2-3 on the day, but we actually won a little bit. Puts a small band aid on the bleeding. It's not much, but we won .6 units today. It's not what I was hoping for but still not bad for a 2-3 day and especially not bad when you just had 6 straight losing days.
Old System:
62-54 (+17.10 units)
New System:
ML Favs: 0-0
ML Dogs: 3-1 (+7.80)
RL Favs: 48-59 (+24.25)
Totals: 13-8 (+12.60)
Total: 64-69 (+44.65 units)
Grand Total: 126-122 (+61.75 units)
Tomorrow starts a new week so hopefully it'll change the luck as well.
Old System:
62-54 (+17.10 units)
New System:
ML Favs: 0-0
ML Dogs: 3-1 (+7.80)
RL Favs: 48-59 (+24.25)
Totals: 13-8 (+12.60)
Total: 64-69 (+44.65 units)
Grand Total: 126-122 (+61.75 units)
Tomorrow starts a new week so hopefully it'll change the luck as well.
Tell me about it. When its bad....its bad. The only other bad run I've had lasted 12 days. Other than that, and the current run, I don't usually ever have more than 2 losing days in a row.
But as I said in my daily recap post, although record wise it was a losing day, unit wise, we actually made a bit of profit. Maybe a sign of a turn around?
Personally I think the San Diego Padres aren't a good play today, maybe even a fade. Here is why:
Since the start of this thread I went back to check for games that applied to the following 3 criteria:
a) It's a pick according to Bronco's System.
b) The game is possible to be picked at ESPN's Streak for the Cash.
c) At Streak for the Cash 80% or over of the public is on our side.
Results:
Date / Pick / Price / Public on our side / Outcome outright / outcome after RL
5/11 Giants RL +135 94.2% W W
5/13 Boston RL +140 83.3% L L
5/15 Pirates RL +170 82.9% L L
5/15 Giants RL +125 81.7% L L
5/20 Royals RL +170 91.7% L L
5/24 Boston RL +105 93.1% W W
5/24 St. Louis RL +155 94.2% L L
5/25 LAA RL +145 95.2% L L
5/26 Toronto RL +140 94.9% L L
6/1 NY Mets RL +140 93.3% L L
6/3 St. Louis RL +160 85.5% L L
6/6 Houston RL +135 90.9% L L
In short, we went 2-10 for a loss of 22.8 units. Seeing as the total system went 64-69 with a profit of +44.65 units, I think we can all agree the difference is substantial. Suppose the trend is at other sports as well and we would immediately have corrected for it, we would've been 62-59 (+67.45 units).
Obviously, the profit would be higher if we instead faded these plays, however 12 games are certainly not close enough to say anything conclusive how this trend will continue. I think however it is clear enough this might be something since the odds of going 2-10 with normal toss-ups (aka 2 heads for 12 throws) is 1.6% -- small enough a chance for me to track it from now on.
The reason why this happens I think is because espn obviously wants everyone to keep their streak low (previously the first to... 23 straight correct picks got a million or something like that) and thus best strategy for them would be to pinpoint games that will suck many people to the wrong side. Since broncos current system for a large part plays favorites (on the runline), we can expect some overlapping games... And certainly espn seems to be correct rather often so far.
IMPORTANT: The 'San Diego RL +130' of tonight has currently 97.0% of the public on it, this amount might chance a little, but it will (barring miracles) not fall under the 80%. Since it falls within the aforementioned 3 criteria where we went 2-10, be VERY careful betting this game.
Since the start of this thread I went back to check for games that applied to the following 3 criteria:
a) It's a pick according to Bronco's System.
b) The game is possible to be picked at ESPN's Streak for the Cash.
c) At Streak for the Cash 80% or over of the public is on our side.
Results:
Date / Pick / Price / Public on our side / Outcome outright / outcome after RL
5/11 Giants RL +135 94.2% W W
5/13 Boston RL +140 83.3% L L
5/15 Pirates RL +170 82.9% L L
5/15 Giants RL +125 81.7% L L
5/20 Royals RL +170 91.7% L L
5/24 Boston RL +105 93.1% W W
5/24 St. Louis RL +155 94.2% L L
5/25 LAA RL +145 95.2% L L
5/26 Toronto RL +140 94.9% L L
6/1 NY Mets RL +140 93.3% L L
6/3 St. Louis RL +160 85.5% L L
6/6 Houston RL +135 90.9% L L
In short, we went 2-10 for a loss of 22.8 units. Seeing as the total system went 64-69 with a profit of +44.65 units, I think we can all agree the difference is substantial. Suppose the trend is at other sports as well and we would immediately have corrected for it, we would've been 62-59 (+67.45 units).
Obviously, the profit would be higher if we instead faded these plays, however 12 games are certainly not close enough to say anything conclusive how this trend will continue. I think however it is clear enough this might be something since the odds of going 2-10 with normal toss-ups (aka 2 heads for 12 throws) is 1.6% -- small enough a chance for me to track it from now on.
The reason why this happens I think is because espn obviously wants everyone to keep their streak low (previously the first to... 23 straight correct picks got a million or something like that) and thus best strategy for them would be to pinpoint games that will suck many people to the wrong side. Since broncos current system for a large part plays favorites (on the runline), we can expect some overlapping games... And certainly espn seems to be correct rather often so far.
IMPORTANT: The 'San Diego RL +130' of tonight has currently 97.0% of the public on it, this amount might chance a little, but it will (barring miracles) not fall under the 80%. Since it falls within the aforementioned 3 criteria where we went 2-10, be VERY careful betting this game.
when i seen that the cardnals were a play i said oh shit
because i said i wont bet on them till they win a couple in a row, they have been awefull lately but the way you must play a system is play them all,,,,,,i am not going to deviate from the system cuz it has worked as we can all see in the 60 plus units but sometimes they seem to even out and i just wish i was here to jump on this system from the beginning not during this bad stretch lol.....keep it up bronco i think you about to turn this shit around
because i said i wont bet on them till they win a couple in a row, they have been awefull lately but the way you must play a system is play them all,,,,,,i am not going to deviate from the system cuz it has worked as we can all see in the 60 plus units but sometimes they seem to even out and i just wish i was here to jump on this system from the beginning not during this bad stretch lol.....keep it up bronco i think you about to turn this shit around
Today begins a new adjusment for the system. It is just an added filter to eliminate certain plays. Maybe this small adjustment along with the start of new series' will change things around. If things don't turn around by the end of the new series', I will be taking a break. BOL!!
6/9 Plays:
Baltimore RL +150
Boston RL +150
ChiSox RL +125
Cleveland RL -105
Brewers RL +150
St. Louis Under 7
6/9 Plays:
Baltimore RL +150
Boston RL +150
ChiSox RL +125
Cleveland RL -105
Brewers RL +150
St. Louis Under 7
I noticed, still, 1 pick doesn't make or break an idea. In any case, it's just a hunch I have had for a while and checking the numbers it was confirmed -- maybe mere coincedense or chance, maybe not; a single winning game (or losing; the outcome matters little for it's a sole game) doesn't change my theory. I'll just keep tracking.
Let's hope your adjustments turn the losing around
i was wondering can someone direct me to a thread or watever where it is revealed basically how you are coming up with the games you pick, as i was reading where mea culpa said this stuff has to do something with the accu score simulations and espn .
i am curious as to do a little digging myself and see what this system is all about because if bronco is going to chill i would still like to play the games albeit at a much smaller amount
this thing is money as the 60 units attests to and i think its just a bad swing right now , and hope things get better ....<><>
i am curious as to do a little digging myself and see what this system is all about because if bronco is going to chill i would still like to play the games albeit at a much smaller amount
this thing is money as the 60 units attests to and i think its just a bad swing right now , and hope things get better ....<><>
