Merry Christmas Everyone!! Found a capper that has been posted on another site. Figured I'd share the info from the past few days if anyone is interested. His site is
alphacapper and plays seem to be documented there. Just someone else to keep an eye on.
Thursday Night Football
Carolina at Pittsburgh (Pitt -14½, 37)
THE PICK > Pittsburgh Steelers -14 (buy the hook if needed)
THE ANALYSIS > No matter what happens in this matchup, the Steelers are headed to the postseason already. Their motivation is that if they can run the table; meaning wins over the Panthers and Browns, then they will walk away with the AFC North title and that all desired first round division bye. Even as we sit right now with them and the Ravens carrying identical records, Pittsburgh has the better divisional record. There are also other scenarios where they could obtain the same results but I’m just focusing on this for the time being.
Now, it’s no secret that when Polamulu is out for the Steelers that their play and results are not as good as when he does play. Heck that’s all I’ve been hearing about the past couple of days on ESPN. But here’s the kicker....Carolina isn’t hardly going to beat you with deep plays and a passing threat if they can’t get their running game in gear. That will not happen in this game against a Steeler defensive front that is as stout as they are and only allow and average of 63.4 yards per game on the ground. Because Pittsburgh is tied for third in the league with 40 total sacks, look to see the Steelers dial up plenty of blitzes to try and confuse Carolina’s rookie QB Jimmy Clausen and create chaos for him all night long.
Look for Big Ben and his offensive unit to mix it up all night long with his great balance of passing and run plays. Watch Mike Wallace at the WR position account for at least one TD on the night and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Steelers defense come up with one too before it’s all said and done. Carolina hasn’t won any of their road games this year and this one I can’t see being close at all. The Panthers rank at the bottom of the NFL in scoring, and, both total and passing offense. Six of the Panthers losses have come by more that two touchdowns and four of Pittsburgh’s wins have been by more that two TD’s. Look for the far superior team in the Steelers to come away with a comfortable win in this one and cover this uneasy spread.
NCAAF Poinsettia Bowl
Navy vs San Diego State (SDST -3, 58)
THE PICK > San Diego State Aztecs -3
THE ANALYSIS > Here it is 11 days after Navy’s last game against the Black Knights of Army and the Midshipmen are already having to take the field again against San Diego State. In the big picture, that’s not a whole lot of time to prepare for a Bowl game. It’s basically a home game for the Aztecs but that’s not holding as much weight here as the Midshipmen will have their fair share of support there too. Although home teams are 7-3 ATS since 2003 let’s look beyond the “home field advantage” point here.
Navy runs the deadly “triple option” offense attack, that’s no big secret in which everybody and their brother knows about. Their gameplan will be to keep pounding the rock left, right and up the middle and try to control the clock. San Diego State will be playing with a little extra something tonight as their head coach Brady Hoke had an opportunity to leave them and their team for the likes of Minnesota but decided to re-sign and stay right where he’s at. That goes a long way with players in this day and age where a lot of coaches are quick to throw their old programs to the wayside and head for “greener pastures”.
As for Navy’s defense, they have averaged giving up over 156 yards per game on the ground and have given up 20 touchdowns or so through the air this year. That will spell bad news for them tonight as SDSU averages almost 450 yards per game of total offense while averaging 35 points per game. The Aztecs passing game is their strength as Ryan Lindley has thrown for over 3,500 yards this year with 26 TD’s. But don’t let their passing game get all the recognition as tonight they’ll use a weapon out of the backfield that has flown a little under the radar with all the attention the passing game has got all year. His name is Ronnie Hillman and he’s had 5 games this year with more than 150 yards rushing. Also, on the defensive side of the ball, San Diego State’s numbers are better in both the passing and rushing categories. They also rank 5th in the country in tackles for a loss which in my book can be a game changer.
The Aztecs offensive line have only allowed their QB to be sacked just nine total times on the whole season. With that kind of protection, he will be able to make some good decisions as to where to go downfield in this matchup. If Navy cannot put up a lot of points tonight then this one won’t be that close as Lindley will surely have a big game as will Hillman out of the backfield against this sub-par Midshipmen defense.
NCAAF Hawaii Bowl
Tulsa at Hawaii (Hawaii -9½, 73)
THE PICK > Over 73
THE ANALYSIS > Expect a shootout in this game tonight between the Warriors of Hawaii and the Golden Hurricane from Tulsa. The oddsmakers have set a pretty high total in this one. It’s sitting at 73½ /74 depending on where you look. That’s up from it’s opening line of 70 that I first saw. Hawaii is sitting on -9½/-10 also depending on where you shop, down from its original number of -12. So the early pounding has been on the underdog here and the Over. This is a home game for the Warriors so expect their crowd to be loud all night long. Now that we’ve weathered the initial storm let’s break this game down and find us an edge besides a homefield advantage.
The QB for Hawaii, Bryant Moniz if pretty dang tough and has done a lot of flying under the radar this year. That reason being is that a couple of other very noticeable QB’s from the same conference and their schools have been hogging up all the sports worlds attention. Colin Kaepernick from Nevada (*Hawaii beat Nevada 27-21 in Hawaii*) and their high profile win over Boise State and of course the Heisman Trophy finalist in Kellen Moore form Boise State (*Boise ST beat Hawaii 42-7 @ Boise*) have been getting most of the recognition. Fact is that Moniz leads the nation in scoring offense with almost 40 points per game and has thrown for over 4,600 yards and 36 touchdowns as a junior. With over 360 yards per game, he leads the nation in total offense and has thrown for 3 or more TDs in nine games this year! Hawaii also has a strong running game behind Alex Green. Green gained 1,135 yards and scored team high 17 touchdowns out of the backfield for them.
Now onto Tulsa and their field commander G.J. Kinne. All Mr. Kinne (Conference USA’s Offensive Player of the Year) has done on the year is run a spread offense that ranks among the top 15 in the nation in rushing and passing yards. He has thrown for over 3,300 yards and has 28 TDs to his credit while adding another 557 yards and another 7 scores with his legs. He leads Tulsa in the rushing category. He is also very accurate with his arm owning a 60% completion rate. Tulsa does have another four players that have over 300 yards a piece on the season.
You can see now why such a high total was set for this game. Still, you have to give Hawaii the edge on the offensive side of the ball especially if Tulsa can’t mix it up enough and eat some clock up to keep the Warriors offense off the field on. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite, 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games, and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The Golden Hurricanes are 6-13-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 20 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* BONUS FREE PICK > Hawaii Warriors -9½ *
He has a play on the Dallas and Arizona game posted for tonight. If it gets posted where I found these I'll post it too.