Brainiac's MMA and boxing PLAYS

TheBrainiac · Jan 25, 2009

Still paid off making a play on Sokoudjou even tho he lost ... cuz I wouldn't bet on Belfort either if I didn't place this one . Both were underdogs , one won so it's all good .Rogerio didn't deserve to be an underdog either so odds were great , Fedor is in his own league even tho AA looked good you can never be sure against Fedor .Posted play on Belfort some minutes before the fight started , just to make sure ...

AFFLICTION ll : 3-1 + 13.02 units

Boxing RTD : 15-4 + 94.4 units
MMA YTD : 56-25 + 78.37 units

The Brainiac said:
2 WEC bets

Sat 1/24

WEC 38 MMA

Jamie Varner vs Donald Cerrone

My pick is Jamie Varner to win

Odds : - 130 & - 150 & - 155

Where : 5dimes & pinnaclesports & bookmaker

7.45 units to win 5 units

Many people see value in betting on Cerrone but I will lean my head out of the window and say Jamie takes it with stronger wrestling , top control and crisper boxing keeping the distance .

Sat 1/24

WEC 38 MMA

Danillo Villefort vs Mike Campbell

My pick is Danillo Villefort to win

Odds : - 130

Where : bodog

3.25 units to win 2.5 units

Danillo is a black belt in both judo and BJJ with solid wrestling , not so great on his feet but hopefully he sticks to whats best for him and that is taking Campbell to the ground right away then it should be a very short work once it hits the mat . Campbell has 4 wins over scrubs but I haven't seen anything that makes me think he will last more than 30 seconds on the ground against a slick guy like Villefort .
Avoid the bomb , clinch with him , take him down and pound him out or armbar .

Those bets for WEC today .

TheBrainiac · Jan 25, 2009

TheBrainiac · Jan 25, 2009

sphincter · Jan 25, 2009

truthfully,fedor was getting schooled until arlovski got careless...that`s been arlovski`s achilles heel his whole career...i remember the fight with sylvia in which he had sylvia and gor careless on the ground...

make no mistake,arlovski is one of the finest athletes in mma....and he had fedor completely confused..but,the head has to be part of the equation....and that`s where he comes up short(he`s a little chinny to boot).....

he got cocky and tried a flying knee with his hands down....akin to a boxer throwing an uppercut from the outside....

a disaster waiting to happen...

talent unfulfilled...

TheBrainiac · Jan 25, 2009

This punch would KO a horse and AA is a beast but Fedor is just smarter and has more overall game for MMA . If Andrei didn't fight Fedor I would root for him against anybody .

dps831 · Jan 25, 2009

I'm with you on both WEC picks, good luck brain.

BUCSnotYUCKS · Jan 25, 2009

Yes he may have hit him cold flush, but I'm not going to go as far as saying it would knock anyone out. I just can't because of AA's famously known glass jaw.

Arlovski had Fedor confused, frustrated, and controlled. I wouldn't say he got careless as much as I'd say he got caught.

Arlovski has all the tools to defeat Fedor except 1, and that's a good chin.

I really don't see anyone besides Lesnar defeating Fedor, and we might not ever get to see that happen.

j0hnnyv · Jan 25, 2009

fedor would never lose to AA or lesnar.

man isnt human

TheBrainiac · Jan 26, 2009

<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr align="middle"><td class="Txt11Gray" width="126">Jamie Varner</td> <td class="Txt11Gray" width="126">Donald Cerrone</td> <td class="Txt11Gray" width="160">Technical Decision (Split)</td> <td class="Txt11Gray" width="71">5</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr align="middle"><td class="Txt11Gray" width="126">Danillo Villefort</td> <td class="Txt11Gray" width="126">Mike Campbell</td> <td class="Txt11Gray" width="160">TKO (Punches)</td> <td class="Txt11Gray" width="71">1</td> <td class="Txt11Gray" width="63">3:53</td></tr></tbody></table>

WEC 38 : 2-0 + 7.5 units
AFFLICTION ll : 3-1 + 13.02 units

Boxing RTD : 15-4 + 94.4 units
MMA YTD : 58-25 + 85.87 units

TheBrainiac · Jan 26, 2009

Sat 1/31

Ultimate Fighting Championships 94

Lyoto Machida vs Thiago Silva

My pick is Lyoto Machida to win

Odds : - 246

Where : pinnaclesports

12.3 units to win 5 units

Taking this early , I am not sure which way the line will move but I am happy with the one I have here . The way I see this fight Thiago Silva doesn't win it once out of 2.5 times . Preview sometimes later this week closer to the event .

franks · Jan 26, 2009

Brain; thanx for Cerrone/Varner. Made up for my beatdown on Margarito.

onemorebet · Jan 30, 2009

Locks,
Penn
Jon Jones
Jon Fitch
Nate Diaz
Jake O'Brien
Arroyo

How can anyone put there money on Bonnar? Does anyone know he was caught with steroids and has never been the same fighter since? No because you morons are so caught up in the Griffin match to see past how bad and slow he really is. MMA is different than the early days. MMA favors the wrestler with 5 minute rounds to push the action and in no way will Bonnar be able to catch a sub with his bum ass knee and weak jiu jitsu. Jon Jones is 6' 4'', so there is no reach advantage and will take down Bonnar just like Rashad did. Bonnar doesn't even have a contract he is only here because he is a name. He is being used just like Randy was. Why would the UFC pair up someone with Jon Jones' potential and ruin his record and rags to riches story for Stephan Bonnar?? This is business and thats the formula to let the next show sell. Jon Jones is so much more athletic and unpredictable, and he went the distance with a Brazilian and knew nothing about fighting. Don't think for a second Jones will come out as bad as he did the first time. Watch Affliction again and see the first bought when Green fought. He was the cat who listed his fighting style as "hood". To everyones surprise he put up a great fight and could have went to a decision if he didn't land 3 shots below the belt. My point is not that Green was good, but put up a fight because he was unpredictable and an athlete. Now switch to Jon Jones who is a national wrestling champ and more fine tuned than his first fight. How do you prepare for this guy?? The way I see it Bonnar has 3 five minute tries to get a knockout or submit this guy because Bonnar will get taken down again and agian just like Evans did. Royce Gracie would have lost to Dan Severn on points in 5 min rds on points. Instead he was able to wait 30 min into the fight for a sub. Think about it... Does anyone think that Jon Jones knows all he needs is some takedowns and defense? I do thats the only way he can lose and Bonnar, with his ring rust won't be able to finish. The guy needs another fight and will try to do too much. I was watching him train in his videos and he is so incredibly slow!! This is an easy steal for me just like the Ben Henderson fight on WEC 38.

TheBrainiac · Jan 30, 2009

So far I only have Machida over Thiago Silva , not sure if I am ready to lay - 175 on Bonnar .

onemorebet · Jan 30, 2009

Brain

What makes you so sure about Machida over thiago?

Since I saw Cramer lose to the heel hook I lost all respect for him. He has no real KO power and had terrible takedowns. I think Arroyo is the strongest lock along with Jon Fitch and O'brien. I'm looking for a stron parlay to complement those fights, and I am thinking Taveras would be a good fit but I do not know much about Manny. I like Machida but he has such bad value and is a could lose if it went to a decision because thiago will push the pace... Also Dana White loves thiago especially because he is more marketable and appealing to the fans...

Let me know what you think...

ALso I don't know much about Wilson, but I know Howard is just looking for a payday. I did watch Wilson fight finch and didn't like what I saw.

TheBrainiac · Jan 30, 2009

The way I see it if Machida doesnt counter Thiago early and knocks him out in the first it will be just matter of time when Thiago is going to gas in the 2nd round and then for sure Machida will either win on points like 29-28 taking 2nd and 3rd rounds unless he already wins the first round as well . He can also hurt Thiago standing if he is gassed and then take him down and do more damage from the guard . In my opinion Machida is way too patient to be knocked out by Thiago as he knows his style and how he should counter that . Maybe Machida would show some flaws in his game off his back but I think his takedown defense is too good to be taken down by Thiago . Rewatched Thiago's fights few days ago and I wasn't impressed at all ... he was sitting on Houston Alexander like 2 minutes before he was finally able to put him away with GnP and we all know HA has zero ground game . Against Antonia Mendes he got hurt with a highkick but managed to beat him anyway some seconds later , against Drawl he didn't impress either . Those guys are not on Machida's level and if he hurts Thiago it will be most likely all over .

onemorebet · Jan 30, 2009

I found a cool site to watch video of fights from most of the fighters in this event-mmavideolink.com- i also like fightopinion.com- do you know any other solid links?
also how about manny and taveras bout? how condident would you be in either? i'm looking for a solid parlay to cover any loss on other picks...

TheBrainiac · Jan 30, 2009

Typical 50/50 fight , I have no clue at all whats gonna happen in this one , watch how Manny got knocked out in his last fight in like 5 seconds ... not a guy I would put any serious amount of money on ...

onemorebet · Jan 30, 2009

Since 2005, and in the past 101 UFC events the favorites are 76 and 25 with an average fav of -276
I'm not looking to bet on more than 2 dogs here

HansGruber · Jan 30, 2009

I think Manny makes a point of going back to his bread & butter in this fight - clinch, judo throw, and ground & pound - after the loss to Emerson. He got away from his gameplan in that fight obviously, opting to trade which was a huge mistake. The positive aspect of that loss is that he's being offered at a discount and is virtually guaranteed of returning to his strength.

Gamburyan is a sick judo practitioner and was a superstar on the junior international scene before focusing on MMA. In terms of opponents, there's no comparison. Gamburyan beat Joe Lauzon and was about even with Nate Diaz before separating his shoulder in the TUF finale. He even hung tough with Sean Sherk many years ago, losing a decision. Tavares hasn't beaten anyone of note and got KO'd by Matt Wiman, their one common opponent. Gamburyan beat Wiman by dominating the ground game in the TUF quarters I believe.

TheBrainiac · Jan 30, 2009

Yep ... I already posted elsewhere that I like Manny in this fight as slight underdog , Tavares lost all his 3 UFC fights if you dont count his UFN fights against guys with 4-7 record etc .