Your point about DFS and Sportsbetting being the same thing and if DFS is broken or not are two different subjects.
I never said anything about DFS not having issues.
I dont think PF said that either.
Your point about DFS and Sportsbetting being the same thing and if DFS is broken or not are two different subjects.
I never said anything about DFS not having issues.
I dont think PF said that either.
Ive already explained pats.
If sports betting ever gets a pass, i can already see the pitch in commercials from the books taking shots at DFS & aim at their players with something like.....
"Do you want to stay in the little leagues, or come play with the pros?!
Sports Betting....
Welcome to the big leagues!"
If sports betting ever gets a pass, i can already see the pitch in commercials from the books taking shots at DFS & aim at their players with something like.....
"Do you want to stay in the little leagues, or come play with the pros?!
Sports Betting....
Welcome to the big leagues!"
And Hache you need to remove yourself from this.
Just because you use DFS as a way to substitute real sports betting does not mean the vast majority do the same.
They are not even close to the same thing.
Not even close man.
Just because you use DFS as a way to substitute real sports betting does not mean the vast majority do the same.
They are not even close to the same thing.
Not even close man.
Not a chance.
I would not call DFS little league and Sports betting the big leagues.
Not even the same thing.
If you are saying it requires a better skill set and intelligence level to win at sports betting then DFS you would just simply be wrong.
Chop no offense but I'm beginning to think you're clueless on all of this and YOU might need to be the one to take leave on the subject. (You went there not me)
Let me explain why....
Always being a Fantasy Sports player AND Sports bettor, I know I had advantages other sports bettors didn't because to be honest, a DFS player probably monitors injuries more so.
Anyone who does both can confirm what I'm saying to be true.
But here's the Major difference between the two betting hobbies, being DFS & Sports Betting.
In DFS I can take Matt Forte, Doug Martin, and Adrian Peterson.
If those guys have a horrible week, there's a strong chance I'm going to lose.
In Sports Betting, I can play the spread on Chicago (Matt Forte), Tampa Bay (Doug Martin), and Minnesota (Adrian Peterson) and STILL win, even though those particular players didn't fare well, because I handicapped other areas of the game.
And THAT'S why Sports Betting is a bigger, better, and different animal compared to Fantasy.
To put a DFS player on the same level as a sports handicapper, or the DFS industry itself on the same level as sports betting, is just absurd...
I have no idea where anyone would get the idea that I think DFS is bulletproof. I think it is an extremely challenging business to navigate. You have the obvious major issues on the regulatory front regarding the states, taxation and then the federal behemoth looming. You have the fact it is a market based app where down the line when user rates stop growing exponentially it could be tough to achieve good win rates that the game dries up, etc.
It has some huge pros in it's favor like the fact the networks pay tons of $ to broadcast and it creates appointment TV, skill based gaming is popular, can play with friends, fantasy sports has been growing in popularity for 20+ years etc but it definitely is going to take some very bright guidance to bob and weave through the challenges.
I say this stuff consistently in every thread too but as you know it is easier for people to think they are correct about something if they can paint your opinion as something it really isn't.
So you think sports betting provides a better edge than DFS? I really don't even understand what you are saying.
I can't agree/disagree with you because I just am not sure what point you are trying to make anymore.
99% of people who bet on sports aren't "sports handicappers", they're just casual fans that lose 5% over time because the market is largely efficient.
Honestly Hache, just reading that post I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how EV does and doesn't work. I know you will go with "tons of posters will agree with me" but I actually think most of the posters that understand efficient/inefficient markets, how edges are attained, ROI, variance, etc will disagree with you.
The line on the Buccs game is largely priced efficiently, Doug Martin's intrinsic value is less likely to be priced efficiently. Doug Martin is a derivative of the Buccs game. Therefore betting on Doug Martin in fantasy could have more or less value than betting on the Buccs. That is where the edge comes from.
It would definitely not be easy for me to explain this concept to anyone so if you don't understand it that is fine. I think Choptalk and some other posters would likely understand it.
I'm not trying to disparage you in any way either, you just aren't really correct in your analysis.
The line on the Buccs game is largely priced efficiently, Doug Martin's intrinsic value is less likely to be priced efficiently. Doug Martin is a derivative of the Buccs game. Therefore betting on Doug Martin in fantasy could have more or less value than betting on the Buccs. That is where the edge comes from.
It would definitely not be easy for me to explain this concept to anyone so if you don't understand it that is fine. I think Choptalk and some other posters would likely understand it.
I'm not trying to disparage you in any way either, you just aren't really correct in your analysis.
I guess all of us have dabbled in both DFS and sports betting right?? I'll admit, DFS is interesting at first but after a while you will see that it is too way volatile and average joe doesn't have the time to analyze every player the way the pro's DFS players do. In the end, you are competing with other players directly and will realize that Avergae Joe's just do not have the research capabilities to keep up. Once the average Joe's are gone, and they will if sports betting is legalize, because sports betting is ultimately just fricking easier to bet on, then DFS will eventually die. It may not happen over night, but I would wager my money that DFS volume would decrease rather than increase.
The reason I say that is because if sports betting becomes legal it will remove all the gray area surrounding DFS in the process.
Just the new atmosphere of pro legal betting in general would raise the profile of DFS.
I am certain all the people who are in charge of Draft Kings and Fan Dual would love the day sports betting becomes legal.
Do you think they would ever hope for something that would hurt business?
I did not think so.
This is good analysis and I think could be a real issue for DFS in the long-term (my guess is the sites try to IPO and cash out if they see something like that being a problem)
I don't actually think those people would takeup sports betting though, think they would just likely find something else to do....
If sports betting is easier to bet on, then how is it the "big leagues"
It is basically a house vs player game with largely fixed odds. Not much different than blackjack for 98-99% of the population.
Why do you people have such a hard time understanding that for the most part we are talking about 2 very different kind of customers?
We are on a sportsbetting forum so I guess thats what makes it hard for some people to see the big picture.
But there are millions of people who enjoy fantasy who would never want anything to do with sports betting no matter how easy or legal it ever becomes.
To be fair I do think all gambling has the ability to cannibalize one another. If sports betting was legal and they setup the framework correctly, you could really make the cost of betting cheap and thus the average players ROI would be way better at it than DFS (not to mention you could have a DFS element on the site with like a rake free GPP or two...Similar to how the westgate is rake free) Since the revenue would come from the betting side of things. There is a lot you could do if the powers that be let you...
I mean I definitely think if you had an innovative business mind and a favorable regulatory environment that you could disrupt FD/DK in 3-5 years. TONS and TONS of variables go into that though...
Wow are you kidding me chop?!?
That is absolutely, positively, the other way around.
Everyone knows DFS prays that Sports betting is never legalized.
Why do you think DFS companies claim they don't offer gambling?? (Courts are catching on)
So they can portray themselves as the good guys, remain legal, while the other stays illegal.
That's like saying someone cant wait for the day of their
own funeral...
Actually is sportsbetting ever became 100% legal DFS could lose popularity and still gain revenue simply because the pie is all of a sudden bigger.
This would be assuming that the states that currently ban DFS would go along with the federal laws.
So even if lost a few customers to sports betting(which it certainly would) it would still gain over all due to regulation and the new pro gambling atmosphere that legal sports gambling would create.
I would bet my bottom dollar that every single person in charge at DK and FD would love the day when sports betting was made legal.
