Agree with Vegas Vic, this is our first bad weekend and it won't be the last and maybe not even the worst. The system seems to work rather well and with some proper money management there is no need to worry at all.
Take the marlins yesterday for instance, the cubs get a grand slam and we still lose relatively close with 6-4; seems like there was some nice value there and the coin just has to fall to our side one time. No need to worry.
Take the marlins yesterday for instance, the cubs get a grand slam and we still lose relatively close with 6-4; seems like there was some nice value there and the coin just has to fall to our side one time. No need to worry.
Ahhhh yes, there it is. I was waiting for someone with some negativity to say something. Didn't see you in here when I had two separate 8-2 runs, but thank you for coming out for the bad run. Its much appreciated and of course, very constructive. I'm not the kind of guy that will get defensive. It is what it is and right now it is bad.
But I believe we can all learn from Vegas Vic's comments as they are very true. So long as nobody chases and adheres to the three unit per play rule (or maybe even less right now), your bankroll isn't in any danger and in fact, it is larger now than it was on April 1. If anyone would like to look back, I said this in several posts, that there will be a time when we have 3 or 4 losing days in a row. As I've said, if this week is bad, I will make further adjustments to it. I'm not stubborn and the parameters are not written in stone here. Anyway, I'll be back around 11am pacific with todays play. :toast:
Bronc- With anonymity on the net it is inevitable you will get the bashers coming out. Way to take the higher road. Can't say that I would always be able to do the same so I just post in the record tracker forum. BOL this week. I don't tail on every play but, I for one, will still be following the thread. Crush the books this week. :toast:
I appreciate the kind words from most of you, but let's call it what it is. A terrible run that's costing us money. I play each and every one of these plays and as I've said before, $300 is one unit for me so each play is at least $900 for me. Since I'm personally invested in these plays, believe me when I say I am doing and will do anything I can to start winning again, that you can count on. Now for today's plays.
5/4 Full Card:
ChiSox +170
Cubs -185
LAD -140
Houston +135
Houston Under 9.5
TB Rays RL -115
BOL!! :toast:
5/4 Full Card:
ChiSox +170
Cubs -185
LAD -140
Houston +135
Houston Under 9.5
TB Rays RL -115
BOL!! :toast:
GL today!Guess he missed the part about being up over 25 units in under one month.....just an idiot^^.....good system I am sure baseball is a LONG season keep up the good work bronco
Is it wrong in America to state an obvious fact. Are we still living by our grandmother's rules... "if you don't have anything nice to say, then don't say it?" C'mon, gimme a fucking break. I call a spade a spade. When I lose over fucking $11k in two days, I'm gonna say something. Especially if I missed the first week where alot of the money was made. So anybody who jumped on the same time as me is feeling the same damage to our bankroll. Patterson, you're prolly only playing $50/game, that's why you don't mind when you lose.
P.S. Bronco, I never bashed you! All I did was state a fact, did I not? The obvious truth is... the system went belly up for a couple days. How is that negative? I guess the truth can also be labeled as negativity then? I've been following since the second week and have been down since. So, I'm sure you can feel my pain. I'm not asking for sympathy, just the opportunity to speak my mind.
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You are absolutely right and I've acknowledged the horrible run as being just that. There is no nice way of putting it. And if you were simply referring to the past few days as being belly up, then you are absolutely correct and I appologize for calling it bashing. My bankroll has definately felt the pain and it sucks. I would never call it bashing when someone simply points out that the last few days have sucked. I thought you were referring to the whole system as having gone belly up, for which it is much too soon to say that.
And overall, I'd say the first three weeks or so were great, the last two weeks or so pretty average and stagnant and the past few days terrible. As I've already said, I'm giving the current system a week at most (if today is 0-6, this system will be scrapped and I will have to find something else to work with).
PLEASE READ: If anyone is still following these plays riding out the bad run, DO NOT CHASE!!!! Please please please do not chase. It's important to recognize we are having tough times right now. Stay consistent and you will be able to ride it out. If you chase, you could blow everything in one day. Of course I can't blame anyone for skipping the plays for a while and waiting until it turns around.
BE SMART!!
fade....just because something is truthful doesn't mean it isn't negative. You can tell an ugly person that they are ugly and it is true, but does that make it right or ok? Use some tact when you speak the truth and people won't bash you. YOU clearly brought it on yourself and deserve the criticism. The truth is that they were just being truthful. Works both ways my man.
On the topic of 11k....hate to see anyone lose that kind of cash, but if losing that kind of cash in 2 days makes you that frustrated then you clearly can't afford to lose that kind of cash. Again, brought that on yourself. Just speaking the truth. I truly do hope you win it back, but making comments like "belly up" without anything else is just begging for bashing.
AZ
On the topic of 11k....hate to see anyone lose that kind of cash, but if losing that kind of cash in 2 days makes you that frustrated then you clearly can't afford to lose that kind of cash. Again, brought that on yourself. Just speaking the truth. I truly do hope you win it back, but making comments like "belly up" without anything else is just begging for bashing.
AZ
Broncos is a good guy and his system has produced profit in a short term situation. Please do not hold him responsible for someone's mismanagement of their own bankroll. Betting more than 3% of your bankroll on any one game is reckless and will eventually lead to losing one's money even if you have a solid system and can produce 55-60% winners.
With that being said I believe Broncos does not understand Accuscore's data and is misinterpreting it and giving people plays that do not represent the greatest value according to Accuscore. As I understand it, Bronco is not doing his own handicapping and is taking all the plays from the Accuscore computer system, if I am wrong about this and this thread represents some kind of a blend of Accuscore and Broncos own handicapping skills that my post is worthless and I will stand corrected. Lets take today's plays as examples.
I am writing at 3 PM EST so I dont think the info has changed that much.
Accuscore says the White Sox have a 41.4% chance of winning and you can get +174. So the expected value of this bet is 174+100=274x.414=113.43, if you subtract the 100 you placed the bet, the expected value is 13.43, so for every 100 you wager you can expect to win $13.43 according to accuscore's simulations.
When calculating the NBA and MLB totals Broncos uses the 60% barometer, which would be 110+100=210x.600=126, subtracting the 110 you get 16.00 expected value. So the value for the White Sox bet falls way below the expected value criteria used for the NBA plays and MLB totals.
Furthermore, the Cubs play today would fall below the 16.0 expected value plateau as well. Players would get far more theoretical value (according to Accuscore's numbers) by betting the Tigers RL 154+100=254x.487 (Accuscore projects the Tigers to win by at least 2 runs 48.7% of the time).
254x.487=123.69-100= 23.69 expected value.
So, using basic math, according to Accuscore's numbers the Tigers Run Line has way more value than the Cubs or White Sox do today but Broncos has not listed them as a play. Other plays today that hold greater than 16.0 expected value are: Jays RL 33.56 EV, Cubs RL 19.68 EV, Dodgers RL 24.99 EV, (by the way Dodger ML only has 11.57 and shouldnt be a play either), Astros 19.7 EV, Cards RL 24.57, Astros/Nats Under 8.5 18.52 EV, Rays RL 22.25 EV.
The purpose of this post was just to explain basic math and expected value not to tarnish Broncos in any way. If he has a system that makes money using Accuscore good for him and everybody that follows him but using basic math and deductive powers it is not providing those who follow his plays with the greatest expected value according to the Accuscore projections.
With that being said I believe Broncos does not understand Accuscore's data and is misinterpreting it and giving people plays that do not represent the greatest value according to Accuscore. As I understand it, Bronco is not doing his own handicapping and is taking all the plays from the Accuscore computer system, if I am wrong about this and this thread represents some kind of a blend of Accuscore and Broncos own handicapping skills that my post is worthless and I will stand corrected. Lets take today's plays as examples.
I am writing at 3 PM EST so I dont think the info has changed that much.
Accuscore says the White Sox have a 41.4% chance of winning and you can get +174. So the expected value of this bet is 174+100=274x.414=113.43, if you subtract the 100 you placed the bet, the expected value is 13.43, so for every 100 you wager you can expect to win $13.43 according to accuscore's simulations.
When calculating the NBA and MLB totals Broncos uses the 60% barometer, which would be 110+100=210x.600=126, subtracting the 110 you get 16.00 expected value. So the value for the White Sox bet falls way below the expected value criteria used for the NBA plays and MLB totals.
Furthermore, the Cubs play today would fall below the 16.0 expected value plateau as well. Players would get far more theoretical value (according to Accuscore's numbers) by betting the Tigers RL 154+100=254x.487 (Accuscore projects the Tigers to win by at least 2 runs 48.7% of the time).
254x.487=123.69-100= 23.69 expected value.
So, using basic math, according to Accuscore's numbers the Tigers Run Line has way more value than the Cubs or White Sox do today but Broncos has not listed them as a play. Other plays today that hold greater than 16.0 expected value are: Jays RL 33.56 EV, Cubs RL 19.68 EV, Dodgers RL 24.99 EV, (by the way Dodger ML only has 11.57 and shouldnt be a play either), Astros 19.7 EV, Cards RL 24.57, Astros/Nats Under 8.5 18.52 EV, Rays RL 22.25 EV.
The purpose of this post was just to explain basic math and expected value not to tarnish Broncos in any way. If he has a system that makes money using Accuscore good for him and everybody that follows him but using basic math and deductive powers it is not providing those who follow his plays with the greatest expected value according to the Accuscore projections.
Parquet Posse:
I understand what you're doing, but I take the information from a different angle. A value angle.
I'll take ChiSox play for example.
ChiSox +174 at 41.1% Theoretically, you will win this play 4.1 times out of 10 which will give you a net profit of $126.14 (using $100 wager). $174*4.11=$715.14 - $100*5.89=589.
KC -182 will theorectically win 5.89 times out of 10 which will give you a net loss of $159.02 (again using $100 wager).
$100*5.89=$589 - -$182*4.11=$748.02
This is a net change of $285.16 and the long term value is on ChiSox for this play.
Take RL using same game. Right now it is at 44.8% of hitting at +110
RL will then hit 4.48 times out of 10.
+110*4.48=492.80 - $100*5.52=$552
Net loss of $59.20 over ten games.
So while you may interpret it your way, to say I am doing it wrong is just an incorrect statement. As you can see, by simple math, there is value in my plays and that's what i look for. The long term value is to play ChiSox in this situation.
I understand what you're doing, but I take the information from a different angle. A value angle.
I'll take ChiSox play for example.
ChiSox +174 at 41.1% Theoretically, you will win this play 4.1 times out of 10 which will give you a net profit of $126.14 (using $100 wager). $174*4.11=$715.14 - $100*5.89=589.
KC -182 will theorectically win 5.89 times out of 10 which will give you a net loss of $159.02 (again using $100 wager).
$100*5.89=$589 - -$182*4.11=$748.02
This is a net change of $285.16 and the long term value is on ChiSox for this play.
Take RL using same game. Right now it is at 44.8% of hitting at +110
RL will then hit 4.48 times out of 10.
+110*4.48=492.80 - $100*5.52=$552
Net loss of $59.20 over ten games.
So while you may interpret it your way, to say I am doing it wrong is just an incorrect statement. As you can see, by simple math, there is value in my plays and that's what i look for. The long term value is to play ChiSox in this situation.
