Stanford at Oregon State
October 24, 2017
After a very exciting Thursday night game between Memphis and Houston last week, this week’s game is not expected to be as competitive with a massive road favorite spread as Stanford visits Oregon State.
The Cardinal have recovered from a slow start to become a factor in the Pac-12 North race while the Beavers look to find some direction in a disappointing season. Here is a look at Thursday Night College Football.
Matchup: Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers
Venue: At Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon
Time/TV: Thursday, Oct. 26, 9:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Stanford -22, Over/Under 59½
Last Meeting: 2016, at Stanford (-16) 26, Oregon State 15
Leading the nation in rushing is Stanford junior Bryce Love with 1,387 yards, more than 200 yards ahead of the nation’s #2 rusher Zach Abey of Navy. He is emerging as a serious Heisman Trophy candidate and he will be in the spotlight week as Stanford looks to move to 5-1 in Pac-12 play playing at Oregon State as a heavy favorite in this week’s Thursday night ESPN game.
Love has averaged an astonishing 10.27 yards per carry which would be a new NCAA single-season record. Recognized with a minimum of just 6.25 carries per game the current record holder is Anthony Alridge for Houston in 2006 at 10.09 yards per carry but he had just 95 rushing attempts that season. Love already has 135 carries this season and the list of the top single-season rushers on a per carry basis is littered with secondary and 3rd down backs with big play ability, think Felix Jones or Percy Harvin in recent years.
The highest single-season average among backs with at least 200 carries is a fellow Pac-12 player and 2005 Heisman winner Reggie Bush at 8.70. Love could beat the record and yet not set the record however, as currently he has competition this season from Josh Adams at Notre Dame at 9.21 yards per carry and Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate who has averaged a outrageous 13.93 yards per carry. Tate’s average is sure to go down with more playing time however, currently playing in just five games this season but posting 780 yards on only 56 attempts.
This should be a game where Love can look to boost his statistics and bolster his Heisman Trophy credentials. Oregon State has allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season and the rest of the schedule is much more daunting for Love’s potential with Stanford facing more formidable run defenses in Washington State (3.4), Washington (#1 nationally at 2.2), California (4.4), and Notre Dame (3.6).
While the attention will be Love in a game that isn’t likely to impact the Pac-12 race, the Beavers shouldn’t be completely overlooked despite the miserable 1-6 record (2-5 ATS). Gary Andersen’s team showed some promise with several competitive late season efforts in 2016, climbing from 2-10 in his first season in Corvallis to 4-8 in 2016 and looking like a team that might make another step forward in 2017.
Andersen is no longer with the program, stepping down after the team’s 38-10 loss at USC in early October. Andersen had strong credentials at Utah State and Wisconsin but after leaving Wisconsin in unusual circumstances and now having this surprise departure, his future will likely only be as an assistant. Cory Hall is the interim head coach after leading the team’s cornerbacks the past two seasons while also working under Andersen at Wisconsin.
The failures for the Beavers this season started with transfer quarterback Jake Luton struggling. He won the job over the summer to beat out senior Darrell Garretson but turnovers were a big issue with Oregon State committing 14 turnovers the first five games of the season. Luton was injured in the Pac-12 opener and Garretson has posted similar passing numbers since taking over, albeit against stronger competition. The struggles at the position are made more frustrating with Marcus McMaryion having great success leading Fresno State this season, with McMaryion taking most of the snaps with the Beavers late last season before transferring.
Oregon State is gaining a respectable 4.6 yards per rush this season led by junior Ryan Nall who has gained 6.0 yards per carry but the Beavers don’t have a receiver with more than 21 catches and the team has averaged just 6.4 yards per pass attempt with more interceptions (6) than passing touchdowns (5).
Perhaps the biggest disappointment has been the regression of the defense, where Andersen’s expertise lies. The Beavers cut their scoring average seven points from 2015 to 2016 and trimmed the yardage allowed by 53 yards per game in Andersen’s second season. Another step forward was expected this season but instead the Beavers have gone back to allowing 479 yards per game, similar to the 2015 numbers, while surrendering 43.7 points per game to sit only ahead of Kansas and East Carolina nationally in scoring defense. That average is with some difficult games still remaining on the schedule, though in fairness the Pac-12 slate started with Washington State, Washington, and USC, potentially the top three teams in the conference.
In Hall’s first game leading the program the Beavers were competitive in a homecoming game with Colorado. It was certainly the team’s best opportunity for a Pac-12 win this season and the Beavers led 33-29 after a Nall touchdown late in the fourth quarter. With just over a minute remaining Colorado regained the lead and a tying field goal attempt in the final seconds was missed. Oregon State had a yardage edge of 569-385 as the offense moved the ball well but the run defense was suspect, certainly a concern heading into this matchup.
With two losses Stanford is out of the national picture in almost all scenarios but the Cardinal is still a threat in the Pac-12 North race, getting to play Washington State and Washington the next two weeks. Stanford has lost two of its three road games this season and while in September the defeats at USC and at San Diego State appeared respectable, the Trojans and Aztecs have sunk in stature the past two weeks.
Quarterback play has been an area of concern for Stanford with junior Keller Chryst completing just 55 percent of his passes. The offense looked better with freshman K.J. Costello filling in but Chryst remains the starter. Love will be the focal point of the offense but the reason Stanford isn’t a national threat this season has been the defense.
Under David Shaw Stanford has produced several outstanding defenses in making Rose Bowl appearances three times in the last six seasons. The 2014 Cardinal defense surrendered just 16.4 points per game and 282 yards per game. The numbers haven’t been quite as strong the past two seasons but the Cardinal has still been one of the better defensive units in the Pac-12. This season Stanford has allowed just 22.0 points per game but 416 yards per game with great vulnerability against the run, allowing 5.0 yards per carry.
Expect both teams to lead with their running backs in this Thursday night matchup as that is where the best opportunities will come. Stanford’s Pac-12 case won’t be decided this week but rather in games the next two weeks but this might be Love’s game to post a huge number in his climb towards 2,000 rushing yards as he will face much stronger defenses in November. For Oregon State any Pac-12 win would be a boost for the program and this is the second to last home game with the team riding a little positive momentum after the productive showing against Colorado.
Last Season: These teams met in early November at Stanford last season. Oregon State had just played a competitive game with Washington State while Stanford had just blasted Arizona on the road. Stanford led only 13-7 at halftime and pulled away with a lead that was never in doubt despite just an 11-point final margin. Stanford had a 425-266 yardage edge with a grand total of just 197 passing yards combined between the two teams. Chryst averaged only 3.5 yards per attempt but he avoided the two turnovers McMaryion had for Oregon State and Christian McCaffrey delivered 199 rushing yards.
Historical Trends:
-- Stanford has won seven in a row in this series with a 6-1 ATS run since 2010, with the lone ATS miss coming at home last season.
-- The Cardinal are just 12-15-1 ATS in the series going back to 1988 going 5-8 ATS in Corvallis in that span with a 5-5 S/U record the past 10 trips.
-- Under Shaw, Stanford is 8-3 ATS as a double-digit road favorite going back to 2011, with the lone S/U loss coming in the 2015 season opener at Northwestern.
-- This will be the largest road favorite spread for Stanford since a September 2013 game at Army and if the line stays above -21 it will be the largest road favorite spread for Stanford in Pac-12 play since at least 1980 (where our data stops).
-- Since 2011 Stanford is 12-5 ATS when laying 20 or more points including going 4-1 since 2014.
-- Oregon State is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2016 season, going 5-0 last season and splitting two instances this season.
-- Oregon State closed at +26½ hosting Washington this season in a 42-7 loss and before that hadn’t been dogged by more than 21 points at home since beating USC 27-21 in 2008 at +24½.
-- Oregon State is just 11-19 ATS at home since the start of the 2013 season, going only 12-18 S/U.
October 24, 2017
After a very exciting Thursday night game between Memphis and Houston last week, this week’s game is not expected to be as competitive with a massive road favorite spread as Stanford visits Oregon State.
The Cardinal have recovered from a slow start to become a factor in the Pac-12 North race while the Beavers look to find some direction in a disappointing season. Here is a look at Thursday Night College Football.
Matchup: Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers
Venue: At Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon
Time/TV: Thursday, Oct. 26, 9:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Stanford -22, Over/Under 59½
Last Meeting: 2016, at Stanford (-16) 26, Oregon State 15
Leading the nation in rushing is Stanford junior Bryce Love with 1,387 yards, more than 200 yards ahead of the nation’s #2 rusher Zach Abey of Navy. He is emerging as a serious Heisman Trophy candidate and he will be in the spotlight week as Stanford looks to move to 5-1 in Pac-12 play playing at Oregon State as a heavy favorite in this week’s Thursday night ESPN game.
Love has averaged an astonishing 10.27 yards per carry which would be a new NCAA single-season record. Recognized with a minimum of just 6.25 carries per game the current record holder is Anthony Alridge for Houston in 2006 at 10.09 yards per carry but he had just 95 rushing attempts that season. Love already has 135 carries this season and the list of the top single-season rushers on a per carry basis is littered with secondary and 3rd down backs with big play ability, think Felix Jones or Percy Harvin in recent years.
The highest single-season average among backs with at least 200 carries is a fellow Pac-12 player and 2005 Heisman winner Reggie Bush at 8.70. Love could beat the record and yet not set the record however, as currently he has competition this season from Josh Adams at Notre Dame at 9.21 yards per carry and Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate who has averaged a outrageous 13.93 yards per carry. Tate’s average is sure to go down with more playing time however, currently playing in just five games this season but posting 780 yards on only 56 attempts.
This should be a game where Love can look to boost his statistics and bolster his Heisman Trophy credentials. Oregon State has allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season and the rest of the schedule is much more daunting for Love’s potential with Stanford facing more formidable run defenses in Washington State (3.4), Washington (#1 nationally at 2.2), California (4.4), and Notre Dame (3.6).
While the attention will be Love in a game that isn’t likely to impact the Pac-12 race, the Beavers shouldn’t be completely overlooked despite the miserable 1-6 record (2-5 ATS). Gary Andersen’s team showed some promise with several competitive late season efforts in 2016, climbing from 2-10 in his first season in Corvallis to 4-8 in 2016 and looking like a team that might make another step forward in 2017.
Andersen is no longer with the program, stepping down after the team’s 38-10 loss at USC in early October. Andersen had strong credentials at Utah State and Wisconsin but after leaving Wisconsin in unusual circumstances and now having this surprise departure, his future will likely only be as an assistant. Cory Hall is the interim head coach after leading the team’s cornerbacks the past two seasons while also working under Andersen at Wisconsin.
The failures for the Beavers this season started with transfer quarterback Jake Luton struggling. He won the job over the summer to beat out senior Darrell Garretson but turnovers were a big issue with Oregon State committing 14 turnovers the first five games of the season. Luton was injured in the Pac-12 opener and Garretson has posted similar passing numbers since taking over, albeit against stronger competition. The struggles at the position are made more frustrating with Marcus McMaryion having great success leading Fresno State this season, with McMaryion taking most of the snaps with the Beavers late last season before transferring.
Oregon State is gaining a respectable 4.6 yards per rush this season led by junior Ryan Nall who has gained 6.0 yards per carry but the Beavers don’t have a receiver with more than 21 catches and the team has averaged just 6.4 yards per pass attempt with more interceptions (6) than passing touchdowns (5).
Perhaps the biggest disappointment has been the regression of the defense, where Andersen’s expertise lies. The Beavers cut their scoring average seven points from 2015 to 2016 and trimmed the yardage allowed by 53 yards per game in Andersen’s second season. Another step forward was expected this season but instead the Beavers have gone back to allowing 479 yards per game, similar to the 2015 numbers, while surrendering 43.7 points per game to sit only ahead of Kansas and East Carolina nationally in scoring defense. That average is with some difficult games still remaining on the schedule, though in fairness the Pac-12 slate started with Washington State, Washington, and USC, potentially the top three teams in the conference.
In Hall’s first game leading the program the Beavers were competitive in a homecoming game with Colorado. It was certainly the team’s best opportunity for a Pac-12 win this season and the Beavers led 33-29 after a Nall touchdown late in the fourth quarter. With just over a minute remaining Colorado regained the lead and a tying field goal attempt in the final seconds was missed. Oregon State had a yardage edge of 569-385 as the offense moved the ball well but the run defense was suspect, certainly a concern heading into this matchup.
With two losses Stanford is out of the national picture in almost all scenarios but the Cardinal is still a threat in the Pac-12 North race, getting to play Washington State and Washington the next two weeks. Stanford has lost two of its three road games this season and while in September the defeats at USC and at San Diego State appeared respectable, the Trojans and Aztecs have sunk in stature the past two weeks.
Quarterback play has been an area of concern for Stanford with junior Keller Chryst completing just 55 percent of his passes. The offense looked better with freshman K.J. Costello filling in but Chryst remains the starter. Love will be the focal point of the offense but the reason Stanford isn’t a national threat this season has been the defense.
Under David Shaw Stanford has produced several outstanding defenses in making Rose Bowl appearances three times in the last six seasons. The 2014 Cardinal defense surrendered just 16.4 points per game and 282 yards per game. The numbers haven’t been quite as strong the past two seasons but the Cardinal has still been one of the better defensive units in the Pac-12. This season Stanford has allowed just 22.0 points per game but 416 yards per game with great vulnerability against the run, allowing 5.0 yards per carry.
Expect both teams to lead with their running backs in this Thursday night matchup as that is where the best opportunities will come. Stanford’s Pac-12 case won’t be decided this week but rather in games the next two weeks but this might be Love’s game to post a huge number in his climb towards 2,000 rushing yards as he will face much stronger defenses in November. For Oregon State any Pac-12 win would be a boost for the program and this is the second to last home game with the team riding a little positive momentum after the productive showing against Colorado.
Last Season: These teams met in early November at Stanford last season. Oregon State had just played a competitive game with Washington State while Stanford had just blasted Arizona on the road. Stanford led only 13-7 at halftime and pulled away with a lead that was never in doubt despite just an 11-point final margin. Stanford had a 425-266 yardage edge with a grand total of just 197 passing yards combined between the two teams. Chryst averaged only 3.5 yards per attempt but he avoided the two turnovers McMaryion had for Oregon State and Christian McCaffrey delivered 199 rushing yards.
Historical Trends:
-- Stanford has won seven in a row in this series with a 6-1 ATS run since 2010, with the lone ATS miss coming at home last season.
-- The Cardinal are just 12-15-1 ATS in the series going back to 1988 going 5-8 ATS in Corvallis in that span with a 5-5 S/U record the past 10 trips.
-- Under Shaw, Stanford is 8-3 ATS as a double-digit road favorite going back to 2011, with the lone S/U loss coming in the 2015 season opener at Northwestern.
-- This will be the largest road favorite spread for Stanford since a September 2013 game at Army and if the line stays above -21 it will be the largest road favorite spread for Stanford in Pac-12 play since at least 1980 (where our data stops).
-- Since 2011 Stanford is 12-5 ATS when laying 20 or more points including going 4-1 since 2014.
-- Oregon State is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2016 season, going 5-0 last season and splitting two instances this season.
-- Oregon State closed at +26½ hosting Washington this season in a 42-7 loss and before that hadn’t been dogged by more than 21 points at home since beating USC 27-21 in 2008 at +24½.
-- Oregon State is just 11-19 ATS at home since the start of the 2013 season, going only 12-18 S/U.
