Boxslayer's 2009 NFL Playoffs w/ Writeups....

[Boxslayer]

2* Carolina Panthers 1st Half -6.5 -115
1* Carolina Panthers -10 -110

3* Teaser 7 points -115
1st Leg: Carolina Panthers -3
2nd Leg: San Diego Chargers +13

For a good part of this season, I fetl the Giants and Titans were two of the best teams in the league. But the one that really came on lately and made a lot of noise was the Carolina Panthers. This is a very balanced team, with a great head coach, experienced QB, two headed monster at RB lead by DeAngelo Williams, the best O-Line in football, and two playmakers at WR with Smitty and the Muslim. Their defense is also outstandng. This is a very physical team that just beats people up up front and runs down their throat.

So Carolina, may very well be the most complete team in the league. At home they were undefeated, and with the week of rest, they are rested with home field.

The AZ Cardinals caught a horrible matchup here. The Cards look to be the obviouys underdog here. Last week, nobody gave the Cards a chance. This week, a lot more people are on them. They come limping into this game with Boldin likely out, and definitely not at full speed if he plays. This is a finesse team with no ground game, a suspect defense, and a fossil at QB.

To make matters worse, this may be the worst road team in the NFL, especially when they go out east where their record is abysmal.

So you have a soft team that is horrible on the road and is banged up, vs. a great physical team playing at hoem with rest where they dominate.

Arizona is 2-7 ATS last 9 games as an underdog, while Carolina is 9-2 ATS as a favorite.

Last week, Zona caught the perfect matchup and I was on them. At home, with a rookie QB heading out to the west coast. But besides that matchup, Zona's last 5 wins came against Seattle San Fran and St. Louis. They have only beat one playoff team this year (Miami) way back in week 2. Again at home. Not on the road.

Their tight matchup vs. Carolina came off the heels of Arizonas bye week. So Zona was very well rested and ready to play that game and they still lost.

This time, the tables are turned. It is Carolina off the bye week.

I could go on and on about this play, but because the spread is 9.5/10, I am trying to get creative with this play to net a profit.

First, I am playing Carolina 1st half. I expect Carolina to come out flying around, and I expect losing Boldin will be an adjustment for AZ. AZ is also #1 in the NFL in 3rd quarter scoring. So I am taking Carolina -6.5, and laying less than a TD 1st half.

2nd, I am making a small play on the game spread.

3rd, I am teasing the Panthers down to -3 where I feel very comfortable with them covering and giving additional points to San Diego - a team I feel is the hottest team in the NFL right now, playing vs. a banged up Steeler team that faded down the stretch and has a concussed Ben Roethlisberger.

Carolina 30
Arizona 13

 

[PatientbutDeadly]

Hey Box, what are your thoughts on Carolina -3 (even)
first quarter?

I see them scoring at least a TD in the first quarter, I think their defense will be feeding off an amped home crowd at night and keep Arizona out of the endzone early ... thoughts

 

[Boxslayer]

I like Carolina 1st quarter, 1st half, team total, everything I like but the -9.5/-10 I am just kind of okay on. I think they cover it but Im never comfortable laying double digits in the playoffs.

I am still FURIOUS and FRUSTRATED over that Titans game. Tennessee did whatever they wanted on offense, and then they lose Johnson for the 2nd half who was shredding them, missed FG, fumble fumble in their territory, the whole thing was very frustrating to watch because Tennessee was easily the right side in that game, but when you let the other team ahng around hang around hang around hang around, you let that door open.

Despite all of their mistakes in Raven territory, the Johnson injury was critical.

Moving on now and looking for some big hits tonight.

I added 1* Carolina team total over 29.

 

[Smacksmiter]

Tough loss on the Titans game... I am with you tonight on the Panthers! Good luck to us!:toast:

 

[PatientbutDeadly]

as much as the titans pissed away that game ... its just the ravens doing what the ravens do though ... when ray lewis leads his boys in the playoffs, they are a dangerous dangerous team ... I played the titans after reading so many reputable cappers posts ... but i still didnt feel comfortable when i did it

ravens will take care of the steelers next week and honestly could win it all

thanks for all ur posts

 

[billbeater]

tough day, hit the book in the face sunday!

 

[jblonghorn]

Let's come back strong later today w/ some nice wins. I'll be interested to see who you have. GL Box.

 

[roach23]

ope:

 

[YankeesRule]

I am sick the carolina game didn't go over with 34 freakin points at half wtf carolina show some freakin heart

 

[Cheddarforme]

Who we like at 1300 hrs? Philly gets it done? ya. i think so.

 

[Boxslayer]

as much as the titans pissed away that game ... its just the ravens doing what the ravens do though ... when ray lewis leads his boys in the playoffs, they are a dangerous dangerous team ... I played the titans after reading so many reputable cappers posts ... but i still didnt feel comfortable when i did it

ravens will take care of the steelers next week and honestly could win it all

thanks for all ur posts

sorry man but that's a load of crap.

i am all for ball hawking turnovers, or a defensive back making a great play to get a hand in there and jar it loose after a catch, or a safety like ed reed coming over and making a great play on the ball, or a sack from behind on a QB and a fumble like what happened to delhomme last night, or confusing looks on defense forcing turnovers, but driving the ball all day on the ravens from whistle to whistle and fumbling inside the 15 yard line a couple of times isnt ray lewis and his boys doing what they do. they were getting manhandled, collins was moving it at will, and chris johnson was shredding them up. the delay of game penalty put a nice little cherry on top.

now the zona game was outstanding defense by arizona and i'll tip my cap all day when i am on the wrong side. they had jake delhomme so confused and so out of rhythm, the guy looked like a rookie.

i honestly almost unloaded on the panther moneyline, because i literally thought there was no way arizona could beat a team like carolina. arizona needs to be revaluated at this point, because it looks like a team with a serious chip on their shoulder at this point.

 

[CaptFlippy]

sorry man but that's a load of crap.

i am all for ball hawking turnovers, or a defensive back making a great play to get a hand in there and jar it loose after a catch, or a safety like ed reed coming over and making a great play on the ball, or a sack from behind on a QB and a fumble like what happened to delhomme last night, or confusing looks on defense forcing turnovers, but driving the ball all day on the ravens from whistle to whistle and fumbling inside the 15 yard line a couple of times isnt ray lewis and his boys doing what they do. they were getting manhandled, collins was moving it at will, and chris johnson was shredding them up. the delay of game penalty put a nice little cherry on top.

now the zona game was outstanding defense by arizona and i'll tip my cap all day when i am on the wrong side. they had jake delhomme so confused and so out of rhythm, the guy looked like a rookie.

i honestly almost unloaded on the panther moneyline, because i literally thought there was no way arizona could beat a team like carolina. arizona needs to be revaluated at this point, because it looks like a team with a serious chip on their shoulder at this point.

The day in a nutshell! I couldn't say it any better!

 

[dave11486]

Boxslayer,

You've talked about using excel spreedsheets for making unbiased lines. What site do you use to get the numbers to make these spreadsheets?

 

[Boxslayer]

4* 7 point Teaser -120
1st Leg: Philadelphia Eagles +11
2nd Leg: Over 32

2* Eagles/Giants over 39 -110

A lot of people want to point to last meeting's 20-14 affair, and think about the storyline of teacher vs. pupil (Jim Johnson vs. Spags) No Plaxico is another major storyline and everyone thinks defense here.

But I look at the fact that Brandon Jacobs makes this Giants offense go. When he is in the lineup and at full health, the Giants are an outstanding football team. In the 20-14 game, there was a limited Brandon Jacobs, who only had 10 carries and didnt play the week before or week after. Jacobs has now proclaimed himself as healthy as he has been since week 3, and that means redzone touchdowns for the Giants. Jacobs makes this offense go, not Plax.

For the Eagles, Donovan McNabb has had his obvious resurgence, and the Eagles WRs are underrated as he can spread the ball out to 4 or 5 different guys. Westbrook is an absolute stud and you can't stop him, you just have to hope you can slow him. Eagles are very dynamic with Westbrook, Jackson, and a McNabb who has gotten much better over the years as a pocket QB, but always has that dimension of being able to scramble for 1 st down in a big situation, or buy time with his legs against a Giants blitz.

Two good QBs here, McNabb and Manning, who have both gotten better with age. Both of these teams know each other very well, so you will see both teams make good offensive adjustments to whatever the other defense shows.

Giants have lost too many players over the past 2 years. This was a team built on speed rush from the DE end position with Strahan, Umenyoira, and Tuck. Now just Tuck remains and he is banged up. This is not anywhere close to being the same team that gave NE defensive fits last year and sacked Tom Brady. That team was deep at pass rush. They used to be deeper at LB, but lost Torbor in the offseason. Their big play WR Plax is obviously gone. Sam Madison is out. The Giants defense has undergone an extreme makeover, and all that is left is the scheme with a few playmakers like Pierce, Tuck and Kiwanuka.

Same for the Eagles. This team used to be Dawkins, Douglas, Kearse, Vincent, etc. Now it's just a couple guys like Dawkins and co. But the scheme is in tact.

My point here is the big experienced playmakers are gone, and all that is left is the scheme. Both teams know the others scheme well. So its a matter of offensive execution in this game, and with Manning and McNabb at the helm, expect execution to be good in this playoff game and points to be scored.

Eagles are very hot right now, and I love them with 11 points, should be a tight game. In the end I do expect a Ginats victory. This team went 4-2 in the NFC East and Eagles went 2-4. Giants have won 3 of 4 straight up.

Giants 24
Eagles 20

 

[Boxslayer]

Boxslayer,

You've talked about using excel spreedsheets for making unbiased lines. What site do you use to get the numbers to make these spreadsheets?

You can use any site that excel allows you to click on the data table as a table and import it. Statfox works for this. ESPN works.

 

[fugazi]

Love the teaser, I'm on the same teaser myself

 

[Boxslayer]

5* Pittsburgh Steelers Team Total over 21.5 -115

Pittsburgh essentially moved the ball at will in these same conditions vs. the Chargers last time and the Charger D will find that Pitt has a lot more balance on offense than the Colts do. Parker went over 100 and Ben went for 300 in their 11-10 meeting last time, but Pitt stalled in the red zone in part to missing their big TE ***** Miller last time.

Also a believer that defense creates offense and Pitt harrassed Rivers last time to 0 TDs and 2 INTs, and in these coniditions we could see something similar. Sproles is a gamebreaker, but he is also a bit undersized to face a defense like this. He was well suited against the undersized Colt D, but running room may be a little more difficult in this game. Sproles, unlike LT, is an inconsistent runner with a high variance (thanks buffet) in run length - meaning Sproles is usually going to get shut down or he is going to break one. That means the ball will be out of the Chargers hands quickly in this game, and their defense will be on the field for a long time, and in the Steelers offense hands for just as long.

Not THRILLED tat Ben had a concussion to close the season, but Tomlin seems to think he is perfectly fine.

Big homefield advantage for the Steelers in this game, these are the conditions that they win in.

 

[LesterDiamond007]

What it do box?

 

[Boxslayer]

NFL Playoffs: 5-6, +0.55 units

Outside of the Carolina game where I had 3 different bets and about 7 units at risk, I have done very well in the playoffs. Looking to cash in big money today:


6* Philadelphia Eagles ML -175

Forget home and away, forget everything. This play is very simple:

The Cardinals are a passing offense vs. the most creative and blitz happy team in the NFL. Today is a poor matchup for the Cardinals for two reasons:

#1 - Kurt Warner turns from a potential pro bowl QB to one of the most gun shy, rattled QBs to ever play the game when he gets pressure - and the Eagles are one of the few teams in the NFL that are guaranteed to get pressure.
#2 - This is the game where the Cards one dimensional offense without a running game will kill them. You need to be able to run the football to counter the blitz.

The Cards WRs are very good, and if the Eagles blitz it will leave one on one coverage, but I love Brian Dawkins back there to make things happen on balls that are just thrown up for grabs. He is a playmaker back there.

As good as the Cards defense has done, they beat a rookie QB on the road, and a Panther team that for some strange reason abandoned their running game immediately and became a passing team. But the Eagles can make plays in a variety of ways, and Andy Reid will not abandon his plan.

As pedestrian as McNabb has been on the road this year, he is the most experienced QB in the NFL in the NFC Championship game. He's been here plenty of times before, and Eagles should be ready to roll today.

Philly 31
Zona 17

 

[FearTheRaven]

gl Box, really liking the Eagles today.