Capping & Betting #101 - The Straight Scoop!

[pops69]

Jump and Zeeto. I think you guys missed the point. Everything is on this program. What was done in the past was-if someone found or has something that could be useful it simply was added to the program and done. That is the way it was and that is the way it should be.

That file is filled with pivot tables. Me personally I hate them. Great to find an answer but I just don't like to go to the well every day. I generally make my own file out of the big file. I find areas in the pivots that show great results. I simply add my own formula to the my own spreadsheet that just gives me that answer every day with out going to each pivot. Then I track those results by sectors. One sector is year to date the other is by a set amount of days. Tracking year to date sometimes you don't see the change for awhile but if you track by 14 days or 21 you see a slide almost immediate.

Another thing here and hope Pops comments. I find April a pain in the ass. Other than domes and down south the temp raised hell with pitchers and hitters as well. Take a Cy Young pitcher throwing when it is 40 degrees. Get my drift. I use those early months but eventually, and just a seat of the pants thing, I start my tracking without the cold months in there. All Star break is another. What works before does not work after. Just some general BS

pay attention to what ctp is saying. i'm providing a free car for everyone to use, and use the way they want vs the way i want. we all have diff needs with respect to data etc. also the more eyes and minds looking at the same subject creates many more questions that lead to adding additional data etc and makes everthing mo better

tks ctp

 

[pops69]

Ok, so jsut to get everything straight... you will post PDWS information every day in this thread that will contain the information for the previous days games. We can then put that into the spreadsheet and use to it make our analysis.

Could you, or someone else break down some factors that I need to look for when i'm looking at an over-under - or a linescore. I can tell by your spreadsheet there is a ton of information, so what do you really use when analyzing a matchup. Could you maybe go through your thought process for a game? I understand this is probably very complicated... Perhaps you could point me in the direction of a good discussion on this, or even a book that I could buy to get a good basis..

Much Appreciated
-Brian

i'll post the information the day b4 for the next days game. everyone needs it well in advance so that they can start data analysis etc

key data for o/u are day/night. ump, temp (humidity not provided) era and whip and pig pen era.

 

[twjd]

Oh yea the pivot tables, putting all the data together like you want it, the good thing is everybody likes something different, so when find something that is working, post it, is this correct Pops.

 

[pops69]

Oh yea the pivot tables, putting all the data together like you want it, the good thing is everybody likes something different, so when find something that is working, post it, is this correct Pops.

yep. always open to adding additional data as long as there a ready source for data mining. as for the pivot tables. it's very easy with just a couple of clicks of the mouse to look a existing data the way you want. but that requires a little knowledge of using them

that's way i really want as many people to d/l the spreadsheets and ask as many questions as possible so that they can understand what's available and how easy it is to use

no way i can thing of everything. getting to the point were it's at today has taken almost 5 years and maybe 1000 hours

 

[ljump12]

Just wondering, have you tried creating a predictive model, like perhaps a multiple linear regression using the stats that you mentioned to come up with an over-under score? Or do you just kinda eyeball them, and then judge what you think.

 

[CTP]

Jump, someone tried that back when Pops had his old thread. Don't remember his handle. He actually put in the complete roster for both teams and somehow it gave a score. I believe he only did Seattle as that was his team. Worked then did not work. I think it had merit I just could not figure the complete thing out. Might still have some of the data if you want to take a stab at it.

Pops, 1000 hours. I think you are missing a multiplier there like maybe 10 times or 20 times maybe more.

 

[kmad]

are you going to be capping baseball games throughout the season?

 

[pops69]

Just wondering, have you tried creating a predictive model, like perhaps a multiple linear regression using the stats that you mentioned to come up with an over-under score? Or do you just kinda eyeball them, and then judge what you think.

we came close in cbb. my opinion is that even with 300,000 data points of light it would be about 1% of what needed to get there. just way to many variables to come close at this point in time to make those type of projections. but bucketing your not betting the board and have a high probability of successful outcomes. but have at. a journey of 1000 miles starts with the 1st step. right now is decent for what i'm doing and looking for although always adding as well as deleting to fine tune etc

 

[pops69]

Jump, someone tried that back when Pops had his old thread. Don't remember his handle. He actually put in the complete roster for both teams and somehow it gave a score. I believe he only did Seattle as that was his team. Worked then did not work. I think it had merit I just could not figure the complete thing out. Might still have some of the data if you want to take a stab at it.

Pops, 1000 hours. I think you are missing a multiplier there like maybe 10 times or 20 times maybe more.

i cant recall his handle either. he worked for one of the tv stations in that area

agree, might be a little low on the hours put in. i didnt count all the free chineese help from wisc and chig areas. lol

 

[pops69]

are you going to be capping baseball games throughout the season?

i will provide all the pdws schedule daily for every game being played in the format and spreadsheet shown in the example that i uploaded in post #9. you also have the master mlb program that i uploaded in post #12

other key pieces of info will come from people that post in the thread as well as myself from time to time on something that fall from email or phone heaven

 

[twjd]

i cant recall his handle either. he worked for one of the tv stations in that area

agree, might be a little low on the hours put in. i didnt count all the free chineese help from wisc and chig areas. lol

I think it was MOFO

 

[pops69]

I think it was MOFO

close. it was MLFP. i still have one of his power ratings files that he used in conjunction with the master data for his projections. i never really used it as i'm doing different shit

below is one of his files (if he's still around he'll prob sue me for giving out his info. sorry mlfp

shit no file attached. hate it when that happens. i'll try again

 

[pops69]

MLFP key variable data

i needed to compress the file. it should be here this time as a winrar compressed file below:

p.s. i will not be supporting this format, but feel free to run with it if you want

enjoy

 

[pops69]

2009 over/under is 200,000 -295 over

were looking at less than 2 weeks to the start of ball. important for as many as possible to d/l the data and spreadsheet and ask as many questions as possible. there still time to add things that might be important w/o much effort. adding later and trying to collect past info takes a great deal of effort. i dont have time to do much of anything else. i spend almost every min of the day from the time i get up to when the last game starts working on my betting opportunities, so little is left for anything else

so post em if you go em

 

[woodypaige]

Great to see you back Buddy!:toast:

 

[Atlanta1978]

Pops never thought about the angle of conferences trying to get more teams in. Very interesting. Took an L with FSU. Duke smokin' hot from 3. Found something that might be of help when you fill out your brackets. No team has ever lost in a conference quarterfinal and gone on to capture a national championship. (according to the NY Times). Thats Pitt, Uconn and Oklahoma this year. Lookin forward to the thread pops. Gotta let Woof know yer back.

Heres the link to the article if you guys are interested...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/sports/ncaabasketball/15conference.html?ref=sports

 

[jaf303]

any guidance for a guy w/ a mac?

i can not figure out how to translate the .rar file into a readable format. no idea how to get the winrar for mac working....

any help appreciated


:modemman:

 

[Atlanta1978]

any guidance for a guy w/ a mac?

i can not figure out how to translate the .rar file into a readable format. no idea how to get the winrar for mac working....

any help appreciated


:modemman:

http://www.unrarx.com/

 

[jaf303]

got it .... thanks!

 

[pops69]

Pops never thought about the angle of conferences trying to get more teams in. Very interesting. Took an L with FSU. Duke smokin' hot from 3. Found something that might be of help when you fill out your brackets. No team has ever lost in a conference quarterfinal and gone on to capture a national championship. (according to the NY Times). Thats Pitt, Uconn and Oklahoma this year. Lookin forward to the thread pops. Gotta let Woof know yer back.

Heres the link to the article if you guys are interested...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/sports/ncaabasketball/15conference.html?ref=sports

good info atl

fyi - items like this are things to keep your your eyes open for. they can lead to opportunities along with key injuries, susp etc. always look for angles. just like the multiple conf teams in the show

tks