Boxslayer's CFB Championship Week (59-41, +21.50 units, 59%)

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Great call tonight on Buffalo, BOX, I'm thinking of doubling up on Mizzou, loved the write up.
 

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sooner defense is suspect.... missouri + is a play!

bama wins this entire bcs thing, being big dogs helps! A must watch game that doesnt require a wager, but might have to make one :103631605

Nice UB Winner box! :toast:
 

mws

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Mizzou, meanwhile, played in a meaningless game last week. They lost, and are unintentionally playing possum. You can bet for sure that Oklahoma knows Mizzou lost last week and may let their guard down.

Shades of the MAC matchup here. I like this angle.
 

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Thanks for the great call on Buffalo!

As a Mizzou fan, I usually lay off the Tigers' games, but this is one of my favorite spots for Mizzou (betting wise) in years...

Good luck today!
 

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Tailed you on Buffalo Box...well done. Thoughts on Uconn/pitt? I think the wrong team is favored to be honest....
 

UF. Champion U.
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UCONN/Pitt - My line is UCONN -4, and with public on Pitt, and UCONN motivated for this game - I definitely lean to UCONN and may make a small play on them.
 

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I just dont trust the Uconn offense...they've failed to score more than 13 points in 4 of the last 6 games...the cinci win was nice but the only other time they did was against the hapless cuse....Pitt wins outright in my opinion and the points are a gift...gonna go with pitt +3 small...good luck box...tailed you on Mizz though...

Any other leans today?
 

UF. Champion U.
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1* UCONN Huskies -2.5 -110

I love betting where the ranked team is getting points and the unranked team is laying points. It's always good to be on the opposite side of the guy who opens the morning paper and says"Ranked Pitt #23, getting points vs an unranked team?"

It's another obvious underdog scenario and with you only having to lay-2.5 with the Huskies, I think the books have left this game open for the UCONN cover.

My line is UCONN -4, so it confirms UCONN being favored, rightfully so. My line is based on neutral site meetings though, and you have to add an additional 3 points for homefield here, plus UCONN averages 25 PPG but when they get at home they average 32, an additional TD when they play home games. So UCONN can win this game by double digits.

But I love fading Dave Wannstedt, especially in big games, especially on the road.

Connecticut is very fresh for this game, they havent played in 2 weeks or so, and Pitt has played every week.

You have a fresh, motivated, home team in UCONN, playing a ranked Pitt team on the road, coached by Dave Wannstedt, only laying a FG.


UCONN 31
Pitt 21
 

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"Missouri, meanwhile, will probably not be changing much about their bowl status if they win."

Boxslayer, wouldn't Mizzou play in the Fiesta Bowl if they win, since they would be Big 12 Champions?

I have been trying to confirm this, but no one seems to be talking about it. Most of what I've read seems to suggest that Mizzou is playing for pride, but obviously a Fiesta Bowl berth would be huge for them (especially since they were snubbed last year).

According to the BCS' website:

Automatic Qualification


1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings shall play in the National Championship Game.

2. The champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and Southeastern conferences will have automatic berths in one of the participating bowls after the 2008 through 2013 regular seasons.

Further down...

2. Unless they qualify to play in the NCG, the champions of selected conferences are contractually committed to host selected games:


Atlantic Coast Conference-Orange Bowl
Big Ten Conference-Rose Bowl
Big 12 Conference-Fiesta Bowl
Pac-10 Conference-Rose Bowl
Southeastern Conference-Sugar Bowl
 

UF. Champion U.
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"Missouri, meanwhile, will probably not be changing much about their bowl status if they win."

Boxslayer, wouldn't Mizzou play in the Fiesta Bowl if they win, since they would be Big 12 Champions?

I have been trying to confirm this, but no one seems to be talking about it. Most of what I've read seems to suggest that Mizzou is playing for pride, but obviously a Fiesta Bowl berth would be huge for them (especially since they were snubbed last year).

According to the BCS' website:

Automatic Qualification


1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings shall play in the National Championship Game.

2. The champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and Southeastern conferences will have automatic berths in one of the participating bowls after the 2008 through 2013 regular seasons.

Further down...

2. Unless they qualify to play in the NCG, the champions of selected conferences are contractually committed to host selected games:


Atlantic Coast Conference-Orange Bowl
Big Ten Conference-Rose Bowl
Big 12 Conference-Fiesta Bowl
Pac-10 Conference-Rose Bowl
Southeastern Conference-Sugar Bowl

Hmm, I was lead to believe something differently, that because of their record that wouldn't be the case. I completely forgot about automatic bids. You may be right.
 

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2* USC Trojans -32 -110

I hate laying this many points, but USC hasn't been favored by this much over UCLA in quite awhile, if ever. But I think it is warranted. USC is a for sure top 5 team in the country, there is no doubt about it, and while I have doubts about their offense, it is their defense that allows them to cover numbers like this.

I know UCLA has played USC tough over the years, but Pete Carroll has gone on a whining spree about the BCS and I think his team will back him up like we have seen many teams back up their coaches after going out on a limb over the BCS starting with Stoops this year, and Urban Meyer in 2006.

USC should give up 13 or less points in this game, and I think they are ready to come out and fire on all cylinders and win this game convincingly. They are the team that is on the outside of the BC-Mess looking in, and their is still a small light at the end of the tunnel for them, but only if they take care of business in convincing fashion.

Pete Caroll has gone on a limb for his team, and I think the Trojans come out and make a statement today.,

USC 48
UCLA 10
 

UF. Champion U.
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With Percy Harvin not playing, to me, this is a Bama or nothing play now.

Percy Harvin is extremely underrated and may be the best player in college football. He is unstoppable, and whenever the Gators are in a rut, Percy is the one who makes big plays to bail them out. If Bama can shut down the speedy midgets in UFs backfield (freshmen tandem Rainey and Demps), Florida does not have a conventional passing game or the WRs to make a big difference. Percy is their best WR, best playmaker, and defenses key on him.

I would be very tentative to lay double digits on Florida without Harvin.
 

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3* Buffalo Bulls +16 (*win*)
2* Missouri Tigers +17 -110
2* USC Trojans -32 -110
1* UCONN Huskies -2.5 -110

Lean to Bama without Harvin +10.

Adding one more play.

GL
 

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actually from another post of GMONEY:

icon1.gif
Percy Harvin will play against Bama and will be close to 100%
<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Heard this let's just say from an inside source from within the training room. Percy's injury is no where nearly as bad as originally thought. There are 2 kinds of ankle sprains. The more severe High ankle sprain and the one that Percy suffered. His is more lateral and not as severe. If he's not 100% for the game he'll be 90%. Go Gators!!!!!!!!!
 

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SEC Championship - Florida vs. Alabama

The Line: Line is currently at -10. We may have a case here for the obvious underdog, #1 undefeated, Alabama getting double digits with Nick Saban? Then you have the obvious favorite: Florida steamrolling through everyone now only laying 10 points to a Bama team that everyone believes to be completely overrated and the benefactor of of tight wins.

Similar to a good poker player, I am trying to always figure out my table perception; that is, how the table views me as a player (aggressive, weak, slow player, etc). What I mean by that, is I always like to figure out which side I am on in the book's eyes and how my bet would be viewed - sharp or square/public. And this is one game because of the line where I can't figure it out. That tells me this is a legit line, no fishy spreads, line is set just right to get even action. Looking at a few sites I use, the action appears to be pretty even at 50/50. The books aren't cheering for any team in particular, IMO, just hoping the game stays off the #10.

Motivation: BAMA. They are coming into this game eerily similiar to many national champions in the past few years: tight games, vs. a high scoring offense that has been blowing people out, getting NO RESPECT. Florida/Oklahoma appears to be a foregone conclusion.

General Analysis: I could sit here and write a novel of why each team will win or lose this game. If Bama can run the ball effectively, chew up clock, keep Florida's offense on the sidelines, and wear this defense down, Bama has a good chance to win this game.

Percy Harvin's injury is also a major concern. He is one of the only players in the country who is literally unstoppable. He has never been shut down, and in many tight Auburn slugfests vs. Florida, Percy became a one man show on offense. He is one of the only upperclassmen playmakers for the Gators, he was the MVP of this SEC Title Game in 2006, and he makes everyone on the field better. If he plays, and plays near 100%, I would lay a lot of money on FL.

I've liked Bama all week, I've been thinking how their line is similar to Ole Miss' and the Gator D-Line is a potential weakness of this team. I've been thinking about how Bama has been disrespected, and Nick Saban is not a chopped liver coach. I've been thinking about a lot of things as to why Bama can come out and wear Florida down.

But the bottom line in this game, is one team has PROVEN MONEY players, and the other one doesn't.

It starts with Tim Tebow. You can say whatever you want about Tebow. Love him, hate him, whatever. Bottom line, Tebow is and will go down as one of the greatest QBs in the history of college football. This kid isnt just some good QB, and he will be one of the better QBs in Florida history, and Florida will get a guy just like him next recruiting class. He is a special, special, special, special player that you may not see again in this lifetime. I have been a sports fan and really been in involed with all athletics for a long time, and this kid is one of a kind.

I say that, because I believe great people are destined for great things. He is probably not going to do much in the NFL, and this moment, this game, and the potential next game will be his legacy. You don't bet against Joe Montana or Tom Brady when the chips are in the center of the table. Great players, do great things. You fade the overrated David Klingler's and Ryan Leafs. You bet on Tim Tebows.

In my opinion, the way Florida is playing, the way Tebow is playing, and the overall dominant TALENT and SPEED that has been assembled on this team in a very USC-like nature, is something that will take a monumental effort to bring down now that it is money time.

This Bama team is a very good team, but they are not even close to being the type of overall team that will take down this machine.

Urban Meyer is THE best big game coach in America. Hands down. Dating back to his days at Utah, to his SEC and National Title as an outmacthed Florida coach, to being an astounding 12-1 against his traditional rivals at Florida, to being back in the big game now with his recruiting classes and his 4* and 5* players. What has been assembled here has matured, while Bama is still maturing.

In the end, Florida has too many X-Factors in this game: SPECIAL TEAMS, Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer, etc.

I know it sounds very "Rah-Rah". I understand how it looks. But I have said this same angle numerous times when betting on other eerily similar spots in other sports. This game is basically a bet of whether you think the Gators and Tim Tebow and Urban Meyer are for real or not. If you think they are for real, you have to be able to see ahead of what the consequences will be of failure or victory and what it will do to Meyer's and Tebow's legacy to move on to a National Title. And I think they are for real.

Florida will win this game. The health of Percy Harvin will play a part in determining this spread.

Recommendations:

NO HARVIN, NO PLAY.
Florida 31
Bama 21


HARVIN IN: 3* Florida Gators -10

Florida 38
Bama 21

Great call on the final score, Box. Great work, and congrats to your Gators. :party:
 

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