October 1st
Astros to win the AL Pennant (+375), 1*
Astros to win the World Series (+800), 1*
I lean the Mets in their series with Milwaukee, but the Brewers had strong success against them in the regular season. I was looking at the American League and the Astros are the team I think have the fewest questions. I don’t think anyone in the AL Central is going to make the World Series. And I’m kind of down on the Orioles. That leaves me with the Yankees and Astros. The postseason pedigree and the price led me to Houston. I might bet something later, definitely no bet in the Astros/Tigers game.
Astros to win the AL Pennant (+375), 1*
Astros to win the World Series (+800), 1*
I lean the Mets in their series with Milwaukee, but the Brewers had strong success against them in the regular season. I was looking at the American League and the Astros are the team I think have the fewest questions. I don’t think anyone in the AL Central is going to make the World Series. And I’m kind of down on the Orioles. That leaves me with the Yankees and Astros. The postseason pedigree and the price led me to Houston. I might bet something later, definitely no bet in the Astros/Tigers game.
Padres -1.5 (+120), 1*
Astros to win series v Tigers (+160), 1*
Padres to win the NL pennant (+550), 1*
Padres to win game one and the series v Braves (+105), 1*
I really like the Padres in this series and to make a run. They only lost a few games fewer then the Dodgers, yet the Dodgers are priced as more then twice as likely to win the pennant and World Series. I think the Padres offense is going to have success in the postseason, starting with tonight. Let’s hope their start goes a bit smoother then Houston’s.
Speaking of the Astros, I still believe in them. I knew there was a chance they could lose today with Skubal on the mound. Detroit has two bullpen games lined up to try and close the series out. I don’t think they will find the same success that they did today with that approach. I happily will bet Houston at +160 to win two games at home against whatever the Tigers throw at them Tuesday and Wednesday. GL
Astros to win series v Tigers (+160), 1*
Padres to win the NL pennant (+550), 1*
Padres to win game one and the series v Braves (+105), 1*
I really like the Padres in this series and to make a run. They only lost a few games fewer then the Dodgers, yet the Dodgers are priced as more then twice as likely to win the pennant and World Series. I think the Padres offense is going to have success in the postseason, starting with tonight. Let’s hope their start goes a bit smoother then Houston’s.
Speaking of the Astros, I still believe in them. I knew there was a chance they could lose today with Skubal on the mound. Detroit has two bullpen games lined up to try and close the series out. I don’t think they will find the same success that they did today with that approach. I happily will bet Houston at +160 to win two games at home against whatever the Tigers throw at them Tuesday and Wednesday. GL
Yesterday: 1-0/YTD: 292-259, +29.55
October 2nd
Royals/Orioles over 7.5 (-102), 1*
Lugo has pitched 206 innings this year, 60 more then his career high. I don’t think you can count on him being dominant today. Eflin is a mid rotation arm being asked to pitch game 2 because Baltimore doesn’t have anyone better. He’s not really a number two. I think there might be an overreaction to the 1-0 game yesterday. Both teams threw their aces and they were excellent. That doesn’t mean these teams won’t generate offense against lesser pitchers. I’m willing to take a shot here at basically even money that we get 8 runs in this game.
Big win from the Padres. Not only did I win my runline bet, but I needed them to win game one to have a chance at hitting one of my futures. If they win this series, I would have made back the money I bet on them to win the pennant and picked up a unit of profit by them winning last night. Good luck today.
October 2nd
Royals/Orioles over 7.5 (-102), 1*
Lugo has pitched 206 innings this year, 60 more then his career high. I don’t think you can count on him being dominant today. Eflin is a mid rotation arm being asked to pitch game 2 because Baltimore doesn’t have anyone better. He’s not really a number two. I think there might be an overreaction to the 1-0 game yesterday. Both teams threw their aces and they were excellent. That doesn’t mean these teams won’t generate offense against lesser pitchers. I’m willing to take a shot here at basically even money that we get 8 runs in this game.
Big win from the Padres. Not only did I win my runline bet, but I needed them to win game one to have a chance at hitting one of my futures. If they win this series, I would have made back the money I bet on them to win the pennant and picked up a unit of profit by them winning last night. Good luck today.
Today: 1-4/YTD: 293-263, +26.58
My record includes my three losing futures on the Astros and my winning future on the Padres. I was wrong about Houston. You have to take shots in the futures market when you think the price is right. I was wrong to back Houston, but I don’t regret it. At least I was able to recoup some of my losses with the Padres coming through. The only future I still have alive is my Padres bet to win the pennant. Not sure if I will have a bet on the Mets game tomorrow. Might hold off until the divisional round.
My record includes my three losing futures on the Astros and my winning future on the Padres. I was wrong about Houston. You have to take shots in the futures market when you think the price is right. I was wrong to back Houston, but I don’t regret it. At least I was able to recoup some of my losses with the Padres coming through. The only future I still have alive is my Padres bet to win the pennant. Not sure if I will have a bet on the Mets game tomorrow. Might hold off until the divisional round.
October 7th
Tigers ML (-130), 1*
I am happy to back Skubal at a reasonable price. He’s the best pitcher in the American League. He carried that team like luggage for most of the season and dominated against Houston in the prior round. I think he should have success against a lesser Guardians lineup today. I lean the Royals today. They have the pitching advantage, although not as severe as the pitching advantage in the Tigers game. I also don’t feel great about the Yankees bullpen. I’m going to monitor that game and see if the Yankees keep taking money like they often do. GL
Tigers ML (-130), 1*
I am happy to back Skubal at a reasonable price. He’s the best pitcher in the American League. He carried that team like luggage for most of the season and dominated against Houston in the prior round. I think he should have success against a lesser Guardians lineup today. I lean the Royals today. They have the pitching advantage, although not as severe as the pitching advantage in the Tigers game. I also don’t feel great about the Yankees bullpen. I’m going to monitor that game and see if the Yankees keep taking money like they often do. GL
Futures
Angels under 72.5 (-110), 2*
Royals over 74.5 (-110), 2*
Diamondbacks over 84.5 (-110), 2*
Rays under 84.5 (-110), 2*
Tigers over 80.5 (-110), 2*
Reds over 81.5 (-110), 2*
Cardinals to win NL Central (+190), 2*
Reds to win NL Central (+350), 2*
Royals to win AL Central (+850), 2*
YTD: 299-267, +28.78
Forgot to update my win totals and futures from before the season. It would have been nice to hit one of my division bets, but I went 5-1 on my win totals which was nice. I will update my awards bets once they get announced.
Angels under 72.5 (-110), 2*
Royals over 74.5 (-110), 2*
Diamondbacks over 84.5 (-110), 2*
Rays under 84.5 (-110), 2*
Tigers over 80.5 (-110), 2*
Reds over 81.5 (-110), 2*
Cardinals to win NL Central (+190), 2*
Reds to win NL Central (+350), 2*
Royals to win AL Central (+850), 2*
YTD: 299-267, +28.78
Forgot to update my win totals and futures from before the season. It would have been nice to hit one of my division bets, but I went 5-1 on my win totals which was nice. I will update my awards bets once they get announced.
October 8th
Michael King over 5.5 strikeouts (+100), 1*
King has been really good at home. He was excellent in the previous round. I like the Padres -1.5, but I’m going to pass on that. I have the Padres to win the pennant. This is a game they should win tonight, especially coming home after all the emotions from game two. I will be disappointed already if they lose, I don’t need to have more riding on them. But I do like them on the runline. GL
Michael King over 5.5 strikeouts (+100), 1*
King has been really good at home. He was excellent in the previous round. I like the Padres -1.5, but I’m going to pass on that. I have the Padres to win the pennant. This is a game they should win tonight, especially coming home after all the emotions from game two. I will be disappointed already if they lose, I don’t need to have more riding on them. But I do like them on the runline. GL
YTD: 299-270, +25.78
October 13th
Mets to win series (+150), 1*
I’m going along for the ride in this series. This Mets team feels like the 2013 Red Sox. That team didn’t have a lot of stars, but they found a way. I’m also not sold on the Dodgers. They have made a lot of runs and come up short. I know they won in 2020, but there were some extenuating circumstances there. Just like the Lakers won in the bubble. I acknowledge them as champions, but I take something away for not having to travel or play in front of opposing fans. The Dodgers are deserving favorites and I’m not saying this price is wrong. But it has been a good year and I’m going to throw a unit on the Mets.
I included my losing Padres future in my record above. GL
October 13th
Mets to win series (+150), 1*
I’m going along for the ride in this series. This Mets team feels like the 2013 Red Sox. That team didn’t have a lot of stars, but they found a way. I’m also not sold on the Dodgers. They have made a lot of runs and come up short. I know they won in 2020, but there were some extenuating circumstances there. Just like the Lakers won in the bubble. I acknowledge them as champions, but I take something away for not having to travel or play in front of opposing fans. The Dodgers are deserving favorites and I’m not saying this price is wrong. But it has been a good year and I’m going to throw a unit on the Mets.
I included my losing Padres future in my record above. GL
