There are a couple angles I like playing in the nba that came up in the Warriors/Pelicans duplex. I like betting on a team the first game after they lose their best player. The rest of the team usually shows up that first game. They are happy to get more minutes and shot attempts and want to prove they can still be successful without their best guy. That’s why I bet the Warriors last night. I also like betting on teams who lost to a team and play them again in their next game. NBA players have pride. The Pels got smoked last night, they should show up today. Alvarado filling in at point guard makes me feel even better about it because he is a dog.
Yes both out. Jones hurt his shoulder in last night’s game. McCollum was a surprise. Feels like rest for something minor as opposed to something serious. But that’s why the line is up to 3/3.5. Also, Wiggins could return tonight for the Warriors. My plan is to wait until everyone’s health status for the game is known and bet the Pelicans. I will update once I know.
Grizzlies +6 (-108), 1*
Spurs -1 (-110), 1*
I know the Grizz are a little shorthanded, but the line reflects that. The Bucks have not been any better then Memphis has so far. The Giannis trade rumors are already swirling today. These are two teams who haven’t gotten it going yet. I will take the six with the home team. Speaking of teams who stink, hello Utah. I could be wrong, but I don’t think Markannen is going to play tonight with a back issue. Even if he does, I would still bet the Spurs. You can wait to find out if he is definitively playing so you get the fair line. If he is playing, Utah will probably be a one point favorite. If he doesn’t, the Spurs will probably go to -2 or maybe -3. I lean Powell’s points prop over in the Clippers game. There are a lot of shots up for grabs on that team without Kawhi and George and I think he is going to try and take a lot of those. He attempted 22 shots last night, which was four more then Harden. I don’t know if he shoots 20+ times again tonight, but he won’t be shy. GL
Spurs -1 (-110), 1*
I know the Grizz are a little shorthanded, but the line reflects that. The Bucks have not been any better then Memphis has so far. The Giannis trade rumors are already swirling today. These are two teams who haven’t gotten it going yet. I will take the six with the home team. Speaking of teams who stink, hello Utah. I could be wrong, but I don’t think Markannen is going to play tonight with a back issue. Even if he does, I would still bet the Spurs. You can wait to find out if he is definitively playing so you get the fair line. If he is playing, Utah will probably be a one point favorite. If he doesn’t, the Spurs will probably go to -2 or maybe -3. I lean Powell’s points prop over in the Clippers game. There are a lot of shots up for grabs on that team without Kawhi and George and I think he is going to try and take a lot of those. He attempted 22 shots last night, which was four more then Harden. I don’t know if he shoots 20+ times again tonight, but he won’t be shy. GL
Today: 2-1/YTD: 17-16, -0.5
Pretty disappointing 2-1 night considering the Clippers were up 18 at the half and didn’t cover as 4.5 point dogs. Phoenix made 15 straight shots in the third quarter and all of a sudden it was a one possession game. Happy to have a winning night, but I thought these were going to be three easy winners when the Spurs game ended and the Clippers were up 18. Instead, I am left with a bitter taste in my mouth.
Pretty disappointing 2-1 night considering the Clippers were up 18 at the half and didn’t cover as 4.5 point dogs. Phoenix made 15 straight shots in the third quarter and all of a sudden it was a one possession game. Happy to have a winning night, but I thought these were going to be three easy winners when the Spurs game ended and the Clippers were up 18. Instead, I am left with a bitter taste in my mouth.
November 1st
Magic +7.5 (-115), 1*
Wolves -4 (-110), 1*
I don’t love that Wendell Carter is a late scratch for the Magic, but they have strong depth on their team. They can just plug in one of the multiple Wagner’s they have. This is the spot I often advocate for. A team’s best player goes down, we bet them in their first game without him. We got there with the Warriors when Curry went down. Let’s get there again. Sorry for the late post. Busy day. GL
Magic +7.5 (-115), 1*
Wolves -4 (-110), 1*
I don’t love that Wendell Carter is a late scratch for the Magic, but they have strong depth on their team. They can just plug in one of the multiple Wagner’s they have. This is the spot I often advocate for. A team’s best player goes down, we bet them in their first game without him. We got there with the Warriors when Curry went down. Let’s get there again. Sorry for the late post. Busy day. GL
Yesterday: 0-2/YTD: 17-18, -2.75
November 2nd
Spurs +3.5 (-110), 1*
Bucks -1.5 (-110), 1*
Nuggets -10.5 (-110), 1*
Clippers +5.5 (-110), 1*
There are a couple home teams I would like to bet, I just can’t quite get there. I would love to bet the Hornets in a rematch spot. But they got reckless in that fourth quarter against Boston and the Celtics weren’t happy about it. I think it was likely the Celtics would have sleptwalked a bit through today’s game if the multiple flagrant fouls and ejections did not happen. Maybe I will bet Charlotte if Miller returns. Right now it’s a pass. The other one is Toronto. I would love to play against Sacramento playing the second of a back to back on the road. They were in Atlanta last night. Not a great spot for them. Unfortunately, Toronto is still without Barnes, Quickley, Brown and Olynyk. And they also played last night. Hard to bet them on a back to back when they are shorthanded and the Kings are fully loaded. GL
November 2nd
Spurs +3.5 (-110), 1*
Bucks -1.5 (-110), 1*
Nuggets -10.5 (-110), 1*
Clippers +5.5 (-110), 1*
There are a couple home teams I would like to bet, I just can’t quite get there. I would love to bet the Hornets in a rematch spot. But they got reckless in that fourth quarter against Boston and the Celtics weren’t happy about it. I think it was likely the Celtics would have sleptwalked a bit through today’s game if the multiple flagrant fouls and ejections did not happen. Maybe I will bet Charlotte if Miller returns. Right now it’s a pass. The other one is Toronto. I would love to play against Sacramento playing the second of a back to back on the road. They were in Atlanta last night. Not a great spot for them. Unfortunately, Toronto is still without Barnes, Quickley, Brown and Olynyk. And they also played last night. Hard to bet them on a back to back when they are shorthanded and the Kings are fully loaded. GL
Thank god I got 10.5 in that Hornets game. Idk what the heck I just watched. They were down 9 with 20 seconds left and were playing full court defense, including fouling Tatum. He made one free throw and Boston gave Charlotte an uncontested layup to presumably end the game. Nope, Charlotte fouled Tatum again with 15 seconds left. He made both, Charlotte bricked a three and thankfully didn’t foul down 10. I have watched a lot of basketball in my life and I have never seen a team play that way at the end of a game based on the score and time remaining. Charlotte is going nowhere. Their only hope is to be horrible, draft the best forward or center to compliment Ball and Miller and hope that guy is a stud. Otherwise that organization will be in purgatory for a long time. That was crazy. At least they covered. If you bet them +10, you got screwed.
