Cnotes 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

NFL


Monday, October 31


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Monday Night Football betting preview: Vikings at Bears
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The Bears' offense is averaging a league-low 15.9 points per game and ranks 25th in the NFL in rush with an average of 87.9 yards.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+4, 40.5)


Their perfect record now a thing of the past, the Minnesota Vikings look to get back on track when they visit the Chicago Bears on Monday night in a matchup of NFC North rivals. The Vikings opened the season with five consecutive wins prior to their bye week but absorbed their first loss in a 21-10 defeat at Philadelphia last week.


Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer would not blame the bye week for stemming his team's momentum, instead pointing to a sea of mistakes that included four turnovers, six quarterback sacks and a kickoff return for a touchdown allowed. "So if you're going to do those things, you have no chance to win," Zimmer said. Chicago, which has dropped three in a row and six of seven, has a burgeoning soap opera building. Jay Cutler, who suffered a thumb injury in Week 2, is poised to return to the starting lineup amid a published report that Bears coach John Fox told friends that he is "done" with the veteran quarterback after this season.


TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.


WEATHER REPORT: Conditions will be cloudy with temperatures in the mid-50's and a zero percent chance of precipitation. There will also be a 10 mph cross-wind blowing off the water.


LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened the week as five-point road favorites. The spread got as high as 5.5 before beginning it's downward tumble in the Bears' direction - ultimately settling in at 4 as of Sunday evening. The total opened at 41 an came down a 1/2 point to 40.5. View complete line history here.


INJURIES:


Vikings - WR C. Patterson (questionable), CB M. Sherels (questionable), TE M. Pruitt (questionable), WR J. Wright (questionable), WR L. Treadwell (questionable), RB J. McKinnon (out), DT S. Floyd (out), RB A. Peterson (out), QB T. Bridgewater (out).


Bears - QB J. Cutler (probable), G J. Sitton (questionable), WR C. Meredith (questionable), LB D. Trevathan (questionable), LB P. McPhee (questionable), RB J. Langford (questionable), CB T. Porter (questionable), WR E. Royal (doubful), G K. Long (doubtful), WR M. Wilson (questionable), QB B. Hoyer (out), WR K. White (out), CB K. Fuller (out), LB L. Houston (out), LB L. Barrow (out).

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS, 2-4 O/U): Injuries to top running back Adrian Peterson and along the offensive line are stagnating Minnesota, which ranks 31st in total offense (299.2 yards) and 30th in rushing (74.3). Quarterback Sam Bradford had six touchdowns and zero interceptions in his first four starts but was picked off once and lost a pair of fumbles last week against his former team. One of his new favorite targets, wideout Cordarrelle Patterson, has 16 receptions and two touchdowns over the last three games but missed practice Thursday with a concussion. Still, the Vikings rely on a defense that is limiting foes to an NFL-low 14.0 points.


ABOUT THE BEARS (1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS, 3-4 O/U): Backup quarterback Brian Hoyer suffered a broken arm and third-stringer Matt Barkley appeared totally overmatched in last week's 26-10 loss at Green Bay. While Fox denied the report by the Chicago Tribune, insisting there's "absolutely no truth" to it, Cutler acknowledged: "He doesn't have a choice, I guess, at this point." The most pressing issue facing Fox and Cutler is how to jump-start an offense that is averaging a league-low 15.9 points per game and ranks 25th in the NFL in rush with an average of 87.9 yards. Chicago's defense sits 20th in the league, permitting an average of 24.1 points per game.


TRENDS:


* Vikings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
* Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.
* Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Vikings last 16 road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 vs. NFC North.


CONSENSUS: The road favorite Vikings are picking up a big 79 percent of the point spread betting action. Under is grabbing 57 percent of the totals wagers.

 

[CNOTES]

Pats, 'Boys hurt Books
October 31, 2016


For the fourth consecutive week the Las Vegas sports books found themselves at the mercy of the Patriots and losing big to the game which set up a do or die Sunday night game where in most cases they needed the Eagles to win outright at Dallas to save the day.


In both cases the bettors came out as the winners and when throwing in Oakland's 30-24 overtime win at Tampa Bay, it was a rough three-team parlay paying 6/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $600) the books couldn't recover from.


Prior to the Sunday night kickoff, CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said they were "break-even on the day" but that any combination was a "six-figure loss except for a straight-up Eagles win."


The only late positive for Simbal's seven books was the Cubs winning Game 5 of the World Series, 3-2, over the Indians to force a Game 6 Tuesday night. But it didn't erase the big Cowboys win, who were five-point favorites and won 29-23 in overtime after trailing 23-13 in the fourth-quarter.


It was almost the same story for Jay Rood's 10 MGM Resorts sports books across the strip.


"We're up small right now," Rood said before the Cowboys game, "If Dallas comes through with a cover, we'll a lose a litte on the day."


The favorites ended up going 7-4 against-the spread with only two underdogs winning outright. The 'over' went 8-3 on the day, with two of them aided by the three overtime games.


The big game that got the bettors' party started Sunday was the Patriots 41-25 win at Buffalo as six-point favorites. It was the root game to almost everyone's parlay and teaser. The Bills beat the Patriots, 16-0, in Week 4, without Tom Brady playing, but since Brady has come back from his season opening four-game suspension he's covered all four starts and the Patriots are now 7-1 ATS.


So what are the books going to do to moving forward to neutralize the Patriots who they're already increasing well over the true point spread?


"The Patriots have a bye this week, so maybe that will slow some of the momentum," said Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "They keep covering the number and bettors love that, and I can see why they load up them every week. They're the best team in football."


In Week 10, the Patriots get a visit from the Seahawks, but despite the quality of the opponent, you can expect the Patriots number to be inflated.


"We'll make more adjustments on them," said Kornegay. "We're used to runs like this with the popular teams bettors like and what we have to do to counter that popularity."


That adjustment is likely to be an even higher luxury tax placed on the point-spread. Instead of Patriots -5 for that game, you may see Patriots -7.


CG Technology opened spreads on every game in April and the Patriots were only -2 at the time.


Yes, the Patriots are very good. But so are the Raiders late in games. Are you kidding me with David Carr. Between his situational running and calm nature nature late in games, he reminds me of John Elway. Can't wait till they make Las Vegas home.


And how about Dak Prescott, who struggled for the first three quarters, but came up huge when it counted. Prescott will start next week at Cleveland and then who knows after that. Tony Romo is waiting to take over his team, but it just seems like a bad move momentum-wise after six straight wins and, most of all for bettors, six straight covers.

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, OCTOBER 31


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


MIN at CHI 08:30 PM


CHI +4.0 *****


U 39.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

With Bradford knocked around again, can Vikes be for real?
November 1, 2016


CHICAGO (AP) Quarterback Sam Bradford probably wishes now he'd bought travel insurance for the journey that brought him to Minnesota just in time for the season opener.


What seemed like a steal for most of the last two months as the Vikings cruised to a 5-0 start increasingly feels like a bad trip.


The Chicago Bears exploited the same weaknesses in a 20-10 victory Monday night the Eagles had a week ago, plowing through a slapped-together offensive line and sacking Bradford five times. After stuffing the Vikings punch-less running attack time and again in the first half, Bears defenders keyed on Bradford and forced him into hurried throws an additional nine times.


''Obviously, the last two weeks haven't gone our way,'' Bradford said. ''It's not the same team that came out and started 5-0, but we've got that same team in the locker room. ... We just have to figure the way we did it, what the formula was those first five weeks and do it.''


After being sacked six times in Philadelphia, Bradford wound up 23 of 37 for 228 yards and a touchdown that pulled Minnesota within 10 points with little more than five minutes remaining. But coach Mike Zimmer conceded afterward the Bears were better in nearly every phase of the game.


''Sometimes, you get beat. They played better than we did,'' Zimmer said in one of his longer answers. ''Simple as that.''


Unlike last week, when the coach criticized his offensive line for playing ''soft'' in an ''embarrassing loss,'' Zimmer avoided calling out any unit. He spent most of his five minutes at the podium tightly gripping the side of the lectern and at one point almost looked to be in pain, pinching the bridge of his nose with his thumb and forefinger.


Asked directly whether he was ''hopeful'' he could shore up the offensive line, Zimmer said, ''It's difficult right now. We haven't proven it yet.


''So I don't know if `hopeful' is the right word,'' he added. ''We got to get it fixed, though.''


The troubles up front limited Minnesota's ground game to just 57 yards on 18 attempts. Matt Asiata had 30 yards on 11 carries, and like the offensive line, assistance isn't likely to arrive anytime soon. Running back Adrian Peterson, who suffered a knee injury against the Packers in Week 2, is eligible to return in late November but could be out longer.


Even the Vikings defense, rated No. 1 overall in the NFL, was no help.


That unit was expected to keep Minnesota comfortably in the running for the wide-open NFC North. But Bears quarterback Jay Cutler, returning from a right thumb injury that shelved him late in Week 2, had plenty of time to roll up 252 yards and a touchdown on 20-of-31 passing.


''I thought he played well. He threw the ball well,'' was about all Zimmer would say.


Where the Vikings turn for immediate help is anyone's guess.


General manager Rick Spielman surrendered a first- and conditional fourth-round pick to get Bradford from Philadelphia after starting QB Teddy Bridgewater was injured. During the bye week, the Vikings coaxed veteran tackle Jake Long out of semi-retirement to shore up the offensive line, but that experiment seems doomed.


Long was responsible for two of the Eagles' six sacks a week earlier - both led to strips - and Chicago's rookie edge rusher Leonard Floyd blew by him for the Bears' first sack.


''We got to keep Sam upright,'' Long said. ''When he has a clean pocket he does great things. We just can't let him get hit like that.''

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s six-pack


Six of the more interesting football games this weekend:


— Colorado (-12) over UCLA Thursday. Buffs have come a long way to be a double digit favorite in a league game.


— Eagles scored five TDs during recent 1-3 stretch; interesting game with the Giants, who are coming off a bye.


— Pitt-Miami— Hurricanes are on a 4-game losing streak.


— Steelers-Ravens— Will Big Ben play for Pittsburgh?


— Alabama-LSU— Tide won last four series games by average score of 29-16.


—First place in AFC West is at stake in Denver-Oakland game Sunday night in the Coliseum.




Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….


13) Cam Newton was whining about late hits again Sunday, after Carolina beat the Cardinals. Guess he did it then so people could not call him a sore loser, since they had won.


Best part of this is that Carolina goes to LA next week to play the Rams, usually thought of as a dirty team. Refs might start throwing flags during warmups, just to get loosened up. Great.


12) Coco Crisp was going to get $13M from the A’s in 2017 if he played in 140 games this year, something like that. Since his skills are in decline, they were making sure he wasn’t going to reach 140 games, and he voiced his displeasure with that.


Note: It would’ve been incredibly stupid to pay him $13M next year. Fair or unfair, it was good business.


So to quiet the storm and I guess reward a player who had helped the A’s over the last few years, Oakland dealt him to the Indians on August 31 for an obscure lefty reliever named Colt Hynes. Weird circumstances can help a team win a championship.


11) Phoenix Suns have a young player named Alan Williams who was a good very player at Cal-Santa Barbara. If any of the Suns have trouble with the law, they can call Alan up— his mom just got named police chief for the city of Phoenix.


10) Jacksonville Jaguars just fired their OC in large part because the QB had regressed. Who did they replace the OC with? the QB coach, who is in charge of making sure the QB didn’t regress. Oy.


9) Now that the Cleveland Cavaliers are champs, ever wonder what their former coach David Blatt is doing? Guy got fired last year; you have to wonder what he is doing now. Is he coaching somewhere? Did he go back overseas?


Would be interesting if Blatt went on TV, to hear what he had to say. Former coaches are usually better than former players on TV.


8) Who was the first DH in MLB history? Ron Blomberg walked with the bases loaded against Luis Tiant in Fenway Park, in April of 1973, in the first big league AB by a designated hitter.


7) Russell Westbrook is the first NBA player since at least 1983 with 40+ field goal attempts, 20+ free throws and 10+ assists in the same game. He is also the first guy since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1975 to get a triple double with 50+ points.


6) Former Bills’ coach Mark Levy is 91; he looks great. Coach Levy was at Wrigley Field Friday night and was also there for the 1945 World Series, the last time the Cubs played in the Series, before this year.


5) Texas Longhorns haven’t had an offensive player taken in the first round of the NFL Draft since QB Vince Young, in 2006.


4) CFL’s Saskatchewan Roughriders closed out Taylor Field this week; lot of history there. Toronto Blue Jays actually played exhibition games in Regina in 1989 and 1993.


3) If you’ve never experienced Halloween in Las Vegas, I highly recommend it; few years ago, think it was 2012, i spent a weekend at the South Point Casino, which is a really good place, has a bowling alley, movie theater and 24-hour coffee shop as well as an excellent sports book. South Point also has an equestrian arena, so when the pro rodeo is in town, the cowboys stay there.


I had no idea there was such a thing as pro rodeo, so the first night I am there, I walk down into the casino and 95% of the people there are dressed like the cast of Blazing Saddles.


I ask the security guard if it is cowboy Halloween party and he says “No, the pro rodeo is in town.” I tell him I never heard of the pro rodeo. He looks at me and says “Where are you from?”


OK, so we don’t have rodeo in New York…….


2) So couple nights later, the rodeo is out of town and it is Saturday night and I notice a red carpet with TV cameras near the entrance. Ask the same security guard whats up.


“Oh, the fetish and fantasy ball is tonight.” he says. I give him a knowing look, not wanting to be a fool again, since I know we have fetish and fantasy here in New York but I had no idea what I was about to see.


An astounding parade of people in all kinds of costumes that were, um……revealing to say the least. I’m leaning up against a slot machine watching this in total amazement.


1) So I watch the parade for a little while then go watch the late college football games; after that I’m going up to my room for something and I get on the elevator with this couple from the fetish and fantasy ball.


He is dressed as a prison guard, handcuffs, night stick and all; she is in shackles and a neck collar, with an outfit that is torn in very strategic places. She had to be a model or a porn star, totally gorgeous and it is just the three of us on the elevator. I have zero idea what to do or say.


So I say nothing until we get to my floor and I wish them a Happy Halloween as I get off the elevator. I’m guessing they did.

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 8
October 31, 2016


Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 8 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-2-1
Against the Spread 8-4


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-4-1
Against the Spread 6-6


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-3


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Raiders (+1) at Buccaneers, 30-24 (OT)
Saints (+1) vs. Seahawks, 25-20


The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-5.5) at Bills, 41-25
Cowboys (-5) vs. Eagles, 29-23 (OT)
Broncos (-3.5) vs. Chargers, 27-19


Falcon Favorites?


-- The Atlanta Falcons rallied in the closing seconds to top the visiting Green Bay Packers 33-32 in a battle of gunslingers. The win ended a crazy streak, as the Falcons entered 0-7 SU in their past seven games as a favorite. They're still just 8-22-1 ATS in their past 31 as favorites, and an amazing 0-11 ATS over the past 11. They opened as a three-point favorite for their road game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Thursday night in Week 9.


Browns Frowns


-- The Cleveland Browns fell for the eighth time in eight games this season, dropping a 31-28 decision to the New York Jets. In the stadium affectionately known as the 'Factory of Sadness', but Browns fell to 0-3 SU/ATS at home this season, and they opened as touchdown underdogs to the visiting Dallas Cowboys for Week 9. Overall the Browns are 2-6 ATS, and 1-4 ATS as an underdog in the single digits. Thanks to an alarmingly bad defense, betting the total is the way to go in Cleveland games. The 'over' is 6-1 over the past seven.
Total Recall


-- The 'over' was back in the majority in Week 8. And how! After the 'under' finally won out in Week 7, it was back to high-scoring football in Week 9 with 'over' results in nine of the first 12 games heading into Monday night. In five games between AFC squads the 'over' went 4-1. In the NFC, the 'over' was 3-1 in four games and another result to come with the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears still yet to battle. In AFC vs. NFC games, the 'over' ended up 2-1. Through the first seven weeks of NFL action the 'over' is 66-53 (55.5%).


-- In the five games with the lowest total lines, all five hit the 'over' in Week 8. San Diego-Denver (43), Jacksonville-Tennessee (43.5), Philadelphia-Dallas (44), N.Y. Jets-Cleveland (45.5) and Arizona-Cardinal (45.5) went 'over' the total. For Week 9 there will be a handful of totals in the neighborhood of 43 and 44, and lately that has been a good way to make money on the 'over'.


-- Two of three games on the schedule with lines over 50 points actually hit the 'under'. The Green Bay-Atlanta (51) game lived up to expectations of a shootout, but Seattle-New Orleans (50) and Kansas City-Indianapolis (50.5) were each about a couple of field goals short of the mark. There will be at least three games with totals of the 50-point threshhold in Week 9, including the Thursday nighter in Tampa.


-- The 'over' finished 2-0 in two primetime games in Week 8, with the Monday nighter yet to come. Officially, the 'over' is 11-13 (45.8%) through 24 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.


Injury Report


-- Buccaneers RB Jacquizz Rodgers (foot) was in a walking boot due to a sprained foot after Sunday's overtime loss against the Raiders, and the media in Tampa is reporting it is a good bet Rodgers will be sidelined Thursday. That might be why the team re-signed former back Mike James Monday.


-- Chiefs QB Alex Smith (head) suffered what was believed to be a concussion in Indianapolis, leaving the field awfully wobbly. He was able to return, but then checked back out again later. While the word from the team is that Smith did not suffer concussion officially, he looked awfully shaky.


-- Falcons TE Jacob Tamme (shoulder) was knocked out of the shootout against the Packers Sunday, but his injury not believed to be serious. However, he is in jeopardy of missing the Tampa game due to the short week.


-- Titans RB DeMarco Murray (toe) battled through a toe injury in Thursday's game against Jacksonville, and was sent for an MRI. It appears he'll be able to continue to play, but the situation is worth monitoring.


Looking Ahead


-- The Falcons head down Interstate 75 to battle the Buccaneers Thursday night. (OK, they're flying.) The Bucs are 3-2 SU at home in the past five meetings against the Falcons, going 3-1-1 ATS. The teams met in Week 1, and Tampa Bay came away with a 31-24 win despite being 2 1/2-point underdogs. QB Jameis Winston is 3-0 SU/ATS as a starter against the Falcons, and the last time the Falcons were victorious in this series was Nov. 9, 2014.


-- The Steelers and Ravens hook up in Charm City, and usually the visits by Pittsburgh do not end very well. The Steelers have come up empty in their past three trips to Baltimore, last winning in M&T Bank Stadium Nov. 8, 2012. Baltimore swept last season's meetings, and they're 4-1 SU/3-1-1 ATS over the past five overall in this series, while going 8-3 SU/5-4-2 ATS during the span.


-- The Vikings and Lions renew acquaintances in the Twin Cities Sunday. Overall they're 7-2 ATS in the past nine in this series. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.


-- The Jets invade Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida, and lately it has been a home away from home for Gang Green. The Jets have won four straight at Miami dating back to Jan. 1, 2012, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six visits. The Jets have covered five consecutive meetings in this series.


-- The Raiders have looked much improved this season, and we'll find out if they're completely back when the Broncos come calling next Sunday night. The Silver and Black have dropped five straight home games against the Broncos dating back to Dec. 19, 2010, and they're 0-5 ATS during the span. Over the past nine in this series the Broncos are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS, but the Raiders are a much different team than past seasons. Or are they?

 

[CNOTES]

Opening Line Report - Week 9
October 31, 2016


Here’s a game-by-game look the early point spreads for the NFL’s Week 9 betting card, with insight from two Las Vegas oddsmakers – CG Technology vice president of risk Jason Simbal and Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook manager Ed Salmons.


The numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 11:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, with early line moves and differences among sports books noted.


Thursday , Nov. 3


Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers


The Bucs have won the last three meetings in this series, including at Atlanta in Week 1 this season. That didn’t stop oddsmakers from posting the Falcons as the road favorites and early bettors from laying the points. CG Technology opened Atlanta -2, moved on air from -2.5 minutes later, and then to -3 after taking a bet on the chalk.


“We have a few guys each week who try to hit the early numbers if they think they’re off, and this was one of those guys,” Simbal said of the wager.


Sunday, Nov. 6


Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)


The Chiefs opened -7.5 at the Westgate and -8 at CG.


While Salmons doesn’t see a big difference between Alex Smith and Nick Foles – the Chiefs “just do what they do,” he said, “it’s not like it’s a complicated offense” – some books will hold off hanging a number on this game until they learn more about Smith’s status. He took a couple shots to the head in Sunday’s game against the Colts.


“The reason we (posted the game) is because we’re in so many Strip properties and there’s a lot of fans that want to bet games like this,” said Simbal. ”So we try to put up our best estimate of a number and let the bets decide if they think he’s going to play or not. We went with 8, which is closer to him playing but not as high as it could be.”


Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)


This line ranged from Minnesota -6 at William Hill U.S. to -7 at CG Technology on Sunday night.


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3)


Before Philly took the field in Dallas on Sunday night, CG was dealing the Giants -2.5 for next week’s NFC East showdown, while the Westgate hung -3.


Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Cleveland Browns


The Browns were offered at +6.5 at the Westgate and +7 on Sunday as they look for their first win of the season at home next week against the Cowboys.


New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)


The Westgate and CG both opened Miami -3 (-120) with quick moves to -3.5. Bettors faded the Jets against the Browns last week, moving the line in Las Vegas from New York -4.5 to -2.5, an indication of the market’s lack of confidence in Todd Bowles’ men.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)


Despite Ben Roethlisberger’s likely absence, public bettors were on the Steelers at CG on Sunday for next week’s AFC North clash in Baltimore. The line stayed put at 2.5, though, since public money early in the week doesn’t influence books to move their numbers. Still, the early action told Simbal something.


“We took a bunch of public money on the Steelers pretty quickly,” he said. “That means, to me, that number is probably about right because if the public is taking the Steelers +2.5, this might be a situation where we actually need a favorite.”


Salmons, meanwhile, is waiting to post a number on this game until he’s sure Roethlisberger will not play. If he starts, the Steelers will be at least 3- or 3.5-point favorites next week, he said.


Simbal and Salmons agree that it’s hard to evaluate Roethlisberger’s replacement, Landry Jones, from the Patriots game two weeks ago – Jones’ lone start of the season – because of the sizable gap between the Pats and the rest of the league.


Simbal recalled the betting pattern of that game, “Most people had Pittsburgh -2 and it closed New England -7, but Roethlisberger’s not really worth 9 points; he’s just worth 9 points against New England. Against a team like Baltimore, he’s worth a lot less.”


New Orleans Saints (-3) at San Francisco 49ers


While laying this short number will entice plenty of public players, they should be aware that the road favorite role has been particularly brutal for the Saints. Since 2013, New Orleans is a bankroll-busting 2-9 ATS when laying points away from home.


Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams


Carolina was bet from -2.5 to -3 at multiple shops on Sunday, but the +3s didn’t last long for Rams bettors, as the line settled back at 2.5.


Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (-7)


Despite a multitude of injuries for the Packers, CG took a few early Green Bay bets on Sunday. Not enough, though, for the book to move off -6.5.


“You don’t really want to go to 7 because of (the injuries) and give sharp guys the +7,” Simbal said. “If there are so many injuries, the public may not want to lay the 7, so it can put you in a bad spot. We’ll probably have to sit tight here and see what happens.”


Most shops were dealing 7, however.


Salmons said he can see this line going as low as Green Bay -4.5, depending on how many significant players can’t go, but he believes the Packers have bigger problems than the immediate health of their roster.


“It looks like a team that got old really fast,” Salmons said. “You can see it. They just have zero team speed, bottom line.”


The good news is they’re playing the Colts next week.


“The Colts are just so wretched,” Salmons said. “(The Colts and Packers are) two teams going in a downhill direction. Green Bay at least has a pulse. You watch this (Colts) team every week and you say to yourself, ‘how can this guy (Chuck Pagano) still be coaching this team?’”


Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-5)


Speaking of wretched, San Diego is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 opportunities as a favorite. That didn’t stop bettors from laying the Chargers from -4.5 up to -5 at some spots in Vegas. As of this writing, the line ranged from 4.5 to 5.5.


Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (pick ‘em)


While most books have this game a pick ‘em, the Westgate was dealing Denver -1 on Sunday. Salmons isn’t all that high on the 5-2 Raiders.


“They keep getting miracle wins against these really bad teams,” he said. “… I expect them to lose to Denver next week.”


Monday, Nov. 6


Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-7)


CG opened Seattle -6 and was bet to -6.5 by wiseguys who may have been trying to get ahead of the public money that’s sure to come.


“I don’t know how much of (the early wagering on Seattle) is realizing how horrible Buffalo looked and that on a Monday night all the fans will bet the Seahawks.”


Simbal seemed to welcome the action on the favorite.


“This is the type of game where the Bills should be able to hang,” he said. “You saw it (Sunday vs. the Patriots). Their offense is actually decent. They just had stupid penalties, which Seattle tends to have as well. They just couldn’t stop Brady. But Seattle’s offense is very uninspiring.”


Salmons added of the Seahawks, “Their offense is playing so bad. I don’t know what their answer is on offense. You keep saying to yourself, one of these weeks they’re going to wake up and be Seattle, but I’m not so sure Seattle’s not heading in the same direction as Green Bay.”

 

[CNOTES]

Trends to Watch - November
October 30, 2016

November brings out the best in family, football and friends. It’s the time of the year when the NFL makes its 2nd half run to the playoffs, and where friends and family dine around the Thanksgiving Day table for food and good times.


Let’s ensure a good time playing the football games with these delectable morsels of trends and patterns by NFL teams since 1990. Enjoy the games, and pass on the gravy.


HOME TEAMS


Good: Buffalo has been the best home team this time of the season at 31-18 ATS. Unfortunately, thanks to a bye week, they have just one home game against Jacksonville (11/27).


Bad: Maybe a change in venue will help the Rams, since they are miserable 17-37 ATS playing at home this month. Carolina (11/6) and Miami (11/20) will pay a visit to Los Angeles.


Nearly as bad is Cleveland at 11-22 ATS and they will have a trio of opportunities to improve, but all are against playoff contenders. The Browns will take on the Dallas (11/6), Pittsburgh (11/20) and the New York Giants (11/27).


Keep an eye on (Bad): For some reason, there are several NFL teams that are money-drainers in November at home. Let's start in the NFC East with the Giants (17-32 ATS) and Washington (20-30 ATS). The G-Men actually have a three-game homestand to start the month, facing Philadelphia (11/6), Cincinnati (11/14) and Chicago (11/20). After a bye week, the Redskins host NFC North clubs Minnesota (11/13) and Green Bay(11/20) on consecutive weeks.


In the AFC, we find Oakland (16-31 ATS) and Tennessee (19-29 ATS) have been rather awful in their buildings. The Raiders have Sunday night game on the 6th against Denver and close the month on the 27th versus Carolina. The Titans have three road games in November, thus their fans will just see Green Bay (11/13).


AWAY TEAMS


Good: Houston has been rather dismal on the road in 2016, let's see if they can match 18-8 ATS November records from the past. After a week off the Texans are at Jacksonville (11/13) followed by a trip to Mexico to play the Raiders (11/20).


Keep an eye on (Good): Chicago has an exceptional 37-20 spread record away from the Windy City and will venture to Tampa Bay and New Jersey (Giants) in the middle two Sunday's of the month.


Indianapolis (33-19 ATS) and the Browns (29-17 ATS) have also thrived out of town. The Colts will be at the not quite frozen tundra in Lambeau Field on the Nov.6th, with Cleveland at truly hated Baltimore on a Thursday night (11/10).


Keep an eye on (Bad): Other than last year, Detroit usually fades in the second half as noted by 16-29 ATS mark on the road. Lucky for the Lions only one road assignment, which is at Minnesota on the first Sunday of the month.

FAVORITES


Keep an eye on (Good): Despite Carolina’s precipitous fall this season, they are 28-18 ATS and could be favored in four of their games this month.


The Bears are solid 23-14 ATS when handing out points and figure to be a small home favorite over Tennessee on the 27th, but that could change by game time.


Dallas for much of the Tony Romo era was known for great November's and collapsing in December. He contributed to 42-28 ATS record this month, and his teammates will be favored at Cleveland (11/6), home against Baltimore (11/20) and versus the Redskins (Thanksgiving), with game at Pittsburgh (11/13) up in the air depending on Ben Roethlisberger's availability.

Bad: Washington is a horrific favorite in November with a 12-29 ATS record, but we will have to see if they are assigned that role at home against the Vikings (11/13) and Packers (11/20).


Keep an eye on (Bad): The Rams are 15-26 ATS in chalk roles and they might be once at home against Miami (11/20).


Oakland is actually worse than L.A. handing out the digits at 15-28 against the spread, yet are likely small favorites against the Texans (11/20) in Mexico and the following week hosting the Panthers. The Raiders are probably a short home dog to Denver on the 6th, but that is wait and see.


UNDERDOGS


Keep an eye on (Good): Usually by now, Tampa Bay is playing out the season and that has made them a dangerous underdog at 40-24 ATS. However, the numbers will be smaller this season in that role with improvement, going to K.C. (11/20) and hosting Seattle the next week.


Houston is sharp 21-14 ATS as a pooch and as mentioned, will most likely get a few points against Oakland and have a slight chance of being no more than a one-point dog at Jacksonville (11/13) coming off a bye.


Bad: A lot of negative talk about the Rams, but when you have all these rotten numbers and add in 15-34 ATS mark as underdogs, it is unavoidable. Oddsmakers will probably make L.A. a dog when Cam Newton and company comes to town on the 6th and assuredly Jeff Fisher's squad will be given points at the Jets (11/13) and at the Saints (11/27).


The Giants are dreadful 13-31 ATS receiving point from sportsbooks, yet do not figure to be underdogs, unless Cincinnati (11/14) gets hot for visit to Jersey on Monday night.


Keep an eye on (Bad): The Lions are at 23-40 ATS are play against material as underdogs. For sure they will dogs at Minnesota (11/6), however, the return engagement on Thanksgiving is not a certainty.

DIVISION


Keep an eye on (Good): New Orleans posts a quality 27-15 ATS record in the NFC South and will at Carolina on the 17th for a Thursday throw-down.


Da Raiders are 28-19 ATS and can make some noise with a home upset of the Broncos on the first Sunday. The Eagles will fly to play the Giants also on Nov.6th and try to improve on 30-20 ATS division mark.


Keep an eye on (Bad): The Chiefs are undistinguished 18-29 ATS in the AFC West and will be at a Mile High on the 27th.

 

[CNOTES]

Week 9 NFL


Falcons (5-3) @ Buccaneers (3-4)— Underdogs are 20-3 vs spread in Atlanta games since Quinn has been their coach. Over is 7-1 in their games this year; road teams covered seven of eight games. Falcons are 3-1 on road (4-0 vs spread) but were dogs in all four. Bucs are 0-3 at home this year after 30-24 OT loss to Oakland; Raiders ran 85 plays for 626 yards, averaged 8.2 ypa. Tampa allowed 24 or less points in its wins, 27+ in its losses. Tampa Bay had three TD plays of 23+ yards in 31-24 win (+3) in season opener in Atlanta; Winston averaged 8.5 yds/pass attempt. Bucs won last three series games, by 3-4-7 points; LY was their first series sweep since ’07. Falcons are 4-3 in last seven visits here. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NFC South divisional games so far this season.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL TRENDS


ATS


8:30 pm 11/6/2016
(471) DENVER @(472) OAKLAND
Play ON DENVER against the spread in All games as an underdog.
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!


4:25 pm 11/6/2016
(469) TENNESSEE @(470) SAN DIEGO
Play ON SAN DIEGO against the spread in All games against AFC South division opponents.
The record is 26 Wins and 4 Losses since 1992 (+21.6 units)
BET NOW!


4:25 pm 11/6/2016
(469) TENNESSEE @(470) SAN DIEGO
Play ON SAN DIEGO against the spread in Home games against AFC South division opponents.
The record is 15 Wins and 1 Losses since 1992 (+13.9 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play ON DALLAS against the spread in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play ON DALLAS against the spread in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(453) DETROIT @(454) MINNESOTA
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all lined games.
The record is 19 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.6 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(453) DETROIT @(454) MINNESOTA
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all games.
The record is 19 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.6 units)
BET NOW!


8:25 pm 11/3/2016
(307) ATLANTA @(308) TAMPA BAY
Play AGAINST ATLANTA against the spread in All games as a favorite.
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.1 units)
BET NOW!


8:25 pm 11/3/2016
(307) ATLANTA @(308) TAMPA BAY
Play AGAINST ATLANTA against the spread in All games as a favorite.
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.6 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

NFL TRENDS


Money Line


8:30 pm 11/6/2016
(471) DENVER @(472) OAKLAND
Play AGAINST OAKLAND using the money line in Home games in November games.
The record is 13 Wins and 28 Losses since 1992 (-25.85 units)
BET NOW!


4:25 pm 11/6/2016
(469) TENNESSEE @(470) SAN DIEGO
Play ON SAN DIEGO using the money line in Home games against AFC South division opponents.
The record is 14 Wins and 2 Losses since 1992 (+12.5 units)
BET NOW!


4:25 pm 11/6/2016
(469) TENNESSEE @(470) SAN DIEGO
Play ON SAN DIEGO using the money line in All games against AFC South division opponents.
The record is 24 Wins and 7 Losses since 1992 (+22.6 units)
BET NOW!


4:05 pm 11/6/2016
(463) NEW ORLEANS @(464) SAN FRANCISCO
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using the money line in All games as a favorite.
The record is 9 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-22.15 units)
BET NOW!


4:05 pm 11/6/2016
(463) NEW ORLEANS @(464) SAN FRANCISCO
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using the money line in Road games against NFC West division opponents.
The record is 5 Wins and 11 Losses since 1992 (-20.2 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(453) DETROIT @(454) MINNESOTA
Play AGAINST DETROIT using the money line in Road games versus division opponents.
The record is 20 Wins and 65 Losses since 1992 (-42.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(455) PHILADELPHIA @(456) NY GIANTS
Play AGAINST NY GIANTS using the money line in Home games in November games.
The record is 19 Wins and 29 Losses since 1992 (-33.7 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(451) JACKSONVILLE @(452) KANSAS CITY
Play ON KANSAS CITY using the money line in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+9.4 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using the money line in All games in all games.
The record is 3 Wins and 21 Losses for the last two seasons (-18.7 units)
BET NOW!


8:25 pm 11/3/2016
(307) ATLANTA @(308) TAMPA BAY
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY using the money line in All games in home lined games.
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the last three seasons (-17.75 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

NFL TRENDS


Half Time




4:05 pm 11/6/2016
(465) CAROLINA @(466) LA RAMS
Play ON LA RAMS in the first half in All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 21 Wins and 5 Losses for the last three seasons (+15.5 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(461) PITTSBURGH @(462) BALTIMORE
Play ON PITTSBURGH in the first half in All games in games where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5.
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play ON DALLAS in the first half in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play ON DALLAS in the first half in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(451) JACKSONVILLE @(452) KANSAS CITY
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE in the first half in All games in all games where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5.
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last two seasons (-12.4 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(459) NY JETS @(460) MIAMI
Play AGAINST MIAMI in the first half in All games versus division opponents.
The record is 2 Wins and 12 Losses for the last three seasons (-11.2 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(451) JACKSONVILLE @(452) KANSAS CITY
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE in the first half in All games versus the first half line in all games.
The record is 5 Wins and 17 Losses for the last two seasons (-13.7 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

NFL TRENDS


Half Time Over


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play OVER CLEVELAND on the first half total in All games after 2 or more consecutive losses.
The record is 12 Overs and 2 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(457) DALLAS @(458) CLEVELAND
Play OVER CLEVELAND on the first half total in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 7 Overs and 0 Unders this season (+7 units)
BET NOW!


-------------------------------


NFL TRENDS


Half Time Under




8:30 pm 11/7/2016
(473) BUFFALO @(474) SEATTLE
Play UNDER SEATTLE on the first half total in All games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line.
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+9 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(453) DETROIT @(454) MINNESOTA
Play UNDER DETROIT on the first half total in Road games against conference opponents.
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(459) NY JETS @(460) MIAMI
Play UNDER MIAMI on the first half total in Home games off a win against a division rival.
The record is 7 Overs and 25 Unders since 1992 (+17.3 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

NFL POWER LINES


NFL Power Line ratings are calculated using both teams' ratings and home field advantage. The Top Power Lines tool offers a way to view and compare current Power Lines in one simple report, as well as the Power Line Edge, where the Power Line differs significantly from the current betting line.


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(451) JACKSONVILLE @(452) KANSAS CITY
Play Line: KANSAS CITY -9.5
BTB PowerLine: KANSAS CITY -21
Edge On: KANSAS CITY 11.5


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(459) NY JETS @(460) MIAMI
Play Line: NY JETS 4
BTB PowerLine: NY JETS +3
Edge On: NY JETS 1


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(461) PITTSBURGH @(462) BALTIMORE
Play Line: PITTSBURGH 3
BTB PowerLine: PITTSBURGH -5
Edge On: PITTSBURGH 8


1:00 pm 11/6/2016
(455) PHILADELPHIA @(456) NY GIANTS
Play Line: PHILADELPHIA 2.5
BTB PowerLine: PHILADELPHIA -5
Edge On: PHILADELPHIA 7.5


4:05 pm 11/6/2016
(465) CAROLINA @(466) LA RAMS
Play Line: CAROLINA -3
BTB PowerLine: CAROLINA -4
Edge On: CAROLINA 1


4:05 pm 11/6/2016
(463) NEW ORLEANS @(464) SAN FRANCISCO
Play Line: NEW ORLEANS -3
BTB PowerLine: NEW ORLEANS -4
Edge On: NEW ORLEANS 1


4:25 pm 11/6/2016
(469) TENNESSEE @(470) SAN DIEGO
Play Line: SAN DIEGO -5
BTB PowerLine: SAN DIEGO -12
Edge On: SAN DIEGO 7


4:25 pm 11/6/2016
(467) INDIANAPOLIS @(468) GREEN BAY
Play Line: GREEN BAY -7
BTB PowerLine: GREEN BAY -12
Edge On: GREEN BAY 5


8:30 pm 11/6/2016
(471) DENVER @(472) OAKLAND
Play Line: DENVER 0
BTB PowerLine: DENVER -5
Edge On: DENVER 5


8:30 pm 11/7/2016
(473) BUFFALO @(474) SEATTLE
Play Line: BUFFALO 6.5
BTB PowerLine: BUFFALO +5
Edge On: BUFFALO 1.5

 

[CNOTES]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:


10/27/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
10/30/2016 10-10-0 50.00% -500
10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 72-89-4 44.72% -12950


O/U Picks 67-94-5 41.61% -18200


Triple Plays:..... 18 - 24 - 1

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s six-pack


— Cubs 9, Indians 3– Game 7 is tonight in Cleveland.


— November 21 Texans-Raiders Monday night game is being played in Mexico City.


— Raiders don’t play another true road game until December 8 in KC; they finish with three road games in last four weeks, all division games.


— Patriots got a 3rd-round draft pick from Cleveland for LB Jaime Collins.


— Chicago Bulls are 3-0 for the first time in 20 years.


— Oklahoma City Thunder gave Victor Oladipo $84M for four years.




Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings…….


13) Steelers-Ravens play in Baltimore Sunday, with both teams off a bye week; wouldn’t it have made sense for this to be the Thursday night game this week? Football wasn’t meant to be played on three days’ rest.


12) Chicago Bears are the only NFL team that does not have a defensive player who has ever played in a Pro Bowl.


11) Bears’ offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains went to college at Arkansas, where he held for kicks for four years and learned football from coach Houston Nutt.


Loggains could’ve gone to a smaller school and played QB, but he thought he wanted to be a coach and chose to learn from Nutt, who was a very good coach before going on TV.


10) ESPN fantasy sports guru Matthew Berry was once a writer for the TV show Married with Children.


9) Dolphins are favored over the Jets this week; this is only 2nd time in last 12 years that Miami is favored in its post-bye game. Overall, Dolphins are 6-12 in their last 18 post-bye games.


8) There is a TV show on the History Channel called American Pickers, where two guys drive around in a van and try to buy collectible stuff from older people who live in mostly rural areas.


Why older people? Because they want to find people who are just looking to get rid of stuff, preferably for less money. Sometimes you get mad at the two guys, especially Frank, who thinks he is smarter than everyone else, but that is part of the business of making money, I guess.


The guys own two shops where they re-sell the stuff for a profit. It is oddly entertaining and worth watching.


7) In three of last five seasons, Dwight Howard has made less than half his foul shots; he is off to an 11-24 start this year, after his 8-20 game against the Kings Monday.


Howard makes $23M a year, has already banked $167M in salary in his career. How can I be a better free throw shooter than he is?


6) Clippers TV announcer Ralph Lawler is joy to listen to; always watch as many Clipper games as I can. Clippers were so bad for so long and now they’re good, so you’re happy for him. Lawler is enthusiastic and you can tell he is a real basketball fan.


5) Oklahoma City traded Ersan Ilyasova to Philly Tuesday, after he played only 62 minutes in three games for the Thunder- they acquired him as part of the Serge Ibaka deal.


This means when he plays for the Sixers, it’ll be the 5th team Ilyasova has played for in his last 79 games, going from the Bucks to Detroit to Orlando to the Thunder to Philadelphia.


On one hand, teams want you enough to trade for you; on the other hand, once they have you, then don’t mind getting rid of you.


4) Good news for NC State’s basketball team; freshman 7-footer Omer Yurtseven will be able to play for the Wolfpack this year— he becomes eligible December 15, enough time to get in a few games before ACC play starts.


Yurtseven is a 5-star level recruit, a huge get for Mark Gottfried.


3) There is a story going around that Nick Saban was interested in the Giants’ coaching job last January, and that the team almost hired him. Somehow, comedian Tom Arnold is involved with spreading this story, which makes it a little weirder.


You get the feeling Saban has one more coaching stop in him and it will be an NFL job— he has nothing left to prove in college.


2) Mets closer Jeurys Familia got arrested in New Jersey on domestic violence charges, which is bad news for Mets, seeing as Jose Reyes got suspended 52 games LY for a similar offense.


Aroldis Chapman got a 30-game suspension this year and he was never arrested for his offense.


1— Obscure Fact of the Day: Eddie Johnson played 17 years in the NBA, scored 19,202 points; he holds the record for most points scored in the NBA, without ever making an All-Star team.


Jamal Crawford has a good chance to break that record; he has scored 17,117 points; he is 36, looks like he would have to play two more years at his current pace to set the new record.

 

[CNOTES]

Close Calls - Week 8
November 1, 2016


Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 8 of the NFL regular season.


Cincinnati Bengals (-3) 27, Washington Redskins 27 (48½): The scoring summary looks like this was a very exciting game in London with the teams mostly trading scores, penalties and missed opportunities made watching it a bit less interesting than it could have been. Cincinnati was even with the favorite spread with a three-point edge heading into the fourth quarter and that was the margin with under seven minutes to go after trading touchdowns. After trading punts, Washington drove into field goal range in the final minutes, but had three incomplete passes in a row to settle for the tying kick.


Both teams picked up yardage on their first overtime possessions, but ultimately had to punt with penalties playing a role. A penalty gave Washington a key third down conversion on its next drive and it appeared the win was in hand with a 34-yard field goal attempt but the kick was missed. The Bengals approached midfield with just over a minute to go in the overtime quarter, but fumbled and Washington wasn’t able to get close enough to try another kick, failing on a Hail Mary attempt as a tie was the final result.


Atlanta Falcons (-3) 33, Green Bay Packers 32 (51): These NFC contenders traded scores the entire game with no consecutive scoring plays throughout. Green Bay led 21-13 late in the second quarter before an Atlanta touchdown, and the Falcons wound up going for two and the tie and falling short, points that would prove important later on. The Packers added a field goal before halftime for a five-point edge, but Atlanta scored the only points in the third quarter, taking a two-point edge into the final frame. With the help of a pair of Atlanta penalties, the Packers went 86 yards to score with about four minutes to go in the game, getting the two-point conversion as well for a 32-26 edge. Atlanta managed to answer with relative ease, facing just two third-and-short plays on an 11-play drive to take a one-point lead with 31 seconds to go. The Packers produce a comeback drive in the final 30 seconds but did enough for the underdog cover.


New Orleans Saints (+1) 25, Seattle Seahawks 20 (48): The Seahawks led by one through two and three quarters in this game with both teams settling for several short field goals with a 17-16 edge entering the fourth quarter. The Saints connected for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to go up by five, failing on the two-point conversion attempt. Seattle reached the New Orleans 5-yard line on its next possession with a new set of downs, but went backwards before ultimately settling for a 21-yard field goal to remain trailing by two points. That kick was also important in keeping the game ‘under’ the total as New Orleans also settled for a field goal just after the two-minute warning to lead by five again. Seattle had plenty of time remaining and wound up getting a final play from the 2-yard line, missing on a back corner fade that would have flipped the side and total results.


New York Jets (-2½) 31, Cleveland Browns 28 (45½): This line hit as high as -5½ for the Jets early in the week before it was announced that Josh McCown would return. Cleveland led 20-7 at the half looking for its first win, but the Jets took over in the second half, scoring the next 24 points to take a 31-20 edge with four minutes to go in the game. Cleveland wound up scoring a touchdown with 12 seconds to go and some had to sweat on a two-point conversion try which the Browns succeeded in, making for a 31-28 final.


Oakland Raiders (PK) 30, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 (48½): The Raiders rallied back from a 10-0 early deficit with a 17-10 edge by the start of the fourth quarter. Tampa Bay scored early in the fourth quarter but the extra-point was missed. On the next Tampa Bay drive, the Buccaneers made amends with a touchdown and a two-point conversion to go up 24-17. The ‘over’ looked promising as the Raiders answered including getting a fourth-down conversion on a 75-yard drive to tie the game at 24-24 with 1:38 remaining. After forcing a punt, the Raiders got the ball back and had a 50-yard kick to win the game but missed left. Overtime was needed and in a record setting penalty performance the Raiders went backwards after reaching the Tampa Bay 23-yard line and settled for a 52-yard kick that Sebastian Janikowski missed right on its first possession. Those on the ‘under’ started to have some serious hope with three straight punts, but a marginal effort put the Raiders at their own 40-yard line with 3:21 to go in overtime. Facing fourth-and-3 and sitting outside of field goal range, the Raiders connected for a 41-yard touchdown to win the game and seal the ‘over’ as a tie was a very real possibility if Tampa Bay had gotten the stop.


Denver Broncos (-4) 27, San Diego Chargers 19 (43½): Down 17-7, the Chargers scored late in the third quarter, but only pulled to within four points with a blocked extra-point. Denver completed a 15-play drive to lead 24-13 early in the fourth quarter but on the next Broncos possession, a 24-yard interception return put San Diego within five. The Chargers had allowed a pick-6 earlier in the game but they again couldn’t make it a 3-point margin as they failed going for two after their own defensive touchdown. Denver hit a bit play to reach the red zone but settled for a field goal to put the margin at eight points. San Diego went 73 yards on the next drive but failed with four straight incomplete passes from the Denver 2-yard line with fewer than three minutes to go. Denver had to punt pinned deep as the Chargers got the ball back with still two minutes to go in good field position but the Chargers could not convert near midfield as Denver escaped with a win and the cover.


Dallas Cowboys (-5) 29, Philadelphia Eagles 23 (43½): The Eagles led most of the Sunday night game including a 10-point edge in the fourth quarter, but Dallas trimmed the margin to seven points following a Philadelphia fumble. The Eagles had a 10-play drive to the Dallas 30-yard line, but a third down mishandled snap pushed the Eagles out of field goal range and they punted to the Dallas 10-yard line. Dak Prescott led a 90-yard drive to tie the game with about three minutes to go, a score that sealed the ‘over’ as well. Overtime was needed and getting the ball first Dallas didn’t surrender it, going 75 yards in 12 plays and over seven minutes for a game and spread winning touchdown. The result was certainly only possible in the new overtime rules as Dallas went for it on 4th-and-1 from the Philadelphia 28-yard line rather than kicking a field goal as Philadelphia would have still had a possession if Dallas only came up with three points.

 

[CNOTES]

Miami aiming for .500
November 1, 2016


Can Dolphins' Ajayi Make NFL History?


The NFL has some magical numbers when it comes to individual statistical achievements: 2,000 yards rushing or 5,000 yards passing to name two. But the NFL isn't close to Major League Baseball terms of mainstream important numbers. Even the most casual sports fans know what the MLB records for career or single-season home runs are, for example. Or the last player to hit .400. Now tell me the NFL single-season record for passing yards or rushing touchdowns. Didn't think so.


But a pretty significant NFL record could be set this Sunday when the Miami Dolphins (3-4) come out of their bye week to host the AFC East rival New York Jets (3-5). In a Week 6 upset of Pittsburgh, Dolphins second-year running back Jay Ajayi, a fifth-round pick out of Boise State, carried 25 times for 204 yards (8.2 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. The next week in a 28-25 upset of the Buffalo Bills, Ajayi rushed 28 times for 214 yards (7.6 ypc) and a touchdown.


Ajayi is just the fourth player in league history with back-to-back 200-yard games, joining Hall of Famers O.J. Simpson (twice) and Earl Campbell and former Dolphin Ricky Williams. None of those three managed to hit 200 yards three games in a row. Ajayi goes up against the Jets' top-ranked rushing defense on Sunday; New York allows only 74.0 yards per game. The Dolphins are 3.5-point favorites on BetOnline's NFL odds to win a third straight game and reach .500. The total is 44.


Very deservedly, Ajayi was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week following both his 200-yard games. What made the outburst even more stunning was that Ajayi opened the season as the backup to Arian Foster and did little even when Foster, who retired last week, got injured.


In the first four games, Ajayi totaled 31 carries for 117 yards (3.8 ypc). His long rush in the first four weeks was 11 yards. Ajayi had a 62-yard TD run against the Steelers and a 53-yard non-scoring run against the Bills. In those two games, Miami's offense went from 28th in the NFL in rushing to ninth.


One big difference in Ajayi's success has been the fact his projected starting offensive line -- Mike Pouncey at center, Branden Albert at left tackle, Laremy Tunsil at left guard, Jermon Bushrod at right guard and Ja’Wuan James at right tackle -- played together for the first time this season against Pittsburgh. Pouncey missed the first four games due to injury. Albert missed a couple.


It also helps that Coach Adam Gase has shifted to a ground-and-pound approach to take pressure off struggling quarterback Ryan Tannehill. He has been sacked just once in the two-game winning streak. Tannehill went down 17 times in the first five games.


Miami hasn't won three in a row since 2014. The Dolphins were 0-2 vs. the Jets last year. Ajayi had just three carries for six yards against them.


The Fins haven't made the playoffs since 2008, but that's potentially attainable with a win over New York and a very manageable schedule upcoming. Following the Jets, the Dolphins play four straight games against teams that finished currently have losing records in the Chargers, Rams, 49ers and Ravens. The only 2015 playoff teams left on the schedule are Arizona (Week 14) and New England (Week 17), both in south Florida. The Cardinals also have a losing record and the Patriots might have nothing to play for by then.


Since 1990, only eight teams have made the playoffs after starting 1-4, but the 2016 Dolphins could join that club as long as Ajayi doesn't break down from the heavy workload.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 9 Opening Line Report: Raiders, Bronocs meet with first place on the line


The Broncos open their big matchup with the Raiders as 1-pt home faves with the first in the AFC West on the line.


Every team in the NFL reaches at least the season’s midpoint this weekend, and perhaps a game beyond that for teams that haven’t had their bye week yet. We talk about some key Week 9 opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.


Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+1)


Defending Super Bowl champion Denver is atop the AFC West, but not alone, as on-the-rise Oakland is also 6-2 SU heading into a Sunday night showdown. The Broncos (6-2 ATS) held off San Diego 27-19 as a 3.5-point home favorite in Week 8, continuing an interesting trend: in their last 12 victories, the Broncos have held their opponents to 20 points or less all 12 times.


Oakland (5-3 ATS) has continued its rise by hanging out in Florida the past two weeks and bagging consecutive wins and covers. In Week 7, the Raiders bested Jacksonville, and on Sunday, Oakland edged Tampa Bay 30-24 in overtime as a 1-point underdog.


“This is a great prime-time matchup, with these teams vying for sole possession of first place in the very competitive AFC West,” Childs said. “The Raiders are hot, winning and covering their past two games, but that was against the god-awful Jags and the very inconsistent Bucs. Against the Bucs, they set a record for number of penalties recorded in an NFL game (23).”


Childs noted the Raiders are a stout 5-0 SU and ATS on the road, but have failed to cash in their three home games this season.


“So this is truly a test, going up against the defending Super Bowl champs,” Childs said. “We considered making this game a pick ’em, because while the Raiders have struggled at home, they still have great support in Oakland. And being the Sunday night game, we fully expect a raucous crowd.


“But we also know that our customers are going to bet the Broncos in this game, and we wanted to open them a slight favorite, which we did, having them lay 1. So far, 80 percent of early action has come in as we expected, on the Broncos, and we’re sure that money will continue to come in on the Broncos up until game time. We’ll be fine going into this game needing the Raiders, they’re definitely live, and no question they’re going to bring a monster effort in their first Sunday night game since I can remember.”


Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)


This is annually a key game for these AFC North rivals, but Pittsburgh will still be without Ben Roethlisberger (knee), and Baltimore is flailing after a strong start. The Steelers (4-3 SU and ATS) are coming off their bye, following a 27-16 home loss to New England as a 7.5-point pup on Oct. 23.


The Ravens (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) are also coming off the bye, having lost four in a row SU and five in a row ATS. In Week 7, as a 2.5-point road ‘dog to the New York Jets, Baltimore lost 24-16.


“Maybe no team in the NFL needed a bye more than the Ravens,” Childs said. “Baltimore simply can’t move the ball on offense and recently fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman. The extra week should help new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg implement his schemes and systems.”


Sportsbook.ag strongly considered Ravens -3 as the opening number, with Pittsburgh trotting out Landry Jones as the starting quarterback.
“I really wanted to make the Ravens a solid 3-point favorite. But we simply couldn’t,” Childs said. “The history of this rivalry has been intense and ultra-competitive, and both games last year landed on 3. Throw in the fact that bettors are very down on this Ravens team, and we simply couldn’t open up as high as a field goal, so we opened Ravens -2.5. So far we’ve seen steady, two-way action.”


Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-7)


Minnesota (5-1 SU and ATS) still has some Week 8 work to complete, traveling to Chicago to face the Bears in a Halloween Monday nighter. But that didn’t stop Childs from posting the Vikings’ Week 9 line a little bit earlier, largely due to Detroit’s performance Sunday. The Lions (4-4 SU and ATS) saw their three-game SU and ATS streak halted in a 20-13 loss at Houston as a 1-point ‘dog


“Detroit went into Houston with some nice momentum, but those wins were all at home, and yesterday, they simply couldn’t execute on offense,” Childs said. “If the Lions can’t move the ball against Houston on the road, you can’t expect them to do much against the best defense, playing in the loudest stadium in the NFL.


“So far, we’ve seen decent two-way action at our current number of Minnesota -7, but so much will depend on how the Vikings play tonight. Their performance will impact how we reopen this line Tuesday.”


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3)


New York hopes to pick up where it left off before its bye week, as the Giants had won two in a row SU and ATS, including a 17-10 victory at Los Angeles giving 2.5 points in Week 7 to reach 4-3 SU, 3-3-1 ATS. Philadelphia (4-3 SU and ATS) started the season 3-0 behind rookie QB Carson Wentz, but has now lost three of four, including Sunday’s 29-23 overtime setback at Dallas catching 5 points.


“I suspect we’ll open up the Giants about a field-goal favorite, but we haven’t opened this game yet, as the Eagles played on Sunday night,” Childs said.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 9


Thursday, November 3


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ATLANTA (5 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 4) - 11/3/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 59-35 ATS (+20.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, November 6


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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 2) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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DETROIT (4 - 4) at MINNESOTA (5 - 1) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
DETROIT is 61-87 ATS (-34.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 128-165 ATS (-53.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 3) at NY GIANTS (4 - 3) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 33-60 ATS (-33.0 Units) in November games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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DALLAS (6 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 8) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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NY JETS (3 - 5) at MIAMI (3 - 4) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 68-95 ATS (-36.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 51-78 ATS (-34.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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PITTSBURGH (4 - 3) at BALTIMORE (3 - 4) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NEW ORLEANS (3 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 6) - 11/6/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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CAROLINA (2 - 5) at LA RAMS (3 - 4) - 11/6/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 155-121 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
CAROLINA is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-217 ATS (-64.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-217 ATS (-64.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-111 ATS (-42.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-171 ATS (-62.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 57-86 ATS (-37.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 5) at GREEN BAY (4 - 3) - 11/6/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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TENNESSEE (4 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 5) - 11/6/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 26-4 ATS (+21.6 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DENVER (6 - 2) at OAKLAND (6 - 2) - 11/6/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 44-77 ATS (-40.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 54-80 ATS (-34.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-48 ATS (-28.8 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Monday, November 7


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BUFFALO (4 - 4) at SEATTLE (4 - 2 - 1) - 11/7/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
BUFFALO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 40-65 ATS (-31.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.