Wednesday's Tip Sheet
January 25, 2017
**Texas Tech at Baylor**
-- As of early this morning, most betting shops had Baylor (18-1 straight up, 9-5 against the spread) listed as a 10.5-point home favorite for this Big 12 showdown in Waco. Scott Drew’s team will be trying to pull into a first-place tie with Kansas atop the conference standings. Like the Bears in their lone league loss, the Jayhawks were smashed at West Virginia last night.
-- Baylor is unbeaten in 11 home games with a 3-4 spread record. The Bears have been double-digit home ‘chalk’ four times, limping to a 1-3 spread record.
-- Since taking its only of the year at WVU, Baylor has won three in a row while going 2-1 ATS. Drew’s team won 62-53 Saturday at TCU as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Bears’ streak of three straight ‘overs’ was halted when the 115 combined points never threatened the 135-point total. Manu Lecomte led the way with 17 points, four rebounds and four assists. Johnathan Motley produced 15 points and eight boards, while Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. was also in double figures with 11 points. Baylor forced the Horned Frogs to shoot at just a 29.3 percent clip from the field.
-- Baylor might be fifth in the Associated Press’s poll, but it is No. 1 in the RPI Rankings. The Bears are a remarkable 9-1 against RPI Top-50 foes, including home scalps of Oregon, Xavier, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State. The Ducks and Musketeers lost by double-digits at the Ferrell Center. Baylor has neutral-court victories over Michigan State, VCU and Louisville, in addition to wins at Kansas State and at TCU.
-- Motley, a senior power forward, is averaging 15.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. Lecomte (12.2 PPG) has a team-best 83 assists compared to 42 turnovers and is draining 3-balls at a 39.3 percent rate. Al Freeman (10.9 PPG) is making 40.0 percent of his 3’s.
-- Texas Tech (14-5 SU, 7-8 ATS) has dropped three of four road games both SU and ATS this season. The Red Raiders picked up their lone road win at Richmond.
-- Texas Tech was favored in every non-conference game this season. Chris Beard’s first team in Lubbock has been an underdog four times, going 1-3 both SU and ATS. His squad is in its second-biggest underdog situation of the year against the Bears. The Red Raiders lost 85-68 at Kansas as 11.5-point ‘dogs in their only other spot as double-digit puppies.
-- Texas Tech fell to 3-4 in Big 12 action with Saturday’s 83-64 loss to Oklahoma St. as a 6.5-point home favorite. The Cowboys buried 11-of-16 from downtown (68.8%) in a blistering shooting display. Phil Forte splashed the nets at a 7-for-8 clip from behind the line. Keenan Evans had a team-best 15 points in the losing effort. Devon Thomas and Zach Smith chipped in 11 points apiece. The Red Raiders were destroyed 29-17 on the boards.
-- Smith (13.1 PPG) is averaging team-highs in rebounding (7.5 RPG), field-goal percentage (58.3%) and blocked shots (1.6 BPG). Evans (14.4) is Texas Tech’s leading scorer, shooting at the following percentages from the field, 3-point land and at the free-throw line, respectively: 49.2%, 47.8% and 80.6%.
-- Texas Tech runs efficient offense, shooting 49.9% from the field to rank seventh in the country.
-- Baylor is ranked seventh in the nation in scoring defense (60.4 PPG), eighth in field-goal-percentage defense (38.0%) and ninth in defensive rebounding (26.8 RPG).
-- The ‘over’ is 9-6 overall for the Red Raiders, 6-3 in their home games.
-- The ‘under’ is 8-5-1 overall for Baylor, 4-3 in its home outings.
-- Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN News.
** UCLA at USC**
-- As of early this morning, most books had UCLA (19-2 SU, 12-9 ATS) installed as a six-point road favorite. The Bruins are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS in their five previous road trips.
-- Steve Alford’s team fell 1.5 games behind the Pac-12 co-leaders, Arizona and Oregon, with Saturday’s 96-85 loss to Arizona as a 5.5-point home favorite. Lonzo Ball had 24 points, six rebounds, two steals and eight assists compared to one turnover in the losing effort. Bryce Alford had 15 points on 4-of-10 shooting from beyond the arc, while Isaac Hamilton contributed 14 points, four boards and four assists.
-- UCLA is mired in a 2-7-1 ATS slump. The Bruins’ only other defeat came on Dec. 28 when they lost 89-87 at Oregon as 1.5-point road ‘chalk.’
-- Alford (17.2) leads UCLA in scoring and is shooting at a 46.4 percent clip from downtown. T.J. Leaf, a 6’10” freshman forward, is averaging 16.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.1 blocked shots per game. Leaf is making 63.6 percent of his attempts from the floor and 48.8 percent from 3-point land. He has been a model of consistently, scoring in double figures ever game and producing nine double-doubles. Ball (14.9 PPG) is the catalyst that makes the Bruins go. The true freshman PG has been every bit the 5-star player that he was advertised to be. Ball (8.2 APG, 5.6 RPG 1.8 SPG) not only stuffs the stat sheet, but he’s making 54.2 percent of his shots and has a 172/48 assists-to-turnovers ratio.
-- UCLA is ranked eighth in the AP and No. 23 in the RPI. The Bruins are 2-2 against the RPI Top 50, but they have eight Top-100 wins, including a 97-92 win at Kentucky. Alford’s team also has neutral-court victories over Nebraska, Ohio State, and Texas A&M.
-- USC (17-4 SU, 9-11 ATS) is in sixth place in the Pac-12 with a 4-4 league record. The Trojans are 10-2 SU and 5-6 ATS at home this year. They’re currently on a 2-10 ATS slide.
-- USC had lost four of its last six games until edging Arizona St. 82-79 on Sunday as an 8.5-point home favorite. Elijah Stewart scored 29 points before fouling out, draining 7-of-13 from 3-point land. Jordan McLaughlin add3ed 18 points and eight assists, while Jonah Matthews finished with 14 points. Nick Rakocevic had 11 points and eight boards.
-- McLaughlin (14.1 PPG) and Stewart (14.1 PPG) share the lead for USC in scoring, with McLaughlin dishing out 5.1 APG. Chimezie Metu, a sophomore ‘big,’ is averaging 13.6 points and 7.5 RPG. Metu has a team-best 35 rejections.
-- USC is still playing without sophomore stretch-4 Bennie Boatwright, who hasn’t played since Nov. 30 after leaving a win at San Diego three minutes into the game with an MCL sprain. The Trojans remain hopeful that Boatwright can return at some point in early February. He was scoring at a 13.5 clip in their first four games before going down against the Toreros.
-- Alford and USC fourth-year head coach Andy Enfield both took over their respective jobs at these rival schools at the same time, going into the 2013-2014 campaign. The first five meetings went to UCLA by double-digit margins. Since then, however, the Trojans have won three in a row over the Bruins by margins of 14, 19 and 24. USC covered in all three wins last year, including a 95-71 pimpslap at the Pac-12 Tournament.
-- The ‘over’ is 7-1 in the last eight UCLA-USC head-to-head meetings. The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last nine encounters.
-- The ‘under’ is 10-9-1 overall for the Trojans, 5-5-1 in their home contests.
-- The ‘over’ is 12-7-1 overall for the Bruins, 3-1-1 in their road assignments. They’ve watched the ‘over’ go 4-0-1 in their last five games regardless of the venue.
-- Tip-off is slated for 11:00 p.m. Eastern on Fox Sports 1.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Florida senior guard Canyon Barry is ‘questionable’ tonight at LSU after spraining his ankle in Saturday’s home loss to Vanderbilt. Barry has averaged 14.8 PPG in the last five games. The Gators are looking to avoid a third straight loss after opening SEC play with a 5-0 record. They were favored by 11.5 points early this morning. This game will come off the board at 9:00 p.m. Eastern with the SEC Network carrying the broadcast.
-- Georgia is a 5.5-point home favorite for tonight’s SEC showdown vs. Alabama at Stegeman Coliseum. The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide will tip at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU. Mark Fox’s team committed five turnovers in its last six possessions to allow a late lead to get away in a one-point loss Saturday at Texas A&M. Those stats made the loss painful enough, but then the way the actual last few seconds played out made it even worse. Trailing by one, J.J. Frazier was dribbling around when the clock inexplicably stopped with more than five seconds remaining. Moments later, Frazier clearly looked at the clock and realized he had plenty of time. He subsequently passed inside to Yante Maten, who went up and was fouled. He would’ve been looking at two free-throw attempts, but some obscure rule states that in these sort of instances, the referees must use a stop watch to time how long the play should’ve taken. In doing so, they determined the game was over and UGA didn’t get the potential game-winning free throws. For a perennial bubble team, that’s a tough one to swallow. We’ll see how UGA responds vs. Avery Johnson’s team, which is coming off an embarrassing blowout loss Saturday at Auburn.
-- Marquette chipped away at a 15-point halftime deficit for the entire second half and then turned it on late to slip past Villanova, 74-72. The Golden Eagles won outright as five-point home underdogs, securing a +200 return for their money-line supporters (paid $200 on $100 bets). Katin Reinhardt, the lights-out 3-ball shooter who is a grad transfer from USC, made huge shots at crunch time in a 19-point effort. He hit 4-of-7 triples and handed out four assists. Luke Fischer added 15 points for the winners.
-- Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan scored 25 points and grabbed 17 rebounds to lift Purdue to an 84-73 win over Michigan St. last night at Breslin Center in East Lansing. The Boilermakers took the cash as 1.5-point road favorites.
-- Tennessee held off Kentucky 82-80 as a 10.5-point home underdog last night at Thompson-Boling Arena, handing the Wildcats their first SEC loss of the year in the process. The Volunteers hooked up their money-line backers with a nice +450 return (paid $450 on $100 wagers). Robert Hubbs III led the way for UT with 25 points and seven rebounds. Admiral Schofield added 15 points and seven boards, while freshman Grant Williams produced 13 points, six rebounds, four blocked shots, three steals and six assists without a turnover.
-- With the win over UK, let’s consider how interesting Tennessee’s resume would be if it included wins at North Carolina and vs. Oregon at the Maui Classic. Remember, the Volunteers led nearly the entire game in Chapel Hill after racing out to leads of 30-15 and 44-36 at halftime. However, they eventually lost a 73-71 decision. UT also lost in overtime to the Ducks. Instead of being 11-9 overall and No. 60 in the RPI, the Vols would be 13-7 overall, 4-4 in the SEC with wins over UK, UNC and Oregon, which would likely leave them in the Top 30 of the RPI.
-- WVU beat Kansas for the fourth straight time at home last night, spanking KU by an 85-69 count as a four-point home ‘chalk.’
-- Tuesday wasn’t a good night for Kevin Stallings. The first-year Pitt head coach saw Louisville’s Donovan Mitchell score a career-high 29 points in U of L’s 106-51 win on the road. The Panthers, who lost their fifth straight game to fall to 1-6 in ACC action, suffered their worst defeat in more than a century. It was the school’s second-worst loss in the 111-year history of the program.
-- London Perrantes dropped 22 points at Joyce Center and shot Virginia to a monster 71-54 win at Notre Dame with a second-half barrage. The Cavaliers won outright in South Bend as 1.5-point road underdogs.
-- Oregon’s Dillon Brooks (13.4 PPG) is expected to be a game-time decision for Thursday’s game at Utah.
