Western Conference Best Bets
October 27, 2015
Eastern Conference
SOUTHWEST DIVISION
Give the Houston Rockets (54½) and GM Daryl Morey credit for not standing still. Addressing the one glaring area of need on the roster, Morey went out and added an elite PG, Ty Lawson, in a trade with the Nuggets. For the cost of a collection of fringe players and a couple of draft picks, Houston has thus added a guard who can take a lot more scoring pressure off James Harden than Patrick Beverly or any of the other PGs on the roster the past two years. Now, can Lawson stay out of trouble after a couple of recent DUI arrests? If so, the Rockets certainly appear better prepared to battle the Warriors than they were in last spring’s West Finals, and should not regress from last year’s 56 wins. “Over” at Toyota Center.
One of these years, the San Antonio Spurs (58½) will be minus their longtime “big three” of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker, who return for one more ride at the rodeo. (To be fair, at “only” 33, Parker is nowhere near as close to the end of the line as the older Duncan and Ginobili, but we are content to play along with the long-running narrative in Alamo City.) And on the surface, the Spurs appear better set for another run at NBA gold after adding frontliners LaMarcus Aldridge and David West, the latter hungry enough for a title to accept a big pay cut to get a chance to play for the ring. But, as has been the case in recent years, Gregg Popovich is going to pace the elders on his roster with an eye to peaking in April, not before the All-Star break, and there does figure to be an adjustment period with Aldridge, and to a smaller degree West, accepting new roles in the Popovich system. The likely move of Duncan to a reserve role could turn out to be a stroke of genius by Popovich, and Kawhi Leonard has ascended to All-Star caliber status, so we would not bet against San Antonio making another run to the NBA Finals after last spring’s bitter first-round exit vs. the Clippers. But the regular season will likely be a prelim for the Spurs, whose focus will again be on staying healthy for the postseason. “Under” at AT&T Center.
The Memphis Grizzlies (50½) breathed a sigh of relief when invaluable big man Marc Gasol re-signed a new deal to stay in town and keep intact a familiar core that includes Zach Randolph, Mike Conley, and Tony Allen, now entering their sixth season together. A bit more inflow (Matt Barnes and Brandan Wright) than outflow (Kosta Koufos) in free agency suggests a small roster upgrade for HC Dave Joerger, who hopes that the aggressive Barnes adds the sort of size on the wings that the Griz might need. While still short of a Kyle Korver-like spot shooter that could make the difference in a playoff series vs. a team like the Warriors (pushed to six games by Memphis last spring despite the Griz being without Allen and Conley for parts of the series), Joerger’s team hardly appears as if it will regress from last year’s 55 wins unless injuries hit key cogs such as Gasol and Randolph. Short of that, it looks like an “over” at FedEx Forum before Memphis likely runs into another roadblock in the crowded West playoffs.
Accepting that he had a good thing going, GM Dell Demps did little roster tinkering in the offseason with the New Orleans Pelicans (47½), who made the playoffs last spring and return with basically the same look. And why not, with frontliner Anthony Davis on his way to superstar status? That’s not to say that Demps stood pat, surprisingly hitting the eject button on HC Monty Williams and enlisting Alvin Gentry, who makes his fifth stop as an NBA HC and also fresh off a stint as Steve Kerr’s top assistant with the champion Warriors. Demps is looking for Gentry to implement a go-go Golden State style of transition basketball in the Big Easy, an approach embraced by the versatile Davis, who could further thrive in an uptempo attack. Though the key to New Orleans making the move from playoff team to title contender might rely upon PG Jrue Holiday staying healthy after missing almost half of last season due to leg problems. Especially since there are injury concerns already on the perimeter with Tyreke Evans out until at least mid-December with knee issues, G Norris Cole dealing with a bum ankle, and C Omer Asik trying to overcome a potentially bothersome calf strain. Assuming no more significant health developments, the Pelicans could be one of the more entertaining teams in the league. As long as the early spate of injuries abates, look “over” at Smoothie King Center.
Mark Cuban must have thought he was being outbid by Kevin O’Leary or Daymond John on ABC’s Shark Tank when C DeAndre Jordan abandoned his verbal commitment in the offseason to sign with the Dallas Mavericks (37½) and instead decided to remain with the Clippers. That punch in the gut, along with C Tyson Chandler’s decision to bolt to Phoenix, left the Mavs in a precarious position on their frontline. The situation was eventually salvaged, though perhaps just partly so, when adding ex-Hawk and Buck Zaza Pachulia later in the summer, a valuable “save” for HC Rick Carlisle. The storyline for this season in Big D, however, will likely be whether the Mavs can squeeze something out of main offseason additions Deron Williams (back in his hometown) and Wes Matthews, the former trying to rediscover prior form that has been fleeting the past few years, the latter trying to come back from an Achilles tendon tear. As well as getting a full season from swingman Chandler Parsons, who was effective (15.7 ppg) a year ago before suffering a season-ending knee injury that required surgery, and still on the mend as the new 2015-16 campaign begins. Yes, Dirk Nowitzki is still around, but his contributions are beginning to diminish. And. unfortunately, the inability to add a rim protector like Jordan means Dirk’s defensive flaws will remain harder for Carlisle to camouflage. With so many questions, a playoff berth appears a difficult task, though a precipitous drop from last year’s 50 wins is probably unlikely if all hands stay on deck. It’s a no call for us at AA Center.
NORTHWEST DIVISION
It has already been a distracting preseason for the Minnesota Timberwolves (26½), absorbing their hardest blow over the weekend with news of the passing of HC Flip Saunders, who had been battling Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Assistant Sam Mitchell, formerly Toronto’s HC, will take over on the bench for the remainder of this term . In the meantime, the T-wolves continue to collect No. 1 draft picks, adding Kentucky C Karl-Anthony Towns last June. However, this stockpile of young talent that also includes last year’s top pick Andrew Wiggins has yet to coagulate, and a jump of 11 wins from 2014-15 appears a tall order. Especially since counting on a full season from injury-prone PG Ricky Rubio (who missed 60 games in his latest injury-marred campaign a year ago) appears wishful thinking. And Kevin Garnett’s value these days is not much more than a mentoring role. More losses in Minneapolis; “under” at Target Center.
Longtime fans in “Rip City” might be wondering if they are watching a replay of the 1970-71 expansion campaign of their Portland Trailblazers (26½), whose roster has undergone a complete overhaul after mass defections following last season. The Blazers did win 29 games in their debut year with the likes of Geoff Petrie, Rick Adelman, Leroy Ellis, and the one and only Dale Schlueter providing main contributions. But the current lot might be doing well to match that win total after almost the entire rotation (LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Robin Lopez, Wes Matthews, Arron Afflalo), save G Damian Lillard, departed in the offseason, taking a whopping 76 points and 34 rebounds per game with them. Replacement parts such as Gerald Henderson, Miles Plumlee, and Ed Davis are serviceable sorts, and holdovers such as G CJ McCollum and C Meyers Leonard might be ready to assume more-featured roles. But make no mistake, this is a massive rebuild going on in Portland, and all of HC Terry Stotts’ motivational skills and ability to quickly assemble the pieces around Lillard will be required to keep the Blazer barge from crashing into the pier. We normally don’t forecast such a big drop in wins, but we can’t help but look “under” at the Rose Garden.
Unlike a year ago when ravaged by injuries, the Oklahoma City Thunder (56½) are likely to inhale most of the available oxygen in the Northwest Division. Of course, getting former league MVP Kevin Durant back in the fold after his injury-plagued 2015-16 is the biggest development, but that wasn’t the main news in the offseason at The Peake, as ex-Florida HC Billy Donovan makes the jump to the NBA to replace the jettisoned Scott Brooks. While new to the pro game, Donovan coached and saw lots of NBA talent with the Gators, and most insiders expect Donovan to let his star players improvise and create, rather than overcoaching with set plays on every possession. Thus, there’s a good chance Durant and Russell Westbrook might flourish to an even greater extent. And during the wreckage of 2014-15, Ok City did add a potential valuable piece in C Enes Kanter, acquired from the Jazz at the trade deadline and finally giving the Thunder a post threat who can score close to the basket. (Ok City GM Sam Presti thought enough of Kanter to reward him with a $70 million offer sheet in restricted free agency.) A full-strength Thunder completely change the dynamics in the Northwest as well as the entire conference, and unless Donovan flops (which we highly doubt), this might be the year it all comes together in Ok City before pending FA Durant decides what to do next summer. “Over” at The Peake.
It’s been nothing but a steep decline lately for the Denver Nuggets (26½), a playoff regular not long ago but trending downward fast the past couple of years since mistakenly moving out HC George Karl. The Brian Shaw coaching experiment failed miserably, and now it is up to former Sacto HC Mike Malone to re-assemble the pieces. Unfortunately, Malone is faced with a massive rebuild with a roster full of role players, rookies, and now no stars after troubled point guard Ty Lawson was traded to Houston for some spare roster parts and future draft picks. In other words, nothing that will help this year. It will still be fun to watch F Kenneth Faried, who was all over the floor last season and did everything except sell popcorn at the Pepsi Center, while Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler can still knock down shots and help Malone pull a surprise or two along the way. Intriguing 6-5 rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay, a first-round draft pick, has plenty of upside, but nonetheless appears a developmental project at this stage. Add it up, and Denver is not likely to be a factor this term and could be a seller again at the trade deadline, nothing that bodes well for this season. True, Malone doesn’t have to deal with DeMarcus Cousins, as he did in his time with Sacto last season, but we see few other positives for the new coach in the short term with the Nuggets, so we look “under” in the Mile High City.
The Utah Jazz (41½) were one of the NBA’s belles of the ball in the second half of last season, winning 19 of their last 29 games on the back of a superb defense led by the promotion of the Frenchy “Stifle Tower” (or do you prefer “French Rejection” instead?) Rudy Gobert to starting center. Unfortunately, a lot of the feel-good in Salt Lake City was tempered in the offseason when emerging young 6-6 PG Dante Exum wrecked a knee playing for the Aussie national team and will be lost for the season. But the absence of Exum, while on the ascent, does not figure to be a death knell for HC Quin Snyder, who likely gives the PG job back to Trey Burke, who was close behind Michael Carter-Williams and Victor Oladipo for Rookie of the Year honors the previous term before yielding minutes to Exum in the later portion of 2014-15. The emergence of Gordon Hayward into an All-Star caliber contributor remains a plus, and Gobert’s presence on the stop end figures to become more pronounced as the season progresses. Exum’s injury prevents us from looking “over” at Energy Solutions Arena, but enough positives are still present for the Jazz to keep us neutral on their win prospects this term.
PACIFIC DIVISION
We have been burned a couple of times in recent years when expecting too much of the Sacramento Kings (32½). Call us stubborn, because we’re doing it again. That’s because we’re giving the Kings one more mulligan for their disjointed 2014-15 campaign that featured three different head coaches and an eventual awkward transition to the regime of current HC George Karl after the All-Star break. Karl’s track record, however, suggests the Kings should not remain a doormat. We saw the Karl touch in the offseason, gambling on a potential elite PG in Rajon Rondo and adding valuable rotation pieces Marco Belinelli from the Spurs and Kosta Koufas from the Griz. Kentucky rookie C Willie Cauley-Stein will also provide defense on nights when DeMarcus Cousins is pouting or otherwise occupied. Yes, adding another complicated personality in Rondo to go along with the moody Cousins means that Karl perhaps should have considered offering Dr. Phil a assistant coaching role, but a mild upgrade into the mid 30s in wins is not asking much from a team that already has 20+ scorers in Cousins and Rudy Gay. Look “over” at the Sleep Train.
It was a fun ride last season for the Golden State Warriors (60½), winning their first NBA title in 40 years, or since one of our all-time favorite teams, led by Rick Barry and coached by the wolverine-like Al Attles, took the crown in a startling Finals sweep of the then-called Washington Bullets. Like the subsequent Warriors team in 1975-76 that would lose in the West Finals to Paul Westphal, Alvan Adams, Gar Heard, and the Phoenix Suns, we wonder if the Warriors get back to the top of the heap this term. Keep in mind that Golden State experienced uncommonly good injury luck last season, and any resurface of MVP G Steph Curry’s previous problems with turned ankles and other nagging maladies could somewhat derail the operation. Already there is injury news on the bench as HC Steve Kerr will miss the start of the season due to a balky back, with assistant Luke Walton pushing the buttons until further notice. A signal of things to come? On the other hand, aside from F David Lee’s departure to Boston, there was no significant roster outflow, and much of the same roster that dominated the league a year remains in tact. Only this time, Golden State wears a huge target, and if the Warriors can’t catch the same injury breaks that helped so much a year ago, we are not convinced they get to 60 wins. Golden State might well return to the Finals, but it’s an “under” for us in Oakland.
There is lots of wishful thinking going on with the support base of the Los Angeles Lakers (29½), who had to endure an unspeakably difficult 21-61 slog a year ago, the franchise’s worst mark since it moved to California in 1959. And, in their defense, it is hard to imagine things going as pear-shaped this term after injuries took Kobe Bryant out of the equation after just a handful of games, while promising rookie PF Julius Randle went out for the season with a leg injury in the opener. But these are still turbulent times for the Lake Show, with Jimmy and Jeanie Buss locked in a sibling rivalry for direction of the franchise, and GM Mitch Kupchak now supposedly given a freer hand to alter the roster as he sees fit. There is some hope for the future with Randle having returned and top draftee D’Angelo Russell from Ohio State promising to add some real spark. The shadow of Kobe, and his immense contract, however, delay the beginning of any serious rebuilding, and even if he remains healthier (a big if after missing most of the past two seasons as his body, like so many veteran players before him, breaks down late in his career), we’re not sure how that plays in what is likely his valedictory campaign. We just wonder how HC Byron Scott continues to handle a caretaker role until Kobe likely exits stage left at the conclusion of the season. In the East, perhaps we would entertain an “over” recommendation, but not in the West, where the schedule is too tough for the Lakers to make a significant move forward this year. Another “under” for the Lake Show.
Is the window of opportunity closing for the Lakers’ Staples Center co-tenant Los Angeles[/B] Clippers (56½)? It might be for HC Doc Rivers, hired by the previous Donald Sterling regime to steer the team further in the postseason than it went under predecessor Vinny Del Negro. That has yet to happen, however, and the bitter after-taste of blowing a 3-1 lead in the West semis vs. the Rockets might have Doc on notice from new owner Steve Ballmer, who when not being featured on Shaqtin’ a Fool with his dance antics during timeouts does not seem the sort to tolerate any further underachieving, especially in the manner of the most-recent postseason exit. The importance of managing to hold onto C DeAndre Jordan (who first committed to Dallas in free agency) cannot be minimized, as his presence on the defensive end frees Blake Griffin to concentrate more on offense. But the main motor in the Clips’ engine room remains PG Chris Paul, whose knees are becoming more brittle by the season, and Doc is going to have to spend the first half of the campaign figuring out his rotations with a diverse cast of newcomers, with Paul Pierce, Lance Stephenson, Josh Smith, and Wesley Johnson all looking for minutes and a defined role. The energy provided by since-departed Matt Barnes (now in Memphis) might also be hard to replace. By April, perhaps Rivers has assembled the pieces for a legit title run, but we foresee some bumps along the way, so it’s an “under” for us at the Clip Joint.
Unlike a year ago, when off a narrow miss at a playoff berth in 2013-14 that no one expected, few are paying attention to the Phoenix Suns (36½), who faded down the stretch last season when losing 10 of their last 11 to drop from postseason contention. That slump, however, coincided with an ankle injury to G Brandon Knight, acquired at the trade deadline from the Bucks and regarded so highly by GM Ryan McDonough and HC Jeff Hornacek that he was subsequently signed to a $70 million, five-year deal to remain in Phoenix. So, unlike a year ago, there is now some clarity in the backcourt after last year’s roster logjam had Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas (also both with contract distractions) looking to get out. Now, Hornacek sees Knight and fellow backcourt mate Eric Bledsoe as the cornerstones of the roster. Meanwhile, there looks to be some stability in the post with the addition of veteran C Tyson Chandler, who is also expected to provide needed leadership in the clubhouse. Thus, sources say chemistry issues that proved a distraction last season should not be a factor, and Hornacek has proven plenty capable of coaxing more out of past rosters. Getting into the high 30s in wins is not asking too much of the Suns, so we look “over” in the Valley of the Sun.
October 27, 2015
Eastern Conference
SOUTHWEST DIVISION
Give the Houston Rockets (54½) and GM Daryl Morey credit for not standing still. Addressing the one glaring area of need on the roster, Morey went out and added an elite PG, Ty Lawson, in a trade with the Nuggets. For the cost of a collection of fringe players and a couple of draft picks, Houston has thus added a guard who can take a lot more scoring pressure off James Harden than Patrick Beverly or any of the other PGs on the roster the past two years. Now, can Lawson stay out of trouble after a couple of recent DUI arrests? If so, the Rockets certainly appear better prepared to battle the Warriors than they were in last spring’s West Finals, and should not regress from last year’s 56 wins. “Over” at Toyota Center.
One of these years, the San Antonio Spurs (58½) will be minus their longtime “big three” of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker, who return for one more ride at the rodeo. (To be fair, at “only” 33, Parker is nowhere near as close to the end of the line as the older Duncan and Ginobili, but we are content to play along with the long-running narrative in Alamo City.) And on the surface, the Spurs appear better set for another run at NBA gold after adding frontliners LaMarcus Aldridge and David West, the latter hungry enough for a title to accept a big pay cut to get a chance to play for the ring. But, as has been the case in recent years, Gregg Popovich is going to pace the elders on his roster with an eye to peaking in April, not before the All-Star break, and there does figure to be an adjustment period with Aldridge, and to a smaller degree West, accepting new roles in the Popovich system. The likely move of Duncan to a reserve role could turn out to be a stroke of genius by Popovich, and Kawhi Leonard has ascended to All-Star caliber status, so we would not bet against San Antonio making another run to the NBA Finals after last spring’s bitter first-round exit vs. the Clippers. But the regular season will likely be a prelim for the Spurs, whose focus will again be on staying healthy for the postseason. “Under” at AT&T Center.
The Memphis Grizzlies (50½) breathed a sigh of relief when invaluable big man Marc Gasol re-signed a new deal to stay in town and keep intact a familiar core that includes Zach Randolph, Mike Conley, and Tony Allen, now entering their sixth season together. A bit more inflow (Matt Barnes and Brandan Wright) than outflow (Kosta Koufos) in free agency suggests a small roster upgrade for HC Dave Joerger, who hopes that the aggressive Barnes adds the sort of size on the wings that the Griz might need. While still short of a Kyle Korver-like spot shooter that could make the difference in a playoff series vs. a team like the Warriors (pushed to six games by Memphis last spring despite the Griz being without Allen and Conley for parts of the series), Joerger’s team hardly appears as if it will regress from last year’s 55 wins unless injuries hit key cogs such as Gasol and Randolph. Short of that, it looks like an “over” at FedEx Forum before Memphis likely runs into another roadblock in the crowded West playoffs.
Accepting that he had a good thing going, GM Dell Demps did little roster tinkering in the offseason with the New Orleans Pelicans (47½), who made the playoffs last spring and return with basically the same look. And why not, with frontliner Anthony Davis on his way to superstar status? That’s not to say that Demps stood pat, surprisingly hitting the eject button on HC Monty Williams and enlisting Alvin Gentry, who makes his fifth stop as an NBA HC and also fresh off a stint as Steve Kerr’s top assistant with the champion Warriors. Demps is looking for Gentry to implement a go-go Golden State style of transition basketball in the Big Easy, an approach embraced by the versatile Davis, who could further thrive in an uptempo attack. Though the key to New Orleans making the move from playoff team to title contender might rely upon PG Jrue Holiday staying healthy after missing almost half of last season due to leg problems. Especially since there are injury concerns already on the perimeter with Tyreke Evans out until at least mid-December with knee issues, G Norris Cole dealing with a bum ankle, and C Omer Asik trying to overcome a potentially bothersome calf strain. Assuming no more significant health developments, the Pelicans could be one of the more entertaining teams in the league. As long as the early spate of injuries abates, look “over” at Smoothie King Center.
Mark Cuban must have thought he was being outbid by Kevin O’Leary or Daymond John on ABC’s Shark Tank when C DeAndre Jordan abandoned his verbal commitment in the offseason to sign with the Dallas Mavericks (37½) and instead decided to remain with the Clippers. That punch in the gut, along with C Tyson Chandler’s decision to bolt to Phoenix, left the Mavs in a precarious position on their frontline. The situation was eventually salvaged, though perhaps just partly so, when adding ex-Hawk and Buck Zaza Pachulia later in the summer, a valuable “save” for HC Rick Carlisle. The storyline for this season in Big D, however, will likely be whether the Mavs can squeeze something out of main offseason additions Deron Williams (back in his hometown) and Wes Matthews, the former trying to rediscover prior form that has been fleeting the past few years, the latter trying to come back from an Achilles tendon tear. As well as getting a full season from swingman Chandler Parsons, who was effective (15.7 ppg) a year ago before suffering a season-ending knee injury that required surgery, and still on the mend as the new 2015-16 campaign begins. Yes, Dirk Nowitzki is still around, but his contributions are beginning to diminish. And. unfortunately, the inability to add a rim protector like Jordan means Dirk’s defensive flaws will remain harder for Carlisle to camouflage. With so many questions, a playoff berth appears a difficult task, though a precipitous drop from last year’s 50 wins is probably unlikely if all hands stay on deck. It’s a no call for us at AA Center.
NORTHWEST DIVISION
It has already been a distracting preseason for the Minnesota Timberwolves (26½), absorbing their hardest blow over the weekend with news of the passing of HC Flip Saunders, who had been battling Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Assistant Sam Mitchell, formerly Toronto’s HC, will take over on the bench for the remainder of this term . In the meantime, the T-wolves continue to collect No. 1 draft picks, adding Kentucky C Karl-Anthony Towns last June. However, this stockpile of young talent that also includes last year’s top pick Andrew Wiggins has yet to coagulate, and a jump of 11 wins from 2014-15 appears a tall order. Especially since counting on a full season from injury-prone PG Ricky Rubio (who missed 60 games in his latest injury-marred campaign a year ago) appears wishful thinking. And Kevin Garnett’s value these days is not much more than a mentoring role. More losses in Minneapolis; “under” at Target Center.
Longtime fans in “Rip City” might be wondering if they are watching a replay of the 1970-71 expansion campaign of their Portland Trailblazers (26½), whose roster has undergone a complete overhaul after mass defections following last season. The Blazers did win 29 games in their debut year with the likes of Geoff Petrie, Rick Adelman, Leroy Ellis, and the one and only Dale Schlueter providing main contributions. But the current lot might be doing well to match that win total after almost the entire rotation (LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Robin Lopez, Wes Matthews, Arron Afflalo), save G Damian Lillard, departed in the offseason, taking a whopping 76 points and 34 rebounds per game with them. Replacement parts such as Gerald Henderson, Miles Plumlee, and Ed Davis are serviceable sorts, and holdovers such as G CJ McCollum and C Meyers Leonard might be ready to assume more-featured roles. But make no mistake, this is a massive rebuild going on in Portland, and all of HC Terry Stotts’ motivational skills and ability to quickly assemble the pieces around Lillard will be required to keep the Blazer barge from crashing into the pier. We normally don’t forecast such a big drop in wins, but we can’t help but look “under” at the Rose Garden.
Unlike a year ago when ravaged by injuries, the Oklahoma City Thunder (56½) are likely to inhale most of the available oxygen in the Northwest Division. Of course, getting former league MVP Kevin Durant back in the fold after his injury-plagued 2015-16 is the biggest development, but that wasn’t the main news in the offseason at The Peake, as ex-Florida HC Billy Donovan makes the jump to the NBA to replace the jettisoned Scott Brooks. While new to the pro game, Donovan coached and saw lots of NBA talent with the Gators, and most insiders expect Donovan to let his star players improvise and create, rather than overcoaching with set plays on every possession. Thus, there’s a good chance Durant and Russell Westbrook might flourish to an even greater extent. And during the wreckage of 2014-15, Ok City did add a potential valuable piece in C Enes Kanter, acquired from the Jazz at the trade deadline and finally giving the Thunder a post threat who can score close to the basket. (Ok City GM Sam Presti thought enough of Kanter to reward him with a $70 million offer sheet in restricted free agency.) A full-strength Thunder completely change the dynamics in the Northwest as well as the entire conference, and unless Donovan flops (which we highly doubt), this might be the year it all comes together in Ok City before pending FA Durant decides what to do next summer. “Over” at The Peake.
It’s been nothing but a steep decline lately for the Denver Nuggets (26½), a playoff regular not long ago but trending downward fast the past couple of years since mistakenly moving out HC George Karl. The Brian Shaw coaching experiment failed miserably, and now it is up to former Sacto HC Mike Malone to re-assemble the pieces. Unfortunately, Malone is faced with a massive rebuild with a roster full of role players, rookies, and now no stars after troubled point guard Ty Lawson was traded to Houston for some spare roster parts and future draft picks. In other words, nothing that will help this year. It will still be fun to watch F Kenneth Faried, who was all over the floor last season and did everything except sell popcorn at the Pepsi Center, while Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler can still knock down shots and help Malone pull a surprise or two along the way. Intriguing 6-5 rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay, a first-round draft pick, has plenty of upside, but nonetheless appears a developmental project at this stage. Add it up, and Denver is not likely to be a factor this term and could be a seller again at the trade deadline, nothing that bodes well for this season. True, Malone doesn’t have to deal with DeMarcus Cousins, as he did in his time with Sacto last season, but we see few other positives for the new coach in the short term with the Nuggets, so we look “under” in the Mile High City.
The Utah Jazz (41½) were one of the NBA’s belles of the ball in the second half of last season, winning 19 of their last 29 games on the back of a superb defense led by the promotion of the Frenchy “Stifle Tower” (or do you prefer “French Rejection” instead?) Rudy Gobert to starting center. Unfortunately, a lot of the feel-good in Salt Lake City was tempered in the offseason when emerging young 6-6 PG Dante Exum wrecked a knee playing for the Aussie national team and will be lost for the season. But the absence of Exum, while on the ascent, does not figure to be a death knell for HC Quin Snyder, who likely gives the PG job back to Trey Burke, who was close behind Michael Carter-Williams and Victor Oladipo for Rookie of the Year honors the previous term before yielding minutes to Exum in the later portion of 2014-15. The emergence of Gordon Hayward into an All-Star caliber contributor remains a plus, and Gobert’s presence on the stop end figures to become more pronounced as the season progresses. Exum’s injury prevents us from looking “over” at Energy Solutions Arena, but enough positives are still present for the Jazz to keep us neutral on their win prospects this term.
PACIFIC DIVISION
We have been burned a couple of times in recent years when expecting too much of the Sacramento Kings (32½). Call us stubborn, because we’re doing it again. That’s because we’re giving the Kings one more mulligan for their disjointed 2014-15 campaign that featured three different head coaches and an eventual awkward transition to the regime of current HC George Karl after the All-Star break. Karl’s track record, however, suggests the Kings should not remain a doormat. We saw the Karl touch in the offseason, gambling on a potential elite PG in Rajon Rondo and adding valuable rotation pieces Marco Belinelli from the Spurs and Kosta Koufas from the Griz. Kentucky rookie C Willie Cauley-Stein will also provide defense on nights when DeMarcus Cousins is pouting or otherwise occupied. Yes, adding another complicated personality in Rondo to go along with the moody Cousins means that Karl perhaps should have considered offering Dr. Phil a assistant coaching role, but a mild upgrade into the mid 30s in wins is not asking much from a team that already has 20+ scorers in Cousins and Rudy Gay. Look “over” at the Sleep Train.
It was a fun ride last season for the Golden State Warriors (60½), winning their first NBA title in 40 years, or since one of our all-time favorite teams, led by Rick Barry and coached by the wolverine-like Al Attles, took the crown in a startling Finals sweep of the then-called Washington Bullets. Like the subsequent Warriors team in 1975-76 that would lose in the West Finals to Paul Westphal, Alvan Adams, Gar Heard, and the Phoenix Suns, we wonder if the Warriors get back to the top of the heap this term. Keep in mind that Golden State experienced uncommonly good injury luck last season, and any resurface of MVP G Steph Curry’s previous problems with turned ankles and other nagging maladies could somewhat derail the operation. Already there is injury news on the bench as HC Steve Kerr will miss the start of the season due to a balky back, with assistant Luke Walton pushing the buttons until further notice. A signal of things to come? On the other hand, aside from F David Lee’s departure to Boston, there was no significant roster outflow, and much of the same roster that dominated the league a year remains in tact. Only this time, Golden State wears a huge target, and if the Warriors can’t catch the same injury breaks that helped so much a year ago, we are not convinced they get to 60 wins. Golden State might well return to the Finals, but it’s an “under” for us in Oakland.
There is lots of wishful thinking going on with the support base of the Los Angeles Lakers (29½), who had to endure an unspeakably difficult 21-61 slog a year ago, the franchise’s worst mark since it moved to California in 1959. And, in their defense, it is hard to imagine things going as pear-shaped this term after injuries took Kobe Bryant out of the equation after just a handful of games, while promising rookie PF Julius Randle went out for the season with a leg injury in the opener. But these are still turbulent times for the Lake Show, with Jimmy and Jeanie Buss locked in a sibling rivalry for direction of the franchise, and GM Mitch Kupchak now supposedly given a freer hand to alter the roster as he sees fit. There is some hope for the future with Randle having returned and top draftee D’Angelo Russell from Ohio State promising to add some real spark. The shadow of Kobe, and his immense contract, however, delay the beginning of any serious rebuilding, and even if he remains healthier (a big if after missing most of the past two seasons as his body, like so many veteran players before him, breaks down late in his career), we’re not sure how that plays in what is likely his valedictory campaign. We just wonder how HC Byron Scott continues to handle a caretaker role until Kobe likely exits stage left at the conclusion of the season. In the East, perhaps we would entertain an “over” recommendation, but not in the West, where the schedule is too tough for the Lakers to make a significant move forward this year. Another “under” for the Lake Show.
Is the window of opportunity closing for the Lakers’ Staples Center co-tenant Los Angeles[/B] Clippers (56½)? It might be for HC Doc Rivers, hired by the previous Donald Sterling regime to steer the team further in the postseason than it went under predecessor Vinny Del Negro. That has yet to happen, however, and the bitter after-taste of blowing a 3-1 lead in the West semis vs. the Rockets might have Doc on notice from new owner Steve Ballmer, who when not being featured on Shaqtin’ a Fool with his dance antics during timeouts does not seem the sort to tolerate any further underachieving, especially in the manner of the most-recent postseason exit. The importance of managing to hold onto C DeAndre Jordan (who first committed to Dallas in free agency) cannot be minimized, as his presence on the defensive end frees Blake Griffin to concentrate more on offense. But the main motor in the Clips’ engine room remains PG Chris Paul, whose knees are becoming more brittle by the season, and Doc is going to have to spend the first half of the campaign figuring out his rotations with a diverse cast of newcomers, with Paul Pierce, Lance Stephenson, Josh Smith, and Wesley Johnson all looking for minutes and a defined role. The energy provided by since-departed Matt Barnes (now in Memphis) might also be hard to replace. By April, perhaps Rivers has assembled the pieces for a legit title run, but we foresee some bumps along the way, so it’s an “under” for us at the Clip Joint.
Unlike a year ago, when off a narrow miss at a playoff berth in 2013-14 that no one expected, few are paying attention to the Phoenix Suns (36½), who faded down the stretch last season when losing 10 of their last 11 to drop from postseason contention. That slump, however, coincided with an ankle injury to G Brandon Knight, acquired at the trade deadline from the Bucks and regarded so highly by GM Ryan McDonough and HC Jeff Hornacek that he was subsequently signed to a $70 million, five-year deal to remain in Phoenix. So, unlike a year ago, there is now some clarity in the backcourt after last year’s roster logjam had Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas (also both with contract distractions) looking to get out. Now, Hornacek sees Knight and fellow backcourt mate Eric Bledsoe as the cornerstones of the roster. Meanwhile, there looks to be some stability in the post with the addition of veteran C Tyson Chandler, who is also expected to provide needed leadership in the clubhouse. Thus, sources say chemistry issues that proved a distraction last season should not be a factor, and Hornacek has proven plenty capable of coaxing more out of past rosters. Getting into the high 30s in wins is not asking too much of the Suns, so we look “over” in the Valley of the Sun.
