE 03:30 PM
LT -11.5 *****


PSU at OSU 03:30 PM
OSU -7.0 *****


UGA at FLA 03:30 PM
UGA -12.5 *****


NCST at ND 03:30 PM
NCST +6.5 *****


TCU at ISU 03:30 PM
ISU +7.0 *****


GASO at TROY 03:30 PM
TROY -24.0


APP at MASS 03:30 PM
MASS +3.5 *****


HOU at USF 03:45 PM
USF -10.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

VAN at SOCAR 04:00 PM
SOCAR -7.0
U 44.5 *****


FAU at WKU 04:30 PM
FAU -6.5 *****


PEAY at UCF 05:00 PM
UCF -44.0


ULM at IDHO 05:00 PM
O 61.5 *****


UTAH at ORE 05:45 PM
U 49.0


TXST at CCAR 06:00 PM
CCAR -10.0


MIZZ at CONN 06:30 PM
MIZZ -14.0 *****


MINN at IOWA 06:30 PM
MINN +7.0 *****


ODU at UNT 06:30 PM
O 61.0

 

[CNOTES]

my goy goes later this evening.........good luck all !

 

[CNOTES]

Evening Best Bets:


WSU at ARIZ 09:30 PM
ARIZ -1.0 *****
U 63.0


BSU at USU 10:00 PM
USU +10.5 *****


UNLV at FRES 10:00 PM
UNLV +21.5
O 58.5 *****


USC at ASU 10:45 PM
ASU +4.5 *********** GOY


SDSU at HAW 11:15 PM
HAW +8.5

 

[CNOTES]

Top 25 Capsules
October 28, 2017


COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) J.T. Barrett hit Marcus Baugh with a 16-yard touchdown pass with 1:48 left in the fourth quarter and No. 6 Ohio State rallied from 11 points down in the final five minutes to hand No. 2 Penn State its first loss, 39-38 on Saturday.


Barrett played one of the best games of his decorated career, going 33 for 39 for 328 yards and four touchdown passes, three in the fourth quarter after the Buckeyes (7-1, 5-0 Big Ten) were down 35-20.


Penn State led 38-27 with 5:42 left and it looked as if the Nittany Lions (7-1, 4-1) were going to knock the Buckeyes out of the College Football Playoff race and put a firm grip on the Big Ten East. Barrett wouldn't let that happen.


No. 3 GEORGIA 42, FLORIDA 7


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - Sony Michel put Georgia up big early and put Florida away late, scoring on two long runs in a drubbing that might have been the final game for Gators coach Jim McElwain.


Michel finished with 137 yards rushing on just six carries and helped the Bulldogs remain unbeaten and in control in the Southeastern Conference's Eastern Division.


Nick Chubb also scored for the Bulldogs (8-0, 5-0 SEC), who ended a three-game losing streak in ''The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party'' and started 8-0 for the first time since 2002.


Lift a glass to Georgia.


Pour one out for McElwain?


Florida (3-4, 3-3) started the day by responding to a tweet from a sports lawyer who said Florida and McElwain's agent, Jimmy Sexton, have engaged in buyout negotiations and are ''miles apart.''


No. 25 IOWA STATE 14, No. 4 TCU 7


AMES, Iowa (AP) - Kyle Kempt threw for 202 yards and two touchdowns and Iowa State upset TCU, handing the Horned Frogs their first defeat and leaving the Big 12 without an unbeaten team.


Marcel Spears intercepted a Kenny Hill pass with 1:16 left to seal it for the Cyclones (6-2, 4-1 Big 12), who forced a pair of turnovers in the red zone in the second half in winning their fourth straight game.


Kempt put Iowa State ahead 14-0 at the break with touchdown passes to Matt Eaton (17 yards) and Hakeem Butler (4 yards).


TCU (7-1, 4-1) answered to open the second half on a 94-yard kickoff return by KaVontae Turpin. But Brian Peavy intercepted Hill in the end zone in the third quarter and brought it back 70 yards, and Willie Harvey caused Hill to fumble a ball recovered by Iowa State at its own 15-yard line with 7:11 to go.


No. 5 WISCONSIN 24, ILLINOIS 10


CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (AP) - Alec Ingold and Garrett Groshek scored on short runs in the first half, offensive lineman Michael Deiter added another touchdown on a trick play late in the game, and Wisconsin beat Illinois to remain unbeaten.


Star running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for just 73 yards but didn't appear in the second half for Wisconsin because of a left leg injury. The freshman entered the game averaging 158.6 yards rushing.


Despite Taylor's absence, Alex Hornibrook made enough throws to get the team's eighth win. None was better than on the trick play that freed Deiter for his first career touchdown.


Hornibrook dropped back on third-and-goal from the 4 and rushed right before throwing a backward pass to Deiter on the other side. Deiter caught it and hustled his 328-pound frame in for the score.


Wisconsin (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) gained 306 yards, well below its season average of 462.7 yards, but was able to overcome a sluggish performance for its 11th consecutive conference victory.


No. 7 CLEMSON 24, GEORGIA TECH 10


CLEMSON, S.C. (AP) - Kelly Bryant threw for 207 yards and two touchdowns and Clemson bounced back from its first loss of the season with a dominating win.


Bryant showed few negative effects from injuries that knocked him out early of the Tigers' past two games - a sprained left ankle in the third quarter of a win over Wake Forest on Oct. 7 and a concussion in the second quarter of a loss at Syracuse on Oct. 13. It was an unsettling two weeks - Clemson was off last Saturday - with plenty of questions, introspection and worries about Bryant's health.


The Clemson junior put all the worrying to rest early on. He connected on a 38-yard TD pass to Deon Cain less than three minutes into the game. Bryant zipped a 20-yard pass to tight end Milan Richard to put the Tigers (7-1, 5-1 Atlantic Coast Conference) ahead 14-3 and cruise to their third straight win over Georgia Tech.


The Tigers' defense made sure that was more than enough to hold off the Yellow Jackets (4-3, 3-2). Clemson had 11 tackles for loss and held Georgia Tech's league-leading - and often confounding - triple-option run game to 198 yards, 175 fewer than their average. TaQuon Marshall, the ACC's leading rusher with 117 yard average, managed just 23 yards that included his 22-yard TD run in the fourth quarter.


No. 8 MIAMI 24, NORTH CAROLINA 19


CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (AP) - Malik Rosier threw for a career-high 356 yards with three touchdowns to help Miami hold off North Carolina.


Rosier had a 51-yard touchdown throw to Christopher Herndon IV late in the first half and a 78-yarder to Jeff Thomas to open the third quarter. His 5-yarder to Braxton Berrios gave the Hurricanes (7-0, 5-0 Atlantic Coast Conference) a 24-13 fourth-quarter lead.


Still, Miami had to come up with a couple late plays after UNC made it a one-score game.


No. 9 NOTRE DAME 35, No. 14 NORTH CAROLINA STATE 14


SOUTH BEND, Ind. (AP) - Julian Love returned his second interception of the season for a touchdown and running back Josh Adams had another big day, rushing for 202 yards, to help Notre Dame beat North Carolina State.


The sixth straight victory by Brian Kelly's Irish, now 7-1, avenged a 10-3 loss at N.C. State last year in the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew. N.C. State (6-2) saw its six-game winning streak come to an end.


Love's 69-yard return behind a convey of his defensive mates with 12:05 left in the third quarter ended N.C. State quarterback Ryan Finley's streak of consecutive passes without throwing an interception at 339. Love, who also broke up three other Finley attempts, had a 50-yard interception return for a TD in Notre Dame's 38-18 victory at Michigan State.


No. 10 OKLAHOMA 49, TEXAS TECH 27


NORMAN, Okla. (AP) - Baker Mayfield completed 22 of 34 passes for 281 yards and four touchdowns, and ran for another score to lead Oklahoma.


Rodney Anderson had 181 yards rushing and a touchdown, and Abdul Adams returned from a two-game absence due to an ankle injury to add 95 yards rushing on 10 carries for the Sooners (7-1, 4-1 Big 12).


CeeDee Lamb totaled nine receptions for 147 yards and two touchdowns, while Mark Andrews added six catches for 79 yards and a touchdown for Oklahoma, which amassed 617 yards of total offense.


Nic Shimonek passed for 322 yards and four touchdowns on 22 of 36 passing for Texas Tech (4-4, 1-4). Tre King had 113 yards rushing on 24 carries, while T.J. Vasher added five receptions for 98 yards, and Keke Coutee had four catches for 93 yards and a touchdown. Cameron Batson added two receiving touchdowns.


No. 11 OKLAHOMA STATE 50, No. 22 WEST VIRGINIA 39


MORGANTOWN, W.Va. (AP) - Mason Rudolph threw three touchdown passes and ran for another score to lead Oklahoma State to a victory over West Virginia.


Freshman J.D. King ran for a season-high 142 yards and scored twice in place of Big 12 leading rusher Justice Hill for the Cowboys (7-1, 4-1 Big 12).


In winning its fourth straight, Oklahoma State scored four touchdowns following West Virginia turnovers and the Mountaineers couldn't come back from their biggest deficit of the season.


Rudolph, the national passing yards leader, stood out in a steady light rain in a matchup against West Virginia's Will Grier, who entered the game first in the FBS with 26 touchdown passes.


No. 12 WASHINGTON 44, UCLA 23


SEATTLE (AP) - Myles Gaskin led Washington's running onslaught with 169 yards and one touchdown, Lavon Coleman added 94 yards and three touchdown runs and the Huskies routed UCLA.


The Huskies (7-1, 4-1 Pac-12) bounced back from their first loss of the season two weeks ago at Arizona State by running through the worst run defense in the country. Quarterback Jake Browning was mostly a nonfactor because he didn't need to throw; Gaskin and his friends had more than enough success on the ground.


Washington finished with 333 yards rushing as a team, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Gaskin finally found the end zone late in the third quarter on a 6-yard run. Coleman scored on runs of 1, 33 and 13 yards, and Browning added a 1-yard quarterback sneak early in the second quarter after it appeared Gaskin had scored on the previous play.


UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen was 12 of 21 passing for 93 yards and was sacked four times. Rosen was pulled midway through the third quarter and later was on the sideline in sweats. He had been limping after being sacked in the second quarter by Washington's Austin Joyner. Rosen threw a 7-yard TD pass to Jordan Wilson in the second quarter, but Washington scored the next 27 points.


No. 13 VIRGINIA TECH 24, DUKE 3


BLACKSBURG, Va. (AP) - Josh Jackson threw for a touchdown and ran for another to lead Virginia Tech to a win over Duke.


Jackson hit Sean Savoy with a 26-yard pass just before halftime to give the Hokies (7-1, 3-1 Atlantic Coast Conference) a 17-3 lead. He scored on a 6-yard run in the third quarter, all but cementing Virginia Tech's third victory in a row on a night when it rained for most of the second half and footing became increasingly uncertain.


The Blue Devils (4-5, 1-5) lost their fifth in a row.


ARIZONA 58, No. 15 WASHINGTON STATE 37


TUCSON, Ariz. (AP) - Khalil Tate, in his fourth straight spectacular performance, rushed for 158 yards and a touchdown and passed for 275 more and two scores, leading surprising Arizona past Washington State for its fourth consecutive Pac-12 victory.


J.J. Taylor gained 157 yards on 13 carries for Arizona (6-2, 4-1), including touchdown runs of 79 and 3 yards after Washington State (7-2, 4-2) had rallied to take the lead in the third quarter behind backup quarterback Tyler Hilinski.


The loss knocked Washington State out of a tie with Stanford for first place in the Pac-12 North. The Wildcats remain in the thick of things in the Pac-12 South.


Hilinski replaced Luke Falk late in the first half and ignited what had been a sputtering offense. The redshirt sophomore completed 45 of 61 passes for 509 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for two scores but was intercepted four times, the last one returned 66 yards by Colin Schooler for a touchdown.


Falk, on the brink of breaking a couple more Pac-12 career passing records, played catch on the sideline and didn't appear injured.


NORTHWESTERN 39, No. 16 MICHIGAN STATE 31, 3 OT


EVANSTON, Ill. (AP) - Clayton Thorson threw a 22-yard touchdown to Flynn Nagel in the third overtime, Nate Hall intercepted Brian Lewerke, and Northwestern beat Michigan State.


The Wildcats (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) had a third down at the 22 when Thorson hit Nagel on a slant for the go-ahead TD.


Cameron Green caught the two-point conversion to make it an eight-point game, and two big plays by the defense preserved the victory over the Spartans (6-2, 4-1).


Lineman Joe Gaziano stripped Brian Lewerke as he dropped back. Lewerke picked up the loose ball and fired toward the goal line, where Hall intercepted a pass intended for Matt Sokol.


That set off a wild celebration, with the sideline emptying and fans pouring out of the stands.


HOUSTON 28, No. 17 SOUTH FLORIDA 24


TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - D'Eriq King kept Houston's hopes alive with a 30-yard completion on fourth-and-24, then finished a game-winning drive with a 20-yard touchdown run with 11 seconds remaining, lifting the Cougars over South Florida.


The sophomore who has split time between receiver and quarterback replaced starter Kyle Postma in the first half. He began slowly before leading Houston (5-3, 3-2) on three long scoring drives to position themselves for an upset.


King threw a 39-yard TD pass Courtney Lark early in the third quarter. Mulbah Car scored on a 4-yard run to make it 14-14, and King finished a 75-yard march with a 3-yard TD that made it 21-all with 6:20 remaining.


Quinton Flowers, who threw for 325 yards and scored on runs of 1 and 3 yards for USF (7-1, 4-1), did all he could to give the Bulls a chance to remain unbeaten.


No. 18 UCF 73, AUSTIN PEAY 33


ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) - McKenzie Milton threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns and scored another on the ground and No. 18 UCF reinforced its reputation for having one of the most explosive offenses in the country with a win over Austin Peay.


The 73 points scored was a school record for the Knights, who lead the nation in scoring. UCF scored on 11 of 12 possessions. It's the first time in program history that the Knights have started the season 7-0.


Milton completed his first 14 passes and finished the game 24 of 26. He scored on a 3-yard run before going to the bench in the middle of the third quarter.


Dredrick Snelson caught five of Milton's passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns. Mike Hughes had a 91-yard kickoff return for a score and Shaquem Griffin returned a fumble 20 yards for a touchdown.


No. 21 USC 48, ARIZONA STATE 17


TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) - Ronald Jones II ran for 216 yards and two touchdowns, Sam Darnold revved up Southern California's offense with three scoring passes and the Trojans rolled over Arizona State.


USC (7-2, 5-1 Pac-12) rebounded from a 49-19 thumping by No. 9 Notre Dame last week by racking up 607 total yards to remain atop the Pac-12 South.


Darnold completed 19 of 35 passes for 266 yards, and Tyler Vaughns had six catches for 126 yards with a pair of scores. Jones helped the Trojans pick up 341 yards rushing after they were limited to 76 against the Fighting Irish.


Arizona State (4-4, 3-2) relapsed on defense after consecutive strong showings, missing tackles and assignments while giving up multiple big plays.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's best
October 28, 2017


STARS


-Lamar Jackson, Louisville, accounted for 491 yards and four TDs in a 42-32 loss to Wake Forest.


-John Wolford, Wake Forest, threw for 461 yards and four of his five TD passes to Greg Dortch, leading the Demon Deacons past Louisville 42-32.


-Drew Lock, Missouri, threw for 377 yards and five TDs to help the Tigers rout Connecticut 52-12.


-Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State, threw three TD passes and ran for another score to lead the No. 11 Cowboys to a 50-39 victory over No. 22 West Virginia.


-Malik Rosier, Miami, threw for a career-high 356 yards with three TDs to help the eighth-ranked Hurricanes hold off North Carolina 24-19.


-Devin Singletary, Florida Atlantic, ran for 244 yards and four TDs in a 42-28 win over Western Kentucky.


-Antonio Wilcox, Furman, ran for 202 yards and a score in a 28-6 win over Western Carolina.


-Myles Gaskin, Washington, ran for 169 yards and a TD to help the the 12th-ranked Huskies rout UCLA 44-23.


-Taryn Christion, South Dakota State, threw for 386 yards and five TDs in a 52-24 win over Western Illinois.


-Austin Howard, Southern, threw for five TDs in a 47-40 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff.


-Peyton Huslig, Missouri State, accounted for 385 yards and four TDs in a 59-20 victory over Indiana State.


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BUCKEYE COMEBACK


Ohio State coach Urban Meyer called it the best he has ever seen a quarterback play.


J.T. Barrett capped the greatest game of his decorated career with a 16-yard touchdown pass to Marcus Baugh with 1:48 left in the fourth quarter and No. 6 Ohio State rallied from 11 down in the final five minutes to hand No. 2 Penn State its first loss, 39-38.


Barrett was near flawless, going 33 for 39 for 328 yards and four touchdown passes, three in the fourth quarter after the Buckeyes were down 35-20.


Penn State led 38-27 with 5:42 left and it looked as if the Nittany Lions were going to knock the Buckeyes out of the College Football Playoff race and put a firm grip on the Big Ten East. Saquon Barkley scored two long touchdowns for Penn State, but it was Barrett who surged into the Heisman Trophy race in what was billed as the Big Ten game of the year and lived up to the hype.


---


FROGS GO DOWN


TCU is no longer unbeaten.


The Horned Frogs have only themselves - and a resurgent Iowa State defense - to blame.


Kyle Kempt threw for 202 yards and two touchdowns and 25th-ranked Iowa State upset fourth-ranked TCU 14-7, leaving the Big 12 without an undefeated team heading into November.


Iowa State's win might have seriously hampered the league's ability to get a team into the playoff after missing out a year ago. But TCU coach Gary Patterson believes the Horned Frogs still control their own destiny.


TCU, Oklahoma State and Iowa State are tied atop the league at 4-1 and the Cowboys play in Ames in two weeks.


---


NUMBERS


3-Fumbles recovered by North Dakota State's Levi Jordheim against Northern Iowa, tying the school record set in 1976 by Don Meyers.


29-Career victories by Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph , breaking the school record set by current coach Mike Gundy from 1986 to 1989.


73-Points by No. 18 UCF in its 40-point win over Austin Peay, a school record.


---


COCKTAIL THUMPING


Call it a Cocktail Party thumping.


Sony Michel put third-ranked Georgia up big early and put Florida away late, scoring on two long runs in a 42-7 drubbing that might have been the final game for Gators coach Jim McElwain. It was Florida's most lopsided loss in the series since a 44-0 shutout in 1982.


Michel finished with 137 yards rushing on just six carries and helped the Bulldogs remain unbeaten and in control in the Southeastern Conference's Eastern Division.


Nick Chubb also scored for Georgia, which started 8-0 for the first time since 2002 and ended a three-game losing streak in ''The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.''

 

[CNOTES]

CFB Ocotber's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/28/2017 17-23-2 42.50% -41.50
10/27/2017 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
10/26/2017 5-2-0 71.43% +14.00
10/21/2017 34-22-0 60.71% +49.00
10/20/2017 3-5-0 37.50% -12.50
10/19/2017 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
10/14/2017 36-24-0 60.00% +48.00
10/13/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/11/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/07/2017 19-32-1 36.73% -80.50
10/06/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50
10/05/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/04/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50




Total..............90 - 97.......48.12%%.....- 58.00








Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS


10/28/2017......................10 - 8 - 1......+6.00...................2 - 3................-6.50
10/27/2017.......................1 - 2............-6.00....................1 - 2................-6.00
10/26/2017......................2 - 1.............+4.50...................2 - 1................+4.50
10/21/2017.....................15 - 7............+36.50................3 - 1.................+9.50
10/20/2017......................2 - 0............+10.00..................1 - 2.................-6.00
10/19/2017......................1 - 1.............-0.50....................1 - 1.................-0.50
10/14/2017.....................16- 9.............+30.50.................1 - 1.................-0.50
10/13/2017......................2 - 0.............+10.00.................1 - 1.................-0.50
10/11/2017......................0 - 1..............-5.50...................0 - 1.................-5.50
10/07/2017.....................11 - 15..........- 27.50..................0 - 3................-16.50
10/06/2017......................2 - 1.............+4.50...................3 - 1................+9.50
10/05/2017......................1 - 0.............+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00
10/04/2017......................0 - 1..............-5.50...................1 - 0................+5.00




Totals..........................65 - 46 - 1............+59.25..................17 - 17..............-8.50

 

[CNOTES]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 9
October 29, 2017


Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the ninth big college football weekend to close down October. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.


South Carolina (-7) 34, Vanderbilt 27: The Commodores trailed just 24-20 well into the third quarter, but early in the fourth quarter, South Carolina had pulled away with a 34-20 edge. Vanderbilt responded with a 14-play touchdown drive to trail by seven and that is where the final score ended as Vanderbilt was stopped at the South Carolina 40-yard-line on its final possession. A blocked Vanderbilt extra-point in the second quarter would up being a critical play with the closing line push, though some Gamecocks backers were able to snag -6½.


Akron (+3) 21, Buffalo 20: Buffalo led 20-14 early in the fourth quarter and that lead looked like it might hold after a big interception gave the Bulls the ball back on a missed scoring opportunity for Akron. The Bulls picked up 39 yards on their next drive but were forced to punt, pinning Akron at the 9-yard-line. It only took the Zips nine plays for a go-ahead touchdown drive, leading by one with fewer than five minutes remaining. Buffalo delivered a late threat to take the lead back, but a 46-yard field goal was missed although the spread result proved mixed as Akron opened at -3 before climbing to -5 before a flip with Buffalo -1 and then eventually -3 by Saturday.


Oklahoma State (-8½) 50, West Virginia 39: This Big XII game featured nine turnovers and a solid 20-point Cowboys lead melted in the final minutes of the third quarter with the Mountaineers scoring on a blocked punt return and an interception return in the span of 50 seconds of game clock to make it a six-point game. Oklahoma State would pull away in the fourth, capitalizing on an interception to set-up one of three short field scores in the final frame and eventually winning by 11.


Maryland (+6½) 42, Indiana 39: With a common week spread of -4½, Indiana sat up by five heading into the fourth quarter, but Maryland would score its third touchdown of the game on a drive with fewer than 20 yards of offense to take a two-point edge as special teams proved to be the difference in this Big Ten East battle. Maryland added another touchdown to lead by nine before Indiana responded to get back within two with still more than eight minutes remaining. Maryland controlled the field position the rest of the way and productive Indiana drives didn’t get the Hoosiers any points as Indiana moved to 0-5 in Big Ten play despite massive advantages in this box score including a 35-18 edge in first downs.


Louisiana Tech (-12) 42, Rice 28: The Bulldogs led by 14 heading into the fourth quarter, but Rice managed to tie the game with 4:33 remaining with a 51-yard pass play. The Bulldogs managed to deliver a 75-yard touchdown drive, but with the game into the final minute the favorite cover seemed highly unlikely. A 37-yard interception return touchdown with 36 seconds remaining handed Louisiana Tech a narrow favorite cover in a game they were +4 in turnovers, offsetting a slight yardage deficit.


Northwestern (+1½) 39, Michigan State 31: Northwestern led 17-10 in the fourth quarter, but Michigan State managed to tie the game with just 25 seconds remaining, after earlier missing a field goal in the fourth quarter. With a near even spread the overtime winner would also cover in most scenarios though those on the ‘under’ in one of the lowest totals of the day certainly cursed the need for extra session(s). Both teams found the end zone with relative ease in each of the first two overtimes and in the third overtime, a Northwestern touchdown made the overtime scoring match the regulation scoring. Needing to go for two, the Wildcats converted for a commanding eight-point edge and sealed the game with an interception on a forced second down throw from the Spartans.


Florida Atlantic (-6) 42, Western Kentucky 28: This line climbed sharply early in the week jumping from -2 to briefly -7 before settling at -6 by kickoff. It didn’t appear to matter as Western Kentucky led 28-20 through three quarters. In the fourth quarter, the Owls took over with touchdowns on a 60-yard run with a two-point-conversion to tie the game and then a 49-yard pass play to lead by seven just six minutes into the final frame. FAU added another touchdown later in the fourth quarter and then sacked the Hilltoppers just outside the red zone on a 4th-and-3 play to seal the game and the road favorite cover.


Arkansas (+2½) 38, Mississippi 37: Ole Miss led 31-7 in the second quarter, but Arkansas managed two touchdowns in the final three minutes of the second quarter to stay in the game. Mississippi led by three entering the fourth, but had to settle for a pair of field goals on successful drives to only lead by nine just after the 10-minute mark. Arkansas got the big break it needed with a fumble return touchdown to climb back within two with six minutes to go and then delivered a game-winning field goal in the final seconds for an incredible comeback win.


Ohio State (-7½) 39, Penn State 38: Penn State started the game with a kickoff return touchdown and a 23-yard touchdown drive following a fumble as Ohio State was playing catch-up the whole game. The Buckeyes had dominant production numbers, but they still trailed by 15 heading into the fourth quarter. Ohio State managed to close to within five at the 4:20 mark and then took a 39-38 lead with 1:48 to play, missing going for two. The Buckeyes dominated on defense getting the ball back at the Penn State 36-yard line, with a miracle front door cover possible, but Penn State exhausted its final two timeouts and Ohio State picked up a first down to be able to run out the clock, winning but failing to cover despite a 529-283 edge in total yards.


Nebraska (+4) 25, Purdue 24: The Boilermakers led 24-12 early in the fourth quarter, but Nebraska delivered a touchdown strike to climb within five, sitting right near the spread. Nebraska went for it on 4th-and-6 from the Purdue 15 with still nearly seven minutes to go, failing in what looked like a defeat-sealing decision. The Nebraska defense held to get the ball back and went 70 yards in just over a minute, getting the go-ahead touchdown with just 14 seconds remaining.


Clemson (-14) 24, Georgia Tech 10: The Tigers were dominant statistically in this game, but after pulling ahead 24-3 early in the third quarter Clemson didn’t score again. After a fourth straight Clemson punt, Georgia Tech delivered a scoring drive that included a 4th-and-6 conversion near midfield, breaking a 22-yard run for a touchdown with under five minutes to go to save a push for many.


Virginia Tech (-17½) 24, Duke 3: After a pair of early turnovers handed Virginia Tech a 10-0 lead, then this ACC matchup turned into a defensive battle with both offenses struggling. With just 42 seconds before halftime a decent punt return set-up a Hokies touchdown just before the break and another marginal punt late in the third quarter set-up another Hokies score, getting past the spread with a 24-3 edge late in the third quarter. Duke appeared set to answer, but went backwards after reaching the Virginia Tech 24-yard line, opting to still go for it on 4th-and-14 and failing with 14 minutes to go. The next Duke drive reached the Virginia Tech 11-yard-line before another fourth down failure as the Hokies escaped with a narrow cover despite only scoring a few more points than the closing spread.


Iowa (-7) 17, Minnesota 10: Iowa led 14-0 through three quarters, but the Gophers made a late charge closing to 17-10 with just over four minutes remaining after Iowa held Minnesota out of the end zone from 1st-and-10 at the 15-yard-line. Minnesota got the ball back with over a minute remaining, but made little progress as Iowa held on for the win and a push on the closing line though some backers of the Gophers landed +7½ early in the week.


Arkansas State (-3½) 37, New Mexico State 21: The Aggies led 21-17 after scoring on the first play of the fourth quarter, but it was all ASU the rest of the way with back-to-back touchdowns in the span of three minutes for a 30-21 edge. An interception set-up another score for the Red Wolves for a misleading final result in a New Mexico State collapse.


Texas San Antonio (-15) 31, UTEP 14: With a 10-point edge, the Roadrunners had stalled on offense with back-to-back 3-and-outs, but a pick-6 put UTSA up by 17 just past the 11-minute mark in the fourth quarter. A late fumble gave UTEP a shot for the backdoor cover, eventually reaching the UTSA 34-yard-line before falling short on downs with the Roadrunners able to run out the final five minutes of clock for the narrow road favorite cover.

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 9
October 29, 2017


Overall Notes


COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 9 RESULTS
WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 41-15
Against the Spread 26-27-3


WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 31-25
Against the Spread 24-29-3


WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 30-26


The largest underdogs to win straight up
UNLV (+22, ML + ) at Fresno State, 26-16
Florida International (+15, ML +500) at Marshall, 41-30
Alabama-Birmingham (+11.5, ML +350) at Southern Mississippi, 30-12
Houston (+10, ML +320) at South Florida, 28-24
Texas State (+10, ML +300) at Coastal Carolina, 27-7
Air Force (+9.5, ML +280) at Colorado State, 45-28


The largest favorites to cover
Toledo (-25.5) at Ball State, 58-17
Michigan (-22) vs. Rutgers, 35-14
Oklahoma (-19.5) vs. Texas Tech, 49-27
Washington (-18.5) vs. UCLA, 44-23
Virginia Tech (-17) vs. Duke, 24-3
Texas-San Antonio (-15.5) at Texas-El Paso, 31-14


Top 25 Notes


-- Penn State-Ohio State lived up the hype, as the Buckeyes rallied for a 39-38 victory against the Nittany Lions in one of the most entertaining games of the 2017 season so far. Neither team really deserved to lose in a Big Ten classic. Although there were several mistakes on both sides, no one can deny these are among the best teams in the nation. We'll find out on Tuesday where each is ranked in the first installment of the College Football Playoff rankings. The 'over' has cashed in five straight for the Buckeyes, as they have scored 38 or more points in six straight outings. ... Miami-Florida stayed unbeaten, but they didn't look terribly impressive against a 1-8 SU/2-7 ATS North Carolina side. The Hurricanes are 7-0 SU, but they have failed to cover in each of their past three. The 'under' is also a perfect 5-0 over their past five, and 6-1 overall on the season.


-- Oklahoma State-West Virginia was a game that kept the scoreboard operator on his/her toes at Mylan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown. The total (78) was the highest on the board, but it wasn't close to enough. The Cowboys and Mountaineers put on a show, particularly in the fourth quarter, where the two teams combined for a total of 35 points. OSU won 50-39, improving to 5-3 ATS, including 3-2 ATS on the road. The 'over' is also 5-3 for OK State.


-- North Carolina State-Notre Dame was one of the big games of the weekend that did not live up to the billing. The Wolfpack kept it close early on, but the Irish ran the ball well against one of the nation's best rush defenses. Notre Dame outscored the Pack 28-7 in the second and third quarter en route to a 21-point win and easy cover. The Irish have won and covered six in a row, and their only loss is against a very good Georgia side.


-- South Florida was knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten, as Houston potentially spoiled their New Year's Day bowl aspirations with a 28-24 win in Tampa. The Bulls slipped to 7-1 SU and just 4-4 ATS, including 1-2 ATS in three games at home.


-- Virginia Tech picked up a 24-3 victory against Duke in Blacksburg. They improved to 5-3 ATS, including 3-1 ATS over their past four at home. They'll look for a season-high third straight cover in their showdown in Miami next weekend in a very important ACC battle with playoff implications.


Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)


-- Boston College cleared the stands on Red Bandana Day, as they registered an impressive 35-3 win against Florida State for their sixth consecutive cover. They have rattled off three straight ACC wins, too, winning the past two by an average of 31.5 PPG. ... Wake Forest continues to be a tough out in Winston-Salem, and they surprised Louisville 42-32. The Demon Deacons are 3-1 SU/3-0-1 ATS in four games at home. The Cardinals will be happy they have no more trips to the Tar Heel State, as they're 1-2 SU/ATS in three trips this season.


-- Rutgers was unable to go to the Big House and beat Michigan, but they did hang on for the cover as 22-point underdogs. The Scarlet Knights are now 5-1 ATS over the past six outings, and 6-2 ATS in eight games overall. ... Nebraska snapped a two-game skid with a 25-24 comeback win at Purdue. The Huskers picked up just their third cover in eight games, and they haven't covered in consecutive games yet. ... The Huskers will face Northwestern next week. The Wildcats topped Michigan State in triple-overtime, earning their season-best third straight cover. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS over their past six outings, too.


-- Texas rolled to a 38-7 win, keeping Baylor winless. The Longhorns improved to just 4-4 SU, but they're a very impressive 6-0-1 ATS over their past seven outings, including covers in each of their three road outings. They will look to add to the woes of Texas Christian next weekend in Fort Worth. ... The Horned Frogs tasted defeat for the first time, losing 14-7 at Iowa State. Not many expected the Cyclones to be a contender, but they're turning the Big 12 upside down with four straight wins and covers. They get another big test in Morgantown next Saturday.


-- Washington State fell 58-37 on the road at run-happy Arizona, their second setback in the past three games. After a four-game cover streak the Cougs are 1-2 ATS over the past three. The Wildcats are running hot, winning four in a row while going 3-1 ATS during the span. ... Oregon slapped the brakes on a three-game losing streak, besting equally cold Utah 41-20. The Ducks are still just 5-4 SU/4-5 ATS overall.


-- Georgia annihilated Florida 42-7 in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and it might be head coach Jim McElwain's last party against UGA. ... Another coach on the boiling hot seat is Butch Jones in Tennessee. The Vols lost for just the second time in 33 years to Kentucky, 29-26. The Vols were able to hang on for the cover, their first since Sept. 16. They also had scored a total of just 16 points over the past three games, but managed 26, their most since Week 2.


Mid-Major Report


-- Connecticut was roughed up by visiting Missouri, 52-12. The loss halted a two-game win and cover streak for the Huskies, who are now a dismal 2-6 ATS overall. The 'under' has hit for the third consecutive game for UConn. ... Tulsa continues to play much better defense than earlier in the season, but they came up just short on Friday at Southern Methodist. The Golden Hurricane have covered two of the past three, and the 'under' is 5-1 in the past six outings.


-- Florida Atlantic rolled to 42-28 victory on the road at Western Kentucky. The Owls have won and covered four in a row, and they're now the only team in Conference USA play without a loss in the league. The 'over' has hit in three straight, too, heading into their Friday night home game with Marshall. ... Speaking of the Herd, they were disappointed at home by FAU's rival, Florida International by a 41-30 count. That stopped a five-game win streak for the Herd. They also entered the game 6-1 ATS in their first seven, so FIU's win was quite the surprise.


-- Buffalo-Akron ended up hitting the 'under' (49). That's a familiar result for the Zips, as the under has cashed in eight of their first nine outings. The 'under' is 3-0 for Buffalo over their past three, too. ... Northern Illinois edged Eastern Michigan in overtime, 30-27. While NIU has won four straight, and six of the past seven, they're just 1-3 ATS over the past four. ... There is plenty of MACtion this week, starting Tuesday.


-- San Diego State bounced back after a two-game losing streak with a 28-7 win at Hawaii. The Aztecs turned in their fourth straight 'under' result, and the under is 6-2-1 in nine games overall. ... UNLV won outright at Fresno State, 26-16, despite entering as 22-point underdogs. It was the first win in four tries for the Runnin' Rebels. The 'under' is now 4-1 over the past five for UNLV. For the Bulldogs, it was their first non-cover of the season after opening 6-0-1 ATS.


Bad Beats


-- The Appalachian State-Massachusetts game ended up going to double-overtime, much to the dismay of 'under' (56.5) bettors. A field goal with :05 left in regulation helped the Minutemen extend the game. The teams exchanged touchdowns in the first overtime, essentially securing the over since the game was tied 27-27.


-- If you were holding an 'over' (47.5) ticket on the New Mexico-Wyoming game, my condolensces. The Cowboys led 42-0 at halftime, and you simply needed two field goals or one touchdown in the second half to get into the black. It never happened. The third quarter was scoreless, and the Lobos managed just one field in fourth quarter to account for all of the second-half scoring, leaving over bettors in utter disbelief.


-- If you were on Clemson -14, you were on the right side for a huge chunk of the game. Georgia Tech struck with 4:43 to go in regulation, cutting the lead to 24-10, causing the game to push at most shops.


-- If you were on Oregon State and the moneyline, your hopes for a giant payday were dashed by Stanford with :20 left in regulation, 15-14. An outright Beavers win would have paid +575.

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s six-pack
— World Series has been tied 2-2 42 times; the Game 5 winner won 28 of those 42 World Series.
— Knicks 116, Denver 110— Porzingis had 38, Knicks are fun to watch. I wonder why?
— Celtics 108, Spurs 94— San Antonio lost its last three games.
— Warriors 141, Clippers 113— Game was 74-57 at half; Clippers had been #1 in defense.
— Chiefs 29, Broncos 19— Broncos are now 0-3 on the road; their QB’s are substandard.
— Happy birthday to former LSU hoop coach Dale Brown, who turns 82 today.


**************************


Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……


13) New England traded backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers last night for a 2nd-round pick next April, but the 49ers’ 2nd-round pick figures to be the 33rd pick, pretty much a first round pick. Patriots don’t have a backup QB on their roster right now; would they be the team that signs Colin Kaepernick?


12) Following Twitter during the baseball game Sunday night was funny; people are so fickle, they overreact quickly and in a 13-12, 10-inning game, there is a lot to comment on.


11) One thing the great baseball game obscured was a pretty good football game in Detroit; Lions were putrid in red zone, scoring 9 points on five drives. Steelers’ JoJo Schuster-Smith caught a 97-yard touchdown pass, right after the Lions were stuffed on a goal-line stand by Pittsburgh.


10) Astros’ payroll this year is $124,343,900, broken down this way:
— Justin Verlander makes $28M a year, but he was only in Houston for a month, so his money isn’t included in the $124M figure you see up above.
— Other four starting pitchers made a combined $17,239,500 this season.
— Catcher Brian McCann makes $17M, DH Carlos Beltran makes $16M
— Yuli Gurriel, Josh Reddick made a combined $27.4M this season.
— Altuve/Springer/Correa/Bregman earned a combined $9.661,900 this season.


At some point, Astros have to shed some of these hitters and add pitching, or else we’re in for an endless stream of 13-12 playoff games. Gurriel/Reddick’s contracts seem excessive, Altuve is going to break the bank when he hits free agency (his agent is Scott Boras)


Seems logical that out of Correa/Springer/Bregman, two of them will wind up elsewhere.


Verlander is on the books for 2018 and 2019, both at $28M a season.


9) Detroit Lions gained 482 yards Sunday night but didn’t score a TD; only 1994 Bengals (496 yards vs Seattle) and ’86 49ers (501 yards) gained more yards without scoring a touchdown.


8) Washington Nationals named Dave Martinez manager; he has been Joe Maddon’s right-hand man for several years……….Phillies named Gabe Kapler skipper- both guys are first-time major leaguer managers.


7) ESPN’s Mike Breen also does play-by-play for the Knicks on MSG Network; he is the best at what he does because he is fair and smart.


Monday night, Knicks’ Doug McDermott took a 3-pointer in transition with 0:06.9 left in first quarter; he made it, but Denver came down an hit a 3-pointer of their own at the buzzer to end the quarter. Breen simply said: “That is why coaches like to hold the ball to take the last shot of a quarter, so the other team can’t score.”


6) Boston Celtics got an $8.4M salary cap exemption because of Gordon Hayward’s injury; they have to use it by March 10.


5) College basketball starts next week; Missouri Valley Conference is going downhill, with both Creighton/Wichita State jumping ship in recent years. Missouri State/Illinois State are expected to be the Valley’s frontrunners this winter.


4) Houston Texans traded disgruntled LT Duane Brown to Seattle, for CB Jerome Lane, a 5th round pick next year and a 2nd round draft pick in 2019.


3) You wonder why baseball teams coddle pitchers? Because they only last so long— look at the career of Fernando Valenzuela— from age 19-25, Valenzuela was 99-68, with an ERA of 2.94- he threw 257+ innings five years in a row. He was box office gold, for sure.


From age 26-36, he went 74-85, with an ERA of 4.55, bouncing around between five teams. You only have so many pitches in your arm. Valenzuela threw 149 pitches in a playoff game when he was 20. If that happened today (it wouldn’t), heads would roll.


2) Ticket brokers apparently own 15,000 tickets to both Games 6-7 of the World Series; should Houston win Game 6, those brokers would lose out of a potential $20M in profits with no Game 7 to benefit from.


1) RIP Lewis D’Antoni, 103, who passed away this weekend; the father of Rockets coach Mike and Marshall coach Dan D’Antoni, Lewis D’Antoni was a coach himself— I saw him interviewed in the stands at a Marshall game a couple years ago, when he was 101. Lot of energy even then; he lived a full life. RIP, sir.

 

[CNOTES]

Opening Line Report - Week 10
October 30, 2017


The college football’s Week 10 card features what looks to be a de facto ACC semifinal bracket, as Clemson visits N.C. State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) in matchup of the top two teams in the Atlantic Division, while Virginia Tech and Miami, Fl. meet at Hard Rock Stadium (8 p.m. ET, ABC) for Coastal Division supremacy.


In the earlier contest, Clemson opened a seven-point road favorite at the Wynn against an N.C. State team coming off a blowout loss at Notre Dame (35-14). While the number has remained at a touchdown at the Wynn, the game is being dealt -7.5 elsewhere in Las Vegas.


While most college football observers have Clemson rated higher than Notre Dame, N.C. State was catching 7.5 in South Bend, which may suggest Saturday’s number is generous for underdog bettors.


Clemson’s only loss of the season came against Syracuse and after starting quarterback Kelly Bryant was knocked out of the game with a concussion just before halftime. With Bryant healthy, Clemson is a no-doubt top-five team, according to William Hill U.S. director of trading Nick Bogdanovich.


“It’s always the reaction to what you saw last,” Bogdanovich said of the opening line for next week’s game in Raleigh. “N.C. State got hammered by a quality team; Clemson got their quarterback back and looked real good against Georgia Tech (in a 24-10 win).


“I see it sitting between 7 and 7.5, I think that’s a pretty good number.”


In the later ACC tilt, Virginia Tech opened -2.5 at Miami, a line that bounced between 2.5 and 3 in the first 24 hours of wagering at the Wynn. Miami remains undefeated but still isn’t getting much respect among pollsters and bookmakers alike.


Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons and CG Technology’s Jason Simbal share the opinion that Miami is fortunate to be 7-0.


“They’ve had three lucky wins (in their last four),” Simbal said, mentioning the Hurricanes’ victories over Florida State, Georgia Tech and North Carolina. “They played North Carolina, who’s terrible and had half their players benched, and they barely won (24-19 this past Saturday).”


Added Salmons, “Miami is an accident waiting to happen, and it’s not surprising that Virginia Tech is favored. I expect that line to go way over 3 as the game approaches, and I think Virginia Tech is going to kill ‘em. Miami is a complete fraud.”


Here are four more key games on Saturday’s college football card:


Penn State (-8) at Michigan State - (FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET)


Penn State opened -12 at the Wynn before a big early move on Michigan State pushed the spread all the way down to -8. Sharp bettors may be playing the college football handicapping theory that a national title contender often comes out flat the week after its first loss. Penn State, of course, blew a big lead to Ohio State on Saturday.


“There’s definitely something to that (theory),” Salmons said. “We learned through the years that when we came up with a play but the team had just lost (its first game) to throw it aside and not bet it.”


While Salmons believes the true line on this game is close to where the Wynn posted it, the number likely moved because of the difficult spot Penn State is in – playing its second straight road game off a devastating loss.


Bogdanovich concurred, and also said Michigan State can be tough catching points.


“Michigan State is good in the dog role because they’ve got a vanilla offense and play real good defense, and they’re catching Penn State off an absolute meltdown, so you figure they’ll be flat,” he said. “Those are some the reasons I’m sure it went down.”


Simbal, though, said he and his team were anticipating a much bigger number on this Big Ten showdown.


“I was shocked at that number, and getting bet the way it got bet is very surprising,” Simbal said.


Wake Forest at Notre Dame (-13.5) - (NBC, 3:30 p.m. ET)


This number returned to its opener at the Wynn after being bet as high as -14 and as low as -13.


Notre Dame is in fine form and covering lots of spreads (7-1 SU and ATS), but Wake Forest has been cashing plenty of tickets, too, going 6-2 ATS on the season so far.


Salmons believe the Demon Deacons can compete in South Bend.


“I think they can because the strength of the Wake team is their defense,” he said. “They kind of ran out of gas in the Georgia Tech game (a 38-24 loss two weeks ago), but their defense held Georgia Tech down for most of that game.


“Wake can hang around (at Notre Dame),” Salmons added. “That’s a team that is definitely trending upward bigtime. That coach (Dave Clawson) has done a great job there. “


Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (-3) - (FS1, 4:00 p.m. ET)


The Wynn opened Oklahoma State -3 (-120) with adjustments to the juice in the underdog’s direction but no change to the point spread. While 3.5s have popped up around town, they haven’t lasted long.


Simbal said he has Oklahoma State rated the No. 7 team in the country and Oklahoma State No. 8.


“Only small decimal places separate these teams, so give Oklahoma State the 3 points for being at home,” Simbal said, “I think 3 makes the most sense here. To me, it’s a pick ‘em game (on a neutral site).”


Bogdanovich said he has Oklahoma rated higher, “but not by much.”


Salmons foresees a high-scoring game rendering a point spread this tight meaningless.


“It’s going to be such a high-scoring game, the points aren’t going to mean a thing,” Salmons said. “Whoever wins this game, it’s not going to be 3-point game – someone’s going to win by probably 7 to 21 points, so the (spread is) irrelevant.”


Bogdanovich also sees a high-scoring Bedlam. “First one to 45 wins,” he deadpanned.


LSU at Alabama (-21.5) - (CBS, 8:00 p.m. ET)


Early bettors laid Alabama -21 at the Wynn, pushing the line to -21.5, but if these numbers seem big to you, the Westgate was dealing Alabama -24 on its Games of the Year board a week ago.


“The only good thing I can say about LSU is they had a bye week, but it’s hard to see how LSU is going to score a lot of points in this game,” Salmons said.


Bogdanovich, though, sees value with LSU getting three touchdowns.


“I’d lean to the dog here,” he said. “LSU’s still got talent. For Alabama to get away from that team, it would take a perfect game, so I can see why there’s been some dog money (he saw movement on the Tigers offshore). That number looks really high.”

 

[CNOTES]

Cyclones surge to top of the Big 12
October 30, 2017


AMES, Iowa (AP) Iowa State's rise to the top of the Big 12 standings has been one of the nation's biggest surprises this fall. The Cyclones can thank their vastly improved defense.


No. 14 Iowa State (6-2, 4-1 Big 12) has the league's top-rated defense through five games, allowing just 13.6 points in league outings and holding each of its opponents to at least 10 points below their season average. Iowa State put forth one of the best defensive efforts in school history last weekend, holding TCU's offense scoreless in a 14-7 win.


The Cyclones, who are in a four-way tie for first place in the Big 12, will face another potent offense during a visit to West Virginia on Saturday.


''I always tell our kids, `Be who you say you are.' And eventually you've got to stop saying and start doing,'' coach Matt Campbell said. ''We are having some of those moments where we are doing some positive things. You hope those things continue.''


Hardly anyone outside of Iowa State's football facility thought the Cyclones would be this good on that side of the ball.


The Cyclones ranked just 86th nationally in scoring defense in 2016, allowing 31.3 points a game, and their start to 2017 didn't suggest they had improved all that much. Iowa State gave up 24 points to Northern Iowa of the FCS and 44 in a loss at home to Iowa. But after allowing 14 points in the second quarter at Akron, the Cyclones defense found itself.


Iowa State has allowed just two offensive touchdowns- and one was by Texas Tech after the Red Raiders returned an interception to the Iowa State 7-yard line - in its last three games. TCU's only points came on a kickoff return, which allowed the Cyclones to win despite being shut out in the second half.


''I was never worried about my defense. My defense always holds it down,'' sophomore running back David Montgomery said.


Perhaps the biggest area of improvement for the Cyclones has come at linebacker.


Even though converted quarterback Joel Lanning (second in the Big 12 with 87 tackles) has gotten most of the attention, all three starters are playing at an all-conference clip.


Marcel Spears, a sophomore, was named the Big 12's defensive player of the week twice in a row after sealing his team's last two wins with interceptions in the fourth quarter. Spears ranks fourth in the Big 12 with 70 total tackles.


''You're starting to see a steady progression going forward, and it's really fun to watch,'' Campbell said. ''He's really talented, has great athleticism, great balance and is a really good tackler. Now you're starting to see his awareness (increase).''


Junior Willie Harvey is having his best season with 49 tackles, six tackles for loss, three sacks, a forced fumble, an interception and three pass breakups.


But the success of the unit hasn't been a surprise for Campbell, who expected his linebackers to take a leap forward in 2017 - in part because he expected the linemen in front of them to improve as well.


''I really, really thought that that group had a chance to be really special, and not because they're just great players but because of who those guys are,'' Campbell said. ''That linebacking corps is getting a lot of positive attention because of what that defensive line is doing as well.'

 

[CNOTES]

College football notebook: Saban calls rankings 'poison'
October 30, 2017


The first College Football Playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday night and Alabama coach Nick Saban is hardly intrigued.


"What significance does a poll have right now?" Saban rhetorically asked reporters at his Monday morning news conference. "All we're talking about here is the challenge of our season and where we're going to be in the poll if we don't play well in the next four games, so I'm focusing on the next four games. I could care less about the poll."


Saban is focusing on Saturday's opponent, No. 21 LSU.


The Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-0 SEC) has been the top-ranked team in both major polls throughout the season and has been a unanimous No. 1 in the coaches poll each of the last two weeks. Alabama is the only team to make appearances in each of the three College Football Playoffs and has won three of five games in the new format.


--Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh isn't usually forthcoming about personnel decisions, but he said that redshirt freshman quarterback Brandon Peters is "likely" to make his first start Saturday when the Wolverines (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) host Minnesota (4-4, 1-4).


Peters entered in the second quarter, replacing struggling John O'Korn last Saturday against Rutgers. Peters immediately led three consecutive touchdown drives in a 35-14 victory, finishing 10 of 14 for 124 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions.


"We're going in the way we have -- preparing both quarterbacks," Harbaugh said at his weekly press conference. "Not naming a starter today. We'll see how the week progresses. Our system is a meritocracy. The best players play."


--Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate won an unprecedented fourth consecutive Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week award.


Tate had an incredible October, coming in for an injured Brandon Dawkins early in a win at Colorado on Oct. 7. He rushed for 840 yards in four games this month, including touchdown runs of 58, 28, 47, 75, 45, 71, 76 and 49 yards. He ripped off an 82-yard run down to the 2 last week in a 57-38 victory over then-No. 15 Washington State.


Tate, a sophomore, threw for a career-high 275 yards on 10-of-17 passing against the Cougars, also rushing for 146 yards. He accounted for three touchdowns and directed an offense that produced seven plays of 40-plus yards.


--Washington true freshman tight end Hunter Bryant, second on the team in receptions, will miss "a significant amount of time," Huskies coach Chris Petersen said.


Petersen said at his weekly press conference that he was still awaiting final word from tests done on Bryant's left leg, injured in Saturday's 44-23 victory over UCLA. It seems Bryant will miss at least the rest of the regular season.


Bryant has made 21 catches for 314 yards and one touchdown. His injury further depletes a pass-catching corps that lost slot receiver Chico McClatcher to a broken ankle in late September.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Long Sheet


Tuesday, October 31


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BOWLING GREEN (1 - 7) at KENT ST (2 - 6) - 10/31/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
BOWLING GREEN is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
BOWLING GREEN is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
BOWLING GREEN is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
BOWLING GREEN is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 against the spread versus KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 straight up against KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MIAMI OHIO (3 - 5) at OHIO U (6 - 2) - 10/31/2017, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO U is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
OHIO U is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NCAAF


Week 10


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tuesday, October 31


BOWLING GREEN @ KENT STATE
Bowling Green is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Kent State
Bowling Green is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kent State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kent State's last 6 games
Kent State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games


MIAMI-OH @ OHIO
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami-OH's last 8 games when playing Ohio
Miami-OH is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Ohio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami-OH
Ohio is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Miami-OH


--------------------------------------------


NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 10


Tuesday, October 31


Bowling Green @ Kent State


Game 301-302
October 31, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Bowling Green
68.662
Kent State
58.187
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Bowling Green
by 10 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Bowling Green
by 1 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Bowling Green
(-1 1/2); Under


Miami of Ohio @ Ohio


Game 303-304
October 31, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami of Ohio
69.628
Ohio
82.394
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio
by 13
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio
by 9
54
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio
(-9); Over








NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 10


Tuesday’s games
Bowling Green won its last four games with Kent State, pounding the Golden Flashes 48-0/42-7 the last two years. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in last eight series games. BG is 7-1 in its last eight visits to Kent; they’re 1-7 SU this year, including a loss to a I-AA team. Falcons are 1-3 on road, winning only MAC road game, 37-29 (+16) at Miami. Kent is 1-6 vs I-A teams, with all six losses by 14+ points; their only I-A win was also vs Miami. Four of last five Kent games stayed under the total; last three Bowling Green games went over the total.


Ohio won its last four games with Miami, beating Red Hawks 34-3/17-7 last two years; Bobcats are 10-1 in last 11 series games, 3-2 vs spread in last five played in Athens. Miami is 3-5 but was favored in 6 of the 8 games; they’re 1-3 on road, 1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 35-5-3 points. Under is 4-2 inn their last six games. Ohio won/covered five of last six games; Bobcats are 2-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 12-45 points. Ohio scored 48 points in each of its last two games. Over is 5-2 in Bobcat games this season.


------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 31
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


M-OH at OHIO 08:00 PM
OHIO -10.0 *****
O 53.0 *****


BGSU at KENT 08:00 PM
BGSU -2.5 *****
U 48.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Doege, Clair lead Bowling Green past Kent State 44-16
October 31, 2017


KENT, Ohio (AP) Jarret Doege threw for two touchdowns and ran for another, Andrew Clair surpassed 100 yards rushing for the fourth straight game and the two freshmen led Bowling Green to a 44-16 win over Kent State on Tuesday night.


Doege went 14 of 18 for 174 yards, connecting with Datrin Guyton for a 36-yard TD and Teo Redding for a 7-yard score. Clair picked up 111 yards on eight carries, including a 3-yard touchdown to opening the scoring. He is the first back with four-straight 100 yard games for the Falcons (2-3, 2-7 Mid-American Conference) since 2013.


Nate Locke led the defense with five tackles for loss, the first Bowling Green player to do that in seven years. The Falcons had four sacks, three interceptions and their nation-best 13th fumble recovery.


George Bollas completed 16 of 35 passes for 140 yards and ran for 84 with a touchdown for the Golden Flashes (2-7, 1-4).


Bowling Green won for the 60th time in the 85-game series.

 

[CNOTES]

CFB Ocotber's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/31/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50
10/28/2017 17-23-2 42.50% -41.50
10/27/2017 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
10/26/2017 5-2-0 71.43% +14.00
10/21/2017 34-22-0 60.71% +49.00
10/20/2017 3-5-0 37.50% -12.50
10/19/2017 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
10/14/2017 36-24-0 60.00% +48.00
10/13/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/11/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/07/2017 19-32-1 36.73% -80.50
10/06/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50
10/05/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/04/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


Total..............93 - 98.......48.69%%.....- 49.50


Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS


10/31/2017......................2 - 0............+10.00..................1 - 1...............-0.50
10/28/2017......................10 - 8 - 1......+6.00...................2 - 3................-6.50
10/27/2017.......................1 - 2............-6.00....................1 - 2................-6.00
10/26/2017......................2 - 1.............+4.50...................2 - 1................+4.50
10/21/2017.....................15 - 7............+36.50................3 - 1.................+9.50
10/20/2017......................2 - 0............+10.00..................1 - 2.................-6.00
10/19/2017......................1 - 1.............-0.50....................1 - 1.................-0.50
10/14/2017.....................16- 9.............+30.50.................1 - 1.................-0.50
10/13/2017......................2 - 0.............+10.00.................1 - 1.................-0.50
10/11/2017......................0 - 1..............-5.50...................0 - 1.................-5.50
10/07/2017.....................11 - 15..........- 27.50..................0 - 3................-16.50
10/06/2017......................2 - 1.............+4.50...................3 - 1................+9.50
10/05/2017......................1 - 0.............+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00
10/04/2017......................0 - 1..............-5.50...................1 - 0................+5.00


Totals..........................67 - 46 - 1............+69.25..................18 - 18..............-9.00

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s six-pack


NFL trends with Week 9 approaching…….
— Carolina covered twice in its last ten home games.
— Buffalo is 5-1-1 vs spread in its last seven games.
— Colts are 3-7-1 in last 11 games as a divisional road underdog.
— Bengals covered once in last six tries as a road underdog.
— Arizona is 4-14 vs spread in its last 18 games.
— Denver is 9-17 as a non-divisional road underdog.


******************


Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings…….


13) First of all, our thoughts/prayers to the people who lost friends/family in New York City Tuesday afternoon, in another act of senseless violence.


Not sure what to say really, other than appreciate every day and hug the people you love and tell them you love them.


12) I’m not usually fond of beating a dead horse, but five minutes before the trade deadline Tuesday, Bengals/Browns agreed on a trade, with Cleveland sending 2nd/3rd round draft picks to Cincinnati for Cincy’s backup QB, AJ McCarron. Cleveland desperately needs a better QB


Cincinnati sent approval of the trade into the NFL office, but for whatever reason, the Browns sent their approval in late, and alas, the NFL wouldn’t approve the trade. There were murmurs on Twitter that the geniuses in Cleveland’s front office were celebrating the trade and simply neglected to do their job and send their approval into the NFL before 4pm, as the league’s rules require them to. Oy.


11) Like I said the other day, they should just fire all of them, the whole Browns’ front office. Their coaching staff and players deserve some help, don’t you think?


10) Miami Dolphins are 4-3 and are a playoff contender- they’re tied with Jacksonville for the second AFC Wild Card right now, but they traded their best RB Jay Ajayi to the Eagles Tuesday for a 4th-round draft pick.


9) Carolina Panthers sent WR Kelvin Benjamin to the Bills for 3rd and 7th-round picks.


8) Georgia-Alabama-Notre Dame-Clemson are the top four college football teams right now, as the countdown to the end of the regular season begins. Oklahoma/Ohio State are #5 and #6.


7) Denver Broncos turned the ball over 11 times in their last three games; you cannot win that way. Turnovers are a variable that makes picking NFL games so tough; Buffalo isn’t that good a team, but they’re +14 in turnovers, so they’re 5-2. Denver is -9 in its last three games, so they lost all three games.


Sometimes a QB is called “a game manager” and it sounds like an insult, but what it really means is that he doesn’t screw the game up by turning the ball over, and that is important.


6) The average lifespan of a $10 bill? 4.5 years, according to the TV show Pawn Stars.


5) It is interesting to watch TV and listen to political historians talk about current events and what will happen going forward, as far as investigations, witnesses flipping and then maybe charges being brought upon other people targeted by the prosecution.


If you watch Billions on Showtime, lot of the stuff that happened this week sounds familiar.


Hollywood scriptwriters must be smiling, as their future scripts get written for them.


4) If you’re ever having trouble sleeping late at night, NBA TV usually replays one of the better games of the night at 3am, a good way to kill some time while you’re heating up some milk or counting sheep until you can go back to sleep.


3) Phoenix Suns lost their first three games in embarrassing fashion, so they fired their coach and told Eric Bledsoe to go away until they could trade him- Bledsoe is/was one of their best players. A week later, and Bledsoe still hasn’t been traded- Suns are 2-1 since they changed coaches, but Bledsoe is still sitting there, collecting his $14,500,000 salary while working out, waiting to find out who his next employer will be.


2)


1) Antonio Cromartie played cornerback for 11 years in the NFL, for four teams, mostly the Jets and Chargers. He has six children with his wife; he has also fathered eight other children, by seven different women. He has fathered three children since having a vasectomy and re-defines the term “productive player”.


So of course, in this day and age, Cromartie and family will soon star in a reality TV show that begins on the USA Network November 9. Back when I was a kid, the Brady Bunch was a big TV show, husband/wife remarrying— she had three daughters, he had three sons. This is the 2017 version of that. Wonder who will reprise Ann B Davis’ role as the maid.


Cromartie pays $330,000 a year in child support, so maybe he needs the money. I guess it’ll be interesting to see how many of the seven other women get included in the show.