2008 Playoffs: 3-1, +5.6 units, 75%3-1 last week. Moving on....
5* Tennessee Titans -3 EV
Back again with "out of sight, out of mind." Titans with a huge win in very convincing fashion over the Steelers to secure the #1 seed, rested their starters in a blowout loss to the Colts the following week, then took the week off for the bye, and nobody has heard about the Titans in 3 weeks. Everyone else has been getting the hype and that is why everyone loves the Ravens here and how "hot" they are. Even besides that, there seems to be this idea that the Titans are pretenders amongst the public because they don't have a Peyton Manning, they don't get the big media coverage, they don't have the sexy high profile QB, or big name stars, etc. But this TEAM plays very well together. They don't have any Ray Lewis' or Ed Reeds', their story isn't as interesting as the comeback Chargers with Rivers, LT, Sproles and Gates. I mean, who is the most high profile player on their team? Albert Haynesworth? Chris Johnson? A defensive tackle and a rookie running back who splits carries? I'm not betting on this team the public says. I can't name any of their players! Everyone can't seem to find that same confidence betting on the Titans, and they can't figure out why. "I don't know why but I just don't believe in the Titans." It's that lack of media coverage, those small market Titans. This perception is Vegas' best friend. Giants and Titans were easily the two best teams in the NFL this year when at full strength. Now a rookie QB and rookie coach is going to come into the Titans house and beat them around? I dont think so.
Remember, betting lines are also made based on public perception. That is why Vegas knew they could get away with making this the tightest game on the board, and the public would still take the dog. This gives us a very reasonable spread to cover here with the Titans, the best spread of any favorite this weekend, and you probably won't find as many advantages of any favorite this weekend.
This Titans team didn't crush through the regular season, staying as the last undefeated team by accident. Things don't magically happen like that in the NFL, and here we are. Titans, the AFC's #1 seed, did it in a pretty tough division and did it playing those sexy Colts with their high profile QB in the same division. Still to this date, the most underrated team in the NFL is the Tennessee Titans.
The NFL is a MAN's game. And it is a game of physicality, and nobody is more PHYSICAL than the Tennessee Titans. Just ask the Steelers. Or you can ask the Colts. Or you can ask a physical team like the Jaguars who got swept by the Titans. Or you can ask a playoff team like the Vikings who rely on physical play. Or you can even ask these same Ravens who lost the Titans at home way back in week 5.
Still don't believe me that the Titans have the advantage in this game? Let's break this down very simply to show you the basics and breakdown the 5 key areas of the game - coaching, QB, running game, defense and intangibles:
Coaching - Advantage Titans. Harbaugh has done a wonderful job, but he again, is still just a rookie coach playing in his 2nd career playoff game, vs. Jeff Fisher - highly regarded as one of the NFL's top coaches. Fisher has loads of playoff experiene, and he should be able to coach circles around Harbaugh today when the opportunities present themselves.
QB - Advantage Titans. Say what you want about Kerry Collins, but he is the more experienced QB in this game. Collins has played in a Super Bowl before, he has played in NY under the limelight, he now has a home game in small market Tennessee. Joe Flacco is still a rookie QB on the road. Nothing changed just because the Ravens won last week. Rookie QBs on the road still have a horrible record, and I'm sure that record would get even worse when you have a rookie QB playing back to back road games if we had the data to show it - but rookie QBs lose so often on the road, there is no data for it. The Ravens won despite Flacco in Miami, not because of him. 9 of 23, 135 yards, no TDs, no INTs. Very pedestrian numbers, and now he will face a tougher environment, a bigger challenge and a tougher defense. Look the Ravens win over Miami was nice, but the more I watched that game it was obvious Miami was not a playoff caliber team and they were not ready to take that next step. It was a mismatch.
Running Game - Advantage Titans. You need a very strong running game to win on the road in the playoffs. LeRon McClain is not an explsove back, he cant make people miss, and he is a 3 yard per carry kind of back. McGahee can go down on any play, and I still firmly believe watching him week in and week out he has lost a couple steps from what he used to be. Chris Johnson and LenDale White not only form one of the top duos on the NFL, but they have the big play ability of Johnson and the redzone ability of White.
Defense - Advantage Titans. YES. Titans. Not even. Stats says Titans here, but perhaps the most important thing many will miss when analyzing this game is the Ravens defensive dropoff when they get on the road. Ravens routinely give up single digits at home, and NEVER gave up more than 13 points at home, but on the road they gave up more than 13 points in 7 of 8 road games. Ravens give up 20 points per game on the road, up almost a full TD from what they give up at home, while the Titans give up about 15 PPG, #1 in the NFL. Getting Haynesworth and Van Der Bosch back in this game is huge, and these Titans are well rested and ready to play physical today.
Intangibles - Advantage Titans. Home field advantage, experience, rookie QB on the road, Jeff Fisher, the week off to heal, a healthy and fresh team, vs. a Ravens team they have already faced and beaten in their house earlier this year. Public on the Ravens heavy (dont just look at spread percentages, look at the amount of people on Ravens moneyline).
Finally, let's look at what the Ravens and Titans did this year which will give us a feel for how they will perform in this type of game. Perhaps the most telling game of the season for me was when the Titans played Pittsburgh. Week 16, the battle for the #1 seed and homefield avdnatage. Huge game. Big atnosphere. In Tennessee. Both teams came out ready to play, and the Titans came out with a blowout win over the most hyped team in the AFC. Physically dominated the "most physical team in the NFL", willie parker 18 carries 29 yards. That same Pittsburgh team that was dominated by the Titans without Haynesworth and Van Der Bosch, swept the Ravens this year, beating them both games. All of this talk about the Ravens being as good as their Super Bowl defense is a complete disrespect to that defense. Ray Lewis is no longer in his prime, he is on the downside of it. Otherwise, the Ravens dont lose physical matchups like they did all year. Giants beat them, Steelers beat them twice, Colts blew them out, and these Titans beat them. Basically, anytime the Ravens played a good physical opponent they lost. They beat teams like the Bengals twice, the Browns twice, Texans, Oakland, Washington, etc. The Ravens only BEAT 3 playoff teams this year, two of those wins were vs. Miami who the Ravens are just more physically talented than. The Titans, excluding the last BS game where both teams rested starters, went 4-0 vs. playoff teams this year - beating Indy, Pitt, Minnesota and these same Ravens.
Titans were one of the top home teams in the NFL this year, just 1 home loss, while 3 of the Ravens 5 losses came on the road. Finally, the Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings vs. the Titans. Titans have won 3 of the last 4 meetings straight up.
Take the underrated home team, laying a small number, with a week off to prepare, with a superior coach, more experienced QB, better running game and defense, vs. an overhyped road team with significant drop off in road performance and poor recent success vs. this home team.
Tennessee 20
Baltimore 13
hno:
