Can You Fold AA PREFLOP?

[theswami]

I'm surprised to see so much debate about this. IMO, deciding whether or not to fold AA preflop is a VERY personal decision.

FWIW, here's my position.

1) In a ring game, NEVER (assuming the game is not being cheated). With that said, I almost mucked KK preflop in a live NL game a few weeks ago because I was certain the player had AA. I was at the table with this guy for 3 hours and THOUGHT he wouldn't make the move he did with anything less than AA. I didn't trust my read and went called his all-in bet and he showed AA. The good news is that he said he would have made the same play with QQ-AA so I was right about his hand but incorrect about my assumption regarding his play.

2) In tourney play definitely. Most of this has been covered already but near/on the bubble I would certainly consider mucking AA depending on chip stack, position, places paid, and amount paid.

Risk tolerance is the reason I think the decision is personal. For some, breaking even in a tourney is better than losing. For others, they would much rather try to accumulate chips and take a shot at winning (or a substantial payout) than playing conservatively just to make the money. What this comes down to is how much are you willing to lose to take a shot at winning.

If one paid 10k to enter a tourney and ended up being on/near the bubble with AA with a few people already in the pot:

A) You knew you could fold your way to make the money but probably not get enough chips to win.

B) You can get your money in the pot when you have the best of it and potentially lose 10k but if you win you improve you chances to win exponentially.

There are some who would choose A and some who would choose B. NEITHER PLAYER WOULD BE WRONG!!!! What it comes down to is that the money means different things to different people.

On a related note, I also think you can perform an expected value calculation in these type of situations but there are so many unknowns that it would be difficult to come up with an answer that is more accurate than just knowing your personal position.

Cadillac Man, IMO you are a true gambler. There are many situations in tourney play where folding AA preflop is a good idea. The bottom line, is that you would rather take a shot at winning a lot of money than assuring yourself of a smaller amount.

 

[Woody0]

I will try and find out how much it changes based on multiple opponents, or rather if that could ever be figured out. It sounds complicated.

AA heads up versus multi-way can be simulated by Mike Caro's Poker Probe. You have to designate the opponents hands and the software is archaic by today's standards but is a great tool.

I just simulated AsAh against KsKh, JdTd, 5d5c all-in pre-flop. My results for 100,000 hands were AA 50.56%; JdTd 18.26%, 55 15.94%; and KK 15.24%.

This essentially substantiates what you have been saying. Against 3 opponents who have reasonable hands AA is just about a coin toss situation.

If you can get a copy it's worth it just for checking how much of an underdog your suckout opponent was. In the case that started this thread AsAh against TdTc (to maximize the chances for TT) won over 80% of the time.

 

[theswami]

AA heads up versus multi-way can be simulated by Mike Caro's Poker Probe. You have to designate the opponents hands and the software is archaic by today's standards but is a great tool.

I just simulated AsAh against KsKh, JdTd, 5d5c all-in pre-flop. My results for 100,000 hands were AA 50.56%; JdTd 18.26%, 55 15.94%; and KK 15.24%.

This essentially substantiates what you have been saying. Against 3 opponents who have reasonable hands AA is just about a coin toss situation.

If you can get a copy it's worth it just for checking how much of an underdog your suckout opponent was. In the case that started this thread AsAh against TdTc (to maximize the chances for TT) won over 80% of the time.

What makes this more interesting is expected value. While AA is a coin flip in the situation you describe calculating the expected value of going all-in versus not going all-in would yield interesting results. My guess is that in many cases going all-in would still be worth it even if you KNEW you only had a 50% chance of winning the hand.

 

[LastCardLouis]

Yes, Late and leading a super satellite.

It is the final table of a super satellite. Four seats to be won, seven players still alive. You have a big stack, chip leader or number two.

Small stack in the big blind. Another big stack goes all in.

Don 't even look at your cards. Fold. If you do look and find AA, you risk being crippled by playing and losing.

Let the other big stack knock out the small one, you will coast in to a seat anyway.

Even if you need the odd win to avoid being blinded away, only attack the small stacks, avoid the big ones.

 

[TheCondition]

Did you make love the night you got married?

 

[sherman]

this thread will forever be at the top of the poker room threads....


:digit:

 

[cadillacman]

One thing I can't seem to understand, is that all this talk about folding AA pre-flop seems to be centered around being on the bubble of a large or small amount of a tourney payoff. One thing is for certain if you in that position more than likely the blinds and possibly even the antes are high. So what if your pocket cards never get as good as those or you get marginal ones at best where it really does become a gamble to call you can still get eaten up by the blinds and antes as well. Getting pocket rockets in a position where people have raised or gone all in before you is a hold em players dream. If if you have a big or a short stack there no better starting hand in the world. It makes me think by folding, the player is scared. Scared money never wins. He's assuming, for whatever reason, these AA can't hold up before the flop. Once the flop falls it's a different ball game. More thinking comes in to play. But don't fold holding two automatic machine guns while your opponent is holding a rifle before a shot is even fired. Ask yourselves this question, If folding AA pre-flop is such a smart move in certain situations, how come in all the poker we've seen on tv with these pocket cams, never once was it done?

 

[maheha]

cadillac, while you may never see cards as good as pocket rockets, it is guarenteed money to fold when two players are all in in front of you.. somebody is going to get knocked out, and if not, someone is going to be left with an extremely low chip count, now if you prefer to go out and say you didnt win the money because you took a bad beat, then thats fine, i would prefer to say i made a fold preflop that paid off and helped me get into the money, maybe i would have won that hand and won the tournament, but I would rather take guarenteed money than a maybe.

 

[BoZZi]

a couple of weeks ago i was playing a satellite for the shootingstar at paradise poker and when we got down to 4 people (they gave away two seats) i was second in chips....with one very low shortstack.....i was in BB and had AA and the chip leader moves in on me from the button , i thought for a second and called him....he ended up having KQ suited and rivered a flush on me.....the idiot i am i called instead of sitting on my chips and tryin to get the two others out....i know the chip leader is an idiot for making that move but im even a bigger one for calling.

 

[cadillacman]

Don't waste oppurtunites.

 

[theswami]

Cadillac Man-

In a previous post you mentioned the talk about the bubble and poker on TV and the fact that "we" haven't seen AA folded.

1) We have not seen much poker on TV in relation to the hands that were played.

2) Other than the WSOP early rounds, most of the poker you watch on TV shows action when players are in the money already. When bubble action was shown (WSOP on ESPN) either a) there wasn't an opportunity to show a big laydown preflop or b) they didn't show it.

You are making a HUGE mistake by not realizing that there are times when AA should be mucked. In a ring game, never muck them. In a tourney, this thread shows many examples of when mucking them is a smart play. You are right, scared money never wins. Mucking AA preflop in a tourney under the right circumstances is just good poker.
TV is best thing that has happened for good poker players. MANY players use it as a guide for real play when the stuff on TV bears no resemblance to what actually happens in 99.9% of the games that average Joe plays in.

 

[theswami]

a couple of weeks ago i was playing a satellite for the shootingstar at paradise poker and when we got down to 4 people (they gave away two seats) i was second in chips....with one very low shortstack.....i was in BB and had AA and the chip leader moves in on me from the button , i thought for a second and called him....he ended up having KQ suited and rivered a flush on me.....the idiot i am i called instead of sitting on my chips and tryin to get the two others out....i know the chip leader is an idiot for making that move but im even a bigger one for calling.

Bozzi-

The outcome sucks but I would not say that you are a "bigger" idiot for calling. How much was your lead over the 3rd largest stack? What were the blinds in relation to the two short stacks? How well were the two short stacks playing?

IMHO, the big stack here is a complete moron. To move all-in preflop with KQs in that situation is such a bad play. His hand was good but was stealing the blinds really worth it?

Here's my view, if the 3rd stack was fairly close in size to you, this is an auto call. You still have to knock out 2 to get the seat and while getting the short stack was a given, you would have had to play some hands in order to knock out the 3rd stack. The only time I would muck AA preflop is if I was a virtual lock to either move up significantly in $$ or make it to the money.

 

[BoZZi]

theswami,

Chip leader had about 140 000 in chips, i was second with 110 000, third had around 50 000 and fourth had around 25 000---half what the guy in third had....blinds were 4-8K and the guy with 50 000 was basically only going all in....it was either muck or go all in for him... i think if the chip leader was just a little smarter we couldve worked their stacks slowely and surely but like you see he risks 110 000 of his chips to pick up a measely 16 000 or so with the antes

mistake made....i still got my seat with a live satellite but it couldve been $10 000 instead.....

 

[theswami]

theswami,

Chip leader had about 140 000 in chips, i was second with 110 000, third had around 50 000 and fourth had around 25 000---half what the guy in third had....blinds were 4-8K and the guy with 50 000 was basically only going all in....it was either muck or go all in for him... i think if the chip leader was just a little smarter we couldve worked their stacks slowely and surely but like you see he risks 110 000 of his chips to pick up a measely 16 000 or so with the antes

mistake made....i still got my seat with a live satellite but it couldve been $10 000 instead.....

Congrats!!

I would have probably mucked given the stack sizes posted but I do not think your move was horrible. The big stack's play was so poor in so many ways. Why would he screw with the only other stack at the table that could hurt him?!

His play is just another reason why online poker is great.

 

[BoZZi]

but i see u see my point....if it was live i wouldnt even look at my cards and muck them

yeah his move was stupid but i think mine was too.

 

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

If you're not going to take a chance when the odds are 85% in your favor, regardless of the circumstances, then you might as well not even play. You don't get that king of percentage too often in poker.

 

[cadillacman]

If you're not going to take a chance when the odds are 85% in your favor, regardless of the circumstances, then you might as well not even play. You don't get that king of percentage too often in poker.

That's what I've been trying to say all along.

 

[BoZZi]

yeah if u see 3 people go all in in front of u and u look down in the BB and see aces as a shortstack on the bubble of the main event.....im pretty sure you would still call even if u are only 50% to win the hand at best....thats just stupid....i've mucked kings 3 times preflop in my life.....or in the last 3 years that i've been playing poker.....every single time the other guy had aces.....now if u cant muck big hands then u shouldnt be playing.

 

[Anonymous1]

for me it would be as simple as how im i running the last 10-12 hands...obviously the AA preflop is a monster...but the difference in a player and winner is the latter...most know the odds or should...having a feel for the cards...the particular game...its players and so forth is the factor here...

 

[WVU]

classic thread here in the poker room. Good read with great variations of opinions