no, you take the team that posted as the play in the spreadsheet. eg yesterday it was western carolina which had an OL of -11 with an early line move to 9.5 and than closed at -10.5 a half point down from the open so it would have been a play.
on the 1.5 and 2.0 line moves from the open with early LM, i dont bet those myself, just dont feel confortable with chasing that much of a move. but had you faded those i listed with the early line moves the record is 11-3
the only time it would be a fade is if the OL moves 3 points for the team listed, than you would fade that move and go with the other team
understand what i mean now?
i dont think i was clear enough on an 3 or more points LM. need to use a specific example
eg. tenn chat vs citadal opens at home as a -10 HF and has an early line move to -9.5. which than puts it into the spreadsheet as a possible early LM play. so about 10 min b4 post time the line is -8.5 a 1.5 LM. i would pass on that play, but the record for following those 1.5 to 2.0 moves is very good and if people are willing to give up that amount of points they would than take citadal +8.5
no using the same example, let say the line about 10 b4 post time is tenn chat -7. which is a 3 point line move. in those cases i would take tenn chat -7. i just feel confortable going with a team where the pub has bet it down that many points. but since we started tracking, there has not been any 3 point line moves. so only time will tell
hope this is better than my explaination in the earlier post. just look at the detail in the spreadsheet, which should point you in the right direction. we should be able to fine tune this a little more once we get more data. eg. home fav or dogs or vis fav or dogs but using the pivot table
the real thing i try to show everyone is that you really dont need to know shit about any sport, just create simple data table and start tracking and everything will fall into place
eg. tenn chat vs citadal opens at home as a -10 HF and has an early line move to -9.5. which than puts it into the spreadsheet as a possible early LM play. so about 10 min b4 post time the line is -8.5 a 1.5 LM. i would pass on that play, but the record for following those 1.5 to 2.0 moves is very good and if people are willing to give up that amount of points they would than take citadal +8.5
no using the same example, let say the line about 10 b4 post time is tenn chat -7. which is a 3 point line move. in those cases i would take tenn chat -7. i just feel confortable going with a team where the pub has bet it down that many points. but since we started tracking, there has not been any 3 point line moves. so only time will tell
hope this is better than my explaination in the earlier post. just look at the detail in the spreadsheet, which should point you in the right direction. we should be able to fine tune this a little more once we get more data. eg. home fav or dogs or vis fav or dogs but using the pivot table
the real thing i try to show everyone is that you really dont need to know shit about any sport, just create simple data table and start tracking and everything will fall into place
