Yesterday: 5-0/YTD: 171-152, +15.32
Only three games today. I don’t like anything in the afternoon game. I lean Mets at first glance. Peterson pitched well against Washington last month and the Mets knocked Gore around. The Mets are playing well despite losing two of three to Houston, while Washington has gone cold after a nice run in early June. I will look at this game and the Brewers/Rockies game a little deeper when I have time. As of now, it’s a pass for today. After sweeping the board yesterday, I might just watch USA soccer and relax.
By the way, I bet three Wimbledon futures if there are any tennis fans out there. I took Pegula 20/1 on the women’s side. I have Tommy Paul 38/1 and Holger Rune 50/1 on the men’s side. These will not be graded, just throwing these out there.
Only three games today. I don’t like anything in the afternoon game. I lean Mets at first glance. Peterson pitched well against Washington last month and the Mets knocked Gore around. The Mets are playing well despite losing two of three to Houston, while Washington has gone cold after a nice run in early June. I will look at this game and the Brewers/Rockies game a little deeper when I have time. As of now, it’s a pass for today. After sweeping the board yesterday, I might just watch USA soccer and relax.
By the way, I bet three Wimbledon futures if there are any tennis fans out there. I took Pegula 20/1 on the women’s side. I have Tommy Paul 38/1 and Holger Rune 50/1 on the men’s side. These will not be graded, just throwing these out there.
Yesterday: 1-3/YTD: 173-158, +11.31
July 5th
Mets ML (+110), 1*
Mariners ML (-142), 1*
The Yankees/Red Sox number is fishy. Houck has been good all year long, he is going to be an all-star. The Red Sox have won four straight. The Yankees are playing the worst baseball of the season and are -140 favorites. I expect NY to start playing well again in the near future, but I would not lay -140 in this spot. The Red Sox bullpen will be a little short tonight after going 12 innings yesterday. And they have a team who is heavy on left-handed hitters, which can make things difficult against good lefties. I am sure all that is being factored into the line. But Boston is only four back of the Yankees. They took two of three from them two weeks ago. They have the clear starting pitching edge in this game. The value is on Boston, but I will pass. I might add one more later. GL
July 5th
Mets ML (+110), 1*
Mariners ML (-142), 1*
The Yankees/Red Sox number is fishy. Houck has been good all year long, he is going to be an all-star. The Red Sox have won four straight. The Yankees are playing the worst baseball of the season and are -140 favorites. I expect NY to start playing well again in the near future, but I would not lay -140 in this spot. The Red Sox bullpen will be a little short tonight after going 12 innings yesterday. And they have a team who is heavy on left-handed hitters, which can make things difficult against good lefties. I am sure all that is being factored into the line. But Boston is only four back of the Yankees. They took two of three from them two weeks ago. They have the clear starting pitching edge in this game. The value is on Boston, but I will pass. I might add one more later. GL
Awards
Skubal to win AL Cy Young (+220), 1*
Jackson Merrill to win NL rookie of the year (+360), 1*
Wyatt Langford to win AL rookie of the year (+230), 1*
I bet Crochet 40/1 in the beginning of June, which I posted here. I am betting Skubal as a hedge. I think those two are the most likely to win. They have been the best player on their teams, Burnes from Baltimore has not. Burnes has been very good, but Baltimore would still be good without him. We saw that last year. If Skubal wins, I still turn a profit, albeit a smaller one.
I think Langford is going to be the odds on favorite ahead of Gil very soon. I would bet him at 2/1 or better. We are seeing Gil regress recently and the truth is, he is somewhere in between his first 2.5 months and his last couple of starts.
I think it’s pretty clear the NL ROTY is between Skenes and Merrill. Jones from Pittsburgh got hurt. Ortiz from Milwaukee got hurt. I am taking the value with Merrill. He is an every day contributor on a team more likely to make the playoffs. There is going to be regression from Skenes, just like we saw from Gil and Imanaga.
Skubal to win AL Cy Young (+220), 1*
Jackson Merrill to win NL rookie of the year (+360), 1*
Wyatt Langford to win AL rookie of the year (+230), 1*
I bet Crochet 40/1 in the beginning of June, which I posted here. I am betting Skubal as a hedge. I think those two are the most likely to win. They have been the best player on their teams, Burnes from Baltimore has not. Burnes has been very good, but Baltimore would still be good without him. We saw that last year. If Skubal wins, I still turn a profit, albeit a smaller one.
I think Langford is going to be the odds on favorite ahead of Gil very soon. I would bet him at 2/1 or better. We are seeing Gil regress recently and the truth is, he is somewhere in between his first 2.5 months and his last couple of starts.
I think it’s pretty clear the NL ROTY is between Skenes and Merrill. Jones from Pittsburgh got hurt. Ortiz from Milwaukee got hurt. I am taking the value with Merrill. He is an every day contributor on a team more likely to make the playoffs. There is going to be regression from Skenes, just like we saw from Gil and Imanaga.
Red Sox ML (+164), 1*
Devers to hit a home run (+250), 1*
Devers over 1.5 total bases (-105), 1*
Devers over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI’s (-140), 1*
I don’t play too many props in baseball, but this stands out to me every time Cole faces the Red Sox. Devers is 12-38 against him with 7 home runs and 17 RBI’s. Devers was 0-4 with three strikeouts last night. Based on Cole not being in mid-season form and Devers success against him over a large sample, I am betting Devers several different ways.
Also, I think these teams are priced incorrectly again today. This time, I am going to bet it. Winckowski is a question mark for sure, but he was solid his last time out. Everyone in the Yankees lineup has limited exposure to him. Two thirds of the lineup are 0-1 or 0-3 against him in their career. The Yankees are starting Trevino behind the plate, who gave up nine stolen bases the last time he saw Boston. The Red Sox will absolutely try to run on him and Cole. Boston’s bullpen will be short again today after back to back extra inning wins. But I don’t agree with the price and will take a shot on the Red Sox.
Devers to hit a home run (+250), 1*
Devers over 1.5 total bases (-105), 1*
Devers over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI’s (-140), 1*
I don’t play too many props in baseball, but this stands out to me every time Cole faces the Red Sox. Devers is 12-38 against him with 7 home runs and 17 RBI’s. Devers was 0-4 with three strikeouts last night. Based on Cole not being in mid-season form and Devers success against him over a large sample, I am betting Devers several different ways.
Also, I think these teams are priced incorrectly again today. This time, I am going to bet it. Winckowski is a question mark for sure, but he was solid his last time out. Everyone in the Yankees lineup has limited exposure to him. Two thirds of the lineup are 0-1 or 0-3 against him in their career. The Yankees are starting Trevino behind the plate, who gave up nine stolen bases the last time he saw Boston. The Red Sox will absolutely try to run on him and Cole. Boston’s bullpen will be short again today after back to back extra inning wins. But I don’t agree with the price and will take a shot on the Red Sox.
Today: 2-2/YTD: 180-162, +16.16
The day started with a couple of duds, but the Royals and Brewers took care of business. No sweats today whatsoever. I’m not sure if +16 units is my high water mark for the season, but it’s close. Still a lot of season left, plenty of grinding still to be done. Smaller slate tomorrow, but there are a couple of day games. I will post any bets I have for the day in the morning.
The day started with a couple of duds, but the Royals and Brewers took care of business. No sweats today whatsoever. I’m not sure if +16 units is my high water mark for the season, but it’s close. Still a lot of season left, plenty of grinding still to be done. Smaller slate tomorrow, but there are a couple of day games. I will post any bets I have for the day in the morning.
