- Status
almost finished with the master update and pdws and will upload them to the ftp in about 30 min
no umps all 1st game of a series
that's all from vegas land, ton of of scalps today, free money is a bunch, bunch and mo bunch of work, especially now that getting nfl, mlb and cfb
not sure how much longer i can burn the candle at both ends
i'm going for a little r&r
nite and glta
no umps all 1st game of a series
that's all from vegas land, ton of of scalps today, free money is a bunch, bunch and mo bunch of work, especially now that getting nfl, mlb and cfb
not sure how much longer i can burn the candle at both ends
i'm going for a little r&r
nite and glta
Friday August 10th
morning all, late starting times today and all but one ump not knows
expect a very busy day again today as OS start releasing cfb which creates many opportunities etc
so here's the pdws and wa nps for today, let me know if any changes etc
going for starts and that right to work
glta
morning all, late starting times today and all but one ump not knows
expect a very busy day again today as OS start releasing cfb which creates many opportunities etc
so here's the pdws and wa nps for today, let me know if any changes etc
going for starts and that right to work
glta
Last edited:
Found at another site - interesting stuff regarding team totals. I know we focus on overall totals but nonetheless I thought it was a good read
Pinnacle Pulse 73: explaining the merits of betting on baseball Team Totals
Willemstad, Curacao August 10, 2007
Leading online Sportsbook, PinnacleSports.com continues its ground breaking series of betting strategy articles, with Pinnacle Pulse 73, explaining the merits of betting on baseball Team Totals. Sports handicapping normally evaluates an individual team's offensive and defensive capabilities. The performance of one during a game will usually influence the other, such as when and where the offense will receive the ball and under what circumstances. Baseball is different, as regardless of how well the offense or defense are performing, each team receives twenty-seven outs to score as many runs as they can, and a further twenty seven outs to limit the opposing team to as few runs as possible.
This provides bettors with the opportunity to focus on the element of the game where their opinion is strongest, and profit where this view differs from that of the market. The way to do this is to bet on Team Totals.
Team Totals let a player bet on the number of runs one team will score in contrast to other lines that depend on the scores for both teams combined. When betting Over 4.5 runs for the Yankees, the bet wins if they score five or more runs. Unlike betting a Moneyline, Runline or Total, how many runs New York's pitching allows is irrelevant, allowing the bettor to focus on just their offense and the opposing defense.
Don't Forget the Juice
The concern with Team Totals is the same with all proposition bets; the 'juice' or commission charged is higher than on the main betting lines. Most books will charge -115 (wager $115 to win $100) to bet Team Totals, whereas PinnacleSports.com prices Team Totals at -108 (wager $108 to win $100). Though a significant saving, generally there isn't enough action for books to deal the line as sharp as for Totals or Runlines, and even PinnacleSports.com only offer $2,000 limits.
However, as Team Totals are closer to a main betting line than they are to a proposition bet, they aren't a true main line. With odds of -115 (1.87) it is tough to win, but far from impossible. The key is to play at a good number but also knowing that;
• One can give this line a lot more attention than the book probably is
• Many books and players don't understand what team Totals are worth
Common Mistake In Calculating Team Totals
The instinctual perception of Team Totals is that they should add up to the Total for the game, but this is incorrect. If both teams will score 5 or more runs exactly half the time, meaning both teams have a fair Team Total of 4.5, the game could be safely bet to go over 9.5 at even money even though the Team Totals only add up to 9. That's how runs are distributed. It's possible to score 24 runs in a game, but it's impossible to score less than 0.
Over or Under??
If the two numbers add up to the Total or higher, it's safe to pay scary looking juice to go under the Team Totals. If they add up to a half run less than the Total, it's usually all right to go under as long as the combined juice is small. If you actively like the under that makes these plays that much easier, and with experience a player can learn to spot which line is in error.
Going Over is harder, and there are many books where it is effectively impossible to beat the Over because
• squares tend to go over not realizing that the numbers don't add up the natural way,
• squares often bet with an unfounded optimism on what they'd like to see happen i.e. plenty of runs, and not what is most probable.
PinnacleSports.com has much sharper players and far lower juice, making it far more common for an over on a Team Total to have value. A safe and effective way to recognize correct Team Totals is to compare them to similar games. Though extra work, this teaches how to recognize value allowing bettors to hone in on areas where the Pinny Lean deviates from the market number, presenting another opportunity to profit.
Soft Lines
Team Totals like Runlines fluctuate in relation to the Moneyline and Total, but unlike Runlines many books do not link them as carefully and might even trade them completely independently. Therefore, if there is a large 'steam' move on a main betting line;
• Check whether the Team Totals have been updated.
• Compare the odds to the betting line at Pinnacle Sports or against similar priced games.
• The success rate on this is larger than one might expect, and sometimes bettors can even find a line that has gone in the opposite direction to the main lines.
• If someone bets the mathematically incorrect side of a Team Total, especially if this happens twice, it's likely to cause the line to move and offer value. Even PinnacleSports.com can't be sure to have the best of it, especially against sharps, so often we have to move the line and offer what we think is likely to be value.
While the under is more likely to offer value - especially if not playing at PinnacleSports.com the over can off real value in the right spot. It's never a sure thing that a pitcher will get it done. Sometimes a pitcher is hurt or just can't cut it in the majors. In those spots, the over on the other Team Total can be a monster favorite, much more than the over or the other team. The extra juice is a good reason to be cautious, but Team Totals are an excellent way to both find value and "bet on exactly what you like, and nothing you don't."
Reply With Quote
Pinnacle Pulse 73: explaining the merits of betting on baseball Team Totals
Willemstad, Curacao August 10, 2007
Leading online Sportsbook, PinnacleSports.com continues its ground breaking series of betting strategy articles, with Pinnacle Pulse 73, explaining the merits of betting on baseball Team Totals. Sports handicapping normally evaluates an individual team's offensive and defensive capabilities. The performance of one during a game will usually influence the other, such as when and where the offense will receive the ball and under what circumstances. Baseball is different, as regardless of how well the offense or defense are performing, each team receives twenty-seven outs to score as many runs as they can, and a further twenty seven outs to limit the opposing team to as few runs as possible.
This provides bettors with the opportunity to focus on the element of the game where their opinion is strongest, and profit where this view differs from that of the market. The way to do this is to bet on Team Totals.
Team Totals let a player bet on the number of runs one team will score in contrast to other lines that depend on the scores for both teams combined. When betting Over 4.5 runs for the Yankees, the bet wins if they score five or more runs. Unlike betting a Moneyline, Runline or Total, how many runs New York's pitching allows is irrelevant, allowing the bettor to focus on just their offense and the opposing defense.
Don't Forget the Juice
The concern with Team Totals is the same with all proposition bets; the 'juice' or commission charged is higher than on the main betting lines. Most books will charge -115 (wager $115 to win $100) to bet Team Totals, whereas PinnacleSports.com prices Team Totals at -108 (wager $108 to win $100). Though a significant saving, generally there isn't enough action for books to deal the line as sharp as for Totals or Runlines, and even PinnacleSports.com only offer $2,000 limits.
However, as Team Totals are closer to a main betting line than they are to a proposition bet, they aren't a true main line. With odds of -115 (1.87) it is tough to win, but far from impossible. The key is to play at a good number but also knowing that;
• One can give this line a lot more attention than the book probably is
• Many books and players don't understand what team Totals are worth
Common Mistake In Calculating Team Totals
The instinctual perception of Team Totals is that they should add up to the Total for the game, but this is incorrect. If both teams will score 5 or more runs exactly half the time, meaning both teams have a fair Team Total of 4.5, the game could be safely bet to go over 9.5 at even money even though the Team Totals only add up to 9. That's how runs are distributed. It's possible to score 24 runs in a game, but it's impossible to score less than 0.
Over or Under??
If the two numbers add up to the Total or higher, it's safe to pay scary looking juice to go under the Team Totals. If they add up to a half run less than the Total, it's usually all right to go under as long as the combined juice is small. If you actively like the under that makes these plays that much easier, and with experience a player can learn to spot which line is in error.
Going Over is harder, and there are many books where it is effectively impossible to beat the Over because
• squares tend to go over not realizing that the numbers don't add up the natural way,
• squares often bet with an unfounded optimism on what they'd like to see happen i.e. plenty of runs, and not what is most probable.
PinnacleSports.com has much sharper players and far lower juice, making it far more common for an over on a Team Total to have value. A safe and effective way to recognize correct Team Totals is to compare them to similar games. Though extra work, this teaches how to recognize value allowing bettors to hone in on areas where the Pinny Lean deviates from the market number, presenting another opportunity to profit.
Soft Lines
Team Totals like Runlines fluctuate in relation to the Moneyline and Total, but unlike Runlines many books do not link them as carefully and might even trade them completely independently. Therefore, if there is a large 'steam' move on a main betting line;
• Check whether the Team Totals have been updated.
• Compare the odds to the betting line at Pinnacle Sports or against similar priced games.
• The success rate on this is larger than one might expect, and sometimes bettors can even find a line that has gone in the opposite direction to the main lines.
• If someone bets the mathematically incorrect side of a Team Total, especially if this happens twice, it's likely to cause the line to move and offer value. Even PinnacleSports.com can't be sure to have the best of it, especially against sharps, so often we have to move the line and offer what we think is likely to be value.
While the under is more likely to offer value - especially if not playing at PinnacleSports.com the over can off real value in the right spot. It's never a sure thing that a pitcher will get it done. Sometimes a pitcher is hurt or just can't cut it in the majors. In those spots, the over on the other Team Total can be a monster favorite, much more than the over or the other team. The extra juice is a good reason to be cautious, but Team Totals are an excellent way to both find value and "bet on exactly what you like, and nothing you don't."
Reply With Quote
<TABLE class=rt_railbox_border2 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=TH vAlign=bottom align=middle><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=component_head align=middle>WEATHER</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=bg0_sub vAlign=bottom align=middle><TD><TABLE borderColor=#ffffff cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR><TH class=bg0_sub width="20%">Matchup</TH><TH class=bg0_sub colSpan=3>Conditions</TH><TH class=bg0_sub colSpan=2>Game Time Temp</TH><TH class=bg0_sub>Heat Index</TH></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>ATL BRAVES
PHI PHILLIES
Fri 7:35 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWER, STORMS EARLY.</TD><TD class=td>IN FROM CENTER 8-13</TD><TD class=td>77 </TD><TD class=td>84 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>FLA MARLINS
NY METS
Fri 7:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY CLOUDY, 40% CHANCE SHOWER, STORMS EARLY.</TD><TD class=td>IN FROM LEFT 9-14</TD><TD class=td>73 </TD><TD class=td>90 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>SD PADRES
CIN REDS
Fri 7:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>PARTLY CLOUDY.</TD><TD class=td>OUT TO RIGHT 8-13</TD><TD class=td>84 </TD><TD class=td>58 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>MIL BREWERS
HOU ASTROS
Fri 8:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>PARTLY CLOUDY.</TD><TD class=td>OUT TO LEFT 6-11</TD><TD class=td>89 </TD><TD class=td>59 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>97 </TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>LA DODGERS
STL CARDINALS
Fri 8:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY FAIR.</TD><TD class=td>IN FROM RIGHT CENTER 7-12</TD><TD class=td>87 </TD><TD class=td>54 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>92 </TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>CHI CUBS
COL ROCKIES
Fri 9:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>PARTLY CLOUDY, 20% CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY.</TD><TD class=td>OUT TO CENTER 9-14</TD><TD class=td>85 </TD><TD class=td>25 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>WAS NATIONALS
ARZ DBACKS
Fri 9:40 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>PARTLY CLOUDY, 20% CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY.</TD><TD class=td>LEFT TO RIGHT 8-13</TD><TD class=td>100</TD><TD class=td>23 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>100</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>PIT PIRATES
SF GIANTS
Fri 10:15 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>PARTLY CLOUDY.</TD><TD class=td>OUT TO LEFT 10-20</TD><TD class=td>64 </TD><TD class=td>72 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>BOS RED SOX
BAL ORIOLES
Fri 7:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY CLOUDY.</TD><TD class=td>IN FROM LEFT 8-13</TD><TD class=td>84 </TD><TD class=td>67 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>NY YANKEES
CLE INDIANS
Fri 7:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY FAIR.</TD><TD class=td>LEFT TO RIGHT 7-12</TD><TD class=td>77 </TD><TD class=td>66 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>OAK A'S
DET TIGERS
Fri 7:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY FAIR.</TD><TD class=td>OUT TO RIGHT 7-12</TD><TD class=td>79 </TD><TD class=td>62 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>TOR BLUE JAYS
KC ROYALS
Fri 8:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>PARTLY CLOUDY.</TD><TD class=td>OUT TO LEFT 8-13</TD><TD class=td>90 </TD><TD class=td>48 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>95 </TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>SEA MARINERS
CHI WHITE SOX
Fri 8:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY FAIR.</TD><TD class=td>LEFT TO RIGHT 6-11</TD><TD class=td>78 </TD><TD class=td>64 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>TB DEVILRAYS
TEX RANGERS
Fri 8:35 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY FAIR.</TD><TD class=td>IN FROM RIGHT 7-12</TD><TD class=td>92 </TD><TD class=td>45 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>97 </TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>MIN TWINS
LA ANGELS
Fri 10:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
</TD><TD class=td>CLEAR.</TD><TD class=td>IN FROM RIGHT 7-12</TD><TD class=td>80 </TD><TD class=td>43 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle><TD class=a1 align=left>Updated: Fri, Aug 10, 2007 at 12:45 PM EDT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
PHI PHILLIES
Fri 7:35 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>FLA MARLINS
NY METS
Fri 7:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>SD PADRES
CIN REDS
Fri 7:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>MIL BREWERS
HOU ASTROS
Fri 8:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>97 </TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>LA DODGERS
STL CARDINALS
Fri 8:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>92 </TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>CHI CUBS
COL ROCKIES
Fri 9:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>WAS NATIONALS
ARZ DBACKS
Fri 9:40 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>100</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>PIT PIRATES
SF GIANTS
Fri 10:15 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>BOS RED SOX
BAL ORIOLES
Fri 7:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>NY YANKEES
CLE INDIANS
Fri 7:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>OAK A'S
DET TIGERS
Fri 7:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>TOR BLUE JAYS
KC ROYALS
Fri 8:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>95 </TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>SEA MARINERS
CHI WHITE SOX
Fri 8:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>TB DEVILRAYS
TEX RANGERS
Fri 8:35 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>97 </TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>MIN TWINS
LA ANGELS
Fri 10:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle><TD class=a1 align=left>Updated: Fri, Aug 10, 2007 at 12:45 PM EDT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
- Status
