Cnotes 2016 Canadian Football League Picks-Trends-News !

[CNOTES]

Saturday, July 23


Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (2-1 SU, 0-2-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -4
Total: 56


Game Overview


The Tiger-Cats will be looking to stay perfect on the road this season both SU and ATS. In two road wins this season, they have outscored both Toronto and Montreal by a combined 46 points while posting a total of 73 points on the scoreboard. In two stunning losses at home as favorites, they managed to score a combined 27 points. Jeremiah Masoli continues to run the offense with quarterback Zach Collaros still on the mend and he is ranked fourth in the league in total passing yards with 1,141.


Edmonton has had little trouble putting points on the board this season with Mike Reilly under center with an average of 32 points over its first three games. The problem in the Eskimos’ 2-1 start has been a defense that has given up an average of 32.3 points to its opponents. Edmonton has failed to cover ATS in five of their last seven home games and it has gone 1-4 ATS in its last five games in Week 5.


Betting Trends


The road team is 4-2 SU in the last six meetings and it has covered ATS in all six games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of those six matchups.


-------------------




Saturday, July 23


Hamilton @ Edmonton


Game 125-126
July 23, 2016 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Hamilton
107.816
Edmonton
114.775
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
by 7
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
by 4
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Edmonton
(-4); Over


-------------------




Saturday, July 23


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAMILTON (2 - 2) at EDMONTON (2 - 1) - 7/23/2016, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 2-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 2-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, July 23


7:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. EDMONTON
Hamilton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Hamilton is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Edmonton is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Hamilton


--------------------

Hamilton (2-2) @ Edmonton (2-1)-- TiCats/Eskimos split their last eight series games, going 2-2 in each stadium. Three of last four series games stayed under. Road team won all four Hamilton games, with TiCats winning 42-20/31-7 in their two road games- only one of their four games was decided by less than 22 points. Two of Edmonton's three games (both home games) went to OT; Eskimos split those two games, then won road opener 20-16 at Winnipeg last week.


------------------------------


CFL


Saturday, July 23


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday's CFL betting preview and odds: Tiger-Cats at Eskimos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Mike reilly and the Eskimos can move into 1st place in the West Division with a win over the Ti-Cats. Edmonton is currently 5-pt chalk.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Edmonton Eskimos (-5, 55)


The Edmonton Eskimos look to move into first place in the West Division when they host the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Saturday. The Eskimos have won back-to-back games, including a 20-16 road victory over the Winnipeg in Week 4, and can join the idle BC Lions at the top of the division standings by avenging a 49-20 loss to the Tiger-Cats at Commonwealth Stadium last season.


Edmonton is 6-1 at home since the loss to Hamilton on Aug. 21, 2015 and hopes to notch its seventh win in its last 10 games against East Division opponents. The Tiger-Cats notched an impressive 31-7 win against the Montreal Alouettes to pull within three points of the East Division-leading Ottawa Redblacks. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli struggled to get the offence moving but will get the starting nod once more as Zach Collaros, who returned to practice last week after tearing his ACL against Edmonton on Sept. 19, 2015, is "extremely unlikely" to play, according to Hamilton head coach Kent Austin. The Tiger-Cats boast the CFL's best passing defence and hope to put the clamps on Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly, who has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his last six regular-season games.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TSN


LINE HISTORY: The Eskimos opened as 4-point home favorites and bettors quickly pushed that number to -4.5, where it remained for most of the week. The line moved even further in Edmonton's favor recently moving to Eskimos -5.


Meannwhile the total has dropped a point and a half since opening. The number opened at 56.5 and almot immediately moved to 56, then to 55.5 and finally to 55, where the number hasn't moved for a few days. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (2-2, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U): Brandon Banks returned a a punt 86 yards for his ninth career kick-return touchdown against the Alouettes to move into fifth place on the league's all-time list. Defensive end Adrian Tracy was named one of the CFL Top Performers of the Week after recording a career-high 11 tackles, two sacks and two forced fumbles in the win over Montreal. "I was joking with the guys that I have to step up to the plate," Tracy told reporters. "Any time you have a game like that it gets the monkey off your back."


ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (2-1, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Reilly continues to pick apart opposing defences as he passed for 465 yards and two touchdowns in the win against the Blue Bombers. Offensive lineman Matt O'Donnell (leg), linebacker J.C. Sherritt (undisclosed) and defensive back Pat Watkins (undisclosed) suffered injuries against Winnipeg and sat out practice on Tuesday, but they are expected to suit up against Hamilton. "They are on the mend right now and will be fine for this week," Edmonton head coach Jason Maas told reporters. "Everyone is a little beat up this time of year."

TRENDS:


* Tiger-Cats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven versus a team with a winning record.
* Eskimos are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games at home.
* Over is 4-1 in Tiger-Cats last five road games.
* Over is 6-1 in Eskimos last seven home games.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Edmonton.


CONSENSUS: The public is taking the home team and the points in this matchup with 62 percent of wagers on the Eskimos. As for the total, bettors are on the under with 55 percent of wagers on it.

EXTRA POINTS:


* The Eskimos have split the last six meetings with the Tiger-Cats.
* Hamilton has turned the ball over a league-worst 11 times.
* Reilly has thrown for over 400 yards three times in his career.

 

[CNOTES]

7/22- Friday's Totals: 0 - 2


June July Totals


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 7-11-0 38.89% -2550


O/U Picks 9-7-2 56.25% +650


SATURDAY, JULY 23


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


HAM at EDM 07:00 PM


EDM -5.0


O 55.0

 

[CNOTES]

7/23- Saturday's Totals: 1 - 1


June July Totals


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 7-12-0 36.84% -3100


O/U Picks 10-7-2 58.82% +1150

 

[CNOTES]

Monday, July 25


Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Toronto -3 ½
Total: 47

Game Overview

Alouettes have only managed to score a grand total of 42 points in their first three games. They turned to Rakeem Cato at quarterback in last week’s loss to Hamilton for Kevin Glenn, but he was rather ineffective with just 203 yards passing on 18 completions. Glenn is still listed as questionable for next Monday’s game with an eye injury. Montreal has been averaging 80 yards a game on the ground.


Toronto is now 0-2 (SU and ATS) at its new digs at BMO Field with a total of 20 points scored in each of the two losses. Defensively, the Argonauts allowed a total of 72 points in those two games. Overall, this offense is averaging 23.8 points over its first four games, but it is only generating 309.8 total yards including just 52.5 yards a game on the ground. Ricky Ray has thrown for 1000 yards and six touchdowns so far.


Betting Trends


This East Division clash has been dominated by the road team the past several seasons with a SU 9-1 run in the last 10 meetings. Montreal has covered ATS in four of the last six games and the total has stayed UNDER in all six contests.


--------------------


Monday, July 25


Montreal @ Toronto


Game 127-128
July 25, 2016 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Montreal
109.474
Toronto
112.897
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 3 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 7
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Montreal
(+7); Over


-----------------


CFL
Long Sheet


Week 5


Monday, July 25


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MONTREAL (1 - 2) at TORONTO (2 - 2) - 7/25/2016, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CFL


Week 5


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Monday, July 25


7:30 PM
MONTREAL vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 8 games
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal
Toronto is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games




-----------------------


CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Montreal (1-2) @ Toronto (2-2)-- Road team won 10 of last 11 games in strange series; Alouettes won last seven games in Toronto, with last loss here in 2010. Underdogs are 7-3 SU in last seven series tilts. Under is 12-2 in last 14 series games. Montreal lost 28-13/31-7 at home last two weeks; they won only road game 22-14 at Winnipeg-- all three of their games stayed under total. Argonauts lost 42-20/30-20 in their two home games. Visitor won all four of their games this year. Home teams are 2-13-1 against spread in CFL this year-- how long can this trend continue?


------------------------


CFL


Sunday, July 24




Road teams now 16-3 ATS Underdogs now 13-5 ATS




So with Ti-Cats win over Eskimos tonight ANOTHER road dog covered in the CFL. Road pups are now an incredible 11-1 ATS this season. Whoa.

 

[CNOTES]

WEST DIVISION


RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV


1 BC 4 3 1 0 6 102 73 1-1-0 2-0-0 2-0-0


2 Calgary 4 2 1 1 5 113 86 1-0-0 1-1-1 2-1-0


3 Edmonton 4 2 2 0 4 127 134 1-2-0 1-0-0 2-0-0


4 Saskatchewan 4 1 3 0 2 110 138 1-2-0 0-1-0 0-2-0


5 Winnipeg 5 1 4 0 2 98 135 0-3-0 1-1-0 0-3-0



EAST DIVISION


RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV


1 Ottawa 5 3 1 1 7 158 126 0-0-1 3-1-0 2-0-0


2 Hamilton 5 3 2 0 6 137 114 0-2-0 3-0-0 2-0-0


3 Toronto 4 2 2 0 4 95 103 0-2-0 2-0-0 0-2-0


4 Montreal 3 1 2 0 2 42 73 0-2-0 1-0-0 0-2-0

 

[CNOTES]

CFL


Monday, July 25


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday's CFL betting preview and odds: Alouettes at Argonauts
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Montreal hopes that the return of quarterback Kevin Glenn, who missed the loss to Hamilton with eye inflammation, can kickstart an offence that is averaging a CFL-low 14 points per game.


Montreal Alouettes at Toronto Argonauts (-5.5, 45.5)


The Toronto Argonauts look to notch their first home win against the Montreal Alouettes in more than five years Monday. Toronto has dropped seven consecutive home games to the Alouettes, including a 34-2 loss last season, and hopes that a switch from Rogers Centre to BMO Field this year, and a 12-day rest between games, can help the Argonauts record their first home victory in the series since Aug. 14, 2010.


Toronto is coming off a 30-20 defeat to the Ottawa Redblacks on July 13 and hopes to beat an East Division rival for the first time this season. The offensively challenged Alouettes failed to score a touchdown in the 31-7 home loss to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in Week 4. Montreal has dropped two straight games by an average margin of 19.5 points and hopes that the return of quarterback Kevin Glenn, who missed the loss to Hamilton with eye inflammation, can kickstart an offence that is averaging a CFL-low 14 points per game. "We have to find a way to win," Montreal coach and general manager Jim Popp told reporters. "We win in Week 1 and everybody loves you but you lose two in a row and everybody can't stand you."


TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TSN, RDS, ESPN2

LINE HISTORY: The Argos opened as 6.5-point favorites at home but the spread has come down a full point to settle at -5.5 at the time of publication of this preview. The total opned at 44.5 and took a full point leap higher to 45.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Linebacker Bear Woods, who has recorded 18 tackles and two sacks, missed practice earlier in the week with a knee injury but is expected to recover in time to face Toronto. Wide receiver Nik Lewis has been reportedly fined by Montreal after unleashing a profanity-laced tirade criticizing the team's performance in the loss to Hamilton. "I'm just out here trying to motivate my team to be better," Lewis told reporters. "If we go out and play better this week, then it was worth it."

ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U): Defensive back Akwasi Owusu-Ansah will miss the rest of the season with a pectoral injury while safety Jermaine Gabriel suffered his second concussion in four games in the loss to Ottawa and is ruled out for Monday. Cory Greenwood, who is tied for the team lead with 22 tackles, suffered a hand injury against the Redblacks and his status is uncertain. Toronto signed defensive end Michael Buchanan on Wednesday and quarterback Adrian McPherson returns for his second tour of duty in Toronto after being released prior to the 2016 season.

TRENDS:


* Alouettes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Argonauts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. East.
* Under is 5-0 in Alouettes last 5 games in July.
* Under is 11-1 in Argonauts last 12 Monday games.
* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the favorite Toronto Argonauts at a rate of 58 percent and Over is getting the majority of the action on the total also at 58 percent.


EXTRA POINTS:


* Toronto has dropped its first two games at BMO Field after spending the previous 27 years at Rogers Centre.
* Montreal has been held to three touchdowns in its first three games.
* The Argonauts and Alouettes have split their last eight meetings.

 

[CNOTES]

PREVIEW


ALS TRAVEL TO TORONTO FOR MONDAY NIGHT DATE WITH ARGOS

TORONTO — The Montreal Alouettes and Toronto Argonauts will both feel they have a statement to make on Monday night in Toronto at BMO Field. Both teams enter the Week 5 matchup with a sour taste in their mouths; the Als trying to fix a sputtering offence quickly off the back of a 31-7 home defeat against Hamilton last week, and the Argos licking their wounds after a fourth-quarter collapse doomed them to a 30-20 loss against Ottawa at home in Week 4.


With Ottawa having fallen in Saskatchewan earlier in Week 5 and Hamilton facing a tricky contest in Edmonton, both teams know that Monday night’s victor will be thrust right back into the picture in the CFL’s competitive East Division.


Home teams have been woeful, specifically in the East, thus far in 2016 and the Argos are no different: 2-0 away from BMO Field and 0-2 at their new stadium. In keeping with the trend, Montreal is 1-0 on the road and 0-2 at home.


The Alouettes (1-2) need a big play from somebody, anybody.


Montreal’s offence sputtered last week against the Ticats. Rakeem Cato was 18-of-25 for just over 200 unremarkable yards, Vernon Adams Jr. wasn’t much better in relief and the Als’ running game was ineffective.


With the likes of receiver S.J. Green and running back Tyrell Sutton out long-term — the former’s season is over — Montreal needs to find a way to move the chains consistently.


That responsibility will this week fall on the shoulders of veteran Kevin Glenn, who moves back under centre after sitting out last week’s loss to Hamilton with an eye injury.


History has not been kind to the Als when Green is out of the lineup: Montreal is 0-4 since 2014 in games that its star slotback has missed, averaging just 14.8 points per game and one offensive touchdown.


“Our young players have to rise up,” Als receivers coach Jacques Chapdelaine told MontrealAlouettes.com. “Don’t underestimate them. Our practices have given these players a chance to really improve.”


As for the defensive looks his team might see, Chapdelaine was transparent.


“The (Argos) defence is coached by Rich Stubler, who has several years of experience in the league,” said Chapdelaine. “It relies a lot on the speed of the players; their complexity is in their simplicity. Often, it looks as though they are executing the same play, but they add a variation to it.”


Through four weeks of play and three games, the Als offence had put up a league-worst 42 points, thrown for a league-worst 848 passing yards and, once again league-low, two pass touchdowns.


There will be a number of familiar faces for Montreal on the opposite side; Argos running back Brandon Whitaker previously played in 51 games (2009-14) as a member of the Als, while Toronto offensive coordinator Marcus Brady served as Montreal offensive coordinator Anthony Calvillo’s backup for three years (2006-08).


“(It’s) just going to be a dogfight,” said Als linebacker Winston Venable. “They’ll be real hungry to get that W, so we’ve got to be prepared for them to do anything they can to get that.”


On the Toronto side of the equation, the Argos (2-2) are looking to right the ship after a pair of disappointing home losses to open up BMO Field. Off the back of a 30-20 home loss against Ottawa in Week 4, Head Coach Scott Milanovich told Argonauts.ca that his team is ready to hit the field and set the record straight.


“It’s been a long week; we had to stew and brew, and the players are anxious to get back on the field,” said Milanovich. “Our offence needs to play better — we need to stay on the field and put more points on the board than we have been.”


Argos quarterback Ricky Ray, off to a relatively quiet start in 2016, believes now is the time for Toronto to shake off its home jitters.


“It’s come down to a handful of plays where we just haven’t executed,” said the 36 year-old pivot. “That’s what we’re trying to clean up — we just haven’t played well enough at home in our first two games, shooting ourselves in the foot a little bit.”


Canadian special-teamer and 2016 CFL Draft pick Llevi Noel has been a bright spot thus far in 2016 for the Argos, having recorded a league-high eight special-teams tackles through four games.


The importance of making a statement in a home game against the limping Als isn’t lost on Coach Milanovich.


“They’ll be desperate, I’m sure, (but) I don’t know if they’ll be any more desperate than we are,” said the fifth-year head coach. “It’s not like we’re 6-0; we’re 2-2 and we let one get away last week.”


Milanovich has his offence ready to expect the unexpected against the unorthodox Als defence on Monday.


“They’ve mixed it up almost every game this year, changing coverages depending on which team they’re playing,” said Milanovich. “We’ll have to figure it out early what their plan is against us — (sometimes) they’ll drop a bunch of guys (or) they’ll zone blitz you — it’ll be interesting how they’ll play us.”

By the Numbers


-30 – Montreal’s point differential in the fourth quarter thus far in 2016


3 – Touchdown receptions for Toronto wideout Vidal Hazelton


14 – Sacks allowed by the Argos, second-most in the CFL


96:49 – League-low time of possession enjoyed by the Als this season

The Skinny


Both sides will feel they have a chance to gain some momentum on Monday night in Toronto; the Argos are facing the league’s most injury-ravaged team, while the Als are facing a team that’s yet to win at home. Both defences have come up with big plays at points this season: Expect a low-scoring trench battle.


If Kevin Glenn can turn Montreal’s sputtering offence around at BMO Field, the Als will have every shot of walking away with the road win.


Kickoff is slated for 7:30 p.m. ET and can be seen live on TSN or followed online via CFL.ca GameTracker.

 

[CNOTES]

7/23- Saturday's Totals: 1 - 1


June July Totals


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 7-12-0 36.84% -3100


O/U Picks 10-7-2 58.82% +1150

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, JULY 25

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


MTL at TOR 07:30 PM

TOR -4.5


U 46.0

 

[CNOTES]

CFL Betting Recap - Week 5
July 26, 2016




League Betting Notes


-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 5


-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 5


-- Road teams posted a 4-0 SU record in Week 4


-- Road teams posted a 3-0-1 ATS record in Week 4


-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 4




Team Betting Notes


-- Ottawa (3-1-1) suffered its first loss of the season. That part isn't so shocking, as they were due to lose eventually. However, it was WHO they lost to. Saskatchewan (1-3) finally earned a win in its fourth try, edging the RedBlacks 30-29 at home. It was the third consecutive 'over' result for the Roughriders.


-- The RedBlacks are now just 1-1-1 SU against the West Division, and they're 0-2 ATS in their past two against the other division. The 'over' result was their first since Week 1, snapping a 2-0-1 'under' streak.


-- Edmonton (2-2) was tripped up 37-31 at home against Hamilton (3-2), as the Eskimos defense let them down again. So far the Esks have allowed 36 or more points in three of their first four games. As such, it's no surprise the 'over' is 3-1 through Edmonton's four games.


-- The Tigers-Cats haven't been able to figure it out at home, but they certainly have been comfortable on the road. The Ti-Cats are 0-2 SU/ATS at home, and 3-0 SU/ATS on the road this season. Remember that Aug. 3 at Winnipeg, and Aug. 13 at B.C. Lions, in their next two outings.


-- The Blue Bombers have been terrible, going 1-4 SU/ATS through five outings. They're especially poor at home, as the Bombers are 0-3 SU/ATS while averaging just 16.0 points per game and allowing 25.0 points per contest in Winnipeg.


-- Toronto (3-2) dumped Montreal (1-3), as the Alouettes haven't won since June 24 in Winnipeg. The Alouettes have had a power outage on offense, averaging just 12.3 points per game over the past three, all non-covers. The 'under' is also 3-1 this season for Montreal.

 

[CNOTES]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 6
July 26, 2016




The early race for a title in each CFL division tightened up with last week’s results. Calgary improved its position in the West standings with last Thursday’s 33-18 victory against Winnipeg as a five-point road favorite. On Friday night, Saskatchewan stunned Ottawa 30-29 as a 6 ½-point underdog at home to post its first win of the year.


This past Saturday’s action in the CFL featured a big interdivision showdown between Hamilton and Edmonton with the Tiger-Cats prevailing as four-point road underdogs in a 37-31 upset. Week 5 closed things out on Monday night with Toronto knocking off Montreal 30-17 as a 4 ½-point favorite at home. Here is a look at Week 6 in the CFL.




Thursday, July 28


Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (2-2 SU, 0-3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -9 ½
Total: 54 ½


Game Overview


The Blue Bombers have dug themselves an early hole and now there are some question marks at the quarterback position after Matt Nichols replaced Drew Willy late in the game last week against Calgary. Nichols was able to find Weston Dressler with a scoring strike to close the deficit to within eight points, but Winnipeg’s defense allowed the Stampeders to expand their lead to 15 points by the closing gun.


Edmonton has already lost half as many games as it did all last season in its run to a Grey Cup title. You cannot place all that much blame on the Eskimos’ offense for last week’s loss after building a 31-20 lead over Hamilton heading into the fourth quarter. Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly ended that game with 354 yards passing and three touchdown throws while completing an impressive 76.2 percent of his 42 passing attempts.


Betting Trends


The Blue Bombers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against the Eskimos and they have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against Edmonton. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings.




Friday, July 29


Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF


Game Overview


The Roughriders posted their first straight-up victory of the year in dramatic fashion on game-winning 53-yard field goal with just over a minute to play. The biggest storyline in last week’s upset was the play of Mitchell Gale in his first CFL start at quarterback for an injured Darian Durant. Gale threw for 354 yards and a score including eight completions to Naaman Roosevelt for 182 yards. Darian remains questionable to return to action this Friday night.


Montreal gave up 21 points in the second quarter of Monday night’s rout to help seal its third loss in four games. The Alouettes have been outscored 103-59 in those first four contests and the prospect for any kind of quick turnaround does not look good. Kevin Glenn was back under center for Montreal and despite the fact that he completed 24-of-28 attempts for 285 yards, he still could not get his team in the end zone more than once through the air.


Betting Trends


The Alouettes have covered ATS in six of the last eight meetings in this interdivision clash and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in 16 of the last 21 meetings in Montreal.



British Columbia Lions (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (2-1-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -5
Total: 49


Game Overview


The Lions have carved out the early lead in the West Division behind an offense that is averaging over 400 total yards a game with a solid balance between the pass and the run. They have also been stingy on the other side of the ball behind a defense that has only allowed an average of 18.3 points a game. They are coming off a bye week following a 40-27 victory against Saskatchewan in Week 4 as 1 ½-point underdogs on the road.


Calgary has now covered the spread in its last three games with the total going OVER in all three contests. Bo Levi Mitchell continued to light things up through the air with 310 yards passing and three touchdown throws in last week’s win against Winnipeg. He completed 70.7 percent of his 41 attempts while connecting with seven different receivers. Jerome Messam paced the Stampeders’ ground game with 65 yards on 13 carries.


Betting Trends


Head-to-head in this West Division rivalry, the Lions won the first meeting this season 20-18 as 2 ½-point home underdogs, but they have gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games against the Stampeders. The total has gone OVER the closing line in five of the last seven meetings in Calgary.




Sunday, July 31


Toronto Argonauts (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Ottawa RedBlacks (3-1-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa OFF
Total: OFF


Game Overview


Toronto has now won three of its last four games both SU and against the spread including wins on the road against Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Credit Ricky Ray for Monday night’s win after throwing for three touchdowns. Ray left the game in the fourth quarter with a leg injury and right now it looks like Logan Kilgore might get the start on Sunday after coming into this past Monday’s game as his replacement.


The RedBlacks will look to quickly bounce back from their first SU loss of the season, but they may have to do it without the services of their starting quarterback Trevor Harris. He left last week’s game early in the first quarter with a leg injury and his status for Sunday remains up in the air. Harris has been one of the CFL’s top passers this season in both yards (1,499) and touchdowns (9). If he cannot go, we may see the return of Henry Burris at quarterback after missing the first five games with a hand injury.


Betting Trends


Ottawa drew first blood in this season’s series with a 30-20 victory on July 13 as a one-point road favorite. Toronto still has a SU 4-2 edge against the RedBlacks over the last six meetings and the total has gone OVER in three of the last four games.

 

[CNOTES]

CFL
Dunkel


Week 6




Thursday, July 28


Winnipeg @ Edmonton


Game 301-302
July 28, 2016 @ 9:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
106.694
Edmonton
119.239
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
by 12 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
by 9 1/2
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Edmonton
(-9 1/2); Under




Friday, July 29


Saskatchewan @ Montreal


Game 303-304
July 29, 2016 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Saskatchewan
107.905
Montreal
106.355
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Saskatchewan
by 1 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal
by 1
50
Dunkel Pick:
Saskatchewan
(+1); Under


BC Lions @ Calgary


Game 305-306
July 29, 2016 @ 10:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
BC Lions
113.941
Calgary
121.017
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 7
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 5
49
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-5); Over




Sunday, July 31


Toronto @ Ottawa


Game 307-308
July 31, 2016 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
114.943
Ottawa
120.399
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ottawa
by 5 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ottawa
by 8
49
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+8); Over

 

[CNOTES]

CFL
Long Sheet


Week 6


Thursday, July 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (1 - 4) at EDMONTON (2 - 2) - 7/28/2016, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Friday, July 29


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 3) at MONTREAL (1 - 3) - 7/29/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 121-87 ATS (+25.3 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in July games since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 2-2 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BRITISH COLUMBIA (3 - 1) at CALGARY (2 - 1 - 1) - 7/29/2016, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 54-28 ATS (+23.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 89-61 ATS (+21.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games off a win over a division rival since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Sunday, July 31

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (3 - 2) at OTTAWA (3 - 1 - 1) - 7/31/2016, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing on a Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 4-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 3-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

CFL


Week 6


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, July 28


9:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Winnipeg is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg



Friday, July 29


7:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. MONTREAL
Saskatchewan is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Montreal's last 16 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
Montreal is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games


10:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games when playing Calgary
British Columbia is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games
Calgary is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Calgary's last 12 games at home



Sunday, July 31


7:30 PM
TORONTO vs. OTTAWA
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 11 games
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Ottawa8-2-1 SU in its last 11 games

 

[CNOTES]

CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Thursday, July 28




Winnipeg (1-4) @ Edmonton (2-2)– Bombers (+3.5) lost 20-16 at home to Edmonton two weeks ago, giving up winning TD in last 1:00 in game where Eskimos outgained them 517-347. Winnipeg scored only 3 points in second half. Edmonton won last seven series games, winning last seven here, last four by combined score of 140-29. Eskimos are 2-2 after blowing 24-6 halftime lead in horrific home loss to Hamilton last week- two of their four games went to OT. Under is 3-1-1 in Winnipeg games this year; three of four Edmonton games went over.

 

[CNOTES]

NICHOLS FACES FORMER TEAM AS BOMBERS, ESKS CLASH ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL


EDMONTON — Thursday night’s matchup at Commonwealth Stadium is a veritable do-or-die for both parties involved. The hometown Eskimos are coming off one of the biggest collapses in recent CFL history in Week 5, while the visiting Winnipeg Blue Bombers are turning to backup QB Matt Nichols to right a waterlogged ship.


The Esks are a .500 football club at the moment, having struggled both at home (1-2 record) and defensively (134 points allowed, 7th), and will be reeling from last week’s 31-point collapse at home against Hamilton.


Winnipeg head coach Mike O’Shea has opted for backup Matt Nichols after another disappointing home loss, a 30-18 defeat that was never really close, against the Stampeders.


Some would say Jeremiah Masoli found his groove, others would say the Eskimos (2-2) defence fell asleep at the wheel. Maybe it was a combination of both.


Whatever the reason, the visiting Ticats put up 31 unanswered points in the second half last week, largely on the strength of 391 passing yards and Masoli’s consecutive completions record. Edmonton’s pass rush was once again ineffective — the Esks defence has come up with a league-low five sacks — and that allowed Masoli the time to finally get the Tabbies offence rolling.


The good news for the Esks is that, last time around against Winnipeg, they were able to largely neutralize the Bombers offence in a 20-16 Week 3 win. Though Matt Nichols will start in place of Drew Willy for Winnipeg, Edmonton’s defensive approach will remain the same.


“It won’t make a difference,” Eskimos defensive end Marcus Howard told Esks.com. “We just have to go out there as a defence, compete and just finish. We’re leaving a lot of plays out there. It comes down to the players executing.”


Despite his team’s roller coaster start, Edmonton head coach Jason Maas remains optimistic about his team’s potential.


“We’re four games in with a lot of young players,” said Maas. “We still have that championship makeup, we just need to (play) for 60 minutes and we’ll get better outcomes.”


Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly has done Mike Reilly-type things early in 2016, throwing for 1,580 passing yards and 10 touchdowns through five weeks — both league-high figures.


Reilly’s top two targets have been longtime go-to receiver Adarius Bowman, who’s hauled in 543 receiving yards and four touchdown receptions, and CFL sophomore Derel Walker, a Texas A&M product who has already racked up 494 receiving yards.


“I’ve been on Winnipeg’s side before, I’ve been there where you’ve got to get it done,” said Bowman. “From the offensive standpoint as a team, we have a lot to prove. I’m sorry they’re having those problems over there, but we’ve got to fix ours (and) we’re ready.”


“You got to show up every week. This is the CFL, at no point is one team (better) than another,” continued Bowman. “We can just control what we do, and as long as we do that, I think the odds are in our favour.”


Reilly echoed his receiver’s sentiment.


“We can get back on the field and make amends,” said Reilly. “We win together, we lose together. We do things right as a team, we do things wrong as a team.”


The Edmonton gunslinger, who will go up against a young Winnipeg secondary affected by injuries, emphasized his team’s cohesion and unity.


“Good for us it’s a short week,” said Reilly. “We’ve been trying to correct our mistakes the first four games and this game will be no different; the one thing I do know is guys we have in the locker room understand football is a team game.”


Rookie Esks linebacker Kenny Ladler will be looking to build on a positive start to his rookie season.


On the flip side of Thursday’s matchup, the sense that Winnipeg’s season is entering desperation time is palpable.


The Bombers (1-4) have struggled on offence, having given up the league’s most sacks (16) and turned the ball over more times (12) than anybody else.


Following another loss to Calgary last week, head coach Mike O’Shea has chosen to hand the Week 5 start to backup QB Matt Nichols.


“He’s a veteran presence, he has more command over a huddle or situation than any rookie would,” O’Shea told BlueBombers.com. “It’s a three-phase sport, football. It’s a game where everybody’s contributing; we need the defence to get off the field quicker, not give up that many yards so that our special teams unit can provide better returns and give our offence better position.”


Nichols’s familiarity with the Eskimos, a team he spent two and a half seasons with, could play to his advantage on Thursday. The Eastern Washington alum has thrown for over 5,000 yards and 31 touchdowns in his CFL career, and will have the chance to best his old team in his first start of the 2016 season on Thursday.


The mood within Bombers ranks is one of anticipation entering Thursday’s highly-anticipated rematch with Edmonton.


“Anger and frustration is an emotional response, and you look at ways to make your game better,” said Winnipeg defensive lineman Jamaal Westerman. “I don’t know if it’s an emotional anger, (but) right now we’re 100 per cent locked and loaded on this game.”


The losses have piled up for the Bombers, and Westerman believes consistency is their key to stopping the trend.


“We have to continue to stop the big play and make the tackles when they’re needed,” said the Rutgers alum. “We’re at times flying around, making plays in the backfield. Other times, we’re missing tackles: We have to be more consistent. In football, if you’re able to be consistent throughout the game, you’ll typically come out on top.”


Winnipeg’s run game will be a point of intrigue on Thursday Night Football; national running back Andrew Harris has had trouble finding room to run, even in a down year for rushing throughout the league.


However, Harris’s contributions in the air (30 receptions) have balanced out his rough start on the ground (3.9 yards-per-carry).


Bombers rookie defensive back Kevin Fogg has made a strong first impression around the league. His 28 tackles lead all defensive rookies and are good for fourth overall in the CFL.

By the Numbers

0 – Rushing touchdowns for highly-touted Winnipeg RB Andrew Harris.


9.6 – Yards-per-completion for Esks QB Mike Reilly, second-best amongst CFL starting QBs.


37 – League-leading number of tackles for Winnipeg LB Ian Wild.


65 – Combined receptions for Edmonton’s Bowman-Walker duo.


The Skinny


Winnipeg has turned to its backup quarterback after a slow start to the season offensively. As Jason Maas said, Edmonton still has championship talent but hasn’t consistently shown it through its first four games.


Both teams have something to prove, and the first five weeks of the season would hint at a high-scoring slugfest at Commonwealth on Thursday night.


The difference between the two teams is Edmonton, while inconsistent in the win column, has been consistent offensively, averaging 31.5 points-per-game. Winnipeg’s offence has only broken the 20-point mark twice in five games.


Then again, there’s the Matt Nichols redemption factor to keep in mind.


Then again (again), there’s also the fact that Winnipeg’s offensive line has allowed the most sacks in the league.


Something’s got to give.


Kickoff is slated for 9 p.m. ET and can be seen live on TSN.

 

[CNOTES]

LANDRY: 5 TAKEAWAYS FROM WEEK 5

DON LANDRY


Hey there, referee Kim Murphy. At one point on Saturday night, I heard you say the words “that penalty is refused.” Come on, now. We don’t “refuse” penalties in Canada. Too harsh. We “decline” them. Politely.


Very politely.

Here are the takeaways:


1. THE ARGOS CAN CATCH PASSES BUT NOT A BREAK.AWAYS FROM WEEK 5


They haven’t had their entire first string receiving crew together at all this season. Diontae Spencer hasn’t played a down. Kevin Elliott was injured in the opener and hasn’t been back since. Tori Gurley has missed the last two games.


Always, someone has been out and someone else has shown the ability to step in. Wallace Miles, Phil Bates and now Devon Wylie have all filled the void quite capably. Kenny Shaw, who answered the bell to take Spencer’s spot at the beginning of the season, has emerged as a bona fide breakout star, punctuating his CFL arrival with a spectacular catch and crash during Monday night’s win over Montreal.


Quarterback Ricky Ray was showing that he was starting to find the groove and Argo fans must have been licking their chops over the prospect of getting the likes of Elliott, Gurley and Spencer back in the line up. Now, Ray goes down.


Total: Zero breaks caught. As for Ray’s back-up, Logan Kilgore, Argos’ GM Jim Barker told me a couple of weeks ago: “We feel like Logan is ready now. That, if he is called upon, he can go in and he’ll perform at a high level.”


We’re about to find out if that is true.


2. NEVER TAKE YOUR FOOT OFF THE GAS.


The Edmonton Eskimos did precisely that on Saturday night. Moreover, they pulled their car into a convenience store parking lot and left the engine running because they were “just hopping in for a bag of chips and a pop.” But then, they got distracted by the magazine rack and ended up browsing for 20 minutes.


More than enough time for the Ticats to wander by and go “oh, hey. Free car!” What in the name of Hugh Campbell happened there? It’s not like the Eskies were seen crowd surfing Flo Rida’s mosh pit at the break.


Could it be that the Ticats used halftime to pore over crucial Eskimo blueprints smuggled into them by a droid? I saw two very different headlines following this game: 1) Ticats Wipe Out 25 Point Deficit. 2) Eskimos Squander 25 Point Lead. The headline you favour likely depends on whether you prefer green with your gold or black but I do know this:


For something like that to happen, it takes two to tango.


3. ANDY FANTUZ CAN KICK EQUALLY WELL WITH EITHER LEG.


After touchdown number one against the Eskimos, he drilled one into the stands with his left leg. Touchdown number two, he did the same with his right. Notable exclamations on what were two superb major score receptions.


On the first, he made a nice adjustment from looking over his outside shoulder, recalibrating, and then looking over his left to haul in a Jeremiah Masoli pass that was a little off target. On number two, Masoli was right on the money in a small window and Fantuz brought it in over his right shoulder in very tight coverage.


In case you haven’t noticed, Andy Fantuz is a top ten receiver in both yards and receptions in 2016. His 2015 numbers were underwhelming but then again, he missed half the season with an elbow injury.


So, yes, while one takeaway on Fantuz is that he is ambipedal – I looked it up; it’s the foot version of ambidextrous – the larger takeaway is that anyone who counted him out needs to reconsider that position.


4. CHRIS JONES IS TRUE TO HIS WORD.


Remember Saskatchewan’s Week 3 loss to the Edmonton Eskimos? That’s the game where the ‘Riders roared back to take a 36-33 lead with seconds remaining, before losing in overtime.


That overtime happened because Jones had his defence play passively in the last few seconds, allowing the Eskimos to easily move the ball into field goal range for the tie. “If I had a do-over, I would probably be a little bit more aggressive…” Jones said afterward. Well, how about a lot more aggressive.


After Tyler Crapigna kicked the ‘Riders into a 30-29 lead against Ottawa, there was still 1:03 left on the clock. On Ottawa’s first down, Jones dialed up a 6-man rush and a sack. On second down Jones had a much more aggressive version of short-pattern pass coverage, forcing a deep ball that was incomplete. On third and fourteen, he let a three man rush do the job and Ottawa QB Brock Jensen ran out of steamboats.


5. EVERYONE IN SASKATCHEWAN HAS GAME FACE.


Always. Right from the get go.


Look at this kid. That is some sunglass-wearing, intensity-showing, locked-in kinda game attitude there. How old is that kid? Barely six months? He or she already has a Chris Jones kind of down-to-business thing going there.


Put that kid in a fully buttoned up black golf shirt and put a mic on those ear covers and you’ve got an extraordinary mini-Jones there. Has that kid uttered its first words yet? Because I’ll bet my bottom dollar those words will be “bring ’em out.” Or “George Reed, GOAT.”


And Finally… Don’t think I forgot about you, Chad Owens. That catch was stoopid. Nope, not enough O’s. It was stooooopid.

 

[CNOTES]

WEST DIVISION


RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV


1 BC 4 3 1 0 6 102 73 1-1-0 2-0-0 2-0-0


2 Calgary 4 2 1 1 5 113 86 1-0-0 1-1-1 2-1-0


3 Edmonton 4 2 2 0 4 127 134 1-2-0 1-0-0 2-0-0


4 Saskatchewan 4 1 3 0 2 110 138 1-2-0 0-1-0 0-2-0


5 Winnipeg 5 1 4 0 2 98 135 0-3-0 1-1-0 0-3-0






EAST DIVISION


RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV


1 Ottawa 5 3 1 1 7 158 126 0-0-1 3-1-0 2-0-0


2 Hamilton 5 3 2 0 6 137 114 0-2-0 3-0-0 2-0-0


3 Toronto 5 3 2 0 6 125 120 1-2-0 2-0-0 1-2-0


4 Montreal 4 1 3 0 2 59 103 0-2-0 1-1-0 0-3-0

 

[CNOTES]

7/23- Saturday's Totals: 1 - 1


June July Totals


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 8-12-0 40.00% -2600


O/U Picks 10-8-2 55.56% +600




THURSDAY, JULY 28


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


WPG at EDM 09:00 PM

EDM -9.5


U 55.5

 

[indiana]

C/note..........good luck with tonight's play..........indy