SEC Championship - Florida vs. Alabama
The Line: Line is currently at -10. We may have a case here for the obvious underdog, #1 undefeated, Alabama getting double digits with Nick Saban? Then you have the obvious favorite: Florida steamrolling through everyone now only laying 10 points to a Bama team that everyone believes to be completely overrated and the benefactor of of tight wins.
Similar to a good poker player, I am trying to always figure out my table perception; that is, how the table views me as a player (aggressive, weak, slow player, etc). What I mean by that, is I always like to figure out which side I am on in the book's eyes and how my bet would be viewed - sharp or square/public. And this is one game because of the line where I can't figure it out. That tells me this is a legit line, no fishy spreads, line is set just right to get even action. Looking at a few sites I use, the action appears to be pretty even at 50/50. The books aren't cheering for any team in particular, IMO, just hoping the game stays off the #10.
Motivation: BAMA. They are coming into this game eerily similiar to many national champions in the past few years: tight games, vs. a high scoring offense that has been blowing people out, getting NO RESPECT. Florida/Oklahoma appears to be a foregone conclusion.
General Analysis: I could sit here and write a novel of why each team will win or lose this game. If Bama can run the ball effectively, chew up clock, keep Florida's offense on the sidelines, and wear this defense down, Bama has a good chance to win this game.
Percy Harvin's injury is also a major concern. He is one of the only players in the country who is literally unstoppable. He has never been shut down, and in many tight Auburn slugfests vs. Florida, Percy became a one man show on offense. He is one of the only upperclassmen playmakers for the Gators, he was the MVP of this SEC Title Game in 2006, and he makes everyone on the field better. If he plays, and plays near 100%, I would lay a lot of money on FL.
I've liked Bama all week, I've been thinking how their line is similar to Ole Miss' and the Gator D-Line is a potential weakness of this team. I've been thinking about how Bama has been disrespected, and Nick Saban is not a chopped liver coach. I've been thinking about a lot of things as to why Bama can come out and wear Florida down.
But the bottom line in this game, is one team has PROVEN MONEY players, and the other one doesn't.
It starts with Tim Tebow. You can say whatever you want about Tebow. Love him, hate him, whatever. Bottom line, Tebow is and will go down as one of the greatest QBs in the history of college football. This kid isnt just some good QB, and he will be one of the better QBs in Florida history, and Florida will get a guy just like him next recruiting class. He is a special, special, special, special player that you may not see again in this lifetime. I have been a sports fan and really been in involed with all athletics for a long time, and this kid is one of a kind.
I say that, because I believe great people are destined for great things. He is probably not going to do much in the NFL, and this moment, this game, and the potential next game will be his legacy. You don't bet against Joe Montana or Tom Brady when the chips are in the center of the table. Great players, do great things. You fade the overrated David Klingler's and Ryan Leafs. You bet on Tim Tebows.
In my opinion, the way Florida is playing, the way Tebow is playing, and the overall dominant TALENT and SPEED that has been assembled on this team in a very USC-like nature, is something that will take a monumental effort to bring down now that it is money time.
This Bama team is a very good team, but they are not even close to being the type of overall team that will take down this machine.
Urban Meyer is THE best big game coach in America. Hands down. Dating back to his days at Utah, to his SEC and National Title as an outmacthed Florida coach, to being an astounding 12-1 against his traditional rivals at Florida, to being back in the big game now with his recruiting classes and his 4* and 5* players. What has been assembled here has matured, while Bama is still maturing.
In the end, Florida has too many X-Factors in this game: SPECIAL TEAMS, Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer, etc.
I know it sounds very "Rah-Rah". I understand how it looks. But I have said this same angle numerous times when betting on other eerily similar spots in other sports. This game is basically a bet of whether you think the Gators and Tim Tebow and Urban Meyer are for real or not. If you think they are for real, you have to be able to see ahead of what the consequences will be of failure or victory and what it will do to Meyer's and Tebow's legacy to move on to a National Title. And I think they are for real.
Florida will win this game. The health of Percy Harvin will play a part in determining this spread.
Recommendations:
NO HARVIN, NO PLAY.
Florida 31
Bama 21
HARVIN IN: 3* Florida Gators -10
Florida 38
Bama 21
