Cnotes 2016 NFL Sept. Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 1


Carolina @ Denver– Super Bowl winners are 7-3-3 vs spread in Week 1 the following year; Super Bowl losers are 2-11 vs spread in season openers the following year. Broncos do look lot different, with Siemian at QB; they’re 15-1 SU in last 16 home openers, 18-8-1 vs spread in last 27, 5-3 vs spread in last eight season openers. Since ’12, Carolina is 5-9 vs spread as a road favorite; they lost 34-0/20-17 in only visits here, with last one in ’04- they’ve lost four of five overall vs Broncos. Panthers won last two road openers; they’re 10-5 vs spread in last 15 road openers, with three of last four staying under total. Denver is 5-7 vs spread as home underdog since 2010. This is the first Week 1 Super Bowl rematch since 1970.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta– Bucs’ new DC is Mike Smith, the former Falcons’ head coach. Last three years, Falcons are 5-17 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 4-11 in last 15 games as home favorite. Last two years, Bucs are 2-9 in games with spread of 3 or less points- they swept Falcons 23-20/23-19 LY; they’ve split last four visits to Georgia Dome. Tampa Bay is 3-7 in last 10 road openers, but 4-1 vs spread as a dpg in road openers. Under is 16-7 in their last 23 road openers. Atlanta won, covered its last eight home openers; they’re 14-3 vs spread in last 17 home openers. Falcons covered last eight times they opened season at home; three of its last four home openers went under the total.


Minnesota @ Tennessee– Hill gets start at QB for Minnesota, but Bradford will be starter soon. Hill was 3-5 for ’14 Rams, his only starts since ’10. Last four years, Minnesota is 20-7 vs spread in games that have a spread of 3 or less points; Vikings open on road for 8th time in last nine years; they open a new domed stadium next week. Last three years, Tennessee is 2-8-2 vs spread in games that have spread of 3 or less points; since ’11, they’re 6-14-2 as home dogs. Minnesota won five of last six series games, with last four wins over Tennessee by 10+ points; they split two visits to Nashville, with last one in ’08. Vikings are 3-5 in last eight season openers, 4-11 in last 15 road openers; under is 9-3 in their last 12 road openers. Titans are 7-3 last 10 times they opened season at home; four of their last five season openers stayed under total.


Cleveland @ Philadelphia– Rookie Wentz gets nod at QB for Eagles, despite hardly playing in preseason (ribs). Browns started season 1-0 once in last 17 years; they’re 2-8-1 vs spread in last 11 openers, 4-7-2 in last 13 road openers. Cleveland is on their sixth coach in nine years; they’re 0-4 vs Eagles, losing its last visit to Philly 30-10 in ’08. Eagles are on third coach in four years; since ’10, they’re 11-19 vs spread in non-divisional home games. With rookie Wentz red-shirting this year, Bradford gets nod at QB ; Iggles are 2-8 vs spread in last 10 home openers; 0-7 when favored by less than eight points. Browns are 13-15-2 as road dogs last four years. Under is 6-2-1 in Eagles’ last nine home openers, 8-5 in Cleveland’s last 13 season openers.


Cincinnati @ NJ Jets– Fitzpatrick didn’t sign until an hour before training camp started, but had full camp; Jets are 7-2 vs spread as home underdogs last three years. Bengals lost last nine games vs Jets in NY/NJ area, with last series win here in 1981. Jets are 9-2 in last 11 series games, but lost 49-9 at Cincinnati in 2013 in last series game. Gang Green won last five home openers (three by 5 or less points); they’re 7-1 in last eight season openers. Bengals split last six season openers, which were all on the road. Since 2011, Cincinnati is 11-6-1 as road favorite- they are 17-5-3 vs spread in last 25 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 6-1 in Cincy’s last seven road openers, 3-5 in Jets’ last eight openers at home.

Oakland @ New Orleans– Former Oakland coach Allen is Saints’ new DC. Since ’08, Saints is 24-10-3 as non-divisional home favorite. Last four years, Raiders are 4-15 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points, but they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as non-divisional road dogs. Saints won last three series games by average of 34-15– Raiders are 2-3-1 vs Saints on Bourbon Street. Oakland lost 12 of last 13 openers; since ’07, they’re 6-1-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Over last eight years, Saints are 14-8-2 as favorite of 3 or less points; they lost four of last five openers; they’re 13-5 in last 18 home openers (5-2-1 vs spread when favored in HO’s). Over is 11-5-1 in last 17 Oakland road openers, 3-9 in last 12 Superdome openers.


Chargers @ Chiefs– San Diego didn’t score TD vs Chiefs LY, losing 33-3/10-3; they lost last two visits to Arrowhead, 19-7/10-3, as KC won last four series games. Chargers are 18-8-1 as a road underdog last four years, 7-3 in last 10 AFC West road games. Chiefs are 3-7 in last 10 season openers, 5-11 in last 16 home openers; they’re 2-9-1 vs spread as a fave in home openers. San Diego covered its last four openers; they’re 8-5-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Since ’08, Kansas City is 13-23 as a home favorite (10-12 under Reid). Under is 19-4-2 in Chiefs’ last 25 home openers, 3-1 in Bolts’ last four road openers. Chiefs covered only eight of last 23 AFC West home games.


Buffalo @ Baltimore– Last four years, Ravens are 5-10-2 vs spread as favorite of 3 or less points. Home team won last five series games; Bills lost last three visits to Baltimore, by 14-12-3 points. Buffalo covered nine of last 11 openers; they’re 9-5 vs spread in last 14 road openers, winning three of last five SU. Ravens lost last two home openers after 9-0 streak prior to that- they’re 13-6 vs spread as a favorite in home openers. Rex Ryan became a HC because of success Raven defense had while he was there. Buffalo is 14-10-1 in last 25 games with spread of 3 or less points- they’re 6-16-2 vs spread in last 24 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 4-1 in Bills’ last five road openers, 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven home openers.

Chicago @ Houston– Osweiler is 5-2 as an NFL starter; he makes his Houston debut here. Texans are 7-3 as home favorites in two years under O’Brien. Fox is 10-6-1 as a road dog last five years; Bears were 5-2-1 as road underdog LY. Chicago is opening on road for first time since ’09; they’re 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine openers, 10-8 in last 18 road openers. Houston won six of its last seven openers, five of last six home openers- they’re 4-4 as favorites in HOs. Texans won all three series games, by 19-7-7 points; Bears lost 31-24 in only visit here, in 2008. Under is 10-2 in Chicago’s last 12 road openers, 7-4 in Houston’s last 11 home openers. Bears covered seven of last ten non-conference road games.

Green Bay @ Jacksonville– Packers lost three of last four season openers, three of last four road openers (1-4 vs spread in last five); their last five openers went over, as did eight of last ten road openers. Jaguars are 2-7 in last nine home openers, losing last four by an average of 30-9. Jags are 4-6 as an underdog in HOs. Green Bay is 7-4 as road favorite last two years, since 2011, Pack is 9-16 vs spread in non-conference road games. Jags are 5-12-1 as a home underdog under Bradley; they’re 7-18 in last 25 non-divisional home games. Under is 8-3-1 in Jaguars’ last 12 home openers. Packers are 3-2 in series; three of last four meetings were decided by 7 or less points. Pack won two of three visits here, with last trip here in ’08.

Miami @ Seattle– Biggest spread of Week 1. Since 2008, Miami is 25-14-1 vs spread in its non-divisional road games- they’re 4-7 as road underdogs last two years, Seahawks won, covered 12 of last 13 home openers- they’re 10-1 as faves in HOs. Dolphins are 3-9 in last 12 road openers, 1-6-1 vs spread as an underdog. Miami is 3-0 in last three season openers; they were underdog in two of three. Long road trip to start season; Fish won five of last six series meetings, with four of six decided by 4 or less points. Dolphins won three of last four visits here, with last one in ’04. Under is 17-5 in Miami’s last 22 road openers, including last seven in row; under is 12-2-1 in Seattle’s last 15 HOs. Last six years, Seattle is 22-11 vs the spread as a home favorite.

NJ Giants @ Dallas– Rookie QB Prescott played well in preseason; how will he do when things speed up in regular season? Cowboys won five of last six series games, winning last three here by 5-1-10 points; average total in last seven series games, 53.7. Dallas covered one of last eight home openers; since ’93, they’re 7-13 as favorite in HOs. Six of its last eight home openers were decided by 4 or less points. Giants started 0-1 last five years; they lost five of last six road openers- since ’96, they’re 8-10 as an underdog in road openers. Over is 14-2 in Giants’ last 16 road openers, 6-3 in Cowboys’ last nine home openers. Since ’07, Giants are 9-5 as a non-divisional road dog; over is 11-5 in their road gmes last two years. Big Blue fired their Hall of Fame head coach, kept two coordinators; how does that make them better?

Detroit @ Indianapolis– Lion coach Caldwell led Colts to AFC title in 2009, losing Super Bowl to Saints; Detroit is 4-7 as road dog last two years. Indy drafted four offensive linemen last spring; that is where their problems lied LY, keeping QB Luck upright. Indy is 21-26-1 as home favorite the last eight years, 12-17 in non-division games. Lions are 3-12 SU in last 15 road openers (4-8 vs spread as a dog); they allowed 27.3 ppg in last four AOs. Indy is 1-5 as a favotite in home openers, going 2-3 SU in last five. Colts won last four series games, three by 10+ points; Lions lost 30-18/31-21 in two visits here, last of which was in 2008. Over is 7-3-1 in Detroit’s last 11 road openers, 1-4 in Colts’ last five openers.

New England @ Arizona– Garoppolo starting at QB for Patriots puts this into uncharted territory; Patriots are 11-5-1 in last 17 tries as a road underdog, 8-4-1 outside their division. Arizona is 10-7-1 as home favorite under Arians; they’re 10-4-1 in last 15 non-divisional home games. Pats won 11 of last 12 season openers, winning four of last five road openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points. Arizona won last six home openers, covering four of last five- they won five of last six series openers, but lost five of last six games vs Patriots, winning 20-18 in last meeting in Foxboro, in ’12. NE won last three visits here, by 2-24-11 points. Under is 3-1 in Patriots’ last four AO’s, Cardinals’ last four HOs.

Pittsburgh @ Washington– Steelers lost last five road openers (0-4-1 vs spread), all by 7+ points; they lost four of last five season openers (0-4-1 vs spread), but won last five games vs Washington, last four all by 9+ points. This is only third visit here for Steelers since ’68; they split last two. Pitt is 11-20-1 as road favorite last eight years, 6-14 in non-divisional games. Under is 10-5 in their road games last two years. Redskins are 5-4 as home dog under Gruden; since ’08, they’re 12-24-2 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Skins lost last three season openers, three of last four home openers. Under is 7-2 in Steelers’ last nine road openers, 1-4 in Washington’s last five home openers.

Los Angeles @ San Francisco– Rams are favored despite being 1-13 in last 14 road openers, with only win 19-17 (-4) at Tampa Bay couple years ago. LA is 1-3 as road fave in Fisher era. Keenum is 5-2 in last seven starts. Since 2000, Rams are 3-13 vs spread in Week 1. 49ers are 7-3-1 as home underdog since ’09, 1-3 in last four home openers, losing in Week 1 last three years. Niners are 4-2-1 in last seven series games; Rams are 1-6-1 in last eight visits here, with three of last four visits decided by 3 or less points; it is much shorter road trip now than it was in those eight trips. LA outrushed 49ers 330-146 in two meetings LY; wraps will get taken off Gurley here after he hardly played in preseason. Under is 7-3 in Rams’ last 10 road openers, 9-5-1 in 49ers’ last 15 HOs, 18-6 in 49ers home games the last three years.

 

[CNOTES]

Football lines that make you go hmmm: Short road faves are undervalued


Peter Korner, a long-time Las Vegas oddsmakers, is scratching his head when it comes to these NFL Week 1 lines and says books could be open for a beating.


As an oddsmaker, I have to be aware of the home-field advantage, no matter what the sport. The reason? Simple. Teams win more at home than they do on the road. But there are certain situations where I think the bettor has a distinct advantage playing that angle against the percentages: road favorites with a short price.


In the NFL, there seems to be a standard of three points (give or take the situation) for the home field. A six-point differential if we switch the home team. There are four situations in Week 1 of the NFL season where I believe, just because of the “automatic” home-field advantage, the line poses a weak chance of getting two-way action for bookmakers. And that’s where bettors may be aggressive with their betting.


We’re going to look at the opening game of the season, Thursday’s Carolina at Denver, Sunday’s Cincinnati at the NY Jets and both Monday games, Pittsburgh at Washington and Los Angeles at San Francisco.


Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3, 42)


Carolina is a solid 3-point favorite over the Denver Broncos, who lost their top two quarterbacks to retirement and free agency, and that’s how the early money found its way to the Carolina side. So, as an oddsmaker, on a neutral site, Carolina would be a 6-point favorite and as a home team and they’d giving the Broncos nine points.


My feelings for years, has been if a team is a 9-point favorite at home, that difference in talent to be at that level should carry over to wherever they’re playing. Suddenly making a large favorite, a near pick’em game never made sense. My first thoughts would be that Carolina should be at the minimum, a 6-point favorite here.


The value right now is Carolina at the -3 level. This game already smells of a closing line of -4 or higher as everyone has been hit on the revenge-minded Panthers in the past few days and I don’t see tremendous buy back for bookmakers - even when the money on game day forces this off the key number of three.


Bookmakers will be taking three or four times their limits before moving the game off -3 and by that time, they’ll be swamped with one-sided action and then suddenly, this becomes a huge game to kick of Week 1.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (+2.5, 41.5)


The same goes with the Cincinnati Bengals. I believe they’re far more talented and incentivized team. Early money has moved this game from a pick’em to the current -2.5 on the road favorite, so early bettors who got the number at its lowest have great value.


The Bengals were 6-2 on the road last year and basically all bettors are asking is for this team is to win Sunday. Not that the Jets are a bad team, but this matchup clearly has a stronger, more aggressive team and the small spread should play no factor in the final score as Cincinnati is the value play in this spot.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins (+3, 50), Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 44)


A double-dose of this comes on Monday where I truly believe both road teams are far superior to their home counterparts. Pittsburgh, sans Le'Veon Bell, is still attracting money and bookmakers are already starting to get overloaded with Steeler cash.


At -3 (minus money) already, this is about to leap to -3.5 on what should be a high-scoring shootout where the passing yards may overshadow Bell’s absence. Also, the Steelers have had plenty of time to adjust to his vacancy so it’s not like a sudden injury in which they are scrambling to replace in a week’s notice.


Yes, Kirk Cousins had an awesome year in 2015, but it’s not so hard to think he may fall back a bit this year. This is another one-way betting mess and I believe bettors will be a little ahead of the bookmakers with this line as it stands now.


The last game is a good example of how the home-field advantage is a non-factor – particularly because of who is playing. The 49ers will be lucky to win four or five games all season and this is not so much a pro-Los Angeles move as much as an anti-San Francisco play.


This game stands at L.A. -2.5 and we’re already starting to see threes dot the landscape. There’s very little hope that bookmakers will see any form of buy back on the Niners. The value is on the small road favorite at this level.


Los Angeles, the new kid on the block this year, should have no problem with this game which should be at -4 to -5 realistically. A far inferior team can’t exploit the home-field advantage if they’re just bad. San Francisco is just that bad. I only envision the public seeing this one way. Bookmakers will have a decision to sweat for sure.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL line watch: Can Patriots top total without Brady under center?


The Patriots will keep the offense simple around backup QB Jimmy Garappolo when they face the Cardinals' stout defense in Week 1.


Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.


Spread to bet now


Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-1)


One-point lines aren’t all that common, but this one hasn’t budged since early-bird oddsmakers weighed in when the schedule was first announced last spring. So, any late movement is unlikely.


This looks like the Raiders’ last in the Bay Area, and they would love to make the playoffs and give their move to Las Vegas a huge tailwind. They did get some bad news when they learned that DE Mario Edwards will be lost for at least six weeks after being injured in last week’s exhibition game. Ouch.


The Saints weren’t that impressive in the preseason (losing all four), but that doesn’t mean much. New Orleans hopes to take advantage of a soft start to the season with the first four against 2016 non-playoff teams (Raiders, Falcons, Giants, Chargers). Starting 1-3 or 0-4 would be devastating.


Spread to wait on


Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3)


Books are loath to move off field goal lines, but the public is betting hard on the Panthers (72 percent on Carolina) and Broncos bettors should check back often to see if a +3.5 window opens up, even for a short amount of time.


Denver will be trying to defend its Super Bowl title without a top-flight quarterback, and that’s always a tricky thing to accomplish. But that defense should keep the Broncos in most games.


No one seriously thinks the Panthers can repeat last year’s 15-1 record, but they should be able to call the shots in the NFC South and return to the playoffs.


Total to watch


New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (47.5)


This one opened at 51, but fell when Tom Brady’s suspension appeal was rejected. New England will try to survive until Week 5 (when Brady is back) with a possible Top-3 defense and a no-frills offense built around tight ends Rob Gronkowski and (newcomer) Martellus Bennett.


The usual suspects for the Pats’ offense are back – uncoverable Julian Edelman and earth-moving running back LeGarrette Blount. The Pats will keep things simple early on until they have a feel for QB placeholder Jimmy Garoppolo.


The Cardinals no doubt caught a break facing a Brady-less New England squad, and will be doing everything they can to intimidate Garoppolo with a solid defense of their own. It could be hard for both teams to get into the end zone in this one.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 1


Thurs – Sept. 8


Carolina at Denver, 8:30 PM ET
Carolina: 12-4 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
Denver: 1-4 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points




Sun – Sept. 11


Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 1:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 16-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
Atlanta: 1-8 ATS as a favorite


Minnesota at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota: 14-3 ATS in all lined games
Tennessee: 7-20 ATS as an underdog


Cleveland at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland: 3-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Philadelphia: 3-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points


Cincinnati at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati: 7-0 ATS in the first month of the season
New York: 6-7 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points


Oakland at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
Oakland: 5-17 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5
New Orleans: 51-45 ATS in non-conference games

San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET
San Diego: 16-28 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points
Kansas City: 7-5 ATS versus division opponents


Buffalo at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 30-16 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS as a favorite

Chicago at Houston, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 43-51 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Houston: 11-3 ATS as a favorite


Green Bay at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay: 16-6 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Jacksonville: 1-7 ATS in non-conference games


Miami at Seattle, 4:05 PM ET
Miami: 0-7 ATS in games played on turf
Seattle: 30-15 ATS in home games in non-conference games


NY Giants at Dallas, 4:25 PM ET
New York: 51-38 ATS in the first month of the season
Dallas: 1-8 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points


Detroit at Indianapolis, 4:25 PM ET
Detroit: 1-3 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Indianapolis: 5-3 ATS in non-conference games

New England at Arizona, 8:30 PM ET
New England: 2-5 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
Arizona: 5-1 ATS in September games




Mon – Sept. 12


Pittsburgh at Washington, 7:10 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 19-25 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Washington: 5-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less

Los Angeles at San Francisco, 10:20 PM ET
Los Angeles: 55-83 ATS in games played on a grass field
San Francisco: 30-10 ATS when playing on Monday night

 

[CNOTES]

TNF - Panthers at Broncos
September 8, 2016


Carolina (-3, 41.5) at Denver, NBC


With apologies to Carolina's Ron Rivera, who doesn’t feel it’s “fair” that the reigning NFC champion has to open the season on the road with a Super Bowl rematch against the Broncos, he’s definitely in the minority when it comes to individuals not looking forward to this matchup.


Rivera’s quarterback appears to be in his coach’s corner.


"A lot of people want to make it a rematch. It's not a rematch," Newton told the Associated Press. "It's just our next opponent."


There’s no point in getting too wrapped up in semantics, but the fact is it’s clear that the Panthers are still raw over their Super Bowl 50 loss and not thrilled with having to travel nearly all the way across the country to open the 2016 regular season. It now remains to be seen whether they can channel that frustration into making life miserable for new Denver starting quarterback Trevor Siemian, whose first pass in this game will be the first of his NFL career.


While Peyton Manning was dreadful throughout most of his final season and didn’t have a great Super Bowl (13-for-23, 141 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), his value came in getting the Broncos out of plays that would be blown up by the Panthers, not to mention keeping the rest of the offense loose despite the magnitude of the game. Experience mattered. Siemian doesn’t bring that intangible to the table, but will have a homefield advantage in his back pocket to try and make his life easier against a stingy Carolina defense.


Newton committed costly turnovers in the Super Bowl and ended up a rather ordinary 18-for-41 for 265 yards, adding another 45 on the ground through six carries. It was hardly a Superman-like effort, which led to a controversial post-game press conference and Super Bowl MVP Von Miller clowning the regular-season MVP all offseason. We’re about to see how effective a vengeful Newton can be.


Carolina Panthers
Season win total: 10.5 (Over +120)
Odds to win NFC South: 4/13
Odds to win NFC: 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1

Denver Broncos
Season win total: 9.5 (Over +130)
Odds to win AFC West: 12/5
Odds to win AFC: 7/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25/1

LINE MOVEMENT

When the Westgate SuperBook opened Week 1 numbers April 15, Denver was originally listed as a 3-point favorite. Carolina is now the 3-point 'chalk', although the total remains about the same. Weeks before the NFL Draft, WestgateLV placed the total at 43.5. It's currently available at 41.5 there and at most shops.


The unproven Siemian winning the gig over Mark Sanchez, who was ultimately released and landed in Dallas, undoubtedly affected this number despite Denver's homefield edge. Including the postseason, the Broncos are 32-6 straight up at Invesco Field at Mile High.


DENVER D DOMINATES


Miller had a sack, a hurry and a tackle for loss in his final preseason showing, so he seems quite ready for the season to begin. A bigger question mark would have to be standout corner Aqib Talib, whose last play in the Aug. 27 win over the Rams was a late hit on Case Keenum that was whistled for an unnecessary roughness penalty. Talib, who was shot in the leg back in June in an incident Dallas police is still investigating, hasn’t been suspended and will line up in his usual spot at left cornerback opposite standout Chris Harris despite rumors that he can be had for the right offer. Safeties Darian Stewart and T.J. Ward also return in the secondary, Of the 11 Denver defensive starters that lined up in Super Bowl 50, nine return. Only DE Malik Jackson (Jaguars) and LB Danny Trevathan (Bears) are elsewhere, which means the Broncos have a great chance to pick up where they left off. It should be noted that Denver only surrendered more than 20 points in one of their last eight contests, holding the Steelers, Patriots and Panthers to an average of 14.7 points in dominating the postseason.

BENJAMIN RETURNS


After tearing his ACL last August, former top Carolina wideout Kelvin Benjamin will return to action, albeit on a limited snap count. According to Rivera, he sees a target of 35 snaps for Benjamin and would be willing to let him surpass that if he looks like his normal self. Benjamin, a 6-5 freak of a red zone target who had 1,008 receiving yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie, caught six passes for 61 yards in three preseason games. Between Benjamin, 6-foot-4 Devin Funchess and 6-5 tight end Greg Olsen, Newton will have massive weapons to try and solve Denver’s defense.


CAM LOOKS TO BOUNCE BACK


Newton accounted for 45 of the Panthers’ 59 touchdowns last season — 35 passing and 10 more rushing. It looked almost unfair that he was able to lead the Panthers to an average of 40 points per game in wins over the Seahawks and Cardinals to get out of the NFC, but he was overwhelmed in the Super Bowl, which is all anyone remembers. It's further disconcerting that Newton was picked off twice in the preseason dress rehearsal game against New England, finishing just 13-for-29 for 100 yards while putting up just 3 points with the first-team offense. Although Carolina went 15-1 during last year’s regular season, Newton is just 14-18 in his career coming off a loss.


RECENT MEETINGS (Denver 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 4-1)

2/7/16 Denver 24-10 vs. Carolina in Santa Clara, CA (CAR -4,5, 43)
11/11/12 Denver 36-14 at Carolina (DEN -3.5, 43.5)
12/14/08 Denver at Carolina 30-10 (CAR -7.5, 48)
10/10/04 Carolina at Denver 20-17 (DEN -4, 38)
11/9/97 Carolina at Denver 34-0 (DEN -8, 42)


DENVER OFFENSE SEEKS REDEMPTION


Because Manning and the offense were carried to the Super Bowl 50 victory by the defense, this Broncos offense does carry a chip on their shoulder entering this one. Look for them to keep life simple for Siemian, who will become the first quarterback ever to start for a reigning NFL champion without a single pass to his credit. He started just 14 games at Northwestern and tore his ACL in his senior season, but he’s won Denver teammates over with his intelligence and ability to translate what he’s learned on to the field. It’s unlikely that he gets pulled due to performance, but it should be noted that while the Broncos defense rightfully gets the bulk of the attention in this matchup, Carolina is also loaded on that side of the ball, returning six of its starting front seven from last year’s Super Bowl intact. Only the retired Jared Allen, replaced by veteran Kony Ealy will be absent, although the secondary has a new look with standouts Josh Norman (Washington) and Roman Harper (New Orleans) gone. If Siemian struggles mightily or is injured, rookie Paxton Lynch is likely to see his first action.


PANTHERS AS ROAD FAVORITE


Carolina was 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in this role last season, losing only in Atlanta on Dec. 27 in suffering their only regular-season setback of 2015. The Panthers were a road dog in every game they played in 2014 and were 3-2 SU (1-4 ATS) in this role in '13.


BRONCOS AS A HOME DOG


As you might expect, the Broncos don’t have a lot of experience as an underdog at Mile High, but did just get the job done in sending Tom Brady and the Patriots home in last year’s AFC Championship game as a 3-point dog. They were also getting 2.5 when they beat New England on Nov. 29 during the regular season and blew out Green Bay 29-10 on Nov. 1 of last year when also getting 2.5. Beyond 2015, you have to go back all the way to 2012 for Denver’s last game as a home underdog, a 31-25 loss to Houston when getting just 1.5.


NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED


The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 2 has the Broncos as 3.5-point home favorites over the Colts. Meanwhile, the Panthers are listed at -13.5 at home against the 49ers, by far the largest spread in Week 2.

 

[CNOTES]

Trip to the dentist: Cam feels the pain in loss to Broncos
September 9, 2016


DENVER (AP) Cam Newton's latest encounter with the Broncos must've felt like another trip to the dentist.


The Panthers quarterback added yet another move to his repertoire - he actually flossed his teeth on the sideline - but his rematch with the Broncos in Thursday night's season opener was a brutal affair that ended with a missed field goal and the same outcome as the last time these teams met.


Newton led Carolina within range of the winning score, but Graham Gano's miss, wide left from 50 yards with 4 seconds left, gave Denver a win in the Super Bowl rematch, 21-20.


After an opening half in which he debuted a new touchdown dance and looked to have set aside all the bad memories from last year's Super Bowl, Newton met, head-first, with Von Miller and a defense that has now punished him and made him look like something less than an MVP in Carolina's last two meaningful games.


Newton ran for a touchdown and threw for another, but passed for only 16 more yards than Broncos newcomer Trevor Siemian.


He remained in the trainer's room for nearly an hour after the game had ended after being sacked three times, and hit eight more, not counting the punishment he received on his 11 rushing attempts.


Three of those hits were to his head, and Carolina didn't get one inch of penalty yardage out of them.


''It's not my job to question the officials,'' Newton said. ''I really like this officiating crew, so it wasn't something I know they did intentionally, but it's not fun getting hit in the head.''


He probably deserved better.


One of the shots came from - who else? - Miller, who met him facemask-to-facemask early in the third quarter while DeMarcus Ware was dragging him down. The hit left Newton doubled over in pain on the sideline. He didn't miss a play, but after leading the Panthers to a 17-7 lead in the first half, he produced only a field goal after the collision, completing 7 of 15 passes for 83 yards.


The last head-to-head blow came from Broncos safety Darian Stewart with 36 seconds left. It drew a flag and would've moved the Panthers into closer field goal range with a few plays left. But because Newton threw the ball away before the hit, he got called for intentional grounding and Carolina didn't get a yard.


''I'm not going to pass on any judgment,'' coach Ron Rivera said when asked about the head hits.


Newton still played well enough to win. He finished 18 for 33 with one touchdown running and another passing and moved the Panthers within field goal range twice in the fourth quarter. His 69.5 passer rating was 14 points higher than in the Super Bowl. For a while, at least, this game had the makings of fun.


One highlight: After his 2-yard run in the second quarter gave Newton the most rushing TDs (44) for a QB in NFL history, he stared down the southwest corner of the Broncos stadium and did a version of the hand jive before placing those hands on his hips then fake-tearing apart the center of his jersey, as if to reveal a big ''S'' on his chest.


Later, Twitter went crazy with vines and video of Newton flossing on the sideline. He said he'd been eating oranges at halftime. His mother would be proud.


But he is now 0-1 for the season, after going 15-1 last year.


Newton, now 27 and a dad - his son, Chosen, was born Christmas Eve - shouldn't face too many questions about his toughness the way he did after the Super Bowl when he didn't dive into a pile to go after a loose ball. He got ripped for wearing a hoodie into the postgame press conference that night, barely answering questions before leaving early.


His appearance this time was more telling.


''I feel (expletive), that's what I do feel,'' he said. ''I just don't like to lose. I know you guys are anticipating so much, and I am trying my best to keep it together. But I knew that this was going to happen, especially from the media standpoint, `How would Cam react to the media?' The truth of the matter is, the Denver Broncos are the defending champs for a reason.''

 

[CNOTES]

Week 1 - Pick Six
September 8, 2016


Bengals (-2 ½, 41 ½) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST


Cincinnati
Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2015 Record: 12-4 SU, 12-3-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 9 ½ (Under -120)


The Bengals are fresh off their second AFC North championship in the last three seasons, even though Cincinnati was bounced in the Wild Card round against rival Pittsburgh. In 2015, the Bengals owned a fantastic 8-0 ATS record away from Paul Brown Stadium, including a 4-0 ATS mark as a road favorite. Cincinnati begins the campaign on the road for the seventh consecutive year, coming off opening week victories at Baltimore (2014) and Oakland (2015) the last two seasons.


New York
Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 1-2-1 ATS
2015 Record: 10-6 SU, 8-6-2 ATS
Season Win Total: 8 (Under -170)


The Jets were one of the most improved teams in football in 2015, jumping from four wins in 2014 to 10 victories last season. Four of New York’s first six games this season are away from Met Life Stadium, as the Jets are riding a five-game winning streak in season openers. The Jets are facing the Bengals for the first time since 2013 when Cincinnati ripped New York, 49-9 as six-point home favorites. New York covered in all three opportunities as an underdog last season, including outright wins over Indianapolis and New England.


Best Bet: Cincinnati -2 ½


Vikings (-2 ½, 41) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST


Minnesota
Preseason Record: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS
2015 Record: 11-5 SU, 13-3 ATS
Season Win Total: 8 (Over -150


The Vikings suffered a devastating blow when quarterback Teddy Bridgewater ripped up his knee in his practice towards the end of training camp. Minnesota acquired Sam Bradford from Philadelphia to help strengthen the quarterback position with Shaun Hill the likely starter on Sunday. Mike Zimmer enters his third season as head coach of the Vikings, owning a terrific 27-9 ATS record, including a 12-4 ATS mark on the highway. Since losing to New England in 2014, Minnesota has covered seven consecutive contests against AFC foes, while posting a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS mark in 2015.

Tennessee
Preseason Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
2015 Record: 3-13 SU, 4-11-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 6 (Over -150)


The Titans equaled last season’s regular season win total in the 2016 preseason, as Tennessee tries to eclipse the .500 mark for the first time since 2011. For as bad as the Titans have been the last three seasons (12 combined victories), Tennessee has won three straight Week 1 contests, including a 42-14 blowout at Tampa Bay in 2015 as three-point underdogs in Marcus Mariota’s debut. The Titans struggled at Nissan Stadium last season by winning only once in eight opportunities, while going 3-5 ATS at home.


Best Bet: Minnesota -2 ½


Raiders at Saints (-1, 51) – 1:00 PM EST


Oakland
Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2015 Record: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS
Season Win Total: 8 ½ (-110)


The expectations are high in the East Bay for the Raiders, who are coming off a 7-9 campaign in Jack Del Rio’s first season in Oakland. The Raiders play three of their first four games away from the Coliseum, facing four teams that didn’t make the playoffs in 2015 (Saints, Falcons, Titans, Ravens). Oakland fared better on the road than at home last season, posting a 4-4 SU record away from the Black Hole, while cashing in all six opportunities as an away underdog. However, Oakland failed to win a game against NFC competition, compiling an 0-4 SU/ATS mark in interconference play.


New Orleans
Preseason Record: 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS
2015 Record: 7-9 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 7 (Over -140)


At one time, the Saints owned the most dominating home-field advantage in the NFL, going 22-5 from 2009 through 2011 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Those days are long gone in the Big Easy with New Orleans compiling an ugly 4-9 SU and 4-8-1 ATS mark since November 2014, while the Saints have failed to produce a winning record in three of the last four seasons. Last season, the Saints performed well as a short home favorite, winning three of four times when laying three points or less at the Superdome.


Best Bet: Oakland +1


Packers (-5, 48) at Jaguars – 1:00 PM EST


Green Bay
Preseason Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
2015 Record: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS
Season Win Total: 10 ½ (Over -160)


The Packers lost their fourth playoff game in overtime since 2007 in their divisional playoff defeat to Arizona in January. Green Bay tries to erase that memory as the Pack attempts to qualify for its seventh consecutive playoff berth this season. The Packers have lost three of their past four season openers, including road defeats at San Francisco (2013) and Seattle (2014). Since 2013, Green Bay has struggled on the road against AFC foes with a 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS record as two of those victories came by three points or less.


Jacksonville
Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS
2015 Record: 5-11 SU, 7-8-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 7 ½ (Over -120)


The Jaguars haven’t won more than five games in the last five seasons, but expectations are raised in north Florida this season. Under Gus Bradley, Jacksonville has put together a disastrous 1-11 SU/ATS against NFC competition since 2013, while going 4-10-1 ATS as a home underdog in this stretch. Jacksonville covered the last time it faced Green Bay in 2012, but that came as a 16-point underdog in a 24-15 defeat at Lambeau Field. The Jaguars haven’t won a season opener under Bradley with all three losses coming by double-digits.


Best Bet: Green Bay -5


Dolphins at Seahawks (-10 ½, 44) – 4:05 PM EST


Miami
Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
2015 Record: 6-10 SU, 5-11 ATS
Season Win Total: 7 (Under -130)


The Dolphins travel to the Pacific Northwest for the first of three games on the west coast this season. Miami sat in the cellar of the AFC East in 2015 as the offense looks for a spark under new head coach Adam Gase. The Dolphins have a few things going their way on Sunday by owning a 3-1 SU/ATS record the last two season on the road against NFC foes, while winning three straight season openers. Since 2012, the Dolphins have posted a 1-5 SU/ATS record as an underdog of at least eight points, which includes an 0-5 SU/ATS ledger on the highway.


Seattle
Preseason Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
2015 Record: 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 10 ½ (Over -145)


The Seahawks face five non-playoff teams in their first five games before a showdown with the Cardinals in Week 7. Seattle’s home-field advantage wasn’t as strong as years past, going 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS after losing only two games at CenturyLink Field from 2012-14. However, the Seahawks have been successful covering heavy numbers from the end of 2014 through last season, going 6-2 ATS when laying at least 10 points. Since 2009, Seattle has hosted games in Week 1 three times and the Seahawks have taken care of business by winning all three games by 20 points or more.


Best Bet: Seattle -10 ½


Giants at Cowboys (-1, 46) – 4:25 PM EST


New York
Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS
2015 Record: 6-10 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 8 (Over -160)


It was a rough start to the preseason for Big Blue, who scored a total of 10 points in its first two losses before beating the Jets and Patriots to finish 2-2. New York has lost five consecutive season openers, including three of those defeats against Dallas. Last season, the Cowboys rallied past the Giants, 27-26, but New York managed a cover as seven-point road underdogs in Week 1. Each of the last seven matchups in Dallas between these NFC East rivals have eclipsed the OVER with the losing team scoring at least 24 points each time.


Dallas
Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS
2015 Record: 4-12 SU, 4-11-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 8 (Over -125)


The Cowboys ended last season without Tony Romo under center and begin the 2016 campaign with their starting quarterback sidelined due to a back injury suffered in the preseason. Rookie Dak Prescott will start for Dallas in Week 1 following a fantastic preseason, but the Cowboys have stumbled to a 5-17 ATS record as a home favorite since 2012. Last season, Dallas had issues with Romo sidelined by putting up a 1-11 record without the veteran quarterback on the field. The Cowboys have covered only once in their last six home games against division foes, which came against the Giants in 2014.


Best Bet: Dallas -1

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Best Bets
September 8, 2016


After an entire summer of breaking down the opening week lines in the NFL, it's time to start cashing tickets as the games begin this weekend. Almost everyone has a bet or two in Week 1 that really stands out to them as a “best bet,” and these are the two side wagers that we've come up with.


Best Bet #1: Atlanta Falcons -2.5


There has been a bunch of talk of some perennial bottom feeders like Tampa Bay and Oakland being significantly improved teams this year, and while that may end up being the case, those teams are going to have to show it on the field first. Tampa Bay comes into this opening week contest having swept the Falcons in 2015 and now they bring in a team with high expectations and a rookie head coach to the Georgia Dome for Week 1.

Situationally, that's two significant knocks against the Bucs in this spot as rookie head coaches in their first road game tend to struggle to find success, to go along with the revenge factor in Atlanta's favor. Remember, Atlanta's another organization that has high hopes for the 2016 campaign as they look to become contenders again and the 11-1 ATS run they are on in home openers as a franchise can't be ignored.


QB Matt Ryan and the rest of Atlanta's attack should be able to put up some big numbers this year and it begins in this Week 1 game against a Tampa defense that is still very suspect. Atlanta's defense has been improving the last few years under HC Dan Quinn, so don't be surprised if that unit seals the game late for the Falcons here.


It's a dangerous thing buying into all the off-season hype for teams expected to greatly improve after years of losing and with all that hype a big factor in why Tampa's already gotten plenty of support here, it's wait and see mode with the Bucs for us as they'll start the season 0-1 SU and ATS.


Best Bet #2: New York Jets +2

For as much as the Cincinnati Bengals have talked about, and continually reiterated that last year's playoff collapse against Pittsburgh is behind them, it's tough to imagine that completely is the case. Cincinnati enters the 2016 season with high expectations once again to reach the playoffs, but the start the year a little banged up with the likes of TE Tyler Eifert on the shelf and being a little thin at the WR position. Ultimately, the Bengals will be judged for how they do in the playoffs given their history (if they get there again), but we don't think you should be so quick to believe what the Bengals are saying about putting that Wildcard collapse behind them.


The Jets dominated the headlines this summer with the Ryan Fitzpatrick ordeal, but he's back on a one-year deal and ready to start off the year right by beating one of his former teams. New York still has a very stout defense from top to bottom and the offense showed tremendous improvement in 2015. Add RB Matt Forte into the mix and the Jets could end up being one of the most balanced teams in football this year and that's always tough to beat. They'll use that formula here in Week 1 to improve on their 8-3 ATS run at home, and further continue their dominance of the Bengals as they are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 1
September 10, 2016


The NFL season officially kicked off Thursday and savvy total bettors had a great shot to middle the opener as Denver nipped Carolina 21-20 at home. Oddsmakers sent out an opening number of 43 in April and that number slowly dipped and eventually closed 40 ½ at most betting shops. For our purposes, we’ll grade the outcome as an ‘over’ and hope you were on the right side.


With that being said, I hope the ninth season of “Total Talk” ends in the black for all of us.


Here’s to a great season!


Line Moves


Sticking with moves, listed below are the biggest shifts as of Saturday afternoon from the opening numbers available in April. The largest adjustments were directly related to quarterbacks (Bridgewater, Romo, Brady) that will be missing Week 1 due to injuries and suspensions.


Minnesota at Tennessee: 42 ½ to 40
Buffalo at Baltimore: 43 to 44 ½
N.Y. Giants at Dallas: 49 to 46
Detroit at Indianapolis: 49 to 50 ½
New England at Arizona: 51 to 44 ½
Los Angeles at San Francisco: 46 ½ to 42 ½


Odds Note: As I’ve mentioned in previous pieces, I usually follow openers from CRIS (Bookmaker.eu) just because of their quickness of posting and overall volume but Las Vegas shops that get the job done are Westgate, Wynn and CG. If you like to follow the numbers, you should check out the VI Live Odds screen and coordinate with our customer service team to get a free trial.


Week 1


The opening week is never an easy handicap but there are some solid opening game trends that are in play for Week 1.


Saints: Over 4-1 last five. The club is also 1-4 during this stretch, allowing 31, 37, 40 and 42 in the setbacks.


Giants: Over 6-1


Bills: Under 3-0


Bears: Over 4-1


Bengals: Over 5-1


Lions: Over 5-0 last five. Offense has scored 27, 27, 34, 25 and 28 points the last five openers.


Packers: Over 5-0. The defense has allowed 30-plus points in four of the five during this span.


Rams: Over 3-1. Defense under Jeff Fisher has surrendered 27, 24, 34 and 31 points.


Divisional Matchups


Week 1 has four divisional matchups on tap.


Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The ‘under’ went 2-0 in this series last season as the Buccaneers stifled the Falcons to 19 and 20 points while pulling off the rare sweep for Tampa Bay. The totals in those games ranged from 46 ½ to 47 ½ and this week’s number is in the same neighborhood. The big question mark for Sunday is Atlanta’s offense, which averaged 32.4 PPG in its first five games. However, that number was sliced in half (16.1 PPG) in the remaining 11 games. Tampa Bay (21 PPG) wasn’t exactly great offensively last season but some pundits believe new head coach Dirk Koetter should improve that number. Sticking with coaching, former Atlanta head coach Mike Smith is now Tampa Bay’s DC which could give the familiarity edge to the Bucs. Bettors should note that Atlanta has seen a combined 56.3 PPG in its last six home openers.


San Diego at Kansas City: Based on recent history between the pair, it’s a little surprising that the line has gone up. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and the Chargers have been held to 8.3 PPG during this span. Ken Whisenhunt returns to the Bolts as offensive coordinator and he should help an attack that struggled. However, Andy Reid loves the ground-and-pound style and for what it’s worth, the San Diego run defense was horrible in the preseason.


N.Y. Giants at Dallas: Very hard total to handicap due to the Tony Romo injury but this series is on an 8-2 run to the ‘over’ in the last 10 meetings. Neither the Giants (27.6 PPG) or Cowboys (23.4 PPG) were great defensively last season, which is part of the reason these teams have played to shootouts. Will those units improve? Can the rookie (Dak Prescott) continue his success in the regular season? The answers to those questions will definitely play a part in Sunday’s outcome.


Los Angeles at San Francisco: (See Below)


Under the Lights


New England at Arizona: I’d probably sit on the sidelines with this game just because of the Tom Brady-Jimmy Garoppolo situation for the Patriots. Arizona was a beast offensively (29.4 PPG, 399 YPG) last season and it’s known to be a front-runner, especially at home. I expect the Cardinals to get four to five scores in this game but I’m not sure if a short-handed New England squad will be able to answer, especially now with tight end Rob Gronkowski sidelined.

Pittsburgh at Washington: High total for this game and it’s understandable considering the Steelers (25.4 PPG) and Redskins (23.9 PPG) have proven that they can put points on the board behind capable quarterbacks. Washington’s defense (24.4 PPG) is suspect on defense and that unit was exposed at the end of last season. Pittsburgh has gone 9-3 to the ‘over’ in its last 12 versus NFC teams while Washington has also been a decent ‘over’ lean (7-5) versus the AFC in the same span. Lastly, even though the Steelers won’t have running back Le’Veon Bell (suspension) available on Monday, bettors should note that he only played six games last season and the ‘under’ went 6-0 in those contests.


Los Angeles at San Francisco: Based on the recent angles, it’s hard to make an argument for the ‘over’ in this late-night tilt. These teams played to a pair of ugly outcomes last season and the ‘under’ cashed in both contests. The books sent out a bad opener (46) and it’s been pushed down to 43. Levi’s Stadium has been the best ‘under’ bet in football since it opened in 2014, watching the low side go 13-3 in the first 16 games. The Rams saw the ‘under’ go 7-1 on the road last season.


Fearless Predictions


I hope everybody had a nice offseason and you’re ready to roll this fall. Remember it’s a long season and the feedback is always appreciated, both good and bad. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Green Bay-Jacksonville 48


Best Under: Buffalo-Baltimore 44 ½

Best Team Total: Over Philadelphia 22


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)


Over Green Bay-Jacksonville 39


Over Miami-Seattle 35


Over Pittsburgh-Washington 40 ½

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 1
September 10, 2016


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1


1) Detroit +3 (465)


2) Arizona -6 (452)


3) N.Y. Giants -1.5 (428)


4) Houston -6 (419)


5) Baltimore -3 (411)




SUPERCONTEST WEEK 1 MATCHUPS & ODDS


Away Team Selections Home Team Selections


Carolina (-3) 180 Denver (+3) 141


Tampa Bay (+2.5) 369 Atlanta (-2.5) 232


Minnesota (-1.5) 368 Tennessee (+1.5) 265


Cleveland (+4) 300 Philadelphia (-4) 133


Cincinnati (-2.5) 292 N.Y. Jets (+2.5) 403


Oakland (+1.5) 311 New Orleans (-1.5) 334


San Diego (+6.5) 399 Kansas City (-6.5) 268


Buffalo (+3) 181 Baltimore (-3) 411


Chicago (+6) 289 Houston (-6) 419


Green Bay (-5.5) 294 Jacksonville (+5.5) 342


Miami (+10.5) 216 Seattle (-10.5) 165


N.Y. Giants (-1.5) 428 Dallas (+1.5) 232


Detroit (+3.5) 465 Indianapolis (-3.5) 193


New England (+6) 169 Arizona (-6) 452


Pittsburgh (-3) 322 Washington (+3) 322


Los Angeles (-2.5) 192 San Francisco (+2.5) 173

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 1
September 10, 2016




NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Bengals are 9-0-1 ATS since Sep 23, 2012 when they are playing a team with the same record.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Colts are 0-7 ATS in their season opener if the total is under 55.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Chargers are 0-10 O/U since November 2013 as a dog when they lost the last time they faced this team with Philip Rivers throwing for 230-430 yards.


NFL ATS SYSTEM:


-- Week 1 underdogs who were favored by an average of at least 1.7 ppg last season are 23-50-1 ATS. Active against New England and NY Jets.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The 49ers are 0-11 O/U since Dec 04, 2005 at home when the line is within 3 of pick and vs a divisional opponent.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Giants are 9-0 O/U since Sep 20, 2009 as a dog playing on turf vs a divisional opponent.

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Patriots at Cardinals
September 10, 2016


Only six teams have season win totals posted at 10 wins or more and Sunday night's matchup features two of them as the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots visit the Arizona Cardinals in the most interesting, and maybe most important, game of Week 1 action.


Both teams made the final four last season and both come in this year as conference favorites to make the Super Bowl.


Some of the pressing questions that will be answered is whether or not backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo can prove to be an adequate replacement as Brady serves his ridiculous four-game Deflategate suspension.


Also, can the Cardinals regroup after its no. 1 ranked offense got blown out in the NFC title game at Carolina?

Arizona Cardinals
Season win total: 10 (Over -170)
Odds to win NFC West: 6/5
Odds to win NFC: 4/1 (co-favorite)
Odds to win Super Bowl: 8/1

New England Patriots
Season win total: 10.5 (Over -120)
Odds to win AFC East: 4/9
Odds to win AFC: 11/4 (favorite)
Odds to win Super Bowl: 6/1 (favorite)

LINE MOVEMENT


When the Westgate SuperBook opened Week 1 numbers April 20, this was a pick 'em game showing that their early ratings on a neutral field with Brady starting had the Patriots 3-points better than the Cardinals. Within five days, bettors didn't think so and slightly pushed Arizona to -1, albeit with just a $5,000 limit at the time.


Shortly after, news broke that Brady's petition would be denied and the four-game suspension would stand. The Westgate reposted the number July 13 with Arizona installed as a 5.5-point favorite and on Sept. 2 it was pushed up -6. Through the same process, the total has also been adjusted down from an opener of 51 in April all the way down to 47.

BRADY EFFECT


Just how important is Tom Brady to the number? It's relative to who the back-up is, and apparently Garoppolo has some respect from Las Vegas even though he's never started a game and made only 31 attempts in two seasons since picked in the second round of the 2014 draft out of Eastern Illinois.


Aaron Rodgers is considered the most important player in the league worth up to 8-points in some oddsmakers minds, and his back-ups have proven to be disastrous when forced to pilot Green Bay's scheme. The initial reaction to the ratings by the Westgate is that Brady is worth 5.5-points, in part because the Bill Belichick way of doing things annually using interchangeable parts.


Remember, Matt Cassell went 11-4 when Brady got hurt in 2008. The Westgate also didn't budge much with the future odds, despite Brady missing the first four games. They're still favored to win the AFC East, AFC and Super Bowl, meaning they're still expecting the Patriots to get home field in the playoffs.

HONEY BADGER RETURNS


Tyrann Mathieu was the heart and soul of a Cardinals defense that helped the team get to a 13-2 start, including winning in his last eight starts. Late in the 15th game at Philadelphia, where he recorded his fifth interception of the season, he tore his ACL for the second time in his career and his season was over. While the injury wasn't reflected much in Arizona's rating, the defense's level of play the next three games without him was evident.


Arizona would go on to lose 36-6 at home to Seattle in Week 17, need overtime to beat the Packers 26-20 in the divisional playoff and then get embarrassed 49-15 in the NFC title game at Carolina. They didn't cover the number in any of those games, either.


He didn't play any pre-season games as precaution, but he's completely healthy and expected to be on the field for every defensive play against the Patriots. There aren't many defensive players that have an effect on a spread, but Mathieu's all-purpose ability make him the Cardinals most important defensive player.

NEW DEFENSIVE FORCE IN ARIZONA


Chandler Jones had 12.5 sacks in 15 regular season games for the Patriots last season, but New England decided to trade him to Arizona in March for offensive line help in Jonathan Cooper and the Cards second-round pick. Arizona's sack leader last season was Dwight Freeney with eight in 11 games. The trade immediately upgrades the Cards' defense that was No. 20 in the league last year with 36 sacks.


While Arizona got better, the Pats defense is downgraded, especially since Rob Ninkovich is suspended for the first four games for using a banned substance. Arizona also may have got one of the steals of the draft with speedy defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche out of Ole Miss.

RECENT MEETINGS (New England 5-1 both SU & ATS last six)


9/16/12 - Arizona 20-18 at New England (NE -13, 47)
12/21/08 - Arizona at New England 47-7 (NE -9, 43.5)
9/19/04 - New England 23-12 at Arizona (NE -7.5, 41.5)

PATS RECENT ROAD WOES


The Patriots have lost their last their last three road games outright as favorites (-3 at DEN, -10 at MIA, -2.5 at NYJ). The Week 16 and 17 losses last season cost them home field for the playoffs which forced them to eventually play in Denver for the AFC Championship game, where they barely lost, 20-18.


Despite playing well below their rating going 4-6-2 ATS in their final 12 regular season games, the Patriots had the top Las Vegas rating -- just slightly above the Cardinals -- heading into the playoffs.

PATRIOTS AS A DOG


New England was an underdog only once last season, +2 at Buffalo, and won 40-32. Over the past three seasons the Pats are 6-1 both SU and ATS in the seven games where they got points and the total also has gone 'over' in six of those games. However, none were without Brady starting.

2015 ARIZONA-TO-OVER PARLAY


Arizona has stayed 'under' the total in six of its last eight games, but if you blindly played an Arizona-Over parlay for $100 every week of the 2015 regular season you would have come out $920 ahead as it cashed seven times. The Cardinals' top-ranked offense came out of the gate swinging early going 'over' the total in their first five games and covering four of them.

ROBERTS' PARLAY ADVICE


Most parlays aren't recommended because that is how the sports books make all their money, but a case can be made for playing the two-team 13-to-5 parlay (Bet $100 to win $260) because it actually offers true odds unlike the rest of the payouts on the books' parlay chart.


The side-to-total two-team parlay of the same game offers even more value because you're not dealing with outcomes in two different games. If you've handicapped a side you like well, then you probably have an idea how the flow of the game will be. If one thing happens, the other is more likely. And if you're wrong about the side, the parlay is dead anyways.


As an example, last season the Minnesota-to-Under parlay cashed in 11 of their 17 games.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED


The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 2 has the Patriots 5.5-point home favorites over the Dolphins and the Cardinals -8.5 at home against the Buccaneers.


The Patriots number could move by as much as 1.5-point each way when re-posted Monday morning depending on how Garoppolo looks against the Cardinals.

 

[CNOTES]

Line Moves - Week 1
September 9, 2016




Las Vegas sports books kicked off the 2016 NFL season to proportions maybe never seen before with massive handle and a big 21-20 Broncos home win over the favored Panthers. Bettors came strong and hard on the Panthers to exact revenge from the Super Bowl loss pushing the line from Denver -3 in April to Carolina -3.


"We had a ton of handle last night, over seven-figures," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "It might be the most action we'll see on a regular season game all year. It was double what the Steelers-Patriots kickoff game was last season and also way more than the next most handled game of Week 1 in the Sunday night game (Giants-Cowboys) last season.


"We needed the Broncos to win outright and the Panthers missing that last field goal was huge for us. It was our best scenario."


On Friday afternoon, Simbal discussed all CG Technology's major line moves since posting Week 1 numbers on April 15 to where they're at now. So far, they've only had three big wise guy plays and four games are stacked large with massive public parlay plays. Let's take a look at how all the numbers have shaped up over the long summer of waiting for NFL action.


CG Tech books opened Atlanta as a 3-point home favorite over Tampa Bay in April with a total 48, and the number has been spot on with no big takers on either side as the Falcons now sit -3 (EV) and 47.5. The Bucs swept both games last season and the Falcons went on a 2-10 ATS slide after covering their first four games. The Falcons were also the best UNDER team last season going 13-2-1.


Minnesota opened as a 2-point road favorite at Tennessee on the basis of Teddy Bridgewater starting and the games was bet up -3 (-120) in early August. But when Bridgewater went out with a season-ending injury the line was readjusted to -1.5 and then moved to -2 with either Sam Bradford or Shaun Hill in as the replacement (no announcement from coach Mike Zimmer as of Friday). The opening total of 43 has dropped down to 41. The Vikings went to 12-4-1 to the UNDER last season.


The largest line move from April's early numbers to now, aside from Thursday night's game that moved six points, has been Philadelphia dropping from an 8.5-point favorite over Cleveland all the way down to -3.5. A lot has happened since then, most notably the Eagles deciding to trade Sam Bradford and not start Chase Daniel, who followed new coach from Kansas City, and opt to build for the future and start rookie first-round pick Carson Wentz. The Browns went 0-4 in the preseason while the Eagles were 4-0.


"It's been all straight bets moving the number," said Simbal. "The smart guys have been taking the Browns all the way. We have 25-times more money on the Browns and can't find many takers on the Eagles, who we are going to need as one of our biggest decisions on Sunday."


Cincinnati opened a 1-point road favorite at the Jets and by August the number had moved to -2 and earlier this week it went to -2.5. The total has dropped from 43 down to 41. The Bengals went 12-3-2 ATS last season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road. The Jets have covered eight of its last 11 home games.


New Orleans opened pick 'em at home against Oakland with a total set at 50 and for over a onth now the Saints have been -1 and 51. The Raiders went 6-2 ATS on the road last season while the Saints lost four of eight at home where they allowed opponents to average 31.6 ppg. The Saints have gone OVER in five of six games the last three seasons when set as home favorite of -3 or less.


Kansas City opened as 7-point home favorites over San Diego and the number dropped this week down to -6.5 with the total also moving, jumping up from 43 to 44.5. The Chiefs have won the last four meetings -- all UNDER total -- and have covered four of the last five. The Chargers went 6-2 ATS on the road last season, three of them coming against AFC West opponents which ended a 0-9 ATS run against division foes.


"This is one of the three sharp plays we've had this week," Simbal said. "They like the Chargers."


Baltimore has been a strong 3-point home favorite throughout against Buffalo with the total moving from 43.5 to 44. The Ravens were one of the most disappointing teams last season covering just once at home last season.


Houston opened as a 6-point home favorite against Chicago and that's where it's at now, but not before the number dropped to -4.5 and then got as high as -6.5 earlier this week. The total has been bumped up from 44 to 44.5. "The Texans are one of the most bet public parlay games of the week," said Simbal.


Green Bay opened as a 3-point favorite at Jacksonville and it was quickly bet to -4.5 and moved to -5 this week. The total rose from 47 to a high of 48, but has settled at 47.5 this week. The Packers have gone UNDER in 11 of its last 15 games, but are 9-2 to the OVER in their last 11 September games.


"Tons of public action on the Packers making it one of our biggest liabilities of the week," Simbal said. "There aren't many large bets, but tons of small action adding up quickly."


Seattle's number has been gradually moving higher for their home game against Miami, opening at -8.5 to -9 in July, then to -10 in August and to -10.5 on Saturday. The total dropped from 44.5 to 44 in August. The Dolphins have covered the number only five times in its last 21 games. "This is another one of those big parlay games for us; one-sided action on Seattle," said Simbal.


Dallas opened as 4.5-point home favorites against the Giants when Tony Romo was expected play, and bettors took the points dropping it to -3 (-120) in early August. When Romo hurt his back on his third snap of his preseason, all books took the game off the board and regrouped. Because rookie QB Dak Prescott looked so good in preseason, there wasn't too big an adjustment with the Cowboys being reposted at pick 'em. The 3-point move also occurred on the total with the number dropping from 50 down to 46.5. The Giants have covered the last three meetings and the OVER has happened in their last seven.


Indianapolis opened as 4-point home favorites against Detroit and got as high as -4.5, but it's been steadily dropping this week. A few books in Las Vegas are at -3-flat, while CG has moved from -3.5-flat to -3.5 (-105) to -3.5 (EV). The total has remained steady at 50. Detroit won and covered its final three games last season and have stayed UNDER in 14 of their last 18 road games. "Yeah, the sharps like the Lions this week," said Simbal.


Arizona was posted as 1-point home favorites over New England when Tom Brady was expected to play, but then his Deflategate suspension was upheld and he's miss the first four games. CG immediately moved the number to -6 and then Patriots money pushed them to -4.5. By May 28, the number got as low as -3.5, but it's been on a steady climb upward since getting to a high of -6.5 on Thursday until going back to -6 a few minutes later. The total has taken a dive as well going from 51.5 all the way down to 46.


"We found that Patriots money is there at +6.5, which is why we're down to -6 now, but we were bet all the way up with Arizona bets, and we've also got Arizona as one of the big public favorites on parlays," said Simbal.


In the early Monday night game, Pittsburgh has been a steady 3-point favorite at Washington throughout. The total has dropped from 50.5 to 49.5. The Steelers stayed UNDER in eight of 10 road games last season.


The west coast Monday night game has seen Los Angeles -- love saying that in the NFL again -- go from a 1-point favorite at San Francisco up to -2.5. The total has dropped from 46 down to 43. The 49ers have stayed UNDER in eight of their last 10 games against NFC West opponents. "We just don't want this game to land 44, because our only OVER bet was at 43," Simbal said. "Every other limit bet we took was on the UNDER."


So for a quick recap, the sharps betting at CG Tech books like Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit. The dreaded four-team parlay cashing they fear the most is Green Bay hooked up to Arizona, Seattle and Houston. Prior to Thursday's result, it was a dreaded five-teamer that included the Panthers.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL ACTION TRENDS


ATS


10:20 pm 9/12/2016
(481) LA RAMS @(482) SAN FRANCISCO
Play ON SAN FRANCISCO against the spread in All games when playing on Monday night.
The record is 30 Wins and 10 Losses since 1992 (+19 units)
BET NOW!
4:25 pm 9/11/2016
(473) NY GIANTS @(474) DALLAS
Play AGAINST DALLAS against the spread in All games in games played on turf.
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.9 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(455) MINNESOTA @(456) TENNESSEE
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all games.
The record is 14 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+10.7 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(455) MINNESOTA @(456) TENNESSEE
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all lined games.
The record is 14 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+10.7 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(459) CINCINNATI @(460) NY JETS
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in All games in road lined games.
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


---------------------

NFL MONEYLINE








10:20 pm 9/12/2016
(481) LA RAMS @(482) SAN FRANCISCO
Play AGAINST LA RAMS using the money line in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 35 Wins and 79 Losses since 1992 (-49.2 units)
BET NOW!
7:10 pm 9/12/2016
(479) PITTSBURGH @(480) WASHINGTON
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using the money line in Home games when playing on Monday night.
The record is 4 Wins and 14 Losses since 1992 (-16.65 units)
BET NOW!
7:10 pm 9/12/2016
(479) PITTSBURGH @(480) WASHINGTON
Play ON PITTSBURGH using the money line in All games when playing on Monday night.
The record is 27 Wins and 10 Losses since 1992 (+21 units)
BET NOW!
4:25 pm 9/11/2016
(475) DETROIT @(476) INDIANAPOLIS
Play AGAINST DETROIT using the money line in Road games in dome games.
The record is 9 Wins and 34 Losses since 1992 (-25.55 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(463) SAN DIEGO @(464) KANSAS CITY
Play AGAINST SAN DIEGO using the money line in All games in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points.
The record is 14 Wins and 30 Losses since 1992 (-25.25 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(467) CHICAGO @(468) HOUSTON
Play ON CHICAGO using the money line in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 4 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+8.3 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(461) OAKLAND @(462) NEW ORLEANS
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using the money line in All games in September games.
The record is 1 Wins and 6 Losses for the last three seasons (-10.4 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(461) OAKLAND @(462) NEW ORLEANS
Play AGAINST OAKLAND using the money line in All games in games where the money line is +130 to -150.
The record is 40 Wins and 80 Losses since 1992 (-51.2 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(459) CINCINNATI @(460) NY JETS
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using the money line in All games against AFC East division opponents.
The record is 13 Wins and 35 Losses since 1992 (-32.75 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(465) BUFFALO @(466) BALTIMORE
Play ON BALTIMORE using the money line in Home games in September games.
The record is 27 Wins and 7 Losses since 1992 (+21.7 units)
BET NOW!


---------------------------


NFL TOTALS


10:20 pm 9/12/2016
(481) LA RAMS @(482) SAN FRANCISCO
Play UNDER SAN FRANCISCO on the total in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 1 Overs and 11 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(453) TAMPA BAY @(454) ATLANTA
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in All games in all lined games.
The record is 2 Overs and 14 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.8 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(453) TAMPA BAY @(454) ATLANTA
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in All games in all games.
The record is 2 Overs and 14 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.8 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

NFL POWER LINES


1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(463) SAN DIEGO @(464) KANSAS CITY
Play Line: KANSAS CITY -6.5
BTB PowerLine: KANSAS CITY -16
Edge On: KANSAS CITY 9.5


1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(455) MINNESOTA @(456) TENNESSEE
Play Line: MINNESOTA -2.5
BTB PowerLine: MINNESOTA -17
Edge On: MINNESOTA 14.5


1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(461) OAKLAND @(462) NEW ORLEANS
Play Line: OAKLAND 3
BTB PowerLine: OAKLAND -1
Edge On: OAKLAND 4


1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(465) BUFFALO @(466) BALTIMORE
Play Line: BUFFALO 3
BTB PowerLine: BUFFALO -1
Edge On: BUFFALO 4


1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(453) TAMPA BAY @(454) ATLANTA
Play Line: ATLANTA -2.5
BTB PowerLine: ATLANTA -7
Edge On: ATLANTA 4.5


1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(469) GREEN BAY @(470) JACKSONVILLE
Play Line: GREEN BAY -3.5
BTB PowerLine: GREEN BAY -10
Edge On: GREEN BAY 6.5


4:05 pm 9/11/2016
(471) MIAMI @(472) SEATTLE
Play Line: SEATTLE -10.5
BTB PowerLine: SEATTLE -20
Edge On: SEATTLE 9.5


4:25 pm 9/11/2016
(475) DETROIT @(476) INDIANAPOLIS
Play Line: DETROIT 2.5
BTB PowerLine: DETROIT -3
Edge On: DETROIT 5.5


4:25 pm 9/11/2016
(473) NY GIANTS @(474) DALLAS
Play Line: DALLAS 1
BTB PowerLine: DALLAS -5
Edge On: DALLAS 6


8:30 pm 9/11/2016
(477) NEW ENGLAND @(478) ARIZONA
Play Line: NEW ENGLAND 9.5
BTB PowerLine: NEW ENGLAND +2
Edge On: NEW ENGLAND 7.5

 

[CNOTES]

NFL BEST BETS:


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks...........0 - 0 - 0


O/U Picks...........0 - 0 - 0




SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 11


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


CLE at PHI 01:00 PM

PHI -4.0


O 41.0


BUF at BAL 01:00 PM

BAL -3.0


U 44.5




CHI at HOU 01:00 PM


CHI +5.5


U 42.0




OAK at NO 01:00 PM


OAK +2.5


O 50.0




CIN at NYJ 01:00 PM

CIN -1.0


U 42.0




SD at KC 01:00 PM

SD +6.5


U 45.5




MIN at TEN 01:00 PM


TEN +2.5


U 40.5




GB at JAC 01:00 PM

JAC +3.5


O 47.0



TB at ATL 01:00 PM


TB +2.5


U 45.5

 

[CNOTES]

AFTERNOON GAMES


MIA at SEA 04:05 PM


MIA +10.5


U 43.5




DET at IND 04:25 PM


IND -2.5


O 50.5




NYG at DAL 04:25 PM


NYG -1.0


O 47.5

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL


NE at ARI 08:30 PM


ARI -9.5


U 44.5

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s six-pack


Six most popular picks in the Westgate Super Contest in Las Vegas:


6) Jets +2.5– 403– W


5) Ravens -3– 411– W


4) Texans -6– 419– W


3) Giants -1.5– 428– L


2) Cardinals -6– 452– L


1) Lions +3.5– 465– W (4-2 in Week 1)



Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..


Random thoughts on all of Sunday’s NFL games………


Buccaneers 31, Falcons 24– Three of Bucs’ four TDs came on plays of 23+ yards; former Atlanta HC Smith gets some revenge here- he is Tampa Bay’s new DC. Before the 2015 Draft, there was a lot of debate as to whether Winston/Mariota was better choice as the #1 pick. Not much debate now; Winston is very good.


Vikings 25, Titans 16– Minnesota won despite not scoring TD on offense; LY, that happened only two times in whole NFL, with Denver getting both wins. Titans led this game 10-0 at half; Vikings looked awful on offense, but then the Minnesota defense scored two TDs in second half to win the game. Three trips to red zone, only six points for Minnesota. Hard to believe Bradford won’t be the starting QB soon.


Eagles 29, Browns 10– Philly had 17-yard edge in average starting field position; Wentz was 22-37/270 passing as he won his first NFL start. Browns have 17 rookies on their squad and it showed. RGIII hurt his left arm late in game (check status). Cleveland had four plays of 20+ yards; all four came on 1st down plays (rest of NFL, 38 of 83 plays of 20+ yards came on first down plays).


Bengals 23, Jets 22– Jets had seven sacks, outrushed Cincy 152-57, but Dalton led Bengals 55 yards on nine plays on GW drive, with Nugent making 47-yard FG with 0:54 left for the win. Teams got to red zone a combined eight times, with only three TDs- they combined to go 7-23 on third down. This was a fun game to watch; Dalton threw for 366 yards for Bengals.


Game of the Day: Raiders 35, Saints 34– Old-style AFL game here, with total yardage 507-486. Jack Del Rio went for 2 points and the win with 0:47 here and got it- on their last three drives, Oakland ran 17 plays for 210 yards and three TDs. Brees threw for 419 yards including a 98-yard TD pass. Raiders survived 14 penalties for 141 yards.


Comeback of the Day: Chiefs 33, Chargers 27 OT– San Diego led this game 24-3 with 5:00 left in 3rd quarter; horrific loss. On their last six drives, Chiefs scored four TDs, kicked a FG, gaining 317 yards on 42 plays with one turnover. Alex Smith is now 69-52-1 as an NFL starter.


San Diego started three drives in KC territory, but scored only one TD, one FG on those drives and that wound up costing them.


Ravens 13, Bills 7– Bills ran only 48 plays for 160 yards. My one thought here is: thank God Rex Ryan doesn’t coach the Rams. Buffalo had a 9-yard edge in field position, which is pretty strong, but still lost.


NFL-wide this week, 16 of 67 TDs this week (so far) came on scoring plays on 20+ yards; 51 of those 67 TDs came on drives of 70+ yards. No TDs on defense/special teams (yet).


Texans 23, Bears 14– Houston converted 12 of 20 third down plays, ran 18 more plays than Chicago, outscoring Bears 13-0 in second half. On four drives that started 75+ yards from goal line, Texans did not score; on their other seven drives with better field position, they scored three TDs, kicked two FGs. Houston sacked Jay Cutler five times.


Packers 27, Jaguars 23– Green Bay led 21-17 at half, won despite scoring only six points in second half on a sweltering day in North Florida. Jacksonville was pretty impressive in defeat; they outgained Pack 348-294, averaged 7.1 yards/pass, but ran for only 48 yards.


Seahawks 12, Dolphins 10– After not scoring a TD the whole game, Russell Wilson led Seattle on a 14-play, 75-yard drive to win the game in last minute. Tough loss for Miami; they were +2 in turnovers and had 10-yard edge in field position, but were outgained 352-222 and had only 64 rushing yards. Dolphins had a 26-yard FG blocked and lost ball on downs in red zone early in game.


Giants 20, Cowboys 19– First time Giants beat Cowboys in eight Week 1 meetings. Not many teams go 10-17 on third down and score only one TD; only Dallas TD drive was 35 yards. Giants had three TDs, no FG tries; Dallas had one TD, four FG tries.


Lions 39, Colts 35– Watching last 2:00 of this game, with Luck/Stafford driving their teams in 2:00 drill for go-ahead scores; star QBs cannot be overpaid– really difficult to have good team without one. Detroit led this game 21-3, almost let it slip away.


Patriots 23, Cardinals 21– Garoppolo passed his first of four tests as Brady’s stand-in; Pats were 10-16 on 3rd down, averaged 7.3 yds/pass attempt. Arizona missed a 46-yard FG with 0:04 left that would’ve won it. Weird week; teams that were -2 or worse in turnovers are 3-1, very unusual.


Favorites are 4-10 vs spread so far this week, home teams 6-8; over is 6-8.

 

[CNOTES]

Steelers head to D.C.
September 9, 2016


NFL Week 1 MNF Betting Preview


Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Redskins


Sportsbook.ag Lines: Pittsburgh (-3.5); Total Set at 50.5


Two playoff teams from the 2015 season meet in the first game of the annual Week 1 MNF double header and the perception of these two teams is very different coming into 2016. On one hand we've got the Pittsburgh Steelers and a WR in Antonio Brown who fantasy gurus have been raving about all summer. Brown is even being mentioned as a potential NFL MVP candidate – a rarity for WR's – and he's just one of the many weapons the Steelers have. There are plenty of bettors out there who've also got Super Bowl futures tickets in their pocket on the Steelers as they expect this organization to go all the way in 2016.

On the other hand we've got a Washington team who won their division a season ago and almost everyone believes it was a bit of a fluke. They did catch an enormous amount of breaks in that Tony Romo went down for Dallas, the Eagles absolutely stunk and hated their head coach, and the Giants couldn't get out of their own way and cost themselves multiple games late. But you've still got to be a quality team to win your division in this league and Washington could surprise many this season by proving 2015 wasn't as “fluky” as some are led to believe.


So based on those two underlying perceptions, is this -3.5 spread a trap game for Pittsburgh backers? Is the number way too low? Or is their value in the total?


It's tough to consider any Week 1 game a “trap game” as every player across the league is amped up to get a new season started. But while some will lean that way because the Steelers have a rematch with Cincinnati on deck (after how the Wildcard game between those two rivals finished), I wouldn't be so quick to subscribe to that belief. Pittsburgh will be a very good team this year and while they could have an eye on the Bengals, there is no way they want to enter that Week 2 game with an 0-1 record.


That being said, running to the betting window and laying the points with Pittsburgh is something I'm not looking to do either, as the spread was set at this number for a reason and that nasty hook on -3 could very well come into play. Washington's got their own team to worry about and clearly they are eager to prove all their doubters wrong this year.


Therefore, it's the total I'm looking at here as the bulk of the action so far has come in on the high side of this number, yet it's moved down off the key number of 51. That's a pretty big sign to me that while everyone in the NFL betting or fantasy worlds believe Pittsburgh's offense will be one of the best in 2016, it might take them a week or two to fully get going and reach their potential. Remember, most of these starters had limited snaps over the preseason and conditioning and being in “football shape” will still take some time. It's not like Washington's defense is atrocious either and all that time to prepare for Antonio Brown and Big Ben has to help out Washington's defense here.


So rather than wrestle with the idea of this being a short spread or some type of trap game, I'm going to go ahead and follow the move here on the total and take the 'under' 50.5 points. Both of these teams will be working out the cobwebs early on, and with Pittsburgh on a 0-4 O/U run on the road and Washington on a 0-4 O/U under the Monday night lights, this game won't surpass that number.


Take Under 50.5 points.