"well first off, i didnt mean 50 players from the start, i meant 50 players left, and who says the odds arent in my favor? I know that if im in that position and three guys go all in before me, folding guarentees me at least 40g more than i would get if i risk playing AA. 100 percent guarentee is more favorable then 75-80 percent"
I wasn't referring to your post, I was referring to dshotda1's post. Where he was only 5 minutes in.
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I wasn't referring to your post, I was referring to dshotda1's post. Where he was only 5 minutes in.
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Your point about being on the bubble for 49th place is entirely correct. I'm not sure what you mean by "...and one person has an ace, then obviously it goes down" though. If you have AA versus A-anything, you are a huge favorite over that person holding the mega-dominated hand. They'd be better of holding 2-7 offsuit, I think!maheha said:
I see what your saying about the bubble of 49th and 50th pl. But if your holding AA, you raise pre-flop and then are put to an all in you have to call and let the cards fall where they may. The odds are greatly in your favor.If you lose so be it. A bad beat. Not a bad call or a bad read, just a bad beat. You have to live w/it then if the catch cards on the flop. And yes, folding that hand imo is playing scared and playing poor. When do you think you would get a better opportunity then this situation? What it if never comes and your stack gets eaten up by the blinds and the antes? Once that guy put you all-in and you flipped over the aces, he probably sh it a brick.
It takes a rare set of circumstances to make it right to fold aces preflop as Sklansky has already pointed out. None of us will probably ever be in such a situation in our lifetime.
This debate would be more compelling if you had pocket kings. Of course a lot of it depends on the size of the stacks, the players, the blinds, the stage of the tourney and the payouts.
This debate would be more compelling if you had pocket kings. Of course a lot of it depends on the size of the stacks, the players, the blinds, the stage of the tourney and the payouts.
Well hookandcrook, there are certain circumstances where the odds are not in your favor enough that would make it a valuable play, like the bubble situation. Why risk extra chips when if you lay it down your **guarenteed** to win more money... AA is the best PRE FLOP hand. its not guarenteed, Ill take the guarenteed money over AA preflop anyday.
This AA talk was just a situation that really made me think, I knew i should have folded, Which i did not.....AND LOST. Just cause i thought about folding does not make one weak. Actually it would have made me a stronger player in my mind.,,,I know what I am capable of, ......Since this play , I have played in a few multi-table tourneys and done quite well....In the last 2 weeks I have 2 1st places, 2 3rds a 5th and plenty of money finishes all with 250 people or more.
All I can say is NEVER say NEVER...Different situations can come up where its wise to fold...
I hvae fold good hands preflop and didnt think twice...1010,QQ, and other smaller Pocket Pairs and more time than wrong I made the right choice...So you just need to be selective and play your position.
Dshotda1
All I can say is NEVER say NEVER...Different situations can come up where its wise to fold...
I hvae fold good hands preflop and didnt think twice...1010,QQ, and other smaller Pocket Pairs and more time than wrong I made the right choice...So you just need to be selective and play your position.
Dshotda1
I'd go all in with AA all day. I actually had a similar situation in a multi 30.00 tourney with 800 plus people in. There were a little over 100 people left and I was sitting dead in the middle as far as chip count. I got pocket cowboys and went all in. Some dude calls me with pocket 7s and catches a set. Pissed me off to no end, top 80 got paid. I wasnt so pissed off that I lost 30 bucks, but moreso that the other guy risked his stack on pocket 7s and hit and the fact that I had been sitting there for so long and had played probably my best poker to date because of other bad beats that I had already taken during that tourney and survived. For instance I had J-10 and J-10 fell on the flop, some guy that was short stacked went all in and I call him. He's holding A-10 and catches an A on the river for a better 2 pair. That's just one of about 5 bad beats I had during that tourney. Finished 112 out of 800+ and was extremely pissed.
maheha said:
your kidding right? circumstances aside, which I can't think of any that would ever make me fold that hand, a scared, losing player folds pocket rockets. call the bet and if the flop falls against you so be it. all the reasoning and spin you want to put on why it should be folded is ridiculous. No logic in world can justify this no matter what you say.
cadillac man said:
Like I said, would you rather have a guarenteed minimal 50g, or take that risk of losing the hand to worse hands.Me earlier in this post said:
So lets look at this theoretical situation one last time.
If you fold, the worst possible thing that happens is the lowest chip stack of the three wins the hand, and they all remain in the tournament, two of which now have short stacks. The best possible thing that will happen would be that the largest stack wins, knocking out two players and putting you in the guarenteed money.
What would probably happen, no matter who wins, the remaining small stacks if any are blinded out within the next 10 hands.
If you call, the worst possible thing that happens is you lose and your out of the tournament winning only your buy in back. The best thing that could happen is you win and quad-up.
Hypothetically, your opponents would probably have one of the following.
AKs, KK, QQ, AQs, AJs, JJ, TT....(and thats stretching it)
So i will use a hand simulator just to prove to you that its not worth it.
Lets say the best situation for you would be if your opponents have AQs, AKs, and KK/QQ(both would be undercard pairs with one already out)...
So in your BEST situation (assuming opponents arent sharing same hands, for example, playing against AQs, and KK KK would be the best possible situation if opponents have same starting hands, but lets assume they dont.) You are only a 68% favorite in you BEST situation.. Thats not good enough for me to risk a likely 40g.
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 736840 67.85 337733 31.10 11435 1.05 0.682
Ad Qd 123978 11.42 950595 87.53 11435 1.05 0.117
Ah Kh 119329 10.99 955244 87.96 11435 1.05 0.113
Ks Kc 94426 8.69 987659 90.94 3923 0.36 0.088
______
against Big Slick Suited, Queens and Jacks you would be still just a 56% favorite..
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boardscards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Ac 611251 56.28 462782 42.61 11975 1.10 0.567
Ah Kh 90471 8.33 983562 90.57 11975 1.10 0.088
Qc Qd 199894 18.41 882332 81.25 3782 0.35 0.185
Js Jh 172417 15.88 909809 83.78 3782 0.35 0.160
______
and finally, against KK, QQ, and JJ you would only be a 55% favorite
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boardscards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Ac 592200 54.53 489385 45.06 4423 0.41 0.546
Kc Kh 191885 17.67 889700 81.92 4423 0.41 0.178
Qd Qh 162545 14.97 919040 84.63 4423 0.41 0.151
Js Jd 134955 12.43 946630 87.17 4423 0.41 0.125
In all three of these situations, Im still in favor of letting them battle it out and Ill fold...
If you wouldnt, you obviously dont understand the concept of actual money and how it differs from assumed money and you have really dont grasp the idea that its OK to fold somtimes.
What Im saying is, if you disagree, then as far as im concerned you are the type of player who uses bad beats as an excuse when in reality its sometimes the wrong play to call, no matter what you have.
DSHOTA, I play live tournament poker all of the time as well on the net. I am VERY FAMILIAR with when one should fold and when you should not!
I believe that you said that you were up 5,000 chips. If that is correct, then that is hardly a great position at the time with so many chips in the tournament. Your 5,000 chip advantage isnt that great early or late! The ONLY PLAY in that instance is to go all in against AS MANY players as you can. If 9 people call in front of you, then you call all 9 of them. Your 5,000 chips ahead only gives you about a 1-2% better chance to win than when you started the tournament. Winning your ace-ace hand will at least double those odds or more if more than one person calls.
I mean it was only a $100 tournament. I have won many a tournments online with my biggest win being $12,000 and that was for second place. In that tournament, I folded ace-king SUITED 2 times in the final table. Of course both times it would have lost since they have pocket pairs. But ace-ace will NEVER get folded by me unless i am within 5 places or so from the money and I am shortstacked.
The other day in a live tournament, I was in the final 2 tables with only the final 10 players getting paid. I was in about 9th place or so with only 16 people left. I actually folded ace-king 2 times in that event as well within the last 15 hands before the final table. One time it would have won and the other time I would have lost an all in against the bigger chip leader. Now this time, I made the final table with 2 chips. Two 5,000 chips is that I had and I still finished in 7th place. But then again, 6-10th paid the same amount.
But the moral of the story is this, NEVER FOLD POCKET ACES OR POCKET KINGS with over 1/2 of the players still left in the event!! If you do, then your days of winning tournaments in the long run will come to an end VERY QUICKLY! You made the right play, and anyway, the entry fee wasnt very high for this tournament anyway.
I believe that you said that you were up 5,000 chips. If that is correct, then that is hardly a great position at the time with so many chips in the tournament. Your 5,000 chip advantage isnt that great early or late! The ONLY PLAY in that instance is to go all in against AS MANY players as you can. If 9 people call in front of you, then you call all 9 of them. Your 5,000 chips ahead only gives you about a 1-2% better chance to win than when you started the tournament. Winning your ace-ace hand will at least double those odds or more if more than one person calls.
I mean it was only a $100 tournament. I have won many a tournments online with my biggest win being $12,000 and that was for second place. In that tournament, I folded ace-king SUITED 2 times in the final table. Of course both times it would have lost since they have pocket pairs. But ace-ace will NEVER get folded by me unless i am within 5 places or so from the money and I am shortstacked.
The other day in a live tournament, I was in the final 2 tables with only the final 10 players getting paid. I was in about 9th place or so with only 16 people left. I actually folded ace-king 2 times in that event as well within the last 15 hands before the final table. One time it would have won and the other time I would have lost an all in against the bigger chip leader. Now this time, I made the final table with 2 chips. Two 5,000 chips is that I had and I still finished in 7th place. But then again, 6-10th paid the same amount.
But the moral of the story is this, NEVER FOLD POCKET ACES OR POCKET KINGS with over 1/2 of the players still left in the event!! If you do, then your days of winning tournaments in the long run will come to an end VERY QUICKLY! You made the right play, and anyway, the entry fee wasnt very high for this tournament anyway.
