Upgrading North Texas +17.5 and San Jose State +3 to official plays.
(0-3) NTX @ (2-2) RICE -17.5
Play: North Texas +17.5
I just didn't expect Rice to have over 70% of bets on them all week long. Home teams ranked 25-55 places better, laying 10-21 pts are rarely getting that kind of public support. If getting anything over 60% of public support they are 1-10-1 ATS year-to-date. Some notable non covers from that group are: Pittsburgh losing at home as 14 pts fave over BG, Wyoming beating Ohio by 1 as 14 pts favorite, Minnesota barely edging NIU by 4 on the last minute TD as 10 pts favorite, and so on.
The total of 68.5 with majority of UNDER bets also goes in NTX favor. Their only few ATS wins since the start of the last season came with high totals and not many people on the OVER.
Rice is in a flat spot here. Ater playing three straight road games as underdogs, they are a huge home favorite, only to hit the road again next week with a revenge game against the best team in the conference (Tulsa) where they'll be a sizeable dog again. They are 0-7 SU and ATS in last 7 as favorite after a dog game and 1-5 SU and ATS in last 6 as favorite before a dog game.
North Texas has been destroyed on the scoreboard by KAST, Tulsa and LSU but rushing for 4.5 ypc against opponnents allowing 4.0 ypc, and allowing 8.3 ypp against opponents averaging 9.5 ypp is a big accomplisment for this North Texas team.
Home teams with line>-22.5 and <7.5 after playing 3 straight road games and after losing at least two straight (last one by 12-52 pts) are 9-53 ATS in last 62 as long as their opponent didnt' win by 20+ last week.
(2-2) SJS @ (1-2) HAW -3
Play: San Jose State +3
I don't know how, but my ratings show that Hawaii are ranked 26 places better than SJST. I don't believe in that right now and I expect this to change later this season. Anyways, Hawaii as a small home favorite are in the same group of teams as UNLV and Auburn that is 6-15 and 3-8 ATS.
Hawaii are a good home dog historically, and a team that rarely loses at home when big favorite. However, they are laying only 3 points against a team that they have beaten 7 straight times. The total is set at 48 and that's another red flag. Hawaii are 0-7 ATS in last 7 when the total is 72.5 or lower and 4-3 ATS when the total is 73 or higher. Not a single total in Hawaii games has been set as low as this one in this decade. The public is reacting immediately with 73% of bets on the over which is huge for a total in the 40's.
Last year SJS had 14 pts lead against Hawaii twice in a game they lost in OT. They led 28-14 in the 3rd and 35-21 in the 4th. What's even more amazing is that they scored 35, lost in OT with only 344 yards vs over 600 for Hawaii. This season SJS is much better, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and Hawaii is not even close to their team from last season. SJS allowed only one TD pass in 4 games ytd, picked up 4 interceptions with the defensive passing completion at 52%. No TD passes allowed in last three games including the trips to Nebraska and Stanford. They lost to Stanford because these they were able to run on them, and that's something Hawaii is not known for.
SJS QB Kyle Reed completed 43 of his 51 passes in last two games and he should have a good day against this Warriors defense. They've also been very solid running and stoping the run against Nebraska and SDS.
(0-3) NTX @ (2-2) RICE -17.5
Play: North Texas +17.5
I just didn't expect Rice to have over 70% of bets on them all week long. Home teams ranked 25-55 places better, laying 10-21 pts are rarely getting that kind of public support. If getting anything over 60% of public support they are 1-10-1 ATS year-to-date. Some notable non covers from that group are: Pittsburgh losing at home as 14 pts fave over BG, Wyoming beating Ohio by 1 as 14 pts favorite, Minnesota barely edging NIU by 4 on the last minute TD as 10 pts favorite, and so on.
The total of 68.5 with majority of UNDER bets also goes in NTX favor. Their only few ATS wins since the start of the last season came with high totals and not many people on the OVER.
Rice is in a flat spot here. Ater playing three straight road games as underdogs, they are a huge home favorite, only to hit the road again next week with a revenge game against the best team in the conference (Tulsa) where they'll be a sizeable dog again. They are 0-7 SU and ATS in last 7 as favorite after a dog game and 1-5 SU and ATS in last 6 as favorite before a dog game.
North Texas has been destroyed on the scoreboard by KAST, Tulsa and LSU but rushing for 4.5 ypc against opponnents allowing 4.0 ypc, and allowing 8.3 ypp against opponents averaging 9.5 ypp is a big accomplisment for this North Texas team.
Home teams with line>-22.5 and <7.5 after playing 3 straight road games and after losing at least two straight (last one by 12-52 pts) are 9-53 ATS in last 62 as long as their opponent didnt' win by 20+ last week.
(2-2) SJS @ (1-2) HAW -3
Play: San Jose State +3
I don't know how, but my ratings show that Hawaii are ranked 26 places better than SJST. I don't believe in that right now and I expect this to change later this season. Anyways, Hawaii as a small home favorite are in the same group of teams as UNLV and Auburn that is 6-15 and 3-8 ATS.
Hawaii are a good home dog historically, and a team that rarely loses at home when big favorite. However, they are laying only 3 points against a team that they have beaten 7 straight times. The total is set at 48 and that's another red flag. Hawaii are 0-7 ATS in last 7 when the total is 72.5 or lower and 4-3 ATS when the total is 73 or higher. Not a single total in Hawaii games has been set as low as this one in this decade. The public is reacting immediately with 73% of bets on the over which is huge for a total in the 40's.
Last year SJS had 14 pts lead against Hawaii twice in a game they lost in OT. They led 28-14 in the 3rd and 35-21 in the 4th. What's even more amazing is that they scored 35, lost in OT with only 344 yards vs over 600 for Hawaii. This season SJS is much better, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and Hawaii is not even close to their team from last season. SJS allowed only one TD pass in 4 games ytd, picked up 4 interceptions with the defensive passing completion at 52%. No TD passes allowed in last three games including the trips to Nebraska and Stanford. They lost to Stanford because these they were able to run on them, and that's something Hawaii is not known for.
SJS QB Kyle Reed completed 43 of his 51 passes in last two games and he should have a good day against this Warriors defense. They've also been very solid running and stoping the run against Nebraska and SDS.
early plays and leans 12-5-1 overall....
5 plays and as many leans pending...
made a few mistakes but this will be corrected next week...stay tuned
and remember guys this is only the first week of my usual approach...
i will start it in the nfl this week...the plays will be posted late tonight
5 plays and as many leans pending...
made a few mistakes but this will be corrected next week...stay tuned
and remember guys this is only the first week of my usual approach...
i will start it in the nfl this week...the plays will be posted late tonight
