Small:
Sam Houston St. +4.5 It seems like the portal players for SH are all there in New Orleans for their bowl game. Maybe with the Longo hire, the team will play better, and many guys will stay on their team for next season. Speculation, but it's not a big play for me. Georgia Southern might be 8-4, but statistically they are average or below in their conference offensively and defensively. Then There's Clay Helton's terrible bowl record. Georgia Southern does have some decent receivers, so why are they 7th in their conference in passing efficiency. Sam Houston has a solid D, and a dual threat QB who is only average. Gonna ride with the team with the new HC hire, their first bowl game in history, and the points.
Sam Houston St. +4.5 It seems like the portal players for SH are all there in New Orleans for their bowl game. Maybe with the Longo hire, the team will play better, and many guys will stay on their team for next season. Speculation, but it's not a big play for me. Georgia Southern might be 8-4, but statistically they are average or below in their conference offensively and defensively. Then There's Clay Helton's terrible bowl record. Georgia Southern does have some decent receivers, so why are they 7th in their conference in passing efficiency. Sam Houston has a solid D, and a dual threat QB who is only average. Gonna ride with the team with the new HC hire, their first bowl game in history, and the points.
Large:
Ohio -4.5 Got a feeling about this one. Jacksonville State will definitely miss Rich Rod's coaching and especially his play-calling. They also have some key opt outs on defense, and maybe their top WR. You've got to look beyond JS's last win, a blowout of WKU in their conference championship. Bowl season is a new season altogether, and I think JS is a bit deflated with the portal guys and coaching change. Ohio hired their very popular and competent OC as their HC, and of course. he'll coach the bowl game. Ohio shocked everyone with how well they played on both sides of the ball. Their QB Parker Navarro is not known as a great passer, but a stellar runner. Yet he is capable enough as a passer, and makes good decisions on the fly. Only been sacked twice in his last 6 games. Ohio has won their last 6 games easily, and that is not an easy feat even in the MAC.
Ohio -4.5 Got a feeling about this one. Jacksonville State will definitely miss Rich Rod's coaching and especially his play-calling. They also have some key opt outs on defense, and maybe their top WR. You've got to look beyond JS's last win, a blowout of WKU in their conference championship. Bowl season is a new season altogether, and I think JS is a bit deflated with the portal guys and coaching change. Ohio hired their very popular and competent OC as their HC, and of course. he'll coach the bowl game. Ohio shocked everyone with how well they played on both sides of the ball. Their QB Parker Navarro is not known as a great passer, but a stellar runner. Yet he is capable enough as a passer, and makes good decisions on the fly. Only been sacked twice in his last 6 games. Ohio has won their last 6 games easily, and that is not an easy feat even in the MAC.
Weather will be cold, but not snowy or that windy. With all the warming technology that teams have now, I think the fans will be the ones to suffer more from the cold. Notre Dame has the home field advantage as they have had for all but 3 games of their regular schedule.
Cignetti is a coach that adapts and makes adjustments, better than most coaches. He'll work with Rourke to avoid the sacks that plagued him in the OSU and Michigan games. Part of this play is that Notre Dame IMO is still a bit untested due to their schedule. USC ran for 8 YPC and 557 yards, Louisville out-yarded them by 115, and NIU beat them. ND also has had a habit of blowing big games that they should win...probably because they are often untested with their schedule. This year they played too many weak defenses. To their credit, they usually beat the crap out of these teams. Their offensive play-calling can be predictable, although Riley Leonard's impromptu runs add a level of unpredictability. I think this Indiana team can't quite match ND's talent, but Cignetti and his coaches will even the playing field and keep it close or get the outright upset.
Leans, but might up the play later to a small one:
South Dakota +8.5 Montana State physically manhandles teams and their QB seems to run the ball more than half their plays. I doubt they can do that here. Mont. St. QB Tommy Mellot is still an average passer, and I think their offense could have some 3rd down situations where they don't convert. If I'm the Coyotes, I'd make Mellot pass more often. South Dakota has been right there with ND St. and SD St, winning one and losing one by 3. They also held Wisconsin to 27 points and limited their run game pretty well.
SD State/ ND State- over 48.5 Seems crazy taking the over since these two only scored 22 earlier this season. But they are led by two accomplished senior QBs, have plenty of playmakers and are playing in the Fargo Dome. Playoff games in the FCS seem to have more scoring than regular season games. Neither team will dominate, and both OCs would be crazy to play it too conservatively.
South Dakota +8.5 Montana State physically manhandles teams and their QB seems to run the ball more than half their plays. I doubt they can do that here. Mont. St. QB Tommy Mellot is still an average passer, and I think their offense could have some 3rd down situations where they don't convert. If I'm the Coyotes, I'd make Mellot pass more often. South Dakota has been right there with ND St. and SD St, winning one and losing one by 3. They also held Wisconsin to 27 points and limited their run game pretty well.
SD State/ ND State- over 48.5 Seems crazy taking the over since these two only scored 22 earlier this season. But they are led by two accomplished senior QBs, have plenty of playmakers and are playing in the Fargo Dome. Playoff games in the FCS seem to have more scoring than regular season games. Neither team will dominate, and both OCs would be crazy to play it too conservatively.
Small:
Clemson +12.5 I keep hearing how great the Texas defense is, and I agree it is pretty damn good. The Texas offense can move the ball, but finishing with a TD or a score has been more of a problem. Ewers has been dealing with injuries, and has a lot of pressure on him. Is he always feeling that he'll be replaced by Arch Manning if he doesn't perform up to a certain standard? His lack of mobility has caused him to get sacked or hurry throws. Clemson wasn't expected to get to the playoffs after their loss to South Carolina. I'm not saying they win here, but Klubnik's a difference maker, and if anything can keep Clemson in this game, it's a QB like him. Clemson has a mediocre run game, but has the receivers to spread the field. Texas hasn't done all that well when playing vs. a quality QB.
Clemson +12.5 I keep hearing how great the Texas defense is, and I agree it is pretty damn good. The Texas offense can move the ball, but finishing with a TD or a score has been more of a problem. Ewers has been dealing with injuries, and has a lot of pressure on him. Is he always feeling that he'll be replaced by Arch Manning if he doesn't perform up to a certain standard? His lack of mobility has caused him to get sacked or hurry throws. Clemson wasn't expected to get to the playoffs after their loss to South Carolina. I'm not saying they win here, but Klubnik's a difference maker, and if anything can keep Clemson in this game, it's a QB like him. Clemson has a mediocre run game, but has the receivers to spread the field. Texas hasn't done all that well when playing vs. a quality QB.
Brutal beat on the Ohio game. Didn't see it, but following the score, it looked good for the cover. Classic backdoor cover.
Large:
Penn State -8.5 It feels like the books are really trying to get SMU money. This line has gone to 9 at some places. SMU had a great season, nearly comes back vs. Clemson, and playing a PSU team that has often lost in big games. I imagine the public is backing the underdog here. The weather should favor PSU. And can they produce offensively as they did vs. Oregon? I do think the PSU defense is the best that SMU will have faced this season, and that Jennings will struggle passing in the cold and wind. Having to pass too often if they get behind could also be tough for SMU. Drew Allar is returning next season even though he would probably get drafted in the 2nd round. I also was impressed about the PSU OL in the Oregon game.
Large:
Penn State -8.5 It feels like the books are really trying to get SMU money. This line has gone to 9 at some places. SMU had a great season, nearly comes back vs. Clemson, and playing a PSU team that has often lost in big games. I imagine the public is backing the underdog here. The weather should favor PSU. And can they produce offensively as they did vs. Oregon? I do think the PSU defense is the best that SMU will have faced this season, and that Jennings will struggle passing in the cold and wind. Having to pass too often if they get behind could also be tough for SMU. Drew Allar is returning next season even though he would probably get drafted in the 2nd round. I also was impressed about the PSU OL in the Oregon game.
