Capping & Betting #101 - The Straight Scoop!

[ljump12]

Pops, I really appreciate what you're doing. I am a programmer myself, and also have a lot of data mining expereience. I also have a script that pulls every pitch from the MLB Gameday database, and I have every Pitch from the past two years (About 2 Million) in a huge database. I think i could write something to automate what needs to be added to the excel sheet, and perhaps we could make this a whole lot easier. Or if there is more information you want, I can go through my database, and teach you how to search through it.

I can do all the data stuff, anything you need.. I just don't know how to "Use" the data. So if you'd be willing to help me, and teach me -- I could get you the data in an automated fashion - and help you with that end. Don't know if thats an ignorant offer, but figure I'd put it out there.

I'd love to talk, either you can reply here, or PM me.
If you want, i also have AIM, and G-mail chat -- let me know!

 

[zeeto]

Pops, I really appreciate what you're doing. I am a programmer myself, and also have a lot of data mining expereience. I also have a script that pulls every pitch from the MLB Gameday database, and I have every Pitch from the past two years (About 2 Million) in a huge database. I think i could write something to automate what needs to be added to the excel sheet, and perhaps we could make this a whole lot easier. Or if there is more information you want, I can go through my database, and teach you how to search through it.

I can do all the data stuff, anything you need.. I just don't know how to "Use" the data. So if you'd be willing to help me, and teach me -- I could get you the data in an automated fashion - and help you with that end. Don't know if thats an ignorant offer, but figure I'd put it out there.

I'd love to talk, either you can reply here, or PM me.
If you want, i also have AIM, and G-mail chat -- let me know!

This is something I was thinking of doing. I have some knowledge in computer programming (java only), but I am able to get most things done with applescript (used in mac os x) and was considering trying to set it up to gather all my info on its own every day. Would there be a downside to this at all? It would automate everything and allow almost 100% of my time for analysis of data.

 

[CTP]

Jump and Zeeto. I think you guys missed the point. Everything is on this program. What was done in the past was-if someone found or has something that could be useful it simply was added to the program and done. That is the way it was and that is the way it should be.

That file is filled with pivot tables. Me personally I hate them. Great to find an answer but I just don't like to go to the well every day. I generally make my own file out of the big file. I find areas in the pivots that show great results. I simply add my own formula to the my own spreadsheet that just gives me that answer every day with out going to each pivot. Then I track those results by sectors. One sector is year to date the other is by a set amount of days. Tracking year to date sometimes you don't see the change for awhile but if you track by 14 days or 21 you see a slide almost immediate.

Another thing here and hope Pops comments. I find April a pain in the ass. Other than domes and down south the temp raised hell with pitchers and hitters as well. Take a Cy Young pitcher throwing when it is 40 degrees. Get my drift. I use those early months but eventually, and just a seat of the pants thing, I start my tracking without the cold months in there. All Star break is another. What works before does not work after. Just some general BS

 

[whalewager]

whale: a while back i had a ups package sezed by the ATF (yea drugs) do they keep people in memphis or was it internal people that call them or the local shipper

tks

jesus christ man...why are you asking me?


internal people call im sure

 

[pops69]

wow, finally some very good questions. back in a few with the answers

whale: cause you pic said you own a ups store

 

[whalewager]

oh...that makes sense

I better change that

 

[ljump12]

Jump and Zeeto. I think you guys missed the point. Everything is on this program. What was done in the past was-if someone found or has something that could be useful it simply was added to the program and done. That is the way it was and that is the way it should be.

That file is filled with pivot tables. Me personally I hate them. Great to find an answer but I just don't like to go to the well every day. I generally make my own file out of the big file. I find areas in the pivots that show great results. I simply add my own formula to the my own spreadsheet that just gives me that answer every day with out going to each pivot. Then I track those results by sectors. One sector is year to date the other is by a set amount of days. Tracking year to date sometimes you don't see the change for awhile but if you track by 14 days or 21 you see a slide almost immediate.

Another thing here and hope Pops comments. I find April a pain in the ass. Other than domes and down south the temp raised hell with pitchers and hitters as well. Take a Cy Young pitcher throwing when it is 40 degrees. Get my drift. I use those early months but eventually, and just a seat of the pants thing, I start my tracking without the cold months in there. All Star break is another. What works before does not work after. Just some general BS

Ahh i see...

The information from each game still has to go into the spreadsheet somehow correct? From what i can tell, do we import each game into the AL_NL Combined Sheet, and then the other sheets go ahead and use that information, or am i thinking of it all wrong?

(Thanks for being patient as i figure this out, i'm very eager to get a system going - I loooove statistics)

 

[Atlanta1978]

Pop-a-reno...

Heard anything on the Duke/FSU game? Watched the spread go up 1.5 points in a few hours. I imagine its the Duke name that attracts people or maybe someone from the FSU team was caught naked in Buckhead last night and is suspended....let me know if you've heard anything.

 

[ljump12]

Now that i look at it more, i can't seem to figure out where you put the information from each game in... It's deffinatly not the AL_NL tab, as that is using information from other sheets.

After each game, do you just go back to the sheets and update CAT Pivots, Victory Margin etc. by hand?

EDIT:: WAit, i think it is in the AL_NL Combined Sheet....

 

[pops69]

What are the M1, M2 and so on
<table style="width: 102pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="136"><colgroup><col style="width: 102pt;" width="136"></colgroup><tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl69" style="border-style: solid none none solid; border-color: black rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) black; border-width: 0.5pt medium medium 0.5pt; width: 102pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17" width="136">M1</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl70" style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) black; border-width: medium medium medium 0.5pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">M2</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl70" style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) black; border-width: medium medium medium 0.5pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">M3</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl70" style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) black; border-width: medium medium medium 0.5pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">M4</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl70" style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) black; border-width: medium medium medium 0.5pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">M5</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl70" style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) black; border-width: medium medium medium 0.5pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">M6</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl70" style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) black; border-width: medium medium medium 0.5pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">P1</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl70" style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) black; border-width: medium medium medium 0.5pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">P2</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl70" style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) black; border-width: medium medium medium 0.5pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">P3</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl70" style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) black; border-width: medium medium medium 0.5pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">P4</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl70" style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) black; border-width: medium medium medium 0.5pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">P5</td></tr><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl70" style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) rgb(240, 240, 240) black; border-width: medium medium medium 0.5pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">P6</td></tr></tbody></table>

finally some meat. very good tw. the key to understanding these is that when you data mine, much of the information is not usable as you have way to many different data points to try to bracket etc. so in the master there are 5 key areas where i lump key items into buckets. those buckets that i setup are in col DA thru DD rows 2 to 33. i'll use the 1st one LM CATS as an example. row 2 DC and DD show 1 to 9. and in that example i'm looking and ML moves so that macro takes the opening and closing ML calc the diff between the two and put them in a bucket for me to look at. in the master if you want to change the buckets just put diff numbers in those boxes and re-run the macro and you can see you changes in the pivot tables. i the HF HD M and P are just simple abv H being Home F Fav D dog M minus P is plus so on the m that you mentioned i was looking at the diff between the two starting pitchers ERA. with everything always being measured vs the home starting pitcher.

it's not as complex as it might look. just remember you look to the pivot tables for your analysis and not the AL & NL Combined Tabs as thats only were the data is located

keep em coming

 

[pops69]

oh...that makes sense

I better change that

mo better. do you recommend embril

 

[pops69]

Pops, I really appreciate what you're doing. I am a programmer myself, and also have a lot of data mining expereience. I also have a script that pulls every pitch from the MLB Gameday database, and I have every Pitch from the past two years (About 2 Million) in a huge database. I think i could write something to automate what needs to be added to the excel sheet, and perhaps we could make this a whole lot easier. Or if there is more information you want, I can go through my database, and teach you how to search through it.

I can do all the data stuff, anything you need.. I just don't know how to "Use" the data. So if you'd be willing to help me, and teach me -- I could get you the data in an automated fashion - and help you with that end. Don't know if thats an ignorant offer, but figure I'd put it out there.

I'd love to talk, either you can reply here, or PM me.
If you want, i also have AIM, and G-mail chat -- let me know!

i would rather do most in the thread so everyone can learn as much as possible. not that i want to make everyone a programmer, more interested in getting people to think out of the box and start being creative vs looking for losers picks to follow:

from russia with love is my main prog guy. works for the kgb, and almost nothing he cant do. all of my data mining is done in my PDWS (none of the macro's are included in that outline that i posted) key is to find a good source where you can pull data.

an example of an easy on would be:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/gamecenter/recap/NCAAF_20081125_WMI@BALLST

vs this one where you can only do a screen paste
http://www.donbest.com/EN/main/ncaab/ncaabk_scores.html

both are easy, but in the 1st example i never have to go to the site to collect the data vs having to on the other

the one item i have never been able to automate is game time humidity. temp was easy as it's in the box score. humidity is the one of the top 5 most important factors in O/U in baseball

really not sure how i would use the pitch count data other than combining with umps that had small or large zones would keep starting pitchers in or out of game sooner

stay on board. need someone to keep my angles in line

tks

 

[pops69]

zeeto: to me java is the anti crist. it's great for notifications and updates. sports options (the prem line service on this site) is great. couldnt live w/o it. but with respect to data mining i fucken hate it. can't capture it or do shit with it. a few of my OS are starting to use it as well and it causes me nothing but fits as i capture all the lines from all of them for scalping opportunities. right now none of my guys know how to grab anything from it other than blank air

gl

 

[Gravy]

Pops,Are you still taking weather updates and doing wind speeds into factor when doing this ?

 

[pops69]

gravy: what's up. one of the last guys to see me in vegas land. i do automated temp, still trying to find an easy way for humidity. as for wind it only matters in few parks. and if the right numbers and pitchers come up i'll look at those individually. i think your on top of the key weather factors in clev esp with the day vs night shit on the o/u so. if you see them line up let us know. stay out of trouble pony man

gl

 

[ljump12]

Pops, from what i can tell (And tell me if i'm off), I need to find information for columns A through AS and put that into the AL_NLCombined Sheet.

The spreadsheet will then calculate the rest of the information?

 

[Gravy]

gravy: what's up. one of the last guys to see me in vegas land. i do automated temp, still trying to find an easy way for humidity. as for wind it only matters in few parks. and if the right numbers and pitchers come up i'll look at those individually. i think your on top of the key weather factors in clev esp with the day vs night shit on the o/u so. if you see them line up let us know. stay out of trouble pony man

gl

Pops,Do you still have the same email address or did you change it ? Havent been doing much in the ponies lately as I havent had the time but have been looking at the preps races and wouldnt be shocked at all if you have a nice price horse come Kentucky Derby Day.

 

[ljump12]

gravy: what's up. one of the last guys to see me in vegas land. i do automated temp, still trying to find an easy way for humidity. as for wind it only matters in few parks. and if the right numbers and pitchers come up i'll look at those individually. i think your on top of the key weather factors in clev esp with the day vs night shit on the o/u so. if you see them line up let us know. stay out of trouble pony man

gl

The boxscore has a city, state as to where the game is held correct? We can feed that into a weather API that will shoot back any gametime weather information we want. I'm not familiar with PDWS, so i'm not sure exactly how you're automating getting your information.

 

[pops69]

Pops, from what i can tell (And tell me if i'm off), I need to find information for columns A through AS and put that into the AL_NLCombined Sheet.

The spreadsheet will then calculate the rest of the information?

yes. and all of it comes directly from my daily PDWS so it's a copy paste from that. i could do them both in the same but i just dont like to shit where i eat. right now i'm planning on posting a pdws the day b4 for the complete schedule once the OL are available. this way it gives everyone almost 24 hours to start any analysis. right now ive not decided if i'll do all the daily final data. eg closing lines and score. if you d/l the pdws layout you will see the which is the b4 and after as well as calc fields

 

[ljump12]

Ok, so jsut to get everything straight... you will post PDWS information every day in this thread that will contain the information for the previous days games. We can then put that into the spreadsheet and use to it make our analysis.

Could you, or someone else break down some factors that I need to look for when i'm looking at an over-under - or a linescore. I can tell by your spreadsheet there is a ton of information, so what do you really use when analyzing a matchup. Could you maybe go through your thought process for a game? I understand this is probably very complicated... Perhaps you could point me in the direction of a good discussion on this, or even a book that I could buy to get a good basis..

Much Appreciated
-Brian