Cnotes 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 16
December 26, 2016

Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 16 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 10-5
Against the Spread 8-7


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 10-5
Against the Spread 8-7


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 12-3

The largest underdogs to win straight up


Cardinals (+9, ML +350) at Seahawks, 34-31
49ers (+6, ML +210) at Rams, 22-21
Browns (+5, ML +180) vs. Chargers, 20-17
Dolphins (+4.5, ML +190) at Bills, 34-31 (OT)
Jaguars (+4.5, ML +180) vs. Titans, 38-17

The largest favorite to cover


Patriots (-17) vs. Jets, 41-3
Packers (-6.5) vs. Vikings, 38-25
Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Broncos, 33-10
Raiders (-3.5) vs. Colts, 33-25

The Patriot Way


-- The New England Patriots managed to cover the biggest spread of the 2016 National Football League regular season, and it was never really close. The Patriots closed as 17-point favorites against the Jets, who normally play the Pats pretty close. Not so in this one, however, as the Pats were still playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the Jets were banged up and just playing out the string. The cover was the fourth straight for the Patriots, and runs their record to an NFL-best 12-3 ATS this season. If you like to play totals, the 'under' is 5-1 in their past six, too, and 10-5 overall.


Take Pack...and R-E-L-A-X


-- Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers always tells everyone to "Relax!" when things start going south. The team ws 4-6 SU after a losing a fourth straight in Washington Nov. 20. But Rodgers and the Packers believed in themselves, and, more importantly, they started to get healthy. Since, the Packers have rattled off five consecutive victories and have themselves positioned for a winner-take-all game in Detroit Jan. 1 for the NFC North Division title. Not only are the Packers winning, but they're covering, too. The Packers are 4-1 ATS during their five-game win streak, and the 'over' has cashed in three in a row.
Total Recall


-- It was a very high-scoring week in the NFL, with the 'over' going 12-3 heading into Monday's Detroit Lions-Dallas Cowboys (45.5) battle at Jerry's World. In eight games between AFC foes, the 'over' finished 5-3. The 'over' was a perfect 7-0 in NFC play, with the Monday night game pending.


-- The two games with totals over 50 points each ended up going 'over', as Indianapolis-Oakland (51.5) and Tampa Bay-New Orleans (53) each cashed. The Raiders lost QB Derek Carr to a serious injury late, and the Raiders were scoreless in the fourth quarter. But the Colts outscored them 11-0 to push the total into the win column in the final quarter. The Bucs-Saints combined for just 27 total points two weeks ago in Tampa, but that was also in the rain. With just 20 points on the board at halftime, defenses were reigning surpreme. However, the two sides combined for 29 points in a wild third quarter, and exchanged field goals in the fourth to push the total over.


-- Week 16 saw two games with lines under 40, and they each went to the 'over' column as well. San Francisco-Los Angeles (39.5) was a crazy 'over' result, as the two teams combined for 21 points in the first quarter before going scoreless in both the second and third quarters. In fact, it was a late TD by Colin Kaepernick to Rod Streater, which was reviewed, pushing the total over in the final minute. Denver-Kansas City (38) was expected to be a defensive slog, and with torrential rains at kickoff, the weather figured to help. It didn't. The two teams combined for 28 points in the first quarter. Like the Niners-Rams, the offenses took the second and third quarters off, as there were just three points in the third by Denver. However, K.C. saved the day with 12 points in the final stanza.


-- The 'over' went 3-0 in the first three primetime games heading into Monday's tussle between the Lions-Cowboys (45.5). Officially, the 'over' is 25-24 (51.0%) through 49 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report


-- Chargers RB Kenneth Farrow (shoulder) has been filling in for the injured RB Melvin Gordon (hip, knee) sidelined for the past two games, now Farrow is headed for the Reserve/Injured list. Gordon has an outside chance to play in Week 17. If not, it's up to RB Ronnie Hillman to handle the chores in the regular season finale.


-- 49ers RB Carlos Hyde (knee) suffered an injury to his medial collateral ligament in Saturday's win at L.A. and he has been ruled out for Week 17.


-- Raiders QB Derek Carr (fibula) snapped his fibula in the second half against the Colts, and it came on the only sack of the game for Indianapolis. As such, the Raiders open as 3 1/2-point underdog in Denver in Week 17 despite the fact the Broncos are playing for nothing. QB Matt McGloin will take the reins, with an outside chance Carr could return if the team miraculously made the Super Bowl.


-- Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (leg) broke both his tibia and fibula in his right leg in Saturday's loss against Arizona. He has already had surgery to repair the injury.


-- Titans QB Marcus Mariota (fibula) joined Carr headed for the surgeon's table, a cast and a lengthy rehab following a snapped fibula in Saturday's loss in Jacksonville.


Looking Ahead


-- The Dolphins host the Patriots in Week 17, with Miami locked into their seed in the AFC playoffs. New England, however, is still playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Miami lost 31-24 at New England in Week 2, and the Patriots covered as 5 1/2-point favorites. It has been a different story in South Florida in recent years, however, with the Dolphins 3-0 SU at home against the Patriots in the past three seasons dating back to Dec. 2, 2012. Miami has also covered four in a row at home against the Pats.


-- The Panthers wrap up their disappointing season in Tampa against the Buccaneers. The Bucs won 17-14 in a Monday nighter Oct. 10 in Charlotte, covering as six-point underdogs. It was the first win in the series in seven tries for Tampa Bay. The Panthers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series, including 3-0 SU/ATS in the past three trips to Raymond James Stadium.


-- The Steelers could potentially rest starters in the regular season finale against the Browns, and their line dropped from 11 to seven as a result. Still, Vegas thinks the backups of the Steelers are a touchdown better than the starters of the Browns. Pittsburgh won 24-9 in Cleveland Nov. 20, covering an eight-point number. If you're thinking the Browns can build on the momentum of their first win last week, think again. They haven't won in Pittsburgh since Oct. 5, 2003. The Steelers are 12-0 SU and 8-4 ATS during the span. Lately in this series the results have been the same - a Steelers win, cover and 'under'. Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS over the past eight meetings, with the 'under' 7-1.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Opening Line Report: NFC North title on the line when Packers meet Lions


The 2016 NFL regular season comes to a close Sunday night in Detriot, with the NFC North title on the line.


Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (OFF)


Green Bay is making a hard charge toward the NFC North crown, winning its last five games SU while going 4-1 ATS in that stretch. The Packers (9-6 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) rolled past Minnesota 38-25 Saturday as a 6-point home favorite.


Detroit (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) still has Week 16 work to do, playing in the Monday nighter at Dallas. The Lions had their own five-game winning streak going (4-1 ATS) before falling at the New York Giants 17-6 catching 4 points on Dec. 18.


With Detroit playing tonight, the line has not yet posted, though Kaminsky offered some speculation.


“I think Green Bay will be somewhere around -3. As I’m sitting here, I’m in a T-shirt, and the only thing written on it is ‘Relax,’” he said, alluding to Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ comment from a couple seasons ago when his team was struggling a bit but rebounded. Green Bay has done the same this year.


“I’m not an Aaron Rodgers fan as a person, but I would lean toward Green Bay to cover the spread,” Kaminsky said. “There’s something about Detroit, I’m just not enamored with the team. I think Rodgers has the ‘it’ factor, and Detroit has the ‘non-it’ factor.”


The winner of this game claims the division crown, while the loser will be fighting with Washington or Tampa Bay for the final NFC playoff berth.


New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5)


New York is already assured of one of the two wild-card slots from the NFC, thanks to its 8-2 SU run over the last 10 games (7-3 ATS). The Giants (10-5 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) lost Saturday at Philadelphia, 24-19 getting 1.5 points, but have still punched their postseason ticket.


Washington, meanwhile, needs a victory this week and some help, for sure. The Redskins (8-6-1 SU, 10-5 ATS) have lost three of their last five SU, but drilled Chicago 41-21 Saturday as a 3-point road favorite.


“The Giants have nothing to play for, and the Redskins need to win,” Kaminsky said. “I’m not a fan of betting on a team because it needs to win, but it’s tricky in this game – how much time are the Giants’ starters going to get? Week 17 is my least favorite thing to book in sports, because of who’s playing and who’s not playing. I hate it. I’d take break-even right now.”


Kaminsky said a little early money came in on the Redskins, but the line and the price are still at the opener of -7 (-115). And he offered bettors a little advice: keep an eye on the quarter lines, in the event New York announces its starters are only going to play a quarter or perhaps the first half. Some value can come up if you catch the oddsmakers sleeping.


Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)


Oakland was dealt a huge blow in Saturday’s victory over the Indianapolis Colts. The Raiders (12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS) lost quarterback Derek Carr to a broken leg in the fourth quarter of a 33-25 win as a 3.5-point chalk, ending Carr’s season. The Raiders are still in contention for the AFC’s No. 1 seed – though a loss this week could drop them into a wild-card spot.


Defending Super Bowl champion Denver, meanwhile, will wrap up its season Sunday, with no trip to the playoffs. The Broncos (8-7 SU and ATS) lost three in a row and four of their last five, going from 7-3 and firmly in the postseason picture to 8-7 and completely out. On Sunday night at Kansas City, Denver had nothing in the tank and took a 33-10 loss as a 3.5-point pup.


“Denver’s so bad,” Kaminsky said, noting the line is where it is only because of Carr’s absence. “I’d have Oakland -3.5 if Carr’s playing – about a 6-point difference.”


Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (+4)


Kansas City can still nab the AFC West title, and with it the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, if things fall right this week. The Chiefs (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) have gone 9-2 SU (7-4 ATS) in their last 11, capped by a 33-10 rout of Denver on Sunday night as a 3.5-point fave.


San Diego will have to settle for spoiler, with an opportunity to keep K.C. locked into the wild card. On Saturday, the Chargers (5-10 SU, 7-8 ATS) continued their habit of being on the short end of one-score games, while becoming Cleveland’s only victim all season in a 20-17 road loss laying 4.5 points.


TheGreek.com opened the Chiefs -4 (-120) and moved to 4.5 on Monday afternoon.


“San Diego pretty much played as well as it could with what it had this season,” Kaminsky said. “They had an abundance of injuries. I think Philip Rivers is really a good quarterback. I’d love to see him on a better team.


“And the Chiefs are just a solid team. They don’t do anything great, but they do everything well. Sunday night against Denver was a perfect example.”

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

Sunday, January 1

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HOUSTON (9 - 6) at TENNESSEE (8 - 7) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (7 - 8) at NY JETS (4 - 11) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 4-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (8 - 7) at CINCINNATI (5 - 9 - 1) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in January games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (10 - 5) at WASHINGTON (8 - 6 - 1) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 59-91 ATS (-41.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-111 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-111 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-111 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (9 - 6) at DETROIT (9 - 6) - 1/1/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 12) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 8) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (13 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (6 - 9) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 12) at MINNESOTA (7 - 8) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (6 - 9) at TAMPA BAY (8 - 7) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (1 - 14) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 5) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 100-70 ATS (+23.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 87-62 ATS (+18.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (7 - 8) at ATLANTA (10 - 5) - 1/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (13 - 2) at MIAMI (10 - 5) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 112-81 ATS (+22.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 78-53 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (6 - 8 - 1) at LA RAMS (4 - 11) - 1/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 175-223 ATS (-70.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-223 ATS (-70.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-175 ATS (-66.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (11 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 10) - 1/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 5-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (9 - 5 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 13) - 1/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 5-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (12 - 3) at DENVER (8 - 7) - 1/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 32-55 ATS (-28.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
OAKLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, January 1

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Jacksonville is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. TENNESSEE
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Tennessee is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Miami
New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing New England
Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY JETS
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Buffalo
NY Jets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. PITTSBURGH
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Carolina is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

4:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games at home
San Diego is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Kansas City

4:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 10 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games

4:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. LOS ANGELES
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the NY Giants last 10 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing NY Giants

4:25 PM
SEATTLE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games
San Francisco is 2-11-1 ATS in its last 14 games

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
Oakland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing at home against Oakland
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games
Detroit is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: My top 13 NFL teams……

13) Broncos— Curious to see who plays QB for the Broncos next season; I’m guessing it is someone who is not currently on their roster.

12) Texans— Won division title with JJ Watt missing the whole season; not bad.

11) Redskins— Can you imagine if Green Bay and Detroit tie Sunday night? People in our nation’s capital are not going to be very happy.

10) Dolphins— Can’t wait to bet under on their 2017 over/under win total.

9) Seahawks— Need to improve their offensive line this winter/spring.

8) Packers— It is basically impossible to overpay a guy like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, thats how much they mean to a $1B business.

7) Giants— I see Scott Linehan doing so well as OC in Dallas and Steve Spagniolo’s defense playing well in New Jersey, then I remember how terribly they did as head coach of the Rams. Timing is everything in life.

6) Steelers— I really liked their all-black uniforms they wore Christmas night.

5) Raiders— Derek Carr’s injury is just very unfortunate for a team having a great year.

4) Chiefs— Still unsure what that lineman’s TD pass was all about Sunday night, but they aggravated Denver, now they need help from the Broncos this week to win AFC West title.

3) Falcons— Falcons/Braves are both getting new stadiums next year; why?

2) Patriots— Since 2000, the AFC East has had 24 different head coaches; the Patriots have had one, other three teams 23.

1) Cowboys— Pounded Detroit in a game they didn’t even need. Impressive.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 17

Sun – Jan. 1

Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Houston: 7-0 ATS in road games versus division opponents
Tennessee: 0-7 ATS revenging a road loss against opponent

Buffalo at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 46-26 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
New York: 38-65 ATS off a road loss

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore: 25-11 UNDER after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games
Cincinnati: 8-19 ATS in home games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog

NY Giants at Washington, 4:25 PM ET
New York: 7-0 ATS after playing a Thursday game
Washington: 40-67 ATS as a home favorite

Green Bay at Detroit, 8:30 PM ET
Green Bay: 9-1 ATS off a division game
Detroit: 3-11 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville: 7-20 ATS after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game
Indianapolis: 33-16 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games

Dallas at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET
Dallas: 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Philadelphia: 48-26 UNDER in home games off a division game

Chicago at Minnesota, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 7-18 ATS after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored
Minnesota: 12-3 ATS off a division game

Carolina at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM ET
Carolina: 9-2 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Tampa Bay: 4-13 ATS in home games off 2 consecutive road losses

Cleveland at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland: 1-10 ATS versus division opponents
Pittsburgh: 9-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game

New Orleans at Atlanta, 4:25 PM ET
New Orleans: 12-4 ATS as an underdog
Atlanta: 8-27 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

New England at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
New England: 9-2 ATS against conference opponents
Miami: 15-33 ATS after a 2 game road trip

Arizona at Los Angeles, 4:25 PM ET
Arizona: 10-1 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game
Los Angeles: 5-16 ATS after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game

Kansas City at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
Kansas City: 6-0 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better
San Diego: 1-9 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Seattle at San Francisco, 4:25 PM ET
Seattle: 15-4 ATS after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game
San Francisco: 3-11 ATS in all lined games

Oakland at Denver, 4:25 PM ET
Oakland: 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Denver: 0-6 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 17

The Chiefs have been among the league leaders in turnover margin since the start of the campaign, and come into Week 17 ranked second in the NFL at a healthy +15.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3, 40)

Texans' ragged red zone stats vs. Titans' TD spree

This game will have no impact on the final playoff picture, with the Texans having already secured the AFC North title even with a loss to the rival Titans, who are on the outside looking in. But this contest still means plenty to Houston, which will have to decide on a starting quarterback between slumping Brock Osweiler and unproven Tom Savage. The latter can help his cause with a win over Tennessee, but he'll need to close the chasm in red-zone scoring between the teams.

Osweiler's first year as the main man in Houston was a colossal failure; the former Denver Broncos backup enters the regular season finale with just 2,704 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Among the litany of failures was his inability to convert in the red zone, as the Texas scored touchdowns on trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line just 39.02 percent of the time; only the woeful New York Jets had a harder time going from the red zone to the end zone.

That could mean big trouble Sunday against a Titans team that had no trouble converting red-zone trips into six points. Tennessee leads the entire NFL in red-zone success rate, scoring touchdowns on 72.34 percent of their visits. To put that into perspective, no other team this season is above 70 percent - and no team finished higher than 69.44 percent last season. Even with QB Marcus Mariota out of action, the Titans have a significant advantage here.

Daily fantasy watch: TE Delanie Walker


Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-1.5, 40.5)

Raiders' late D struggles vs. Broncos' second-half stinginess

The Raiders not only find themselves back in the playoff picture for the first time in a while, they have a shot at home-field advantage throughout the AFC postseason if they can defeat the Broncos and the New England Patriots fall in Miami. But the path isn't an easy one for Oakland, which will need to dispatch the defending champions on hostile soil. And if this one is close at the break, the Broncos hold the advantage as far as second-half defense is concerned.

The Raiders are one of the most generous teams in the NFL after halftime, allowing 13.9 second-half points per game; only the
San Francisco 49ers (14.9), Carolina Panthers (14.5) and San Diego Chargers (14.4) have surrendered more. The rate is even worse than the one they posted last season (12.6), and becomes an even bigger factor considering the offensive downgrade the team is facing with the switch from injured QB Derek Carr to backup Matt McGloin.

The Broncos would love nothing more than to put a damper on Oakland's sensational season, and is in great position to do so. Denver allows the fifth-fewest second-half points in the NFL (8.4), and has given up just 18 second-half points combined over its previous three games. Armed with one of the most impressive pass defenses in football, the Broncos will likely make things miserable for McGloin all game long - but especially over the final two quarters.

Daily fantasy fade: WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree


Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (+5.5, 44.5)

Chiefs' elite ball-hawking vs. Chargers' turnover troubles

While Oakland is staring at a top-two seed in the conference with a victory, a loss - combined with a Kansas City victory over San Diego - would drop the Raiders out of top spot in the AFC West. So you can bet the Chiefs will be bringing their best football to Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday afternoon as they tangle with a Chargers team that has long been eliminated from the playoff race. And much to the Raiders' chagrin, Kansas City comes in with a significant edge in the turnover department.

The Chiefs have been among the league leaders in turnover margin since the start of the campaign, and come into Week 17 ranked second in the NFL at a healthy +15. This is nothing new for the Chiefs, who recorded a +14 turnover margin a season ago - the second-highest in the league. Quarterback Alex Smith has been a major reason for that dominance on the offensive side of the ball, having thrown just seven interceptions - his sixth straight season of seven or fewer INTs.

His Sunday afternoon counterpart, Chargers QB Philip Rivers, has been on the other end of the spectrum this season, having thrown a league-high 19 interceptions. It's the fourth time in six seasons that Rivers has tossed 15 or more INTs, and his carelessness with the football has played a significant part in the Chargers ranking 26th in the league in turnover differential at -6. Look for Rivers to get to 20 INTs for the second time in his career Sunday.

Daily fantasy fade: QB Philip Rivers


Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3, 49)

Packers' potent playoff push vs. Lions' late-season lethargy

The NFC North title is on the line Sunday night as the Packers visit the Lions in the final game of the NFL's regular season. The teams are headed in opposite directions heading into this one, with Detroit having dropped two in a row and Green Bay reeling off five consecutive victories since a 4-6 start that nearly torpedoed its playoff chances. The momentum sits squarely in the Packers' favor, creating the kind of mismatch that could vault them to a division title at the expense of the collapsing lions.

Breaking down each team's last three games should make Packers fans feel jubilant. Green Bay has outscored its opponents 106-62 over that stretch, ranking second in points per game (35.3), sixth in red-zone touchdown rate (69.2 percent), second in average team passer rating (120.7) and first by a mile in turnover differential (+12). Simply put, there hasn't been a hotter team since the beginning of December than the Packers.

The Lions, by comparison, have been truly dismal; they rank 27th in points per game (15.7), 23rd in red-zone touchdown rate (53.3 percent), 29th in average team passer rating (66.5) and 28th in turnover differential (-8) over their previous three games. With Detroit sputtering to the finish line and Green Bay unbeatable since Thanksgiving, Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Packers are on the verge of an incredible rags-to-riches finish this weekend.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Aaron Rodgers

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 17 lines that make you go hmmm...

The Bucs opened as low as -3.5 hosting the Panthers and that spread has since jumped an entire field goal to Tampa Bay -6.5 in Week 17.

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm…” in Week 17:

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+6, 44)

This games stands out as the most lopsided line of the week. I hate to say it, but the Bills should not be favored. In fact, if they show up physically (because mentally they won’t be there) I’d be surprised. It would be one thing if Buffalo was potentially saying good-bye to a long, loved coach after decades of great work. But this isn’t the case. Buffalo owes nothing to Rex Ryan and he did nothing for Buffalo. Incentive is not a term they will be using this week.

The Jets will be loose as a goose and ready to play. As the last game, a win against their divisional foe will mean more to them than vice versa. No one is going to be balls-to-the-wall football but with a little backing from the home town crowd, a little push and momentum for a season-ending win, the Jets should prevail straight up or at least lose a close one. Grab the points early, take a shot of whisky, and watch the merciless season for both team end without much fanfare.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 42.5)

Normally, one would think this would be a great date to mark on the calendar to settle in and watch some smash-mouth football. But not here. In fact, we’re not even looking at the side in this one. We’re keying into the total.

With the shock waves felt from Derek Carr’s injury, all playoff-bound teams have been put on notice. Although, we truly feel Philadelphia will win this game out of default, as the Cowboys try to avoid all injuries this weekend - particularly Tony Romo, who has been now deemed an important piece in case of an injury/breakdown to Dak Prescott. Don’t be surprised if you see Mark Sanchez play over Romo.

I don’t envision the Cowboys extending anyone on offense and with the lack of a complete overhaul of personnel, they will still be fielding most of their top defensive players throughout the game. Add in the cold weather and it looks like we’ll be watching two Chuck Knox teams playing run, run, pass, punt all game.

I don’t see six touchdowns scored in this one.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 46.5)

This is one of the Week 17 games that actually counts. Terrible opening line by the offshores at Tampa Bay -3.5 saw the line jump to the current -6.5 level. We still like the Bucs at the higher number and believe this will still go up by kickoff.

Having one of the most disappointing seasons of 2016, Carolina really has nothing to play for. At this point, a win or a loss won’t change the Panthers draft position that much. Cam Newton has been punished this season and we don’t envision him playing that much, if at all. Keep an eye on his status as the week unfolds.

Tampa Bay has faint chances to get into the playoffs but the fact that it’s even there, will have this team playing for its life. That’s what we like to have on our side. Playing in the early games, there will be no time to scoreboard watch early on. The Bucs are just going to have to win and control the things they can and not worry about the things they can’t.

I expect Tampa Bay to put Carolina out of its misery early and coast to a big win. For those of you who got the early numbers, good catch.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 41)

This game counts for nothing. I’m very surprised at the opening move beyond the initial play at +3.5. Taking the hook was a given in some respects but continuing to take the line to 2.5 seems surprising unless, of course, this is the setup to pounce on Denver game day.

Let’s use the early influencing money and grab Denver minus the points now as it will be the only team interested in winning this game. The Raiders will be playing injury-free football and will give up the hard hits at all costs. They will not be exposing Matt McGloin all that much, so be ready to see plenty of hand offs by Conner Cook.

Denver will be incentivized to end the season on an uptick in front of its home crowd and we see nothing to point to an all-out game by Oakland.

 

[CNOTES]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 17 NFL lines are going to move

The Fish have plenty of incentive to win this week, but that hasn't impressed bettors pushing the line to +9.5 in their Week 17 clash with the Pats.

Game to bet now

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+9.5)

The Dolphins are rolling, with nine wins in their last 10 and a berth in the playoffs. Plus, the Fish have incentive to win this week – if things fall right they move up to the 5 seed in the AFC playoffs and would not have to play in Pittsburgh. But that doesn’t impress bettors, who took the opening line (New England -6) and quickly bet it up 3.5-points.

It all has to do with Patriots motivation. New England needs a win at 1 p.m. to lock down the overall No. 1 seed in the AFC and make Oakland’s game (at 4:25 EST) at Denver (Broncos -2.5) moot. Last season, you recall, Bill Belichick took his foot off the accelerator in Week 17 at Miami, lost home-field advantage, then lost in Denver in the AFC title game. Not many see a repeat of that happening.

Game to wait on

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+9.5)

Oddsmakers and bettors both figure that the Seahawks will lay waste to the Niners, especially after Seattle’s puzzling loss to the Cardinals at home last week. Seattle is dealing with injuries everywhere – safety Earl Thomas and wide receiver Tyler Lockett are both done for the season, and now running back Thomas Rawls might not be a go against San Francisco.

Still, this is San Francisco we’re talking about and the 49ers are 1-6 at home ATS this season. Bettors are still pounding Seattle, so there could be some reluctant movement in the line before kickoff.

Total to watch

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (40)

Pardon Bill O’Brien if he has any flashbacks this week. A year ago his Texans got waxed, 30-0, by the Chiefs in the wild card round of the playoffs when QB Brian Hoyer had as bad a game (four interceptions) as anyone thought possible. Twelve months later and O’Brien still has QB issues. Brock Osweiler hasn’t been the answer, so the Texans will roll with backup Tom Savage for the rest of the season.

Savage game-managed Houston past Cincinnati last week and gets another four quarters vs. Marcus Mariotta-less Tennessee this Sunday. The Titans surprisingly stayed in the playoff into Week 16, but will be playing out the string with veteran Matt Cassel under center in what looks like a low-scoring game.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Texans (9-6) @ Titans (8-7)— Battle of backup QB’s; will Houston sit Savage/starters with a playoff game next week? Tennessee’s season unraveled LW with loss to Jaguars and Mariota’s broken leg. Texans (-4.5) beat Titans 27-20 way back in Week 4, running punt back for a TD in game where total yardage was 359-320. Houston is 2-5 on road, winning by 3-5 in its other AFC South road games (Colts/Jags)- they’re 0-1 as road favorites this year but Texans have won four of last five visits here. Underdogs are 6-3-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Under is 4-1 in last five Houston, games, 3-9 in last dozen Titan tilts. Savage won his first NFL start 12-10 over Bengals LW; Cassel is 35-44 as an NFL starter; he started eight games LY, 7 for Dallas, one for Buffalo. Again, Houston has a home playoff game next week.

Bills (7-8) @ Jets (3-12)— Rex Ryan was fired Tuesday; OC Anthony Lynn is interim coach. EJ Manuel is expected to play QB instead of starter Taylor. Tickets for this game were going for $8 on StubHub on Monday; no home field edge for Jets. Buffalo is 3-4 on road, 1-1 as road favorite; they lost three of last four games. Gang Green lost six of last seven games with win in OT over 49ers when they trailed 17-3 at half- they’re 1-6 at home this season. Jets (+1) won first matchup 37-31 in a Week 2 Thursday game in Buffalo- Jets passed for 370 yards, outgained Bills 493-393- they had TD’s of 84-71 yards. Buffalo won its last two visits here; series has been swept in six of last nine years. Over is 12-2 in last 14 Buffalo games, 3-7-1 in Jets’ last 11 games. Favorites are 5-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games.

Ravens (8-7) @ Bengals (5-9-1)— Baltimore’s season ended on goal line in last 0:10 Sunday night in Pittsburgh; Ravens beat Bengals 19-14 (-4) at home in Week 12, leading 16-3 at half, they were outgained 325-311, but Dalton fumbled on Ravens’ 21 with 1:04 left to seal win. Baltimore lost last four visits here, by 6-17-3-8 points; this series ended in sweeps in six of last nine years. Bengals lost five of last seven games, losing in Houston LW when they missed 43-yard FG wide right at gun; Cincy is 3-3 at home, 3-2 as home favorite. Ravens lost their last five road games; they beat Browns/Jaguars on road back in Weeks 2-3- they’re 1-4 as a road underdog. Over is 4-0 in Ravens’ last four games, 1-6 in Bengals’ last seven. Favorites are 8-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season.

Giants (10-5) @ Redskins (8-6-1)— Big Blue is locked into road playoff game next week while Redskins still have shot at making playoffs; why would Manning/starters play here? It would make no sense. Washington (+4.5) won 29-27 in Swamp Stadium in Week 3; they were +2 in turnovers after trailing 21-16 at half. Giants are 7-3 in last 10 visits here; series has been swept in 7 of last 10 years. New Jersey is 2-4 in true road games, beating Dallas/Browns; they’re 1-3-1 as road underdogs. Redskins won four of last five home games, are 3-2 vs spread as home favorites; they’ve trailed at half in five of their last seven games. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Under is 6-1 in last seven Giant games, 1-7 in last eight Washington games.

Packers (9-6) @ Lions (9-6)— Winner takes NFC North; if game ends in a tie, they both get in, with Packers winning division. Green Bay (-7.5) won first meeting 34-27; they led 31-10 at half, but Stafford threw for 368 yards as Lions got back-door cover. Teams split last six visits here, with wins by 12-4-4 points, including Hail Mary in LY’s game. Packers won last five games (4-1 vs spread), are 3-4 on road, losing both their games in domes by total of 4 points. Detroit has short week after getting thumped in Dallas; they lost last two games on road, but won last six home games, with five of six wins by 3 or less points. Lions trailed in 4th quarter in 14 of 15 games this season. Over is 7-2 in Green Bay’s last nine games, 1-8 in Detroit’s last nine. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season.

Jaguars (3-12) @ Colts (7-8)— Indianapolis is 6-1 vs spread in game following a loss this year; they lost three of last four home games, are 3-2 as a home favorite. One of Jags’ three wins this year was 30-27 (-1) over Colts in London back in Week 4; they led 23-6 in 4th quarter, held on for win. Jags lost last three visits to Indy, by 20-20-3 points. Jaguars snapped 9-game skid LW in first game after Bradley was fired; they averaged 8.5 yards/pass attempt, their best game of year. Jaguars are 1-6 in true road games, 4-3 as road underdogs. As bad as Jax has been, they’ve trailed at halftime in only one of last six games. In their last five games, Colts are 31-61 on third down. Over is 4-1 in last five Jaguar games, 0-4 in Colts’ last four home games. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this year.

Cowboys (13-2) @ Eagles (6-9)—Rumors Thursday say Cowboys will rest lot of regulars with nothing to gain here. Short week for Dallas after they pounded Lions Monday nite at home; with bye on deck and then playoffs. Philly snapped five-game skid by beating Giants LW; they’ve had four extra days to prep after playing on Thursday. Eagles are 3-9 in last 12 games after a 3-0 start; they’re 5-2 at home, losing to Packers, Redskins. Dallas won 29-23 in OT in first meeting (-4.5), running ball for 187 yards- they outgained Eagles 460-291 in game they trailed 13-10 at half. Cowboys won last four visits here, by 15-14-11-10 points. Home favorites are 3-4 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Last four Philly games went over total; three of last four Dallas games stayed under. Cowboys are 6-1 on road; they’re 0-2 vs Giants, 13-0 vs everyone else.

Bears (3-12) @ Vikings (7-8)— Minnesota is 2-8 in its last ten games after a 5-0 start; when DB’s ignore the gameplan and go rogue, in same season where OC quit midseason, you know team has serious issues. Bears (+5.5) won first meeting 20-10 at home in Week 8, running ball for 158 yards, outgunning Vikings 403-258. Barkley threw eight INT’s in last two games; Bears are -9 in turnovers last two weeks, -16 for season. Chicago is 2-4 as a road underdog this year; they covered four of last six games overall. Minnesota lost three of last four home games, scoring one TD on 20 drives in last two; they’ve got only two takeaways (-6) in last five games. Under is 5-2 in Viking home games, 3-1 in Chicago’s last four road tilts. Underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in NFC North games this season.

Panthers (6-9) @ Buccaneers (8-7)— This series has been swept the last seven years; Bucs (+6) won first meeting 17-14 in Week 6, thanks to +4 turnover ratio- Carolina outgained them 414-315 but was 1-8 on 3rd down in game Bucs led 6-0 at half. Panthers are 2-5 on road, 2-1 as road underdogs; they’re 2-6 vs spread week after a loss this season. Tampa Bay still has an outside shot at making playoffs (they need win and ton of help), but they lost last two games (-5 TO ratio), allowing 26-31 points- they.won last three home games, allowing total of 26 points. Carolina won last three visits here by 18-6-14 points. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 4-1-1 in Tampa’s last six games, 3-0 in last three Carolina games.

Browns (1-14) @ Steelers (10-5)— Big Ben/Bell/Brown are sitting here to get ready for playoffs next week. Monkey is off Cleveland’s back after they beat Chargers LW; Browns are 2-5 as road underdogs this year; LW was just third time all year they had positive turnover ratio. Not sure if RGIII (concussion) can play here. Pittsburgh won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); they are 4-2 as home favorites- this game means very little to them. Steelers won first meeting 24-9 (-8) at home six weeks ago, scoring defensive TD and sacking Brown QB’s 8 times in game they led 14-0 at half. Pitt is 22-3 in last 25 series games, winning last 12 meetings here. Under is 6-1 in last seven Cleveland games, 11-3 in Steelers’ last 14 games. Favorites are 8-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season.

Saints (7-8) @ Falcons (10-5)— Atlanta gets #2 seed in NFC with win here; they scored 38.7 pts/game in winning last three games with +7 turnover ratio, they’re 2-4 as a home favorite this year. New Orleans scored 79 points in winning last couple games; they’re 9-3 vs spread in last 12 games. NO is 3-4 on road, 4-1 as a road underdog; they scored 24-18 second half points in last two games. Saints won 10 of last 12 visits here; this series has been swept seven of last ten years. Falcons (+3) won first meeting 45-32 in Superdome back in Week 3- Atlanta scored five TD’s on 8 drives and also scored a defensive TD. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 6-4 in Saints’ last ten games, 3-12 in Atlanta games this season.

Patriots (13-2) @ Dolphins (10-5)— New England is playing for top seed in AFC; Miami has a road playoff game next week. This series has split 8 of last 12 years; Patriots lost last three trips to Miami, by 4-13-10 points. NE won its last six games overall, covered its last four; they’re 10-1 with Brady at QB, 5-1 as a road favorite- they beat Miami 31-24 (-6.5) in Week 2 when Garoppolo was NE’s QB. Dolphins won nine of last ten games, covered last three; they’ve won five in row at home since losing here to Tennessee in Week 5. Miami covered five of last six tries as an underdog. Home side/favorites are 5-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Patriot games; last five Miami games went over the total.

Cardinals (6-8-1) @ Rams (4-11)- Carson Palmer returns to his home field from his college days at USC for first time since 2002. Arizona lost four of last six games; they’re 2-5 on road, winning 33-21 at SF, 34-31 LW at Seattle. Arizona is 4-7 as a favorite this year. Rams lost 10 of last 11 games, are 0-6 with Goff at QB; they lost last five home games after winning home opener 9-3 over Seattle. LA was outscored 50-21 in second half of last three games. This series has been swept six of last nine years; Rams won first meeting 17-13 back in Week 4, even though Redbirds outgained them 420-288 (LA was +4 in turnovers). Cardinals went 9-2 in last 11 games vs Rams in St Louis. Divisional home underdogs are 10-4 vs spread in NFC games. Last six Arizona games went over total; under is 6-3 in Rams’ last nine games.

Chiefs (11-4) @ Chargers (5-10)— Will likely be sad day here, Chargers’ last game in Qualcomm before they bolt for LA. Chiefs need win here and Raider loss in Denver to win AFC West. KC won four of last five games; they won last five road games, are 2-0 as road favorites this year. Chargers lost last four games (0-4 vs spread, -6 turnovers); they lost last three home games, by 7-7-3 points. San Diego is 2-5 in last seven games despite being favored in five of the seven games. This series has been swept in six of last eight years; San Diego blew 21-3 halftime lead in season opener, lost 33-27 in OT at Arrowhead. Chiefs won 23-20/33-3 in last two visits here. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC West games this season. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Charger games, 10-4 in last 14 Chief games.

Seahawks (9-5-1) @ 49ers (2-13)— Seattle needs win here and Atlanta loss to get #2 seed in NFC and next week off, but Seahawks have been struggling, going 2-3 in last five games, with losses to Bucs/Cardinals. Seattle is 2-4-1 on road, winning 27-17 at Jets, 31-24 in Foxboro, tying Arizona. 49ers are 2-0 vs Rams, 0-13 vs everyone else; they’re 1-6 at home, 1-5 as a home underdog- they blew 17-3 halftime lead in last home game, an OT loss to Jets. This series was split five of last eight years; Seattle (-9.5) won 37-18 at home in first meeting back in Week 3, averaging 8.6 yds/pass attempt in game they led 24-3 at half. Seattle was outscored 38-16 in first half of last three games. Divisional home underdogs are 10-4 vs spread in NFC games. Over is 9-5 in 49ers’ last 14 games, 3-1 in last four Seattle games.

Raiders (12-3) @ Broncos (8-7)— McGloin (1-5 as NFL starter, with starts in ’13) replaces injured Carr at QB for Oakland, which needs win for AFC West title (if NE also loses, Raiders would get #1 seed in AFC). This series has been swept four of last six years; Oakland (-1) beat Denver 30-20 at home back in Week 9, outgaining Denver by 98 yards- two of their three TDs in game were on drives of less than 60 yards. Denver lost its last three games, is 5-3 as a favorite this year; Broncos turned ball over eight times (-6) in last three games- they were outscored 18-0 in second half of last two games. Raiders lost three of last four visits here, with all three losses by 16+ points. Over is 11-4 in Oakland games, 1-3 in last four Denver games. Home favorites are 5-2 vs spread in AFC West divisional games this season.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 17

Sunday, January 1

Oakland @ Denver

Game 331-332
January 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
131.513
Denver
135.702
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 4
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 1
40
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-1); Over

Seattle @ San Francisco

Game 329-330
January 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
135.000
San Francisco
120.886
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 14
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 9 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-9 1/2); Over

Kansas City @ San Diego

Game 327-328
January 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
133.433
San Diego
133.937
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 6
44
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+6); Over

Arizona @ Los Angeles

Game 325-326
January 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
132.807
Los Angeles
121.668
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 11
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 6
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-6); Over

New England @ Miami

Game 323-324
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
147.637
Miami
131.281
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 16 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-9 1/2); Over

New Orleans @ Atlanta

Game 321-322
January 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
133.025
Atlanta
146.253
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 13
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 6 1/2
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-6 1/2); Under

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

Game 319-320
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
119.493
Pittsburgh
141.898
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 22 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-6); Under

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

Game 317-318
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
133.564
Tampa Bay
135.102
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 5
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+5); Under

Chicago @ Minnesota

Game 315-316
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
126.393
Minnesota
127.499
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 6 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+6 1/2); Over

Dallas @ Philadelphia

Game 313-314
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
132.728
Philadelphia
138.687
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 6
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-3 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Game 311-312
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
134.400
Indianapolis
131.413
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 3
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 5
47
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+5); Under

Green Bay @ Detroit

Game 309-310
January 1, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
133.370
Detroit
135.277
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3 1/2); Over

NY Giants @ Washington

Game 307-308
January 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
128.487
Washington
140.920
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 12 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-7 1/2); Over

Baltimore @ Cincinnati

Game 305-306
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
134.776
Cincinnati
132.483
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 2 1/2
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(+2 1/2); Over

Buffalo @ NY Jets

Game 303-304
January 1, 2017 @

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
124.812
NY Jets
127.040
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+3 1/2); Over

Houston @ Tennessee

Game 301-302
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
132.359
Tennessee
130.452
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 3
40
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+3); Over

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 17
December 30, 2016


It's the calm before the storm in Las Vegas with New Year's Eve only a day away from being uncorked, and the same goes for action coming through the sports books with most bettors focused on the daily college football bowl games and letting NFL Week 17 numbers iron out before making a cash commitment.


The NFL has been put on the back-burner so far during the slow holiday week, which has eased the anxiety of bookmakers across town because Week 17 always presents the most challenges with a constant wave of mis-information regarding who will or won't play. Sharp bettors sit back scouring the information trail as well hoping to get the info first before the books adjust.


Some of the questions for Week 17:


How long will Eli Manning play in a meaningless game for the Giants when the Redskins have everything to play for?


How long will the Dallas starters play?


Will Miami rest all of its regulars?


Does Houston rest its regulars at Tennessee?


What is Oakland quarterback Matt McGloin's true rating differential to David Carr?


And can the Browns win two straight while playing a Steelers squad without their trio of superstars in Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell?


The best way for the sports books to operate smoothly in a risky week with so many uncertainties is to post circles on the board for most games denoting that limited action will be taken. If the regular limit on a side is $20,000, most books will slash it in half to $10,000.


"We've got low limits to almost every game with the exception of the Lions and Packers," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal.


Station Casinos has nine of the 16 NFL games Sunday posted with circles and seven of the games with full limits. Book director Jason McCormick is also seeing great action in the Lions and Packers game as well, but says all other games have been slow. He doesn't expect to see a real push with of NFL volume until Saturday night.


So let's start out with the marquee game receiving the most attention where the Packers have been bet up from -3 to -3,5 at Detroit. The winner of the game wins the NFC North and a home playoff game next week and the loser could have its season end depending on how the Redskins fare against the Giants. It's a huge game, and bettors have shown emphatically who they're taking.


"There is two-and-a-half times more action on the Packers than the Lions, and its all from the fans -- no wise-guys betting either side yet," said Simbal. "Usually in games like this we'll see more slanted action on the favorite laying points while getting more action on the underdog taking plus-money, but the fans have been betting the Packers money-line as well. They're also betting the game over."


It sounds like the final game of the day is going to have the most impact on whether the books win or lose on the day.


"Yeah, it's kind of what I expected," Simbal said. That has been the case on Sunday night in 11 of the 16 prior weeks with the public being more right than wrong.


Even before this week's action piled up on the NFC North championship game, Simbal already had a rooting interest.


"This will be a big swing for us in futures. We do extremely well with the Lions winning the division, and as far as Super Bowl odds go, the Packers liability is our second-highest behind the Raiders."


CG Technology books have the Packers at 9/1 odds to win the Super Bowl with the Lions at 80/1.


The Cowboys are the NFC favorites to win the Super Bowl at 4/1 odds and they have the luxury of home field advantage already sewn up and can give the starters some rest at Philadelphia, where the Eagles are four-point favorites.


"Sharps are on the Eagles," said Simbal, "but the fans are on the Cowboys and they like the money-line even more since word got out that Tony Romo would see some playing time."


Mark Sanchez is also expected to see playing time behind back-up offensive-linemen, which is part of the reason the Eagles opened up as six-point favorites.


Defending NFC champion Carolina clinched a losing season last week and are playing at Tampa Bay where the Buccaneers are still technically alive for postseason play, but need a lot of crazy things to happen in other games.


"The Carolina game has been funny because we opened the Bucs -4 and had a guy immediately laid it, and the market was moving so we passed through -5 and -5.5 and went right to -6," Simbal said. "But then another guy came in and took the +6 for a limit play and also two limit wagers on the Panthers money-line at +195 and +185."


The biggest line move of the week is a meaningless game at Cincinnati.


"The Bengals were -2.5, but we've had a few plays push us to Ravens -1," Simbal said.


Perhaps the craziest looking spread of the week is the Patriots laying -9.5 and -10 at Miami, which is the same spread used in their Week 17 meeting last season when the Dolphins were 5-10.


"This number on the Patriots game is crazy," Simbal said. "Really, the Dolphins have something to play for, right? But no one is touching the game. Wise guys don't any part of it yet, so they're good with the number. I mean, we really have nothing on it; only $1,015 total bet on the game."


That might be a Vegas NFL record for least amount bet on a game through Friday. Really, that's approaching WNBA 'who cares' status. But the game actually means a lot for both teams.


The Patriots can clinch home field throughout the playoffs with a win and the Dolphins can move to the No. 5 wild card seed by winning and getting a Chiefs (-5) loss at San Diego later in the day. If you're Miami, who has its first winning record and playoff berth since 2008, where would you rather travel to next week, Houston or Pittsburgh? Hmm, that's a tough one. Win, and the Dolphins face Tom Savage and possibly get Matt McGloin the week after. Lose, and you get Big Ben. It sounds like enough incentive for Miami to play all-out to win.


Miami has won at home against the Patriots the past three seasons, including a 20-10 win last season when the Patriots 'had to win' to get home field. They lost and had to go to Denver in the playoffs, and well, you know the rest.

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 17
December 31, 2016



NFL CHOICE TRENDS:


-- The Colts are 0-11 OU (-13.05 ppg) since Jan 01, 2006 as a favorite off a game as a road dog where they failed to cover.


-- The Raiders are 10-0-1 OU (12.09 ppg) since Dec 28, 2008 when their ATS margin increased over their past 3 games.


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 11-0 ATS (11.00 ppg) since Oct 30, 2011 off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The 49ers are 0-10-1 ATS (-8.36 ppg) since Nov 18, 2007 as a dog off a game as a dog of more than three points where they forced at least two turnovers.


TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:


-- The Bears are 0-8 ATS (-10.88 ppg) since Dec 06, 2015 when Alshon Jeffery had at least 75 receiving yards last game.


TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:

-- The Colts are 0-7 OU (-11.50 ppg) since Dec 14, 2014 at home when Andrew Luck threw for at least 250 yards last game.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Steelers are 0-11 OU (-7.73 ppg) since Oct 16, 2011 as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they had at least 400 total yards.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Jaguars are 11-0 OU (15.50 ppg) since Nov 15, 2009 off a home game where they threw for at least 250 yards.


NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Chiefs are 0-13 OU as a favorite when they are off a game in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.


NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Titans are 15-0 ATS at home after a game in which their completion percentage was at least 7.5 points high than their season-to-date average, as long as they are not laying more than three points.


NFL ATS SYSTEM:


-- Teams playing their final regular season home game which have won at least six of their first seven home games are 95-74-2 ATS. Active on Miami and Detroit.

 

[CNOTES]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 17
December 30, 2016


If you were brave enough to take the Cleveland Browns on the ML along with my other three plays from last week's article you were able to go 2-2 SU and turn a nice profit. Minnesota (+185) and Indianapolis (+160) saw their playoff dreams get dashed, but Jacksonville (+185) and Cleveland (+230), were able to get us to the window and add about two units to our bankroll.


Week 17 is a whole different animal though as the majority of teams are just out there to cash a paycheck and that makes cashing your own betting tickets a little harder because it's tough to predict which teams will show up to play and which will simply be going through the motions. That being said, there are plenty of teams getting +4 or better on the point spread and some of them will be able to pull off the outright upset. Let's go through the list now.


Sportsbook.ag Underdogs That Qualify


Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5); ML (+177)
Dallas Cowboys (+4.5); ML (+180)
Chicago Bears (+6); ML (+210)
Carolina Panthers (+4.5); ML (+177)
Cleveland Browns (+6); ML (+210)
Miami Dolphins (+9.5); ML (+350)
New York Giants (+8); ML (+260)
New Orleans Saints (+7); ML (+260)
LA Rams (+6.5); ML (+225)
San Diego Chargers (+6); ML (+200)
San Francisco 49ers (+9.5); ML (+350)


A list that long has to be narrowed in a hurry and we can start by avoiding the Cleveland Browns this week as they accomplished their goal of getting a W a week ago. Even with the bulk of Pittsburgh's main weapons sitting out, last week's game vs. San Diego was Cleveland's “Super Bowl” - some of their players even said as such – and I don't believe the Browns care what happens after that.


Dallas is another team that's sitting key guys and is best to be left alone this week. It's been reported that Tony Romo will see some action, but the bulk of it will go to Mark Sanchez. Against an Eagles team that is still hungry to improve and build for next season, leaving that game alone is the better option.


Miami is another team best left off your card as while covering that big number is a possibility, the Patriots are still playing for the #1 seed in the AFC and would get there with a win. Stepping in front of the Patriots and the Tom Brady revenge tour has been detrimental to a bettor's bankroll all year long and this week will likely be no different.


Other bottom feeders like San Francisco and San Diego are up against opponents still playing for improved seeding (Seattle and KC respectively) and believing that those sub-par teams with nothing to play for will all of a sudden rise up and spoil the plans of their division rivals is tough. The Saints are in a similar position in Atlanta to play a Falcons team looking to earn a 1st round bye, but with the offense New Orleans possesses, they can always pull off an upset like this.


With them it comes down to whether or not they decide to show up to compete and that's hard to predict. Given Atlanta's compete level will be high and all the news surrounding Saints HC Sean Payton potentially leaving, I'd lean on the side of the Saints being one of those teams that will go through the motions and not care about the result.


The Carolina Panthers are an intriguing option from the NFC South though as they are in Tampa to take on a Bucs team that needs to win and have a lot of things fall their way to get into the playoffs. The chances of all those things happening for Tampa are slim to none, and we've already seen Carolina relish their role of spoiler a few weeks back when they knocked off the Redskins on MNF. Since the Panthers already lost the first meeting with Tampa this year (17-14), I would not be surprised to see Cam Newton and company step up once again and get the W.


Speaking of those Redskins, they host the Giants in a game Washington must have to have a shot at getting in. New York already has nothing to worry about as they are locked into a wildcard spot and have the goal of staying healthy this week. HC Ben McAdoo has already said his starters will see the field, but it likely won't be long, taking the Giants out of the running for a ML wager this week. That leaves the three teams (LA, Chicago, Jacksonville) on this list that are up against other opponents playing for nothing.


The Rams have already beaten Arizona once this season and after the fight the Cardinals put up last week in Seattle, it appears as though they are a team not going out there to just collect a paycheck. Same season revenge is on Arizona's side as well, and for as disappointing as this year has been for the Cardinals, I've got a tough time seeing them lose twice to a very bad Rams team.


Jacksonville and Chicago are up against the two teams that cost us wagers a week ago (Indy and Minnesota), and along with Carolina are probably the best bets in terms of the outright upset. Oddly enough, both Jacksonville and Chicago will be going for season sweeps of their respective opponents and while the revenge angle does them no favors in this spot, the deflating feeling the Colts and Vikings must have this week after being eliminated so late in the year should carry over onto the field.


Finishing 8-8 SU or 7-9 SU is of little consequence to those organizations that had Super Bowl aspirations this season, while the Jags and Bears would love to finish off with road victories to get to four wins on the campaign.


Week 17 betting is tough, but look for Carolina (+177), Jacksonville (+177), and Chicago (+210) to be some of the teams in the mix for the outright upset this week.

 

[CNOTES]

Playoff-bound Dallas to sit four starters
December 30, 2016


FRISCO, Texas (AP) The Dallas Cowboys will rest at least four starters and a pair of key backups in the regular-season finale against Philadelphia with home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs already clinched.


Pro Bowl tackle Tyron Smith was the lone offensive starter declared out Friday by the Cowboys (13-2) for Sunday's game at the Eagles (6-9). Smith injured his right knee in last week's 42-21 win over Detroit, but coach Jason Garrett has said the injury isn't considered serious. Smith also has battled back issues.


The defensive starters sitting for the NFC East champs will be ends Tyrone Crawford (shoulder and hamstring issues) and DeMarcus Lawrence (back) and interior lineman Terrell McClain (ankle). Linebacker Justin Durant (elbow) and defensive tackle Cedric Thornton (ankle) also will be out.


The Cowboys already have all seven inactive spots filled for the Philadelphia game because Cornerback Morris Claiborne will miss his ninth straight game with a groin injury. He hopes to be ready for the divisional playoff Jan. 14 or 15.

 

[CNOTES]

Jets RB Forte out for season finale
December 30, 2016


FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) Matt Forte's first season with the New York Jets is officially over.


The veteran running back was placed on injured reserve Friday a few hours after being ruled out for the finale against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday with a knee injury. Forte had been playing with a torn meniscus in his right knee, but sat out last week at New England because of the knee and a sore shoulder.


Forte finishes with a team-leading - but a career-low - 813 yards rushing and seven touchdowns, along with 30 receptions for 263 yards and a score.


Cornerback Bryson Keeton was signed from the practice squad to take Forte's spot on the active roster. Keeton has been on the Jets' practice squad all season after being among the team's final preseason cuts. He was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Montana State.


Linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin (ankle), defensive tackle Steve McLendon (hamstring) and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins (hamstring) have also been ruled out Friday.


Cornerback Nick Marshall (hamstring) is doubtful.


Seven players are questionable: wide receiver Robby Anderson (hamstring), cornerback Juston Burris (knee), wide receiver Brandon Marshall (hip, shoulder), running back Bilal Powell (knee), defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson (back), running back Brandon Wilds (hamstring) and defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle, knee).

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Romo expected to play Sunday
December 30, 2016


Quarterback Tony Romo, who missed the entire season after suffering a back injury in the preseason and then was demoted in favor of rookie sensation Dak Prescott, is expected to play in Sunday's game against the Philadelphia Eagles.


Prescott will start and Romo and Mark Sanchez are expected to play but it has not been determined how long they will do so, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.


The rotation appears to be a change in plans for the Cowboys, who previously indicated they would not risk an injury to Romo in a meaningless Week 17 game on the road to end the regular season.


The Cowboys, who previously wrapped up the NFC East title and the top seed for the NFC playoffs, are expected to limit Prescott's playing time. Coach Jason Garrett would not confirm whether Romo would play or not Sunday. Garrett said the coaches will meet later Friday and finalize the plans Saturday night and Sunday morning in Philadelphia.


--Indianapolis Colts outside linebacker Robert Mathis announced he will retire after Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, ending 14 years with the organization.


The 35-year-old Mathis spent his entire career with the Colts after being selected in the fifth round out of Alabama A&M in 2003. He has 122 career sacks -- tied for 18th place all-time in the NFL.


"I want to walk away, not limp away. The rest of my body goes to my kids," Mathis told reporters Friday. "Put a cap on a blessed career."


The 6-foot-2, 245-pound Mathis has been in 191 career games (120 starts) and totaled 601 tackles, 18 passes defensed, 51 forced fumbles, 16 fumble recoveries (three returned for touchdowns), one interception and 15 special teams stops. He was in 18 postseason contests (11 starts) and tallied 48 tackles, 6.5 sacks, two passes defensed, five forced fumbles and one fumble recovery. He has four sacks in 13 games this season.


--The NFL decided not to reinstate Oakland Raiders linebacker Aldon Smith from his yearlong suspension, the league announced.


Smith, 27, applied for reinstatement following a one-year suspension for multiple violations of the NFL's substance-abuse policy. He has been suspended for the last 22 games, and Sunday's regular-season finale against the Denver Broncos will be his 23rd.


Smith's suspension was due to end Nov. 17 and he applied for reinstatement Oct. 3. His case will not be revisited by the league until March 15.


The 6-foot-4, 265-pound embattled pass rusher met with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell on Dec. 9 in an effort to state his case for reinstatement from suspension.


--The Seattle Seahawks and Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Bennett agreed to a three-year contract extension.


The deal will kick in for the 2018 season and keep Bennett under contract through the 2020 campaign, Jason LaCanfora of CBS Sports reported.


The new deal is worth $31.5 million, with $17.5 million in guarantees, a source told NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.


Bennett, 31, already was signed through 2017 and was set to become a free agent in 2018.


--The Minnesota Vikings, no longer in playoff contention, ruled out running back Adrian Peterson for Sunday's season finale against the Chicago Bears.


The 31-year-old Peterson has been slowed with knee and groin injuries for the second straight week after he returned from a torn meniscus in Week 15 against the Indianapolis Colts on Dec. 18. The 2012 NFL MVP has not practiced since the Colts game, and will finish the season with 37 carries for 72 yards and no touchdowns in three games.


Peterson suffered a torn meniscus against the Green Bay Packers in Week 2 on Sept. 18. He underwent surgery four days later.


The Vikings, who have an option on Peterson for the 2017 that includes a $6 million roster bonus on the third day of the league year, likely will request a restructured contract for next season.


--Detroit Lions running back Theo Riddick has been ruled out of Sunday night's NFC North Division showdown with the Green Bay Packers due to a wrist injury.


It will be the fourth consecutive game that Riddick misses. He leads the team with a modest 357 rushing yards.


Zach Zenner, who rushed for a career-best 67 yards last week against the Dallas Cowboys, will handle most of the ball-carrying duties.


Center Travis Swanson (concussion) is listed as doubtful and appears likely to miss his fourth straight game.


--San Diego Chargers running back Melvin Gordon will miss his third consecutive game due to leg and hip injuries.


The decision to hold Gordon out of Sunday's game against the Kansas City Chiefs will leave Gordon three yards shy of his first 1,000-yard rushing season.


Gordon suffered his injuries during a loss to the Carolina Panthers on Dec. 11. He rushed for 10 touchdowns in a strong second season after being a huge disappointment as a rookie.


Gordon lobbied lard to play against the Chiefs but coach Mike McCoy and general manager Tom Telesco told him on Friday that he would be withheld from the contest.


--The New York Jets placed running back Matt Forte on injured reserve after he was ruled out of Sunday's game with the Buffalo Bills due to a knee injury.


Forte has been playing with a torn meniscus in his right knee as well as a sore shoulder.


The 31-year-old rushed for a career-low 813 yards this season. It was his second straight season below 1,000 yards after he reached the milestone in five of his first seven NFL seasons as a member of the Chicago Bears.


Forte has two seasons remaining on a three-year contract and stated he plans to play at least one more season.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 1

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


DAL at PHI 01:00 PM


DAL +5.5 **********


O 42.5


BAL at CIN 01:00 PM


CIN +1.0 *****


U 41.5


BUF at NYJ 01:00 PM


BUF -3.5 *****


U 42.5


CLE at PIT 01:00 PM


CLE +6.0


U 42.5


CHI at MIN 01:00 PM

MIN -6.5 *****


U 43.0


JAC at IND 01:00 PM


IND -4.5


O 47.0


HOU at TEN 01:00 PM


TEN -3.0 *****


U 40.5 *****


CAR at TB 01:00 PM


CAR +4.0 *****


O 46.0


NE at MIA 01:00 PM


MIA +9.5 *****


O 44.5 *****


ARI at LA 04:25 PM


ARI -6.5 *****


U 40.5


KC at SD 04:25 PM


KC -4.5


O 44.5


NO at ATL 04:25 PM


NO +7.0 *****


U 56.5 **********


OAK at DEN 04:25 PM


OAK +1.5 *****


O 40.5


SEA at SF 04:25 PM


SEA -9.0


O 42.5 *****


NYG at WAS 04:25 PM


WAS -7.5


U 44.5


GB at DET 08:30 PM


DET +3.0 **********


O 49.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 17
December 31, 2016


The scoreboard operators put in some work during the holiday weekend as 25 of 32 teams put up 20-plus points and the New York Jets were the only team not to score a touchdown. That offensive effort helped the ‘over’ post an eye-opening 12-3-1 record in Week 15 and that was the best result for the high side this season. Through 16 weeks, the ‘over’ has gone 124-111-2 this season.

Handicapping Week 17


The last week of the regular season is often the most difficult to handicap for both sides and totals. With that being said, I’d urge you to tread lightly on the meaningless matchups.

WEEK 17 TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)
Year Over/Under
2015 5-11
2014 6-10
2013 6-10
2012 8-8
2011 9-7


I dug up the numbers from the last five seasons and looking above, you can see that the ‘under’ has produced better overall numbers in Week 17 and that includes an 11-5 mark last season.


Based on playoff implications, there are nine meaningless matchups in Week 17 and I’m including the Tampa Bay-Carolina matchup because the Buccaneers can only earn a spot if they win, the Redskins and Giants end in a tie and a quartet of other teams need to win too.


Houston at Tennessee: The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the past 10 in this series.


Buffalo at N.Y. Jets: Five of the last six played in New York have gone to the high side, with the Jets averaging 30.6 PPG at home during this span.


Baltimore at Cincinnati: The Ravens have seen the ‘over’ connect in their last four but the Cincy defense (16.6 PPG) has helped the team close with a 6-1 ‘under’ run over its last seven.


Jacksonville at Indianapolis: High total (47) and Colts have put up some serious offensive numbers (30.7 PPG) off a loss this season but the last five played in Indy between the pair have all gone ‘under.’


Dallas at Philadelphia: The Eagles have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their last two at Lincoln Financial Field before the first five went ‘under.’


Chicago at Minnesota: The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the pair and Minnesota has watched the ‘under’ go 15-9 at home since Mike Zimmer took over in 2014.


Carolina at Tampa Bay: The Panthers and Bucs have posted identical total records (7-7-1) this season. The ‘over’ is 2-1 in the last three played at Raymond James Stadium between the pair, with Carolina averaging 29.3 points per game.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The ‘under’ is 5-0 in the last five games Pittsburgh lined up without Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. Browns have seen the ‘under’ go 6-1 in the second-half.


Arizona at Los Angeles: The Cardinals have seen the ‘over’ go 7-0 on the road this season.

Meaningful Matchups

Hopefully you’ll be able to survive the first wave of action on Sunday and still be alive for the meaningful matchups in Week 17.

New England at Miami: This game kicks at 1:00 p.m. ET and something has to give here with New England 6-1 to the ‘under’ on the road and Miami 6-1 to the ‘over’ at home. As I wrote about last week, the Dolphins offense is all about big plays but they’ll be facing the top scoring defense in New England, who is allowing 15.7 PPG. The first meeting between the pair at Foxboro went ‘over’ but three of the last four encounters in South Florida have stayed ‘under’ the number.


N.Y. Giants at Washington: This is another ‘over’ vs. ‘under’ matchup with Washington leaning to the high side (12-3) while the Giants have been the best ‘under’ (11-4) wager in the league. Washington beat New York 29-27 on the road in Week 3 and the ‘over’ (47) connected but the number for the rematch is 45. Knowing Washington needs a win to stay alive for a playoff spot, the tempo of the game will be determined by the score. Despite being in the playoffs, the Giants announced that their regulars are going to start.

Green Bay at Detroit: (See Below)


New Orleans at Atlanta: This total (56 ½) is the highest number we’ve seen all season and even though it’s inflated, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under.’ Atlanta owns the best ‘over’ record (12-2-1) and that includes a 7-0 mark at the Georgia Dome. New Orleans enters this game off 48 and 31-point performances from its offense nd the Falcons defense (24.9 PPG) doesn’t have the horses to slow them down. This series was on a good ‘under’ run (5-1-1) but the pair squashed that trend in late September when Atlanta defeated New Orleans 45-32 in a Week 4 matchup on Monday Night Football. I expect both teams to get at least five scores and barring a ton of field goals, the high side will be threatened.


Kansas City at San Diego: The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the pair and the one ‘over’ occurred this season when the Chiefs rallied past the Chargers for a 33-27 overtime victory in Week 1. San Diego led 21-3 at halftime before collapsing in the second-half, which burnt ‘under’ bettors. The Chiefs remain a solid ‘under’ bet (10-5) behind their defense (18.9 PPG) and that unit will be facing a San Diego offense that’s run out of gas the last three weeks (16.3 PPG) and that’s resulted in three ‘under’ tickets.


Seattle at San Francisco: This total opened as high as 44 ½ and is as low as 42 as of Saturday afternoon. The Seahawks defense was embarrassed at home last week (34-31) against the Cardinals and most would expect a big rebound. Seattle blasted San Francisco 37-18 in Week 3 at home and the 49ers defense is ranked last in total defense (408 yards per game) and scoring (30.3 PPG). Before you back Seattle and the ‘over’ on Sunday make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in the last four meetings between the pair in San Francisco and the average combined score is just 25 PPPG.


Oakland at Denver: There will be plenty of backup quarterbacks on the field for this one as Oakland starts Matt McGloin for the injured Derek Carr. He hasn’t started a game since 2003 but in six career appearances, he’s helped his club average 23.6 PPG. Denver announced that it’s going with two quarterbacks in the finale and that’s never a good thing, especially for an offense averaging 10.8 PPG over its last four games.

Under the Lights


Even though bookmakers haven’t been pleased with this year’s NFL betting results as a whole, I’m guessing they’re relieved that the ‘under’ went 27-23-1 in the primetime games. As we head into Week 17’s matchup, the guys behind the betting counter will be cheering for another ticket to the low side.


Oddsmakers sent out a total of 46 ½ between the Packers and Lions last Sunday and that number has jumped up to 49 ½ six days later.


The Green Bay-Over combination is receiving an enormous amount of support and the books are hoping the Lions can pull off the upset in an ugly game. The Packers have covered and gone ‘over’ in five of their first 15 games this season and that includes their 34-27 win over Detroit on Sept. 25 as 6 ½-point home favorites.


The Packers have gone 5-2 to the ‘over’ on the road this season and their defense (28.9 PPG) has helped the cause. Make a note that Green Bay has played in five night games this season and it’s seen the ‘under’ go 4-1.


Prior to last Monday’s 42-21 blowout loss at Dallas, the Lions had seen the ‘under’ cash in eight straight games and the defense held seven of those opponents under 20 points. Detroit’s secondary could be missing two starters including corner back Darius Slay (hamstring).


The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and that includes last year’s 27-23 win by Green Bay over Detroit at Ford Field that ended with the infamous Hail Mary touchdown from the Pack.


For bettors that lean on historical angles, listed below are the Week 17 SNF matchups dating back to 2008.


2015 - Minnesota 20 at Green Bay 13 (Under 44)
2014 – Pittsburgh 27 vs. Cincinnati 17 (Under 49)
2013 – Philadelphia 24 at Dallas 22 (Under 54 ½)
2012 – Washington 28 vs. Dallas 18 (Under 48)
2011 – N.Y. Giants 31 vs. Dallas 14 (Under 48)
2010 – Seattle 16 vs. St. Louis 6 (Under 42 ½)
2009 – N.Y. Jets 37 vs. Cincinnati 0 (Over 33 ½)
2008 – San Diego 52 vs. Denver 21 (Over 50)


The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight SNF finales and six of the last eight games that have been flexed to the Sunday Night spot have been decided by double digits.


Only two road teams managed to win this game during this span. The Vikings stopped the Packers last season and the Eagles barely defeated the Tony Romo-less Cowboys in 2013.


Coincidentally, both Minnesota and Philadelphia earned home playoff games with those wins and they both lost in the postseason by a combined three points to Seattle (10-9) and New Orleans (26-24) respectively.


Fearless Predictions


We turned a solid profit ($190) last week and even though the bankroll sits slightly in the red ($300) through 16 weeks, I’m feeling good headed into the finale. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year to you and yours!


Best Over: Oakland-Denver 40 ½


Best Under: Seattle-San Francisco 43


Best Team Total: Over Detroit 23 ½


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 47 New Orleans-Atlanta
Over 31 ½ Oakland-Denver
Over 35 ½ New England-Miami

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 17
December 31, 2016


Week 16 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS


Overall Record: 45-47 SU, 42-50-2 ATS


Panthers at Buccaneers (-4 ½, 46) – 1:00 PM EST


Carolina
Record: 6-9 SU, 5-9-1 ATS


The Panthers finished last season without a home loss in 10 tries, but suffered their fourth home defeat last week in a 33-16 setback to the Falcons. Carolina stumbled to a 2-5 record away from Bank of America Stadium as only one of those victories came in the underdog role at Washington in Week 15. The Panthers look to avenge a 17-14 home defeat to the Buccaneers back in Week 5 as Cam Newton missed that loss due to injury. Carolina has won straight visits to Raymond James Stadium, while holding Tampa Bay to 17 points or less in each victory.


Tampa Bay
Record: 8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS


Two weeks ago, the Buccaneers were right in the mix of the NFC playoff picture, but back-to-back road losses at New Orleans and Dallas have put Tampa Bay on the brink of elimination. The Bucs need to win on Sunday plus have a multitude scenarios work in their favor, as Tampa Bay has covered in six of its past seven games. After starting the season at 0-4 at Raymond James Stadium, the Bucs are riding a three-game home winning streak, while allowing a total of 26 points in those victories.


Best Bet: Carolina +4 ½


Patriots (-9 ½, 45) at Dolphins – 1:00 PM EST


New England
Record: 13-2 SU, 12-3 ATS


The Patriots control their own destiny for home-field advantage in the AFC playoff by picking up a victory over the Dolphins. If New England loses, the Patriots need the Raiders to lose at Denver to still capture the top AFC seed. The Pats picked up their sixth consecutive win in last Saturday’s 41-3 rout of the Jets as 17-point favorites. New England has cashed in five of six opportunities in the road favorite role this season, but the Patriots have lost three straight visits to Hard Rock Stadium, including a 20-10 defeat in last season’s Week 17 contest.


Miami
Record: 10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS


The Dolphins held off the Bills in overtime last Saturday, 34-31 to wrap up their first playoff appearance since 2008. Miami won in spite of allowing 589 yards to Buffalo, but the Dolphins picked up its first sweep of Buffalo and New York in the same season since 2003. Matt Moore will start once again in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill at quarterback as the Dolphins have scored 34 points in each of his first two appearances. Miami is currently on an 8-1 run to the OVER, including four straight OVERS at Hard Rock Stadium.


Best Bet: Miami +9 ½


Saints at Falcons (-8, 56 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


New Orleans
Record: 7-8 SU, 10-5 ATS


The Saints have been the best underdog in the NFL this season by compiling a 7-1 ATS mark when receiving points. New Orleans is riding a two-game winning streak following a 31-24 home victory over Tampa Bay last Saturday as three-point favorites. The Saints have scored 79 points the past two weeks, while putting up at least 31 points in six of seven wins this season. New Orleans posted 32 points in its last meeting with Atlanta at the Superdome in Week 3, but the Saints fell to the Falcons, 45-32.


Atlanta
Record: 10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS


The Falcons picked up their third straight win to wrap up the NFC South title in last week’s 33-16 blowout of the Panthers as three-point favorites. Atlanta owns a 2-4 ATS mark in the home favorite role this season, while sailing OVER the total in all seven games at the Georgia Dome. The favorite has struggled in this series recently by going 0-6 ATS since 2013, as the last three meetings in Atlanta have been decided by four points or less.

Best Bet: New Orleans +8


Giants at Redskins (-7 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


New York
Record: 10-5 SU, 8-6-1 ATS


The Giants have wrapped up a playoff spot and are looking to get through Week 17 without any injuries. New York fell behind early at Philadelphia and came up short in a 24-19 setback last Thursday night to lose its second consecutive road contest. The Giants are playing with revenge after blowing an early 14-3 lead in a 29-27 home defeat to the Redskins in Week 3 as 3 ½-point favorites. New York owns a 1-3-1 ATS mark as a road underdog this season, while going 6-1 to the UNDER away from Met Life Stadium.


Washington
Record: 8-6-1 SU, 10-5 ATS


The Redskins control their own destiny for the final playoff berth in the NFC by picking up a victory on Sunday. Washington helped itself with a 41-21 rout of Chicago last Saturday as three-point road favorites, while intercepting Matt Barkley five times. The Redskins moved to 7-1 to the OVER in their past eight games, while owning a 6-1 OVER mark in six contests at FedEx Field. Washington has won and covered six of its last eight December contests, as the Redskins go for their first home favorite win over the Giants since 2005.


Best Bet: Washington -7 ½


Chiefs (-4 ½, 44 ½) at Chargers – 4:25 PM EST


Kansas City
Record: 11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS


The Chiefs have an excellent opportunity to capture their first AFC West title since 2010 with a win at San Diego plus an Oakland loss. Kansas City rebounded from a last-second loss to Tennessee by pounding Denver last Sunday night, 33-10 as 3 ½-point favorites. The Chiefs are seeking a perfect 6-0 record inside the AFC West as Kansas City erased a 24-3 deficit to San Diego in a 33-27 overtime triumph back in Week 1 at Arrowhead Stadium.


San Diego
Record: 5-10 SU, 7-8 ATS


The Lightning Bolts are losing their charge late in the season by dropping four consecutive games, including a humiliating 20-17 setback to the previously winless Browns. San Diego hasn’t scored more than 21 points in any of its past four losses, while dropping three consecutive games at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chargers are 1-1 SU/ATS as a home underdog this season, as San Diego goes for its second division win in its past 14 tries.


Best Bet: San Diego +4 ½


Raiders at Broncos (-1 ½, 40 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Oakland
Record: 12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS


The Raiders took a major hit in last Saturday’s 33-25 home victory over the Colts as quarterback Derek Carr suffered a broken fibula and will be out for the rest of the season. Matt McGloin takes over for Carr as the former Penn State standout will make his first NFL start since 2013. Oakland has fared well on the road by compiling a 6-1 SU/ATS mark away from the Black Hole, as the Raiders go for the sweep of the Broncos following a 30-20 home triumph back in November.


Denver
Record: 8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS


The defending champion Broncos won’t return to the postseason as Denver has stumbled down the stretch by losing three straight games. The offense has been non-existent by scoring a total of 23 points, while getting outgained in last week’s loss at Kansas City, 484-246. The Broncos will shake things up the season finale as both Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch will see time under center as Denver tries to avoid losing four home games in a season for the first time since 2011.


Best Bet: Oakland +1 ½