CFL AFS-MyLine experiment, Part Deux…

[teamfball]

This week 18 CFL.
So again … again…again…..Calgary with incredibly strong system scores this week. They covered the big numbers -9 then -15……2 weeks in a row. But a ridiculous -18 …Oh my…! Just way too many points to lay …. However, the system had them both weeks maybe I should reconsider the point threshold for system plays…NOT.!
No CFL plays this week………
………………………
This week 7 NFL.
Two HUGE model covers last week with ATL and DAL
Now…I know how valuable the SOS factor is to the AFS model!

This year AFS is better than ever with the addition of opponent strength, whereby each scoring category is adjusted according to all the opponents played corresponding strength or weakness. So now the system scoring is normalized with the strength of teams played factor, especially the early season predictions. The concept has eluded me for years, not wanting to settle for a simplified SOS based on wins and losses but a game by game measure of opponent strength.

Analysis of the numbers revealed that Seattle’s pass defense wasn’t as good as it looked on paper because of the weak passing opponents in their first four games allowing ATL to be the play. ATL was also the first consensus system play of the season as well, making consensus plays 19-3 in 6 years.
……………………….
Sadly with no CFL plays this week and likely none next week, this money making thread is coming to an end.
I can’t justly continue to talk about and provide links to my NFL plays here within someone else’s thread group.

Good luck to everyone.
AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’

YTD record
-----------------------
NFL---AFS plays
1-0-1, Basic AFS plays
1-0, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
NFL---AFS MyLine plays
1-0, 9 point basic plays
2-0, 11 point Top plays
1-0, Consensus Investment plays
===========================
CFL---AFS plays
1-3, Basic AFS plays
6-2, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
CFL---AFS MyLine plays
6-4, 6 point basic plays
0-1, 9 point top plays
2-1, 11 point investment plays

 

[centreline]

Just saw your thread . Well done. Just wondering why u don't put it the cfl forum? There is 2 weeks left in the regular season

 

[teamfball]

This week 19 CFL…..Final week for AFS………..

Yes Calgary covered the big numbers -9, -15, now -17 three weeks in a row. You guessed it Calgary scores high once more but the line is still too tall yet again, especially given they have a playoff lock and 2 bye weeks on deck.
We do have one final play after all.
British Columbia -2.5 is a Top AFS play and a 11 point Investment AFS MyLine play.
I would lock this play up ASAP…!

………………………

There were just two NFL basic plays week seven, ATL basic AFS lost, and NOR basic AFSML covered.


YTD record
-----------------------
NFL---AFS plays
1-1-1, Basic AFS plays
1-0, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
NFL---AFS MyLine plays
2-0, 9 point basic plays
2-0, 11 point Top plays
1-0, Consensus Investment plays
===========================
CFL---AFS plays
1-3, Basic AFS plays
6-2, Top AFS plays -----BC-2.5 pending----
-------------------------------------------
CFL---AFS MyLine plays
6-4, 6 point basic plays
0-1, 9 point top plays
2-1, 11 point investment plays ----BC-2.5 pending----
-----------------------------------------
AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’

Just saw your thread . Well done. Just wondering why u don't put it the cfl forum? There is 2 weeks left in the regular season

You’re absolutely right, this was the wrong place.
I’ll take your advice next season.

 

[teamfball]

The final Double-Tap for the AFS CFL experiment ends in a big cover as British Columbia brings home the bacon again as Top AFS play and AFS MyLine Investment plays.

Week 20 CFL…..Final week for AFS………..As expected the final regular season week has way too many what if type scenarios to programmatically predict the out comes for my money.

Now it’s time to gloat, the experiment was a huge success. !!
Self graded A- , as a matter of fact, only because I made a calculation error while sitting on my ass sipping a martini under a palapa in Mexico week 14, otherwise this would be an A+ grade all the way.
‘Adios Amigos’

Final 2016 CFL record ......................as posted ........w/o SNAFU
---------------------------------------
CFL---AFS plays
1-3, Basic AFS plays ............................-230 ..........-340
7-2, Top AFS plays ..............................2400 .........2950
-------------------------------------------
CFL---AFS MyLine plays
6-4, 6 point basic plays .........................160 ...........160
0-1, 9 point top plays .......................... -220 .........-440
3-1, 11 point investment plays................950..........1500
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
..........................................................30.6 .........38.3....units
---top plays only---the way I play'um---- .31.3.........40.1....units

AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’

 

[blackchina]

Nice work. See you next year

 

[teamfball]

It’s official, With the NFL and CFL drafts are behind us and OTA’s and mini camps here, the season can’t come soon enough to suit me. I’ll be posting AFS system plays over in the ‘other football form’ this year. CFL starts June 22 and the system needs at least 3 weeks of data before I pull the trigger. So the first play after the week 3 calculations could possibly come Monday July 10[SUP]th[/SUP] for the week 4 games.


AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’

 

[powerz]

Was following along last season.....looking forward to your contributions to the cfl forum after week 3.

 

[pyramid]

hello teamfball,

would you have the numbers for NFL scoring average it was about 21 points while back but I'm sure it has gone up

last 10 years and or 5 years would be greatly appreciated. Thx for your time and help


and for the CFL also if you have it? Thx again

 

[teamfball]

One can figure an average pretty quickly using this data.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/scoring.htm

I confirmed the 5 year average of 22.86 and 10 year of 22.37 using a different source.
That’s regular season games only.

From that same source, the CFL 5 year average is 25.16 and 10 is 25.55
Again, that’s regular season games only.

 

[stretchrunner147]

Things look great, but i see BC + 6 1/2 against Winnpg....am i looking at wrong week?