CFL AFS-MyLine experiment, Part Deux…

[teamfball]

I don’t think I could ask for a better start to the season for the AFS model. Just a heads up in case you’re thinking of jumping on board, these systems have a way of regressing to the mean. I remember the 2013 NFL season when I first figured how I was going to evaluate or score my data into something meaningful for ATS purposes, that year AFS began a 12-3 run only to finish the season at a 62% cover rate.

The only 2 possible AFS Top plays week 10 are Ottawa and Edmonton but Edmonton -13.5 is too rich for the AFS model. Ottawa however, at -3 is currently a Basic AFS play. But should the line fall to -2.5 or better it then becomes a Top AFS play and a MyLine 6 point basic play.

 

[teamfball]

Well there are enough Ottawa -2.5’s out there to make it official a Top AFS play and a AFS MyLine 6 point basic play.

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS play
3-0, Top AFS plays ----- Ottawa -2.5------Pending
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
5-2, 6 point basic plays ----- Ottawa -2.5------Pending
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays

 

[teamfball]

Game Day ---
Ottawa dropped to -2 and remains an official AFS TOP play plus AFS MyLine 6 point basic play.

Interestingly, much like last week the model has proven to be very accurate regarding both of these teams.
Back in week 4, Ottawa was a AFS Top play and a 11pt. AFS MyLine Investment play. More recently in weeks 7 and 8 both, British Columbia was the AFS TOP play plus AFS MyLine 6 point basic play twice.

So now even though the market is moving against the play, I have no reason to think the model will let us down.

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS play
3-0, Top AFS plays ----- Ottawa -2.5------Pending
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
5-2, 6 point basic plays ----- Ottawa -2.5------Pending
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays
-------------------------------------------

 

[teamfball]

A loss for the model, but still 4-1 on plays that really matter to the success or failure of this experiment.

This being Labor day week for both CA and the US there will be 5 games with a 9 team league this week.
The first being Wednesday BC vs. Toronto, so we’ll concentrate on the first 4 games then recalculate the numbers for Toronto playing again on Monday.

British Columbia -2.5 for the third time this year; is both a Top AFS play and a AFS MyLine 6 point basic play. Get it early…!

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS play
3-1, Top AFS plays --- British Columbia -2.5 --- pending
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
5-3, 6 point basic plays --- British Columbia -2.5 --- pending
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays
-------------------------------------------

 

[teamfball]

Looks like Ottawa opens at a pick-um , therefore, another big play this week.

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS play
3-1, Top AFS plays --- British Columbia -2.5 and Ottawa PK--- pending
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
5-3, 6 point basic plays --- British Columbia -2.5 --- pending
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays --- Ottawa PK--- pending
-------------------------------------------

 

[teamfball]

If you missed Ottawa at a Pick it still remains an investment play up to -2

 

[teamfball]

One win last night, and game two tonight currently sitting at -2.5 it still remains a Top AFS play, but no longer a 11 point investment play. That extra ½ point reduces it to a 9 point top play. However, because it was noted long before the line jump it will be scored as shown below.


YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS plays
4-1, Top AFS plays --- Ottawa PK--- pending
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
6-3, 6 point basic plays
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays --- Ottawa PK--- pending

 

[Indolmoseent]

Interesting...

 

[teamfball]

Interesting...

Interesting indeed…………….
Undeniably a solid week for the model, if the NFL numbers are this strong Oh!... My!... Goodness!

No additional plays on games 3, 4 or 5 this week. In the past I typically wait until after the fourth game of the weekend is complete before I recalculate the stats for game number 5. But regardless of any corrections it’s obvious me there is no possibility of a play on Monday.

FYI. I’m taking next week off heading to Mexico for my annual NFL season stress rectification. It’s a mid week departure and return, so I’ll have time post any week 12 plays. However, peaking ahead shows no early signs of a play next week.


YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS play
5-1, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
6-3, 6 point basic plays
0-0, 9 point top plays
2-0, 11 point investment plays

 

[teamfball]

Week 12 , just one Basic AFS play, Hamilton -4

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS play ---Hamilton -4 ---pending
5-1, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
6-3, 6 point basic plays
0-0, 9 point top plays
2-0, 11 point investment plays

 

[teamfball]

A basic play loss LW, but a Top / Investment this week.

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-2, Basic AFS plays
5-1, Top AFS plays ---Edmonton -5 ---pending

-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
6-3, 6 point basic plays
0-0, 9 point top plays
2-0, 11 point investment plays ---Edmonton -5 ---pending

 

[teamfball]

Wow the R&R was fantastic, but from the comfort of my beach chair I pulled the trigger way to quick on that last post. Fact is I’m sincerely sorry to anyone that followed that play. I was using a VPN connection to my desktop via my phone literally on the beach and somehow didn’t complete the entire recalculation process with the correct data set. I’m guilty of the infamous “user error”. Edmonton was a play but only a basic AFS and 9 point AFS MyLine top play; of course the record stands as posted because the model is only as good as the Ignoramus that created it. The error was very obvious today when I saw the number of games played jump by two rather than just one game. Again…. apologies to anyone following.
Lines are out early this week but NO plays.

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-2, Basic AFS plays
5-2, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
6-3, 6 point basic plays
0-0, 9 point top plays
2-1, 11 point investment plays

 

[teamfball]

Week 15 CFL,
Calgary -3 as a Top AFS play.
Toronto + 3.5 is a a 9 point Top AFS MyLine play
Also Ottawa +6 is a 6 point basic AFS MyLine play

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-2, Basic AFS plays
5-2, Top AFS plays ------- Calgary -3 Pending-------
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
6-3, 6 point basic plays ------ Ottawa +6 Pending ---------
0-0, 9 point top plays ------ Toronto + 3.5 Pending ---------
2-1, 11 point investment plays

 

[teamfball]

Week 16 CFL,
Last week
Huge AFS Top Play Winner with Calgary Friday
AFS basic loss on Ottawa Saturday
Toronto was a 9 point Top AFS MyLine Loss Sunday

This week
Two strong system scores this week Calgary and Ottawa but too many points to lay ….
However, Ottawa -6.5 does qualify as a Basic AFS play.


YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-2, Basic AFS plays ------ Ottawa -6.5 Pending ---------
6-2, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
6-4, 6 point basic plays
0-1, 9 point top plays
2-1, 11 point investment plays

 

[squeky]

Thanks for the winners. CFL fan. Calgary has best QB by far & Montreal have not thrown in the towel.

 

[teamfball]

Thanks for the winners. CFL fan. Calgary has best QB by far & Montreal have not thrown in the towel.

Thanks squeky, so there is life on the other side of this monitor screen….
Calgary ”by far” hum? Not sure about that, the RedBlacks have a very efficient QB play. And Montréal –fork’um – Calgary twice and Hamilton on the road for all the marbles I don’t see it.

It wasn’t my intention to beg for attention but only to share winning plays. I know units haven’t been mentioned in this CFL thread but applying the same unit strategy I use on the NFL side. The CFL Experiment Part Deux is currently up 21.7 units, and without the regrettable SNAFU week 13, plus 34 units. With only 4 weeks remaining most touts might slow play things preserving a winning record but not here, we’ll ride this to the end save for week 20 when starters are rested pending the playoffs.

The AFS model plays for Week 5 NFL are out.
But it’s not appropriate to post them here within Ace’s threads. It’s a pay per view site. But if you go here -- https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/teamfball2_5 -- and read the bio you should be able to figure out the correct sides and units for the system plays. If not shoot me a pm.

A wk5 basic AFS play is here -- https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/teamfball6_5 --

And the wk5 Top AFS MyLine play is here -- https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/teamfball_ML --

 

[teamfball]

and without the regrettable SNAFU week 13, plus 34 units.

I should proof read this shit…Sorry....... without the regrettable SNAFU week 13, plus 29.4 units.

 

[blackchina]

Good luck this week

 

[teamfball]

AFS NFL scores 2 big winners out of the gate.
Anyone watching knows I’ve been seeking additional factors like motivation, physical or emotional edges to add to my statistical model.

…..but what skills are needed to turn a basic play into a cash cow, and how does one find ways to pull back the reins and get off the investment plays when you need to most? I hope to figure this out very soon.

This little nugget was used to motivate me to look much deeper into basic play I normally overlook.

So for what it’s worth LW the Texans had a Phony Win. This could be another reason to look at the Vikes this week.

Ultimately I wagered o the Vikings as if it were a Top play. Yahoo..! guess I need to get busy an have a second look at those 18 pointers in his “Bettor’s tool kit”. Although for tracking purposes the Viking cover is graded as a basic play.

YTD record
-----------------------
NFL---AFS plays
1-0, Basic AFS plays
0-0, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
NFL---AFS MyLine plays
0-0, 9 point basic plays
1-0, 11 point Top plays
0-0, Consensus Investment plays
===========================
--------------------------The CFL basic play did suffer a loss with Ottawa earlier Friday night.
CFL---AFS plays
1-3, Basic AFS plays
6-2, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
CFL---AFS MyLine plays
6-4, 6 point basic plays
0-1, 9 point top plays
2-1, 11 point investment plays

 

[teamfball]

This week 17 CFL , week 6 NFL.
Again Calgary with incredibly strong system scores this week.
Last week they covered 9 , but 15 this week holy crap just too many points to lay ….
No CFL plays this week, but NFL AFS plays are posted on pickmonitor. Woof, woof.

YTD record
-----------------------
NFL---AFS plays
1-0, Basic AFS plays
0-0, Top AFS plays ----Pending----
-------------------------------------------
NFL---AFS MyLine plays
0-0, 9 point basic plays ----Pending----
1-0, 11 point Top plays ----Pending----
0-0, Consensus Investment plays ----Pending----
===========================
CFL---AFS plays
1-3, Basic AFS plays
6-2, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
CFL---AFS MyLine plays
6-4, 6 point basic plays
0-1, 9 point top plays
2-1, 11 point investment plays