BOWL Season

[ofred]

Last week: Large 1-2 Small 2-2

Cumulative: Large 73-42 Small 53-51

Hitting the early line. Large:

Army -4 (-119) I really don't expect this line to stay at 4.5 for long. The Army-Navy games are usually low scoring, and the total here is about 40. Might have a teaser with the total and the line. Army's defense is the difference here. Holding Tulane to 7 until a garbage time TD. Held UNT's high powered offense to 3. UTSA to 324 yards. The Army defense tackles well, generates turnovers, and leads the nation in red zone defense. They had numerous shared opponents. The Tulane game sticks out- Navy got completely stuffed 35-0 with only 113 yards of offense. I think that's why Tulane was favored last weekend...if they can handle Navy, they can handle Army(they couldn't). Tulane's defense was able to penetrate the Navy OL and limit the longer runs, while vs. Army, the Army OL was in charge for many of the plays. In their Notre Dame and Air Force games, the results were similar. I don't expect a blowout, but Army wins this by 4-11 points are thereabouts.

 

[ofred]

The spread just went to 6 at some books.

 

[sidthekid]

6.5 here

 

[JerryK]

7 offshore

 

[bluefish33]

Last week: Large 1-2 Small 2-2

Cumulative: Large 73-42 Small 53-51

Hitting the early line. Large:

Army -4 (-119) I really don't expect this line to stay at 4.5 for long. The Army-Navy games are usually low scoring, and the total here is about 40. Might have a teaser with the total and the line. Army's defense is the difference here. Holding Tulane to 7 until a garbage time TD. Held UNT's high powered offense to 3. UTSA to 324 yards. The Army defense tackles well, generates turnovers, and leads the nation in red zone defense. They had numerous shared opponents. The Tulane game sticks out- Navy got completely stuffed 35-0 with only 113 yards of offense. I think that's why Tulane was favored last weekend...if they can handle Navy, they can handle Army(they couldn't). Tulane's defense was able to penetrate the Navy OL and limit the longer runs, while vs. Army, the Army OL was in charge for many of the plays. In their Notre Dame and Air Force games, the results were similar. I don't expect a blowout, but Army wins this by 4-11 points are thereabouts.

Thanks Fred, let’s roll! Looking forward to your bowl picks!

 

[ofred]

Thanks Fred, let’s roll! Looking forward to your bowl picks!

Getting harder with all the opt outs and transfers. Some players put themselves in the portal, and then play the bowl game; sometimes not.

 

[sidthekid]

Getting harder with all the opt outs and transfers. Some players put themselves in the portal, and then play the bowl game; sometimes not.

Yessir makes it hard to bet any of these games early

 

[ofred]

Large:

Tennessee +7.5(-116) The Vols have a decent chance of winning this game. Ohio State will get the home field advantage, which is why I guess the line is so large. Only about 3,500 tickets will go to Tennessee fans. Redshirt freshman Nico Iamaleava has played an SEC schedule, and has had his ups and downs, but he isn't expected to be the savior for their offense. he has only 5 ints. and 0 fumbles. The Vols have plenty of playmakers that he can get the ball to. Plus I think Tennessee has the edge defensively. Ohio State is off their Michigan loss, but also off a dominant win of Indiana. They had close games with Oregon and PSU. Tennessee's offensive pace can be tough to get used to, their OL is solid, and I expect Heupel will have some surprises that aren't on tape. Ohio State, on the other hand, just seems to have a more predictable offense. The run game is not as dynamic as expected. Man, the pressure on Ryan Day.

 

[azbob]

Notice very few have posted lines for the actual bowl games? Books got burned by the opt outs last year. Duke QB just announced he is not playing. Probably won't see lines until about a week before the game whereas they used to post the whole bowl season soon after the pairings are announced.

 

[ofred]

Lines have been posted. I might, in some cases, wait until the day before or the day of the game to bet and then post. We'll see.

 

[ofred]

Large:

UNLV +3.5 Hope I don't regret this one, as in key UNLV players entering the portal and not playing in the bowl. So far, they only have 2 backups in the portal and both said they will play in the California Bowl. UNLV has a ton of seniors, most who will graduate this school year. With Odom leaving for Purdue, it just feels like they'll pull together one more time after their disappointment in Boise. They did it earlier when Matt Sluka left the program in September- and the team rallied with Hajj-Malik Williams...who turned out to be a much better QB anyways. Also, Cal really played poorly down the stretch, and the offense is one dimensional. The OL is banged up, they gave up 46 sacks, and the run game was weak. Their QB had quite a few yards passing because they often got behind in games. Cal has the better D, but in bowl games, IMO, offense wins out. Besides, Cal is a good academic school and right now are taking their final exams. Between that, recruiting, and finding an OC, maybe prepping for the bowl game has lots of distractions.

 

[ofred]

Cal QB and top WR entering portal. The line is now close to even.

 

[paperchasin]

Large:

UNLV +3.5 Hope I don't regret this one, as in key UNLV players entering the portal and not playing in the bowl. So far, they only have 2 backups in the portal and both said they will play in the California Bowl. UNLV has a ton of seniors, most who will graduate this school year. With Odom leaving for Purdue, it just feels like they'll pull together one more time after their disappointment in Boise. They did it earlier when Matt Sluka left the program in September- and the team rallied with Hajj-Malik Williams...who turned out to be a much better QB anyways. Also, Cal really played poorly down the stretch, and the offense is one dimensional. The OL is banged up, they gave up 46 sacks, and the run game was weak. Their QB had quite a few yards passing because they often got behind in games. Cal has the better D, but in bowl games, IMO, offense wins out. Besides, Cal is a good academic school and right now are taking their final exams. Between that, recruiting, and finding an OC, maybe prepping for the bowl game has lots of distractions.

UNLV down to +1

 

[ofred]

Small:

Mercer/ ND State- under 54 Mercer is all defense, not much offense. At least vs. ND State, I think it'll be really difficult for them to score. Mercer leads FCS football in rushing YPC, and is one of the leaders on passing defensive efficiency. And that includes a game with Alabama. To meit looks like a 31-7 or 34-7 kind of score. ND State will happy to grind out a run-first offense and count on their D to stymie a Mercer offense that has counted on their run game- one that has had success only vs. weak teams.

 

[ofred]

The other FCS game I like, small:

UC Davis +5 Glad it's in a dome as UC Davis won't have to deal with weather. Coach Plough of UCD has the edge here in play calling and innovation. He has the offensive players to follow through on these plans. SD has had a great season, but their defense seems to falter when playing the better teams. The stats could be built somewhat on 4-5 patsies on their schedule. The MVFC is a strong conference on the top side, but the bottom half are pretty bad. You can say the same about the Big Sky Conf, but UCD's only loss, besides the 1st game (a respectable loss to CAL), was to Montana State- the FCS favorite to win it all. They out-yarded Montana St. by about 80 yards and limited their offense as well as anyone has.

 

[ofred]

Army played too much as expected, while Navy got creative. On to next week's bowl games...

 

[sidthekid]

Army played too much as expected, while Navy got creative. On to next week's bowl games...

Army's game plan was horrible

 

[ofred]

Small:
Memphis -4 I don't think it's that meanngful that Neal Brown was fired before the ball game. Supposedly, West Virginia has very few opt outs, but I suspect some of their best players might opt out late, or play a limited amount. WV has the makeup of a lousy bowl team- poor defense, sometimes really poor, and a weak run game. Memphis gets a chance to beat a power 4 team, and in these early bowl games, that often is what happens. The Memphis coach, Ryan Silverfield, is 3-0 in bowl games and so I imagine he knows how to prep his team and gets them ready. Memphis only lost twice this season, and were in both games. Huge win vs. Tulane. Also, this line started at 2.5, and crossed the 3 is a little bit significant.

 

[ofred]

If late spread movement means anything, then Memphis and UNLV are looking good. We'll see.

 

[Cheddar]

Green cards came out last Wednesday for these game. I got Memphis -3 and UNLV +4, GL