Boxslayer's CFB Week 12 (45-28, +24.05 units, 62%)

[Boxslayer]

2* Virginia Tech Hokies +5 -110

I'm not thrilled about playing two road teams on Thursday Night. But if you were to have 2 teams that dont do well at home it is Akron and Miami.

UM has no homefield advantage whatsoever. Usually it's the heat, but its not hot in FL right now. Other than that, it will be a 75% full stadium, and a very intimidating and colorful Dolphin Stadium.

Va Tech has had UMs number lately, as they are 6-1ATS vs. Miami last 7 meetings and 5-1ATS last 6 meetings in Miami.

Hard not to like Va Tech on Thursday night anyway. They are one of the most successful teams in the history of Thursday Night CFB. They are 13-4 last 17 THursday Night games.

Bottom line Va Tech is the better team, although Miami is surging, they will have a hard time pulling away from a Va Tech team with an experienced QB, sound defense, and sound special teams.

Miami starts 2 freshman (Harris and Marve) Harris the true frosh and Marve the redshirt. Marve has fallen out of favor down in Miami and now the undersized and versatile Harris is at the helm. His strength is his speed and ability to make plays, but Va Tech has plenty of team speed on defense and Harris will be in for a rough night as this will be one of the best defenses he has ever faced in his life to date.

Va Tech strength on D is also stopping the run and that is what Miami tries to do offensively.

Va Tech much better in the turnover department as well.

Getting 5 points here is way too many, my line Va Tech -1.

Va Tech 24
Miami 23

 

[TheNoob]

2* Virginia Tech Hokies +5 -110

I'm not thrilled about playing two road teams on Thursday Night. But if you were to have 2 teams that dont do well at home it is Akron and Miami.

UM has no homefield advantage whatsoever. Usually it's the heat, but its not hot in FL right now. Other than that, it will be a 75% full stadium, and a very intimidating and colorful Dolphin Stadium.

Va Tech has had UMs number lately, as they are 6-1ATS vs. Miami last 7 meetings and 5-1ATS last 6 meetings in Miami.

Hard not to like Va Tech on Thursday night anyway. They are one of the most successful teams in the history of Thursday Night CFB. They are 13-4 last 17 THursday Night games.

Bottom line Va Tech is the better team, although Miami is surging, they will have a hard time pulling away from a Va Tech team with an experienced QB, sound defense, and sound special teams.

Miami starts 2 freshman (Harris and Marve) Harris the true frosh and Marve the redshirt. Marve has fallen out of favor down in Miami and now the undersized and versatile Harris is at the helm. His strength is his speed and ability to make plays, but Va Tech has plenty of team speed on defense and Harris will be in for a rough night as this will be one of the best defenses he has ever faced in his life to date.

Va Tech strength on D is also stopping the run and that is what Miami tries to do offensively.

Va Tech much better in the turnover department as well.

Getting 5 points here is way too many, my line Va Tech -1.

Va Tech 24
Miami 23

Box, Love the pick. I also wanted to point out Miami's best O lineman is out tonight with a high ankle sprain. VT is not a team to break in a new guy against. More pressure on Miami's QB's could mean an extra TO tonight.

 

[shugdawg13]

box u da man,for seeing rich roduppy:

 

[jerrytheknife]

Lol...this is some good stuff...thanks for the info box...jerry, you must have lost a ton of money on this game or else you wouldnt be on boxy's dick like this....

i would have lost if i hadnt seen that minnesota was the wrong side and laid the wood on michigan at the half....that is what i mean by what i posted...go back and look at some of the posts.....by the end of th 1st qtr anybody with half a brain was lookin for a way to get off minnesota.... lost 1 unit on 1st half,won 4 units on 2nd half...2nd half was a huge play for me...but,some of you fellows are missing my point..i'm talkin about AFTER THE GAME HAS BEEN PLAYED..most good cappers(gosooners,etc)review their plays and try and see where they they errored and how it can be helpful in the future..THAT IS MY POINT....this aint about right or wrong it's about keeping an open mind and learning to be a better capper monday than i was on saturday and sunday........hope this helps you gentlemen who might be confused about my post...always a work in progress.

 

[Justathought]

Hey Box,

Appreciate all that you do here. I know you have a great play for NFL..

Jets over Pats.....Pats over Jets.....need you expertise here my friend

 

[SKing24]

How to read this:

A point margin is the difference in average points per game between tiers.

1st tier is Top 10 teams in that stat category average X number of points per game. 2nd tier may average 3 points less per game. Bla bla.

The point is....the higher the point margin, the more points a team scores when they execute the stat shown. i.e. A team that is top 10 in converting 1st downs/game offensively (OFF) will score 3.33 points per game more and win 0.53 more games per year than a team that executes that stat line in the top 25. A top 10 team will score 6.66 points per game more than a team that executes that stat in the top 50. They will score 9.99 points per game more than a team that executes that stat in the top 75. And so on.

In regards to the scoreboard, a team that converts 1st downs and ranks in the top 10 in first down conversions, will score more points per game, than a team that is top 10 in yards per pass attempt (YPC or Yards per catch).

This isnt necessarily something you can do any math on, but rather, it is an interesting chart to show what wins football games when looking at stats as a general observation.

According to the stats from this season:

The team that can convert the most 3rd downs will have the best combination of winning games and scoring points. Converting 3rd downs is more important than rushing offense, rushing defense, turnover margin, etc.

Looking at this as a very general rule, the team that can convert the most 3rd downs, convert the most 1st downs, hopefully through passing, and can stop the run on defense, is going to win and cover A LOT of games.

Box, love the way you break down the games and would like to learn more about how you do things from a statistical standpoint as well as the intangibles...ie home field, motivation, coaching, etc.

From the above explanation, it sounds like you break down your tiers from 1-10, 11-25, 26-50, 51-75 etc. Looking at 3rd Down %, the difference from the 10th ranked team (KU) and the 11th ranked team (UL-LAF) is 0.4%. To me that's equal with the difference being less than half of 1%, but by your tiers you'd give KU a 2.76 pt advantage. If we look further into this we can see a huge discrepancy between the top team (Tulsa) with a difference of 8.7% over KU, but since they are both in the top 10 or 1st tier, they are considered equal. While the difference from 10 (KU) and 26 (Ohio St) is 4.8%, yet KU would gain a 5.52 pt margin in that category since Ohio St would fall into the 3rd tier.

In reality if we break down KU and Ohio St...you are looking at KU going 7/14 on 3rd downs and OSU going 6/13-6/14. Those are basically their avg's per game based on number of 3rd downs this year. KU is going to convert on avg 0.73 more 3rd downs than Ohio St, yet they still receive 5.52 more value points in that category. In contrast, Tulsa is going to convert 1.2 more 3rd downs than KU, yet the value is equal.

Could you explain how you get around this? Thanks in advance!!

 

[GFE]

I really enjoy your post box, and I wish you the best of luck.

I honestly do not understand why grown men insist on coming to your house and telling you how to cook your chili that they havent even been invited to taste.

I mean seriously, its not just this thread, its all of the strong cappers here. Stop in, peek, read, learn, contribute and leave. If you have a problem private message him and have the back and forth there. Not that I didnt thoroughly appreciate your lengthy post, it just annoys me that you had to be driven to that.

I am convinced that you men who follow cappers, make money from people who are doing all the math for you, then complain or argue in THEIR thread after a loss... you are either a current or future wife beater. Does it make you feel like a real man to have this cyberfight in front of everyone. Are your Vballs getting heavy when you do this?

There is no reason why you are yelling at someone, or arguing or being a smartass with them in THEIR house. This forum needs a "make my day" law, so when that happens, the owner of the house can blow your ass out of the forum.

Woman to man, take your catty, girl negative comments to the private messaging side. It really makes you look bad.:finger:

As for you Box, thanks again, I have always been a FB fan, but you have helped me enjoy CFB with a better understanding of the game... and win some money too...

BOL:toast:

 

[GE4511]

apparently dr bob has akron tonight. maybe we can get a better line with buff now

 

[billsfan]

I'm on both as well Box....and the books do undervalue the Bulls, but I won't complain...I think we cash both tonight GL

 

[killerwales]

i would have lost if i hadnt seen that minnesota was the wrong side and laid the wood on michigan at the half....that is what i mean by what i posted...go back and look at some of the posts.....by the end of th 1st qtr anybody with half a brain was lookin for a way to get off minnesota.... lost 1 unit on 1st half,won 4 units on 2nd half...2nd half was a huge play for me...but,some of you fellows are missing my point..i'm talkin about AFTER THE GAME HAS BEEN PLAYED..most good cappers(gosooners,etc)review their plays and try and see where they they errored and how it can be helpful in the future..THAT IS MY POINT....this aint about right or wrong it's about keeping an open mind and learning to be a better capper monday than i was on saturday and sunday........hope this helps you gentlemen who might be confused about my post...always a work in progress.

Dude, seriously? You have all of 51 post here and you come into this man's thread and try to give shit? Start posting plays, show a record anywhere near box's and then maybe, just maybe, you can speak. Until then, just say good luck, or get the fuck out of his thread.:finger:

 

[killerwales]

Dude, seriously? You have all of 51 post here and you come into this man's thread and try to give shit? Start posting plays, show a record anywhere near box's and then maybe, just maybe, you can speak. Until then, just say good luck, or get the fuck out of his thread.:finger:

sorry guys dont mean to keep this shit going, but that kinda shit pisses me off. obviously i dont post much, more just lurk, but you gotta draw a line in the sand somewhere. anyways, good luck tonite box, on the buffalo pick with ya, but cant bet on vt cuz thats my team, dads an alum so thats a nono for me. but i would if i couldope:

 

[fugazi]

Glad I'm on the same side as you Box, got a 2 teamer with Buffalo +3 and Vatech +4.5
Let's cash this in!

 

[WormyPix]

Box, I absolutely feel your pain. Just recently in the nfl, I picked DEN over NE, and told some coworkers of mine about it. Then, tuesday comes along, and they all say, what a crappy pick. But I said, like you, it was the right side. That situation was a little different, as DEN changed the outcome of the gm by fumbling twice in the red zone on their first 2 possessions. If they had scored TD's both times, DEN probably would've routed NE instead.

Here, you're trying to say your capping style (which incorporates many things) had MIN as the fav. Despite the outcome, MIN had great value, and was the right play for you.

I know you're probably frustrated from all this, but I'm glad it happened, because your post was good reading. Keep up the great work, I've always liked your posts.

 

[core42]

Thanks for another couple of winners tonight

 

[tdibs]

Nice call Box! I almost went with the crowd with Akron and Mia until I saw your post...thanks for the winners!

 

[smalltime]

Thank you

Thanks you for breaking some bread with us Box layer. Keep up the great work my friend. Do not let them bashers or haters get to you. Like I said they are probably a bunch of back yard bookies getting their a$$ handed to them.Karma is returning to them ...remain humble:smoker2::smoker2::smoker2uff Puff Gimme

 

[fugazi]

hahaha you da man Box! We breaking bread tonight son!

 

[DeltaU46]

Thanks for the winners!

Here's to a profitable weekend!

:toast:

 

[walnut5225]

I really enjoy your post box, and I wish you the best of luck.

I honestly do not understand why grown men insist on coming to your house and telling you how to cook your chili that they havent even been invited to taste.

I mean seriously, its not just this thread, its all of the strong cappers here. Stop in, peek, read, learn, contribute and leave. If you have a problem private message him and have the back and forth there. Not that I didnt thoroughly appreciate your lengthy post, it just annoys me that you had to be driven to that.

I am convinced that you men who follow cappers, make money from people who are doing all the math for you, then complain or argue in THEIR thread after a loss... you are either a current or future wife beater. Does it make you feel like a real man to have this cyberfight in front of everyone. Are your Vballs getting heavy when you do this?

There is no reason why you are yelling at someone, or arguing or being a smartass with them in THEIR house. This forum needs a "make my day" law, so when that happens, the owner of the house can blow your ass out of the forum.

Woman to man, take your catty, girl negative comments to the private messaging side. It really makes you look bad.:finger:

As for you Box, thanks again, I have always been a FB fan, but you have helped me enjoy CFB with a better understanding of the game... and win some money too...

BOL:toast:

Bravo GFE! :aktion033

Totally agree with everything you said. As one chick to another, this can be a tough place to hang out. Glad to know there are a
few of us out there.

 

[thesundevil]

"a disinterested team vs a very interested team.minneota has been whooped by michigan for a long time and this is a big game for minny to get some payback.even if michigan was a good team tis year,they would not really be interested in this minny game"..what teams were you talkin about when you said minnesota and michigan?.[/quote).the facts are on your side.