NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday, January 3
Tennessee is 8-5 vs schedule #23; they won SEC by 10 at Texas A&M. Vols are #330 team in experience that is 2-5 vs top 100 teams, beating A&M, East Tennessee State- they’re forcing turnovers 22.1% of time (#37). Arkansas beat Tennessee twice LY, by 18-10 points after having won 8 of previous 10 series games. Razorbacks lost five of last six visits to Knoxville, with four of five losses by 7+ points. Arkansas had won 8 in row before losing SEC home opener by 9 to Florida; Hogs are 3-2 vs top 100 teams- they lost by 14 at Minnesota in only true road game.
Florida is 10-3 vs schedule #9, winning at Arkansas by 9 in SEC opener. Gators are experience team #72; they’re forcing turnovers 22.8% of time (#25). Florida beat Ole Miss twice LY by 9-5 points, after losing four in row to Rebels, all by 4 or less points. Ole Miss lost six of last seven visits here, with four of six losses by 10 or less points. Rebels are 1-4 vs top 100 teams with only win over Memphis; they lost by 5 at Va Tech in their only true road game this season. Florida coach White was an Ole Miss PG in his college days.
Eastern Michigan won five of last seven games with Central Michigan; Chippewas lost three of last four visits to Ypsilanti, with losses by 6-22-15 points. Eastern forces turnovers 23.3% of time (#13) but thats about all they do well defensively; Eagles are 2-5 vs top 200 teams, with only wins over Omaha/Long Beach State. Central is #1 team in country at not turning ball over; they won seven of last eight games, are 3-1 in true road games, with only loss by 19 at Illinois. CMU is 10-3 vs schedule #296; they’re #164 experience team but they do not sub much at all.
Northern Illinois is 5-5 vs schedule #288; they also have three non-D-I wins. Huskies have #331 eFG%, shoot just 28.6% on arc, 44.2% inside arc- they do have #81 eFG% defense. Underdogs covered four of last five Northern Illinois-Miami games; Huskies won two of last three visits here, four of last six series games overall. Miami is 7-6 vs schedule #337; they’re 1-5 vs top 200 teams, with only win by 3 over IUPUI. RedHawks are #332 team that subs a lot but shoots only 32.8% on arc- they’re 6-2 at home, losing to Delaware/Northern Kentucky.
St Joe’s just lost 20-point scorer Newkirk for year, huge blow for them. Hawks won four of last five games but this is their first full game without Newkirk. Hawks’ bench had #248 minutes, so not lot of quality depth to step in for a key player. Rhode Island won last three games by 11-11-34 points; they’re 3-4 vs teams in top 150, forcing turnovers 20.6% of time. Hawks won seven of last eight games with URI, losing twice LY by 5-9 points, but now Rams are much the better team. St Joe’s won three of last four visits here.
North Carolina won its last eight games with Clemson, last five by 9+ points; Tar Heels won last three visits to Littlejohn by 2-9-24 points. UNC got upset at Ga Tech in ACC opener Saturday; they split last four games overall, are 1-2 in true road games, also losing at Kentucky, with win by 15 at Hawai’i. Clemson won ACC opener at Wake Forest Saturday; they’ve won nine games in row, last four vs top 80 teams. Tigers are 7-2 vs top 100 teams; they’re #27 experience team that is forcing turnovers 23% of time (#20).
Indiana allowed 82 pts/game in losing its last two games to Nebraska/Louisville; Hoosiers are 2-3 vs top 100 teams, with wins over Kansas/North Carolina, but they’re #311 experience team that is turning ball over 21.8% of time (#307). Wisconsin won its last eight games with three of them vs top 70 teams; Badgers split pair of true road games, losing by 12 at Creighton, winning at Marquette- this is their first road game in 24 days. Home side won last five Wisconsin-Indiana games; Badgers lost 75-72/59-58 in last two visits to Bloomington.
Dayton is 15-2 in its last 17 games with St Bonaventure, winning last three played here by 3-17-6 points. Flyers won eight of last nine games; they won only true road game at Alabama by 5, lost to Northwestern in Chicago (not Wildcats’ home court) by 3. Dayton is #46 experience team that forces turnovers 22.3% of time (#31). Bonnies are 9-4 vs schedule #220; they won eight of last ten games, are 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Florida/NC-Wilmington by total of eight points. St Bonaventure is making 39% of its 3-pointers (#46).
Alabama won six of last seven games with Mississippi State, with last three meetings decided by total of seven points. Crimson Tide won last three visits to Starkville by 32-4-2 points. Bama is 7-5 vs schedule #194; they’re 0-2 in true road games, losing at both Texas/Oregon by nine points each. Crimson Tide is shooting just 31.8% on arc. Bulldogs are 9-3 vs schedule #344; they’re least-experienced team in country but Howland is very good coach. State is 1-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 25-14-2 points; their only top 100 win was by 12 over Boise State.
Kansas is 10-2 in its last 12 games with K-State, sweeping three games LY by 18-9-22 points. Wildcats lost last ten visits here, with nine of ten losses by 17+ points. Jayhawks won its last 12 games since losing season opener to Indiana- they won Big X opener by 6 at TCU, tough game. Kansas is 12-1 vs schedule #51; they’ve got #5 eFG%, are shooting 40.9% on arc (#8). K-State won its only true road game by 3 at Saint Louis; they’re 12-1 vs schedule #34, so obviously this is a huge step up in class for them. Wildcats’ only loss was to Maryland by a point.
Things have flipped in Big X; TCU is a double digit favorite over Oklahoma, despite losing six in a row to Sooners, all by 7+ points. Horned Frogs lost Big X opener by 6 to Kansas; they’re 1-2 vs top 100 teams with win by 9 over Illinois State. TCU is forcing turnovers 22.2% of time (#32); coach Dixon has given Frog fans hope, but asking them to cover as double digit favorite is bit of a reach. Oklahoma is inexperienced (#321) team that lost its last four games, all to top 100 teams, three by 5 or less points. Oklahoma lost only true road tilt by 20 at Wisconsin.
Last three Texas A&M-Kentucky games went OT; Wildcats won four of last five series games- teams split last two games played here (last one in ’14). Aggies are #293 experience team that is 8-4 vs schedule #293- they’re 1-4 vs top 100 teams with all four losses by 10 or less points- their only top 100 win was by 3 over Va Tech. Kentucky is at home for first time in four weeks; they’re 4-2 vs top 100 teams, winning SEC opener by 23 at Ole Miss. Wildcats are experience team #347 that is playing pace #9- they force turnovers 21.7% of time.
West Virginia starts Big X play every year with western swing- they won by 17 at Oklahoma St in Big X opener Friday night, now visit Lubbock. WVU won its last six games with Texas Tech, covering last four. Mountaineers won last four visits here, by 16-3-11-4 points. West Virginia won its last eight games, winning by 9 at Virginia in its other true road game. Texas Tech is #43 at protecting ball, a must vs Huggins’ team; they lost Big X opener 63-56 at Iowa State after they led by 14 in second half. Tech’s other loss was to Auburn by 2 on a neutral floor.
